{ "schema_version": "to120.reader-outputs.v1", "publication_status": "ISSUED_PUBLIC_RD", "public_package": { "public_display_authority": "K26-RD-PUBLIC-DISPLAY-20260927-001", "forecast_sha256": "b26e87251fe7ba57b412095eea9eb94a417571e10a8e075a98b1bf00ee70a6c0", "parent_forecast_sha256": "b26e87251fe7ba57b412095eea9eb94a417571e10a8e075a98b1bf00ee70a6c0", "current_draw_count": 100000, "download": "/data/k26/2026-10-25-r43/reader/K26_READER_DATA_2026-10-25_r43.zip", "website_download": "/data/k26/2026-10-25-r43/K26_WEBSITE_PACKAGE_2026-10-25_r43.zip", "website_archive_sha256": "578fa292f642a1a90bf6ed290115c979f528a7b1fcfc8ee30f7b1ee8d6549d58", "field_dictionary": "/data/k26/2026-10-25-r43/reader/data_dictionary.json" }, "current_date": "2026-10-25", "election_date": "2026-10-27", "information_cutoff": "2026-10-25T14:58:08+02:00", "source_forecast_sha256": "b26e87251fe7ba57b412095eea9eb94a417571e10a8e075a98b1bf00ee70a6c0", "public_revisions": [ { "id": "r41_oct23_poll_refresh", "date": "2026-10-23", "information_cutoff": "2026-10-23T14:20:46+03:00", "source_forecast_sha256": "3ae3afad1ade496d39198859d177a3b471d7caa2d5a1d0c5fe79db58dd06d137", "base_path": "/data/k26/2026-10-25-r43/source/public-revisions/2026-10-23--r41_oct23_poll_refresh" } ], "notes": { "display_names": "English bloc names in these website summaries match the site labels. Stable bloc IDs and Hebrew names are unchanged. The original reader package preserves the model's source labels.", "status": "Earlier daily results are preserved from their source packages. Each snapshot retains its source date, information cutoff and simulation count.", "probabilities": "p61 and threshold_probability are fractions from 0 to 1. p61 means at least 61 seats, not government formation. It assumes no untracked other list passes the threshold.", "votes": "vote_mean, vote_low and vote_high are percentages, not fractions.", "seats": "headline_seats allocate the average simulated vote vector. Bloc expected_seats average simulated allocations. Seat ranges can be conditional on representation; zero is shown separately when supplied. See seat_range_mode.", "seat_range_mode": "CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE = 80% range among draws with representation. ZERO_SEPARATED_CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE = zero is a separate possibility plus the represented-draw range. ZERO_ONLY_RARE_REPRESENTATION = the package reports zero only; entry can still have a small nonzero probability.", "poll_counts": "Available poll entries overlap between lanes and do not establish how many polls were used for each party.", "inputs": "These files summarize the displayed results. Download the separate reader package at /data/k26/2026-10-25-r43/reader/K26_READER_DATA_2026-10-25_r43.zip for poll sources, transformed inputs, per-date inclusion records, detailed outputs and current-day joint simulations.", "draws": "The reader package contains 2026-10-25's 100,000 shared simulations, not full draw banks for every earlier date. Vote Share Only (R in source files) uses uniform weight_R; Vote and Seat Fusion (D) uses normalized weight_D. Fusion probabilities require those weights and cannot be reproduced by counting draws equally.", "package_scope": "The