13 days to the election, the October 14 forecast now includes Walla/Lazar’s full report to the election committee. The update uses information available by 4:36 p.m. Israel time. The figures change a little, but the overall picture holds: neither the Netanyahu-aligned bloc nor Zionist Opposition reaches 61 seats in the central forecast.
What are the majority chances?
| Bloc | Vote Share Only | Vote and Seat Fusion |
|---|---|---|
| Netanyahu-aligned | 8.2% | 6.8% |
| Zionist Opposition | 6.6% | 2.8% |
| Zionist Opposition + Arab lists | 78.9% | 82.2% |
Vote Share Only uses polls reporting each party’s share of the vote. Vote and Seat Fusion also uses additional seat polls, giving more weight to simulated results that fit them. Both methods use the same 100,000 simulated election results.
The Netanyahu-aligned bloc averages 53.6 seats in Vote Share Only and 54.2 in Fusion. Zionist Opposition averages 53.3 and 52.8. Adding Ra’am and the Joint List to Beyachad, Yashar!, Yisrael Beiteinu and The Democrats brings the averages to 64.5 and 64.4.
Since the October 11 update, Netanyahu’s majority chance has fallen from 10.5% to 8.2% in Vote Share Only and from 8.4% to 6.8% in Fusion. Zionist Opposition’s chance moves from 6.2% to 6.6% in Vote Share Only and stays at 2.8% when rounded in Fusion. The grouping with the Arab lists rises from 76.0% to 78.9% and from 80.8% to 82.2%. The model still sees a difficult route to a majority for either core bloc on its own. Explore the daily trends.
What did the official report add?
The election committee report for Walla / Lazar Research gives the complete national vote-percentage table for the poll published on October 13. It surveyed 601 adult citizens on October 12. The table covers 16 party choices and totals 100%, so the percentages are used as published.
This is the same survey already included in the earlier October 14 update. The official report replaces that record and adds its vote percentages to Vote Share Only. Its seats are then removed from the additional Fusion polls, so the survey contributes once. The model’s formulas stay the same.
What changes for the parties?
Likud has 24 headline seats in both methods; Fusion previously showed 25. Yashar! has 24 in Vote Share Only and 23 in Fusion. Beyachad has 12, The Democrats 10, and Ra’am 5 in both. The Joint List has 7 and 8, respectively. Each method’s party forecasts add up to 120 seats.
Ra’am’s chance of passing the threshold is 68.2% in Vote Share Only and 73.6% in Fusion. Amcha Yisrael is at 26.5% and 23.3%; Reservists–Economic at 28.7% and 24.2%. These small lists continue to matter to the distribution of seats.
See every party’s forecast, compare threshold chances, or inspect the polling evidence. The data page contains the updated inputs and outputs in CSV and JSON, including all 100,000 simulations. The earlier October 14 package also remains available. Read how the model works.