The October 1 forecast uses polling information available by 9:12 p.m. Israel time. Neither the Netanyahu-aligned bloc nor the Zionist Opposition reaches 61 seats in the central forecast. The forecast is an estimate of possible seat totals, not a prediction that a government will form.
Two ways to read the polls
Vote Share Only uses polls that report parties’ shares of the vote. It gives the Netanyahu-aligned bloc a 10.0% chance of at least 61 seats and the Zionist Opposition a 7.4% chance. Their average seat totals across the simulations are 53.8 and 53.4, respectively.
Vote and Seat Fusion also takes account of additional polls that report seats. It gives the two blocs 8.9% and 3.5% chances, with average seat totals of 54.5 and 53.1. Both approaches use the same 100,000 simulated election results; Fusion gives more weight to results that better fit the additional seat polls. Compare the approaches in the forecast.
If we add the Arab lists to the Zionist Opposition for seat arithmetic, the combined group has a 76.8% chance of 61 seats in Vote Share Only and 80.3% in Fusion. This calculation does not assume these parties would govern together. All three chances assume that no untracked list crosses the electoral threshold.
What entered the October 1 update?
The newly recorded evidence consists of seat figures from three surveys: Channel 13 / TheMadad–Rosner, published September 30; Zman Yisrael / Yossi Tatika, published October 1; and i24NEWS / Direct Polls, also published October 1. These enter the additional seat-poll side of Fusion. The Channel 13 figures come from a cited secondary report; the other two come from the publishers. All three are pending official election-committee PDFs.
Earlier dated points on the chart are reconstructions made later using the information available on each date. A later package can revise them. The latest date, October 1, is the issued forecast in this package.
Check the numbers
The headline seat figures are one coherent division of 120 seats: Likud 24, Yashar! 24 in Vote Share Only or 23 in Fusion, Beyachad 13, and the Democrats 10. A party with a headline of zero can still have a chance of crossing the 3.25% threshold. Average bloc seats are calculated across simulations, so they need not match the sum of headline party seats.
Explore every party and its threshold chance, check the poll records and how they were used, or download the CSV and JSON data. The methodology explains the simulations, seat allocation and 80% ranges.