original reader tables include unavailable dates and future projections as explicitly labelled. A future projection uses the current information cutoff and is not a forecast issued in advance. CSV empty cells and JSON null mean unknown, not zero. Use input_membership to identify which poll records enter each date and role; appearing in a source table alone does not mean a poll was used.", "rights": "© 2026 Ariel Danieli / אריאל דניאלי. All rights reserved. Commercial use of model inputs or outputs requires explicit prior consent." }, "snapshots": [ { "date": "2026-09-17", "snapshot_status": "RETROSPECTIVE_CAUSAL_RECONSTRUCTION_NOT_ORIGINALLY_ISSUED", "information_cutoff": "2026-09-17T23:59:59+03:00", "source_forecast_sha256": "945a44a315286d41a8f79116f56afc0f9a0b1f07eed93efffb2238c2123ee590", "draw_count": 20000, "available_poll_entries": 210, "vote_poll_entries": 65, "seat_poll_entries": 208 }, { "date": "2026-09-18", "snapshot_status": "RETROSPECTIVE_CAUSAL_RECONSTRUCTION_NOT_ORIGINALLY_ISSUED", "information_cutoff": "2026-09-18T23:59:59+03:00", "source_forecast_sha256": "945a44a315286d41a8f79116f56afc0f9a0b1f07eed93efffb2238c2123ee590", "draw_count": 20000, "available_poll_entries": 210, "vote_poll_entries": 65, "seat_poll_entries": 208 }, { "date": "2026-09-19", "snapshot_status": "RETROSPECTIVE_CAUSAL_RECONSTRUCTION_NOT_ORIGINALLY_ISSUED", "information_cutoff": "2026-09-19T23:59:59+03:00", "source_forecast_sha256": "945a44a315286d41a8f79116f56afc0f9a0b1f07eed93efffb2238c2123ee590", "draw_count": 20000, "available_poll_entries": 210, "vote_poll_entries": 65, "seat_poll_entries": 208 }, { "date": "2026-09-20", "snapshot_status": "RETROSPECTIVE_CAUSAL_RECONSTRUCTION_NOT_ORIGINALLY_ISSUED", "information_cutoff": "2026-09-20T23:59:59+03:00", "source_forecast_sha256": "945a44a315286d41a8f79116f56afc0f9a0b1f07eed93efffb2238c2123ee590", "draw_count": 20000, "available_poll_entries": 210, "vote_poll_entries": 65, "seat_poll_entries": 208 }, { "date": "2026-09-21", "snapshot_status": "RETROSPECTIVE_CAUSAL_RECONSTRUCTION_NOT_ORIGINALLY_ISSUED", "information_cutoff": "2026-09-21T23:59:59+03:00", "source_forecast_sha256": "945a44a315286d41a8f79116f56afc0f9a0b1f07eed93efffb2238c2123ee590", "draw_count": 20000, "available_poll_entries": 210, "vote_poll_entries": 65, "seat_poll_entries": 208 }, { "date": "2026-09-22", "snapshot_status": "RETROSPECTIVE_CAUSAL_RECONSTRUCTION_NOT_ORIGINALLY_ISSUED", "information_cutoff": "2026-09-22T23:59:59+03:00", "source_forecast_sha256": "945a44a315286d41a8f79116f56afc0f9a0b1f07eed93efffb2238c2123ee590", "draw_count": 20000, "available_poll_entries": 210, "vote_poll_entries": 65, "seat_poll_entries": 208 }, { "date": "2026-09-23", "snapshot_status": "RETROSPECTIVE_CAUSAL_RECONSTRUCTION_NOT_ORIGINALLY_ISSUED", "information_cutoff": "2026-09-23T23:59:59+03:00", "source_forecast_sha256": "945a44a315286d41a8f79116f56afc0f9a0b1f07eed93efffb2238c2123ee590", "draw_count": 20000, "available_poll_entries": 215, "vote_poll_entries": 68, "seat_poll_entries": 213 }, { "date": "2026-09-24", "snapshot_status": "RETROSPECTIVE_CAUSAL_RECONSTRUCTION_NOT_ORIGINALLY_ISSUED", "information_cutoff": "2026-09-24T23:59:59+03:00", "source_forecast_sha256": "945a44a315286d41a8f79116f56afc0f9a0b1f07eed93efffb2238c2123ee590", "draw_count": 