{ "schema_version": "to120.reader-outputs.v1", "publication_status": "ISSUED_PUBLIC_RD", "public_package": { "public_display_authority": "K26-RD-PUBLIC-DISPLAY-20260927-001", "forecast_sha256": "f23cf96d7242be4b99c6213d2fa5ae71881318add7c9d047cdcb79b489a99bbc", "parent_forecast_sha256": "f23cf96d7242be4b99c6213d2fa5ae71881318add7c9d047cdcb79b489a99bbc", "current_draw_count": 100000, "download": "/data/k26/2026-10-06/reader/k26_reader_data_2026-10-06.zip", "field_dictionary": "/data/k26/2026-10-06/reader/data_dictionary.json" }, "current_date": "2026-10-06", "election_date": "2026-10-27", "information_cutoff": "2026-10-06T14:50:11+03:00", "source_forecast_sha256": "f23cf96d7242be4b99c6213d2fa5ae71881318add7c9d047cdcb79b489a99bbc", "notes": { "display_names": "English bloc names in these website summaries match the site labels. Stable bloc IDs and Hebrew names are unchanged. The original reader package preserves the model's source labels.", "status": "Both approaches are publicly displayed with the owner's authorization. Original computation and export-stage status fields are preserved as provenance; they do not describe whether the website has since gone live. Earlier displayed dates are retrospective reconstructions, not forecasts issued on those dates.", "probabilities": "p61 and threshold_probability are fractions from 0 to 1. p61 means at least 61 seats, not government formation. It assumes no untracked other list passes the threshold.", "votes": "vote_mean, vote_low and vote_high are percentages, not fractions.", "seats": "headline_seats allocate the average simulated vote vector. Bloc expected_seats average simulated allocations. Seat ranges can be conditional on representation; zero is shown separately when supplied. See seat_range_mode.", "seat_range_mode": "CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE = 80% range among draws with representation. ZERO_SEPARATED_CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE = zero is a separate possibility plus the represented-draw range. ZERO_ONLY_RARE_REPRESENTATION = the package reports zero only; entry can still have a small nonzero probability.", "poll_counts": "Available poll entries overlap between lanes and do not establish how many polls were used for each party.", "inputs": "These files summarize the displayed results. Download the separate reader package at /data/k26/2026-10-06/reader/k26_reader_data_2026-10-06.zip for poll sources, transformed inputs, per-date inclusion records, detailed outputs and current-day joint simulations.", "draws": "The reader package contains 2026-10-06's 100,000 shared simulations, not full draw banks for every earlier date. Vote Share Only (R in source files) uses uniform weight_R; Vote and Seat Fusion (D) uses normalized weight_D. Fusion probabilities require those weights and cannot be reproduced by counting draws equally.", "package_scope": "The original reader tables include unavailable dates and future projections as explicitly labelled. A future projection uses the current information cutoff and is not a forecast issued in advance. CSV empty cells and JSON null mean unknown, not zero. Use input_membership to identify which poll records enter each date and role; appearing in a source table alone does not mean a poll was used.", "rights": "© 2026 Ariel Danieli / אריאל דניאלי. All rights reserved. Commercial use of model inputs or outputs requires explicit prior consent." }, "snapshots": [ { "date": "2026-09-17", "snapshot_status": "RETROSPECTIVE_CAUSAL_RECONSTRUCTION_NOT_ORIGINALLY_ISSUED", "draw_count": 20000, "available_poll_entries": 210, "vote_poll_entries": 65, "seat_poll_entries": 208 }, { "date": "2026-09-18", "snapshot_status": "RETROSPECTIVE_CAUSAL_RECONSTRUCTION_NOT_ORIGINALLY_ISSUED", "draw_count": 