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Published forecast data

Without Next Data · October 26, 2026

Sensitivity view: all 42 Next Data surveys are omitted, and the model is recalibrated using the remaining polls. Direct Polls remains included. This is an alternative calculation for October 26, not a finding that excluding a pollster improves accuracy.

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Source polls, including omitted records

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Prepared model inputs

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Inputs actually used

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The 42 omitted surveys

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Party forecasts

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Bloc forecasts

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Exact seat distributions

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Latest polls in this scenario

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Poll weights

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All simulation draws

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Original scenario supplement · ZIPFile guideData dictionary