{"current_information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","row_count":1230,"rows":[{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":17.11520901042183,"contest_party_id":"LIKUD","display_name_en":"Likud","display_name_he":"הליכוד","expected_seats":23.2575,"forecast_date":"2026-09-17","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":23,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-17T23:59:59+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":1.0,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.0,"p_represented":1.0,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_likud","raw_b5_point_pp":17.75091139389861,"seat_q10":17.0,"seat_q90":30.0,"seat_range_display":"17–30","seat_range_high":30,"seat_range_low":17,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"RETROSPECTIVE_CAUSAL_RECONSTRUCTION_NOT_ORIGINALLY_ISSUED","vote_mean_pp":17.11470192377622,"vote_q10_pp":12.737242390688829,"vote_q2_5_pp":10.90183505672908,"vote_q90_pp":21.855299643429,"vote_q97_5_pp":24.925410976415915,"zero_seat_probability":0.0},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":5.468650202820907,"contest_party_id":"SHAS","display_name_en":"Shas","display_name_he":"ש״ס","expected_seats":6.44375,"forecast_date":"2026-09-17","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":7,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-17T23:59:59+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.79295,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.20705,"p_represented":0.79295,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_shas","raw_b5_point_pp":5.671769777125675,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":12.0,"seat_range_display":"5–13","seat_range_high":13,"seat_range_low":5,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"RETROSPECTIVE_CAUSAL_RECONSTRUCTION_NOT_ORIGINALLY_ISSUED","vote_mean_pp":5.468260874938102,"vote_q10_pp":2.5826237214181385,"vote_q2_5_pp":1.7998912947838628,"vote_q90_pp":9.11355719812727,"vote_q97_5_pp":12.586056270357604,"zero_seat_probability":0.20705},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":6.1258474369678,"contest_party_id":"UNITED_TORAH_JUDAISM","display_name_en":"United Torah Judaism","display_name_he":"יהדות התורה","expected_seats":7.60595,"forecast_date":"2026-09-17","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":8,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-17T23:59:59+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.87975,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.12025,"p_represented":0.87975,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_utj","raw_b5_point_pp":6.353376987680519,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":13.0,"seat_range_display":"5–14","seat_range_high":14,"seat_range_low":5,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"RETROSPECTIVE_CAUSAL_RECONSTRUCTION_NOT_ORIGINALLY_ISSUED","vote_mean_pp":6.125698868019145,"vote_q10_pp":3.08280522972388,"vote_q2_5_pp":2.221937761133685,"vote_q90_pp":9.872223228104291,"vote_q97_5_pp":13.291928493440455,"zero_seat_probability":0.12025},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":5.885829484606344,"contest_party_id":"OTZMA_YEHUDIT","display_name_en":"Otzma Yehudit","display_name_he":"עוצמה יהודית","expected_seats":7.22915,"forecast_date":"2026-09-17","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":8,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-17T23:59:59+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.8651,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.1349,"p_represented":0.8651,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_otzma","raw_b5_point_pp":6.104444158246834,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":13.0,"seat_range_display":"5–13","seat_range_high":13,"seat_range_low":5,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"RETROSPECTIVE_CAUSAL_RECONSTRUCTION_NOT_ORIGINALLY_ISSUED","vote_mean_pp":5.885713058648368,"vote_q10_pp":2.9982369096026296,"vote_q2_5_pp":2.169011822615577,"vote_q90_pp":9.408745105438355,"vote_q97_5_pp":12.554950255678767,"zero_seat_probability":0.1349},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":3.953169242163494,"contest_party_id":"K26_NATIVE_LIST::RZP_AND_ZEHUT","display_name_en":"Religious Zionism–Zehut","display_name_he":"הציונות הדתית וזהות","expected_seats":3.77685,"forecast_date":"2026-09-17","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":5,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-17T23:59:59+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.5036,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.4964,"p_represented":0.5036,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_religious_zionism_zehut","raw_b5_point_pp":4.1,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":10.0,"seat_range_display":"0, 4–12","seat_range_high":12,"seat_range_low":4,"seat_range_mode":"ZERO_SEPARATED_CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"RETROSPECTIVE_CAUSAL_RECONSTRUCTION_NOT_ORIGINALLY_ISSUED","vote_mean_pp":3.954005129880982,"vote_q10_pp":1.4081096196263687,"vote_q2_5_pp":0.8802494918650576,"vote_q90_pp":7.274791757465818,"vote_q97_5_pp":11.012995288306639,"zero_seat_probability":0.4964},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":3.210123190261883,"contest_party_id":"WINTER_NEW_PARTY","display_name_en":"Amcha Yisrael","display_name_he":"עמך ישראל","expected_seats":2.6769,"forecast_date":"2026-09-17","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":0,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-17T23:59:59+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.3579,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.6421,"p_represented":0.35795,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_amcha_yisrael","raw_b5_point_pp":3.3293553283012693,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":8.0,"seat_range_display":"0, 4–12","seat_range_high":12,"seat_range_low":4,"seat_range_mode":"ZERO_SEPARATED_CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"RETROSPECTIVE_CAUSAL_RECONSTRUCTION_NOT_ORIGINALLY_ISSUED","vote_mean_pp":3.209962015696712,"vote_q10_pp":0.922209485165247,"vote_q2_5_pp":0.550816643161999,"vote_q90_pp":6.325674240839576,"vote_q97_5_pp":10.171197244898046,"zero_seat_probability":0.64205},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":0.528230480578496,"contest_party_id":"K26_NATIVE_LIST::HAREDI_PUBLIC","display_name_en":"Haredi Public","display_name_he":"הציבור החרדי","expected_seats":0.24595,"forecast_date":"2026-09-17","group_id":"UNCOMMITTED","headline_seats":0,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-17T23:59:59+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.028200000000000003,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.9718,"p_represented":0.0282,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_haredi_public","raw_b5_point_pp":0.547850303820173,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":0.0,"seat_range_display":"0","seat_range_high":null,"seat_range_low":null,"seat_range_mode":"ZERO_ONLY_RARE_REPRESENTATION","snapshot_status":"RETROSPECTIVE_CAUSAL_RECONSTRUCTION_NOT_ORIGINALLY_ISSUED","vote_mean_pp":0.5287515232162062,"vote_q10_pp":0.019003408642551865,"vote_q2_5_pp":0.006462502293485873,"vote_q90_pp":1.1947334513852002,"vote_q97_5_pp":3.5290092152346832,"zero_seat_probability":0.9718},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":9.94708058841424,"contest_party_id":"K26_NATIVE_LIST::BEYAHAD_BENNETT","display_name_en":"Beyachad","display_name_he":"ביחד","expected_seats":13.3124,"forecast_date":"2026-09-17","group_id":"CHANGE_CORE","headline_seats":13,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-17T23:59:59+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.9997,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.0003,"p_represented":0.9997,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_beyachad","raw_b5_point_pp":10.316540455065011,"seat_q10":8.0,"seat_q90":19.0,"seat_range_display":"8–19","seat_range_high":19,"seat_range_low":8,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"RETROSPECTIVE_CAUSAL_RECONSTRUCTION_NOT_ORIGINALLY_ISSUED","vote_mean_pp":9.946834052549022,"vote_q10_pp":6.281109774545897,"vote_q2_5_pp":5.008969149860638,"vote_q90_pp":14.230646555712246,"vote_q97_5_pp":17.28874285989408,"zero_seat_probability":0.0003},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":17.642075801098375,"contest_party_id":"YASHAR_GADI_EISENKOT","display_name_en":"Yashar!","display_name_he":"ישר!","expected_seats":23.98865,"forecast_date":"2026-09-17","group_id":"CHANGE_CORE","headline_seats":24,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-17T23:59:59+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":1.0,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.0,"p_represented":1.0,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_yashar","raw_b5_point_pp":18.29734735690626,"seat_q10":18.0,"seat_q90":31.0,"seat_range_display":"18–31","seat_range_high":31,"seat_range_low":18,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"RETROSPECTIVE_CAUSAL_RECONSTRUCTION_NOT_ORIGINALLY_ISSUED","vote_mean_pp":17.641697704489147,"vote_q10_pp":13.070162066721196,"vote_q2_5_pp":11.186980462904536,"vote_q90_pp":22.542827751085564,"vote_q97_5_pp":25.67978181613373,"zero_seat_probability":0.0},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":6.5703709052730375,"contest_party_id":"YISRAEL_BEITEINU","display_name_en":"Yisrael Beiteinu","display_name_he":"ישראל ביתנו","expected_seats":8.35575,"forecast_date":"2026-09-17","group_id":"CHANGE_CORE","headline_seats":9,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-17T23:59:59+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.92435,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.07565,"p_represented":0.92435,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_yisrael_beiteinu","raw_b5_point_pp":6.814411187940062,"seat_q10":4.0,"seat_q90":14.0,"seat_range_display":"5–14","seat_range_high":14,"seat_range_low":5,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"RETROSPECTIVE_CAUSAL_RECONSTRUCTION_NOT_ORIGINALLY_ISSUED","vote_mean_pp":6.569998594481603,"vote_q10_pp":3.4851668058838734,"vote_q2_5_pp":2.6234792165683944,"vote_q90_pp":10.29987014755734,"vote_q97_5_pp":13.506135636176786,"zero_seat_probability":0.07565},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":7.444510079826851,"contest_party_id":"THE_DEMOCRATS","display_name_en":"The Democrats","display_name_he":"הדמוקרטים","expected_seats":9.7299,"forecast_date":"2026-09-17","group_id":"CHANGE_CORE","headline_seats":10,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-17T23:59:59+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.96895,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.03105,"p_represented":0.96895,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_democrats","raw_b5_point_pp":7.721018114212006,"seat_q10":5.0,"seat_q90":15.0,"seat_range_display":"6–16","seat_range_high":16,"seat_range_low":6,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"RETROSPECTIVE_CAUSAL_RECONSTRUCTION_NOT_ORIGINALLY_ISSUED","vote_mean_pp":7.443879920438578,"vote_q10_pp":4.1415062363324004,"vote_q2_5_pp":3.1511624769361353,"vote_q90_pp":11.423010223244711,"vote_q97_5_pp":14.770480409386836,"zero_seat_probability":0.03105},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":3.6987000960669754,"contest_party_id":"RAAM","display_name_en":"Raam","display_name_he":"רע״ם","expected_seats":3.35895,"forecast_date":"2026-09-17","group_id":"ARAB_LISTS","headline_seats":5,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-17T23:59:59+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.4557,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.5443,"p_represented":0.4557,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_raam","raw_b5_point_pp":3.836079222749204,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":9.0,"seat_range_display":"0, 4–12","seat_range_high":12,"seat_range_low":4,"seat_range_mode":"ZERO_SEPARATED_CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"RETROSPECTIVE_CAUSAL_RECONSTRUCTION_NOT_ORIGINALLY_ISSUED","vote_mean_pp":3.698507863609877,"vote_q10_pp":1.2885777741465951,"vote_q2_5_pp":0.8080462839378676,"vote_q90_pp":6.922146960623036,"vote_q97_5_pp":10.5677971455073,"zero_seat_probability":0.5443},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":5.737068715614603,"contest_party_id":"HADASH_TAAL_BALAD","display_name_en":"Joint List","display_name_he":"הרשימה המשותפת","expected_seats":6.89765,"forecast_date":"2026-09-17","group_id":"ARAB_LISTS","headline_seats":8,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-17T23:59:59+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.82145,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.17855,"p_represented":0.82145,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_joint_list","raw_b5_point_pp":5.950158036023456,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":13.0,"seat_range_display":"5–13","seat_range_high":13,"seat_range_low":5,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"RETROSPECTIVE_CAUSAL_RECONSTRUCTION_NOT_ORIGINALLY_ISSUED","vote_mean_pp":5.737083490318392,"vote_q10_pp":2.7209868649504387,"vote_q2_5_pp":1.9439827693750402,"vote_q90_pp":9.501828501763697,"vote_q97_5_pp":13.107555528365,"zero_seat_probability":0.17855},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":1.0481605979409576,"contest_party_id":"BLUE_WHITE","display_name_en":"Blue and White","display_name_he":"כחול לבן","expected_seats":0.4393,"forecast_date":"2026-09-17","group_id":"UNCOMMITTED","headline_seats":0,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-17T23:59:59+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.05889999999999995,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.9411,"p_represented":0.0589,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_blue_white","raw_b5_point_pp":1.0870919478281706,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":0.0,"seat_range_display":"0, 4–12","seat_range_high":12,"seat_range_low":4,"seat_range_mode":"ZERO_SEPARATED_CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"RETROSPECTIVE_CAUSAL_RECONSTRUCTION_NOT_ORIGINALLY_ISSUED","vote_mean_pp":1.0485009570215,"vote_q10_pp":0.13347172723747902,"vote_q2_5_pp":0.06058912573861228,"vote_q90_pp":2.4066996199237494,"vote_q97_5_pp":4.964934567171335,"zero_seat_probability":0.9411},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":3.2249741679442003,"contest_party_id":"K26_NATIVE_LIST::RESERVISTS_AND_NEW_ECONOMIC_PARTY","display_name_en":"Reservists–Economic","display_name_he":"המילואימניקים והכלכלית","expected_seats":2.68135,"forecast_date":"2026-09-17","group_id":"UNCOMMITTED","headline_seats":0,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-17T23:59:59+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.36014999999999997,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.63985,"p_represented":0.36015,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_reservists_economic","raw_b5_point_pp":3.3447579090580133,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":8.0,"seat_range_display":"0, 4–12","seat_range_high":12,"seat_range_low":4,"seat_range_mode":"ZERO_SEPARATED_CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"RETROSPECTIVE_CAUSAL_RECONSTRUCTION_NOT_ORIGINALLY_ISSUED","vote_mean_pp":3.226404022916143,"vote_q10_pp":0.9611923177863427,"vote_q2_5_pp":0.5731923914824684,"vote_q90_pp":6.35733984792511,"vote_q97_5_pp":10.153853805850813,"zero_seat_probability":0.63985},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":17.11520901042183,"contest_party_id":"LIKUD","display_name_en":"Likud","display_name_he":"הליכוד","expected_seats":24.15497494180035,"forecast_date":"2026-09-17","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":24,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-17T23:59:59+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":1.0,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.0,"p_represented":1.0,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_likud","raw_b5_point_pp":17.75091139389861,"seat_q10":18.0,"seat_q90":30.0,"seat_range_display":"18–30","seat_range_high":30,"seat_range_low":18,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"RETROSPECTIVE_CAUSAL_RECONSTRUCTION_NOT_ORIGINALLY_ISSUED","vote_mean_pp":17.954473941084935,"vote_q10_pp":13.828860083331719,"vote_q2_5_pp":11.947006605795053,"vote_q90_pp":22.326996268280027,"vote_q97_5_pp":24.7327068419888,"zero_seat_probability":0.0},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":5.468650202820907,"contest_party_id":"SHAS","display_name_en":"Shas","display_name_he":"ש״ס","expected_seats":7.441796199155222,"forecast_date":"2026-09-17","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":8,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-17T23:59:59+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.9211836721886199,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.07881632781138011,"p_represented":0.92118367218862,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_shas","raw_b5_point_pp":5.671769777125675,"seat_q10":4.0,"seat_q90":11.0,"seat_range_display":"5–12","seat_range_high":12,"seat_range_low":5,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"RETROSPECTIVE_CAUSAL_RECONSTRUCTION_NOT_ORIGINALLY_ISSUED","vote_mean_pp":5.958784272222317,"vote_q10_pp":3.448057198977894,"vote_q2_5_pp":2.30936493303262,"vote_q90_pp":8.671948345837519,"vote_q97_5_pp":11.346733083230252,"zero_seat_probability":0.07881632781138011},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":6.1258474369678,"contest_party_id":"UNITED_TORAH_JUDAISM","display_name_en":"United Torah Judaism","display_name_he":"יהדות התורה","expected_seats":7.650329220293861,"forecast_date":"2026-09-17","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":8,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-17T23:59:59+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.9503239398435552,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.0496760601564448,"p_represented":0.9503239398435552,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_utj","raw_b5_point_pp":6.353376987680519,"seat_q10":5.0,"seat_q90":11.0,"seat_range_display":"5–11","seat_range_high":11,"seat_range_low":5,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"RETROSPECTIVE_CAUSAL_RECONSTRUCTION_NOT_ORIGINALLY_ISSUED","vote_mean_pp":6.053680062235995,"vote_q10_pp":3.734219942842664,"vote_q2_5_pp":2.7010284382813112,"vote_q90_pp":8.586117758573108,"vote_q97_5_pp":11.557234973345487,"zero_seat_probability":0.0496760601564448},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":5.885829484606344,"contest_party_id":"OTZMA_YEHUDIT","display_name_en":"Otzma Yehudit","display_name_he":"עוצמה יהודית","expected_seats":7.586135072895056,"forecast_date":"2026-09-17","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":8,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-17T23:59:59+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.9443671318728492,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.05563286812715081,"p_represented":0.9443671318728492,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_otzma","raw_b5_point_pp":6.104444158246834,"seat_q10":5.0,"seat_q90":11.0,"seat_range_display":"5–11","seat_range_high":11,"seat_range_low":5,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"RETROSPECTIVE_CAUSAL_RECONSTRUCTION_NOT_ORIGINALLY_ISSUED","vote_mean_pp":6.014333250291939,"vote_q10_pp":3.688819993482965,"vote_q2_5_pp":2.694384255197076,"vote_q90_pp":8.482034798706836,"vote_q97_5_pp":10.958158283347078,"zero_seat_probability":0.05563286812715081},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":3.953169242163494,"contest_party_id":"K26_NATIVE_LIST::RZP_AND_ZEHUT","display_name_en":"Religious Zionism–Zehut","display_name_he":"הציונות הדתית וזהות","expected_seats":4.192000636409474,"forecast_date":"2026-09-17","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":5,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-17T23:59:59+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.6195470415203286,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.38045295847967137,"p_represented":0.6195470415203286,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_religious_zionism_zehut","raw_b5_point_pp":4.1,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":9.0,"seat_range_display":"0, 4–10","seat_range_high":10,"seat_range_low":4,"seat_range_mode":"ZERO_SEPARATED_CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"RETROSPECTIVE_CAUSAL_RECONSTRUCTION_NOT_ORIGINALLY_ISSUED","vote_mean_pp":4.092498843545378,"vote_q10_pp":1.5987329004504474,"vote_q2_5_pp":0.9682693170056165,"vote_q90_pp":6.818516080590097,"vote_q97_5_pp":9.07803515264431,"zero_seat_probability":0.38045295847967137},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":3.210123190261883,"contest_party_id":"WINTER_NEW_PARTY","display_name_en":"Amcha Yisrael","display_name_he":"עמך ישראל","expected_seats":2.041999945157415,"forecast_date":"2026-09-17","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":0,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-17T23:59:59+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.32599013912035035,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.6740098608796496,"p_represented":0.3261933611389142,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_amcha_yisrael","raw_b5_point_pp":3.3293553283012693,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":6.0,"seat_range_display":"0, 4–9","seat_range_high":9,"seat_range_low":4,"seat_range_mode":"ZERO_SEPARATED_CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"RETROSPECTIVE_CAUSAL_RECONSTRUCTION_NOT_ORIGINALLY_ISSUED","vote_mean_pp":2.8208093423230403,"vote_q10_pp":0.9038358660386955,"vote_q2_5_pp":0.5448760815098883,"vote_q90_pp":5.123641601784545,"vote_q97_5_pp":7.326748190388471,"zero_seat_probability":0.6738066388610857},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":0.528230480578496,"contest_party_id":"K26_NATIVE_LIST::HAREDI_PUBLIC","display_name_en":"Haredi Public","display_name_he":"הציבור החרדי","expected_seats":0.045090926497908794,"forecast_date":"2026-09-17","group_id":"UNCOMMITTED","headline_seats":0,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-17T23:59:59+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.005615708465613545,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.9943842915343865,"p_represented":0.005615708465613451,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_haredi_public","raw_b5_point_pp":0.547850303820173,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":0.0,"seat_range_display":"0","seat_range_high":null,"seat_range_low":null,"seat_range_mode":"ZERO_ONLY_RARE_REPRESENTATION","snapshot_status":"RETROSPECTIVE_CAUSAL_RECONSTRUCTION_NOT_ORIGINALLY_ISSUED","vote_mean_pp":0.3643277514666293,"vote_q10_pp":0.018115263068707196,"vote_q2_5_pp":0.006301493617591246,"vote_q90_pp":0.9255470768864412,"vote_q97_5_pp":2.2061346195675817,"zero_seat_probability":0.9943842915343865},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":9.94708058841424,"contest_party_id":"K26_NATIVE_LIST::BEYAHAD_BENNETT","display_name_en":"Beyachad","display_name_he":"ביחד","expected_seats":13.215330985855216,"forecast_date":"2026-09-17","group_id":"CHANGE_CORE","headline_seats":13,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-17T23:59:59+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.9999797018617191,"p_below_legal_threshold":2.0298138280811018e-05,"p_represented":0.9999797018617193,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_beyachad","raw_b5_point_pp":10.316540455065011,"seat_q10":9.0,"seat_q90":18.0,"seat_range_display":"9–18","seat_range_high":18,"seat_range_low":9,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"RETROSPECTIVE_CAUSAL_RECONSTRUCTION_NOT_ORIGINALLY_ISSUED","vote_mean_pp":9.983826985236732,"vote_q10_pp":6.792531747545594,"vote_q2_5_pp":5.528505425472447,"vote_q90_pp":13.483781860098839,"vote_q97_5_pp":15.963062034389683,"zero_seat_probability":2.0298138280811018e-05},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":17.642075801098375,"contest_party_id":"YASHAR_GADI_EISENKOT","display_name_en":"Yashar!","display_name_he":"ישר!","expected_seats":24.191098956688613,"forecast_date":"2026-09-17","group_id":"CHANGE_CORE","headline_seats":24,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-17T23:59:59+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":1.0,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.0,"p_represented":1.0,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_yashar","raw_b5_point_pp":18.29734735690626,"seat_q10":20.0,"seat_q90":29.0,"seat_range_display":"20–29","seat_range_high":29,"seat_range_low":20,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"RETROSPECTIVE_CAUSAL_RECONSTRUCTION_NOT_ORIGINALLY_ISSUED","vote_mean_pp":17.98256151324516,"vote_q10_pp":14.568068730463397,"vote_q2_5_pp":12.981340965349961,"vote_q90_pp":21.654664468418684,"vote_q97_5_pp":24.988477570045035,"zero_seat_probability":0.0},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":6.5703709052730375,"contest_party_id":"YISRAEL_BEITEINU","display_name_en":"Yisrael Beiteinu","display_name_he":"ישראל ביתנו","expected_seats":8.099682943469846,"forecast_date":"2026-09-17","group_id":"CHANGE_CORE","headline_seats":8,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-17T23:59:59+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.9675135983573434,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.03248640164265663,"p_represented":0.9675135983573433,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_yisrael_beiteinu","raw_b5_point_pp":6.814411187940062,"seat_q10":5.0,"seat_q90":12.0,"seat_range_display":"5–12","seat_range_high":12,"seat_range_low":5,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"RETROSPECTIVE_CAUSAL_RECONSTRUCTION_NOT_ORIGINALLY_ISSUED","vote_mean_pp":6.34139930496926,"vote_q10_pp":3.9981820280734612,"vote_q2_5_pp":3.091340363176683,"vote_q90_pp":8.912663249810542,"vote_q97_5_pp":12.0949505807373,"zero_seat_probability":0.03248640164265663},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":7.444510079826851,"contest_party_id":"THE_DEMOCRATS","display_name_en":"The Democrats","display_name_he":"הדמוקרטים","expected_seats":9.82234738154577,"forecast_date":"2026-09-17","group_id":"CHANGE_CORE","headline_seats":10,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-17T23:59:59+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.9924542130802536,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.007545786919746349,"p_represented":0.9924542130802535,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_democrats","raw_b5_point_pp":7.721018114212006,"seat_q10":6.0,"seat_q90":14.0,"seat_range_display":"6–14","seat_range_high":14,"seat_range_low":6,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"RETROSPECTIVE_CAUSAL_RECONSTRUCTION_NOT_ORIGINALLY_ISSUED","vote_mean_pp":7.53380074936876,"vote_q10_pp":4.929278742821895,"vote_q2_5_pp":3.906168144455785,"vote_q90_pp":10.277855628682506,"vote_q97_5_pp":13.379238440113438,"zero_seat_probability":0.007545786919746349},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":3.6987000960669754,"contest_party_id":"RAAM","display_name_en":"Raam","display_name_he":"רע״ם","expected_seats":3.2501913716551245,"forecast_date":"2026-09-17","group_id":"ARAB_LISTS","headline_seats":4,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-17T23:59:59+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.5073393959544983,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.4926606040455017,"p_represented":0.5073393959544982,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_raam","raw_b5_point_pp":3.836079222749204,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":8.0,"seat_range_display":"0, 4–9","seat_range_high":9,"seat_range_low":4,"seat_range_mode":"ZERO_SEPARATED_CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"RETROSPECTIVE_CAUSAL_RECONSTRUCTION_NOT_ORIGINALLY_ISSUED","vote_mean_pp":3.565561740897299,"vote_q10_pp":1.3315086907608726,"vote_q2_5_pp":0.842182652163593,"vote_q90_pp":6.059841753402228,"vote_q97_5_pp":8.503963764159085,"zero_seat_probability":0.4926606040455017},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":5.737068715614603,"contest_party_id":"HADASH_TAAL_BALAD","display_name_en":"Joint List","display_name_he":"הרשימה המשותפת","expected_seats":7.192114144899839,"forecast_date":"2026-09-17","group_id":"ARAB_LISTS","headline_seats":8,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-17T23:59:59+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.9182846711648204,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.08171532883517961,"p_represented":0.9182846711648203,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_joint_list","raw_b5_point_pp":5.950158036023456,"seat_q10":4.0,"seat_q90":11.0,"seat_range_display":"5–11","seat_range_high":11,"seat_range_low":5,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"RETROSPECTIVE_CAUSAL_RECONSTRUCTION_NOT_ORIGINALLY_ISSUED","vote_mean_pp":5.785917510253869,"vote_q10_pp":3.402409286077572,"vote_q2_5_pp":2.316848177185855,"vote_q90_pp":8.356399369715056,"vote_q97_5_pp":11.394780217738674,"zero_seat_probability":0.08171532883517961},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":1.0481605979409576,"contest_party_id":"BLUE_WHITE","display_name_en":"Blue and White","display_name_he":"כחול לבן","expected_seats":0.10747264706322886,"forecast_date":"2026-09-17","group_id":"UNCOMMITTED","headline_seats":0,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-17T23:59:59+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.014839358129940527,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.9851606418700595,"p_represented":0.01483935812994048,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_blue_white","raw_b5_point_pp":1.0870919478281706,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":0.0,"seat_range_display":"0","seat_range_high":null,"seat_range_low":null,"seat_range_mode":"ZERO_ONLY_RARE_REPRESENTATION","snapshot_status":"RETROSPECTIVE_CAUSAL_RECONSTRUCTION_NOT_ORIGINALLY_ISSUED","vote_mean_pp":0.8138457847136524,"vote_q10_pp":0.12972603012677084,"vote_q2_5_pp":0.05714245853478367,"vote_q90_pp":1.835858948770077,"vote_q97_5_pp":2.962280133684717,"zero_seat_probability":0.9851606418700595},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":3.2249741679442003,"contest_party_id":"K26_NATIVE_LIST::RESERVISTS_AND_NEW_ECONOMIC_PARTY","display_name_en":"Reservists–Economic","display_name_he":"המילואימניקים והכלכלית","expected_seats":1.0094346266130736,"forecast_date":"2026-09-17","group_id":"UNCOMMITTED","headline_seats":0,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-17T23:59:59+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.13462319846722648,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.8653768015327735,"p_represented":0.13462319846722645,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_reservists_economic","raw_b5_point_pp":3.3447579090580133,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":5.0,"seat_range_display":"0, 4–12","seat_range_high":12,"seat_range_low":4,"seat_range_mode":"ZERO_SEPARATED_CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"RETROSPECTIVE_CAUSAL_RECONSTRUCTION_NOT_ORIGINALLY_ISSUED","vote_mean_pp":2.334178948145032,"vote_q10_pp":0.8432341724203275,"vote_q2_5_pp":0.49337155615369066,"vote_q90_pp":3.9478475691660133,"vote_q97_5_pp":7.620917342197867,"zero_seat_probability":0.8653768015327735},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":17.11520901042183,"contest_party_id":"LIKUD","display_name_en":"Likud","display_name_he":"הליכוד","expected_seats":23.2574,"forecast_date":"2026-09-18","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":23,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-18T23:59:59+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":1.0,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.0,"p_represented":1.0,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_likud","raw_b5_point_pp":17.75091139389861,"seat_q10":17.0,"seat_q90":30.0,"seat_range_display":"17–30","seat_range_high":30,"seat_range_low":17,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"RETROSPECTIVE_CAUSAL_RECONSTRUCTION_NOT_ORIGINALLY_ISSUED","vote_mean_pp":17.11588086988111,"vote_q10_pp":12.952945642152278,"vote_q2_5_pp":11.208027946999197,"vote_q90_pp":21.656100708347584,"vote_q97_5_pp":24.407774949754295,"zero_seat_probability":0.0},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":5.468650202820907,"contest_party_id":"SHAS","display_name_en":"Shas","display_name_he":"ש״ס","expected_seats":6.47265,"forecast_date":"2026-09-18","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":7,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-18T23:59:59+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.80425,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.19575,"p_represented":0.80425,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_shas","raw_b5_point_pp":5.671769777125675,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":12.0,"seat_range_display":"5–13","seat_range_high":13,"seat_range_low":5,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"RETROSPECTIVE_CAUSAL_RECONSTRUCTION_NOT_ORIGINALLY_ISSUED","vote_mean_pp":5.469096809390082,"vote_q10_pp":2.630204191225452,"vote_q2_5_pp":1.854158953005645,"vote_q90_pp":9.033849443218918,"vote_q97_5_pp":12.339976234845073,"zero_seat_probability":0.19575},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":6.1258474369678,"contest_party_id":"UNITED_TORAH_JUDAISM","display_name_en":"United