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Behind the numbers
What does a 30% chance mean? Why do small parties matter? Clear guides to the polls, the 3.25% entry threshold, and the race to 61 seats.
ALONGSIDE THE FORECAST
After months of polls, the final forecast leaves the central question unresolved. Neither the Netanyahu-aligned bloc nor the Zionist Opposition reaches 61 seats in either approach's central estimate. The campaign is ending; the arithmetic still offers no straightforward majority.
Read articleThis article explains the October 26 forecast.
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One parliament. A majority of 61. A threshold that changes everything. Five guides to understanding what the numbers really mean.
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Four additional seat polls enter the forecast. Both core blocs remain short of 61, with only small changes in their majority chances since October 23.
Read articleFive official poll reports replace earlier accounts of the same surveys. Netanyahu’s majority chance rises from the previous day, while both core blocs remain short of 61.
Read articleTen new surveys and five official poll reports update the race. Neither core bloc reaches a majority in the central forecast, while the smaller parties remain consequential.
Read articleWalla’s official poll report adds a complete vote-percentage table. The forecast shifts slightly, while both core blocs remain short of 61 seats.
Read articleThree new seat polls and fuller vote-share reports update the picture. The numbers move slightly toward the opposition, while both core blocs remain below 61 seats in the central forecast.
Read articleThe full Maariv and i24NEWS poll reports update the forecast. Neither core bloc reaches 61 seats in the central result, and the smaller parties remain important.
Read articleThe gap between the blocs has narrowed, and small parties could determine the result. A look at the race, threshold chances and the evidence behind the forecast.
Read articleNew seat polls nudge the forecast, but neither core bloc looks close to a likely majority. What moved since yesterday, and why the model’s overall assessment remains steady.
Read articleThe latest forecast adds official poll disclosures. Compare each bloc’s majority chance in the two approaches and see what changed in the evidence.
Read articleThe new forecast puts both core blocs below a majority. See how the two approaches differ and which new seat polls entered the calculation.
Read articleThe two core blocs remain short of 61. Threshold uncertainty changes the picture more than the one-seat lead between the largest parties.
Read articleAn independent guide to Israeli elections: what we do, why we do it, and the question behind every number.
Read articleHow Israel actually elects a Knesset — and why almost everything you know about elections doesn’t apply.
Read articleA fraction of a percentage point can take a party from four seats to zero — and change who can govern.
Read articleHow to read a probabilistic forecast, and how to judge one afterward.
Read articleIsraeli elections choose a parliament. The parliament chooses a government — and those are different contests.
Read article