{ "clock_notes": "model_available_from may be capture/binding time, not publication. Date-only history is available only on a later local date. state_target_time is the model query time; information_cutoff limits evidence.", "formats": { "csv": "UTF-8 with BOM; header row; nested cells are JSON; empty means unknown", "json": "UTF-8; numeric types preserved; null means unknown" }, "probability_unit": "fraction from 0 to 1", "schema_version": "k26_reader_data_v1", "scope": "Public R and D derived aggregate downloads, authorized by K26-RD-PUBLIC-DISPLAY-20260927-001. No respondent records, private documents, databases, local paths or experimental pollster ratings.", "seat_unit": "seats", "table_columns": { "bloc_forecasts": [ "forecast_date", "information_cutoff", "snapshot_status", "arm", "group_id", "label_en", "label_he", "member_party_ids", "expected_seats", "seat_q10", "seat_q90", "p_at_least_61_seats", "probability_condition", "government_formation_claim" ], "current_calibration": [ "m_state_service_id", "m_candidate_id", "m_identity_mapping_digest", "m_identity_sidecar_sha256", "contest_party_id", "vote_history_polls", "seat_history_polls", "vote_q_native_per_day", "vote_r_or_u_native", "vote_parameter_source", "seat_q_native_per_day", "seat_r_or_u_native", "seat_role", "b5_fallback_used" ], "current_poll_weights": [ "forecast_date", "arm", "party_id", "coordinate_id", "survey_budget_id", "pollster_literal", "measurement_time", "vote_share_pp", "effective_observation_variance_pp2", "gain_at_observation", "final_mean_weight", "weighted_point_component_pp" ], "current_seat_distributions": [ "forecast_date", "arm", "group_kind", "group_id", "seat_total", "raw_draw_count", "weighted_draw_count", "probability", "weighting" ], "daily_status": [ "forecast_date", "information_cutoff", "snapshot_status", "forecast_status", "reason", "draw_count", "horizon_days", "available_poll_budget_count" ], "held_vote_observations": [ "model_consuming", "pdf_sha256", "pollster", "reason", "record_id", "reported_value_pp", "source_entity_label_or_binding", "source_url", "survey_budget_id", "scenario_excluded_pollster", "current_status", "historical_source_preserved", "source_status", "response_base", "source_page", "subgroup", "source_capture_sha256", "N1_denominator_pp", "N1_factor", "N1_value_pp", "generic_other_retained", "population", "source_sha256", "source_table_locator", "censored_bound", "source_urls", "source_literal", "deterministic_N1_value_pp", "source_question" ], "input_membership": [ "forecast_date", "information_cutoff", "state_target_time", "input_role", "target_party_id", "coordinate_id", "survey_budget_id" ], "latest_admitted_polls": [ "forecast_date", "arm", "observation_lane", "survey_budget_id", "input_role", "outlet", "pollster", "fieldwork_start", "fieldwork_end", "publication_date", "model_measurement_time", "model_available_from", "sample_size_reported", "source_status", "source_urls", "covered_party_ids", "scope", "selection_clock", "admission_evidence" ], "model_inputs": [ "coordinate_id", "source_coordinate_id", "cycle", "routed_entity_id", "observation_lane", "native_value_unit", "numeric_value", "measurement_time", "available_from", "clock_precision", "measurement_variance_floor", "population_binding", "model_state_epoch_id", "denominator_stratum", "governed_model_support_family_id", "governed_one_poll_budget_id", "pollster", "raw_scenario_id", "governed_semantic_scenario_class", "model_valid_from", "model_valid_until", "n1_status", "n1_reported_value_pp", "n1_denominator_pp", "n1_factor" ], "n1_normalization_audit": [ "authority", "coordinate_count", "factor", "full_source_table_total_pp", "generic_other_removed", "n1_denominator_pp", "nonresponse_categories", "removed_nonresponse_pp", "scenario_id", "source_refs", "source_response_categories", "status", "survey_budget_id", "scenario_excluded_pollster", "national_forecast_consuming", "source_only_N1_vote_total_pp", "source_population", "source_stage", "source_pdf_sha256", "censored_party_count", "national_vote_forecast_consuming", "reason", "source_visible_point_percent_total_pp" ], "party_forecasts": [ "forecast_date", "information_cutoff", "snapshot_status", "arm", "contest_party_id", "vote_mean_pp", "vote_q2_5_pp", "vote_q10_pp", "vote_q90_pp", "vote_q97_5_pp", "headline_seats", "expected_seats", "seat_q10", "seat_q90", "p_below_legal_threshold", "p_represented", "zero_seat_probability", "proposal_list_key", "display_name_en", "display_name_he", "group_id", "raw_b5_point_pp", "closed_model_point_pp", "p_above_legal_threshold", "seat_range_mode", "seat_range_low", "seat_range_high", "seat_range_display" ], "poll_observations": [ "clock_precision", "coordinate_id", "current_model_roles", "fieldwork_end", "fieldwork_start", "input_disposition", "input_disposition_authority", "metadata_missing_is_unknown", "model_available_from", "model_measurement_time", "numeric_input_value", "observation_lane", "outlet", "pollster_literal", "prepared_denominator", "prepared_population", "present_in_transformed_runtime", "raw_value_text", "reported_numeric_value", "sample_size_for_measurement_floor", "sample_size_reported", "scenario_id", "source_class", "source_denominator", "source_entity_binding", "source_label", "source_namespace", "source_publication_date", "source_record_id", "source_sha256", "source_status", "source_table_locator", "source_urls", "survey_budget_id", "unit", "value_kind", "zero_provenance_status" ], "scenario_excluded_polls": [ "survey_budget_id", "publication_date", "measurement_time", "outlet", "active_roles", "removed_consuming_coordinates_by_lane" ], "source_response_categories": [ "allocation_to_individual_parties", "category", "model_party_coordinate", "pdf_sha256", "record_id", "reported_value_pp", "response_base", "source_url", "survey_budget_id", "scenario_excluded_pollster", "national_aggregate_available", "subgroup", "subgroup_sample_size", "N1_denominator_pp", "N1_value_pp", "national_forecast_consuming", "response_category_or_party_id", "source_population", "source_sha256", "source_stage", "reported_value", "response_category_or_metadata", "source_pages", "survey_refusal_not_vote_question_nonresponse", "not_a_complete_vote_vector", "not_used_as_N1_denominator", "source_response_categories", "source_urls", "separate_questions_not_used_as_N1_denominator", "PDF_generic_other_pp", "PDF_named_party_percent", "field", "publisher_percent", "record_kind", "resolution", "PDF_LIKUD", "PDF_YASHAR", "authority", "publisher_text_LIKUD", "publisher_text_YASHAR", "publisher_url", "secondary_LIKUD", "published_opposition", "sum_reported_party_seats", "primary", "secondary", "pollster_report", "publisher_text", "completed_n", "initial_n", "invited_n", "reported_pp", "fieldwork_dates", "primary_publisher_retrieval", "sample_metadata_source", "skarim_and_underwar_reported", "ynet_reported", "official_PDF", "predecessor", "official_fieldwork_end", "predecessor_publication_proxy" ], "source_successions": [ "authority", "effective_from", "old_source_preserved", "same_survey_not_independent_poll", "successor_budget_id", "superseded_budget_id", "scenario_excluded_pollster", "earlier_issued_outputs_preserved", "new_independent_survey", "predecessor_budget_id", "record_id", "same_survey_one_budget", "source_sha256", "vote_lane_disposition" ], "source_surface_holds": [ "reason", "record_id", "scenario_excluded_pollster", "source_url", "authority", "future_sources_excluded", "model_consuming", "permanent", "pollster", "source_hash_status", "source_sha256", "M_population_binding", "complete_national_vote_vector_admitted", "national_adult_population_literal_available", "unreported_parties", "N1_applied", "national_forecast_consuming", "organization_authority", "organization_exclusion_active", "population", "source_pages", "source_population_authority", "survey_budget_id", "affected_lane", "national_seat_evidence_consuming", "no_N1_denominator_inferred", "no_censored_value_imputation", "no_complete_vote_vector_admitted", "seat_evidence_consuming", "source_urls", "current_status", "current_unresolved_hold", "resolved_in_issue", "discovery_source", "existing_survey_budget_id", "existing_verified_source_retained", "new_independent_survey", "file_received", "fieldwork_dates", "sample_size", "source_filename", "source_pages_reviewed", "source_response_categories", "source_vote_values" ], "uncertainty_targets": [ "forecast_date", "information_cutoff", "snapshot_status", "party_id", "horizon_variance_pp2", "list", "point_pp", "variance_before", "variance_after" ] }, "table_meanings": { "bloc_forecasts": "R and D arithmetic bloc summaries; seat_q10/seat_q90 are unconditional. P61 is not government-formation probability.", "current_calibration": "Current M vote and seat states. The seat lane is attestation only for R; these are not fitted states for every past date.", "current_draws": "Today's joint simulations, preserving common draw IDs across all lists and arms. CSV has vote and seat columns per list; JSON stores matrices in party_order. R uses weight_R=1/N; D uses the exported normalized weight_D. Each draw totals 120 seats.", "current_poll_weights": "Current R point-filter weights conditional on fitted Q/R, before vector closure. They sum to one per party and reproduce raw_b5_point_pp; they are not pollster ratings or full model derivatives. gain_at_observation=1 for the initializing poll.", "current_seat_distributions": "Both arms on the full 0–120 seat axis. raw_draw_count counts shared proposal draws; probability uses each arm's weights. weighted_draw_count is probability times bank size and need not be an integer. For D, raw counts divided by bank size do not reproduce its probabilities.", "daily_status": "Only the October 26 optional scenario is available. No historical or future scenario series has been calculated.", "input_membership": "Exact collapsed per-date R point histories, shared M vote-cycle calibration support, seat-state attestation histories and D incremental seat evidence. D uses the R proposal plus the selected incremental seat marginals. Future dates reuse the current information cutoff and state. Seat attestation does not affect the R vote point. Unavailable dates have no forecast membership rows.", "model_inputs": "Exact transformed runtime coordinates for the current optional scenario. Presence alone does not establish consumption. Join input_membership on coordinate_id. model_valid_until is exclusive.", "n1_normalization_audit": "One row per runtime vote question. RAW_ALL_RESPONDENTS removes explicit same-question nonresponse with value*100/(100-nonresponse). N1_ALREADY_PUBLISHED preserves an already party-only base. Unknown same-base nonresponse does not establish zero. Generic other party responses are retained; interview nonparticipation rates are never a vote denominator.", "party_forecasts": "Complete numeric R and D party summaries, distinguished by arm. headline_seats is legal allocation of the arm-weighted draw-mean vote vector; expected_seats is its weighted seat mean. Positive seat_range fields are conditional on representation.", "poll_observations": "Numeric source surface prepared for this run, including held and superseded records; not a full discovery database. numeric_input_value can be a deterministic seat zero, as indicated by value_kind. Source labels and metadata are null when not retained. source_entity_binding is the prior governed binding, not the printed label.", "uncertainty_targets": "Per-date, per-list point and target variance before/after the configured stability bound. These are model targets, not additional polls.", "scenario_excluded_polls": "All 42 distinct Next Data budgets removed before calibration and prediction for this optional view only. This does not change baseline eligibility." }, "vote_unit": "percentage points", "scenario_id": "NO_NEXT_DATA", "scenario_authority": "OWNER_NO_NEXT_DATA_PUBLIC_OPTION_20261026" }