Loading forecast / התחזית נטענת
Loading forecast / התחזית נטענת
Explore the numbers
Browse the evidence without downloading filesOpen CSV files in a spreadsheet, or use JSON for your own analysis. These are the same results displayed on the website, with the full numbers supplied by the model before display rounding.
Poll records, model inputs and forecast results for Vote Share Only and Vote and Seat Fusion, including the October 26, 2026 update and saved forecasts for earlier dates.
Complete package · ZIP · about 36 MB ↓Original website package · ZIP · about 38 MB ↓Earlier packages remain here so you can compare releases.
October 23, 2026 · 14:20 (Israel time) · Previous version
Both approaches, every displayed date, and names in both languages.
Seats, vote shares, ranges and chances of clearing the threshold.
Chances of 61+, average seats and ranges for each grouping.
Each date’s status, draw count and available poll entries.
Follow the path from poll to forecast: start with poll records, review the prepared values, then check which inputs were used on each date. These are retained poll figures, not individual respondents’ answers.
Reported figures, sources, dates and other retained details. A poll appearing here does not mean every party uses it.
Values prepared for computation, distinguishing reported figures from values derived from them.
All 90 dates, including available forecasts, dates without enough evidence and future projections.
Chances of each party and bloc seat total, by date and approach.
These files cover the current update only. Both approaches use the same simulated results with different weights: Vote Share Only gives every result equal weight; Fusion uses varying weights. To reproduce Fusion probabilities, use weight_D. Counting the results equally will not reproduce them.
Reported figures and any adjustments made before computation. An unreported value stays missing.
How polls contribute to each party’s point estimate. These are not pollster ratings.
Estimated change and measurement-error settings for the current update, with poll counts by lane.
An empty CSV cell or JSON null means unknown. Source links, publication dates, fieldwork dates and sample sizes are included when retained. Check each poll’s role in the calculation: appearing in the source records does not mean it was used for every party.
The original files include daily results for both approaches. They are historical reconstructions, not forecasts published at the time. In these source files, R means Vote Share Only and D means Vote and Seat Fusion.
Sensitivity view: all 42 Next Data surveys are omitted, and the model is recalibrated using the remaining polls. Direct Polls remains included. This is an alternative calculation for October 26, not a finding that excluding a pollster improves accuracy.
Probabilities in these files run from 0 to 1; vote shares are percentages. A party’s seat range may cover only simulations where it enters the Knesset, with zero seats shown separately. A chance of 61 seats is not a chance of forming a government.
© 2026 Ariel Danieli. All rights reserved. Commercial use of the model’s inputs or outputs requires explicit prior consent.
How were these results calculated?