Rewind three Israeli elections. Compare two forecast approaches, follow each bloc’s chance of a majority, and see where the final predictions met reality.
THE MAJORITY PICTURE · 1 Nov
Netanyahu-aligned73.1%
Zionist non-Netanyahu grouping1.2%
Zionist Anti-Bibi + Ra'am5.5%
Chance of 61+ seats in each stated scenario
FINAL PREDICTION
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Netanyahu-aligned73.1%
Zionist non-Netanyahu grouping1.2%
Zionist Anti-Bibi + Ra'am5.5%
BLOC MAJORITY PROBABILITIES · Vote Share Only
What are the chances of reaching 61?
10,000simulated seat outcomes per available snapshot1 Nov · Baseline
The chance that the listed parties win at least 61 seats together. This counts their seats under the model’s assumptions; it does not predict whether they would agree to form a government. We show selected groupings, not every possible combination. Vote and Seat Fusion gives different weights to the same 10,000 simulated election results.
THE DAILY MAJORITY RACE
How the odds moved
Scale 0–80% · move the cursor or drag to choose a date
* About 80% of simulated seat outcomes fall in this range, from the 10th to the 90th percentile.
Available dates · dotted line = 50% · dot = selected date
How parties moving together changes the result: 58.3%–66.9%
These results test different assumptions about how parties’ support rises or falls together. They are separate from the main forecast, not a range of likely outcomes, and the main forecast may fall outside them.
Parties in this scenario (5)
Jewish Home · Likud · Religious Zionism and Otzma Yehudit · Shas · United Torah Judaism
SCENARIO 02
Zionist non-Netanyahu grouping
1.2%chance of 61+ seats
50.6 average seats45–56 80% seat interval
Available dates · dotted line = 50% · dot = selected date
How parties moving together changes the result: 2.6%–7.1%
These results test different assumptions about how parties’ support rises or falls together. They are separate from the main forecast, not a range of likely outcomes, and the main forecast may fall outside them.
Available dates · dotted line = 50% · dot = selected date
How parties moving together changes the result: 9.4%–21.7%
These results test different assumptions about how parties’ support rises or falls together. They are separate from the main forecast, not a range of likely outcomes, and the main forecast may fall outside them.
Assumptions move this probability by at least 10 percentage points.
These groups describe parts of the political landscape; they are not extra majority scenarios. Their ranges count seats from the same simulated elections together, rather than adding each party’s separate range.
Anti-Bibi Right Zionist
5.4 average seats
80% interval: 0–8
Yisrael Beiteinu
Arab / non-Zionist lists
5.9 average seats
80% interval: 0–12
Balad · Hadash-Ta'al · Ra'am
Center
37.4 average seats
80% interval: 33–42
National Unity · Yesh Atid
Haredi
15.4 average seats
80% interval: 12–19
Shas · United Torah Judaism
Left Zionist
7.7 average seats
80% interval: 0–13
Labor · Meretz
Pro-Bibi Right Zionist
48.1 average seats
80% interval: 43–54
Jewish Home · Likud · Religious Zionism and Otzma Yehudit
FOLLOW THE CAMPAIGN · Vote Share Only
The road to election day
Select parties to compare. Move across the chart or drag with a finger to choose a day.
1 NovLikud32Yesh Atid25Religious Zionism and Otzma Yehudit13
Line: headline seats · ◆ Actual result. Gaps mean the party or forecast is unavailable. Uncertainty and threshold probabilities appear below.
PARTY FORECASTS · Vote Share Only
The final call. The actual result.
PARTIES FORECAST TO WIN SEATS11
13 parties in this date’s lineup
MEAN ABSOLUTE SEAT ERROR1.08 seats
13 comparable parties
K25 Vote Share Only forecast on 2022-11-01. Difference is forecast minus actual. Ranges cover the 10th–90th percentiles.
Party / uncertainty
SeatsForecast / actual
DifferenceSeats
Likud
80% range: 30-37Above threshold: 100.0%
32 / 32
0
Yesh Atid
80% range: 23-28Above threshold: 100.0%
25 / 24
+1
Religious Zionism and Otzma Yehudit
80% range: 11-17Above threshold: 100.0%
13 / 14
-1
National Unity
80% range: 9-15Above threshold: 100.0%
11 / 12
-1
Shas
80% range: 6-11Above threshold: >99.9%
8 / 11
-3
United Torah Judaism
80% range: 5-9Above threshold: 97.9%
7 / 7
0
Yisrael Beiteinu
80% range: 0-8Above threshold: 87.3%
6 / 6
0
Labor
80% range: 0, 4-8 · if representedAbove threshold: 71.4%
5 / 4
+1
Meretz
80% range: 0, 4-8 · if representedAbove threshold: 62.3%
5 / 0
+5
Hadash-Ta'al
80% range: 0, 4-7 · if representedAbove threshold: 48.4%
4 / 5
-1
Ra'am
80% range: 0, 4-7 · if representedAbove threshold: 50.6%
4 / 5
-1
Balad
80% range: 0, 4-10 · if representedAbove threshold: 12.4%
0 / 0
0
Jewish Home
80% range: 0, 4-12 · if representedAbove threshold: 14.5%
0 / 0
0
Bar = headline forecast · marker = actual. Each available headline totals 120 seats. “0, x–y” means zero seats remains possible; x–y is the 80% range conditional on representation. It is not a continuous interval.
POLLS AND METHODS
The evidence behind this forecast
VOTE-SHARE POLLS39
Polls informing the vote-share forecast
SEAT-POLL RESULTS—
Used only by Vote and Seat Fusion
How are polls counted?
Vote-share polls count distinct surveys used for Vote Share Only. Seat-poll results are the seat-based figures supplied to Vote and Seat Fusion; several results can come from one poll. The groups may overlap, so adding them would not give a reliable number of unique polls. The export does not identify pollsters for each day.
DOWNLOADABLE DATA, VISIBLE LIMITS
Inspect the evidence.
V7 attachment · 183 calendar dates · 181 available snapshots per approach · 13 frozen-horizon parity checks. Vote Share Only is the baseline; Vote and Seat Fusion is an experimental comparison. Exact dependence sensitivity is supplied only for the final Vote Share Only snapshots.