{
  "current_information_cutoff": "2026-10-26T00:41:48+02:00",
  "row_count": 10,
  "rows": [
    {
      "arm": "R",
      "expected_seats": 51.02451,
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-26",
      "government_formation_claim": false,
      "group_id": "NETANYAHU_ALIGNED",
      "information_cutoff": "2026-10-26T00:41:48+02:00",
      "label_en": "Netanyahu-aligned bloc",
      "label_he": "גוש נתניהו",
      "member_party_ids": [
        "LIKUD",
        "SHAS",
        "UNITED_TORAH_JUDAISM",
        "OTZMA_YEHUDIT",
        "K26_NATIVE_LIST::RZP_AND_ZEHUT",
        "WINTER_NEW_PARTY"
      ],
      "p_at_least_61_seats": 0.01522,
      "probability_condition": "CONDITIONAL_ON_NO_UNTRACKED_OTHER_LIST_CROSSING_THRESHOLD",
      "seat_q10": 45.0,
      "seat_q90": 57.0,
      "snapshot_status": "OPTIONAL_CURRENT_SENSITIVITY"
    },
    {
      "arm": "R",
      "expected_seats": 53.72363,
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-26",
      "government_formation_claim": false,
      "group_id": "CHANGE_CORE",
      "information_cutoff": "2026-10-26T00:41:48+02:00",
      "label_en": "Zionist Opposition",
      "label_he": "גוש השינוי",
      "member_party_ids": [
        "K26_NATIVE_LIST::BEYAHAD_BENNETT",
        "YASHAR_GADI_EISENKOT",
        "YISRAEL_BEITEINU",
        "THE_DEMOCRATS"
      ],
      "p_at_least_61_seats": 0.05281,
      "probability_condition": "CONDITIONAL_ON_NO_UNTRACKED_OTHER_LIST_CROSSING_THRESHOLD",
      "seat_q10": 49.0,
      "seat_q90": 59.0,
      "snapshot_status": "OPTIONAL_CURRENT_SENSITIVITY"
    },
    {
      "arm": "R",
      "expected_seats": 12.88109,
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-26",
      "government_formation_claim": false,
      "group_id": "ARAB_LISTS",
      "information_cutoff": "2026-10-26T00:41:48+02:00",
      "label_en": "Arab lists",
      "label_he": "הרשימות הערביות",
      "member_party_ids": [
        "RAAM",
        "HADASH_TAAL_BALAD"
      ],
      "p_at_least_61_seats": 0.0,
      "probability_condition": "CONDITIONAL_ON_NO_UNTRACKED_OTHER_LIST_CROSSING_THRESHOLD",
      "seat_q10": 8.0,
      "seat_q90": 17.0,
      "snapshot_status": "OPTIONAL_CURRENT_SENSITIVITY"
    },
    {
      "arm": "R",
      "expected_seats": 2.37077,
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-26",
      "government_formation_claim": false,
      "group_id": "UNCOMMITTED",
      "information_cutoff": "2026-10-26T00:41:48+02:00",
      "label_en": "Between blocs",
      "label_he": "בין הגושים",
      "member_party_ids": [
        "K26_NATIVE_LIST::HAREDI_PUBLIC",
        "BLUE_WHITE",
        "K26_NATIVE_LIST::RESERVISTS_AND_NEW_ECONOMIC_PARTY"
      ],
      "p_at_least_61_seats": 0.0,
      "probability_condition": "CONDITIONAL_ON_NO_UNTRACKED_OTHER_LIST_CROSSING_THRESHOLD",
      "seat_q10": 0.0,
      "seat_q90": 6.0,
      "snapshot_status": "OPTIONAL_CURRENT_SENSITIVITY"
    },
    {
      "arm": "R",
      "expected_seats": 66.60472,
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-26",
      "government_formation_claim": false,
      "group_id": "CHANGE_PLUS_ARAB_LISTS",
      "information_cutoff": "2026-10-26T00:41:48+02:00",
      "label_en": "Zionist Opposition plus Arab lists — arithmetic grouping only",
      "label_he": "גוש השינוי והרשימות הערביות — חיבור חשבוני בלבד",
      "member_party_ids": [
        "K26_NATIVE_LIST::BEYAHAD_BENNETT",
        "YASHAR_GADI_EISENKOT",
        "YISRAEL_BEITEINU",
        "THE_DEMOCRATS",
        "RAAM",
        "HADASH_TAAL_BALAD"
      ],
      "p_at_least_61_seats": 0.91478,
      "probability_condition": "CONDITIONAL_ON_NO_UNTRACKED_OTHER_LIST_CROSSING_THRESHOLD",
      "seat_q10": 61.0,
      "seat_q90": 72.0,
      "snapshot_status": "OPTIONAL_CURRENT_SENSITIVITY"
    },
    {
      "arm": "D",
      "expected_seats": 51.544313757826956,
