Two days before the October 27 election, four additional seat polls enter the forecast. The update uses information available by 2:58 p.m. Israel time on October 25. The latest polls were published on October 23. Neither core bloc reaches 61 seats in the central forecast, and the overall picture has changed little since our previous update.
What are the majority chances?
| Bloc | Vote Share Only | Vote and Seat Fusion |
|---|---|---|
| Netanyahu-aligned | 8.1% | 5.9% |
| Zionist Opposition | 1.3% | 0.5% |
| Zionist Opposition + Arab lists | 76.0% | 81.9% |
Vote Share Only uses polls reporting each party’s share of the vote. Vote and Seat Fusion also uses additional seat polls, giving more weight to simulated results that fit them. Both methods use the same 100,000 simulated election results.
The Netanyahu-aligned bloc averages 54.5 seats in Vote Share Only and 54.6 in Fusion. Zionist Opposition averages 51.5 in both. Adding Ra’am and the Joint List to Beyachad, Yashar!, Yisrael Beiteinu and The Democrats brings the averages to 63.5 and 63.9.
Has the model changed its view of the race?
Compared with the October 23 forecast, Netanyahu’s majority chance remains 8.1% when rounded to one decimal place in Vote Share Only, and slips from 6.2% to 5.9% in Fusion. Zionist Opposition stays at 1.3% and 0.5%. With the Arab lists, the chances rise slightly from 75.9% to 76.0% and from 81.0% to 81.9%.
These are small movements. The model continues to show a difficult path to a majority for either core bloc on its own. The broader grouping with the Arab lists remains above 61 in the central forecast. Explore the changes on the timeline.
Which polls were added?
The update adds seat polls from Channel 12 / Midgam, Channel 13’s polling consortium, i24NEWS / Direct Polls and Kan / Kantar. The Kan figures are drawn from cited reports while the primary source is pending. The source table keeps each poll’s publication date, pollster and links available for inspection.
No new national vote-percentage table was added, and the model’s formulas have not changed. Inspect the polls and their use in the forecast.
What does it mean for the parties?
Both methods now give the same whole-seat headlines: Likud 24, Yashar! 23, Beyachad 13, The Democrats 9, Ra’am 5 and Religious Zionism–Zehut 6. Shas, United Torah Judaism, Otzma Yehudit, Yisrael Beiteinu and the Joint List each have 8. The party headlines add up to 120 seats in each method.
Compare the party forecasts, follow threshold chances, or download the polls, forecast outputs and all simulation draws. Earlier forecasts and their articles remain available. Read how the model works.