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TO 120 · ISRAEL ELECTION FORECAST

The daily path to 61.

To 120 is an independent project that helps you understand what the polls say about Israel’s elections. Explore each bloc’s chance of reaching 61 seats, party forecasts, daily trends and past elections. The model tests thousands of possible results and shows the uncertainty around its estimates, so you can see what else might happen and examine the data yourself.

Information cutoffSep 27, 2026Election day: Oct 27, 2026

FORECAST APPROACH

This approach uses polls that report the percentage of votes each party would receive.

The selected date and approach apply to both charts and every figure below.

How do the 120 seats divide?

Sep 27, 2026 · Vote Share Only

By bloc

Seat map
Netanyahu-aligned bloc: 53 seatsZionist Opposition: 55 seatsArab lists: 12 seats120seats

120 seats in the Knesset

Which parties are in each group?
  • Netanyahu-aligned bloc: Likud, Shas, United Torah Judaism, Otzma Yehudit, Religious Zionism–Zehut, Amcha Yisrael
  • Zionist Opposition: Beyachad, Yashar!, Yisrael Beiteinu, The Democrats
  • Arab lists: Raam, Joint List
  • Outside these blocs: Haredi Public, Blue and White, Reservists–Economic

By party

Seat map
Likud: 24 seatsYashar!: 23 seatsBeyachad: 13 seatsThe Democrats: 10 seatsYisrael Beiteinu: 9 seatsUnited Torah Judaism: 8 seatsOtzma Yehudit: 8 seatsShas: 7 seatsJoint List: 7 seatsReligious Zionism–Zehut: 6 seatsRaam: 5 seats120seats

120 seats in the Knesset

These charts show the seat allocation for the selected date and approach, not majority chances. Each party belongs to one group; Zionist Opposition plus Arab lists is not a separate slice. Parties with zero seats appear in the key only.

Latest polls used in this forecast · Sep 27, 2026

Vote-share polls

  • Maariv · Lazar Research / Panel4All

    Published: Sep 26, 2026

Additional seat polls used by Fusion

  • Channel 16 · Maagar Mochot / Yitzhak Katz

    Poll date: Sep 24, 2026 · Publication date not recorded

    This source is still being checked against election committee filings.

See all polls and how they were used

LATEST FORECAST

Sep 27, 2026

100,000 simulated elections in this snapshot

Polls available by this date: 222 total; 73 with vote shares and 220 with seats. Some polls appear in both lanes; these are not necessarily the polls used for each party.

Netanyahu-aligned bloc

8.1%

Chance of at least 61 seats

Average seats: 53.3 · 80% range*: 47–60

Zionist Opposition

9.4%

Chance of at least 61 seats

Average seats: 54.0 · 80% range*: 48–60

Zionist Opposition plus Arab lists

80.0%

Chance of at least 61 seats

Average seats: 64.9 · 80% range*: 58–72

* Eight in ten simulated results fall within this range. Adding the Zionist Opposition and Arab lists’ seats does not predict that they would form a government together.

THREE GROUPINGS · ONE SEAT AXIS

Seat ranges against the 61-seat line

Each line shows the 80% seat range; the dot marks the average across simulations. Download the full simulation results from the data page.

Netanyahu-aligned bloc47–60 · average 53.3
Zionist Opposition48–60 · average 54.0
Zionist Opposition plus Arab lists58–72 · average 64.9
4050606170

* An 80% interval contains eight in ten simulated outcomes between its endpoints.

DAILY MOVEMENT

How the majority chances moved

Sep 27, 2026

0%25%50%75%100%09-1709-2209-27
Netanyahu-aligned bloc: 8.1%Zionist Opposition: 9.4%Zionist Opposition plus Arab lists: 80.0%

Move across the graph or drag with a finger to change the date. With a keyboard, focus the graph and use the arrow keys. All figures on this page update together. September 17–26 were reconstructed later using information available on each day.

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