Torah Judaism","display_name_he":"יהדות התורה","expected_seats":7.6331,"forecast_date":"2026-09-18","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":8,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-18T23:59:59+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.88835,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.11165,"p_represented":0.88835,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_utj","raw_b5_point_pp":6.353376987680519,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":13.0,"seat_range_display":"5–13","seat_range_high":13,"seat_range_low":5,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"RETROSPECTIVE_CAUSAL_RECONSTRUCTION_NOT_ORIGINALLY_ISSUED","vote_mean_pp":6.125602066891216,"vote_q10_pp":3.1630002093345,"vote_q2_5_pp":2.293126320039282,"vote_q90_pp":9.787882260781283,"vote_q97_5_pp":12.884387426188221,"zero_seat_probability":0.11165},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":5.885829484606344,"contest_party_id":"OTZMA_YEHUDIT","display_name_en":"Otzma Yehudit","display_name_he":"עוצמה יהודית","expected_seats":7.2438,"forecast_date":"2026-09-18","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":8,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-18T23:59:59+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.87515,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.12485,"p_represented":0.87515,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_otzma","raw_b5_point_pp":6.104444158246834,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":12.0,"seat_range_display":"5–13","seat_range_high":13,"seat_range_low":5,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"RETROSPECTIVE_CAUSAL_RECONSTRUCTION_NOT_ORIGINALLY_ISSUED","vote_mean_pp":5.885344395118277,"vote_q10_pp":3.073869372880096,"vote_q2_5_pp":2.2796308481894108,"vote_q90_pp":9.263979102931746,"vote_q97_5_pp":12.32399876832629,"zero_seat_probability":0.12485},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":3.953169242163494,"contest_party_id":"K26_NATIVE_LIST::RZP_AND_ZEHUT","display_name_en":"Religious Zionism–Zehut","display_name_he":"הציונות הדתית וזהות","expected_seats":3.7515,"forecast_date":"2026-09-18","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":5,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-18T23:59:59+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.5063500000000001,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.49365,"p_represented":0.50635,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_religious_zionism_zehut","raw_b5_point_pp":4.1,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":9.0,"seat_range_display":"0, 4–12","seat_range_high":12,"seat_range_low":4,"seat_range_mode":"ZERO_SEPARATED_CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"RETROSPECTIVE_CAUSAL_RECONSTRUCTION_NOT_ORIGINALLY_ISSUED","vote_mean_pp":3.9520563844389973,"vote_q10_pp":1.4731349032295664,"vote_q2_5_pp":0.9636870722529975,"vote_q90_pp":7.209699455870447,"vote_q97_5_pp":10.921886080166916,"zero_seat_probability":0.49365},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":3.210123190261883,"contest_party_id":"WINTER_NEW_PARTY","display_name_en":"Amcha Yisrael","display_name_he":"עמך ישראל","expected_seats":2.64395,"forecast_date":"2026-09-18","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":0,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-18T23:59:59+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.3591,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.6409,"p_represented":0.3591,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_amcha_yisrael","raw_b5_point_pp":3.3293553283012693,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":8.0,"seat_range_display":"0, 4–12","seat_range_high":12,"seat_range_low":4,"seat_range_mode":"ZERO_SEPARATED_CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"RETROSPECTIVE_CAUSAL_RECONSTRUCTION_NOT_ORIGINALLY_ISSUED","vote_mean_pp":3.209763855463179,"vote_q10_pp":0.9619702239838637,"vote_q2_5_pp":0.5698975568090099,"vote_q90_pp":6.32093473155923,"vote_q97_5_pp":10.043553557577711,"zero_seat_probability":0.6409},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":0.528230480578496,"contest_party_id":"K26_NATIVE_LIST::HAREDI_PUBLIC","display_name_en":"Haredi Public","display_name_he":"הציבור החרדי","expected_seats":0.24925,"forecast_date":"2026-09-18","group_id":"UNCOMMITTED","headline_seats":0,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-18T23:59:59+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.02805000000000002,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.97195,"p_represented":0.02805,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_haredi_public","raw_b5_point_pp":0.547850303820173,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":0.0,"seat_range_display":"0","seat_range_high":null,"seat_range_low":null,"seat_range_mode":"ZERO_ONLY_RARE_REPRESENTATION","snapshot_status":"RETROSPECTIVE_CAUSAL_RECONSTRUCTION_NOT_ORIGINALLY_ISSUED","vote_mean_pp":0.5274338175611694,"vote_q10_pp":0.019888636319310486,"vote_q2_5_pp":0.006716231216044398,"vote_q90_pp":1.1566585634994035,"vote_q97_5_pp":3.561595209299391,"zero_seat_probability":0.97195},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":9.94708058841424,"contest_party_id":"K26_NATIVE_LIST::BEYAHAD_BENNETT","display_name_en":"Beyachad","display_name_he":"ביחד","expected_seats":13.31185,"forecast_date":"2026-09-18","group_id":"CHANGE_CORE","headline_seats":13,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-18T23:59:59+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.9993,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.0007,"p_represented":0.9993,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_beyachad","raw_b5_point_pp":10.316540455065011,"seat_q10":8.0,"seat_q90":19.0,"seat_range_display":"8–19","seat_range_high":19,"seat_range_low":8,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"RETROSPECTIVE_CAUSAL_RECONSTRUCTION_NOT_ORIGINALLY_ISSUED","vote_mean_pp":9.948059766581713,"vote_q10_pp":6.364279937668337,"vote_q2_5_pp":5.09444031283194,"vote_q90_pp":14.009341372879295,"vote_q97_5_pp":16.890040222432773,"zero_seat_probability":0.0007},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":17.642075801098375,"contest_party_id":"YASHAR_GADI_EISENKOT","display_name_en":"Yashar!","display_name_he":"ישר!","expected_seats":23.98925,"forecast_date":"2026-09-18","group_id":"CHANGE_CORE","headline_seats":24,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-18T23:59:59+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":1.0,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.0,"p_represented":1.0,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_yashar","raw_b5_point_pp":18.29734735690626,"seat_q10":18.0,"seat_q90":31.0,"seat_range_display":"18–31","seat_range_high":31,"seat_range_low":18,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"RETROSPECTIVE_CAUSAL_RECONSTRUCTION_NOT_ORIGINALLY_ISSUED","vote_mean_pp":17.642587443837947,"vote_q10_pp":13.244952680975931,"vote_q2_5_pp":11.458913843978124,"vote_q90_pp":22.34741484418652,"vote_q97_5_pp":25.458324238231665,"zero_seat_probability":0.0},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":6.5703709052730375,"contest_party_id":"YISRAEL_BEITEINU","display_name_en":"Yisrael Beiteinu","display_name_he":"ישראל ביתנו","expected_seats":8.3818,"forecast_date":"2026-09-18","group_id":"CHANGE_CORE","headline_seats":9,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-18T23:59:59+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.9305,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.0695,"p_represented":0.9305,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_yisrael_beiteinu","raw_b5_point_pp":6.814411187940062,"seat_q10":4.0,"seat_q90":14.0,"seat_range_display":"5–14","seat_range_high":14,"seat_range_low":5,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"RETROSPECTIVE_CAUSAL_RECONSTRUCTION_NOT_ORIGINALLY_ISSUED","vote_mean_pp":6.570742954584348,"vote_q10_pp":3.5323480229782955,"vote_q2_5_pp":2.6225868060388957,"vote_q90_pp":10.247134356352177,"vote_q97_5_pp":13.305598828279726,"zero_seat_probability":0.0695},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":7.444510079826851,"contest_party_id":"THE_DEMOCRATS","display_name_en":"The Democrats","display_name_he":"הדמוקרטים","expected_seats":9.7391,"forecast_date":"2026-09-18","group_id":"CHANGE_CORE","headline_seats":10,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-18T23:59:59+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.97305,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.02695,"p_represented":0.97305,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_democrats","raw_b5_point_pp":7.721018114212006,"seat_q10":5.0,"seat_q90":15.0,"seat_range_display":"6–15","seat_range_high":15,"seat_range_low":6,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"RETROSPECTIVE_CAUSAL_RECONSTRUCTION_NOT_ORIGINALLY_ISSUED","vote_mean_pp":7.445000931894928,"vote_q10_pp":4.231319185746583,"vote_q2_5_pp":3.2088309473140937,"vote_q90_pp":11.300501471380363,"vote_q97_5_pp":14.378857640174413,"zero_seat_probability":0.02695},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":3.6987000960669754,"contest_party_id":"RAAM","display_name_en":"Raam","display_name_he":"רע״ם","expected_seats":3.34115,"forecast_date":"2026-09-18","group_id":"ARAB_LISTS","headline_seats":5,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-18T23:59:59+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.4585,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.5415,"p_represented":0.4585,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_raam","raw_b5_point_pp":3.836079222749204,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":9.0,"seat_range_display":"0, 4–12","seat_range_high":12,"seat_range_low":4,"seat_range_mode":"ZERO_SEPARATED_CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"RETROSPECTIVE_CAUSAL_RECONSTRUCTION_NOT_ORIGINALLY_ISSUED","vote_mean_pp":3.698214093774182,"vote_q10_pp":1.3360178439102182,"vote_q2_5_pp":0.8440598307674273,"vote_q90_pp":6.849431161584399,"vote_q97_5_pp":10.345151929706848,"zero_seat_probability":0.5415},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":5.737068715614603,"contest_party_id":"HADASH_TAAL_BALAD","display_name_en":"Joint List","display_name_he":"הרשימה המשותפת","expected_seats":6.91365,"forecast_date":"2026-09-18","group_id":"ARAB_LISTS","headline_seats":8,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-18T23:59:59+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.8290500000000001,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.17095,"p_represented":0.82905,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_joint_list","raw_b5_point_pp":5.950158036023456,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":13.0,"seat_range_display":"5–13","seat_range_high":13,"seat_range_low":5,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"RETROSPECTIVE_CAUSAL_RECONSTRUCTION_NOT_ORIGINALLY_ISSUED","vote_mean_pp":5.737174190955118,"vote_q10_pp":2.7788459722787624,"vote_q2_5_pp":1.9707691879700904,"vote_q90_pp":9.436971208320335,"vote_q97_5_pp":12.811849768502672,"zero_seat_probability":0.17095},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":1.0481605979409576,"contest_party_id":"BLUE_WHITE","display_name_en":"Blue and White","display_name_he":"כחול לבן","expected_seats":0.40515,"forecast_date":"2026-09-18","group_id":"UNCOMMITTED","headline_seats":0,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-18T23:59:59+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.056499999999999995,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.9435,"p_represented":0.0565,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_blue_white","raw_b5_point_pp":1.0870919478281706,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":0.0,"seat_range_display":"0, 4–12","seat_range_high":12,"seat_range_low":4,"seat_range_mode":"ZERO_SEPARATED_CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"RETROSPECTIVE_CAUSAL_RECONSTRUCTION_NOT_ORIGINALLY_ISSUED","vote_mean_pp":1.0474509823741265,"vote_q10_pp":0.14022400756808903,"vote_q2_5_pp":0.06416077206141241,"vote_q90_pp":2.3832314013414044,"vote_q97_5_pp":4.835912330485662,"zero_seat_probability":0.9435},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":3.2249741679442003,"contest_party_id":"K26_NATIVE_LIST::RESERVISTS_AND_NEW_ECONOMIC_PARTY","display_name_en":"Reservists–Economic","display_name_he":"המילואימניקים והכלכלית","expected_seats":2.6664,"forecast_date":"2026-09-18","group_id":"UNCOMMITTED","headline_seats":0,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-18T23:59:59+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.36445000000000005,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.63555,"p_represented":0.36445,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_reservists_economic","raw_b5_point_pp":3.3447579090580133,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":8.0,"seat_range_display":"0, 4–12","seat_range_high":12,"seat_range_low":4,"seat_range_mode":"ZERO_SEPARATED_CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"RETROSPECTIVE_CAUSAL_RECONSTRUCTION_NOT_ORIGINALLY_ISSUED","vote_mean_pp":3.2255914372536023,"vote_q10_pp":0.9929723213773939,"vote_q2_5_pp":0.6136157348584169,"vote_q90_pp":6.26650011636942,"vote_q97_5_pp":10.054305471621902,"zero_seat_probability":0.63555},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":17.11520901042183,"contest_party_id":"LIKUD","display_name_en":"Likud","display_name_he":"הליכוד","expected_seats":24.125203541018497,"forecast_date":"2026-09-18","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":24,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-18T23:59:59+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":1.0,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.0,"p_represented":1.0,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_likud","raw_b5_point_pp":17.75091139389861,"seat_q10":19.0,"seat_q90":30.0,"seat_range_display":"19–30","seat_range_high":30,"seat_range_low":19,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"RETROSPECTIVE_CAUSAL_RECONSTRUCTION_NOT_ORIGINALLY_ISSUED","vote_mean_pp":17.908539660899052,"vote_q10_pp":13.955393355593262,"vote_q2_5_pp":12.182098697942175,"vote_q90_pp":22.180504093545917,"vote_q97_5_pp":24.47306912166375,"zero_seat_probability":0.0},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":5.468650202820907,"contest_party_id":"SHAS","display_name_en":"Shas","display_name_he":"ש״ס","expected_seats":7.4498269622173465,"forecast_date":"2026-09-18","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":8,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-18T23:59:59+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.9266892970566203,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.07331070294337967,"p_represented":0.9266892970566205,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_shas","raw_b5_point_pp":5.671769777125675,"seat_q10":4.0,"seat_q90":11.0,"seat_range_display":"5–11","seat_range_high":11,"seat_range_low":5,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"RETROSPECTIVE_CAUSAL_RECONSTRUCTION_NOT_ORIGINALLY_ISSUED","vote_mean_pp":5.943829371839124,"vote_q10_pp":3.500138818692469,"vote_q2_5_pp":2.3831596273901137,"vote_q90_pp":8.624093973967913,"vote_q97_5_pp":10.986367575374048,"zero_seat_probability":0.07331070294337967},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":6.1258474369678,"contest_party_id":"UNITED_TORAH_JUDAISM","display_name_en":"United Torah Judaism","display_name_he":"יהדות התורה","expected_seats":7.7083412047525455,"forecast_date":"2026-09-18","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":8,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-18T23:59:59+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.9544913928647112,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.04550860713528879,"p_represented":0.9544913928647114,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_utj","raw_b5_point_pp":6.353376987680519,"seat_q10":5.0,"seat_q90":11.0,"seat_range_display":"5–11","seat_range_high":11,"seat_range_low":5,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"RETROSPECTIVE_CAUSAL_RECONSTRUCTION_NOT_ORIGINALLY_ISSUED","vote_mean_pp":6.074157957612226,"vote_q10_pp":3.761549577388331,"vote_q2_5_pp":2.7583206265632145,"vote_q90_pp":8.58367421437511,"vote_q97_5_pp":11.595262918042708,"zero_seat_probability":0.04550860713528879},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":5.885829484606344,"contest_party_id":"OTZMA_YEHUDIT","display_name_en":"Otzma Yehudit","display_name_he":"עוצמה יהודית","expected_seats":7.585649049119203,"forecast_date":"2026-09-18","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":8,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-18T23:59:59+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.9484093827719055,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.05159061722809453,"p_represented":0.9484093827719056,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_otzma","raw_b5_point_pp":6.104444158246834,"seat_q10":5.0,"seat_q90":11.0,"seat_range_display":"5–11","seat_range_high":11,"seat_range_low":5,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"RETROSPECTIVE_CAUSAL_RECONSTRUCTION_NOT_ORIGINALLY_ISSUED","vote_mean_pp":6.01164977353157,"vote_q10_pp":3.7164765279423397,"vote_q2_5_pp":2.753452116900978,"vote_q90_pp":8.343926903706269,"vote_q97_5_pp":11.007532413308844,"zero_seat_probability":0.05159061722809453},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":3.953169242163494,"contest_party_id":"K26_NATIVE_LIST::RZP_AND_ZEHUT","display_name_en":"Religious Zionism–Zehut","display_name_he":"הציונות הדתית וזהות","expected_seats":4.132872622692379,"forecast_date":"2026-09-18","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":5,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-18T23:59:59+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.607609415390318,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.392390584609682,"p_represented":0.6076094153903182,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_religious_zionism_zehut","raw_b5_point_pp":4.1,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":9.0,"seat_range_display":"0, 4–10","seat_range_high":10,"seat_range_low":4,"seat_range_mode":"ZERO_SEPARATED_CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"RETROSPECTIVE_CAUSAL_RECONSTRUCTION_NOT_ORIGINALLY_ISSUED","vote_mean_pp":4.081334314208062,"vote_q10_pp":1.6013377396912443,"vote_q2_5_pp":1.0162611528186472,"vote_q90_pp":6.789888283196148,"vote_q97_5_pp":9.060735211716214,"zero_seat_probability":0.392390584609682},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":3.210123190261883,"contest_party_id":"WINTER_NEW_PARTY","display_name_en":"Amcha Yisrael","display_name_he":"עמך ישראל","expected_seats":1.9736508893161862,"forecast_date":"2026-09-18","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":0,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-18T23:59:59+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.3146221349072952,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.6853778650927048,"p_represented":0.3146221349072953,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_amcha_yisrael","raw_b5_point_pp":3.3293553283012693,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":6.0,"seat_range_display":"0, 4–9","seat_range_high":9,"seat_range_low":4,"seat_range_mode":"ZERO_SEPARATED_CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"RETROSPECTIVE_CAUSAL_RECONSTRUCTION_NOT_ORIGINALLY_ISSUED","vote_mean_pp":2.81980885380126,"vote_q10_pp":0.9473726048932222,"vote_q2_5_pp":0.5731767247136756,"vote_q90_pp":5.111624326759966,"vote_q97_5_pp":7.30418267692203,"zero_seat_probability":0.6853778650927048},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":0.528230480578496,"contest_party_id":"K26_NATIVE_LIST::HAREDI_PUBLIC","display_name_en":"Haredi Public","display_name_he":"הציבור החרדי","expected_seats":0.05730685186893991,"forecast_date":"2026-09-18","group_id":"UNCOMMITTED","headline_seats":0,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-18T23:59:59+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.006541725115346564,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.9934582748846534,"p_represented":0.00654172511534671,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_haredi_public","raw_b5_point_pp":0.547850303820173,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":0.0,"seat_range_display":"0","seat_range_high":null,"seat_range_low":null,"seat_range_mode":"ZERO_ONLY_RARE_REPRESENTATION","snapshot_status":"RETROSPECTIVE_CAUSAL_RECONSTRUCTION_NOT_ORIGINALLY_ISSUED","vote_mean_pp":0.361151442152595,"vote_q10_pp":0.018604678632475155,"vote_q2_5_pp":0.006254132196315764,"vote_q90_pp":0.8854657333535573,"vote_q97_5_pp":2.080235548850056,"zero_seat_probability":0.9934582748846534},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":9.94708058841424,"contest_party_id":"K26_NATIVE_LIST::BEYAHAD_BENNETT","display_name_en":"Beyachad","display_name_he":"ביחד","expected_seats":13.186235422179667,"forecast_date":"2026-09-18","group_id":"CHANGE_CORE","headline_seats":13,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-18T23:59:59+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.9998487619941597,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.00015123800584029658,"p_represented":0.9998487619941598,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_beyachad","raw_b5_point_pp":10.316540455065011,"seat_q10":9.0,"seat_q90":18.0,"seat_range_display":"9–18","seat_range_high":18,"seat_range_low":9,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"RETROSPECTIVE_CAUSAL_RECONSTRUCTION_NOT_ORIGINALLY_ISSUED","vote_mean_pp":9.950348721729465,"vote_q10_pp":6.810675374295316,"vote_q2_5_pp":5.582281470905222,"vote_q90_pp":13.313367808701935,"vote_q97_5_pp":15.624565815553463,"zero_seat_probability":0.00015123800584029658},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":17.642075801098375,"contest_party_id":"YASHAR_GADI_EISENKOT","display_name_en":"Yashar!","display_name_he":"ישר!","expected_seats":24.17145530699765,"forecast_date":"2026-09-18","group_id":"CHANGE_CORE","headline_seats":24,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-18T23:59:59+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":1.0,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.0,"p_represented":1.0,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_yashar","raw_b5_point_pp":18.29734735690626,"seat_q10":20.0,"seat_q90":29.0,"seat_range_display":"20–29","seat_range_high":29,"seat_range_low":20,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"RETROSPECTIVE_CAUSAL_RECONSTRUCTION_NOT_ORIGINALLY_ISSUED","vote_mean_pp":17.943878546807447,"vote_q10_pp":14.579829330219976,"vote_q2_5_pp":13.02653342290305,"vote_q90_pp":21.43495365632505,"vote_q97_5_pp":24.644658277023563,"zero_seat_probability":0.0},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":6.5703709052730375,"contest_party_id":"YISRAEL_BEITEINU","display_name_en":"Yisrael Beiteinu","display_name_he":"ישראל ביתנו","expected_seats":8.113026741144695,"forecast_date":"2026-09-18","group_id":"CHANGE_CORE","headline_seats":8,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-18T23:59:59+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.9688980302287639,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.031101969771236165,"p_represented":0.968898030228764,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_yisrael_beiteinu","raw_b5_point_pp":6.814411187940062,"seat_q10":5.0,"seat_q90":12.0,"seat_range_display":"5–12","seat_range_high":12,"seat_range_low":5,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"RETROSPECTIVE_CAUSAL_RECONSTRUCTION_NOT_ORIGINALLY_ISSUED","vote_mean_pp":6.343147797000661,"vote_q10_pp":3.986171832027031,"vote_q2_5_pp":3.0921264025681516,"vote_q90_pp":8.939677609097503,"vote_q97_5_pp":12.04808316400453,"zero_seat_probability":0.031101969771236165},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":7.444510079826851,"contest_party_id":"THE_DEMOCRATS","display_name_en":"The Democrats","display_name_he":"הדמוקרטים","expected_seats":9.851900083546106,"forecast_date":"2026-09-18","group_id":"CHANGE_CORE","headline_seats":10,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-18T23:59:59+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.9941372025797283,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.005862797420271787,"p_represented":0.9941372025797284,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_democrats","raw_b5_point_pp":7.721018114212006,"seat_q10":6.0,"seat_q90":14.0,"seat_range_display":"7–14","seat_range_high":14,"seat_range_low":7,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"RETROSPECTIVE_CAUSAL_RECONSTRUCTION_NOT_ORIGINALLY_ISSUED","vote_mean_pp":7.545566210769498,"vote_q10_pp":5.069545719473281,"vote_q2_5_pp":4.00400407850403,"vote_q90_pp":10.215701385414594,"vote_q97_5_pp":13.230146425828918,"zero_seat_probability":0.005862797420271787},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":3.6987000960669754,"contest_party_id":"RAAM","display_name_en":"Raam","display_name_he":"רע״ם","expected_seats":3.204042233884341,"forecast_date":"2026-09-18","group_id":"ARAB_LISTS","headline_seats":4,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-18T23:59:59+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.4984865257437463,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.5015134742562537,"p_represented":0.4984865257437464,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_raam","raw_b5_point_pp":3.836079222749204,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":8.0,"seat_range_display":"0, 4–9","seat_range_high":9,"seat_range_low":4,"seat_range_mode":"ZERO_SEPARATED_CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"RETROSPECTIVE_CAUSAL_RECONSTRUCTION_NOT_ORIGINALLY_ISSUED","vote_mean_pp":3.5620281452120834,"vote_q10_pp":1.400536601501021,"vote_q2_5_pp":0.8938792881381084,"vote_q90_pp":6.0451806396647845,"vote_q97_5_pp":8.356041233275995,"zero_seat_probability":0.5015134742562537},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":5.737068715614603,"contest_party_id":"HADASH_TAAL_BALAD","display_name_en":"Joint List","display_name_he":"הרשימה המשותפת","expected_seats":7.301785102621668,"forecast_date":"2026-09-18","group_id":"ARAB_LISTS","headline_seats":8,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-18T23:59:59+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.924917783052232,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.07508221694776793,"p_represented":0.9249177830522323,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_joint_list","raw_b5_point_pp":5.950158036023456,"seat_q10":4.0,"seat_q90":11.0,"seat_range_display":"5–11","seat_range_high":11,"seat_range_low":5,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"RETROSPECTIVE_CAUSAL_RECONSTRUCTION_NOT_ORIGINALLY_ISSUED","vote_mean_pp":5.849431676189597,"vote_q10_pp":3.4486572696705085,"vote_q2_5_pp":2.43541062835328,"vote_q90_pp":8.433805102771972,"vote_q97_5_pp":11.345185337659224,"zero_seat_probability":0.07508221694776793},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":1.0481605979409576,"contest_party_id":"BLUE_WHITE","display_name_en":"Blue and White","display_name_he":"כחול לבן","expected_seats":0.10723221970544096,"forecast_date":"2026-09-18","group_id":"UNCOMMITTED","headline_seats":0,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-18T23:59:59+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.015265097866658861,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.9847349021333411,"p_represented":0.015265097866659175,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_blue_white","raw_b5_point_pp":1.0870919478281706,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":0.0,"seat_range_display":"0","seat_range_high":null,"seat_range_low":null,"seat_range_mode":"ZERO_ONLY_RARE_REPRESENTATION","snapshot_status":"RETROSPECTIVE_CAUSAL_RECONSTRUCTION_NOT_ORIGINALLY_ISSUED","vote_mean_pp":0.8295471107113266,"vote_q10_pp":0.13555132869104547,"vote_q2_5_pp":0.061589807792282146,"vote_q90_pp":1.9202265109271424,"vote_q97_5_pp":2.9651733085985787,"zero_seat_probability":0.9847349021333411},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":3.2249741679442003,"contest_party_id":"K26_NATIVE_LIST::RESERVISTS_AND_NEW_ECONOMIC_PARTY","display_name_en":"Reservists–Economic","display_name_he":"המילואימניקים והכלכלית","expected_seats":1.031471768935352,"forecast_date":"2026-09-18","group_id":"UNCOMMITTED","headline_seats":0,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-18T23:59:59+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.1411511576849317,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.8588488423150683,"p_represented":0.14115115768493186,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_reservists_economic","raw_b5_point_pp":3.3447579090580133,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":5.0,"seat_range_display":"0, 4–12","seat_range_high":12,"seat_range_low":4,"seat_range_mode":"ZERO_SEPARATED_CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"RETROSPECTIVE_CAUSAL_RECONSTRUCTION_NOT_ORIGINALLY_ISSUED","vote_mean_pp":2.3755804175360478,"vote_q10_pp":0.8838214811242561,"vote_q2_5_pp":0.5622840434715382,"vote_q90_pp":4.073578243688479,"vote_q97_5_pp":7.691253366487861,"zero_seat_probability":0.8588488423150683},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":17.11520901042183,"contest_party_id":"LIKUD","display_name_en":"Likud","display_name_he":"הליכוד","expected_seats":23.23595,"forecast_date":"2026-09-19","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":23,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-19T23:59:59+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":1.0,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.0,"p_represented":1.0,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_likud","raw_b5_point_pp":17.75091139389861,"seat_q10":18.0,"seat_q90":29.0,"seat_range_display":"18–29","seat_range_high":29,"seat_range_low":18,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"RETROSPECTIVE_CAUSAL_RECONSTRUCTION_NOT_ORIGINALLY_ISSUED","vote_mean_pp":17.1151128438534,"vote_q10_pp":13.043009386177307,"vote_q2_5_pp":11.32392287740509,"vote_q90_pp":21.47958261898669,"vote_q97_5_pp":24.223707436814458,"zero_seat_probability":0.0},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":5.468650202820907,"contest_party_id":"SHAS","display_name_en":"Shas","display_name_he":"ש״ס","expected_seats":6.4806,"forecast_date":"2026-09-19","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":7,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-19T23:59:59+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.8109999999999999,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.189,"p_represented":0.811,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_shas","raw_b5_point_pp":5.671769777125675,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":12.0,"seat_range_display":"5–13","seat_range_high":13,"seat_range_low":5,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"RETROSPECTIVE_CAUSAL_RECONSTRUCTION_NOT_ORIGINALLY_ISSUED","vote_mean_pp":5.468873107135312,"vote_q10_pp":2.695580559921771,"vote_q2_5_pp":1.9397804447512188,"vote_q90_pp":8.884654277079196,"vote_q97_5_pp":11.946159163627806,"zero_seat_probability":0.189},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":6.1258474369678,"contest_party_id":"UNITED_TORAH_JUDAISM","display_name_en":"United Torah Judaism","display_name_he":"יהדות התורה","expected_seats":7.6568,"forecast_date":"2026-09-19","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":8,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-19T23:59:59+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.89925,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.10075,"p_represented":0.89925,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_utj","raw_b5_point_pp":6.353376987680519,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":13.0,"seat_range_display":"5–13","seat_range_high":13,"seat_range_low":5,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"RETROSPECTIVE_CAUSAL_RECONSTRUCTION_NOT_ORIGINALLY_ISSUED","vote_mean_pp":6.125907769787228,"vote_q10_pp":3.2459047979311877,"vote_q2_5_pp":2.3998052970276875,"vote_q90_pp":9.675944256254528,"vote_q97_5_pp":12.615172286372237,"zero_seat_probability":0.10075},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":5.885829484606344,"contest_party_id":"OTZMA_YEHUDIT","display_name_en":"Otzma Yehudit","display_name_he":"עוצמה