{"D_method":{"dirichlet_smoothing":1,"display_eligibility":"PUBLIC_SIDE_BY_SIDE_OWNER_AUTHORIZED_20260927","lambda":0.15,"lambda_basis":"FULL_K23_K25_EQUAL_CYCLE_CRPS_MINIMUM_DERIVED_FROM_FROZEN_V5_DIAGNOSTICS","lambda_source_sha256":"b9dd4f7a2c21311637cb4041c6ac14c86cf1d2f501569ef8b8112fd2138c05b7","lambda_training_policy":"SELECT_ON_COMPLETED_K23_K25_OUTCOMES_ONCE_THEN_FREEZE_FOR_ALL_K26_DATES","maximum_normalized_weight":0.01,"method":"R_SEAT_MARGINAL_COMPATIBILITY_TILT","minimum_effective_sample_fraction":0.05,"role":"PUBLIC_FORECAST_OWNER_AUTHORIZED","seat_draw_count":20000,"seat_half_life_days":14,"seat_seed":20260914,"seat_sigma_floor":1.25,"seat_window_days":60},"bloc_probability_condition":"CONDITIONAL_ON_NO_UNTRACKED_OTHER_LIST_CROSSING_THRESHOLD","current_draw_count":100000,"current_information_cutoff":"2026-10-26T00:41:48+02:00","election_date":"2026-10-27","export_authority":"EXPLICIT_OWNER_INSTRUCTION_2026_09_27_PUBLISH_MODEL_INPUTS_AND_OUTPUTS_CSV_JSON_REGULAR_PACKAGE","exported_arms":["R","D"],"forecast_issued":true,"forecast_publication_status":"ISSUED_FINAL_PUBLIC_RD_OCT26_OWNER_PDF_FORECAST_NOT_DEPLOYED","forecast_sha256":"9842cb8611f958b56cf4cb6f5ae7bc290aa1cf22d680d3fd37ccf75692108db4","historical_snapshot_policy":"PRESERVE_FINAL_PUBLIC_OUTPUTS_NO_RECALCULATION","horizon_interpolation":"PIECEWISE_LINEAR_VARIANCE_BETWEEN_FROZEN_H60_H30_H14_H7_ANCHORS","horizon_variance_anchors":[{"horizon_days":60,"source_bin":"EARLY","variance_pp2":19.16290023157028},{"horizon_days":30,"source_bin":"MID","variance_pp2":2.8687594712411593},{"horizon_days":14,"source_bin":"MID","variance_pp2":2.8687594712411593},{"horizon_days":7,"source_bin":"LATE","variance_pp2":2.054709216280299},{"horizon_days":0,"source_bin":"HFINAL","variance_pp2":2.054709216280299}],"legal_threshold_percent":3.25,"other_date_draw_count":20000,"point_engine":"M_CALIBRATED_BAYESIAN_LOCAL_LEVEL","private_floor_aware_calibration":true,"public_activation":false,"public_display_authority":"K26-RD-PUBLIC-DISPLAY-20260927-001","reader_calculation_scope":"CURRENT_SNAPSHOT_ONLY","relative_variance_incumbent_weight":0.5,"reporting_rules":{"low_threshold_range_rule":"ZERO_COMMA_CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE_Q10_TO_Q90","minimum_threshold_probability_for_conditional_positive_range":0.05,"ordinary_range_rule":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE_Q10_TO_Q90_ZERO_PREFIX_IF_ZERO_HAS_MASS","rare_representation_range_rule":"ZERO_ONLY_BELOW_FIVE_PERCENT_THRESHOLD_PROBABILITY","threshold_probability_cutoff_for_zero_separated_range":null,"zero_separated_range_authority":"K26-THRESHOLD-FOLLOWUP-20261005-001"},"reserved_other_valid_vote_mass_percent":2.4,"roster":[{"contest_party_id":"LIKUD","display_name_en":"Likud","display_name_he":"הליכוד","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_likud"},{"contest_party_id":"SHAS","display_name_en":"Shas","display_name_he":"ש״ס","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_shas"},{"contest_party_id":"UNITED_TORAH_JUDAISM","display_name_en":"United Torah Judaism","display_name_he":"יהדות התורה","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_utj"},{"contest_party_id":"OTZMA_YEHUDIT","display_name_en":"Otzma Yehudit","display_name_he":"עוצמה יהודית","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_otzma"},{"contest_party_id":"K26_NATIVE_LIST::RZP_AND_ZEHUT","display_name_en":"Religious Zionism–Zehut","display_name_he":"הציונות הדתית וזהות","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_religious_zionism_zehut"},{"contest_party_id":"WINTER_NEW_PARTY","display_name_en":"Amcha Yisrael","display_name_he":"עמך ישראל","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_amcha_yisrael"},{"contest_party_id":"K26_NATIVE_LIST::HAREDI_PUBLIC","display_name_en":"Haredi Public","display_name_he":"הציבור