We are three weeks minus one day from the election, a good moment to pause and take stock. Recent polls point to the Netanyahu-aligned bloc gaining ground at the expense of Eisenkot’s bloc, the Zionist Opposition. Our model reflects that movement, although it is more cautious about its strength. The narrowing gap between the blocs can be seen in the chart of their chances of reaching a 61-seat majority.
The figures and charts in this article use Vote Share Only.
Oct 7, 2026
- Netanyahu-aligned bloc: 7.9%
- Zionist Opposition: 7.9%
- Zionist Opposition plus Arab lists: 79.8%
Move across the graph or drag with a finger. Keyboard users can use the arrow keys.
Explore the full forecast →We waited an extra day for the full reports from Midgam (Channel 12) and Kantar (Kan News), which include vote percentages as well as seat projections. These are two important polling firms that consistently provide clear, transparent vote-share figures. Our model relies primarily on vote shares rather than seat projections. This is its main innovation and the main reason we think our chances of forecasting the election successfully are better than those of earlier attempts.
Read more about vote-share polls and seat projections. You can inspect the official Kantar report and Midgam report.
The two latest polls are encouraging for the Zionist Opposition. It is too early to say whether they mark a reversal and a return toward the picture of a few weeks ago, or a settling of the race into a tie between the blocs. On September 17, the Zionist Opposition had a 26.6% chance of reaching 61 seats, compared with 7.9% today.
What is happening around the electoral threshold?
Attention naturally turns to parties at risk of failing to enter the Knesset. In the 2022 election for the 25th Knesset, Netanyahu-aligned parties received about 48.4% of the vote but won 64 seats. Meretz and Balad fell below the electoral threshold, so their votes did not participate in allocating seats. This is an important part of the explanation for the gap between the vote share and the parliamentary result. How the threshold changes the seat picture.
A particular focus is Ofer Winter’s Amcha Yisrael. In recent weeks, our model gave the new right-wing party a growing chance of crossing the threshold, but it remained below 50% — the probability of heads in a coin toss. It was about 45% on October 4. The latest polls are less encouraging: Kantar reports 2.6%, Midgam 1.5%. Taking those figures into account, the model forecasts 2.8% of the vote for Winter’s party, with a 29.1% chance of crossing the threshold.
Oct 7, 2026
- Amcha Yisrael: 2.8% · Chance of entry: 29.1%
Move across the graph or drag with a finger. Keyboard users can use the arrow keys. The shaded band shows the central 80% range of simulated vote shares.
Explore the full forecast →The list with more reason to welcome those polls is Reservists–Economic, also known by its leaders’ names, Zelicha–Hendel. Both polls gave it 3.4% of the vote (4 seats). Our model remains more cautious, forecasting 2.7% of the vote and a 27.7% chance of crossing the threshold.
Oct 7, 2026
- Reservists–Economic: 2.7% · Chance of entry: 27.7%
Move across the graph or drag with a finger. Keyboard users can use the arrow keys. The shaded band shows the central 80% range of simulated vote shares.
Explore the full forecast →Ra’am continues its gradual strengthening: 4.1% support, 5 seats, and a 66.9% chance of crossing the threshold.
Oct 7, 2026
- Raam: 4.1% · Chance of entry: 66.9%
Move across the graph or drag with a finger. Keyboard users can use the arrow keys. The shaded band shows the central 80% range of simulated vote shares.
Explore the full forecast →For each party, the model considers how much the latest polls tell us about a change in support, and how much of the variation could be polling noise — for example, movement within the sampling margin of error. In plain language, it asks: “Is there more evidence supporting a reversal?” For Zelicha–Hendel, it continues to draw on older polls and gives the new polls limited weight. You can inspect those poll weights in the model data.
Still well below the threshold in this update: Blue and White (Gantz) has a 1.9% chance of crossing, and Haredi Public a 1.2% chance.
Explore every party’s forecast, see the majority chances, or download the polling inputs, results and simulations. You can also compare Vote and Seat Fusion, which additionally uses seat polls.