20000, "available_poll_entries": 210, "vote_poll_entries": 65, "seat_poll_entries": 208 }, { "date": "2026-09-19", "snapshot_status": "RETROSPECTIVE_CAUSAL_RECONSTRUCTION_NOT_ORIGINALLY_ISSUED", "draw_count": 20000, "available_poll_entries": 210, "vote_poll_entries": 65, "seat_poll_entries": 208 }, { "date": "2026-09-20", "snapshot_status": "RETROSPECTIVE_CAUSAL_RECONSTRUCTION_NOT_ORIGINALLY_ISSUED", "draw_count": 20000, "available_poll_entries": 210, "vote_poll_entries": 65, "seat_poll_entries": 208 }, { "date": "2026-09-21", "snapshot_status": "RETROSPECTIVE_CAUSAL_RECONSTRUCTION_NOT_ORIGINALLY_ISSUED", "draw_count": 20000, "available_poll_entries": 210, "vote_poll_entries": 65, "seat_poll_entries": 208 }, { "date": "2026-09-22", "snapshot_status": "RETROSPECTIVE_CAUSAL_RECONSTRUCTION_NOT_ORIGINALLY_ISSUED", "draw_count": 20000, "available_poll_entries": 210, "vote_poll_entries": 65, "seat_poll_entries": 208 }, { "date": "2026-09-23", "snapshot_status": "RETROSPECTIVE_CAUSAL_RECONSTRUCTION_NOT_ORIGINALLY_ISSUED", "draw_count": 20000, "available_poll_entries": 215, "vote_poll_entries": 68, "seat_poll_entries": 213 }, { "date": "2026-09-24", "snapshot_status": "RETROSPECTIVE_CAUSAL_RECONSTRUCTION_NOT_ORIGINALLY_ISSUED", "draw_count": 20000, "available_poll_entries": 218, "vote_poll_entries": 69, "seat_poll_entries": 216 }, { "date": "2026-09-25", "snapshot_status": "RETROSPECTIVE_CAUSAL_RECONSTRUCTION_NOT_ORIGINALLY_ISSUED", "draw_count": 20000, "available_poll_entries": 219, "vote_poll_entries": 70, "seat_poll_entries": 217 }, { "date": "2026-09-26", "snapshot_status": "RETROSPECTIVE_CAUSAL_RECONSTRUCTION_NOT_ORIGINALLY_ISSUED", "draw_count": 20000, "available_poll_entries": 219, "vote_poll_entries": 70, "seat_poll_entries": 217 }, { "date": "2026-09-27", "snapshot_status": "RETROSPECTIVE_CAUSAL_RECONSTRUCTION_NOT_ORIGINALLY_ISSUED", "draw_count": 20000, "available_poll_entries": 220, "vote_poll_entries": 71, "seat_poll_entries": 218 }, { "date": "2026-09-28", "snapshot_status": "RETROSPECTIVE_CAUSAL_RECONSTRUCTION_NOT_ORIGINALLY_ISSUED", "draw_count": 20000, "available_poll_entries": 220, "vote_poll_entries": 71, "seat_poll_entries": 218 }, { "date": "2026-09-29", "snapshot_status": "RETROSPECTIVE_CAUSAL_RECONSTRUCTION_NOT_ORIGINALLY_ISSUED", "draw_count": 20000, "available_poll_entries": 223, "vote_poll_entries": 72, "seat_poll_entries": 221 }, { "date": "2026-09-30", "snapshot_status": "RETROSPECTIVE_CAUSAL_RECONSTRUCTION_NOT_ORIGINALLY_ISSUED", "draw_count": 20000, "available_poll_entries": 225, "vote_poll_entries": 73, "seat_poll_entries": 223 }, { "date": "2026-10-01", "snapshot_status": "RETROSPECTIVE_CAUSAL_RECONSTRUCTION_NOT_ORIGINALLY_ISSUED", "draw_count": 20000, "available_poll_entries": 227, "vote_poll_entries": 73, "seat_poll_entries": 225 }, { "date": "2026-10-02", "snapshot_status": "RETROSPECTIVE_CAUSAL_RECONSTRUCTION_NOT_ORIGINALLY_ISSUED", "draw_count": 20000, "available_poll_entries": 227, "vote_poll_entries": 73, "seat_poll_entries": 225 }, { "date": "2026-10-03", "snapshot_status": "RETROSPECTIVE_CAUSAL_RECONSTRUCTION_NOT_ORIGINALLY_ISSUED", "draw_count": 20000, "available_poll_entries": 227, "vote_poll_entries": 73, "seat_poll_entries": 225 }, { "date": "2026-10-04", "snapshot_status": "RETROSPECTIVE_CAUSAL_RECONSTRUCTION_NOT_ORIGINALLY_ISSUED", "draw_count": 20000, "available_poll_entries": 227, "vote_poll_entries": 73, "seat_poll_entries": 225 }, { "date": "2026-10-05", "snapshot_status": "RETROSPECTIVE_RECONSTRUCTION_20000_DRAWS_ORIGINAL_ISSUED_FILES_PRESERVED", "draw_count": 20000, "available_poll_entries": 229, "vote_poll_entries": 78, "seat_poll_entries": 227 }, { "date": "2026-10-06", "snapshot_status": "ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE", "draw_count": 