20000, "available_poll_entries": 218, "vote_poll_entries": 69, "seat_poll_entries": 216 }, { "date": "2026-09-25", "snapshot_status": "RETROSPECTIVE_CAUSAL_RECONSTRUCTION_NOT_ORIGINALLY_ISSUED", "information_cutoff": "2026-09-25T23:59:59+03:00", "source_forecast_sha256": "945a44a315286d41a8f79116f56afc0f9a0b1f07eed93efffb2238c2123ee590", "draw_count": 20000, "available_poll_entries": 219, "vote_poll_entries": 70, "seat_poll_entries": 217 }, { "date": "2026-09-26", "snapshot_status": "RETROSPECTIVE_CAUSAL_RECONSTRUCTION_NOT_ORIGINALLY_ISSUED", "information_cutoff": "2026-09-26T23:59:59+03:00", "source_forecast_sha256": "945a44a315286d41a8f79116f56afc0f9a0b1f07eed93efffb2238c2123ee590", "draw_count": 20000, "available_poll_entries": 219, "vote_poll_entries": 70, "seat_poll_entries": 217 }, { "date": "2026-09-27", "snapshot_status": "CURRENT_PREVIEW_NOT_ISSUED", "information_cutoff": "2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00", "source_forecast_sha256": "0d8ac6df78c135ed6d2d80c62eabdaf6218e1b6b7617664e27990057506527e7", "draw_count": 100000, "available_poll_entries": 222, "vote_poll_entries": 73, "seat_poll_entries": 220 }, { "date": "2026-09-28", "snapshot_status": "RETROSPECTIVE_CAUSAL_RECONSTRUCTION_NOT_ORIGINALLY_ISSUED", "information_cutoff": "2026-09-28T23:59:59+03:00", "source_forecast_sha256": "945a44a315286d41a8f79116f56afc0f9a0b1f07eed93efffb2238c2123ee590", "draw_count": 20000, "available_poll_entries": 220, "vote_poll_entries": 71, "seat_poll_entries": 218 }, { "date": "2026-09-29", "snapshot_status": "CURRENT_PREVIEW_NOT_ISSUED", "information_cutoff": "2026-09-29T08:16:08+03:00", "source_forecast_sha256": "d3464eb9310fddaff5b15ba869f8810dec852a54800ad94d996b6cfc32248d48", "draw_count": 100000, "available_poll_entries": 223, "vote_poll_entries": 73, "seat_poll_entries": 221 }, { "date": "2026-09-30", "snapshot_status": "CURRENT_PREVIEW_NOT_ISSUED", "information_cutoff": "2026-09-30T16:21:00+03:00", "source_forecast_sha256": "1c3c863e2a54649151f23345eb35931a4709de7497eb0b49332c60a5e15504fb", "draw_count": 100000, "available_poll_entries": 225, "vote_poll_entries": 73, "seat_poll_entries": 223 }, { 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"2026-10-22", "snapshot_status": "ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE", "information_cutoff": "2026-10-22T05:53:51+03:00", "source_forecast_sha256": "ade8f2896c74110e4c58c9e7700b6b105e0b3e6434704a7ee1b06078825fa515", "draw_count": 100000, "available_poll_entries": 263, "vote_poll_entries": 98, "seat_poll_entries": 261 }, { "date": "2026-10-23", "snapshot_status": "ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE", "information_cutoff": "2026-10-23T17:17:50+03:00", "source_forecast_sha256": "e8f085db0e6d5e01116f02a6ef4a2a45bdb735f7f913c34362dcca1f56cc3cde", "draw_count": 100000, "available_poll_entries": 268, "vote_poll_entries": 100, "seat_poll_entries": 266 }, { "date": "2026-10-25", "snapshot_status": "ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE", "information_cutoff": "2026-10-25T14:58:08+02:00", "source_forecast_sha256": "b26e87251fe7ba57b412095eea9eb94a417571e10a8e075a98b1bf00ee70a6c0", "draw_count": 100000, "available_poll_entries": 272, "vote_poll_entries": 