יהודית","expected_seats":7.2884,"forecast_date":"2026-09-19","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":8,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-19T23:59:59+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.88945,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.11055,"p_represented":0.88945,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_otzma","raw_b5_point_pp":6.104444158246834,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":12.0,"seat_range_display":"5–13","seat_range_high":13,"seat_range_low":5,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"RETROSPECTIVE_CAUSAL_RECONSTRUCTION_NOT_ORIGINALLY_ISSUED","vote_mean_pp":5.8852577876734005,"vote_q10_pp":3.17395051476781,"vote_q2_5_pp":2.3722139993153855,"vote_q90_pp":9.16526744651881,"vote_q97_5_pp":11.858142942009309,"zero_seat_probability":0.11055},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":3.953169242163494,"contest_party_id":"K26_NATIVE_LIST::RZP_AND_ZEHUT","display_name_en":"Religious Zionism–Zehut","display_name_he":"הציונות הדתית וזהות","expected_seats":3.75115,"forecast_date":"2026-09-19","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":5,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-19T23:59:59+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.5153,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.4847,"p_represented":0.5153,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_religious_zionism_zehut","raw_b5_point_pp":4.1,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":9.0,"seat_range_display":"0, 4–12","seat_range_high":12,"seat_range_low":4,"seat_range_mode":"ZERO_SEPARATED_CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"RETROSPECTIVE_CAUSAL_RECONSTRUCTION_NOT_ORIGINALLY_ISSUED","vote_mean_pp":3.9533424014188023,"vote_q10_pp":1.5196927917709135,"vote_q2_5_pp":0.9831435868481063,"vote_q90_pp":7.143660868165277,"vote_q97_5_pp":10.462581433600342,"zero_seat_probability":0.4847},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":3.210123190261883,"contest_party_id":"WINTER_NEW_PARTY","display_name_en":"Amcha Yisrael","display_name_he":"עמך ישראל","expected_seats":2.6197,"forecast_date":"2026-09-19","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":0,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-19T23:59:59+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.36245000000000005,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.63755,"p_represented":0.3625,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_amcha_yisrael","raw_b5_point_pp":3.3293553283012693,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":8.0,"seat_range_display":"0, 4–12","seat_range_high":12,"seat_range_low":4,"seat_range_mode":"ZERO_SEPARATED_CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"RETROSPECTIVE_CAUSAL_RECONSTRUCTION_NOT_ORIGINALLY_ISSUED","vote_mean_pp":3.210018331718362,"vote_q10_pp":1.0197208224598195,"vote_q2_5_pp":0.6360208875529482,"vote_q90_pp":6.1594619014731045,"vote_q97_5_pp":9.772998034134105,"zero_seat_probability":0.6375},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":0.528230480578496,"contest_party_id":"K26_NATIVE_LIST::HAREDI_PUBLIC","display_name_en":"Haredi Public","display_name_he":"הציבור החרדי","expected_seats":0.2203,"forecast_date":"2026-09-19","group_id":"UNCOMMITTED","headline_seats":0,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-19T23:59:59+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.02554999999999996,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.97445,"p_represented":0.02555,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_haredi_public","raw_b5_point_pp":0.547850303820173,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":0.0,"seat_range_display":"0","seat_range_high":null,"seat_range_low":null,"seat_range_mode":"ZERO_ONLY_RARE_REPRESENTATION","snapshot_status":"RETROSPECTIVE_CAUSAL_RECONSTRUCTION_NOT_ORIGINALLY_ISSUED","vote_mean_pp":0.5279886689825016,"vote_q10_pp":0.025042621204474164,"vote_q2_5_pp":0.008697642721417818,"vote_q90_pp":1.179051547897467,"vote_q97_5_pp":3.3005105861017245,"zero_seat_probability":0.97445},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":9.94708058841424,"contest_party_id":"K26_NATIVE_LIST::BEYAHAD_BENNETT","display_name_en":"Beyachad","display_name_he":"ביחד","expected_seats":13.30195,"forecast_date":"2026-09-19","group_id":"CHANGE_CORE","headline_seats":13,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-19T23:59:59+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.99965,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.00035,"p_represented":0.99965,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_beyachad","raw_b5_point_pp":10.316540455065011,"seat_q10":8.0,"seat_q90":19.0,"seat_range_display":"8–19","seat_range_high":19,"seat_range_low":8,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"RETROSPECTIVE_CAUSAL_RECONSTRUCTION_NOT_ORIGINALLY_ISSUED","vote_mean_pp":9.946956542664415,"vote_q10_pp":6.4922005304706305,"vote_q2_5_pp":5.274143703214078,"vote_q90_pp":13.899216081435913,"vote_q97_5_pp":16.7488429809441,"zero_seat_probability":0.00035},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":17.642075801098375,"contest_party_id":"YASHAR_GADI_EISENKOT","display_name_en":"Yashar!","display_name_he":"ישר!","expected_seats":23.9694,"forecast_date":"2026-09-19","group_id":"CHANGE_CORE","headline_seats":24,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-19T23:59:59+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":1.0,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.0,"p_represented":1.0,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_yashar","raw_b5_point_pp":18.29734735690626,"seat_q10":18.0,"seat_q90":30.0,"seat_range_display":"18–30","seat_range_high":30,"seat_range_low":18,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"RETROSPECTIVE_CAUSAL_RECONSTRUCTION_NOT_ORIGINALLY_ISSUED","vote_mean_pp":17.641846126324836,"vote_q10_pp":13.407369322058546,"vote_q2_5_pp":11.635376719672138,"vote_q90_pp":22.139021725631345,"vote_q97_5_pp":25.01983681968892,"zero_seat_probability":0.0},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":6.5703709052730375,"contest_party_id":"YISRAEL_BEITEINU","display_name_en":"Yisrael Beiteinu","display_name_he":"ישראל ביתנו","expected_seats":8.40375,"forecast_date":"2026-09-19","group_id":"CHANGE_CORE","headline_seats":9,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-19T23:59:59+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.9390000000000001,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.061,"p_represented":0.939,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_yisrael_beiteinu","raw_b5_point_pp":6.814411187940062,"seat_q10":4.0,"seat_q90":14.0,"seat_range_display":"5–14","seat_range_high":14,"seat_range_low":5,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"RETROSPECTIVE_CAUSAL_RECONSTRUCTION_NOT_ORIGINALLY_ISSUED","vote_mean_pp":6.5707730294255295,"vote_q10_pp":3.6113215573587367,"vote_q2_5_pp":2.71098400261251,"vote_q90_pp":10.090693934910469,"vote_q97_5_pp":13.00370530593676,"zero_seat_probability":0.061},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":7.444510079826851,"contest_party_id":"THE_DEMOCRATS","display_name_en":"The Democrats","display_name_he":"הדמוקרטים","expected_seats":9.75145,"forecast_date":"2026-09-19","group_id":"CHANGE_CORE","headline_seats":10,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-19T23:59:59+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.97855,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.02145,"p_represented":0.97855,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_democrats","raw_b5_point_pp":7.721018114212006,"seat_q10":5.0,"seat_q90":15.0,"seat_range_display":"6–15","seat_range_high":15,"seat_range_low":6,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"RETROSPECTIVE_CAUSAL_RECONSTRUCTION_NOT_ORIGINALLY_ISSUED","vote_mean_pp":7.4446265085864285,"vote_q10_pp":4.319331990115921,"vote_q2_5_pp":3.3593366834637117,"vote_q90_pp":11.154333870516197,"vote_q97_5_pp":14.148634345325542,"zero_seat_probability":0.02145},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":3.6987000960669754,"contest_party_id":"RAAM","display_name_en":"Raam","display_name_he":"רע״ם","expected_seats":3.34285,"forecast_date":"2026-09-19","group_id":"ARAB_LISTS","headline_seats":5,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-19T23:59:59+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.46675,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.53325,"p_represented":0.46675,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_raam","raw_b5_point_pp":3.836079222749204,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":9.0,"seat_range_display":"0, 4–11","seat_range_high":11,"seat_range_low":4,"seat_range_mode":"ZERO_SEPARATED_CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"RETROSPECTIVE_CAUSAL_RECONSTRUCTION_NOT_ORIGINALLY_ISSUED","vote_mean_pp":3.6991912361439243,"vote_q10_pp":1.3722545145190241,"vote_q2_5_pp":0.8968554971584717,"vote_q90_pp":6.7818465850227865,"vote_q97_5_pp":10.037062462700833,"zero_seat_probability":0.53325},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":5.737068715614603,"contest_party_id":"HADASH_TAAL_BALAD","display_name_en":"Joint List","display_name_he":"הרשימה המשותפת","expected_seats":6.9583,"forecast_date":"2026-09-19","group_id":"ARAB_LISTS","headline_seats":8,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-19T23:59:59+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.8462000000000001,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.1538,"p_represented":0.8462,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_joint_list","raw_b5_point_pp":5.950158036023456,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":12.0,"seat_range_display":"5–13","seat_range_high":13,"seat_range_low":5,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"RETROSPECTIVE_CAUSAL_RECONSTRUCTION_NOT_ORIGINALLY_ISSUED","vote_mean_pp":5.737239540683371,"vote_q10_pp":2.879540669224318,"vote_q2_5_pp":2.0788644752675043,"vote_q90_pp":9.305503544643567,"vote_q97_5_pp":12.471796393529429,"zero_seat_probability":0.1538},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":1.0481605979409576,"contest_party_id":"BLUE_WHITE","display_name_en":"Blue and White","display_name_he":"כחול לבן","expected_seats":0.4015,"forecast_date":"2026-09-19","group_id":"UNCOMMITTED","headline_seats":0,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-19T23:59:59+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.056050000000000044,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.94395,"p_represented":0.05605,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_blue_white","raw_b5_point_pp":1.0870919478281706,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":0.0,"seat_range_display":"0, 4–12","seat_range_high":12,"seat_range_low":4,"seat_range_mode":"ZERO_SEPARATED_CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"RETROSPECTIVE_CAUSAL_RECONSTRUCTION_NOT_ORIGINALLY_ISSUED","vote_mean_pp":1.0480709917235647,"vote_q10_pp":0.15322590250364002,"vote_q2_5_pp":0.07208697326295581,"vote_q90_pp":2.3554957086359227,"vote_q97_5_pp":4.643801560461283,"zero_seat_probability":0.94395},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":3.2249741679442003,"contest_party_id":"K26_NATIVE_LIST::RESERVISTS_AND_NEW_ECONOMIC_PARTY","display_name_en":"Reservists–Economic","display_name_he":"המילואימניקים והכלכלית","expected_seats":2.6179,"forecast_date":"2026-09-19","group_id":"UNCOMMITTED","headline_seats":0,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-19T23:59:59+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.36565000000000003,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.63435,"p_represented":0.36565,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_reservists_economic","raw_b5_point_pp":3.3447579090580133,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":8.0,"seat_range_display":"0, 4–12","seat_range_high":12,"seat_range_low":4,"seat_range_mode":"ZERO_SEPARATED_CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"RETROSPECTIVE_CAUSAL_RECONSTRUCTION_NOT_ORIGINALLY_ISSUED","vote_mean_pp":3.2247951138789226,"vote_q10_pp":1.0503688911806137,"vote_q2_5_pp":0.6529047208566445,"vote_q90_pp":6.148611993182158,"vote_q97_5_pp":9.621213785059828,"zero_seat_probability":0.63435},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":17.11520901042183,"contest_party_id":"LIKUD","display_name_en":"Likud","display_name_he":"הליכוד","expected_seats":24.16271195130178,"forecast_date":"2026-09-19","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":24,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-19T23:59:59+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":1.0,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.0,"p_represented":1.0,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_likud","raw_b5_point_pp":17.75091139389861,"seat_q10":19.0,"seat_q90":30.0,"seat_range_display":"19–30","seat_range_high":30,"seat_range_low":19,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"RETROSPECTIVE_CAUSAL_RECONSTRUCTION_NOT_ORIGINALLY_ISSUED","vote_mean_pp":17.925838106451813,"vote_q10_pp":14.00374613738488,"vote_q2_5_pp":12.241401801643509,"vote_q90_pp":21.922872381421538,"vote_q97_5_pp":24.360379760582894,"zero_seat_probability":0.0},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":5.468650202820907,"contest_party_id":"SHAS","display_name_en":"Shas","display_name_he":"ש״ס","expected_seats":7.382981861710677,"forecast_date":"2026-09-19","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":8,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-19T23:59:59+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.9287313599974136,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.07126864000258637,"p_represented":0.9287313599974136,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_shas","raw_b5_point_pp":5.671769777125675,"seat_q10":4.0,"seat_q90":11.0,"seat_range_display":"5–11","seat_range_high":11,"seat_range_low":5,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"RETROSPECTIVE_CAUSAL_RECONSTRUCTION_NOT_ORIGINALLY_ISSUED","vote_mean_pp":5.892957036510741,"vote_q10_pp":3.5340357360958556,"vote_q2_5_pp":2.456058835973105,"vote_q90_pp":8.485867472187827,"vote_q97_5_pp":10.691657131962279,"zero_seat_probability":0.07126864000258637},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":6.1258474369678,"contest_party_id":"UNITED_TORAH_JUDAISM","display_name_en":"United Torah Judaism","display_name_he":"יהדות התורה","expected_seats":7.694127148230228,"forecast_date":"2026-09-19","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":8,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-19T23:59:59+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.9567546949973768,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.04324530500262323,"p_represented":0.9567546949973766,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_utj","raw_b5_point_pp":6.353376987680519,"seat_q10":5.0,"seat_q90":11.0,"seat_range_display":"5–11","seat_range_high":11,"seat_range_low":5,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"RETROSPECTIVE_CAUSAL_RECONSTRUCTION_NOT_ORIGINALLY_ISSUED","vote_mean_pp":6.065057915961317,"vote_q10_pp":3.7627959269903237,"vote_q2_5_pp":2.859009787673785,"vote_q90_pp":8.540039001537682,"vote_q97_5_pp":11.1618804210879,"zero_seat_probability":0.04324530500262323},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":5.885829484606344,"contest_party_id":"OTZMA_YEHUDIT","display_name_en":"Otzma Yehudit","display_name_he":"עוצמה יהודית","expected_seats":7.606904745229371,"forecast_date":"2026-09-19","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":8,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-19T23:59:59+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.953901390616221,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.04609860938377902,"p_represented":0.953901390616221,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_otzma","raw_b5_point_pp":6.104444158246834,"seat_q10":5.0,"seat_q90":11.0,"seat_range_display":"5–11","seat_range_high":11,"seat_range_low":5,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"RETROSPECTIVE_CAUSAL_RECONSTRUCTION_NOT_ORIGINALLY_ISSUED","vote_mean_pp":6.0049336992756945,"vote_q10_pp":3.7878504287887296,"vote_q2_5_pp":2.800382119524609,"vote_q90_pp":8.382337934146369,"vote_q97_5_pp":10.524991639547405,"zero_seat_probability":0.04609860938377902},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":3.953169242163494,"contest_party_id":"K26_NATIVE_LIST::RZP_AND_ZEHUT","display_name_en":"Religious Zionism–Zehut","display_name_he":"הציונות הדתית וזהות","expected_seats":4.330553788009632,"forecast_date":"2026-09-19","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":5,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-19T23:59:59+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.6306857371372359,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.36931426286276414,"p_represented":0.6306857371372359,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_religious_zionism_zehut","raw_b5_point_pp":4.1,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":9.0,"seat_range_display":"0, 4–10","seat_range_high":10,"seat_range_low":4,"seat_range_mode":"ZERO_SEPARATED_CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"RETROSPECTIVE_CAUSAL_RECONSTRUCTION_NOT_ORIGINALLY_ISSUED","vote_mean_pp":4.200070348243487,"vote_q10_pp":1.7139708412374042,"vote_q2_5_pp":1.095148490023798,"vote_q90_pp":6.915752571749301,"vote_q97_5_pp":9.113074152390425,"zero_seat_probability":0.36931426286276414},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":3.210123190261883,"contest_party_id":"WINTER_NEW_PARTY","display_name_en":"Amcha Yisrael","display_name_he":"עמך ישראל","expected_seats":1.9408785589268907,"forecast_date":"2026-09-19","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":0,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-19T23:59:59+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.3124765952203655,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.6875234047796345,"p_represented":0.3125623814987793,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_amcha_yisrael","raw_b5_point_pp":3.3293553283012693,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":6.0,"seat_range_display":"0, 4–9","seat_range_high":9,"seat_range_low":4,"seat_range_mode":"ZERO_SEPARATED_CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"RETROSPECTIVE_CAUSAL_RECONSTRUCTION_NOT_ORIGINALLY_ISSUED","vote_mean_pp":2.82061655096936,"vote_q10_pp":1.0280065045685793,"vote_q2_5_pp":0.6288150755517818,"vote_q90_pp":5.042720557533087,"vote_q97_5_pp":7.190118773639254,"zero_seat_probability":0.6874376185012206},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":0.528230480578496,"contest_party_id":"K26_NATIVE_LIST::HAREDI_PUBLIC","display_name_en":"Haredi Public","display_name_he":"הציבור החרדי","expected_seats":0.04670894524874655,"forecast_date":"2026-09-19","group_id":"UNCOMMITTED","headline_seats":0,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-19T23:59:59+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.005787984572430904,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.9942120154275691,"p_represented":0.005787984572430816,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_haredi_public","raw_b5_point_pp":0.547850303820173,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":0.0,"seat_range_display":"0","seat_range_high":null,"seat_range_low":null,"seat_range_mode":"ZERO_ONLY_RARE_REPRESENTATION","snapshot_status":"RETROSPECTIVE_CAUSAL_RECONSTRUCTION_NOT_ORIGINALLY_ISSUED","vote_mean_pp":0.3883447296568257,"vote_q10_pp":0.024379539222954303,"vote_q2_5_pp":0.008289923921487228,"vote_q90_pp":0.9926016719706107,"vote_q97_5_pp":2.1929589038474244,"zero_seat_probability":0.9942120154275691},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":9.94708058841424,"contest_party_id":"K26_NATIVE_LIST::BEYAHAD_BENNETT","display_name_en":"Beyachad","display_name_he":"ביחד","expected_seats":13.168399843778818,"forecast_date":"2026-09-19","group_id":"CHANGE_CORE","headline_seats":13,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-19T23:59:59+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.9999875397649429,"p_below_legal_threshold":1.2460235057126493e-05,"p_represented":0.9999875397649429,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_beyachad","raw_b5_point_pp":10.316540455065011,"seat_q10":9.0,"seat_q90":18.0,"seat_range_display":"9–18","seat_range_high":18,"seat_range_low":9,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"RETROSPECTIVE_CAUSAL_RECONSTRUCTION_NOT_ORIGINALLY_ISSUED","vote_mean_pp":9.936554723677425,"vote_q10_pp":6.931418819041145,"vote_q2_5_pp":5.623451401632156,"vote_q90_pp":13.252364779765303,"vote_q97_5_pp":15.669490374718134,"zero_seat_probability":1.2460235057126493e-05},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":17.642075801098375,"contest_party_id":"YASHAR_GADI_EISENKOT","display_name_en":"Yashar!","display_name_he":"ישר!","expected_seats":24.034399532579638,"forecast_date":"2026-09-19","group_id":"CHANGE_CORE","headline_seats":24,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-19T23:59:59+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":1.0,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.0,"p_represented":1.0,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_yashar","raw_b5_point_pp":18.29734735690626,"seat_q10":20.0,"seat_q90":29.0,"seat_range_display":"20–29","seat_range_high":29,"seat_range_low":20,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"RETROSPECTIVE_CAUSAL_RECONSTRUCTION_NOT_ORIGINALLY_ISSUED","vote_mean_pp":17.844619509390434,"vote_q10_pp":14.693984724949338,"vote_q2_5_pp":13.179033277665184,"vote_q90_pp":21.215646727978314,"vote_q97_5_pp":24.264464786200968,"zero_seat_probability":0.0},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":6.5703709052730375,"contest_party_id":"YISRAEL_BEITEINU","display_name_en":"Yisrael Beiteinu","display_name_he":"ישראל ביתנו","expected_seats":8.178331405170166,"forecast_date":"2026-09-19","group_id":"CHANGE_CORE","headline_seats":8,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-19T23:59:59+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.9753612365961871,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.02463876340381283,"p_represented":0.9753612365961872,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_yisrael_beiteinu","raw_b5_point_pp":6.814411187940062,"seat_q10":5.0,"seat_q90":12.0,"seat_range_display":"5–12","seat_range_high":12,"seat_range_low":5,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"RETROSPECTIVE_CAUSAL_RECONSTRUCTION_NOT_ORIGINALLY_ISSUED","vote_mean_pp":6.373408718587957,"vote_q10_pp":4.093639628270752,"vote_q2_5_pp":3.2569445311470253,"vote_q90_pp":8.840881330961764,"vote_q97_5_pp":11.726209102326305,"zero_seat_probability":0.02463876340381283},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":7.444510079826851,"contest_party_id":"THE_DEMOCRATS","display_name_en":"The Democrats","display_name_he":"הדמוקרטים","expected_seats":9.80888411140676,"forecast_date":"2026-09-19","group_id":"CHANGE_CORE","headline_seats":10,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-19T23:59:59+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.9949253715195021,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.005074628480497868,"p_represented":0.9949253715195021,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_democrats","raw_b5_point_pp":7.721018114212006,"seat_q10":6.0,"seat_q90":13.0,"seat_range_display":"7–13","seat_range_high":13,"seat_range_low":7,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"RETROSPECTIVE_CAUSAL_RECONSTRUCTION_NOT_ORIGINALLY_ISSUED","vote_mean_pp":7.5026851792560265,"vote_q10_pp":5.073506032382783,"vote_q2_5_pp":4.0640995640654065,"vote_q90_pp":10.154912785424735,"vote_q97_5_pp":12.88514708933588,"zero_seat_probability":0.005074628480497868},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":3.6987000960669754,"contest_party_id":"RAAM","display_name_en":"Raam","display_name_he":"רע״ם","expected_seats":3.2283888976156323,"forecast_date":"2026-09-19","group_id":"ARAB_LISTS","headline_seats":4,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-19T23:59:59+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.5089116664393822,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.4910883335606178,"p_represented":0.5089116664393821,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_raam","raw_b5_point_pp":3.836079222749204,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":8.0,"seat_range_display":"0, 4–9","seat_range_high":9,"seat_range_low":4,"seat_range_mode":"ZERO_SEPARATED_CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"RETROSPECTIVE_CAUSAL_RECONSTRUCTION_NOT_ORIGINALLY_ISSUED","vote_mean_pp":3.5707666491996495,"vote_q10_pp":1.4382821842127158,"vote_q2_5_pp":0.9145118951849347,"vote_q90_pp":6.009777052701118,"vote_q97_5_pp":8.182345707073644,"zero_seat_probability":0.4910883335606178},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":5.737068715614603,"contest_party_id":"HADASH_TAAL_BALAD","display_name_en":"Joint List","display_name_he":"הרשימה המשותפת","expected_seats":7.265054616241011,"forecast_date":"2026-09-19","group_id":"ARAB_LISTS","headline_seats":8,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-19T23:59:59+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.9298765282030825,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.0701234717969175,"p_represented":0.9298765282030824,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_joint_list","raw_b5_point_pp":5.950158036023456,"seat_q10":4.0,"seat_q90":11.0,"seat_range_display":"5–11","seat_range_high":11,"seat_range_low":5,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"RETROSPECTIVE_CAUSAL_RECONSTRUCTION_NOT_ORIGINALLY_ISSUED","vote_mean_pp":5.807104985654615,"vote_q10_pp":3.493054404487705,"vote_q2_5_pp":2.500388322173966,"vote_q90_pp":8.312663984737794,"vote_q97_5_pp":11.130334735024455,"zero_seat_probability":0.0701234717969175},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":1.0481605979409576,"contest_party_id":"BLUE_WHITE","display_name_en":"Blue and White","display_name_he":"כחול לבן","expected_seats":0.11513125887638116,"forecast_date":"2026-09-19","group_id":"UNCOMMITTED","headline_seats":0,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-19T23:59:59+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.01681237603500929,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.9831876239649907,"p_represented":0.016812376035009274,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_blue_white","raw_b5_point_pp":1.0870919478281706,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":0.0,"seat_range_display":"0","seat_range_high":null,"seat_range_low":null,"seat_range_mode":"ZERO_ONLY_RARE_REPRESENTATION","snapshot_status":"RETROSPECTIVE_CAUSAL_RECONSTRUCTION_NOT_ORIGINALLY_ISSUED","vote_mean_pp":0.8392344575986681,"vote_q10_pp":0.14636676342754507,"vote_q2_5_pp":0.07117593235185497,"vote_q90_pp":1.8779397567308045,"vote_q97_5_pp":3.0084387423314123,"zero_seat_probability":0.9831876239649907},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":3.2249741679442003,"contest_party_id":"K26_NATIVE_LIST::RESERVISTS_AND_NEW_ECONOMIC_PARTY","display_name_en":"Reservists–Economic","display_name_he":"המילואימניקים והכלכלית","expected_seats":1.0365433356742653,"forecast_date":"2026-09-19","group_id":"UNCOMMITTED","headline_seats":0,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-19T23:59:59+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.14499501169247875,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.8550049883075213,"p_represented":0.14499501169247878,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_reservists_economic","raw_b5_point_pp":3.3447579090580133,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":5.0,"seat_range_display":"0, 4–11","seat_range_high":11,"seat_range_low":4,"seat_range_mode":"ZERO_SEPARATED_CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"RETROSPECTIVE_CAUSAL_RECONSTRUCTION_NOT_ORIGINALLY_ISSUED","vote_mean_pp":2.427807389565981,"vote_q10_pp":0.9465240916554293,"vote_q2_5_pp":0.6119604488585534,"vote_q90_pp":4.114361615194475,"vote_q97_5_pp":7.348650410682914,"zero_seat_probability":0.8550049883075213},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":17.11520901042183,"contest_party_id":"LIKUD","display_name_en":"Likud","display_name_he":"הליכוד","expected_seats":23.2252,"forecast_date":"2026-09-20","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":23,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-20T23:59:59+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":1.0,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.0,"p_represented":1.0,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_likud","raw_b5_point_pp":17.75091139389861,"seat_q10":18.0,"seat_q90":29.0,"seat_range_display":"18–29","seat_range_high":29,"seat_range_low":18,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"RETROSPECTIVE_CAUSAL_RECONSTRUCTION_NOT_ORIGINALLY_ISSUED","vote_mean_pp":17.115292588401942,"vote_q10_pp":13.215514599966044,"vote_q2_5_pp":11.451904660200052,"vote_q90_pp":21.323635096415543,"vote_q97_5_pp":23.96190482368388,"zero_seat_probability":0.0},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":5.468650202820907,"contest_party_id":"SHAS","display_name_en":"Shas","display_name_he":"ש״ס","expected_seats":6.51985,"forecast_date":"2026-09-20","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":7,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-20T23:59:59+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.82625,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.17375,"p_represented":0.82625,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_shas","raw_b5_point_pp":5.671769777125675,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":12.0,"seat_range_display":"5–12","seat_range_high":12,"seat_range_low":5,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"RETROSPECTIVE_CAUSAL_RECONSTRUCTION_NOT_ORIGINALLY_ISSUED","vote_mean_pp":5.468812563894185,"vote_q10_pp":2.7824199929624345,"vote_q2_5_pp":2.035120225606431,"vote_q90_pp":8.758341195766283,"vote_q97_5_pp":11.605463412690243,"zero_seat_probability":0.17375},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":6.1258474369678,"contest_party_id":"UNITED_TORAH_JUDAISM","display_name_en":"United Torah Judaism","display_name_he":"יהדות התורה","expected_seats":7.68335,"forecast_date":"2026-09-20","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":8,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-20T23:59:59+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.9096,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.0904,"p_represented":0.9096,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_utj","raw_b5_point_pp":6.353376987680519,"seat_q10":4.0,"seat_q90":13.0,"seat_range_display":"5–13","seat_range_high":13,"seat_range_low":5,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"RETROSPECTIVE_CAUSAL_RECONSTRUCTION_NOT_ORIGINALLY_ISSUED","vote_mean_pp":6.126491010356542,"vote_q10_pp":3.33544462141751,"vote_q2_5_pp":2.506156271428359,"vote_q90_pp":9.477346154689608,"vote_q97_5_pp":12.412339820909029,"zero_seat_probability":0.0904},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":5.885829484606344,"contest_party_id":"OTZMA_YEHUDIT","display_name_en":"Otzma Yehudit","display_name_he":"עוצמה יהודית","expected_seats":7.3091,"forecast_date":"2026-09-20","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":8,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-20T23:59:59+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.8976500000000001,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.10235,"p_represented":0.89765,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_otzma","raw_b5_point_pp":6.104444158246834,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":12.0,"seat_range_display":"5–12","seat_range_high":12,"seat_range_low":5,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"RETROSPECTIVE_CAUSAL_RECONSTRUCTION_NOT_ORIGINALLY_ISSUED","vote_mean_pp":5.885997933893686,"vote_q10_pp":3.2301104150637716,"vote_q2_5_pp":2.448732549449164,"vote_q90_pp":9.081496844308699,"vote_q97_5_pp":11.645959480786875,"zero_seat_probability":0.10235},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":3.953169242163494,"contest_party_id":"K26_NATIVE_LIST::RZP_AND_ZEHUT","display_name_en":"Religious Zionism–Zehut","display_name_he":"הציונות הדתית וזהות","expected_seats":3.738,"forecast_date":"2026-09-20","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":5,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-20T23:59:59+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.5226999999999999,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.4773,"p_represented":0.5227,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_religious_zionism_zehut","raw_b5_point_pp":4.1,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":9.0,"seat_range_display":"0, 