The October 5 forecast uses polling evidence available by 4:44 a.m. Israel time, including polls conducted or published through October 2. Neither the Netanyahu-aligned bloc nor the Zionist Opposition reaches 61 seats in the central seat forecast. That is a statement about seat totals, not about who will form a government.
What are the chances of 61 seats?
| Grouping | Vote Share Only: chance of 61+ | Vote and Seat Fusion: chance of 61+ | | --- | ---: | ---: | | Netanyahu-aligned bloc | 12.3% | 10.7% | | Zionist Opposition | 4.9% | 2.2% | | Zionist Opposition plus Arab lists | 74.3% | 77.7% |
The first approach uses polls reporting vote percentages. Fusion starts with the same 100,000 simulated election results and gives more weight to results that also fit additional seat polls. The two approaches put the Netanyahu-aligned bloc at an average of 54.6 and 55.1 seats, respectively. For the Zionist Opposition, the averages are 52.5 and 52.3.
The third row adds Ra’am and the Joint List to the Zionist Opposition as a seat-counting exercise. It does not assume those parties would govern together. A chance of reaching 61 seats is not a chance of forming a government.
What do the party figures show?
Both approaches’ central seat allocation gives Likud 25, Yashar! 23, Beyachad 12 and The Democrats 10 seats. A party can have a zero-seat central figure and still have a chance of entering parliament. Explore every party’s seats, vote share and threshold chance.
The central seat figures divide an average vote estimate into exactly 120 seats. The bloc averages above instead average seats across the simulations, so adding central party figures need not reproduce a bloc average.
What changed in the polling evidence?
This release records eight official Central Elections Committee PDF disclosures: six replace earlier records and two represent distinct new polls. They cover Channel 13, Channel 14, Kan News, i24NEWS and Maariv. Check each poll and its role in the forecast; appearing in the source table alone does not mean every figure was used.
The model does not fill in missing vote percentages from reported seats. For example, it uses the October 1 Channel 14 seat figures but holds back that poll’s vote percentages because their published base is incomplete. It also holds back Channel 13’s unweighted sector vote tables. The downloadable audit records which vote figures were adjusted to a comparable base and which were left out. Its historical checks are still incomplete, so the site does not silently rescale other polls.
Earlier dates shown in today’s charts were reconstructed afterward using information available on each day. The October 1 briefing remains tied to its original issued package; today’s reconstruction can show revised figures for that date. Download the current CSV and JSON files or read how the forecast works.