13 days until the election, the October 14 forecast includes information available by 7:29 a.m. Israel time. Three new seat polls and the full vote-share reports from Kan and Channel 12 bring fresh evidence into the model. Neither the Netanyahu-aligned bloc nor Zionist Opposition reaches 61 seats in the central forecast.
What are the chances of 61 seats?
| Grouping | Vote Share Only | Vote and Seat Fusion |
|---|---|---|
| Netanyahu-aligned bloc | 8.5% | 7.0% |
| Zionist Opposition | 6.6% | 2.9% |
| Zionist Opposition plus Arab lists | 78.7% | 82.2% |
Vote Share Only uses polls reporting vote percentages. Vote and Seat Fusion also brings in additional seat polls, giving more weight to simulated results that fit that evidence. Both use the same 100,000 simulated election results.
The Netanyahu-aligned bloc averages 53.7 seats in Vote Share Only and 54.3 in Fusion. Zionist Opposition averages 53.3 and 52.8. Adding Ra’am and the Joint List to Beyachad, Yashar!, Yisrael Beiteinu and The Democrats brings the averages to 64.5 and 64.4.
Since the October 11 update, Netanyahu’s majority chance has fallen from 10.5% to 8.5% in Vote Share Only and from 8.4% to 7.0% in Fusion. Zionist Opposition’s chance has risen from 6.2% to 6.6% and from 2.8% to 2.9%. The opposition-plus-Arab-lists grouping rises from 76.0% to 78.7% and from 80.8% to 82.2%. The movement favors the opposition, but the broader assessment holds: either core bloc faces a difficult route to a majority on its own. Explore the daily trends.
What changed in the polling evidence?
The update adds seat polls from i24NEWS / Direct Polls, Walla / Lazar Research, and Channel 16 / Maagar Mochot, reported by Srugim. These are three additional surveys.
The official election-committee reports for Kan / Kantar and Channel 12 / Midgam add complete national vote-percentage tables from October 11 and 12. They replace the earlier records of the same polls. Once their vote percentages enter Vote Share Only, their seat figures are not counted again as additional Fusion evidence. The published percentage tables are used without another rescaling, and the model’s formulas are unchanged.
Explore the party picture
Likud’s headline stays at 24 seats in Vote Share Only and 25 in Fusion. Yashar! has 24 and 23, respectively; Beyachad has 12 and The Democrats 10 in both methods. The smaller lists’ chances of passing the threshold remain important to the distribution of seats.
See every party’s forecast, compare threshold chances, or inspect the polling evidence. The data page contains inputs and outputs in CSV and JSON, including all 100,000 current simulations. Read how the model works.