Issued 2026-10-26 · polls through 2026-10-23 · R and D arms (public). Future dates are conditional projections, not issued forecasts.
List
Vote share
Party seats / bloc expected seats
Seat range*
Chance of crossing threshold
Blocs
Blocs
Party seats / bloc expected seats
Seat range*
Chance of 61+
The positive seat range is conditional on representation; it is not an unconditional 80% range. Zero is shown separately whenever it has simulated probability. Below 5%, the positive range is hidden although representation remains possible. New evidence is provisional pending reconciliation to CEC filings. Bloc probabilities are conditional on no other unmodelled list crossing the threshold. Bloc ranges are unconditional central 80% ranges.