Five days before the October 27 election, the latest polls leave the broad picture intact: neither the Netanyahu-aligned bloc nor Zionist Opposition reaches 61 seats in the central forecast. This update includes polling published through October 21, with information available by 5:53 a.m. Israel time on October 22.
What are the majority chances?
| Bloc | Vote Share Only | Vote and Seat Fusion |
|---|---|---|
| Netanyahu-aligned | 6.3% | 5.3% |
| Zionist Opposition | 2.7% | 1.0% |
| Zionist Opposition + Arab lists | 79.7% | 83.6% |
Vote Share Only uses polls reporting each party’s percentage of votes. Vote and Seat Fusion also uses additional seat polls, giving more weight to simulated results that fit them. Both methods use the same 100,000 simulated election results.
The Netanyahu-aligned bloc averages 53.8 seats in Vote Share Only and 54.2 in Fusion. Zionist Opposition averages 52.5 and 52.1. Adding Ra’am and the Joint List to Beyachad, Yashar!, Yisrael Beiteinu and The Democrats brings the averages to 64.2 and 64.3.
Has the model changed its view of the race?
Since the October 14 update, Netanyahu’s majority chance has moved from 8.2% to 6.3% in Vote Share Only and from 6.8% to 5.3% in Fusion. Zionist Opposition has moved from 6.6% to 2.7% and from 2.8% to 1.0%, respectively. Both routes to a majority have narrowed over that period.
The more recent movement is smaller: since October 19, Netanyahu’s chance in Vote Share Only has edged up from 5.8% to 6.3%, while Zionist Opposition’s has slipped from 3.7% to 2.7%. The new polls have shifted the numbers, without overturning the model’s central view that each core bloc faces a difficult path to 61 on its own. Compare the dates on the graph.
What is new in the polling?
The update adds ten new independent surveys and incorporates five official reports to the election committee. Two reports replace earlier web versions of the same surveys. The model’s formulas have not changed.
The new official vote-percentage tables come from Kan 11 / Kantar, Channel 12 / Midgam and Channel 14 / Next Data. Additional seat polls include the October 21 reports from Channels 12, 13 and 14. The forecast pages identify the outlet, pollster and date; the evidence browser shows the underlying figures and how each poll is used.
What does it mean for the parties?
Both methods give Likud 24 headline seats, Yashar! 23, Beyachad 13, and The Democrats 9. Shas, United Torah Judaism, Otzma Yehudit, Yisrael Beiteinu and the Joint List each have 8; Religious Zionism–Zehut has 6 and Ra’am 5. Each method’s party headlines add up to 120 seats.
Ra’am’s chance of crossing the threshold is 72.3% in Vote Share Only and 78.9% in Fusion. Amcha Yisrael is at 29.9% and 24.6%; Reservists–Economic at 35.0% and 28.9%. The smaller parties can still change how the 120 seats are divided.
Compare party forecasts, follow threshold chances, or download the inputs, summaries and all simulation draws. Read how the model works.