4–11","seat_range_high":11,"seat_range_low":4,"seat_range_mode":"ZERO_SEPARATED_CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"RETROSPECTIVE_CAUSAL_RECONSTRUCTION_NOT_ORIGINALLY_ISSUED","vote_mean_pp":3.9527510923652027,"vote_q10_pp":1.5901303037701775,"vote_q2_5_pp":1.058907593992556,"vote_q90_pp":7.0462718860022875,"vote_q97_5_pp":10.285384914702341,"zero_seat_probability":0.4773},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":3.210123190261883,"contest_party_id":"WINTER_NEW_PARTY","display_name_en":"Amcha Yisrael","display_name_he":"עמך ישראל","expected_seats":2.59645,"forecast_date":"2026-09-20","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":0,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-20T23:59:59+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.3699,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.6301,"p_represented":0.3699,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_amcha_yisrael","raw_b5_point_pp":3.3293553283012693,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":8.0,"seat_range_display":"0, 4–11","seat_range_high":11,"seat_range_low":4,"seat_range_mode":"ZERO_SEPARATED_CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"RETROSPECTIVE_CAUSAL_RECONSTRUCTION_NOT_ORIGINALLY_ISSUED","vote_mean_pp":3.2096714575926897,"vote_q10_pp":1.0829748625653526,"vote_q2_5_pp":0.651144789119455,"vote_q90_pp":6.057370880652051,"vote_q97_5_pp":9.330756020014615,"zero_seat_probability":0.6301},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":0.528230480578496,"contest_party_id":"K26_NATIVE_LIST::HAREDI_PUBLIC","display_name_en":"Haredi Public","display_name_he":"הציבור החרדי","expected_seats":0.20565,"forecast_date":"2026-09-20","group_id":"UNCOMMITTED","headline_seats":0,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-20T23:59:59+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.02529999999999999,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.9747,"p_represented":0.0253,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_haredi_public","raw_b5_point_pp":0.547850303820173,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":0.0,"seat_range_display":"0","seat_range_high":null,"seat_range_low":null,"seat_range_mode":"ZERO_ONLY_RARE_REPRESENTATION","snapshot_status":"RETROSPECTIVE_CAUSAL_RECONSTRUCTION_NOT_ORIGINALLY_ISSUED","vote_mean_pp":0.5287430672021232,"vote_q10_pp":0.027693370447094048,"vote_q2_5_pp":0.010125877313324332,"vote_q90_pp":1.2084618989700644,"vote_q97_5_pp":3.2816567073067127,"zero_seat_probability":0.9747},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":9.94708058841424,"contest_party_id":"K26_NATIVE_LIST::BEYAHAD_BENNETT","display_name_en":"Beyachad","display_name_he":"ביחד","expected_seats":13.2913,"forecast_date":"2026-09-20","group_id":"CHANGE_CORE","headline_seats":13,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-20T23:59:59+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.99985,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.00015,"p_represented":0.99985,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_beyachad","raw_b5_point_pp":10.316540455065011,"seat_q10":9.0,"seat_q90":19.0,"seat_range_display":"9–19","seat_range_high":19,"seat_range_low":9,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"RETROSPECTIVE_CAUSAL_RECONSTRUCTION_NOT_ORIGINALLY_ISSUED","vote_mean_pp":9.947004174164116,"vote_q10_pp":6.603674627117554,"vote_q2_5_pp":5.394455107618106,"vote_q90_pp":13.7265600200076,"vote_q97_5_pp":16.439006062878107,"zero_seat_probability":0.00015},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":17.642075801098375,"contest_party_id":"YASHAR_GADI_EISENKOT","display_name_en":"Yashar!","display_name_he":"ישר!","expected_seats":23.95525,"forecast_date":"2026-09-20","group_id":"CHANGE_CORE","headline_seats":24,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-20T23:59:59+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":1.0,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.0,"p_represented":1.0,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_yashar","raw_b5_point_pp":18.29734735690626,"seat_q10":18.0,"seat_q90":30.0,"seat_range_display":"18–30","seat_range_high":30,"seat_range_low":18,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"RETROSPECTIVE_CAUSAL_RECONSTRUCTION_NOT_ORIGINALLY_ISSUED","vote_mean_pp":17.642389250227648,"vote_q10_pp":13.600877111644003,"vote_q2_5_pp":11.817625226113995,"vote_q90_pp":22.004402446333177,"vote_q97_5_pp":24.784296924406,"zero_seat_probability":0.0},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":6.5703709052730375,"contest_party_id":"YISRAEL_BEITEINU","display_name_en":"Yisrael Beiteinu","display_name_he":"ישראל ביתנו","expected_seats":8.4286,"forecast_date":"2026-09-20","group_id":"CHANGE_CORE","headline_seats":9,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-20T23:59:59+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.94995,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.05005,"p_represented":0.94995,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_yisrael_beiteinu","raw_b5_point_pp":6.814411187940062,"seat_q10":5.0,"seat_q90":13.0,"seat_range_display":"5–14","seat_range_high":14,"seat_range_low":5,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"RETROSPECTIVE_CAUSAL_RECONSTRUCTION_NOT_ORIGINALLY_ISSUED","vote_mean_pp":6.569602627974743,"vote_q10_pp":3.7300466229071487,"vote_q2_5_pp":2.863165057915305,"vote_q90_pp":9.974707819089286,"vote_q97_5_pp":12.687629684359509,"zero_seat_probability":0.05005},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":7.444510079826851,"contest_party_id":"THE_DEMOCRATS","display_name_en":"The Democrats","display_name_he":"הדמוקרטים","expected_seats":9.76185,"forecast_date":"2026-09-20","group_id":"CHANGE_CORE","headline_seats":10,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-20T23:59:59+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.98275,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.01725,"p_represented":0.98275,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_democrats","raw_b5_point_pp":7.721018114212006,"seat_q10":6.0,"seat_q90":15.0,"seat_range_display":"6–15","seat_range_high":15,"seat_range_low":6,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"RETROSPECTIVE_CAUSAL_RECONSTRUCTION_NOT_ORIGINALLY_ISSUED","vote_mean_pp":7.444751512165359,"vote_q10_pp":4.435155230641376,"vote_q2_5_pp":3.4570056886320386,"vote_q90_pp":11.034827587117213,"vote_q97_5_pp":13.789148622519749,"zero_seat_probability":0.01725},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":3.6987000960669754,"contest_party_id":"RAAM","display_name_en":"Raam","display_name_he":"רע״ם","expected_seats":3.3276,"forecast_date":"2026-09-20","group_id":"ARAB_LISTS","headline_seats":5,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-20T23:59:59+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.4746,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.5254,"p_represented":0.4746,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_raam","raw_b5_point_pp":3.836079222749204,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":9.0,"seat_range_display":"0, 4–11","seat_range_high":11,"seat_range_low":4,"seat_range_mode":"ZERO_SEPARATED_CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"RETROSPECTIVE_CAUSAL_RECONSTRUCTION_NOT_ORIGINALLY_ISSUED","vote_mean_pp":3.6984722738639735,"vote_q10_pp":1.437206337178566,"vote_q2_5_pp":0.9474032298185981,"vote_q90_pp":6.631856659944419,"vote_q97_5_pp":9.655276171625669,"zero_seat_probability":0.5254},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":5.737068715614603,"contest_party_id":"HADASH_TAAL_BALAD","display_name_en":"Joint List","display_name_he":"הרשימה המשותפת","expected_seats":6.9964,"forecast_date":"2026-09-20","group_id":"ARAB_LISTS","headline_seats":8,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-20T23:59:59+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.8617,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.1383,"p_represented":0.8617,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_joint_list","raw_b5_point_pp":5.950158036023456,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":12.0,"seat_range_display":"5–13","seat_range_high":13,"seat_range_low":5,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"RETROSPECTIVE_CAUSAL_RECONSTRUCTION_NOT_ORIGINALLY_ISSUED","vote_mean_pp":5.736688175367584,"vote_q10_pp":2.97942222960153,"vote_q2_5_pp":2.1649997459725787,"vote_q90_pp":9.100304789614801,"vote_q97_5_pp":11.98469509595212,"zero_seat_probability":0.1383},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":1.0481605979409576,"contest_party_id":"BLUE_WHITE","display_name_en":"Blue and White","display_name_he":"כחול לבן","expected_seats":0.3684,"forecast_date":"2026-09-20","group_id":"UNCOMMITTED","headline_seats":0,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-20T23:59:59+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.053549999999999986,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.94645,"p_represented":0.05355,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_blue_white","raw_b5_point_pp":1.0870919478281706,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":0.0,"seat_range_display":"0, 4–11","seat_range_high":11,"seat_range_low":4,"seat_range_mode":"ZERO_SEPARATED_CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"RETROSPECTIVE_CAUSAL_RECONSTRUCTION_NOT_ORIGINALLY_ISSUED","vote_mean_pp":1.0482989303653416,"vote_q10_pp":0.16821625016709882,"vote_q2_5_pp":0.08277033304943598,"vote_q90_pp":2.3104081377475727,"vote_q97_5_pp":4.531899213165124,"zero_seat_probability":0.94645},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":3.2249741679442003,"contest_party_id":"K26_NATIVE_LIST::RESERVISTS_AND_NEW_ECONOMIC_PARTY","display_name_en":"Reservists–Economic","display_name_he":"המילואימניקים והכלכלית","expected_seats":2.593,"forecast_date":"2026-09-20","group_id":"UNCOMMITTED","headline_seats":0,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-20T23:59:59+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.3679,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.6321,"p_represented":0.3679,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_reservists_economic","raw_b5_point_pp":3.3447579090580133,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":8.0,"seat_range_display":"0, 4–11","seat_range_high":11,"seat_range_low":4,"seat_range_mode":"ZERO_SEPARATED_CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"RETROSPECTIVE_CAUSAL_RECONSTRUCTION_NOT_ORIGINALLY_ISSUED","vote_mean_pp":3.225033342164861,"vote_q10_pp":1.0927679404270343,"vote_q2_5_pp":0.688699387973165,"vote_q90_pp":6.0919022715317865,"vote_q97_5_pp":9.508980754084078,"zero_seat_probability":0.6321},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":17.11520901042183,"contest_party_id":"LIKUD","display_name_en":"Likud","display_name_he":"הליכוד","expected_seats":24.056106226931846,"forecast_date":"2026-09-20","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":24,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-20T23:59:59+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":1.0,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.0,"p_represented":0.9999999999999999,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_likud","raw_b5_point_pp":17.75091139389861,"seat_q10":19.0,"seat_q90":29.0,"seat_range_display":"19–29","seat_range_high":29,"seat_range_low":19,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"RETROSPECTIVE_CAUSAL_RECONSTRUCTION_NOT_ORIGINALLY_ISSUED","vote_mean_pp":17.856473724928264,"vote_q10_pp":14.118735558876523,"vote_q2_5_pp":12.457118186105653,"vote_q90_pp":21.65853780003275,"vote_q97_5_pp":24.074208587305485,"zero_seat_probability":0.0},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":5.468650202820907,"contest_party_id":"SHAS","display_name_en":"Shas","display_name_he":"ש״ס","expected_seats":7.4678103694870055,"forecast_date":"2026-09-20","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":8,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-20T23:59:59+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.9383739376062934,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.06162606239370664,"p_represented":0.9383739376062933,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_shas","raw_b5_point_pp":5.671769777125675,"seat_q10":4.0,"seat_q90":11.0,"seat_range_display":"5–11","seat_range_high":11,"seat_range_low":5,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"RETROSPECTIVE_CAUSAL_RECONSTRUCTION_NOT_ORIGINALLY_ISSUED","vote_mean_pp":5.933885150671563,"vote_q10_pp":3.6215954309713414,"vote_q2_5_pp":2.5793004029913544,"vote_q90_pp":8.491604573239478,"vote_q97_5_pp":10.633882066000545,"zero_seat_probability":0.06162606239370664},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":6.1258474369678,"contest_party_id":"UNITED_TORAH_JUDAISM","display_name_en":"United Torah Judaism","display_name_he":"יהדות התורה","expected_seats":7.710863890544105,"forecast_date":"2026-09-20","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":8,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-20T23:59:59+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.9654029681977951,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.03459703180220487,"p_represented":0.9654029681977949,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_utj","raw_b5_point_pp":6.353376987680519,"seat_q10":5.0,"seat_q90":11.0,"seat_range_display":"5–11","seat_range_high":11,"seat_range_low":5,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"RETROSPECTIVE_CAUSAL_RECONSTRUCTION_NOT_ORIGINALLY_ISSUED","vote_mean_pp":6.055340359507019,"vote_q10_pp":3.8676953103327176,"vote_q2_5_pp":3.0247810464274214,"vote_q90_pp":8.366480988434148,"vote_q97_5_pp":10.895880781269353,"zero_seat_probability":0.03459703180220487},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":5.885829484606344,"contest_party_id":"OTZMA_YEHUDIT","display_name_en":"Otzma Yehudit","display_name_he":"עוצמה יהודית","expected_seats":7.572213587967958,"forecast_date":"2026-09-20","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":8,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-20T23:59:59+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.9595698088771173,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.04043019112288271,"p_represented":0.9595698088771173,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_otzma","raw_b5_point_pp":6.104444158246834,"seat_q10":5.0,"seat_q90":11.0,"seat_range_display":"5–11","seat_range_high":11,"seat_range_low":5,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"RETROSPECTIVE_CAUSAL_RECONSTRUCTION_NOT_ORIGINALLY_ISSUED","vote_mean_pp":5.9690678585866035,"vote_q10_pp":3.811947136875075,"vote_q2_5_pp":2.920247296315054,"vote_q90_pp":8.28830610505986,"vote_q97_5_pp":10.466579901562406,"zero_seat_probability":0.04043019112288271},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":3.953169242163494,"contest_party_id":"K26_NATIVE_LIST::RZP_AND_ZEHUT","display_name_en":"Religious Zionism–Zehut","display_name_he":"הציונות הדתית וזהות","expected_seats":4.25540593390781,"forecast_date":"2026-09-20","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":5,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-20T23:59:59+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.6329756821160165,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.3670243178839835,"p_represented":0.6329756821160164,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_religious_zionism_zehut","raw_b5_point_pp":4.1,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":9.0,"seat_range_display":"0, 4–10","seat_range_high":10,"seat_range_low":4,"seat_range_mode":"ZERO_SEPARATED_CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"RETROSPECTIVE_CAUSAL_RECONSTRUCTION_NOT_ORIGINALLY_ISSUED","vote_mean_pp":4.145417335914451,"vote_q10_pp":1.753319057729462,"vote_q2_5_pp":1.1499180377695686,"vote_q90_pp":6.695719851899548,"vote_q97_5_pp":8.758196146147888,"zero_seat_probability":0.3670243178839835},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":3.210123190261883,"contest_party_id":"WINTER_NEW_PARTY","display_name_en":"Amcha Yisrael","display_name_he":"עמך ישראל","expected_seats":2.031825056268705,"forecast_date":"2026-09-20","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":0,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-20T23:59:59+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.3354935179967601,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.6645064820032399,"p_represented":0.33549351799675997,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_amcha_yisrael","raw_b5_point_pp":3.3293553283012693,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":6.0,"seat_range_display":"0, 4–8","seat_range_high":8,"seat_range_low":4,"seat_range_mode":"ZERO_SEPARATED_CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"RETROSPECTIVE_CAUSAL_RECONSTRUCTION_NOT_ORIGINALLY_ISSUED","vote_mean_pp":2.8698225729121942,"vote_q10_pp":1.0698973322423275,"vote_q2_5_pp":0.6488047724113648,"vote_q90_pp":5.080734731048231,"vote_q97_5_pp":7.011003013900329,"zero_seat_probability":0.6645064820032399},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":0.528230480578496,"contest_party_id":"K26_NATIVE_LIST::HAREDI_PUBLIC","display_name_en":"Haredi Public","display_name_he":"הציבור החרדי","expected_seats":0.04215562778599856,"forecast_date":"2026-09-20","group_id":"UNCOMMITTED","headline_seats":0,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-20T23:59:59+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.005651552706482432,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.9943484472935176,"p_represented":0.005651552706482399,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_haredi_public","raw_b5_point_pp":0.547850303820173,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":0.0,"seat_range_display":"0","seat_range_high":null,"seat_range_low":null,"seat_range_mode":"ZERO_ONLY_RARE_REPRESENTATION","snapshot_status":"RETROSPECTIVE_CAUSAL_RECONSTRUCTION_NOT_ORIGINALLY_ISSUED","vote_mean_pp":0.3950797513984473,"vote_q10_pp":0.02669971917545332,"vote_q2_5_pp":0.009287011430061257,"vote_q90_pp":1.0044702805787142,"vote_q97_5_pp":2.1659368534388515,"zero_seat_probability":0.9943484472935176},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":9.94708058841424,"contest_party_id":"K26_NATIVE_LIST::BEYAHAD_BENNETT","display_name_en":"Beyachad","display_name_he":"ביחד","expected_seats":13.228519801614494,"forecast_date":"2026-09-20","group_id":"CHANGE_CORE","headline_seats":13,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-20T23:59:59+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.99993781466211,"p_below_legal_threshold":6.218533789009473e-05,"p_represented":0.9999378146621098,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_beyachad","raw_b5_point_pp":10.316540455065011,"seat_q10":9.0,"seat_q90":18.0,"seat_range_display":"9–18","seat_range_high":18,"seat_range_low":9,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"RETROSPECTIVE_CAUSAL_RECONSTRUCTION_NOT_ORIGINALLY_ISSUED","vote_mean_pp":9.981042356950187,"vote_q10_pp":7.0285112064294735,"vote_q2_5_pp":5.869624981948487,"vote_q90_pp":13.159983781098008,"vote_q97_5_pp":15.490469667666922,"zero_seat_probability":6.218533789009473e-05},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":17.642075801098375,"contest_party_id":"YASHAR_GADI_EISENKOT","display_name_en":"Yashar!","display_name_he":"ישר!","expected_seats":24.04891744688166,"forecast_date":"2026-09-20","group_id":"CHANGE_CORE","headline_seats":24,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-20T23:59:59+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":1.0,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.0,"p_represented":0.9999999999999999,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_yashar","raw_b5_point_pp":18.29734735690626,"seat_q10":20.0,"seat_q90":29.0,"seat_range_display":"20–29","seat_range_high":29,"seat_range_low":20,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"RETROSPECTIVE_CAUSAL_RECONSTRUCTION_NOT_ORIGINALLY_ISSUED","vote_mean_pp":17.856905731898873,"vote_q10_pp":14.798733000278746,"vote_q2_5_pp":13.332657997544988,"vote_q90_pp":21.08955573370456,"vote_q97_5_pp":23.866311022633653,"zero_seat_probability":0.0},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":6.5703709052730375,"contest_party_id":"YISRAEL_BEITEINU","display_name_en":"Yisrael Beiteinu","display_name_he":"ישראל ביתנו","expected_seats":8.18890475676331,"forecast_date":"2026-09-20","group_id":"CHANGE_CORE","headline_seats":8,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-20T23:59:59+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.9802728643236884,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.01972713567631157,"p_represented":0.9802728643236884,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_yisrael_beiteinu","raw_b5_point_pp":6.814411187940062,"seat_q10":5.0,"seat_q90":12.0,"seat_range_display":"5–12","seat_range_high":12,"seat_range_low":5,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"RETROSPECTIVE_CAUSAL_RECONSTRUCTION_NOT_ORIGINALLY_ISSUED","vote_mean_pp":6.369235153767791,"vote_q10_pp":4.160146250037484,"vote_q2_5_pp":3.34293926401021,"vote_q90_pp":8.75567428897675,"vote_q97_5_pp":11.302740516170774,"zero_seat_probability":0.01972713567631157},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":7.444510079826851,"contest_party_id":"THE_DEMOCRATS","display_name_en":"The Democrats","display_name_he":"הדמוקרטים","expected_seats":9.820504148638205,"forecast_date":"2026-09-20","group_id":"CHANGE_CORE","headline_seats":10,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-20T23:59:59+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.9958199783114952,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.004180021688504882,"p_represented":0.9958199783114949,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_democrats","raw_b5_point_pp":7.721018114212006,"seat_q10":7.0,"seat_q90":13.0,"seat_range_display":"7–13","seat_range_high":13,"seat_range_low":7,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"RETROSPECTIVE_CAUSAL_RECONSTRUCTION_NOT_ORIGINALLY_ISSUED","vote_mean_pp":7.508302283776099,"vote_q10_pp":5.142762960148906,"vote_q2_5_pp":4.136683589599092,"vote_q90_pp":10.009800324568667,"vote_q97_5_pp":12.628804345457183,"zero_seat_probability":0.004180021688504882},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":3.6987000960669754,"contest_party_id":"RAAM","display_name_en":"Raam","display_name_he":"רע״ם","expected_seats":3.237086953443051,"forecast_date":"2026-09-20","group_id":"ARAB_LISTS","headline_seats":4,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-20T23:59:59+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.5197193582518302,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.48028064174816976,"p_represented":0.5197193582518302,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_raam","raw_b5_point_pp":3.836079222749204,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":8.0,"seat_range_display":"0, 4–9","seat_range_high":9,"seat_range_low":4,"seat_range_mode":"ZERO_SEPARATED_CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"RETROSPECTIVE_CAUSAL_RECONSTRUCTION_NOT_ORIGINALLY_ISSUED","vote_mean_pp":3.5843712189584216,"vote_q10_pp":1.5081036967564045,"vote_q2_5_pp":0.9829879448311589,"vote_q90_pp":5.912147880176427,"vote_q97_5_pp":7.907959674820908,"zero_seat_probability":0.48028064174816976},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":5.737068715614603,"contest_party_id":"HADASH_TAAL_BALAD","display_name_en":"Joint List","display_name_he":"הרשימה המשותפת","expected_seats":7.2808804480979745,"forecast_date":"2026-09-20","group_id":"ARAB_LISTS","headline_seats":8,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-20T23:59:59+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.9373922388767777,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.06260776112322228,"p_represented":0.9373922388767777,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_joint_list","raw_b5_point_pp":5.950158036023456,"seat_q10":4.0,"seat_q90":11.0,"seat_range_display":"5–11","seat_range_high":11,"seat_range_low":5,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"RETROSPECTIVE_CAUSAL_RECONSTRUCTION_NOT_ORIGINALLY_ISSUED","vote_mean_pp":5.806611300832051,"vote_q10_pp":3.536869500987071,"vote_q2_5_pp":2.569786057923961,"vote_q90_pp":8.239352715259788,"vote_q97_5_pp":10.772173241808797,"zero_seat_probability":0.06260776112322228},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":1.0481605979409576,"contest_party_id":"BLUE_WHITE","display_name_en":"Blue and White","display_name_he":"כחול לבן","expected_seats":0.0926028029574856,"forecast_date":"2026-09-20","group_id":"UNCOMMITTED","headline_seats":0,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-20T23:59:59+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.013574712989259607,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.9864252870107404,"p_represented":0.013574712989259647,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_blue_white","raw_b5_point_pp":1.0870919478281706,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":0.0,"seat_range_display":"0","seat_range_high":null,"seat_range_low":null,"seat_range_mode":"ZERO_ONLY_RARE_REPRESENTATION","snapshot_status":"RETROSPECTIVE_CAUSAL_RECONSTRUCTION_NOT_ORIGINALLY_ISSUED","vote_mean_pp":0.8553992717355721,"vote_q10_pp":0.15885645810734683,"vote_q2_5_pp":0.07787672022575552,"vote_q90_pp":1.886999557964857,"vote_q97_5_pp":2.9300420065263832,"zero_seat_probability":0.9864252870107404},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":3.2249741679442003,"contest_party_id":"K26_NATIVE_LIST::RESERVISTS_AND_NEW_ECONOMIC_PARTY","display_name_en":"Reservists–Economic","display_name_he":"המילואימניקים והכלכלית","expected_seats":0.9662029487103785,"forecast_date":"2026-09-20","group_id":"UNCOMMITTED","headline_seats":0,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-20T23:59:59+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.1363577254291124,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.8636422745708876,"p_represented":0.1363577254291123,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_reservists_economic","raw_b5_point_pp":3.3447579090580133,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":5.0,"seat_range_display":"0, 4–11","seat_range_high":11,"seat_range_low":4,"seat_range_mode":"ZERO_SEPARATED_CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"RETROSPECTIVE_CAUSAL_RECONSTRUCTION_NOT_ORIGINALLY_ISSUED","vote_mean_pp":2.413045928162451,"vote_q10_pp":0.9933668968971723,"vote_q2_5_pp":0.6228654574837371,"vote_q90_pp":3.9575960456625836,"vote_q97_5_pp":7.20634839463843,"zero_seat_probability":0.8636422745708876},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":17.11520901042183,"contest_party_id":"LIKUD","display_name_en":"Likud","display_name_he":"הליכוד","expected_seats":23.21225,"forecast_date":"2026-09-21","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":23,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-21T23:59:59+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":1.0,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.0,"p_represented":1.0,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_likud","raw_b5_point_pp":17.75091139389861,"seat_q10":18.0,"seat_q90":29.0,"seat_range_display":"18–29","seat_range_high":29,"seat_range_low":18,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"RETROSPECTIVE_CAUSAL_RECONSTRUCTION_NOT_ORIGINALLY_ISSUED","vote_mean_pp":17.11565615079682,"vote_q10_pp":13.278701351082002,"vote_q2_5_pp":11.705465259376574,"vote_q90_pp":21.212755510402445,"vote_q97_5_pp":23.749995339836005,"zero_seat_probability":0.0},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":5.468650202820907,"contest_party_id":"SHAS","display_name_en":"Shas","display_name_he":"ש״ס","expected_seats":6.5442,"forecast_date":"2026-09-21","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":7,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-21T23:59:59+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.8392999999999999,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.1607,"p_represented":0.8393,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_shas","raw_b5_point_pp":5.671769777125675,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":11.0,"seat_range_display":"5–12","seat_range_high":12,"seat_range_low":5,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"RETROSPECTIVE_CAUSAL_RECONSTRUCTION_NOT_ORIGINALLY_ISSUED","vote_mean_pp":5.468819836377557,"vote_q10_pp":2.873766564700557,"vote_q2_5_pp":2.1514905053200057,"vote_q90_pp":8.626481322662237,"vote_q97_5_pp":11.415133148311964,"zero_seat_probability":0.1607},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":6.1258474369678,"contest_party_id":"UNITED_TORAH_JUDAISM","display_name_en":"United Torah Judaism","display_name_he":"יהדות התורה","expected_seats":7.7027,"forecast_date":"2026-09-21","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":8,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-21T23:59:59+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.91825,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.08175,"p_represented":0.91825,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_utj","raw_b5_point_pp":6.353376987680519,"seat_q10":4.0,"seat_q90":12.0,"seat_range_display":"5–13","seat_range_high":13,"seat_range_low":5,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"RETROSPECTIVE_CAUSAL_RECONSTRUCTION_NOT_ORIGINALLY_ISSUED","vote_mean_pp":6.12600387132607,"vote_q10_pp":3.4031801406972924,"vote_q2_5_pp":2.5639043752103188,"vote_q90_pp":9.368863489198274,"vote_q97_5_pp":12.121308996914566,"zero_seat_probability":0.08175},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":5.885829484606344,"contest_party_id":"OTZMA_YEHUDIT","display_name_en":"Otzma Yehudit","display_name_he":"עוצמה יהודית","expected_seats":7.34155,"forecast_date":"2026-09-21","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":8,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-21T23:59:59+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.9095,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.0905,"p_represented":0.9095,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_otzma","raw_b5_point_pp":6.104444158246834,"seat_q10":4.0,"seat_q90":12.0,"seat_range_display":"5–12","seat_range_high":12,"seat_range_low":5,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"RETROSPECTIVE_CAUSAL_RECONSTRUCTION_NOT_ORIGINALLY_ISSUED","vote_mean_pp":5.885468172556213,"vote_q10_pp":3.331997681454773,"vote_q2_5_pp":2.5393990757543983,"vote_q90_pp":8.932263777419006,"vote_q97_5_pp":11.536467742028067,"zero_seat_probability":0.0905},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":3.953169242163494,"contest_party_id":"K26_NATIVE_LIST::RZP_AND_ZEHUT","display_name_en":"Religious Zionism–Zehut","display_name_he":"הציונות הדתית וזהות","expected_seats":3.7539,"forecast_date":"2026-09-21","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":5,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-21T23:59:59+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.5377000000000001,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.4623,"p_represented":0.5377,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_religious_zionism_zehut","raw_b5_point_pp":4.1,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":9.0,"seat_range_display":"0, 4–11","seat_range_high":11,"seat_range_low":4,"seat_range_mode":"ZERO_SEPARATED_CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"RETROSPECTIVE_CAUSAL_RECONSTRUCTION_NOT_ORIGINALLY_ISSUED","vote_mean_pp":3.9534305243462136,"vote_q10_pp":1.643153905097585,"vote_q2_5_pp":1.1250678135689915,"vote_q90_pp":6.920948631211851,"vote_q97_5_pp":9.928334636207627,"zero_seat_probability":0.4623},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":3.210123190261883,"contest_party_id":"WINTER_NEW_PARTY","display_name_en":"Amcha Yisrael","display_name_he":"עמך ישראל","expected_seats":2.565,"forecast_date":"2026-09-21","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":0,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-21T23:59:59+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.37275,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.62725,"p_represented":0.37275,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_amcha_yisrael","raw_b5_point_pp":3.3293553283012693,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":8.0,"seat_range_display":"0, 4–11","seat_range_high":11,"seat_range_low":4,"seat_range_mode":"ZERO_SEPARATED_CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"RETROSPECTIVE_CAUSAL_RECONSTRUCTION_NOT_ORIGINALLY_ISSUED","vote_mean_pp":3.2096141485196727,"vote_q10_pp":1.1270357165558396,"vote_q2_5_pp":0.720837700915354,"vote_q90_pp":5.953952741315029,"vote_q97_5_pp":9.195736622192006,"zero_seat_probability":0.62725},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":0.528230480578496,"contest_party_id":"K26_NATIVE_LIST::HAREDI_PUBLIC","display_name_en":"Haredi Public","display_name_he":"הציבור