Vote share
17.9%Since Sep 17, 2026: +0.8 percentage points
Oct 5, 2026
Shading shows the supplied vote-share range; the dashed line marks 3.25%.
Loading forecast / התחזית נטענת
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Which polls to include?
Without Next Data is available only for October 26, 2026.
TO 120 · INDEPENDENT ELECTION FORECAST
To 120 is an independent project that helps you understand what the polls say about Israel’s elections. The name is taken from the Hebrew birthday wish (“To 120 years!”) and the number of seats in the Israeli Knesset. The project aims to provide readers interested in the upcoming October 27 election with real, tested, and sophisticated statistical analysis of current polling trends. We give you a daily update with each bloc’s chance of reaching a 61-seat majority, party-level forecasts, daily trends and past elections.
Latest data update: Oct 26, 2026
Information cutoff: Oct 26, 12:41:48 AM (Israel time)
Election day: Oct 27, 2026
Vote Share Only uses polls reporting each party’s percentage of votes. Vote and Seat Fusion also uses seat polls, giving more weight to simulated results that better match those polls.
How the calculation works100,000 simulated election results
A list needs at least 3.25% of valid votes to enter the Knesset. Estimated vote share measures support; chance of entry measures how often the list clears that threshold in the simulations. These are different percentages.
Lists below are ordered by distance of estimated support from 3.25%. This is display ordering, not a risk rating. All lists remain available, including those with zero headline seats.
Move your mouse or drag a finger across the graph: all figures update together. Keyboard: arrow keys.
Vote share · Oct 5, 2026
PARTY TRENDS · Sep 17, 2026 – Oct 26, 2026
Choose a party and a measure. Move across the graph or drag sideways to change the date; all figures update together.
Vote share
Oct 5, 2026
Shading shows the supplied vote-share range; the dashed line marks 3.25%.
Lines connect daily forecasts, not individual poll results.
Positive party seat ranges are conditional on entering parliament; zero is shown separately where applicable. An 80% model range is not guaranteed coverage of the real election result.
| Party | Headline seats | Supplied range | Vote share | Chance of entry |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Likud | 24 | 20–28 | 17.9% | 100.0% |
| Yashar! | 24 | 20–27 | 17.5% | 100.0% |
| Beyachad | 12 | 9–15 | 9.0% | 100.0% |
| The Democrats | 10 | 0, 7–13 | 7.6% | 100.0% |
| Otzma Yehudit | 8 | 0, 5–11 | 6.1% | 98.3% |
| Shas | 8 | 0, 5–10 | 5.8% | 97.3% |
| United Torah Judaism | 8 | 0, 5–11 | 6.0% | 97.8% |
| Yisrael Beiteinu | 8 | 0, 5–11 | 6.3% | 99.1% |
| Joint List | 7 | 0, 5–10 | 5.7% | 95.5% |
| Religious Zionism–Zehut | 6 | 0, 4–9 | 4.6% | 81.5% |
| Raam | 5 | 0, 4–9 | 4.1% | 67.2% |
| Blue and White | 0 | 0 | 0.8% | 1.7% |
| Haredi Public | 0 | 0 | 0.5% | 1.2% |
| Reservists–Economic | 0 | 0, 4–8 | 2.7% | 25.8% |
| Amcha Yisrael | 0 | 0, 4–8 | 3.0% | 35.5% |
We show the three most recently admitted polls of each type, including ties. When several entered together, the most recently published appears first. The listed date is the publication date, if known.
Polls available by this date: 229 · With vote shares: 78 · With seats: 227. Some polls include both. Not every poll contributes to every party.