To 120 is an independent site about Israeli Knesset elections, available in English and Hebrew. It combines a forecast of election chances with explanatory articles, for readers who want to follow the election without already knowing Israeli politics or statistics.
The name refers to the Knesset's 120 seats, of which 61 form an outright majority. It is also an echo of the traditional Jewish blessing ad me'a ve'esrim — "until a hundred and twenty" — a wish for long life. Both meanings are intended.
The site is organized around one question: which bloc, if any, can reach 61 seats? Everything published here — the headline probability, the seat ranges, the threshold coverage, the articles — exists to help you answer that question for yourself, with evidence.
What we are here to do
1. Make Israeli elections accessible. Israeli electoral politics is covered heavily and explained rarely. Coverage tends to assume you already know what the threshold is, why blocs matter more than parties, and why the largest party may not govern. We assume none of that. Every concept the forecast relies on has a plain-language explanation on this site, written for a reader encountering it for the first time.
2. Go deep on what makes the Israeli system distinctive. Accessibility is not the same as simplification. The Israeli system has real peculiarities — a single nationwide district, closed lists, a sharp electoral threshold, surplus-vote agreements, coalition arithmetic that routinely overrides the raw seat count — and they are not trivia. They decide outcomes. We treat the mechanics as a subject worth understanding on its own terms, not as background to be skipped.
3. Put disciplined numbers against confident talk. Election commentary produces an enormous volume of certainty: predictions without stated odds, narratives without stated evidence, and numbers quoted without their uncertainty. Our answer is not louder commentary; it is a forecast that states its probabilities explicitly, publishes its method and its limitations, and keeps a public record of its statements so that its performance can be checked. We do not claim our numbers are the truth. We claim they are honest estimates, produced by a stated method, offered so that you can weigh confident claims — from any direction — against something accountable.
4. Provide a complete picture of the K26 race. The forecast is the centerpiece, but a single number is not an understanding. Around it we maintain the fuller suite: what the polls say and how much they have historically missed by, which lists are near the threshold and what happens if they fall, how the blocs are declared and how firm those declarations are, and what the realistic paths to 61 look like as election day — 27 October 2026 — approaches.
What we are not
We are not a pundit shop. We publish no endorsements, no commentary on parties or leaders, and no predictions in prose. Where a judgment call enters the method — and in coalition politics some judgment calls are unavoidable — we say so and grade our confidence, rather than presenting a political assessment as an arithmetic fact.
We do not claim to predict seats better than the polls we use. Our aim is to turn those polls into understandable chances, account for their uncertainty when calculating seats, and show our work. Over time, we can check whether events given a 30% chance actually happen about three times in ten. That check is called calibration.
How this site is sustained
To 120 is a private project, built and maintained on a volunteer basis. It carries no advertising and takes no sponsorships; it is sustained solely by reader donations. The arrangement is deliberate. A forecast is credible only if its numbers answer to no one's interests, and that independence is easiest to guarantee when the site is funded by the readers it serves. If you find the work useful, donations toward sustaining it — and sustaining its quality — are welcome and encouraged.
Support To 120 to help keep the forecast and explanations freely available.
How to judge us is itself published, in advance, in What a 30% Chance Means, and What It Doesn’t.