100000, "available_poll_entries": 231, "vote_poll_entries": 78, "seat_poll_entries": 229 } ], "parties": [ { "date": "2026-09-17", "snapshot_status": "RETROSPECTIVE_CAUSAL_RECONSTRUCTION_NOT_ORIGINALLY_ISSUED", "approach": "vote_share_only", "approach_name": "Vote Share Only", "approach_name_he": "אחוזי תמיכה בלבד", "approach_role": "Public forecast approach", "id": "LIKUD", "headline_seats": 23, "seat_range": "17–30", "seat_range_mode": "CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE", "threshold_probability": 1, "vote_mean": 17.095486438271852, "vote_low": 12.71787019662093, "vote_high": 21.838225134525906, "name_en": "Likud", "name_he": "הליכוד" }, { "date": "2026-09-17", "snapshot_status": "RETROSPECTIVE_CAUSAL_RECONSTRUCTION_NOT_ORIGINALLY_ISSUED", "approach": "vote_share_only", "approach_name": "Vote Share Only", "approach_name_he": "אחוזי תמיכה בלבד", "approach_role": "Public forecast approach", "id": "SHAS", "headline_seats": 7, "seat_range": "0, 5–13", "seat_range_mode": "ZERO_SEPARATED_CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE", "threshold_probability": 0.79445, "vote_mean": 5.477649102931128, "vote_low": 2.5907004732452314, "vote_high": 9.123947529697073, "name_en": "Shas", "name_he": "ש״ס" }, { "date": "2026-09-17", "snapshot_status": "RETROSPECTIVE_CAUSAL_RECONSTRUCTION_NOT_ORIGINALLY_ISSUED", "approach": "vote_share_only", "approach_name": "Vote Share Only", "approach_name_he": "אחוזי תמיכה בלבד", "approach_role": "Public forecast approach", "id": "UNITED_TORAH_JUDAISM", "headline_seats": 8, "seat_range": "0, 5–14", "seat_range_mode": "ZERO_SEPARATED_CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE", "threshold_probability": 0.88095, "vote_mean": 6.135036867619503, "vote_low": 3.0907987481396773, "vote_high": 9.879721716628014, "name_en": "United Torah Judaism", "name_he": "יהדות התורה" }, { "date": "2026-09-17", "snapshot_status": "RETROSPECTIVE_CAUSAL_RECONSTRUCTION_NOT_ORIGINALLY_ISSUED", "approach": "vote_share_only", "approach_name": "Vote Share Only", "approach_name_he": "אחוזי תמיכה בלבד", "approach_role": "Public forecast approach", "id": "OTZMA_YEHUDIT", "headline_seats": 8, "seat_range": "0, 5–13", "seat_range_mode": "ZERO_SEPARATED_CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE", "threshold_probability": 0.86055, "vote_mean": 5.8517809749032415, "vote_low": 2.9679731041245607, "vote_high": 9.375071918315458, "name_en": "Otzma Yehudit", "name_he": "עוצמה יהודית" }, { "date": "2026-09-17", "snapshot_status": "RETROSPECTIVE_CAUSAL_RECONSTRUCTION_NOT_ORIGINALLY_ISSUED", "approach": "vote_share_only", "approach_name": "Vote Share Only", "approach_name_he": "אחוזי תמיכה בלבד", "approach_role": "Public forecast approach", "id": "K26_NATIVE_LIST::RZP_AND_ZEHUT", "headline_seats": 5, "seat_range": "0, 4–12", "seat_range_mode": "ZERO_SEPARATED_CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE", "threshold_probability": 0.50515, "vote_mean": 3.961131141178441, "vote_low": 1.4137264995479464, "vote_high": 7.285264474124704, "name_en": "Religious Zionism–Zehut", "name_he": "הציונות הדתית וזהות" }, { "date": "2026-09-17", "snapshot_status": "RETROSPECTIVE_CAUSAL_RECONSTRUCTION_NOT_ORIGINALLY_ISSUED", "approach": "vote_share_only", "approach_name": "Vote Share Only", "approach_name_he": "אחוזי תמיכה בלבד", "approach_role": "Public forecast approach", "id": "WINTER_NEW_PARTY", "headline_seats": 0, "seat_range": "0, 4–12", "seat_range_mode": "ZERO_SEPARATED_CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE", "threshold_probability": 0.35905, "vote_mean": 3.215756007978203, "vote_low": 0.9267168803145143, "vote_high": 6.3318927677808565, "name_en": "Amcha Yisrael", "name_he": "עמך