החרדי","expected_seats":0.19195,"forecast_date":"2026-09-21","group_id":"UNCOMMITTED","headline_seats":0,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-21T23:59:59+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.022950000000000026,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.97705,"p_represented":0.02295,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_haredi_public","raw_b5_point_pp":0.547850303820173,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":0.0,"seat_range_display":"0","seat_range_high":null,"seat_range_low":null,"seat_range_mode":"ZERO_ONLY_RARE_REPRESENTATION","snapshot_status":"RETROSPECTIVE_CAUSAL_RECONSTRUCTION_NOT_ORIGINALLY_ISSUED","vote_mean_pp":0.5278622161817291,"vote_q10_pp":0.03048346480192971,"vote_q2_5_pp":0.011298693032218756,"vote_q90_pp":1.2303619294703785,"vote_q97_5_pp":3.084234534018933,"zero_seat_probability":0.97705},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":9.94708058841424,"contest_party_id":"K26_NATIVE_LIST::BEYAHAD_BENNETT","display_name_en":"Beyachad","display_name_he":"ביחד","expected_seats":13.282,"forecast_date":"2026-09-21","group_id":"CHANGE_CORE","headline_seats":13,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-21T23:59:59+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.99985,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.00015,"p_represented":0.99985,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_beyachad","raw_b5_point_pp":10.316540455065011,"seat_q10":9.0,"seat_q90":18.0,"seat_range_display":"9–18","seat_range_high":18,"seat_range_low":9,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"RETROSPECTIVE_CAUSAL_RECONSTRUCTION_NOT_ORIGINALLY_ISSUED","vote_mean_pp":9.947112970341594,"vote_q10_pp":6.754627743319249,"vote_q2_5_pp":5.524450538333451,"vote_q90_pp":13.586547109935543,"vote_q97_5_pp":16.19684710829661,"zero_seat_probability":0.00015},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":17.642075801098375,"contest_party_id":"YASHAR_GADI_EISENKOT","display_name_en":"Yashar!","display_name_he":"ישר!","expected_seats":23.94335,"forecast_date":"2026-09-21","group_id":"CHANGE_CORE","headline_seats":24,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-21T23:59:59+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":1.0,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.0,"p_represented":1.0,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_yashar","raw_b5_point_pp":18.29734735690626,"seat_q10":18.0,"seat_q90":30.0,"seat_range_display":"18–30","seat_range_high":30,"seat_range_low":18,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"RETROSPECTIVE_CAUSAL_RECONSTRUCTION_NOT_ORIGINALLY_ISSUED","vote_mean_pp":17.642138148746866,"vote_q10_pp":13.7201819196848,"vote_q2_5_pp":12.04181305740597,"vote_q90_pp":21.869594165859528,"vote_q97_5_pp":24.450273812067138,"zero_seat_probability":0.0},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":6.5703709052730375,"contest_party_id":"YISRAEL_BEITEINU","display_name_en":"Yisrael Beiteinu","display_name_he":"ישראל ביתנו","expected_seats":8.4537,"forecast_date":"2026-09-21","group_id":"CHANGE_CORE","headline_seats":9,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-21T23:59:59+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.9575,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.0425,"p_represented":0.9575,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_yisrael_beiteinu","raw_b5_point_pp":6.814411187940062,"seat_q10":5.0,"seat_q90":13.0,"seat_range_display":"5–13","seat_range_high":13,"seat_range_low":5,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"RETROSPECTIVE_CAUSAL_RECONSTRUCTION_NOT_ORIGINALLY_ISSUED","vote_mean_pp":6.57064985065037,"vote_q10_pp":3.847874636566294,"vote_q2_5_pp":2.9740739380274,"vote_q90_pp":9.805732046419697,"vote_q97_5_pp":12.478704965717393,"zero_seat_probability":0.0425},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":7.444510079826851,"contest_party_id":"THE_DEMOCRATS","display_name_en":"The Democrats","display_name_he":"הדמוקרטים","expected_seats":9.7639,"forecast_date":"2026-09-21","group_id":"CHANGE_CORE","headline_seats":10,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-21T23:59:59+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.9856,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.0144,"p_represented":0.9856,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_democrats","raw_b5_point_pp":7.721018114212006,"seat_q10":6.0,"seat_q90":15.0,"seat_range_display":"6–15","seat_range_high":15,"seat_range_low":6,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"RETROSPECTIVE_CAUSAL_RECONSTRUCTION_NOT_ORIGINALLY_ISSUED","vote_mean_pp":7.445064599430727,"vote_q10_pp":4.500148727289386,"vote_q2_5_pp":3.5261113921290503,"vote_q90_pp":10.882643210497717,"vote_q97_5_pp":13.478390649277559,"zero_seat_probability":0.0144},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":3.6987000960669754,"contest_party_id":"RAAM","display_name_en":"Raam","display_name_he":"רע״ם","expected_seats":3.3172,"forecast_date":"2026-09-21","group_id":"ARAB_LISTS","headline_seats":5,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-21T23:59:59+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.4848,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.5152,"p_represented":0.4848,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_raam","raw_b5_point_pp":3.836079222749204,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":8.0,"seat_range_display":"0, 4–11","seat_range_high":11,"seat_range_low":4,"seat_range_mode":"ZERO_SEPARATED_CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"RETROSPECTIVE_CAUSAL_RECONSTRUCTION_NOT_ORIGINALLY_ISSUED","vote_mean_pp":3.6984732521761043,"vote_q10_pp":1.5107465730110303,"vote_q2_5_pp":1.004875655820632,"vote_q90_pp":6.514848480017746,"vote_q97_5_pp":9.472542443756417,"zero_seat_probability":0.5152},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":5.737068715614603,"contest_party_id":"HADASH_TAAL_BALAD","display_name_en":"Joint List","display_name_he":"הרשימה המשותפת","expected_seats":7.0201,"forecast_date":"2026-09-21","group_id":"ARAB_LISTS","headline_seats":8,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-21T23:59:59+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.872,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.128,"p_represented":0.872,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_joint_list","raw_b5_point_pp":5.950158036023456,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":12.0,"seat_range_display":"5–12","seat_range_high":12,"seat_range_low":5,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"RETROSPECTIVE_CAUSAL_RECONSTRUCTION_NOT_ORIGINALLY_ISSUED","vote_mean_pp":5.737410619742341,"vote_q10_pp":3.0475895901601104,"vote_q2_5_pp":2.2684508153109393,"vote_q90_pp":9.00180773426018,"vote_q97_5_pp":11.803989317322754,"zero_seat_probability":0.128},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":1.0481605979409576,"contest_party_id":"BLUE_WHITE","display_name_en":"Blue and White","display_name_he":"כחול לבן","expected_seats":0.3269,"forecast_date":"2026-09-21","group_id":"UNCOMMITTED","headline_seats":0,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-21T23:59:59+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.05005000000000004,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.94995,"p_represented":0.05005,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_blue_white","raw_b5_point_pp":1.0870919478281706,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":0.0,"seat_range_display":"0, 4–10","seat_range_high":10,"seat_range_low":4,"seat_range_mode":"ZERO_SEPARATED_CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"RETROSPECTIVE_CAUSAL_RECONSTRUCTION_NOT_ORIGINALLY_ISSUED","vote_mean_pp":1.0474532076520677,"vote_q10_pp":0.18204962121213797,"vote_q2_5_pp":0.09160059116482053,"vote_q90_pp":2.3128190110922198,"vote_q97_5_pp":4.294282224318119,"zero_seat_probability":0.94995},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":3.2249741679442003,"contest_party_id":"K26_NATIVE_LIST::RESERVISTS_AND_NEW_ECONOMIC_PARTY","display_name_en":"Reservists–Economic","display_name_he":"המילואימניקים והכלכלית","expected_seats":2.5813,"forecast_date":"2026-09-21","group_id":"UNCOMMITTED","headline_seats":0,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-21T23:59:59+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.37595,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.62405,"p_represented":0.37595,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_reservists_economic","raw_b5_point_pp":3.3447579090580133,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":8.0,"seat_range_display":"0, 4–11","seat_range_high":11,"seat_range_low":4,"seat_range_mode":"ZERO_SEPARATED_CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"RETROSPECTIVE_CAUSAL_RECONSTRUCTION_NOT_ORIGINALLY_ISSUED","vote_mean_pp":3.2248424311556505,"vote_q10_pp":1.152433281851252,"vote_q2_5_pp":0.7444954330202178,"vote_q90_pp":5.9509340565164095,"vote_q97_5_pp":9.075916194869938,"zero_seat_probability":0.62405},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":17.11520901042183,"contest_party_id":"LIKUD","display_name_en":"Likud","display_name_he":"הליכוד","expected_seats":23.99227832042615,"forecast_date":"2026-09-21","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":24,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-21T23:59:59+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":1.0,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.0,"p_represented":1.0,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_likud","raw_b5_point_pp":17.75091139389861,"seat_q10":19.0,"seat_q90":29.0,"seat_range_display":"19–29","seat_range_high":29,"seat_range_low":19,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"RETROSPECTIVE_CAUSAL_RECONSTRUCTION_NOT_ORIGINALLY_ISSUED","vote_mean_pp":17.806719998688834,"vote_q10_pp":14.15075420765984,"vote_q2_5_pp":12.516382774942569,"vote_q90_pp":21.578883004776877,"vote_q97_5_pp":23.767563035997984,"zero_seat_probability":0.0},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":5.468650202820907,"contest_party_id":"SHAS","display_name_en":"Shas","display_name_he":"ש״ס","expected_seats":7.448773557739017,"forecast_date":"2026-09-21","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":8,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-21T23:59:59+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.9418817725760115,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.05811822742398853,"p_represented":0.9418817725760116,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_shas","raw_b5_point_pp":5.671769777125675,"seat_q10":5.0,"seat_q90":11.0,"seat_range_display":"5–11","seat_range_high":11,"seat_range_low":5,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"RETROSPECTIVE_CAUSAL_RECONSTRUCTION_NOT_ORIGINALLY_ISSUED","vote_mean_pp":5.915913380582436,"vote_q10_pp":3.6554600887121547,"vote_q2_5_pp":2.652946683884454,"vote_q90_pp":8.393573969533092,"vote_q97_5_pp":10.339778317100615,"zero_seat_probability":0.05811822742398853},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":6.1258474369678,"contest_party_id":"UNITED_TORAH_JUDAISM","display_name_en":"United Torah Judaism","display_name_he":"יהדות התורה","expected_seats":7.710188440462492,"forecast_date":"2026-09-21","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":8,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-21T23:59:59+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.9669065218263577,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.03309347817364227,"p_represented":0.9669065218263578,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_utj","raw_b5_point_pp":6.353376987680519,"seat_q10":5.0,"seat_q90":11.0,"seat_range_display":"5–11","seat_range_high":11,"seat_range_low":5,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"RETROSPECTIVE_CAUSAL_RECONSTRUCTION_NOT_ORIGINALLY_ISSUED","vote_mean_pp":6.05813143633036,"vote_q10_pp":3.931759566238919,"vote_q2_5_pp":3.089853382890369,"vote_q90_pp":8.339244538946405,"vote_q97_5_pp":10.655931474769618,"zero_seat_probability":0.03309347817364227},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":5.885829484606344,"contest_party_id":"OTZMA_YEHUDIT","display_name_en":"Otzma Yehudit","display_name_he":"עוצמה יהודית","expected_seats":7.622952875892026,"forecast_date":"2026-09-21","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":8,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-21T23:59:59+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.9663376969397061,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.03366230306029392,"p_represented":0.9663376969397062,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_otzma","raw_b5_point_pp":6.104444158246834,"seat_q10":5.0,"seat_q90":11.0,"seat_range_display":"5–11","seat_range_high":11,"seat_range_low":5,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"RETROSPECTIVE_CAUSAL_RECONSTRUCTION_NOT_ORIGINALLY_ISSUED","vote_mean_pp":5.991046362223145,"vote_q10_pp":3.9080647712986654,"vote_q2_5_pp":3.071216688088246,"vote_q90_pp":8.238685926938603,"vote_q97_5_pp":10.292635757999209,"zero_seat_probability":0.03366230306029392},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":3.953169242163494,"contest_party_id":"K26_NATIVE_LIST::RZP_AND_ZEHUT","display_name_en":"Religious Zionism–Zehut","display_name_he":"הציונות הדתית וזהות","expected_seats":4.337792411621543,"forecast_date":"2026-09-21","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":5,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-21T23:59:59+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.6572097080847976,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.3427902919152024,"p_represented":0.6572097080847976,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_religious_zionism_zehut","raw_b5_point_pp":4.1,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":9.0,"seat_range_display":"0, 4–9","seat_range_high":9,"seat_range_low":4,"seat_range_mode":"ZERO_SEPARATED_CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"RETROSPECTIVE_CAUSAL_RECONSTRUCTION_NOT_ORIGINALLY_ISSUED","vote_mean_pp":4.184518969681697,"vote_q10_pp":1.837117455976892,"vote_q2_5_pp":1.2142704488833393,"vote_q90_pp":6.739570494256559,"vote_q97_5_pp":8.596742214245856,"zero_seat_probability":0.3427902919152024},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":3.210123190261883,"contest_party_id":"WINTER_NEW_PARTY","display_name_en":"Amcha Yisrael","display_name_he":"עמך ישראל","expected_seats":1.98008204200939,"forecast_date":"2026-09-21","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":0,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-21T23:59:59+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.3294241110819609,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.6705758889180391,"p_represented":0.3294241110819609,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_amcha_yisrael","raw_b5_point_pp":3.3293553283012693,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":6.0,"seat_range_display":"0, 4–8","seat_range_high":8,"seat_range_low":4,"seat_range_mode":"ZERO_SEPARATED_CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"RETROSPECTIVE_CAUSAL_RECONSTRUCTION_NOT_ORIGINALLY_ISSUED","vote_mean_pp":2.867890774921224,"vote_q10_pp":1.1165582614438456,"vote_q2_5_pp":0.695731416491468,"vote_q90_pp":4.967280795726699,"vote_q97_5_pp":6.837723416286604,"zero_seat_probability":0.6705758889180391},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":0.528230480578496,"contest_party_id":"K26_NATIVE_LIST::HAREDI_PUBLIC","display_name_en":"Haredi Public","display_name_he":"הציבור החרדי","expected_seats":0.045121870376496793,"forecast_date":"2026-09-21","group_id":"UNCOMMITTED","headline_seats":0,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-21T23:59:59+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.005691933221436352,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.9943080667785636,"p_represented":0.005691933221436362,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_haredi_public","raw_b5_point_pp":0.547850303820173,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":0.0,"seat_range_display":"0","seat_range_high":null,"seat_range_low":null,"seat_range_mode":"ZERO_ONLY_RARE_REPRESENTATION","snapshot_status":"RETROSPECTIVE_CAUSAL_RECONSTRUCTION_NOT_ORIGINALLY_ISSUED","vote_mean_pp":0.3930163835012337,"vote_q10_pp":0.026877322116300003,"vote_q2_5_pp":0.01088117034215358,"vote_q90_pp":0.9853566286136574,"vote_q97_5_pp":2.152604512561003,"zero_seat_probability":0.9943080667785636},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":9.94708058841424,"contest_party_id":"K26_NATIVE_LIST::BEYAHAD_BENNETT","display_name_en":"Beyachad","display_name_he":"ביחד","expected_seats":13.204715681548588,"forecast_date":"2026-09-21","group_id":"CHANGE_CORE","headline_seats":13,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-21T23:59:59+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.9999955231022343,"p_below_legal_threshold":4.476897765761384e-06,"p_represented":0.9999955231022344,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_beyachad","raw_b5_point_pp":10.316540455065011,"seat_q10":9.0,"seat_q90":18.0,"seat_range_display":"9–18","seat_range_high":18,"seat_range_low":9,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"RETROSPECTIVE_CAUSAL_RECONSTRUCTION_NOT_ORIGINALLY_ISSUED","vote_mean_pp":9.965929912148468,"vote_q10_pp":7.076917191948004,"vote_q2_5_pp":5.941654367784764,"vote_q90_pp":13.063253408654814,"vote_q97_5_pp":15.144120814303074,"zero_seat_probability":4.476897765761384e-06},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":17.642075801098375,"contest_party_id":"YASHAR_GADI_EISENKOT","display_name_en":"Yashar!","display_name_he":"ישר!","expected_seats":23.94539512935569,"forecast_date":"2026-09-21","group_id":"CHANGE_CORE","headline_seats":24,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-21T23:59:59+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":1.0,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.0,"p_represented":1.0,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_yashar","raw_b5_point_pp":18.29734735690626,"seat_q10":20.0,"seat_q90":28.0,"seat_range_display":"20–28","seat_range_high":28,"seat_range_low":20,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"RETROSPECTIVE_CAUSAL_RECONSTRUCTION_NOT_ORIGINALLY_ISSUED","vote_mean_pp":17.782322591582307,"vote_q10_pp":14.830058585317484,"vote_q2_5_pp":13.438007882768535,"vote_q90_pp":20.89764440544054,"vote_q97_5_pp":23.430048570731593,"zero_seat_probability":0.0},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":6.5703709052730375,"contest_party_id":"YISRAEL_BEITEINU","display_name_en":"Yisrael Beiteinu","display_name_he":"ישראל ביתנו","expected_seats":8.178949753951514,"forecast_date":"2026-09-21","group_id":"CHANGE_CORE","headline_seats":8,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-21T23:59:59+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.9828570289608964,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.017142971039103526,"p_represented":0.9828570289608964,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_yisrael_beiteinu","raw_b5_point_pp":6.814411187940062,"seat_q10":5.0,"seat_q90":11.0,"seat_range_display":"5–11","seat_range_high":11,"seat_range_low":5,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"RETROSPECTIVE_CAUSAL_RECONSTRUCTION_NOT_ORIGINALLY_ISSUED","vote_mean_pp":6.355490643660808,"vote_q10_pp":4.2012432032640525,"vote_q2_5_pp":3.4389259732541726,"vote_q90_pp":8.639580917658453,"vote_q97_5_pp":11.084519781388956,"zero_seat_probability":0.017142971039103526},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":7.444510079826851,"contest_party_id":"THE_DEMOCRATS","display_name_en":"The Democrats","display_name_he":"הדמוקרטים","expected_seats":9.804777805320146,"forecast_date":"2026-09-21","group_id":"CHANGE_CORE","headline_seats":10,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-21T23:59:59+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.9971481631031444,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.002851836896855599,"p_represented":0.9971481631031444,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_democrats","raw_b5_point_pp":7.721018114212006,"seat_q10":7.0,"seat_q90":13.0,"seat_range_display":"7–13","seat_range_high":13,"seat_range_low":7,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"RETROSPECTIVE_CAUSAL_RECONSTRUCTION_NOT_ORIGINALLY_ISSUED","vote_mean_pp":7.496735043384751,"vote_q10_pp":5.207001199557904,"vote_q2_5_pp":4.265372489164111,"vote_q90_pp":9.929404649299508,"vote_q97_5_pp":12.292906055842963,"zero_seat_probability":0.002851836896855599},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":3.6987000960669754,"contest_party_id":"RAAM","display_name_en":"Raam","display_name_he":"רע״ם","expected_seats":3.2973519999406404,"forecast_date":"2026-09-21","group_id":"ARAB_LISTS","headline_seats":4,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-21T23:59:59+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.5354051801500248,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.4645948198499752,"p_represented":0.5354051801500248,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_raam","raw_b5_point_pp":3.836079222749204,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":7.0,"seat_range_display":"0, 4–9","seat_range_high":9,"seat_range_low":4,"seat_range_mode":"ZERO_SEPARATED_CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"RETROSPECTIVE_CAUSAL_RECONSTRUCTION_NOT_ORIGINALLY_ISSUED","vote_mean_pp":3.6162565743059485,"vote_q10_pp":1.5543833939878462,"vote_q2_5_pp":1.064620333697135,"vote_q90_pp":5.836935672347744,"vote_q97_5_pp":7.825374926637413,"zero_seat_probability":0.4645948198499752},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":5.737068715614603,"contest_party_id":"HADASH_TAAL_BALAD","display_name_en":"Joint List","display_name_he":"הרשימה המשותפת","expected_seats":7.378672640516998,"forecast_date":"2026-09-21","group_id":"ARAB_LISTS","headline_seats":8,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-21T23:59:59+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.9450277455059884,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.054972254494011503,"p_represented":0.9450277455059886,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_joint_list","raw_b5_point_pp":5.950158036023456,"seat_q10":5.0,"seat_q90":11.0,"seat_range_display":"5–11","seat_range_high":11,"seat_range_low":5,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"RETROSPECTIVE_CAUSAL_RECONSTRUCTION_NOT_ORIGINALLY_ISSUED","vote_mean_pp":5.8594285912152975,"vote_q10_pp":3.6511825718475936,"vote_q2_5_pp":2.7048110773083707,"vote_q90_pp":8.27000464828165,"vote_q97_5_pp":10.559799217664029,"zero_seat_probability":0.054972254494011503},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":1.0481605979409576,"contest_party_id":"BLUE_WHITE","display_name_en":"Blue and White","display_name_he":"כחול לבן","expected_seats":0.08091549680048896,"forecast_date":"2026-09-21","group_id":"UNCOMMITTED","headline_seats":0,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-21T23:59:59+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.012638406768024524,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.9873615932319755,"p_represented":0.012638406768024572,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_blue_white","raw_b5_point_pp":1.0870919478281706,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":0.0,"seat_range_display":"0","seat_range_high":null,"seat_range_low":null,"seat_range_mode":"ZERO_ONLY_RARE_REPRESENTATION","snapshot_status":"RETROSPECTIVE_CAUSAL_RECONSTRUCTION_NOT_ORIGINALLY_ISSUED","vote_mean_pp":0.8758223572869435,"vote_q10_pp":0.17532309958805162,"vote_q2_5_pp":0.08493039264383796,"vote_q90_pp":1.9329954012337995,"vote_q97_5_pp":2.9386225856821273,"zero_seat_probability":0.9873615932319755},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":3.2249741679442003,"contest_party_id":"K26_NATIVE_LIST::RESERVISTS_AND_NEW_ECONOMIC_PARTY","display_name_en":"Reservists–Economic","display_name_he":"המילואימניקים והכלכלית","expected_seats":0.9720319740388246,"forecast_date":"2026-09-21","group_id":"UNCOMMITTED","headline_seats":0,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-21T23:59:59+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.14017450230830253,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.8598254976916975,"p_represented":0.14017450230830258,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_reservists_economic","raw_b5_point_pp":3.3447579090580133,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":5.0,"seat_range_display":"0, 4–11","seat_range_high":11,"seat_range_low":4,"seat_range_mode":"ZERO_SEPARATED_CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"RETROSPECTIVE_CAUSAL_RECONSTRUCTION_NOT_ORIGINALLY_ISSUED","vote_mean_pp":2.430776980486547,"vote_q10_pp":1.0418517846867164,"vote_q2_5_pp":0.6987710941668372,"vote_q90_pp":4.0136248153657865,"vote_q97_5_pp":6.976737203687581,"zero_seat_probability":0.8598254976916975},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":17.11520901042183,"contest_party_id":"LIKUD","display_name_en":"Likud","display_name_he":"הליכוד","expected_seats":23.20395,"forecast_date":"2026-09-22","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":23,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-22T23:59:59+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":1.0,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.0,"p_represented":1.0,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_likud","raw_b5_point_pp":17.75091139389861,"seat_q10":18.0,"seat_q90":29.0,"seat_range_display":"18–29","seat_range_high":29,"seat_range_low":18,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"RETROSPECTIVE_CAUSAL_RECONSTRUCTION_NOT_ORIGINALLY_ISSUED","vote_mean_pp":17.115447435537163,"vote_q10_pp":13.44685140765134,"vote_q2_5_pp":11.889098354387853,"vote_q90_pp":21.018834599171676,"vote_q97_5_pp":23.294289076789475,"zero_seat_probability":0.0},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":5.468650202820907,"contest_party_id":"SHAS","display_name_en":"Shas","display_name_he":"ש״ס","expected_seats":6.5792,"forecast_date":"2026-09-22","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":7,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-22T23:59:59+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.85345,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.14655,"p_represented":0.85345,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_shas","raw_b5_point_pp":5.671769777125675,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":11.0,"seat_range_display":"5–12","seat_range_high":12,"seat_range_low":5,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"RETROSPECTIVE_CAUSAL_RECONSTRUCTION_NOT_ORIGINALLY_ISSUED","vote_mean_pp":5.468835111515471,"vote_q10_pp":2.9509591618381297,"vote_q2_5_pp":2.237475987170548,"vote_q90_pp":8.538254611372329,"vote_q97_5_pp":11.233420753688973,"zero_seat_probability":0.14655},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":6.1258474369678,"contest_party_id":"UNITED_TORAH_JUDAISM","display_name_en":"United Torah Judaism","display_name_he":"יהדות התורה","expected_seats":7.7424,"forecast_date":"2026-09-22","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":8,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-22T23:59:59+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.93135,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.06865,"p_represented":0.93135,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_utj","raw_b5_point_pp":6.353376987680519,"seat_q10":4.0,"seat_q90":12.0,"seat_range_display":"5–13","seat_range_high":13,"seat_range_low":5,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"RETROSPECTIVE_CAUSAL_RECONSTRUCTION_NOT_ORIGINALLY_ISSUED","vote_mean_pp":6.125994532919299,"vote_q10_pp":3.509633475843739,"vote_q2_5_pp":2.684765830529835,"vote_q90_pp":9.293500397135896,"vote_q97_5_pp":11.834517689314831,"zero_seat_probability":0.06865},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":5.885829484606344,"contest_party_id":"OTZMA_YEHUDIT","display_name_en":"Otzma Yehudit","display_name_he":"עוצמה יהודית","expected_seats":7.36315,"forecast_date":"2026-09-22","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":8,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-22T23:59:59+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.91825,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.08175,"p_represented":0.91825,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_otzma","raw_b5_point_pp":6.104444158246834,"seat_q10":4.0,"seat_q90":12.0,"seat_range_display":"5–12","seat_range_high":12,"seat_range_low":5,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"RETROSPECTIVE_CAUSAL_RECONSTRUCTION_NOT_ORIGINALLY_ISSUED","vote_mean_pp":5.886125909485847,"vote_q10_pp":3.3956129479175106,"vote_q2_5_pp":2.6273614957170586,"vote_q90_pp":8.797562055505113,"vote_q97_5_pp":11.150374991277772,"zero_seat_probability":0.08175},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":3.953169242163494,"contest_party_id":"K26_NATIVE_LIST::RZP_AND_ZEHUT","display_name_en":"Religious Zionism–Zehut","display_name_he":"הציונות הדתית וזהות","expected_seats":3.74625,"forecast_date":"2026-09-22","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":5,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-22T23:59:59+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.5467,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.4533,"p_represented":0.5467,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_religious_zionism_zehut","raw_b5_point_pp":4.1,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":9.0,"seat_range_display":"0, 4–10","seat_range_high":10,"seat_range_low":4,"seat_range_mode":"ZERO_SEPARATED_CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"RETROSPECTIVE_CAUSAL_RECONSTRUCTION_NOT_ORIGINALLY_ISSUED","vote_mean_pp":3.9529511343967823,"vote_q10_pp":1.7453103330931474,"vote_q2_5_pp":1.2103227622894301,"vote_q90_pp":6.757698223988861,"vote_q97_5_pp":9.513790363295168,"zero_seat_probability":0.4533},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":3.210123190261883,"contest_party_id":"WINTER_NEW_PARTY","display_name_en":"Amcha Yisrael","display_name_he":"עמך ישראל","expected_seats":2.53165,"forecast_date":"2026-09-22","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":0,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-22T23:59:59+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.37660000000000005,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.6234,"p_represented":0.3766,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_amcha_yisrael","raw_b5_point_pp":3.3293553283012693,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":8.0,"seat_range_display":"0, 4–10","seat_range_high":10,"seat_range_low":4,"seat_range_mode":"ZERO_SEPARATED_CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"RETROSPECTIVE_CAUSAL_RECONSTRUCTION_NOT_ORIGINALLY_ISSUED","vote_mean_pp":3.2105900052594167,"vote_q10_pp":1.2035490438387006,"vote_q2_5_pp":0.7795315236091181,"vote_q90_pp":5.8973977144501575,"vote_q97_5_pp":8.795606316460246,"zero_seat_probability":0.6234},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":0.528230480578496,"contest_party_id":"K26_NATIVE_LIST::HAREDI_PUBLIC","display_name_en":"Haredi Public","display_name_he":"הציבור החרדי","expected_seats":0.16305,"forecast_date":"2026-09-22","group_id":"UNCOMMITTED","headline_seats":0,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-22T23:59:59+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.02100000000000002,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.979,"p_represented":0.021,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_haredi_public","raw_b5_point_pp":0.547850303820173,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":0.0,"seat_range_display":"0","seat_range_high":null,"seat_range_low":null,"seat_range_mode":"ZERO_ONLY_RARE_REPRESENTATION","snapshot_status":"RETROSPECTIVE_CAUSAL_RECONSTRUCTION_NOT_ORIGINALLY_ISSUED","vote_mean_pp":0.5281600480353114,"vote_q10_pp":0.03680301451871697,"vote_q2_5_pp":0.015403031162052485,"vote_q90_pp":1.2239983033086432,"vote_q97_5_pp":2.978430706458775,"zero_seat_probability":0.979},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":9.94708058841424,"contest_party_id":"K26_NATIVE_LIST::BEYAHAD_BENNETT","display_name_en":"Beyachad","display_name_he":"ביחד","expected_seats":13.27525,"forecast_date":"2026-09-22","group_id":"CHANGE_CORE","headline_seats":13,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-22T23:59:59+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.9999,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.0001,"p_represented":0.9999,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_beyachad","raw_b5_point_pp":10.316540455065011,"seat_q10":9.0,"seat_q90":18.0,"seat_range_display":"9–18","seat_range_high":18,"seat_range_low":9,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"RETROSPECTIVE_CAUSAL_RECONSTRUCTION_NOT_ORIGINALLY_ISSUED","vote_mean_pp":9.947052291189094,"vote_q10_pp":6.858241197292042,"vote_q2_5_pp":5.690526153918602,"vote_q90_pp":13.417237856140723,"vote_q97_5_pp":15.852900961521781,"zero_seat_probability":0.0001},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":17.642075801098375,"contest_party_id":"YASHAR_GADI_EISENKOT","display_name_en":"Yashar!","display_name_he":"ישר!","expected_seats":23.9345,"forecast_date":"2026-09-22","group_id":"CHANGE_CORE","headline_seats":24,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-22T23:59:59+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":1.0,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.0,"p_represented":1.0,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_yashar","raw_b5_point_pp":18.29734735690626,"seat_q10":19.0,"seat_q90":30.0,"seat_range_display":"19–30","seat_range_high":30,"seat_range_low":19,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"RETROSPECTIVE_CAUSAL_RECONSTRUCTION_NOT_ORIGINALLY_ISSUED","vote_mean_pp":17.642162653167926,"vote_q10_pp":13.882388557526731,"vote_q2_5_pp":12.234889051005023,"vote_q90_pp":21.666556036272887,"vote_q97_5_pp":24.164740661654715,"zero_seat_probability":0.0},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":6.5703709052730375,"contest_party_id":"YISRAEL_BEITEINU","display_name_en":"Yisrael