The October 6 update uses information available by 2:50 p.m. Israel time. Two newer seat polls enter the calculation, but the broad picture holds: neither the Netanyahu-aligned bloc nor the Zionist Opposition reaches 61 seats in the central forecast. The race remains close between the two core blocs, with a difficult path to a majority for either one alone.
Where does the race stand?
| Grouping | Vote Share Only: chance of 61+ | Vote and Seat Fusion: chance of 61+ |
|---|---|---|
| Netanyahu-aligned bloc | 10.1% | 8.1% |
| Zionist Opposition | 6.7% | 3.1% |
| Zionist Opposition plus Arab lists | 77.8% | 81.7% |
Vote Share Only uses polls reporting vote percentages. Vote and Seat Fusion starts with the same 100,000 simulated election results, then gives more weight to results that also fit additional seat polls. The two approaches put the Netanyahu-aligned bloc at an average of 53.9 and 54.4 seats, respectively. The Zionist Opposition averages 53.2 and 53.0.
The third row adds Ra’am and the Joint List to Beyachad, Yashar!, Yisrael Beiteinu and The Democrats. It is a count of possible seats, not an assumption that those parties would agree to govern together. Its average is 64.4 seats in both approaches. These percentages describe reaching 61 seats, not forming a government.
A shift in the numbers, not a change in the overall assessment
Compared with the forecast actually published on October 5, Netanyahu’s majority chance falls from 12.3% to 10.1% in Vote Share Only and from 10.7% to 8.1% in Fusion. The Zionist Opposition’s rises from 4.9% to 6.7% and from 2.2% to 3.1%. The combined opposition-and-Arab-list grouping also rises, from 74.3% to 77.8% and from 77.7% to 81.7%.
That is a modest shift toward the opposition compared with yesterday’s publication, not evidence of a decisive break in the race. The central party forecast now gives Likud 24 seats and Yashar! 24, compared with 25 and 23 yesterday; Beyachad stays at 12 and The Democrats at 10. Both core blocs still have a low chance of reaching 61 on their own. The model has adjusted its numbers while retaining that central assessment.
There is a useful distinction when reading the trend chart: today’s package also recalculates earlier dates. Within that series, the October 5-to-6 Vote Share Only chances are almost flat: 10.0% to 10.1% for Netanyahu and 6.6% to 6.7% for the Zionist Opposition. Fusion moves from 9.0% to 8.1% and 3.0% to 3.1%, respectively. This looks more like small daily movement than a sudden turn. The reconstructed October 5 uses 20,000 simulations; yesterday’s original publication used 100,000 and remains available separately. Small differences should not be read as proof of a new political trend.
What changed in the evidence—and what did not?
The update adds Kan News / Kantar’s October 4 poll and the October 5 Channel 12 / Midgam poll, reported by Israel National News, as additional seat evidence. Neither supplies a new complete vote-share table for this release. The latest poll used in the vote-share calculation remains Maariv / Lazar Research, published October 2.
The model’s formulas and settings are unchanged. Fusion can respond to the additional seat polls; movement in Vote Share Only should not be attributed to a new vote-share poll. The new seat figures were collected on October 6 and do not enter earlier dates in today’s reconstructed series.
The source capture could not verify a fresh Central Elections Committee disclosure list or new official PDFs. The two new polls are therefore marked as awaiting official-document verification. Missing party figures stay unknown, and partial vote percentages are not used as if they were a complete poll. Check the sources and their role in the forecast.
Explore the uncertainty
See every party’s seats, vote share and chance of entering parliament. The whole-seat headlines add to 120; bloc averages instead average seats across simulated results. An 80% party seat range describes the simulations in which the party wins representation, with zero shown separately where supplied. A zero-seat headline can still sit alongside a nonzero chance of passing the threshold.
The forecast assumes that no other list outside the model crosses the threshold. Earlier chart dates are reconstructions using information available at the time. Download the original packages, poll inputs and simulations, or read how the forecast works.