ישראל" }, { "date": "2026-09-17", "snapshot_status": "RETROSPECTIVE_CAUSAL_RECONSTRUCTION_NOT_ORIGINALLY_ISSUED", "approach": "vote_share_only", "approach_name": "Vote Share Only", "approach_name_he": "אחוזי תמיכה בלבד", "approach_role": "Public forecast approach", "id": "K26_NATIVE_LIST::HAREDI_PUBLIC", "headline_seats": 0, "seat_range": "0", "seat_range_mode": "ZERO_ONLY_RARE_REPRESENTATION", "threshold_probability": 0.028349999999999986, "vote_mean": 0.5296836272142277, "vote_low": 0.019209438068753165, "vote_high": 1.1986362242368298, "name_en": "Haredi Public", "name_he": "הציבור החרדי" }, { "date": "2026-09-17", "snapshot_status": "RETROSPECTIVE_CAUSAL_RECONSTRUCTION_NOT_ORIGINALLY_ISSUED", "approach": "vote_share_only", "approach_name": "Vote Share Only", "approach_name_he": "אחוזי תמיכה בלבד", "approach_role": "Public forecast approach", "id": "K26_NATIVE_LIST::BEYAHAD_BENNETT", "headline_seats": 13, "seat_range": "0, 8–19", "seat_range_mode": "ZERO_SEPARATED_CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE", "threshold_probability": 0.9997, "vote_mean": 9.965359888525272, "vote_low": 6.297879538748155, "vote_high": 14.246695716446803, "name_en": "Beyachad", "name_he": "ביחד" }, { "date": "2026-09-17", "snapshot_status": "RETROSPECTIVE_CAUSAL_RECONSTRUCTION_NOT_ORIGINALLY_ISSUED", "approach": "vote_share_only", "approach_name": "Vote Share Only", "approach_name_he": "אחוזי תמיכה בלבד", "approach_role": "Public forecast approach", "id": "YASHAR_GADI_EISENKOT", "headline_seats": 24, "seat_range": "18–31", "seat_range_mode": "CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE", "threshold_probability": 1, "vote_mean": 17.667586910398118, "vote_low": 13.095277285737817, "vote_high": 22.568431772425814, "name_en": "Yashar!", "name_he": "ישר!" }, { "date": "2026-09-17", "snapshot_status": "RETROSPECTIVE_CAUSAL_RECONSTRUCTION_NOT_ORIGINALLY_ISSUED", "approach": "vote_share_only", "approach_name": "Vote Share Only", "approach_name_he": "אחוזי תמיכה בלבד", "approach_role": "Public forecast approach", "id": "YISRAEL_BEITEINU", "headline_seats": 9, "seat_range": "0, 5–14", "seat_range_mode": "ZERO_SEPARATED_CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE", "threshold_probability": 0.92515, "vote_mean": 6.577272371926586, "vote_low": 3.490548263728687, "vote_high": 10.307798044894916, "name_en": "Yisrael Beiteinu", "name_he": "ישראל ביתנו" }, { "date": "2026-09-17", "snapshot_status": "RETROSPECTIVE_CAUSAL_RECONSTRUCTION_NOT_ORIGINALLY_ISSUED", "approach": "vote_share_only", "approach_name": "Vote Share Only", "approach_name_he": "אחוזי תמיכה בלבד", "approach_role": "Public forecast approach", "id": "THE_DEMOCRATS", "headline_seats": 10, "seat_range": "0, 6–15", "seat_range_mode": "ZERO_SEPARATED_CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE", "threshold_probability": 0.9686, "vote_mean": 7.430940900163264, "vote_low": 4.129455282127608, "vote_high": 11.41025222867534, "name_en": "The Democrats", "name_he": "הדמוקרטים" }, { "date": "2026-09-17", "snapshot_status": "RETROSPECTIVE_CAUSAL_RECONSTRUCTION_NOT_ORIGINALLY_ISSUED", "approach": "vote_share_only", "approach_name": "Vote Share Only", "approach_name_he": "אחוזי תמיכה בלבד", "approach_role": "Public forecast approach", "id": "RAAM", "headline_seats": 5, "seat_range": "0, 4–12", "seat_range_mode": "ZERO_SEPARATED_CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE", "threshold_probability": 0.45799999999999996, "vote_mean": 3.7092055016595302, "vote_low": 1.2968105045788134, "vote_high": 6.9351235293869395, "name_en": "Raam", "name_he": "רע״ם" }, { "date": "2026-09-17", "snapshot_status": "RETROSPECTIVE_CAUSAL_RECONSTRUCTION_NOT_ORIGINALLY_ISSUED", "approach": "vote_share_only", "approach_name": "Vote Share Only", "approach_name_he": "אחוזי תמיכה