Headline seats
21
Oct 26, 2026
The line shows each snapshot’s headline seat count, not its simulated mean.
Loading forecast / התחזית נטענת
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Which polls to include?
Sensitivity view: all 42 Next Data surveys are omitted, and the model is recalibrated using the remaining polls. Direct Polls remains included. This is an alternative calculation for October 26, not a finding that excluding a pollster improves accuracy.
This view is available for this date only. Published history and the original articles remain separate. Download this scenario’s data
TO 120 · INDEPENDENT ELECTION FORECAST
To 120 is an independent project that helps you understand what the polls say about Israel’s elections. The name is taken from the Hebrew birthday wish (“To 120 years!”) and the number of seats in the Israeli Knesset. The project aims to provide readers interested in the upcoming October 27 election with real, tested, and sophisticated statistical analysis of current polling trends. We give you a daily update with each bloc’s chance of reaching a 61-seat majority, party-level forecasts, daily trends and past elections.
Latest data update: Oct 26, 2026
Information cutoff: Oct 26, 12:41:48 AM (Israel time)
Election day: Oct 27, 2026
Vote Share Only uses polls reporting each party’s percentage of votes. Vote and Seat Fusion also uses seat polls, giving more weight to simulated results that better match those polls.
How the calculation works100,000 simulated election results
Seats · Oct 26, 2026
PARTY TRENDS · Oct 26, 2026 – Oct 26, 2026
Choose a party and a measure. Move across the graph or drag sideways to change the date; all figures update together.
Headline seats
Oct 26, 2026
The line shows each snapshot’s headline seat count, not its simulated mean.
Positive party seat ranges are conditional on entering parliament; zero is shown separately where applicable. An 80% model range is not guaranteed coverage of the real election result.
| Party | Headline seats | Supplied range | Vote share | Chance of entry |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yashar! | 23 | 20–26 | 17.0% | 100.0% |
| Likud | 21 | 17–24 | 15.2% | 100.0% |
| Beyachad | 14 | 11–17 | 10.6% | 100.0% |
| Joint List | 9 | 0, 6–11 | 6.7% | 99.9% |
| The Democrats | 9 | 0, 7–12 | 7.1% | 100.0% |
| Otzma Yehudit | 8 | 0, 6–11 | 6.2% | 99.7% |
| Shas | 8 | 0, 5–10 | 5.8% | 98.7% |
| United Torah Judaism | 8 | 0, 5–10 | 6.0% | 99.4% |
| Yisrael Beiteinu | 8 | 0, 6–10 | 6.1% | 99.5% |
| Religious Zionism–Zehut | 7 | 0, 5–9 | 5.0% | 92.9% |
| Raam | 5 | 0, 4–8 | 4.1% | 71.9% |
| Blue and White | 0 | 0 | 1.0% | 2.0% |
| Haredi Public | 0 | 0 | 0.7% | 1.0% |
| Reservists–Economic | 0 | 0, 4–7 | 3.2% | 41.3% |
| Amcha Yisrael | 0 | 0, 4–7 | 3.0% | 33.3% |
We show the three most recently admitted polls of each type, including ties. When several entered together, the most recently published appears first. The listed date is the publication date, if known.
Latest poll by publication dateChannel 12 · Midgam / Mano Geva
Oct 23, 2026
Channel 12 · Midgam / Mano Geva
Published: Oct 23, 2026
Maariv · Lazar Research / Menachem Lazar / Panel4All
Published: Oct 23, 2026
Kan 11 · Kantar Israel / Dudi Hasid
Published: Oct 23, 2026
Zman Yisrael · Yossi Tatika / Adgenda
Published: Oct 22, 2026
Channel 16 · Maagar Mochot / Yitzhak Katz
Published: Oct 22, 2026
Israel Hayom · Kantar Israel / Dudi Hasid
Published: Oct 22, 2026
Channel 12 · Midgam / Mano Geva
Published: Oct 21, 2026
Latest poll by publication dateChannel 13 · TheMadad / Project HaMidgam / Askaria / Statnet
Oct 23, 2026
Channel 13 · TheMadad / Project HaMidgam / Askaria / Statnet
Published: Oct 23, 2026
This source is still being checked against election committee filings.
i24NEWS · Direct Polls / Tzuriel Sharon
Published: Oct 23, 2026
This source is still being checked against election committee filings.
Channel 13 · TheMadad / Project HaMidgam / Askaria / Statnet
Published: Oct 21, 2026
i24NEWS · Direct Polls / Tzuriel Sharon
Published: Oct 20, 2026
Polls available by this date: 230 · With vote shares: 76 · With seats: 229. Some polls include both. Not every poll contributes to every party.