Four days before the October 27 election, the latest forecast includes five newly verified official poll reports. The update uses information available by 5:17 p.m. Israel time on October 23. Netanyahu’s chance of a majority is higher than in the previous day’s forecast, but neither core bloc reaches 61 seats in the central forecast.
What are the majority chances?
| Bloc | Vote Share Only | Vote and Seat Fusion |
|---|---|---|
| Netanyahu-aligned | 8.1% | 6.2% |
| Zionist Opposition | 1.3% | 0.5% |
| Zionist Opposition + Arab lists | 75.9% | 81.0% |
Vote Share Only uses polls reporting each party’s share of the vote. Vote and Seat Fusion also uses additional seat polls, giving more weight to simulated results that fit them. Both methods use the same 100,000 simulated election results.
The Netanyahu-aligned bloc averages 54.5 seats in Vote Share Only and 54.7 in Fusion. Zionist Opposition averages 51.5 and 51.4. Adding Ra’am and the Joint List to Beyachad, Yashar!, Yisrael Beiteinu and The Democrats brings the averages to 63.5 and 63.8.
What has changed since the previous update?
Compared with the October 22 forecast, Netanyahu’s majority chance rises from 6.3% to 8.1% in Vote Share Only and from 5.3% to 6.2% in Fusion. Zionist Opposition falls from 2.7% to 1.3% and from 1.0% to 0.5%. The grouping with the Arab lists falls from 79.7% to 75.9% and from 83.6% to 81.0%.
The movement favours Netanyahu’s bloc, while the broader picture remains similar: both core blocs face a difficult path to a majority on their own. Compare the dates on the graph.
What did the official reports add?
This revision replaces earlier reports of five existing surveys with their official disclosures to the election committee. The replacements add no new independent surveys. They cover Channel 14 / Next Data, Walla / Lazar Research, Channel 13’s polling consortium and i24NEWS / Direct Polls.
Two reports add complete national vote-percentage tables. Channel 14’s October 21 poll reports 97.9% for parties and 2.1% undecided; the model expresses the party percentages out of decided responses. Walla’s complete party table already totals 100% and is used unchanged. The other reports retain their seat-poll role. The model’s formulas have not changed.
The forecast pages list the recent polls by outlet, pollster and date. Inspect the reported figures and their use in the model.
What does it mean for the parties?
Likud has 24 headline seats in both methods. Yashar! has 23 in Vote Share Only and 22 in Fusion; Religious Zionism–Zehut has 6 and 7, respectively. Beyachad has 13, The Democrats 9, and Ra’am 5 in both. Shas, United Torah Judaism, Otzma Yehudit, Yisrael Beiteinu and the Joint List each have 8. Both methods’ party headlines add up to 120 seats.
Ra’am’s chance of crossing the threshold is 74.0% in Vote Share Only and 79.3% in Fusion. Amcha Yisrael is at 27.7% and 22.4%; Reservists–Economic at 34.1% and 28.8%. These parties continue to matter to how the seats are divided.
Compare party forecasts, follow threshold chances, or download the inputs, summaries and all simulation draws. The data page also keeps the earlier October 23 version and its original article available. Read how the model works.