Netanyahu-aligned bloc
Seat forecast: 53
Chance of at least 61 seats: 10.0%
Loading forecast / התחזית נטענת
Loading forecast / התחזית נטענת
Which polls to include?
Without Next Data is available only for October 26, 2026.
TO 120 · INDEPENDENT ELECTION FORECAST
To 120 is an independent project that helps you understand what the polls say about Israel’s elections. The name is taken from the Hebrew birthday wish (“To 120 years!”) and the number of seats in the Israeli Knesset. The project aims to provide readers interested in the upcoming October 27 election with real, tested, and sophisticated statistical analysis of current polling trends. We give you a daily update with each bloc’s chance of reaching a 61-seat majority, party-level forecasts, daily trends and past elections.
Latest data update: Oct 26, 2026
Information cutoff: Oct 26, 12:41:48 AM (Israel time)
Election day: Oct 27, 2026
Vote Share Only uses polls reporting each party’s percentage of votes. Vote and Seat Fusion also uses seat polls, giving more weight to simulated results that better match those polls.
How the calculation works100,000 simulated election results
DAILY MOVEMENT
Oct 1, 2026
Move your mouse or drag a finger across the graph. Seats and chances update together. Keyboard: arrow keys.
Seat forecast: 53
Chance of at least 61 seats: 10.0%
Seat forecast: 55
Chance of at least 61 seats: 7.4%
Seat forecast: 67
Chance of at least 61 seats: 76.8%
80% model range*: 47–60 · Average seats: 53.8
Likud · Shas · United Torah Judaism · Otzma Yehudit · Religious Zionism–Zehut · Amcha Yisrael
80% model range*: 47–60 · Average seats: 53.4
Beyachad · Yashar! · Yisrael Beiteinu · The Democrats
80% model range*: 58–71 · Average seats: 64.3
Beyachad · Yashar! · Yisrael Beiteinu · The Democrats · Raam · Joint List
These groupings overlap, so their probabilities do not need to add to 100%. Reaching 61 seats is not the same as forming a government; adding the Zionist Opposition and Arab lists does not assume they would govern together.
* A central 80% model range. With integer seat counts, the share of simulations between the endpoints may differ from exactly 80%. This is not a guarantee of the election result.
How do the 120 seats divide?
Oct 1, 2026 · Vote Share Only
120 seats in the Knesset
120 seats in the Knesset
These charts show the seat allocation for the selected date and approach, not majority chances. Each party belongs to one group; Zionist Opposition plus Arab lists is not a separate slice. Parties with zero seats appear in the key only.
Each curve shows the chance of each seat total for a grouping. The 61-seat line marks a majority; the majority chance includes every result at 61 or above.
Fusion counts each result using its supplied weight.
THREE GROUPINGS · ONE SEAT AXIS
Each line shows the supplied 80% model range; the dot marks average seats across simulations. Download the full simulation results from the data page.
* The range describes the model’s uncertainty, not guaranteed real-world coverage. With integer seats, the share of simulations inside the endpoints may differ from exactly 80%.
We show the three most recently admitted polls of each type, including ties. When several entered together, the most recently published appears first. The listed date is the publication date, if known.
Channel 16 · Maagar Mochot / Yitzhak Katz
Published: Sep 29, 2026
i24NEWS · Direct Polls
Published: Sep 24, 2026
Maariv · Lazar Research / Panel4All
Published: Sep 26, 2026
i24NEWS · Direct Polls / Tzuriel Sharon
Published: Oct 1, 2026
This source is still being checked against election committee filings.
Zman Yisrael · Yossi Tatika / Tatika Research and Media / Adgenda
Published: Oct 1, 2026
This source is still being checked against election committee filings.
Channel 13 · TheMadad / Rosner consortium
Published: Sep 30, 2026
This source is still being checked against election committee filings.
Polls available by this date: 228 · With vote shares: 74 · With seats: 226. Some polls include both. Not every poll contributes to every party.