With 16 days until the election, the October 11 update uses polling information available by 5:46 p.m. Israel time. The fuller reports from Maariv and i24NEWS add detail to the picture, but the main assessment holds: neither the Netanyahu-aligned bloc nor Zionist Opposition reaches 61 seats in the central forecast.
Where does the race stand?
| Grouping | Vote Share Only | Vote and Seat Fusion |
|---|---|---|
| Netanyahu-aligned bloc | 10.5% | 8.4% |
| Zionist Opposition | 6.2% | 2.8% |
| Zionist Opposition plus Arab lists | 76.0% | 80.8% |
Vote Share Only uses polls reporting vote percentages. Vote and Seat Fusion also brings in additional seat polls. Both use the same 100,000 simulated election results, with Fusion giving more weight to results that fit the additional seat evidence.
The Netanyahu-aligned bloc averages 54.1 seats in Vote Share Only and 54.6 in Fusion. Zionist Opposition averages 53.0 and 52.7. Adding Ra’am and the Joint List to Beyachad, Yashar!, Yisrael Beiteinu and The Democrats brings the average to 64.1 and 64.2 seats.
Compared with the October 8 Tatika update, Netanyahu’s chance of 61 falls from 11.2% to 10.5% in Vote Share Only and from 9.0% to 8.4% in Fusion. Zionist Opposition’s chance rises from 4.9% to 6.2% and from 2.3% to 2.8%. Those are small movements within a race where either core bloc still faces a difficult path to a majority on its own. Explore the daily trends.
What did the full poll reports add?
The official election-committee report for Maariv / Lazar Research supplies the complete vote-percentage table from its October 8–9 fieldwork. Those percentages now enter Vote Share Only. The same survey’s seat figures are not counted again as additional Fusion evidence.
The report for i24NEWS / Direct Polls confirms its national seat figures. Those seats enter Fusion; its incomplete vote-percentage figures remain available in the source data. These reports replace earlier records of the same surveys. They are not two additional independent polls, and the model’s formulas are unchanged.
Look beyond the bloc totals
The party headlines give Likud 24 seats in Vote Share Only and 25 in Fusion, with Yashar! at 24 and 23. Beyachad stays at 12, and The Democrats at 10, in both methods. The smaller lists’ chances of passing the threshold help explain why the bloc totals can vary across simulations.
See the forecast for every party, compare chances of crossing the threshold, or check the polls used in this update. The data page contains CSV and JSON inputs and outputs, plus all 100,000 current simulations. Read how the forecast works.