100, "seat_poll_entries": 270 } ], "parties": [ { "date": "2026-09-17", "snapshot_status": "RETROSPECTIVE_CAUSAL_RECONSTRUCTION_NOT_ORIGINALLY_ISSUED", "approach": "vote_share_only", "approach_name": "Vote Share Only", "approach_name_he": "אחוזי תמיכה בלבד", "approach_role": "Public forecast approach", "id": "LIKUD", "headline_seats": 23, "seat_range": "17–30", "seat_range_mode": "CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE", "threshold_probability": 1, "vote_mean": 17.095486438271852, "vote_low": 12.71787019662093, "vote_high": 21.838225134525906, "name_en": "Likud", "name_he": "הליכוד" }, { "date": "2026-09-17", "snapshot_status": "RETROSPECTIVE_CAUSAL_RECONSTRUCTION_NOT_ORIGINALLY_ISSUED", "approach": "vote_share_only", "approach_name": "Vote Share Only", "approach_name_he": "אחוזי תמיכה בלבד", "approach_role": "Public forecast approach", "id": "SHAS", "headline_seats": 7, "seat_range": "0, 5–13", "seat_range_mode": "ZERO_SEPARATED_CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE", "threshold_probability": 0.79445, "vote_mean": 5.477649102931128, "vote_low": 2.5907004732452314, "vote_high": 9.123947529697073, "name_en": "Shas", "name_he": "ש״ס" }, { "date": "2026-09-17", "snapshot_status": "RETROSPECTIVE_CAUSAL_RECONSTRUCTION_NOT_ORIGINALLY_ISSUED", "approach": "vote_share_only", "approach_name": "Vote Share Only", "approach_name_he": "אחוזי תמיכה בלבד", "approach_role": "Public forecast approach", "id": "UNITED_TORAH_JUDAISM", "headline_seats": 8, "seat_range": "0, 5–14", "seat_range_mode": "ZERO_SEPARATED_CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE", "threshold_probability": 0.88095, "vote_mean": 6.135036867619503, "vote_low": 3.0907987481396773, "vote_high": 9.879721716628014, "name_en": "United Torah Judaism", "name_he": "יהדות התורה" }, { "date": "2026-09-17", "snapshot_status": "RETROSPECTIVE_CAUSAL_RECONSTRUCTION_NOT_ORIGINALLY_ISSUED", "approach": "vote_share_only", "approach_name": "Vote Share Only", "approach_name_he": "אחוזי תמיכה בלבד", "approach_role": "Public forecast approach", "id": "OTZMA_YEHUDIT", "headline_seats": 8, "seat_range": "0, 5–13", "seat_range_mode": "ZERO_SEPARATED_CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE", "threshold_probability": 0.86055, "vote_mean": 5.8517809749032415, "vote_low": 2.9679731041245607, "vote_high": 9.375071918315458, "name_en": "Otzma Yehudit", "name_he": "עוצמה יהודית" }, { "date": "2026-09-17", "snapshot_status": "RETROSPECTIVE_CAUSAL_RECONSTRUCTION_NOT_ORIGINALLY_ISSUED", "approach": "vote_share_only", "approach_name": "Vote Share Only", "approach_name_he": "אחוזי תמיכה בלבד", "approach_role": "Public forecast approach", "id": "K26_NATIVE_LIST::RZP_AND_ZEHUT", "headline_seats": 5, "seat_range": "0, 4–12", "seat_range_mode": "ZERO_SEPARATED_CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE", "threshold_probability": 0.50515, "vote_mean": 3.961131141178441, "vote_low": 1.4137264995479464, "vote_high": 7.285264474124704, "name_en": "Religious Zionism–Zehut", "name_he": "הציונות הדתית וזהות" }, { "date": "2026-09-17", "snapshot_status": "RETROSPECTIVE_CAUSAL_RECONSTRUCTION_NOT_ORIGINALLY_ISSUED", "approach": "vote_share_only", "approach_name": "Vote Share 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