TO 120 · ISRAEL ELECTION FORECAST
To 120 is an independent project that helps you understand what the polls say about Israel’s elections. Explore each bloc’s chance of reaching 61 seats, party forecasts, daily trends and past elections. The model tests thousands of possible results and shows the uncertainty around its estimates, so you can see what else might happen and examine the data yourself.
FORECAST APPROACH
This approach uses polls that report the percentage of votes each party would receive.
The selected date and approach apply to both charts and every figure below.
How do the 120 seats divide?
Sep 27, 2026 · Vote Share Only
120 seats in the Knesset
120 seats in the Knesset
These charts show the seat allocation for the selected date and approach, not majority chances. Each party belongs to one group; Zionist Opposition plus Arab lists is not a separate slice. Parties with zero seats appear in the key only.
Maariv · Lazar Research / Panel4All
Published: Sep 26, 2026
Channel 16 · Maagar Mochot / Yitzhak Katz
Poll date: Sep 24, 2026 · Publication date not recorded
This source is still being checked against election committee filings.
LATEST FORECAST
100,000 simulated elections in this snapshot
Polls available by this date: 222 total; 73 with vote shares and 220 with seats. Some polls appear in both lanes; these are not necessarily the polls used for each party.
Chance of at least 61 seats
Average seats: 53.3 · 80% range*: 47–60
Chance of at least 61 seats
Average seats: 54.0 · 80% range*: 48–60
Chance of at least 61 seats
Average seats: 64.9 · 80% range*: 58–72
* Eight in ten simulated results fall within this range. Adding the Zionist Opposition and Arab lists’ seats does not predict that they would form a government together.
PARTY TRENDS · SEP 17–27
Choose a party to compare seats, vote share and its chance of clearing the threshold. Move across any graph or drag with a finger to change the date; all three update together.
Headline seats
Sep 27, 2026
The line shows each snapshot’s headline seat count, not its simulated mean.
Vote share
Sep 27, 2026
Shading shows the supplied vote-share range; the dashed line marks 3.25%.
Chance of entry
Sep 27, 2026
The chance of clearing the electoral threshold on each day.
September 17–26 were reconstructed later using information available on each day. Lines connect daily forecasts, not individual poll results.
Among simulations where a party enters the Knesset, eight in ten seat results fall within the shown range. If zero seats is also possible, it is shown separately.
| Party | Seats | Seat range | Vote share | Chance of entry |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | 20–27 | 17.3% | 100.0% | |
| 23 | 19–27 | 17.1% | 100.0% | |
| 13 | 9–16 | 9.5% | 100.0% | |
| 10 | 7–13 | 7.6% | 100.0% | |
| 9 | 6–12 | 6.6% | 99.5% | |
| 8 | 5–11 | 6.1% | 98.3% | |
| 8 | 5–11 | 5.9% | 98.2% | |
| 7 | 5–10 | 5.7% | 96.8% | |
| 7 | 5–10 | 5.6% | 96.4% | |
| 6 | 4–9 | 4.7% | 81.9% | |
| 5 | 0, 4–9 | 4.0% | 62.3% | |
| 0 | 0, 4–8 | 3.1% | 37.6% | |
| 0 | 0, 4–9 | 2.6% | 24.4% | |
| 0 | 0 | 1.2% | 4.8% | |
| 0 | 0 | 0.6% | 1.3% |