Beiteinu","display_name_he":"ישראל ביתנו","expected_seats":8.46305,"forecast_date":"2026-09-22","group_id":"CHANGE_CORE","headline_seats":9,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-22T23:59:59+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.9635,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.0365,"p_represented":0.9635,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_yisrael_beiteinu","raw_b5_point_pp":6.814411187940062,"seat_q10":5.0,"seat_q90":13.0,"seat_range_display":"5–13","seat_range_high":13,"seat_range_low":5,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"RETROSPECTIVE_CAUSAL_RECONSTRUCTION_NOT_ORIGINALLY_ISSUED","vote_mean_pp":6.570218124113203,"vote_q10_pp":3.9558703701652367,"vote_q2_5_pp":3.0640784224095983,"vote_q90_pp":9.666571037262887,"vote_q97_5_pp":12.107462344901904,"zero_seat_probability":0.0365},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":7.444510079826851,"contest_party_id":"THE_DEMOCRATS","display_name_en":"The Democrats","display_name_he":"הדמוקרטים","expected_seats":9.7728,"forecast_date":"2026-09-22","group_id":"CHANGE_CORE","headline_seats":10,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-22T23:59:59+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.99,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.01,"p_represented":0.99,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_democrats","raw_b5_point_pp":7.721018114212006,"seat_q10":6.0,"seat_q90":14.0,"seat_range_display":"6–14","seat_range_high":14,"seat_range_low":6,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"RETROSPECTIVE_CAUSAL_RECONSTRUCTION_NOT_ORIGINALLY_ISSUED","vote_mean_pp":7.4442577554816936,"vote_q10_pp":4.64349971817739,"vote_q2_5_pp":3.692876286145215,"vote_q90_pp":10.692567235339885,"vote_q97_5_pp":13.274955116315233,"zero_seat_probability":0.01},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":3.6987000960669754,"contest_party_id":"RAAM","display_name_en":"Raam","display_name_he":"רע״ם","expected_seats":3.29735,"forecast_date":"2026-09-22","group_id":"ARAB_LISTS","headline_seats":5,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-22T23:59:59+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.49129999999999996,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.5087,"p_represented":0.4913,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_raam","raw_b5_point_pp":3.836079222749204,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":8.0,"seat_range_display":"0, 4–10","seat_range_high":10,"seat_range_low":4,"seat_range_mode":"ZERO_SEPARATED_CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"RETROSPECTIVE_CAUSAL_RECONSTRUCTION_NOT_ORIGINALLY_ISSUED","vote_mean_pp":3.6979589767508405,"vote_q10_pp":1.5826779109721343,"vote_q2_5_pp":1.0829583276024062,"vote_q90_pp":6.427813681756494,"vote_q97_5_pp":9.11227975149501,"zero_seat_probability":0.5087},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":5.737068715614603,"contest_party_id":"HADASH_TAAL_BALAD","display_name_en":"Joint List","display_name_he":"הרשימה המשותפת","expected_seats":7.0676,"forecast_date":"2026-09-22","group_id":"ARAB_LISTS","headline_seats":8,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-22T23:59:59+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.8891,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.1109,"p_represented":0.8891,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_joint_list","raw_b5_point_pp":5.950158036023456,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":12.0,"seat_range_display":"5–12","seat_range_high":12,"seat_range_low":5,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"RETROSPECTIVE_CAUSAL_RECONSTRUCTION_NOT_ORIGINALLY_ISSUED","vote_mean_pp":5.737039337616283,"vote_q10_pp":3.1670934987477155,"vote_q2_5_pp":2.413002460837449,"vote_q90_pp":8.852559073829942,"vote_q97_5_pp":11.443415486220175,"zero_seat_probability":0.1109},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":1.0481605979409576,"contest_party_id":"BLUE_WHITE","display_name_en":"Blue and White","display_name_he":"כחול לבן","expected_seats":0.3219,"forecast_date":"2026-09-22","group_id":"UNCOMMITTED","headline_seats":0,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-22T23:59:59+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.04830000000000001,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.9517,"p_represented":0.0483,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_blue_white","raw_b5_point_pp":1.0870919478281706,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":0.0,"seat_range_display":"0","seat_range_high":null,"seat_range_low":null,"seat_range_mode":"ZERO_ONLY_RARE_REPRESENTATION","snapshot_status":"RETROSPECTIVE_CAUSAL_RECONSTRUCTION_NOT_ORIGINALLY_ISSUED","vote_mean_pp":1.048087768791924,"vote_q10_pp":0.1861171042673857,"vote_q2_5_pp":0.09548925705435478,"vote_q90_pp":2.292843530548889,"vote_q97_5_pp":4.361542360159715,"zero_seat_probability":0.9517},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":3.2249741679442003,"contest_party_id":"K26_NATIVE_LIST::RESERVISTS_AND_NEW_ECONOMIC_PARTY","display_name_en":"Reservists–Economic","display_name_he":"המילואימניקים והכלכלית","expected_seats":2.5379,"forecast_date":"2026-09-22","group_id":"UNCOMMITTED","headline_seats":0,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-22T23:59:59+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.3781,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.6219,"p_represented":0.3781,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_reservists_economic","raw_b5_point_pp":3.3447579090580133,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":8.0,"seat_range_display":"0, 4–10","seat_range_high":10,"seat_range_low":4,"seat_range_mode":"ZERO_SEPARATED_CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"RETROSPECTIVE_CAUSAL_RECONSTRUCTION_NOT_ORIGINALLY_ISSUED","vote_mean_pp":3.2251189157397473,"vote_q10_pp":1.2180083431983264,"vote_q2_5_pp":0.7932592457398259,"vote_q90_pp":5.8822622000876175,"vote_q97_5_pp":8.756945283032383,"zero_seat_probability":0.6219},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":17.11520901042183,"contest_party_id":"LIKUD","display_name_en":"Likud","display_name_he":"הליכוד","expected_seats":23.99026456250034,"forecast_date":"2026-09-22","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":24,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-22T23:59:59+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":1.0,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.0,"p_represented":0.9999999999999998,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_likud","raw_b5_point_pp":17.75091139389861,"seat_q10":19.0,"seat_q90":29.0,"seat_range_display":"19–29","seat_range_high":29,"seat_range_low":19,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"RETROSPECTIVE_CAUSAL_RECONSTRUCTION_NOT_ORIGINALLY_ISSUED","vote_mean_pp":17.793916908920114,"vote_q10_pp":14.313169167047977,"vote_q2_5_pp":12.741189499471636,"vote_q90_pp":21.42389546948013,"vote_q97_5_pp":23.45497448168965,"zero_seat_probability":0.0},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":5.468650202820907,"contest_party_id":"SHAS","display_name_en":"Shas","display_name_he":"ש״ס","expected_seats":7.4099048797309885,"forecast_date":"2026-09-22","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":8,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-22T23:59:59+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.9473770289525137,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.05262297104748625,"p_represented":0.9473770289525136,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_shas","raw_b5_point_pp":5.671769777125675,"seat_q10":5.0,"seat_q90":11.0,"seat_range_display":"5–11","seat_range_high":11,"seat_range_low":5,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"RETROSPECTIVE_CAUSAL_RECONSTRUCTION_NOT_ORIGINALLY_ISSUED","vote_mean_pp":5.877373641271163,"vote_q10_pp":3.6836872865545107,"vote_q2_5_pp":2.7202322117241113,"vote_q90_pp":8.238807687994568,"vote_q97_5_pp":10.151559199442357,"zero_seat_probability":0.05262297104748625},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":6.1258474369678,"contest_party_id":"UNITED_TORAH_JUDAISM","display_name_en":"United Torah Judaism","display_name_he":"יהדות התורה","expected_seats":7.711633517408638,"forecast_date":"2026-09-22","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":8,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-22T23:59:59+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.9736742556574995,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.026325744342500512,"p_represented":0.9736742556574994,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_utj","raw_b5_point_pp":6.353376987680519,"seat_q10":5.0,"seat_q90":11.0,"seat_range_display":"5–11","seat_range_high":11,"seat_range_low":5,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"RETROSPECTIVE_CAUSAL_RECONSTRUCTION_NOT_ORIGINALLY_ISSUED","vote_mean_pp":6.037405530934523,"vote_q10_pp":3.985008009468144,"vote_q2_5_pp":3.2046340417787245,"vote_q90_pp":8.261574561004492,"vote_q97_5_pp":10.442615717516821,"zero_seat_probability":0.026325744342500512},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":5.885829484606344,"contest_party_id":"OTZMA_YEHUDIT","display_name_en":"Otzma Yehudit","display_name_he":"עוצמה יהודית","expected_seats":7.647348908552647,"forecast_date":"2026-09-22","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":8,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-22T23:59:59+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.9683022448871978,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.0316977551128021,"p_represented":0.9683022448871978,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_otzma","raw_b5_point_pp":6.104444158246834,"seat_q10":5.0,"seat_q90":11.0,"seat_range_display":"5–11","seat_range_high":11,"seat_range_low":5,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"RETROSPECTIVE_CAUSAL_RECONSTRUCTION_NOT_ORIGINALLY_ISSUED","vote_mean_pp":5.999611767935357,"vote_q10_pp":3.931697613297156,"vote_q2_5_pp":3.0938925911256914,"vote_q90_pp":8.16673557094373,"vote_q97_5_pp":10.048972915569511,"zero_seat_probability":0.0316977551128021},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":3.953169242163494,"contest_party_id":"K26_NATIVE_LIST::RZP_AND_ZEHUT","display_name_en":"Religious Zionism–Zehut","display_name_he":"הציונות הדתית וזהות","expected_seats":4.303232604996206,"forecast_date":"2026-09-22","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":5,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-22T23:59:59+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.6540740839973279,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.3459259160026721,"p_represented":0.6540740839973278,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_religious_zionism_zehut","raw_b5_point_pp":4.1,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":9.0,"seat_range_display":"0, 4–9","seat_range_high":9,"seat_range_low":4,"seat_range_mode":"ZERO_SEPARATED_CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"RETROSPECTIVE_CAUSAL_RECONSTRUCTION_NOT_ORIGINALLY_ISSUED","vote_mean_pp":4.173714713435008,"vote_q10_pp":1.9342222224720147,"vote_q2_5_pp":1.3046700409191068,"vote_q90_pp":6.598113266118512,"vote_q97_5_pp":8.49037421578052,"zero_seat_probability":0.3459259160026721},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":3.210123190261883,"contest_party_id":"WINTER_NEW_PARTY","display_name_en":"Amcha Yisrael","display_name_he":"עמך ישראל","expected_seats":2.0062247617523097,"forecast_date":"2026-09-22","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":0,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-22T23:59:59+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.33802072285719487,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.6619792771428051,"p_represented":0.33802072285719476,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_amcha_yisrael","raw_b5_point_pp":3.3293553283012693,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":6.0,"seat_range_display":"0, 4–8","seat_range_high":8,"seat_range_low":4,"seat_range_mode":"ZERO_SEPARATED_CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"RETROSPECTIVE_CAUSAL_RECONSTRUCTION_NOT_ORIGINALLY_ISSUED","vote_mean_pp":2.9074596200976863,"vote_q10_pp":1.1824480578866328,"vote_q2_5_pp":0.7565461621673494,"vote_q90_pp":5.052776049040701,"vote_q97_5_pp":6.734718394954925,"zero_seat_probability":0.6619792771428051},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":0.528230480578496,"contest_party_id":"K26_NATIVE_LIST::HAREDI_PUBLIC","display_name_en":"Haredi Public","display_name_he":"הציבור החרדי","expected_seats":0.03370048472889294,"forecast_date":"2026-09-22","group_id":"UNCOMMITTED","headline_seats":0,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-22T23:59:59+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.004473839033473648,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.9955261609665264,"p_represented":0.004473839033473386,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_haredi_public","raw_b5_point_pp":0.547850303820173,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":0.0,"seat_range_display":"0","seat_range_high":null,"seat_range_low":null,"seat_range_mode":"ZERO_ONLY_RARE_REPRESENTATION","snapshot_status":"RETROSPECTIVE_CAUSAL_RECONSTRUCTION_NOT_ORIGINALLY_ISSUED","vote_mean_pp":0.40503078947304677,"vote_q10_pp":0.03432917383846766,"vote_q2_5_pp":0.014866112924765997,"vote_q90_pp":0.9897934483932106,"vote_q97_5_pp":2.1192391698992115,"zero_seat_probability":0.9955261609665264},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":9.94708058841424,"contest_party_id":"K26_NATIVE_LIST::BEYAHAD_BENNETT","display_name_en":"Beyachad","display_name_he":"ביחד","expected_seats":13.264195483608745,"forecast_date":"2026-09-22","group_id":"CHANGE_CORE","headline_seats":13,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-22T23:59:59+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.9999861341112453,"p_below_legal_threshold":1.3865888754718443e-05,"p_represented":0.9999861341112452,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_beyachad","raw_b5_point_pp":10.316540455065011,"seat_q10":9.0,"seat_q90":18.0,"seat_range_display":"9–18","seat_range_high":18,"seat_range_low":9,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"RETROSPECTIVE_CAUSAL_RECONSTRUCTION_NOT_ORIGINALLY_ISSUED","vote_mean_pp":10.002628260273994,"vote_q10_pp":7.203911529928432,"vote_q2_5_pp":5.972308130657227,"vote_q90_pp":13.050186668335948,"vote_q97_5_pp":15.04293229046025,"zero_seat_probability":1.3865888754718443e-05},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":17.642075801098375,"contest_party_id":"YASHAR_GADI_EISENKOT","display_name_en":"Yashar!","display_name_he":"ישר!","expected_seats":24.005044961714233,"forecast_date":"2026-09-22","group_id":"CHANGE_CORE","headline_seats":24,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-22T23:59:59+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":1.0,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.0,"p_represented":0.9999999999999998,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_yashar","raw_b5_point_pp":18.29734735690626,"seat_q10":20.0,"seat_q90":28.0,"seat_range_display":"20–28","seat_range_high":28,"seat_range_low":20,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"RETROSPECTIVE_CAUSAL_RECONSTRUCTION_NOT_ORIGINALLY_ISSUED","vote_mean_pp":17.810875262263,"vote_q10_pp":14.926254630286774,"vote_q2_5_pp":13.561621107701102,"vote_q90_pp":20.857524060586126,"vote_q97_5_pp":23.309907079838702,"zero_seat_probability":0.0},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":6.5703709052730375,"contest_party_id":"YISRAEL_BEITEINU","display_name_en":"Yisrael Beiteinu","display_name_he":"ישראל ביתנו","expected_seats":8.155695014524508,"forecast_date":"2026-09-22","group_id":"CHANGE_CORE","headline_seats":8,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-22T23:59:59+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.9866685447104746,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.013331455289525396,"p_represented":0.9866685447104744,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_yisrael_beiteinu","raw_b5_point_pp":6.814411187940062,"seat_q10":5.0,"seat_q90":11.0,"seat_range_display":"5–11","seat_range_high":11,"seat_range_low":5,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"RETROSPECTIVE_CAUSAL_RECONSTRUCTION_NOT_ORIGINALLY_ISSUED","vote_mean_pp":6.3286064221253575,"vote_q10_pp":4.274762927128949,"vote_q2_5_pp":3.510793453868368,"vote_q90_pp":8.587847511272749,"vote_q97_5_pp":10.830255599554446,"zero_seat_probability":0.013331455289525396},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":7.444510079826851,"contest_party_id":"THE_DEMOCRATS","display_name_en":"The Democrats","display_name_he":"הדמוקרטים","expected_seats":9.769345093144665,"forecast_date":"2026-09-22","group_id":"CHANGE_CORE","headline_seats":10,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-22T23:59:59+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.9976740453910077,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.002325954608992315,"p_represented":0.9976740453910076,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_democrats","raw_b5_point_pp":7.721018114212006,"seat_q10":7.0,"seat_q90":13.0,"seat_range_display":"7–13","seat_range_high":13,"seat_range_low":7,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"RETROSPECTIVE_CAUSAL_RECONSTRUCTION_NOT_ORIGINALLY_ISSUED","vote_mean_pp":7.469836838481891,"vote_q10_pp":5.254603303390283,"vote_q2_5_pp":4.327221705228294,"vote_q90_pp":9.82592791560783,"vote_q97_5_pp":12.034409237506821,"zero_seat_probability":0.002325954608992315},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":3.6987000960669754,"contest_party_id":"RAAM","display_name_en":"Raam","display_name_he":"רע״ם","expected_seats":3.324694166939574,"forecast_date":"2026-09-22","group_id":"ARAB_LISTS","headline_seats":5,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-22T23:59:59+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.5475633541158855,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.45243664588411453,"p_represented":0.5475633541158853,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_raam","raw_b5_point_pp":3.836079222749204,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":7.0,"seat_range_display":"0, 4–8","seat_range_high":8,"seat_range_low":4,"seat_range_mode":"ZERO_SEPARATED_CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"RETROSPECTIVE_CAUSAL_RECONSTRUCTION_NOT_ORIGINALLY_ISSUED","vote_mean_pp":3.6364004436702095,"vote_q10_pp":1.6610768388064985,"vote_q2_5_pp":1.1400153119452576,"vote_q90_pp":5.753276615279746,"vote_q97_5_pp":7.579936144528546,"zero_seat_probability":0.45243664588411453},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":5.737068715614603,"contest_party_id":"HADASH_TAAL_BALAD","display_name_en":"Joint List","display_name_he":"הרשימה המשותפת","expected_seats":7.341103898378918,"forecast_date":"2026-09-22","group_id":"ARAB_LISTS","headline_seats":7,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-22T23:59:59+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.9542398256364524,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.04576017436354765,"p_represented":0.9542398256364522,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_joint_list","raw_b5_point_pp":5.950158036023456,"seat_q10":5.0,"seat_q90":11.0,"seat_range_display":"5–11","seat_range_high":11,"seat_range_low":5,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"RETROSPECTIVE_CAUSAL_RECONSTRUCTION_NOT_ORIGINALLY_ISSUED","vote_mean_pp":5.808075605648218,"vote_q10_pp":3.739471205316934,"vote_q2_5_pp":2.840818719568107,"vote_q90_pp":8.10055474292952,"vote_q97_5_pp":10.207059341937907,"zero_seat_probability":0.04576017436354765},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":1.0481605979409576,"contest_party_id":"BLUE_WHITE","display_name_en":"Blue and White","display_name_he":"כחול לבן","expected_seats":0.08461590247858977,"forecast_date":"2026-09-22","group_id":"UNCOMMITTED","headline_seats":0,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-22T23:59:59+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.012674458836891445,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.9873255411631086,"p_represented":0.012674458836891254,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_blue_white","raw_b5_point_pp":1.0870919478281706,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":0.0,"seat_range_display":"0","seat_range_high":null,"seat_range_low":null,"seat_range_mode":"ZERO_ONLY_RARE_REPRESENTATION","snapshot_status":"RETROSPECTIVE_CAUSAL_RECONSTRUCTION_NOT_ORIGINALLY_ISSUED","vote_mean_pp":0.8861120363491536,"vote_q10_pp":0.18369092607803628,"vote_q2_5_pp":0.09419608273374495,"vote_q90_pp":1.9519823223298038,"vote_q97_5_pp":2.921429708463428,"zero_seat_probability":0.9873255411631086},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":3.2249741679442003,"contest_party_id":"K26_NATIVE_LIST::RESERVISTS_AND_NEW_ECONOMIC_PARTY","display_name_en":"Reservists–Economic","display_name_he":"המילואימניקים והכלכלית","expected_seats":0.9529957595407308,"forecast_date":"2026-09-22","group_id":"UNCOMMITTED","headline_seats":0,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-22T23:59:59+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.14222519587899662,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.8577748041210034,"p_represented":0.1422251958789965,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_reservists_economic","raw_b5_point_pp":3.3447579090580133,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":5.0,"seat_range_display":"0, 4–10","seat_range_high":10,"seat_range_low":4,"seat_range_mode":"ZERO_SEPARATED_CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"RETROSPECTIVE_CAUSAL_RECONSTRUCTION_NOT_ORIGINALLY_ISSUED","vote_mean_pp":2.462952159121265,"vote_q10_pp":1.112405693781831,"vote_q2_5_pp":0.7422135060804517,"vote_q90_pp":3.964385242326362,"vote_q97_5_pp":6.817998004636203,"zero_seat_probability":0.8577748041210034},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":17.645136153264417,"contest_party_id":"LIKUD","display_name_en":"Likud","display_name_he":"הליכוד","expected_seats":23.8233,"forecast_date":"2026-09-23","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":24,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-23T23:59:59+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":1.0,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.0,"p_represented":1.0,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_likud","raw_b5_point_pp":18.069503253306685,"seat_q10":19.0,"seat_q90":29.0,"seat_range_display":"19–29","seat_range_high":29,"seat_range_low":19,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"RETROSPECTIVE_CAUSAL_RECONSTRUCTION_NOT_ORIGINALLY_ISSUED","vote_mean_pp":17.64494998907269,"vote_q10_pp":14.01441426927606,"vote_q2_5_pp":12.432131307356235,"vote_q90_pp":21.534742513400083,"vote_q97_5_pp":24.00617514158489,"zero_seat_probability":0.0},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":5.766808662953518,"contest_party_id":"SHAS","display_name_en":"Shas","display_name_he":"ש״ס","expected_seats":7.15915,"forecast_date":"2026-09-23","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":8,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-23T23:59:59+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.918,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.082,"p_represented":0.918,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_shas","raw_b5_point_pp":5.905500926223103,"seat_q10":4.0,"seat_q90":11.0,"seat_range_display":"5–12","seat_range_high":12,"seat_range_low":5,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"RETROSPECTIVE_CAUSAL_RECONSTRUCTION_NOT_ORIGINALLY_ISSUED","vote_mean_pp":5.766743234022906,"vote_q10_pp":3.3933797065216065,"vote_q2_5_pp":2.638836424121732,"vote_q90_pp":8.584023062374287,"vote_q97_5_pp":10.83227844383541,"zero_seat_probability":0.082},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":5.991383022598922,"contest_party_id":"UNITED_TORAH_JUDAISM","display_name_en":"United Torah Judaism","display_name_he":"יהדות התורה","expected_seats":7.5213,"forecast_date":"2026-09-23","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":8,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-23T23:59:59+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.93205,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.06795,"p_represented":0.93205,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_utj","raw_b5_point_pp":6.135476319270504,"seat_q10":4.0,"seat_q90":12.0,"seat_range_display":"5–12","seat_range_high":12,"seat_range_low":5,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"RETROSPECTIVE_CAUSAL_RECONSTRUCTION_NOT_ORIGINALLY_ISSUED","vote_mean_pp":5.991606951191973,"vote_q10_pp":3.5090372818966125,"vote_q2_5_pp":2.729473795004482,"vote_q90_pp":8.888225472702121,"vote_q97_5_pp":11.255965705299506,"zero_seat_probability":0.06795},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":6.160345651947529,"contest_party_id":"OTZMA_YEHUDIT","display_name_en":"Otzma Yehudit","display_name_he":"עוצמה יהודית","expected_seats":7.8214,"forecast_date":"2026-09-23","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":8,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-23T23:59:59+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.95185,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.04815,"p_represented":0.95185,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_otzma","raw_b5_point_pp":6.3085025149418295,"seat_q10":5.0,"seat_q90":12.0,"seat_range_display":"5–12","seat_range_high":12,"seat_range_low":5,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"RETROSPECTIVE_CAUSAL_RECONSTRUCTION_NOT_ORIGINALLY_ISSUED","vote_mean_pp":6.160029296536562,"vote_q10_pp":3.71945927885286,"vote_q2_5_pp":2.916224172951867,"vote_q90_pp":9.082007800188682,"vote_q97_5_pp":11.299802344408283,"zero_seat_probability":0.04815},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":4.757081482111025,"contest_party_id":"K26_NATIVE_LIST::RZP_AND_ZEHUT","display_name_en":"Religious Zionism–Zehut","display_name_he":"הציונות הדתית וזהות","expected_seats":5.25025,"forecast_date":"2026-09-23","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":6,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-23T23:59:59+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.74285,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.25715,"p_represented":0.74285,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_religious_zionism_zehut","raw_b5_point_pp":4.8714897165215465,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":10.0,"seat_range_display":"4–11","seat_range_high":11,"seat_range_low":4,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"RETROSPECTIVE_CAUSAL_RECONSTRUCTION_NOT_ORIGINALLY_ISSUED","vote_mean_pp":4.756985238587711,"vote_q10_pp":2.437037232682746,"vote_q2_5_pp":1.820541659369709,"vote_q90_pp":7.5767946139612645,"vote_q97_5_pp":10.073612869779994,"zero_seat_probability":0.25715},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":3.046643817019043,"contest_party_id":"WINTER_NEW_PARTY","display_name_en":"Amcha Yisrael","display_name_he":"עמך ישראל","expected_seats":2.29275,"forecast_date":"2026-09-23","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":0,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-23T23:59:59+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.34540000000000004,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.6546,"p_represented":0.3454,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_amcha_yisrael","raw_b5_point_pp":3.119915872856985,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":7.0,"seat_range_display":"0, 4–10","seat_range_high":10,"seat_range_low":4,"seat_range_mode":"ZERO_SEPARATED_CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"RETROSPECTIVE_CAUSAL_RECONSTRUCTION_NOT_ORIGINALLY_ISSUED","vote_mean_pp":3.0467166132541768,"vote_q10_pp":1.0873357021199301,"vote_q2_5_pp":0.7009055677337046,"vote_q90_pp":5.62661299353524,"vote_q97_5_pp":8.465486246480427,"zero_seat_probability":0.6546},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":0.5907914137468838,"contest_party_id":"K26_NATIVE_LIST::HAREDI_PUBLIC","display_name_en":"Haredi Public","display_name_he":"הציבור החרדי","expected_seats":0.16415,"forecast_date":"2026-09-23","group_id":"UNCOMMITTED","headline_seats":0,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-23T23:59:59+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.023150000000000004,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.97685,"p_represented":0.02315,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_haredi_public","raw_b5_point_pp":0.6050000000000001,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":0.0,"seat_range_display":"0","seat_range_high":null,"seat_range_low":null,"seat_range_mode":"ZERO_ONLY_RARE_REPRESENTATION","snapshot_status":"RETROSPECTIVE_CAUSAL_RECONSTRUCTION_NOT_ORIGINALLY_ISSUED","vote_mean_pp":0.591039664350271,"vote_q10_pp":0.05763053631531333,"vote_q2_5_pp":0.02476062494527722,"vote_q90_pp":1.3533096346028748,"vote_q97_5_pp":3.099936062246841,"zero_seat_probability":0.97685},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":9.263944669607689,"contest_party_id":"K26_NATIVE_LIST::BEYAHAD_BENNETT","display_name_en":"Beyachad","display_name_he":"ביחד","expected_seats":12.2728,"forecast_date":"2026-09-23","group_id":"CHANGE_CORE","headline_seats":12,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-23T23:59:59+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.9999,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.0001,"p_represented":0.9999,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_beyachad","raw_b5_point_pp":9.486743366100951,"seat_q10":9.0,"seat_q90":17.0,"seat_range_display":"9–17","seat_range_high":17,"seat_range_low":9,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"RETROSPECTIVE_CAUSAL_RECONSTRUCTION_NOT_ORIGINALLY_ISSUED","vote_mean_pp":9.264047130013852,"vote_q10_pp":6.5741871231263636,"vote_q2_5_pp":5.504069538668355,"vote_q90_pp":12.278782761409035,"vote_q97_5_pp":14.350739808309298,"zero_seat_probability":0.0001},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":17.07861913125314,"contest_party_id":"YASHAR_GADI_EISENKOT","display_name_en":"Yashar!","display_name_he":"ישר!","expected_seats":23.04295,"forecast_date":"2026-09-23","group_id":"CHANGE_CORE","headline_seats":23,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-23T23:59:59+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":1.0,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.0,"p_represented":1.0,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_yashar","raw_b5_point_pp":17.489361446331028,"seat_q10":18.0,"seat_q90":28.0,"seat_range_display":"18–28","seat_range_high":28,"seat_range_low":18,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"RETROSPECTIVE_CAUSAL_RECONSTRUCTION_NOT_ORIGINALLY_ISSUED","vote_mean_pp":17.07847858352276,"vote_q10_pp":13.60300200632067,"vote_q2_5_pp":12.102988756456895,"vote_q90_pp":20.732977444350663,"vote_q97_5_pp":23.05082529806665,"zero_seat_probability":0.0},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":6.453568745279869,"contest_party_id":"YISRAEL_BEITEINU","display_name_en":"Yisrael Beiteinu","display_name_he":"ישראל ביתנו","expected_seats":8.27795,"forecast_date":"2026-09-23","group_id":"CHANGE_CORE","headline_seats":9,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-23T23:59:59+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.96585,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.03415,"p_represented":0.96585,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_yisrael_beiteinu","raw_b5_point_pp":6.608777649851068,"seat_q10":5.0,"seat_q90":12.0,"seat_range_display":"5–13","seat_range_high":13,"seat_range_low":5,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"RETROSPECTIVE_CAUSAL_RECONSTRUCTION_NOT_ORIGINALLY_ISSUED","vote_mean_pp":6.453676949064562,"vote_q10_pp":3.9305663599396023,"vote_q2_5_pp":3.0968032765129165,"vote_q90_pp":9.402431669128125,"vote_q97_5_pp":11.648620281393537,"zero_seat_probability":0.03415},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":7.372821156220982,"contest_party_id":"THE_DEMOCRATS","display_name_en":"The