החרדי","group_id":"UNCOMMITTED","proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_haredi_public"},{"contest_party_id":"K26_NATIVE_LIST::BEYAHAD_BENNETT","display_name_en":"Beyachad","display_name_he":"ביחד","group_id":"CHANGE_CORE","proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_beyachad"},{"contest_party_id":"YASHAR_GADI_EISENKOT","display_name_en":"Yashar!","display_name_he":"ישר!","group_id":"CHANGE_CORE","proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_yashar"},{"contest_party_id":"YISRAEL_BEITEINU","display_name_en":"Yisrael Beiteinu","display_name_he":"ישראל ביתנו","group_id":"CHANGE_CORE","proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_yisrael_beiteinu"},{"contest_party_id":"THE_DEMOCRATS","display_name_en":"The Democrats","display_name_he":"הדמוקרטים","group_id":"CHANGE_CORE","proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_democrats"},{"contest_party_id":"RAAM","display_name_en":"Raam","display_name_he":"רע״ם","group_id":"ARAB_LISTS","proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_raam"},{"contest_party_id":"HADASH_TAAL_BALAD","display_name_en":"Joint List","display_name_he":"הרשימה המשותפת","group_id":"ARAB_LISTS","proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_joint_list"},{"contest_party_id":"BLUE_WHITE","display_name_en":"Blue and White","display_name_he":"כחול לבן","group_id":"UNCOMMITTED","proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_blue_white"},{"contest_party_id":"K26_NATIVE_LIST::RESERVISTS_AND_NEW_ECONOMIC_PARTY","display_name_en":"Reservists–Economic","display_name_he":"המילואימניקים והכלכלית","group_id":"UNCOMMITTED","proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_reservists_economic"}],"schema_version":"k26_reader_data_v1","seeds":[{"candidate_id":"B5_UNCERTAINTY::DIRECT_HORIZON_MARGINAL_V2_2_SHRUNK_RELATIVE","cycle":"K26","draw_count":100000,"fold":"K26_PROSPECTIVE","horizon":"H1","purpose":"amplitude_calibration","recipe_authorization_status":"OWNER_AUTHORIZED_DIRECT_HORIZON_RECIPE_V2_1","rho":"0","rng":"NUMPY_PCG64","seed_material_sha256":"a42d023daa0c4225c0820c88c4fd0541fe4ee52670a31f487ce98d47ff3003d6","seed_uint64":11830114260041351717},{"candidate_id":"B5_UNCERTAINTY::DIRECT_HORIZON_MARGINAL_V2_2_SHRUNK_RELATIVE","cycle":"K26","draw_count":100000,"fold":"K26_PROSPECTIVE","horizon":"H1","purpose":"mean_recentering","recipe_authorization_status":"OWNER_AUTHORIZED_DIRECT_HORIZON_RECIPE_V2_1","rho":"0","rng":"NUMPY_PCG64","seed_material_sha256":"4eba05cfd5f4997490bb11ef2632eae804ebf6485ef032630d2da76a8ac074e1","seed_uint64":5672853070832507252},{"candidate_id":"B5_UNCERTAINTY::DIRECT_HORIZON_MARGINAL_V2_2_SHRUNK_RELATIVE","cycle":"K26","draw_count":100000,"fold":"K26_PROSPECTIVE","horizon":"H1","purpose":"main","recipe_authorization_status":"OWNER_AUTHORIZED_DIRECT_HORIZON_RECIPE_V2_1","rho":"0","rng":"NUMPY_PCG64","seed_material_sha256":"c5832122139887cdd99d784ac99208de5046c945eefc9eb8689c790be59f27cb","seed_uint64":14232255677662267341}],"small_list_spread_cap":{"anchors":[{"horizon_days":60,"max_sd_over_point":1.4343,"n":4,"note":"only 4 cases (incl. Labor 2021, Jewish Home 2022 surges): permissive at long horizons"},{"horizon_days":30,"max_sd_over_point":0.726,"n":9},{"horizon_days":14,"max_sd_over_point":0.7011,"n":10},{"horizon_days":7,"max_sd_over_point":0.6373,"n":8},{"horizon_days":0,"max_sd_over_point":0.616,"n":9}],"contract":"min(target_variance, (cap(h) * point)^2) for every list; continuous; anchors = sample sd of log(actual/point) over K21-K25 lists with point < 3.25%","interpretation":"extrapolation bound from historical outcomes, not a calibrated estimate","method_id":"K26_U1_CAP::OUTCOME_LOG_ERROR_SD_SUBTHRESHOLD_GLOBAL_CONTINUOUS_V1","share_floor_pp":null,"source_sha256":"73849d85ed8f994a4c1b3309c4520effdba307d8cd878d7d035b35f4581981f4"},"surplus_agreement_status":"PROVISIONAL_UNKNOWN_EMPTY_SET_OWNER_AUTHORIZED_INTERNAL_ONLY","surplus_agreements":[]}