Snapshot briefing
No clear majority in the September 27 forecast
The two core blocs remain short of 61. Threshold uncertainty changes the picture more than the one-seat lead between the largest parties.
Read article← Back to forecastView the numbers → A few numbers.
Behind the numbers
Articles & explainers
What does a 30% chance mean? Why do small parties matter? Clear guides to the polls, the 3.25% entry threshold, and the race to 61 seats.
ALONGSIDE THE FORECAST
Snapshot briefing
This article explains the September 27 forecast.
Start here · The To 120 reading room
A few numbers.
A whole election.
One parliament. A majority of 61. A threshold that changes everything. Five guides to understanding what the numbers really mean.
Explore all articlesAbout the project
About To 120
An independent guide to Israeli elections: what we do, why we do it, and the question behind every number.
The electoral system
One District, 120 Seats
How Israel actually elects a Knesset — and why almost everything you know about elections doesn’t apply.
Coalition arithmetic
Why We Forecast the Chance of 61
Israeli elections choose a parliament. The parliament chooses a government — and those are different contests.
The electoral threshold
The 3.25% Cliff
A fraction of a percentage point can take a party from four seats to zero — and change who can govern.
Reading a forecast
What a 30% Chance Means, and What It Doesn’t
How to read a probabilistic forecast, and how to judge one afterward.
All articles
05About the project
About To 120
An independent guide to Israeli elections: what we do, why we do it, and the question behind every number.
Read articleThe electoral system
One District, 120 Seats
How Israel actually elects a Knesset — and why almost everything you know about elections doesn’t apply.
Read articleThe electoral threshold
The 3.25% Cliff
A fraction of a percentage point can take a party from four seats to zero — and change who can govern.
Read articleReading a forecast
What a 30% Chance Means, and What It Doesn’t
How to read a probabilistic forecast, and how to judge one afterward.
Read articleCoalition arithmetic
Why We Forecast the Chance of 61
Israeli elections choose a parliament. The parliament chooses a government — and those are different contests.
Read article