Rewind three Israeli elections. Compare two forecast approaches, follow each bloc’s chance of a majority, and see where the final predictions met reality.
THE MAJORITY PICTURE · 23 Mar
Netanyahu-aligned0.5%
Zionist non-Netanyahu grouping<0.1%
Zionist Anti-Bibi + Ra'am0.9%
Netanyahu-aligned + Ra'am4.0%
Chance of 61+ seats in each stated scenario
FINAL PREDICTION
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Netanyahu-aligned0.5%
Zionist non-Netanyahu grouping<0.1%
Zionist Anti-Bibi + Ra'am0.9%
Netanyahu-aligned + Ra'am4.0%
BLOC MAJORITY PROBABILITIES · Vote Share Only
What are the chances of reaching 61?
10,000simulated seat outcomes per available snapshot23 Mar · Baseline
The chance that the listed parties win at least 61 seats together. This counts their seats under the model’s assumptions; it does not predict whether they would agree to form a government. We show selected groupings, not every possible combination. Vote and Seat Fusion gives different weights to the same 10,000 simulated election results.
THE DAILY MAJORITY RACE
How the odds moved
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* About 80% of simulated seat outcomes fall in this range, from the 10th to the 90th percentile.
Available dates · dotted line = 50% · dot = selected date
How parties moving together changes the result: 2.7%–9.6%
These results test different assumptions about how parties’ support rises or falls together. They are separate from the main forecast, not a range of likely outcomes, and the main forecast may fall outside them.
Parties in this scenario (4)
Likud · Religious Zionism · Shas · United Torah Judaism
SCENARIO 02
Zionist non-Netanyahu grouping
<0.1%chance of 61+ seats
47.7 average seats42–53 80% seat interval
Available dates · dotted line = 50% · dot = selected date
How parties moving together changes the result: 0.7%–7.6%
These results test different assumptions about how parties’ support rises or falls together. They are separate from the main forecast, not a range of likely outcomes, and the main forecast may fall outside them.
Parties in this scenario (6)
Blue and White · Labor · Meretz · New Hope · Yesh Atid · Yisrael Beiteinu
SCENARIO 03
Zionist Anti-Bibi + Ra'am
0.9%chance of 61+ seats
50.4 average seats45–56 80% seat interval
Available dates · dotted line = 50% · dot = selected date
How parties moving together changes the result: 2.4%–10.4%
These results test different assumptions about how parties’ support rises or falls together. They are separate from the main forecast, not a range of likely outcomes, and the main forecast may fall outside them.
Parties in this scenario (7)
Blue and White · Labor · Meretz · New Hope · Ra'am · Yesh Atid · Yisrael Beiteinu
SCENARIO 04
Netanyahu-aligned + Ra'am
4.0%chance of 61+ seats
53.1 average seats48–59 80% seat interval
Available dates · dotted line = 50% · dot = selected date
How parties moving together changes the result: 9.3%–22.0%
These results test different assumptions about how parties’ support rises or falls together. They are separate from the main forecast, not a range of likely outcomes, and the main forecast may fall outside them.
Assumptions move this probability by at least 10 percentage points.
Parties in this scenario (5)
Likud · Ra'am · Religious Zionism · Shas · United Torah Judaism
Explore all six descriptive groups
These groups describe parts of the political landscape; they are not extra majority scenarios. Their ranges count seats from the same simulated elections together, rather than adding each party’s separate range.
Anti-Bibi Right Zionist
16.4 average seats
80% interval: 13–20
New Hope · Yisrael Beiteinu
Arab / non-Zionist lists
10.6 average seats
80% interval: 7–15
Joint List · Ra'am
Center
23.3 average seats
80% interval: 19–27
Blue and White · Yesh Atid
Haredi
14.6 average seats
80% interval: 12–17
Shas · United Torah Judaism
Left Zionist
8.0 average seats
80% interval: 4–13
Labor · Meretz
Pro-Bibi Right Zionist
35.7 average seats
80% interval: 31–40
Likud · Religious Zionism
FOLLOW THE CAMPAIGN · Vote Share Only
The road to election day
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23 MarLikud30Yesh Atid19Yamina10
Line: headline seats · ◆ Actual result. Gaps mean the party or forecast is unavailable. Uncertainty and threshold probabilities appear below.
PARTY FORECASTS · Vote Share Only
The final call. The actual result.
PARTIES FORECAST TO WIN SEATS13
14 parties in this date’s lineup
MEAN ABSOLUTE SEAT ERROR1.43 seats
14 comparable parties
K24 Vote Share Only forecast on 2021-03-23. Difference is forecast minus actual. Ranges cover the 10th–90th percentiles.
Party / uncertainty
SeatsForecast / actual
DifferenceSeats
Likud
80% range: 29-36Above threshold: 100.0%
30 / 30
0
Yesh Atid
80% range: 17-23Above threshold: 100.0%
19 / 17
+2
Yamina
80% range: 8-13Above threshold: 100.0%
10 / 7
+3
New Hope
80% range: 7-12Above threshold: >99.9%
9 / 6
+3
Joint List
80% range: 6-10Above threshold: 99.8%
8 / 6
+2
Shas
80% range: 6-10Above threshold: >99.9%
7 / 9
-2
United Torah Judaism
80% range: 5-9Above threshold: 99.4%
7 / 7
0
Yisrael Beiteinu
80% range: 5-9Above threshold: 99.8%
7 / 7
0
Labor
80% range: 0-8Above threshold: 88.0%
6 / 7
-1
Religious Zionism
80% range: 0, 4-7 · if representedAbove threshold: 69.4%
5 / 6
-1
Blue and White
80% range: 0, 4-6 · if representedAbove threshold: 67.5%
4 / 8
-4
Meretz
80% range: 0, 4-7 · if representedAbove threshold: 52.0%
4 / 6
-2
Ra'am
80% range: 0, 4-7 · if representedAbove threshold: 51.3%
4 / 4
0
New Economic Party
80% range: 0, 4-10 · if representedAbove threshold: 10.2%
0 / 0
0
Bar = headline forecast · marker = actual. Each available headline totals 120 seats. “0, x–y” means zero seats remains possible; x–y is the 80% range conditional on representation. It is not a continuous interval.
POLLS AND METHODS
The evidence behind this forecast
VOTE-SHARE POLLS33
Polls informing the vote-share forecast
SEAT-POLL RESULTS—
Used only by Vote and Seat Fusion
How are polls counted?
Vote-share polls count distinct surveys used for Vote Share Only. Seat-poll results are the seat-based figures supplied to Vote and Seat Fusion; several results can come from one poll. The groups may overlap, so adding them would not give a reliable number of unique polls. The export does not identify pollsters for each day.
DOWNLOADABLE DATA, VISIBLE LIMITS
Inspect the evidence.
V7 attachment · 183 calendar dates · 181 available snapshots per approach · 13 frozen-horizon parity checks. Vote Share Only is the baseline; Vote and Seat Fusion is an experimental comparison. Exact dependence sensitivity is supplied only for the final Vote Share Only snapshots.