Democrats","display_name_he":"הדמוקרטים","expected_seats":9.63315,"forecast_date":"2026-09-23","group_id":"CHANGE_CORE","headline_seats":10,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-23T23:59:59+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.9912,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.0088,"p_represented":0.9912,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_democrats","raw_b5_point_pp":7.550138163356512,"seat_q10":6.0,"seat_q90":14.0,"seat_range_display":"6–14","seat_range_high":14,"seat_range_low":6,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"RETROSPECTIVE_CAUSAL_RECONSTRUCTION_NOT_ORIGINALLY_ISSUED","vote_mean_pp":7.372587033535255,"vote_q10_pp":4.673327341450001,"vote_q2_5_pp":3.763810943795124,"vote_q90_pp":10.430581181859825,"vote_q97_5_pp":12.826326921945379,"zero_seat_probability":0.0088},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":3.86858737551935,"contest_party_id":"RAAM","display_name_en":"Raam","display_name_he":"רע״ם","expected_seats":3.5743,"forecast_date":"2026-09-23","group_id":"ARAB_LISTS","headline_seats":5,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-23T23:59:59+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.5363,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.4637,"p_represented":0.5363,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_raam","raw_b5_point_pp":3.961627247331592,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":8.0,"seat_range_display":"0, 4–10","seat_range_high":10,"seat_range_low":4,"seat_range_mode":"ZERO_SEPARATED_CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"RETROSPECTIVE_CAUSAL_RECONSTRUCTION_NOT_ORIGINALLY_ISSUED","vote_mean_pp":3.86845653074211,"vote_q10_pp":1.7368631609156295,"vote_q2_5_pp":1.2213895586801995,"vote_q90_pp":6.552537015453677,"vote_q97_5_pp":9.153668448790969,"zero_seat_probability":0.4637},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":5.688385153199096,"contest_party_id":"HADASH_TAAL_BALAD","display_name_en":"Joint List","display_name_he":"הרשימה המשותפת","expected_seats":7.01475,"forecast_date":"2026-09-23","group_id":"ARAB_LISTS","headline_seats":7,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-23T23:59:59+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.9057999999999999,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.0942,"p_represented":0.9058,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_joint_list","raw_b5_point_pp":5.825191324056554,"seat_q10":4.0,"seat_q90":11.0,"seat_range_display":"5–12","seat_range_high":12,"seat_range_low":5,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"RETROSPECTIVE_CAUSAL_RECONSTRUCTION_NOT_ORIGINALLY_ISSUED","vote_mean_pp":5.688605414067345,"vote_q10_pp":3.297127315523398,"vote_q2_5_pp":2.511620333832509,"vote_q90_pp":8.554792422480165,"vote_q97_5_pp":10.8364020514343,"zero_seat_probability":0.0942},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":1.2957042797473473,"contest_party_id":"BLUE_WHITE","display_name_en":"Blue and White","display_name_he":"כחול לבן","expected_seats":0.43775,"forecast_date":"2026-09-23","group_id":"UNCOMMITTED","headline_seats":0,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-23T23:59:59+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.06784999999999997,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.93215,"p_represented":0.06785,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_blue_white","raw_b5_point_pp":1.3268660833703254,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":0.0,"seat_range_display":"0, 4–10","seat_range_high":10,"seat_range_low":4,"seat_range_mode":"ZERO_SEPARATED_CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"RETROSPECTIVE_CAUSAL_RECONSTRUCTION_NOT_ORIGINALLY_ISSUED","vote_mean_pp":1.2956765398802232,"vote_q10_pp":0.2875811150726419,"vote_q2_5_pp":0.1579520689989774,"vote_q90_pp":2.746303494874328,"vote_q97_5_pp":4.913583096879626,"zero_seat_probability":0.93215},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":2.6201792855311843,"contest_party_id":"K26_NATIVE_LIST::RESERVISTS_AND_NEW_ECONOMIC_PARTY","display_name_en":"Reservists–Economic","display_name_he":"המילואימניקים והכלכלית","expected_seats":1.71405,"forecast_date":"2026-09-23","group_id":"UNCOMMITTED","headline_seats":0,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-23T23:59:59+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.25849999999999995,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.7415,"p_represented":0.2585,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_reservists_economic","raw_b5_point_pp":2.683194831307292,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":6.0,"seat_range_display":"0, 4–10","seat_range_high":10,"seat_range_low":4,"seat_range_mode":"ZERO_SEPARATED_CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"RETROSPECTIVE_CAUSAL_RECONSTRUCTION_NOT_ORIGINALLY_ISSUED","vote_mean_pp":2.620400832157607,"vote_q10_pp":0.8422025276559408,"vote_q2_5_pp":0.5185444225061326,"vote_q90_pp":5.037622937570009,"vote_q97_5_pp":7.909152452398782,"zero_seat_probability":0.7415},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":17.645136153264417,"contest_party_id":"LIKUD","display_name_en":"Likud","display_name_he":"הליכוד","expected_seats":24.683208813259192,"forecast_date":"2026-09-23","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":25,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-23T23:59:59+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":1.0,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.0,"p_represented":1.0,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_likud","raw_b5_point_pp":18.069503253306685,"seat_q10":20.0,"seat_q90":30.0,"seat_range_display":"20–30","seat_range_high":30,"seat_range_low":20,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"RETROSPECTIVE_CAUSAL_RECONSTRUCTION_NOT_ORIGINALLY_ISSUED","vote_mean_pp":18.37960532347415,"vote_q10_pp":14.857093521526599,"vote_q2_5_pp":13.187434709805581,"vote_q90_pp":22.068820165824402,"vote_q97_5_pp":24.366491082883563,"zero_seat_probability":0.0},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":5.766808662953518,"contest_party_id":"SHAS","display_name_en":"Shas","display_name_he":"ש״ס","expected_seats":7.826776764281069,"forecast_date":"2026-09-23","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":8,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-23T23:59:59+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.9688411485278814,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.031158851472118654,"p_represented":0.9688411485278814,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_shas","raw_b5_point_pp":5.905500926223103,"seat_q10":5.0,"seat_q90":11.0,"seat_range_display":"5–11","seat_range_high":11,"seat_range_low":5,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"RETROSPECTIVE_CAUSAL_RECONSTRUCTION_NOT_ORIGINALLY_ISSUED","vote_mean_pp":6.154858016338402,"vote_q10_pp":3.936986130559933,"vote_q2_5_pp":3.1268110243239224,"vote_q90_pp":8.582798624542063,"vote_q97_5_pp":10.198881517697567,"zero_seat_probability":0.031158851472118654},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":5.991383022598922,"contest_party_id":"UNITED_TORAH_JUDAISM","display_name_en":"United Torah Judaism","display_name_he":"יהדות התורה","expected_seats":7.575793145709736,"forecast_date":"2026-09-23","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":8,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-23T23:59:59+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.9722482461320011,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.027751753867998847,"p_represented":0.9722482461320012,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_utj","raw_b5_point_pp":6.135476319270504,"seat_q10":5.0,"seat_q90":11.0,"seat_range_display":"5–11","seat_range_high":11,"seat_range_low":5,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"RETROSPECTIVE_CAUSAL_RECONSTRUCTION_NOT_ORIGINALLY_ISSUED","vote_mean_pp":5.967832229215857,"vote_q10_pp":3.950536215140694,"vote_q2_5_pp":3.1787261402277456,"vote_q90_pp":8.12448991999079,"vote_q97_5_pp":9.918120944936431,"zero_seat_probability":0.027751753867998847},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":6.160345651947529,"contest_party_id":"OTZMA_YEHUDIT","display_name_en":"Otzma Yehudit","display_name_he":"עוצמה יהודית","expected_seats":7.780891369986017,"forecast_date":"2026-09-23","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":8,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-23T23:59:59+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.9792490137266807,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.02075098627331931,"p_represented":0.9792490137266807,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_otzma","raw_b5_point_pp":6.3085025149418295,"seat_q10":5.0,"seat_q90":11.0,"seat_range_display":"5–11","seat_range_high":11,"seat_range_low":5,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"RETROSPECTIVE_CAUSAL_RECONSTRUCTION_NOT_ORIGINALLY_ISSUED","vote_mean_pp":6.097226060125469,"vote_q10_pp":4.09181317235497,"vote_q2_5_pp":3.3267175163094644,"vote_q90_pp":8.264723025395591,"vote_q97_5_pp":10.095211332504192,"zero_seat_probability":0.02075098627331931},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":4.757081482111025,"contest_party_id":"K26_NATIVE_LIST::RZP_AND_ZEHUT","display_name_en":"Religious Zionism–Zehut","display_name_he":"הציונות הדתית וזהות","expected_seats":5.67046752682654,"forecast_date":"2026-09-23","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":6,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-23T23:59:59+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.8401844887218661,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.15981551127813393,"p_represented":0.8401844887218661,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_religious_zionism_zehut","raw_b5_point_pp":4.8714897165215465,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":9.0,"seat_range_display":"5–9","seat_range_high":9,"seat_range_low":5,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"RETROSPECTIVE_CAUSAL_RECONSTRUCTION_NOT_ORIGINALLY_ISSUED","vote_mean_pp":4.868780455873615,"vote_q10_pp":2.78742341159071,"vote_q2_5_pp":1.99045364133804,"vote_q90_pp":7.036902765788553,"vote_q97_5_pp":8.770203050636695,"zero_seat_probability":0.15981551127813393},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":3.046643817019043,"contest_party_id":"WINTER_NEW_PARTY","display_name_en":"Amcha Yisrael","display_name_he":"עמך ישראל","expected_seats":1.682102860723949,"forecast_date":"2026-09-23","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":0,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-23T23:59:59+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.28707571320743264,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.7129242867925674,"p_represented":0.28707571320743264,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_amcha_yisrael","raw_b5_point_pp":3.119915872856985,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":6.0,"seat_range_display":"0, 4–8","seat_range_high":8,"seat_range_low":4,"seat_range_mode":"ZERO_SEPARATED_CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"RETROSPECTIVE_CAUSAL_RECONSTRUCTION_NOT_ORIGINALLY_ISSUED","vote_mean_pp":2.711570701798208,"vote_q10_pp":1.0649999367139165,"vote_q2_5_pp":0.6838131297727658,"vote_q90_pp":4.728804213843542,"vote_q97_5_pp":6.511090768557471,"zero_seat_probability":0.7129242867925674},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":0.5907914137468838,"contest_party_id":"K26_NATIVE_LIST::HAREDI_PUBLIC","display_name_en":"Haredi Public","display_name_he":"הציבור החרדי","expected_seats":0.03650916416437955,"forecast_date":"2026-09-23","group_id":"UNCOMMITTED","headline_seats":0,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-23T23:59:59+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.005150051836714686,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.9948499481632853,"p_represented":0.005150051836714794,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_haredi_public","raw_b5_point_pp":0.6050000000000001,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":0.0,"seat_range_display":"0","seat_range_high":null,"seat_range_low":null,"seat_range_mode":"ZERO_ONLY_RARE_REPRESENTATION","snapshot_status":"RETROSPECTIVE_CAUSAL_RECONSTRUCTION_NOT_ORIGINALLY_ISSUED","vote_mean_pp":0.47351006582196037,"vote_q10_pp":0.05467608880823402,"vote_q2_5_pp":0.02341977996357809,"vote_q90_pp":1.1439448500611777,"vote_q97_5_pp":2.2537992578406776,"zero_seat_probability":0.9948499481632853},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":9.263944669607689,"contest_party_id":"K26_NATIVE_LIST::BEYAHAD_BENNETT","display_name_en":"Beyachad","display_name_he":"ביחד","expected_seats":12.236995234117131,"forecast_date":"2026-09-23","group_id":"CHANGE_CORE","headline_seats":12,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-23T23:59:59+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.9999918771732434,"p_below_legal_threshold":8.122826756511259e-06,"p_represented":0.9999918771732436,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_beyachad","raw_b5_point_pp":9.486743366100951,"seat_q10":9.0,"seat_q90":16.0,"seat_range_display":"9–16","seat_range_high":16,"seat_range_low":9,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"RETROSPECTIVE_CAUSAL_RECONSTRUCTION_NOT_ORIGINALLY_ISSUED","vote_mean_pp":9.294734269139658,"vote_q10_pp":6.800171641963985,"vote_q2_5_pp":5.772460125532021,"vote_q90_pp":12.008641466282427,"vote_q97_5_pp":13.710505473249732,"zero_seat_probability":8.122826756511259e-06},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":17.07861913125314,"contest_party_id":"YASHAR_GADI_EISENKOT","display_name_en":"Yashar!","display_name_he":"ישר!","expected_seats":23.204262623142252,"forecast_date":"2026-09-23","group_id":"CHANGE_CORE","headline_seats":23,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-23T23:59:59+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":1.0,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.0,"p_represented":1.0,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_yashar","raw_b5_point_pp":17.489361446331028,"seat_q10":19.0,"seat_q90":27.0,"seat_range_display":"19–27","seat_range_high":27,"seat_range_low":19,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"RETROSPECTIVE_CAUSAL_RECONSTRUCTION_NOT_ORIGINALLY_ISSUED","vote_mean_pp":17.307459258631802,"vote_q10_pp":14.551830870396502,"vote_q2_5_pp":13.226385517121352,"vote_q90_pp":20.235983770358157,"vote_q97_5_pp":22.206359287427787,"zero_seat_probability":0.0},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":6.453568745279869,"contest_party_id":"YISRAEL_BEITEINU","display_name_en":"Yisrael Beiteinu","display_name_he":"ישראל ביתנו","expected_seats":8.0606990110883,"forecast_date":"2026-09-23","group_id":"CHANGE_CORE","headline_seats":8,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-23T23:59:59+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.9883382065670481,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.011661793432951968,"p_represented":0.9883382065670481,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_yisrael_beiteinu","raw_b5_point_pp":6.608777649851068,"seat_q10":5.0,"seat_q90":11.0,"seat_range_display":"5–11","seat_range_high":11,"seat_range_low":5,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"RETROSPECTIVE_CAUSAL_RECONSTRUCTION_NOT_ORIGINALLY_ISSUED","vote_mean_pp":6.276610519733483,"vote_q10_pp":4.274716802054513,"vote_q2_5_pp":3.5124268538096355,"vote_q90_pp":8.483608291719989,"vote_q97_5_pp":10.333437344757549,"zero_seat_probability":0.011661793432951968},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":7.372821156220982,"contest_party_id":"THE_DEMOCRATS","display_name_en":"The Democrats","display_name_he":"הדמוקרטים","expected_seats":9.546177862296448,"forecast_date":"2026-09-23","group_id":"CHANGE_CORE","headline_seats":10,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-23T23:59:59+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.9980136317233923,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.0019863682766077338,"p_represented":0.9980136317233923,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_democrats","raw_b5_point_pp":7.550138163356512,"seat_q10":7.0,"seat_q90":13.0,"seat_range_display":"7–13","seat_range_high":13,"seat_range_low":7,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"RETROSPECTIVE_CAUSAL_RECONSTRUCTION_NOT_ORIGINALLY_ISSUED","vote_mean_pp":7.337081599962581,"vote_q10_pp":5.19783661985834,"vote_q2_5_pp":4.355460332857807,"vote_q90_pp":9.64285150721498,"vote_q97_5_pp":11.525443634187608,"zero_seat_probability":0.0019863682766077338},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":3.86858737551935,"contest_party_id":"RAAM","display_name_en":"Raam","display_name_he":"רע״ם","expected_seats":3.4501566830782844,"forecast_date":"2026-09-23","group_id":"ARAB_LISTS","headline_seats":5,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-23T23:59:59+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.5756252576892618,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.4243747423107382,"p_represented":0.575625257689262,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_raam","raw_b5_point_pp":3.961627247331592,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":7.0,"seat_range_display":"0, 4–8","seat_range_high":8,"seat_range_low":4,"seat_range_mode":"ZERO_SEPARATED_CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"RETROSPECTIVE_CAUSAL_RECONSTRUCTION_NOT_ORIGINALLY_ISSUED","vote_mean_pp":3.7306282247645153,"vote_q10_pp":1.8080940432084627,"vote_q2_5_pp":1.2613706816366537,"vote_q90_pp":5.826067622408147,"vote_q97_5_pp":7.479061361405602,"zero_seat_probability":0.4243747423107382},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":5.688385153199096,"contest_party_id":"HADASH_TAAL_BALAD","display_name_en":"Joint List","display_name_he":"הרשימה המשותפת","expected_seats":7.145450185024228,"forecast_date":"2026-09-23","group_id":"ARAB_LISTS","headline_seats":7,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-23T23:59:59+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.9558959024013649,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.044104097598635074,"p_represented":0.9558959024013649,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_joint_list","raw_b5_point_pp":5.825191324056554,"seat_q10":5.0,"seat_q90":10.0,"seat_range_display":"5–10","seat_range_high":10,"seat_range_low":5,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"RETROSPECTIVE_CAUSAL_RECONSTRUCTION_NOT_ORIGINALLY_ISSUED","vote_mean_pp":5.693521014812312,"vote_q10_pp":3.726502989442227,"vote_q2_5_pp":2.9102541102659254,"vote_q90_pp":7.807750646344966,"vote_q97_5_pp":9.53509145654109,"zero_seat_probability":0.044104097598635074},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":1.2957042797473473,"contest_party_id":"BLUE_WHITE","display_name_en":"Blue and White","display_name_he":"כחול לבן","expected_seats":0.10803636171855963,"forecast_date":"2026-09-23","group_id":"UNCOMMITTED","headline_seats":0,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-23T23:59:59+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.01736137039579211,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.9826386296042079,"p_represented":0.01736137039579219,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_blue_white","raw_b5_point_pp":1.3268660833703254,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":0.0,"seat_range_display":"0","seat_range_high":null,"seat_range_low":null,"seat_range_mode":"ZERO_ONLY_RARE_REPRESENTATION","snapshot_status":"RETROSPECTIVE_CAUSAL_RECONSTRUCTION_NOT_ORIGINALLY_ISSUED","vote_mean_pp":1.0830115916902026,"vote_q10_pp":0.27720443937201206,"vote_q2_5_pp":0.15349959395442028,"vote_q90_pp":2.227919893314534,"vote_q97_5_pp":3.1185274413946655,"zero_seat_probability":0.9826386296042079},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":2.6201792855311843,"contest_party_id":"K26_NATIVE_LIST::RESERVISTS_AND_NEW_ECONOMIC_PARTY","display_name_en":"Reservists–Economic","display_name_he":"המילואימניקים והכלכלית","expected_seats":0.9924723945839178,"forecast_date":"2026-09-23","group_id":"UNCOMMITTED","headline_seats":0,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-23T23:59:59+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.17160163281408547,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.8283983671859145,"p_represented":0.17160163281408553,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_reservists_economic","raw_b5_point_pp":2.683194831307292,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":5.0,"seat_range_display":"0, 4–8","seat_range_high":8,"seat_range_low":4,"seat_range_mode":"ZERO_SEPARATED_CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"RETROSPECTIVE_CAUSAL_RECONSTRUCTION_NOT_ORIGINALLY_ISSUED","vote_mean_pp":2.223570668617789,"vote_q10_pp":0.8180511143784451,"vote_q2_5_pp":0.510917195089085,"vote_q90_pp":3.959679432030206,"vote_q97_5_pp":5.733983740797472,"zero_seat_probability":0.8283983671859145},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":17.615625642159905,"contest_party_id":"LIKUD","display_name_en":"Likud","display_name_he":"הליכוד","expected_seats":23.7057,"forecast_date":"2026-09-24","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":24,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-24T23:59:59+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":1.0,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.0,"p_represented":1.0,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_likud","raw_b5_point_pp":17.964956985287312,"seat_q10":19.0,"seat_q90":29.0,"seat_range_display":"19–29","seat_range_high":29,"seat_range_low":19,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"RETROSPECTIVE_CAUSAL_RECONSTRUCTION_NOT_ORIGINALLY_ISSUED","vote_mean_pp":17.61555394048842,"vote_q10_pp":14.37342221592503,"vote_q2_5_pp":12.866333231985157,"vote_q90_pp":21.093698184285312,"vote_q97_5_pp":23.274056541306663,"zero_seat_probability":0.0},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":5.782428612040024,"contest_party_id":"SHAS","display_name_en":"Shas","display_name_he":"ש״ס","expected_seats":7.189,"forecast_date":"2026-09-24","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":8,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-24T23:59:59+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.92765,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.07235,"p_represented":0.92765,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_shas","raw_b5_point_pp":5.897098598483641,"seat_q10":4.0,"seat_q90":11.0,"seat_range_display":"5–11","seat_range_high":11,"seat_range_low":5,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"RETROSPECTIVE_CAUSAL_RECONSTRUCTION_NOT_ORIGINALLY_ISSUED","vote_mean_pp":5.782436564802003,"vote_q10_pp":3.4534631577191433,"vote_q2_5_pp":2.6783120249842263,"vote_q90_pp":8.506562022894176,"vote_q97_5_pp":10.77149442820573,"zero_seat_probability":0.07235},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":6.054712092517062,"contest_party_id":"UNITED_TORAH_JUDAISM","display_name_en":"United Torah Judaism","display_name_he":"יהדות התורה","expected_seats":7.62585,"forecast_date":"2026-09-24","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":8,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-24T23:59:59+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.9456,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.0544,"p_represented":0.9456,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_utj","raw_b5_point_pp":6.174781668840631,"seat_q10":4.0,"seat_q90":12.0,"seat_range_display":"5–12","seat_range_high":12,"seat_range_low":5,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"RETROSPECTIVE_CAUSAL_RECONSTRUCTION_NOT_ORIGINALLY_ISSUED","vote_mean_pp":6.054559627942757,"vote_q10_pp":3.6626705085355127,"vote_q2_5_pp":2.859755573206994,"vote_q90_pp":8.859275317841353,"vote_q97_5_pp":11.005233985614938,"zero_seat_probability":0.0544},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":6.03986349594349,"contest_party_id":"OTZMA_YEHUDIT","display_name_en":"Otzma Yehudit","display_name_he":"עוצמה יהודית","expected_seats":7.6547,"forecast_date":"2026-09-24","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":8,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-24T23:59:59+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.96005,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.03995,"p_represented":0.96005,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_otzma","raw_b5_point_pp":6.159638613228819,"seat_q10":5.0,"seat_q90":11.0,"seat_range_display":"5–12","seat_range_high":12,"seat_range_low":5,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"RETROSPECTIVE_CAUSAL_RECONSTRUCTION_NOT_ORIGINALLY_ISSUED","vote_mean_pp":6.03994400195642,"vote_q10_pp":3.7763390295494297,"vote_q2_5_pp":3.0333585967972874,"vote_q90_pp":8.67731281477402,"vote_q97_5_pp":10.648284437466607,"zero_seat_probability":0.03995},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":4.63853685792002,"contest_party_id":"K26_NATIVE_LIST::RZP_AND_ZEHUT","display_name_en":"Religious Zionism–Zehut","display_name_he":"הציונות הדתית וזהות","expected_seats":5.07505,"forecast_date":"2026-09-24","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":6,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-24T23:59:59+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.75175,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.24825,"p_represented":0.75175,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_religious_zionism_zehut","raw_b5_point_pp":4.730522595108092,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":9.0,"seat_range_display":"4–10","seat_range_high":10,"seat_range_low":4,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"RETROSPECTIVE_CAUSAL_RECONSTRUCTION_NOT_ORIGINALLY_ISSUED","vote_mean_pp":4.638377332495556,"vote_q10_pp":2.5457929856364245,"vote_q2_5_pp":1.93068105444319,"vote_q90_pp":7.1456113770237595,"vote_q97_5_pp":9.286170580218878,"zero_seat_probability":0.24825},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":3.0796843385801647,"contest_party_id":"WINTER_NEW_PARTY","display_name_en":"Amcha Yisrael","display_name_he":"עמך ישראל","expected_seats":2.27375,"forecast_date":"2026-09-24","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":0,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-24T23:59:59+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.35750000000000004,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.6425,"p_represented":0.3575,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_amcha_yisrael","raw_b5_point_pp":3.1407568368415855,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":7.0,"seat_range_display":"0, 4–10","seat_range_high":10,"seat_range_low":4,"seat_range_mode":"ZERO_SEPARATED_CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"RETROSPECTIVE_CAUSAL_RECONSTRUCTION_NOT_ORIGINALLY_ISSUED","vote_mean_pp":3.0796584899425765,"vote_q10_pp":1.2161570177610117,"vote_q2_5_pp":0.8125950717621726,"vote_q90_pp":5.477511673058986,"vote_q97_5_pp":7.985038573969214,"zero_seat_probability":0.6425},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":0.49493138878164217,"contest_party_id":"K26_NATIVE_LIST::HAREDI_PUBLIC","display_name_en":"Haredi Public","display_name_he":"הציבור החרדי","expected_seats":0.1288,"forecast_date":"2026-09-24","group_id":"UNCOMMITTED","headline_seats":0,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-24T23:59:59+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.01815,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.98185,"p_represented":0.01815,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_haredi_public","raw_b5_point_pp":0.5047462571440358,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":0.0,"seat_range_display":"0","seat_range_high":null,"seat_range_low":null,"seat_range_mode":"ZERO_ONLY_RARE_REPRESENTATION","snapshot_status":"RETROSPECTIVE_CAUSAL_RECONSTRUCTION_NOT_ORIGINALLY_ISSUED","vote_mean_pp":0.49498817456784017,"vote_q10_pp":0.03968773152216694,"vote_q2_5_pp":0.015910173508347857,"vote_q90_pp":1.1387850644750717,"vote_q97_5_pp":2.7763958976973346,"zero_seat_probability":0.98185},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":9.358254080467521,"contest_party_id":"K26_NATIVE_LIST::BEYAHAD_BENNETT","display_name_en":"Beyachad","display_name_he":"ביחד","expected_seats":12.36005,"forecast_date":"2026-09-24","group_id":"CHANGE_CORE","headline_seats":12,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-24T23:59:59+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.99995,"p_below_legal_threshold":5e-05,"p_represented":0.99995,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_beyachad","raw_b5_point_pp":9.54383542362647,"seat_q10":8.0,"seat_q90":17.0,"seat_range_display":"8–17","seat_range_high":17,"seat_range_low":8,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"RETROSPECTIVE_CAUSAL_RECONSTRUCTION_NOT_ORIGINALLY_ISSUED","vote_mean_pp":9.358237894421313,"vote_q10_pp":6.579008125332359,"vote_q2_5_pp":5.551043506176279,"vote_q90_pp":12.461871424729436,"vote_q97_5_pp":14.526203759204822,"zero_seat_probability":5e-05},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":17.227415926481218,"contest_party_id":"YASHAR_GADI_EISENKOT","display_name_en":"Yashar!","display_name_he":"ישר!","expected_seats":23.17085,"forecast_date":"2026-09-24","group_id":"CHANGE_CORE","headline_seats":23,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-24T23:59:59+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":1.0,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.0,"p_represented":1.0,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_yashar","raw_b5_point_pp":17.569048773730707,"seat_q10":18.0,"seat_q90":28.0,"seat_range_display":"18–28","seat_range_high":28,"seat_range_low":18,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"RETROSPECTIVE_CAUSAL_RECONSTRUCTION_NOT_ORIGINALLY_ISSUED","vote_mean_pp":17.227564798294242,"vote_q10_pp":13.863985396611175,"vote_q2_5_pp":12.36311972769291,"vote_q90_pp":20.79951786398637,"vote_q97_5_pp":22.932304337271866,"zero_seat_probability":0.0},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":6.529953589416638,"contest_party_id":"YISRAEL_BEITEINU","display_name_en":"Yisrael Beiteinu","display_name_he":"ישראל ביתנו","expected_seats":8.3805,"forecast_date":"2026-09-24","group_id":"CHANGE_CORE","headline_seats":9,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-24T23:59:59+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.97545,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.02455,"p_represented":0.97545,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_yisrael_beiteinu","raw_b5_point_pp":6.659447568471864,"seat_q10":5.0,"seat_q90":12.0,"seat_range_display":"5–12","seat_range_high":12,"seat_range_low":5,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"RETROSPECTIVE_CAUSAL_RECONSTRUCTION_NOT_ORIGINALLY_ISSUED","vote_mean_pp":6.529761965374456,"vote_q10_pp":4.0829128952552765,"vote_q2_5_pp":3.261580710831923,"vote_q90_pp":9.352937970919164,"vote_q97_5_pp":11.59648156701732,"zero_seat_probability":0.02455},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":7.388467137988766,"contest_party_id":"THE_DEMOCRATS","display_name_en":"The Democrats","display_name_he":"הדמוקרטים","expected_seats":9.64215,"forecast_date":"2026-09-24","group_id":"CHANGE_CORE","headline_seats":10,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-24T23:59:59+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.99655,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.00345,"p_represented":0.99655,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_democrats","raw_b5_point_pp":7.534986097996017,"seat_q10":6.0,"seat_q90":14.0,"seat_range_display":"6–14","seat_range_high":14,"seat_range_low":6,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"RETROSPECTIVE_CAUSAL_RECONSTRUCTION_NOT_ORIGINALLY_ISSUED","vote_mean_pp":7.3883666119876725,"vote_q10_pp":4.903348127640254,"vote_q2_5_pp":4.015923545416146,"vote_q90_pp":10.1910252676886,"vote_q97_5_pp":12.36311543655666,"zero_seat_probability":0.00345},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":3.8984902458460033,"contest_party_id":"RAAM","display_name_en":"Raam","display_name_he":"רע״ם","expected_seats":3.62065,"forecast_date":"2026-09-24","group_id":"ARAB_LISTS","headline_seats":5,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-24T23:59:59+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.5575,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.4425,"p_represented":0.5575,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_raam","raw_b5_point_pp":3.975800292131904,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":8.0,"seat_range_display":"0, 4–10","seat_range_high":10,"seat_range_low":4,"seat_range_mode":"ZERO_SEPARATED_CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"RETROSPECTIVE_CAUSAL_RECONSTRUCTION_NOT_ORIGINALLY_ISSUED","vote_mean_pp":3.898405141947624,"vote_q10_pp":1.8578062975669356,"vote_q2_5_pp":1.3215005051555957,"vote_q90_pp":6.446910495763575,"vote_q97_5_pp":8.862110201135337,"zero_seat_probability":0.4425},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":5.6960780605369985,"contest_party_id":"HADASH_TAAL_BALAD","display_name_en":"Joint