בלבד", "approach_role": "Public forecast approach", "id": "HADASH_TAAL_BALAD", "headline_seats": 8, "seat_range": "0, 5–13", "seat_range_mode": "ZERO_SEPARATED_CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE", "threshold_probability": 0.82355, "vote_mean": 5.747440781161706, "vote_low": 2.7302811993618965, "vote_high": 9.511965585498608, "name_en": "Joint List", "name_he": "הרשימה המשותפת" }, { "date": "2026-09-17", "snapshot_status": "RETROSPECTIVE_CAUSAL_RECONSTRUCTION_NOT_ORIGINALLY_ISSUED", "approach": "vote_share_only", "approach_name": "Vote Share Only", "approach_name_he": "אחוזי תמיכה בלבד", "approach_role": "Public forecast approach", "id": "BLUE_WHITE", "headline_seats": 0, "seat_range": "0, 4–13", "seat_range_mode": "ZERO_SEPARATED_CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE", "threshold_probability": 0.05505000000000004, "vote_mean": 1.003453402172002, "vote_low": 0.1221002571490429, "vote_high": 2.3036068245865224, "name_en": "Blue and White", "name_he": "כחול לבן" }, { "date": "2026-09-17", "snapshot_status": "RETROSPECTIVE_CAUSAL_RECONSTRUCTION_NOT_ORIGINALLY_ISSUED", "approach": "vote_share_only", "approach_name": "Vote Share Only", "approach_name_he": "אחוזי תמיכה בלבד", "approach_role": "Public forecast approach", "id": "K26_NATIVE_LIST::RESERVISTS_AND_NEW_ECONOMIC_PARTY", "headline_seats": 0, "seat_range": "0, 4–12", "seat_range_mode": "ZERO_SEPARATED_CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE", "threshold_probability": 0.36140000000000005, "vote_mean": 3.232216083896927, "vote_low": 0.9650481660912148, "vote_high": 6.36939754976959, "name_en": "Reservists–Economic", "name_he": "המילואימניקים והכלכלית" }, { "date": "2026-09-17", "snapshot_status": "RETROSPECTIVE_CAUSAL_RECONSTRUCTION_NOT_ORIGINALLY_ISSUED", "approach": "vote_and_seat_fusion", "approach_name": "Vote and Seat Fusion", "approach_name_he": "שילוב אחוזי תמיכה ומנדטים", "approach_role": "Public forecast approach", "id": "LIKUD", "headline_seats": 24, "seat_range": "18–30", "seat_range_mode": "CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE", "threshold_probability": 1, "vote_mean": 17.938028738642736, "vote_low": 13.820632434564585, "vote_high": 22.307307042709645, "name_en": "Likud", "name_he": "הליכוד" }, { "date": "2026-09-17", "snapshot_status": "RETROSPECTIVE_CAUSAL_RECONSTRUCTION_NOT_ORIGINALLY_ISSUED", "approach": "vote_and_seat_fusion", "approach_name": "Vote and Seat Fusion", "approach_name_he": "שילוב אחוזי תמיכה ומנדטים", "approach_role": "Public forecast approach", "id": "SHAS", "headline_seats": 8, "seat_range": "0, 5–12", "seat_range_mode": "ZERO_SEPARATED_CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE", "threshold_probability": 0.9221790606477458, "vote_mean": 5.968180908475006, "vote_low": 3.45709813008385, "vote_high": 8.684878412812903, "name_en": "Shas", "name_he": "ש״ס" }, { "date": "2026-09-17", "snapshot_status": "RETROSPECTIVE_CAUSAL_RECONSTRUCTION_NOT_ORIGINALLY_ISSUED", "approach": "vote_and_seat_fusion", "approach_name": "Vote and Seat Fusion", "approach_name_he": "שילוב אחוזי תמיכה ומנדטים", "approach_role": "Public forecast approach", "id": "UNITED_TORAH_JUDAISM", "headline_seats": 8, "seat_range": "0, 5–11", "seat_range_mode": "ZERO_SEPARATED_CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE", "threshold_probability": 0.9508710915692353, "vote_mean": 6.060274825858805, "vote_low": 3.7406473163267298, "vote_high": 8.601858155389511, "name_en": "United Torah Judaism", "name_he": "יהדות התורה" }, { "date": "2026-09-17", "snapshot_status": "RETROSPECTIVE_CAUSAL_RECONSTRUCTION_NOT_ORIGINALLY_ISSUED", "approach": "vote_and_seat_fusion", "approach_name": "Vote and Seat Fusion", "approach_name_he": "שילוב 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