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-26",
      "government_formation_claim": false,
      "group_id": "NETANYAHU_ALIGNED",
      "information_cutoff": "2026-10-26T00:41:48+02:00",
      "label_en": "Netanyahu-aligned bloc",
      "label_he": "גוש נתניהו",
      "member_party_ids": [
        "LIKUD",
        "SHAS",
        "UNITED_TORAH_JUDAISM",
        "OTZMA_YEHUDIT",
        "K26_NATIVE_LIST::RZP_AND_ZEHUT",
        "WINTER_NEW_PARTY"
      ],
      "p_at_least_61_seats": 0.010387753917798703,
      "probability_condition": "CONDITIONAL_ON_NO_UNTRACKED_OTHER_LIST_CROSSING_THRESHOLD",
      "seat_q10": 47.0,
      "seat_q90": 56.0,
      "snapshot_status": "OPTIONAL_CURRENT_SENSITIVITY"
    },
    {
      "arm": "D",
      "expected_seats": 53.29566970293757,
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-26",
      "government_formation_claim": false,
      "group_id": "CHANGE_CORE",
      "information_cutoff": "2026-10-26T00:41:48+02:00",
      "label_en": "Zionist Opposition",
      "label_he": "גוש השינוי",
      "member_party_ids": [
        "K26_NATIVE_LIST::BEYAHAD_BENNETT",
        "YASHAR_GADI_EISENKOT",
        "YISRAEL_BEITEINU",
        "THE_DEMOCRATS"
      ],
      "p_at_least_61_seats": 0.02169866221403457,
      "probability_condition": "CONDITIONAL_ON_NO_UNTRACKED_OTHER_LIST_CROSSING_THRESHOLD",
      "seat_q10": 49.0,
      "seat_q90": 58.0,
      "snapshot_status": "OPTIONAL_CURRENT_SENSITIVITY"
    },
    {
      "arm": "D",
      "expected_seats": 13.284339892514847,
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-26",
      "government_formation_claim": false,
      "group_id": "ARAB_LISTS",
      "information_cutoff": "2026-10-26T00:41:48+02:00",
      "label_en": "Arab lists",
      "label_he": "הרשימות הערביות",
      "member_party_ids": [
        "RAAM",
        "HADASH_TAAL_BALAD"
      ],
      "p_at_least_61_seats": 0.0,
      "probability_condition": "CONDITIONAL_ON_NO_UNTRACKED_OTHER_LIST_CROSSING_THRESHOLD",
      "seat_q10": 9.0,
      "seat_q90": 17.0,
      "snapshot_status": "OPTIONAL_CURRENT_SENSITIVITY"
    },
    {
      "arm": "D",
      "expected_seats": 1.875676646720609,
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-26",
      "government_formation_claim": false,
      "group_id": "UNCOMMITTED",
      "information_cutoff": "2026-10-26T00:41:48+02:00",
      "label_en": "Between blocs",
      "label_he": "בין הגושים",
      "member_party_ids": [
        "K26_NATIVE_LIST::HAREDI_PUBLIC",
        "BLUE_WHITE",
        "K26_NATIVE_LIST::RESERVISTS_AND_NEW_ECONOMIC_PARTY"
      ],
      "p_at_least_61_seats": 0.0,
      "probability_condition": "CONDITIONAL_ON_NO_UNTRACKED_OTHER_LIST_CROSSING_THRESHOLD",
      "seat_q10": 0.0,
      "seat_q90": 6.0,
      "snapshot_status": "OPTIONAL_CURRENT_SENSITIVITY"
    },
    {
      "arm": "D",
      "expected_seats": 66.58000959545242,
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-26",
      "government_formation_claim": false,
      "group_id": "CHANGE_PLUS_ARAB_LISTS",
      "information_cutoff": "2026-10-26T00:41:48+02:00",
      "label_en": "Zionist Opposition plus Arab lists — arithmetic grouping only",
      "label_he": "גוש השינוי והרשימות הערביות — חיבור חשבוני בלבד",
      "member_party_ids": [
        "K26_NATIVE_LIST::BEYAHAD_BENNETT",
        "YASHAR_GADI_EISENKOT",
        "YISRAEL_BEITEINU",
        "THE_DEMOCRATS",
        "RAAM",
        "HADASH_TAAL_BALAD"
      ],
      "p_at_least_61_seats": 0.9412945930724881,
      "probability_condition": "CONDITIONAL_ON_NO_UNTRACKED_OTHER_LIST_CROSSING_THRESHOLD",
      "seat_q10": 62.0,
      "seat_q90": 71.0,
      "snapshot_status": "OPTIONAL_CURRENT_SENSITIVITY"
    }
  ],
  "schema_version": "k26_reader_data_v1",
  "table": "bloc_forecasts",
  "scenario_id": "NO_NEXT_DATA",
  "scenario_authority": "OWNER_NO_NEXT_DATA_PUBLIC_OPTION_20261026"
}