List","display_name_he":"הרשימה המשותפת","expected_seats":7.0515,"forecast_date":"2026-09-24","group_id":"ARAB_LISTS","headline_seats":7,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-24T23:59:59+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.92115,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.07885,"p_represented":0.92115,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_joint_list","raw_b5_point_pp":5.809035649433738,"seat_q10":4.0,"seat_q90":11.0,"seat_range_display":"5–11","seat_range_high":11,"seat_range_low":5,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"RETROSPECTIVE_CAUSAL_RECONSTRUCTION_NOT_ORIGINALLY_ISSUED","vote_mean_pp":5.6963530164859035,"vote_q10_pp":3.392109882194678,"vote_q2_5_pp":2.6725617793439764,"vote_q90_pp":8.430325085582933,"vote_q97_5_pp":10.551347904250825,"zero_seat_probability":0.07885},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":1.0748477472245794,"contest_party_id":"BLUE_WHITE","display_name_en":"Blue and White","display_name_he":"כחול לבן","expected_seats":0.2833,"forecast_date":"2026-09-24","group_id":"UNCOMMITTED","headline_seats":0,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-24T23:59:59+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.045849999999999946,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.95415,"p_represented":0.04585,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_blue_white","raw_b5_point_pp":1.0961628009628237,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":0.0,"seat_range_display":"0","seat_range_high":null,"seat_range_low":null,"seat_range_mode":"ZERO_ONLY_RARE_REPRESENTATION","snapshot_status":"RETROSPECTIVE_CAUSAL_RECONSTRUCTION_NOT_ORIGINALLY_ISSUED","vote_mean_pp":1.0749660776264804,"vote_q10_pp":0.23003166677599918,"vote_q2_5_pp":0.11897105680879592,"vote_q90_pp":2.278245904015124,"vote_q97_5_pp":4.003803610729252,"zero_seat_probability":0.95415},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":2.7207107840959646,"contest_party_id":"K26_NATIVE_LIST::RESERVISTS_AND_NEW_ECONOMIC_PARTY","display_name_en":"Reservists–Economic","display_name_he":"המילואימניקים והכלכלית","expected_seats":1.83815,"forecast_date":"2026-09-24","group_id":"UNCOMMITTED","headline_seats":0,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-24T23:59:59+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.27985000000000004,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.72015,"p_represented":0.27985,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_reservists_economic","raw_b5_point_pp":2.7746645619393573,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":7.0,"seat_range_display":"0, 4–10","seat_range_high":10,"seat_range_low":4,"seat_range_mode":"ZERO_SEPARATED_CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"RETROSPECTIVE_CAUSAL_RECONSTRUCTION_NOT_ORIGINALLY_ISSUED","vote_mean_pp":2.7208263616667328,"vote_q10_pp":0.8969738968440516,"vote_q2_5_pp":0.5603803532056127,"vote_q90_pp":5.1665270668169505,"vote_q97_5_pp":8.122879183242006,"zero_seat_probability":0.72015},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":17.615625642159905,"contest_party_id":"LIKUD","display_name_en":"Likud","display_name_he":"הליכוד","expected_seats":24.256567842676766,"forecast_date":"2026-09-24","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":24,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-24T23:59:59+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":1.0,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.0,"p_represented":1.0,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_likud","raw_b5_point_pp":17.964956985287312,"seat_q10":20.0,"seat_q90":29.0,"seat_range_display":"20–29","seat_range_high":29,"seat_range_low":20,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"RETROSPECTIVE_CAUSAL_RECONSTRUCTION_NOT_ORIGINALLY_ISSUED","vote_mean_pp":18.12561969693678,"vote_q10_pp":14.982158911246579,"vote_q2_5_pp":13.514871922834596,"vote_q90_pp":21.40897636937501,"vote_q97_5_pp":23.468332060022007,"zero_seat_probability":0.0},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":5.782428612040024,"contest_party_id":"SHAS","display_name_en":"Shas","display_name_he":"ש״ס","expected_seats":7.698757958716122,"forecast_date":"2026-09-24","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":8,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-24T23:59:59+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.9731706731172272,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.026829326882772855,"p_represented":0.9731706731172273,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_shas","raw_b5_point_pp":5.897098598483641,"seat_q10":5.0,"seat_q90":11.0,"seat_range_display":"5–11","seat_range_high":11,"seat_range_low":5,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"RETROSPECTIVE_CAUSAL_RECONSTRUCTION_NOT_ORIGINALLY_ISSUED","vote_mean_pp":6.067644319533702,"vote_q10_pp":4.0053153698419175,"vote_q2_5_pp":3.201498899045841,"vote_q90_pp":8.34466144963511,"vote_q97_5_pp":9.951418836066019,"zero_seat_probability":0.026829326882772855},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":6.054712092517062,"contest_party_id":"UNITED_TORAH_JUDAISM","display_name_en":"United Torah Judaism","display_name_he":"יהדות התורה","expected_seats":7.6219000847819265,"forecast_date":"2026-09-24","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":8,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-24T23:59:59+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.9775522876596435,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.022447712340356453,"p_represented":0.9775522876596436,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_utj","raw_b5_point_pp":6.174781668840631,"seat_q10":5.0,"seat_q90":11.0,"seat_range_display":"5–11","seat_range_high":11,"seat_range_low":5,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"RETROSPECTIVE_CAUSAL_RECONSTRUCTION_NOT_ORIGINALLY_ISSUED","vote_mean_pp":6.003487613811307,"vote_q10_pp":4.038601869601853,"vote_q2_5_pp":3.298300432240505,"vote_q90_pp":8.134053495334147,"vote_q97_5_pp":9.859732914005667,"zero_seat_probability":0.022447712340356453},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":6.03986349594349,"contest_party_id":"OTZMA_YEHUDIT","display_name_en":"Otzma Yehudit","display_name_he":"עוצמה יהודית","expected_seats":7.725827699841961,"forecast_date":"2026-09-24","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":8,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-24T23:59:59+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.9851172114696928,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.014882788530307247,"p_represented":0.9851172114696928,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_otzma","raw_b5_point_pp":6.159638613228819,"seat_q10":5.0,"seat_q90":11.0,"seat_range_display":"5–11","seat_range_high":11,"seat_range_low":5,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"RETROSPECTIVE_CAUSAL_RECONSTRUCTION_NOT_ORIGINALLY_ISSUED","vote_mean_pp":6.059653199217706,"vote_q10_pp":4.166970087051326,"vote_q2_5_pp":3.4384441200795446,"vote_q90_pp":8.087995769098807,"vote_q97_5_pp":9.585356048319454,"zero_seat_probability":0.014882788530307247},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":4.63853685792002,"contest_party_id":"K26_NATIVE_LIST::RZP_AND_ZEHUT","display_name_en":"Religious Zionism–Zehut","display_name_he":"הציונות הדתית וזהות","expected_seats":5.4093455163851845,"forecast_date":"2026-09-24","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":6,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-24T23:59:59+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.833446794989166,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.16655320501083404,"p_represented":0.833446794989166,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_religious_zionism_zehut","raw_b5_point_pp":4.730522595108092,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":9.0,"seat_range_display":"4–9","seat_range_high":9,"seat_range_low":4,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"RETROSPECTIVE_CAUSAL_RECONSTRUCTION_NOT_ORIGINALLY_ISSUED","vote_mean_pp":4.7174761583872,"vote_q10_pp":2.805682881123824,"vote_q2_5_pp":2.088810478211618,"vote_q90_pp":6.705726118678602,"vote_q97_5_pp":8.227334492761427,"zero_seat_probability":0.16655320501083404},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":3.0796843385801647,"contest_party_id":"WINTER_NEW_PARTY","display_name_en":"Amcha Yisrael","display_name_he":"עמך ישראל","expected_seats":1.788673729157661,"forecast_date":"2026-09-24","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":0,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-24T23:59:59+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.31593634471636345,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.6840636552836366,"p_represented":0.31593634471636356,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_amcha_yisrael","raw_b5_point_pp":3.1407568368415855,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":6.0,"seat_range_display":"0, 4–8","seat_range_high":8,"seat_range_low":4,"seat_range_mode":"ZERO_SEPARATED_CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"RETROSPECTIVE_CAUSAL_RECONSTRUCTION_NOT_ORIGINALLY_ISSUED","vote_mean_pp":2.802039733247679,"vote_q10_pp":1.1792334030959355,"vote_q2_5_pp":0.7963662517942742,"vote_q90_pp":4.777368991660795,"vote_q97_5_pp":6.369552375667566,"zero_seat_probability":0.6840636552836366},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":0.49493138878164217,"contest_party_id":"K26_NATIVE_LIST::HAREDI_PUBLIC","display_name_en":"Haredi Public","display_name_he":"הציבור החרדי","expected_seats":0.0266802320416602,"forecast_date":"2026-09-24","group_id":"UNCOMMITTED","headline_seats":0,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-24T23:59:59+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.003834776725738842,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.9961652232742612,"p_represented":0.0038347767257389115,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_haredi_public","raw_b5_point_pp":0.5047462571440358,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":0.0,"seat_range_display":"0","seat_range_high":null,"seat_range_low":null,"seat_range_mode":"ZERO_ONLY_RARE_REPRESENTATION","snapshot_status":"RETROSPECTIVE_CAUSAL_RECONSTRUCTION_NOT_ORIGINALLY_ISSUED","vote_mean_pp":0.4009788951000001,"vote_q10_pp":0.038995553286716285,"vote_q2_5_pp":0.015664508419877737,"vote_q90_pp":0.9662334948846699,"vote_q97_5_pp":2.0046682941207243,"zero_seat_probability":0.9961652232742612},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":9.358254080467521,"contest_party_id":"K26_NATIVE_LIST::BEYAHAD_BENNETT","display_name_en":"Beyachad","display_name_he":"ביחד","expected_seats":12.308672109190034,"forecast_date":"2026-09-24","group_id":"CHANGE_CORE","headline_seats":12,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-24T23:59:59+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.9999886635918417,"p_below_legal_threshold":1.1336408158347242e-05,"p_represented":0.9999886635918418,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_beyachad","raw_b5_point_pp":9.54383542362647,"seat_q10":9.0,"seat_q90":16.0,"seat_range_display":"9–16","seat_range_high":16,"seat_range_low":9,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"RETROSPECTIVE_CAUSAL_RECONSTRUCTION_NOT_ORIGINALLY_ISSUED","vote_mean_pp":9.379537516788567,"vote_q10_pp":6.8356268325839835,"vote_q2_5_pp":5.79999995114511,"vote_q90_pp":12.133470843244146,"vote_q97_5_pp":13.891390772124387,"zero_seat_probability":1.1336408158347242e-05},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":17.227415926481218,"contest_party_id":"YASHAR_GADI_EISENKOT","display_name_en":"Yashar!","display_name_he":"ישר!","expected_seats":23.296805361466284,"forecast_date":"2026-09-24","group_id":"CHANGE_CORE","headline_seats":24,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-24T23:59:59+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":1.0,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.0,"p_represented":1.0,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_yashar","raw_b5_point_pp":17.569048773730707,"seat_q10":20.0,"seat_q90":27.0,"seat_range_display":"20–27","seat_range_high":27,"seat_range_low":20,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"RETROSPECTIVE_CAUSAL_RECONSTRUCTION_NOT_ORIGINALLY_ISSUED","vote_mean_pp":17.42565820910795,"vote_q10_pp":14.717505955700991,"vote_q2_5_pp":13.462002266432572,"vote_q90_pp":20.27411623548956,"vote_q97_5_pp":22.042436685355348,"zero_seat_probability":0.0},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":6.529953589416638,"contest_party_id":"YISRAEL_BEITEINU","display_name_en":"Yisrael Beiteinu","display_name_he":"ישראל ביתנו","expected_seats":8.169927133533523,"forecast_date":"2026-09-24","group_id":"CHANGE_CORE","headline_seats":8,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-24T23:59:59+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.9913462597146637,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.008653740285336296,"p_represented":0.9913462597146638,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_yisrael_beiteinu","raw_b5_point_pp":6.659447568471864,"seat_q10":5.0,"seat_q90":11.0,"seat_range_display":"6–11","seat_range_high":11,"seat_range_low":6,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"RETROSPECTIVE_CAUSAL_RECONSTRUCTION_NOT_ORIGINALLY_ISSUED","vote_mean_pp":6.374867443696795,"vote_q10_pp":4.375687090070919,"vote_q2_5_pp":3.6551601146644153,"vote_q90_pp":8.518568493409303,"vote_q97_5_pp":10.324557451764754,"zero_seat_probability":0.008653740285336296},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":7.388467137988766,"contest_party_id":"THE_DEMOCRATS","display_name_en":"The Democrats","display_name_he":"הדמוקרטים","expected_seats":9.601845709526375,"forecast_date":"2026-09-24","group_id":"CHANGE_CORE","headline_seats":10,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-24T23:59:59+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.9992737844300776,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.0007262155699223243,"p_represented":0.9992737844300777,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_democrats","raw_b5_point_pp":7.534986097996017,"seat_q10":7.0,"seat_q90":13.0,"seat_range_display":"7–13","seat_range_high":13,"seat_range_low":7,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"RETROSPECTIVE_CAUSAL_RECONSTRUCTION_NOT_ORIGINALLY_ISSUED","vote_mean_pp":7.397441991226402,"vote_q10_pp":5.3718014102262135,"vote_q2_5_pp":4.512201067863548,"vote_q90_pp":9.573756702077183,"vote_q97_5_pp":11.186312031674651,"zero_seat_probability":0.0007262155699223243},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":3.8984902458460033,"contest_party_id":"RAAM","display_name_en":"Raam","display_name_he":"רע״ם","expected_seats":3.593386029548453,"forecast_date":"2026-09-24","group_id":"ARAB_LISTS","headline_seats":5,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-24T23:59:59+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.6038893918504535,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.3961106081495464,"p_represented":0.6038893918504536,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_raam","raw_b5_point_pp":3.975800292131904,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":7.0,"seat_range_display":"0, 4–8","seat_range_high":8,"seat_range_low":4,"seat_range_mode":"ZERO_SEPARATED_CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"RETROSPECTIVE_CAUSAL_RECONSTRUCTION_NOT_ORIGINALLY_ISSUED","vote_mean_pp":3.813275384841204,"vote_q10_pp":1.9444746002519826,"vote_q2_5_pp":1.3961018387459363,"vote_q90_pp":5.838002409887236,"vote_q97_5_pp":7.355991074077936,"zero_seat_probability":0.3961106081495464},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":5.6960780605369985,"contest_party_id":"HADASH_TAAL_BALAD","display_name_en":"Joint List","display_name_he":"הרשימה המשותפת","expected_seats":7.203903083363604,"forecast_date":"2026-09-24","group_id":"ARAB_LISTS","headline_seats":7,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-24T23:59:59+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.9659619375069092,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.03403806249309087,"p_represented":0.9659619375069092,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_joint_list","raw_b5_point_pp":5.809035649433738,"seat_q10":5.0,"seat_q90":10.0,"seat_range_display":"5–10","seat_range_high":10,"seat_range_low":5,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"RETROSPECTIVE_CAUSAL_RECONSTRUCTION_NOT_ORIGINALLY_ISSUED","vote_mean_pp":5.7245077075429105,"vote_q10_pp":3.825041772711071,"vote_q2_5_pp":3.0778187101450145,"vote_q90_pp":7.799170918632991,"vote_q97_5_pp":9.324393908937735,"zero_seat_probability":0.03403806249309087},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":1.0748477472245794,"contest_party_id":"BLUE_WHITE","display_name_en":"Blue and White","display_name_he":"כחול לבן","expected_seats":0.07307073072627396,"forecast_date":"2026-09-24","group_id":"UNCOMMITTED","headline_seats":0,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-24T23:59:59+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.011822965742533942,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.9881770342574661,"p_represented":0.011822965742533935,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_blue_white","raw_b5_point_pp":1.0961628009628237,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":0.0,"seat_range_display":"0","seat_range_high":null,"seat_range_low":null,"seat_range_mode":"ZERO_ONLY_RARE_REPRESENTATION","snapshot_status":"RETROSPECTIVE_CAUSAL_RECONSTRUCTION_NOT_ORIGINALLY_ISSUED","vote_mean_pp":0.9352958020575968,"vote_q10_pp":0.22309906296634804,"vote_q2_5_pp":0.11791286601552475,"vote_q90_pp":1.9652117567465288,"vote_q97_5_pp":2.9209279780687742,"zero_seat_probability":0.9881770342574661},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":2.7207107840959646,"contest_party_id":"K26_NATIVE_LIST::RESERVISTS_AND_NEW_ECONOMIC_PARTY","display_name_en":"Reservists–Economic","display_name_he":"המילואימניקים והכלכלית","expected_seats":1.2246367790441783,"forecast_date":"2026-09-24","group_id":"UNCOMMITTED","headline_seats":0,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-24T23:59:59+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.21371298496394908,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.7862870150360509,"p_represented":0.21371298496394914,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_reservists_economic","raw_b5_point_pp":2.7746645619393573,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":5.0,"seat_range_display":"0, 4–8","seat_range_high":8,"seat_range_low":4,"seat_range_mode":"ZERO_SEPARATED_CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"RETROSPECTIVE_CAUSAL_RECONSTRUCTION_NOT_ORIGINALLY_ISSUED","vote_mean_pp":2.3725163285042004,"vote_q10_pp":0.869862216992188,"vote_q2_5_pp":0.5454759413063798,"vote_q90_pp":4.252223785546825,"vote_q97_5_pp":5.953188679509313,"zero_seat_probability":0.7862870150360509},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":17.652017940365237,"contest_party_id":"LIKUD","display_name_en":"Likud","display_name_he":"הליכוד","expected_seats":23.7286,"forecast_date":"2026-09-25","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":24,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-25T23:59:59+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":1.0,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.0,"p_represented":1.0,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_likud","raw_b5_point_pp":17.965595772824702,"seat_q10":19.0,"seat_q90":28.0,"seat_range_display":"19–28","seat_range_high":28,"seat_range_low":19,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"RETROSPECTIVE_CAUSAL_RECONSTRUCTION_NOT_ORIGINALLY_ISSUED","vote_mean_pp":17.651875703299797,"vote_q10_pp":14.575680841064516,"vote_q2_5_pp":13.186999590651919,"vote_q90_pp":20.910483650019604,"vote_q97_5_pp":22.803922640820485,"zero_seat_probability":0.0},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":5.793655288055897,"contest_party_id":"SHAS","display_name_en":"Shas","display_name_he":"ש״ס","expected_seats":7.2483,"forecast_date":"2026-09-25","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":8,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-25T23:59:59+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.94385,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.05615,"p_represented":0.94385,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_shas","raw_b5_point_pp":5.896576204711628,"seat_q10":4.0,"seat_q90":11.0,"seat_range_display":"5–11","seat_range_high":11,"seat_range_low":5,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"RETROSPECTIVE_CAUSAL_RECONSTRUCTION_NOT_ORIGINALLY_ISSUED","vote_mean_pp":5.793547388990441,"vote_q10_pp":3.600857458988051,"vote_q2_5_pp":2.8714116460092223,"vote_q90_pp":8.333889316138961,"vote_q97_5_pp":10.30443071369182,"zero_seat_probability":0.05615},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":6.0672260136797025,"contest_party_id":"UNITED_TORAH_JUDAISM","display_name_en":"United Torah Judaism","display_name_he":"יהדות התורה","expected_seats":7.68935,"forecast_date":"2026-09-25","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":8,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-25T23:59:59+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.96255,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.03745,"p_represented":0.96255,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_utj","raw_b5_point_pp":6.175006755169925,"seat_q10":5.0,"seat_q90":11.0,"seat_range_display":"5–12","seat_range_high":12,"seat_range_low":5,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"RETROSPECTIVE_CAUSAL_RECONSTRUCTION_NOT_ORIGINALLY_ISSUED","vote_mean_pp":6.067191019655147,"vote_q10_pp":3.800695694763147,"vote_q2_5_pp":3.072165653934614,"vote_q90_pp":8.691820212926562,"vote_q97_5_pp":10.7021937955656,"zero_seat_probability":0.03745},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":6.053839707453807,"contest_party_id":"OTZMA_YEHUDIT","display_name_en":"Otzma Yehudit","display_name_he":"עוצמה יהודית","expected_seats":7.71025,"forecast_date":"2026-09-25","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":8,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-25T23:59:59+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.9717,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.0283,"p_represented":0.9717,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_otzma","raw_b5_point_pp":6.161382648999278,"seat_q10":5.0,"seat_q90":11.0,"seat_range_display":"5–11","seat_range_high":11,"seat_range_low":5,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"RETROSPECTIVE_CAUSAL_RECONSTRUCTION_NOT_ORIGINALLY_ISSUED","vote_mean_pp":6.0538650837547685,"vote_q10_pp":3.941381893625293,"vote_q2_5_pp":3.1895747431020878,"vote_q90_pp":8.46620198974641,"vote_q97_5_pp":10.308786108574633,"zero_seat_probability":0.0283},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":4.648191358222541,"contest_party_id":"K26_NATIVE_LIST::RZP_AND_ZEHUT","display_name_en":"Religious Zionism–Zehut","display_name_he":"הציונות הדתית וזהות","expected_seats":5.14425,"forecast_date":"2026-09-25","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":6,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-25T23:59:59+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.7755,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.2245,"p_represented":0.7755,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_religious_zionism_zehut","raw_b5_point_pp":4.73076377435606,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":9.0,"seat_range_display":"4–10","seat_range_high":10,"seat_range_low":4,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"RETROSPECTIVE_CAUSAL_RECONSTRUCTION_NOT_ORIGINALLY_ISSUED","vote_mean_pp":4.648340349091223,"vote_q10_pp":2.656997826736033,"vote_q2_5_pp":2.038359650629435,"vote_q90_pp":6.98062846722625,"vote_q97_5_pp":8.989707447383985,"zero_seat_probability":0.2245},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":3.0856823603400874,"contest_party_id":"WINTER_NEW_PARTY","display_name_en":"Amcha Yisrael","display_name_he":"עמך ישראל","expected_seats":2.22885,"forecast_date":"2026-09-25","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":0,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-25T23:59:59+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.36185,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.63815,"p_represented":0.36185,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_amcha_yisrael","raw_b5_point_pp":3.1404977128670732,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":7.0,"seat_range_display":"0, 4–9","seat_range_high":9,"seat_range_low":4,"seat_range_mode":"ZERO_SEPARATED_CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"RETROSPECTIVE_CAUSAL_RECONSTRUCTION_NOT_ORIGINALLY_ISSUED","vote_mean_pp":3.0856040522898898,"vote_q10_pp":1.312516273955941,"vote_q2_5_pp":0.8831414980947387,"vote_q90_pp":5.363799245607141,"vote_q97_5_pp":7.663377207601463,"zero_seat_probability":0.63815},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":0.4967463293487009,"contest_party_id":"K26_NATIVE_LIST::HAREDI_PUBLIC","display_name_en":"Haredi Public","display_name_he":"הציבור החרדי","expected_seats":0.1117,"forecast_date":"2026-09-25","group_id":"UNCOMMITTED","headline_seats":0,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-25T23:59:59+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.01539999999999997,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.9846,"p_represented":0.0154,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_haredi_public","raw_b5_point_pp":0.5055707389864882,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":0.0,"seat_range_display":"0","seat_range_high":null,"seat_range_low":null,"seat_range_mode":"ZERO_ONLY_RARE_REPRESENTATION","snapshot_status":"RETROSPECTIVE_CAUSAL_RECONSTRUCTION_NOT_ORIGINALLY_ISSUED","vote_mean_pp":0.49682994234191663,"vote_q10_pp":0.04856734928249373,"vote_q2_5_pp":0.021315224270731566,"vote_q90_pp":1.1333349681286637,"vote_q97_5_pp":2.553146773098264,"zero_seat_probability":0.9846},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":9.377254043857262,"contest_party_id":"K26_NATIVE_LIST::BEYAHAD_BENNETT","display_name_en":"Beyachad","display_name_he":"ביחד","expected_seats":12.37075,"forecast_date":"2026-09-25","group_id":"CHANGE_CORE","headline_seats":12,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-25T23:59:59+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.99995,"p_below_legal_threshold":5e-05,"p_represented":0.99995,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_beyachad","raw_b5_point_pp":9.543835508221756,"seat_q10":9.0,"seat_q90":16.0,"seat_range_display":"9–16","seat_range_high":16,"seat_range_low":9,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"RETROSPECTIVE_CAUSAL_RECONSTRUCTION_NOT_ORIGINALLY_ISSUED","vote_mean_pp":9.37746425578063,"vote_q10_pp":6.7643965540394015,"vote_q2_5_pp":5.743203396495612,"vote_q90_pp":12.281907207680558,"vote_q97_5_pp":14.2653124472986,"zero_seat_probability":5e-05},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":17.264429404300934,"contest_party_id":"YASHAR_GADI_EISENKOT","display_name_en":"Yashar!","display_name_he":"ישר!","expected_seats":23.19885,"forecast_date":"2026-09-25","group_id":"CHANGE_CORE","headline_seats":23,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-25T23:59:59+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":1.0,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.0,"p_represented":1.0,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_yashar","raw_b5_point_pp":17.571121951835124,"seat_q10":19.0,"seat_q90":28.0,"seat_range_display":"19–28","seat_range_high":28,"seat_range_low":19,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"RETROSPECTIVE_CAUSAL_RECONSTRUCTION_NOT_ORIGINALLY_ISSUED","vote_mean_pp":17.2643680002221,"vote_q10_pp":14.075112567972372,"vote_q2_5_pp":12.668544694316624,"vote_q90_pp":20.673305184913673,"vote_q97_5_pp":22.65567361387769,"zero_seat_probability":0.0},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":6.544583267352757,"contest_party_id":"YISRAEL_BEITEINU","display_name_en":"Yisrael Beiteinu","display_name_he":"ישראל ביתנו","expected_seats":8.4156,"forecast_date":"2026-09-25","group_id":"CHANGE_CORE","headline_seats":9,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-25T23:59:59+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.98285,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.01715,"p_represented":0.98285,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_yisrael_beiteinu","raw_b5_point_pp":6.660843982827896,"seat_q10":5.0,"seat_q90":12.0,"seat_range_display":"5–12","seat_range_high":12,"seat_range_low":5,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"RETROSPECTIVE_CAUSAL_RECONSTRUCTION_NOT_ORIGINALLY_ISSUED","vote_mean_pp":6.544544888760271,"vote_q10_pp":4.218788814283752,"vote_q2_5_pp":3.4389677419915046,"vote_q90_pp":9.164502183313225,"vote_q97_5_pp":11.2052025110256,"zero_seat_probability":0.01715},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":7.404089029468704,"contest_party_id":"THE_DEMOCRATS","display_name_en":"The Democrats","display_name_he":"הדמוקרטים","expected_seats":9.6551,"forecast_date":"2026-09-25","group_id":"CHANGE_CORE","headline_seats":10,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-25T23:59:59+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.99755,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.00245,"p_represented":0.99755,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_democrats","raw_b5_point_pp":7.535618364927194,"seat_q10":6.0,"seat_q90":13.0,"seat_range_display":"6–13","seat_range_high":13,"seat_range_low":6,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"RETROSPECTIVE_CAUSAL_RECONSTRUCTION_NOT_ORIGINALLY_ISSUED","vote_mean_pp":7.4039143176409645,"vote_q10_pp":5.027619302769513,"vote_q2_5_pp":4.147486816136058,"vote_q90_pp":10.060343030794856,"vote_q97_5_pp":12.101170747691626,"zero_seat_probability":0.00245},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":3.9063341182995104,"contest_party_id":"RAAM","display_name_en":"Raam","display_name_he":"רע״ם","expected_seats":3.653,"forecast_date":"2026-09-25","group_id":"ARAB_LISTS","headline_seats":5,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-25T23:59:59+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.57755,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.42245,"p_represented":0.57755,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_raam","raw_b5_point_pp":3.9757278720231377,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":8.0,"seat_range_display":"0, 4–9","seat_range_high":9,"seat_range_low":4,"seat_range_mode":"ZERO_SEPARATED_CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"RETROSPECTIVE_CAUSAL_RECONSTRUCTION_NOT_ORIGINALLY_ISSUED","vote_mean_pp":3.906264801425646,"vote_q10_pp":1.9645289722680486,"vote_q2_5_pp":1.4351007705963184,"vote_q90_pp":6.2906464479764805,"vote_q97_5_pp":8.402636612643615,"zero_seat_probability":0.42245},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":5.707726806702635,"contest_party_id":"HADASH_TAAL_BALAD","display_name_en":"Joint List","display_name_he":"הרשימה המשותפת","expected_seats":7.10425,"forecast_date":"2026-09-25","group_id":"ARAB_LISTS","headline_seats":7,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-25T23:59:59+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.9359,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.0641,"p_represented":0.9359,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_joint_list","raw_b5_point_pp":5.809121253862339,"seat_q10":4.0,"seat_q90":11.0,"seat_range_display":"5–11","seat_range_high":11,"seat_range_low":5,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"RETROSPECTIVE_CAUSAL_RECONSTRUCTION_NOT_ORIGINALLY_ISSUED","vote_mean_pp":5.70769398758291,"vote_q10_pp":3.5332710655383095,"vote_q2_5_pp":2.7820582621186936,"vote_q90_pp":8.245004704194608,"vote_q97_5_pp":10.094822375095495,"zero_seat_probability":0.0641},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":1.1177682442030867,"contest_party_id":"BLUE_WHITE","display_name_en":"Blue and White","display_name_he":"כחול לבן","expected_seats":0.28185,"forecast_date":"2026-09-25","group_id":"UNCOMMITTED","headline_seats":0,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-25T23:59:59+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.045950000000000046,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.95405,"p_represented":0.04595,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_blue_white","raw_b5_point_pp":1.1376247469776333,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":0.0,"seat_range_display":"0","seat_range_high":null,"seat_range_low":null,"seat_range_mode":"ZERO_ONLY_RARE_REPRESENTATION","snapshot_status":"RETROSPECTIVE_CAUSAL_RECONSTRUCTION_NOT_ORIGINALLY_ISSUED","vote_mean_pp":1.117855891987678,"vote_q10_pp":0.2604130785395643,"vote_q2_5_pp":0.14982109918081482,"vote_q90_pp":2.3365363388521687,"vote_q97_5_pp":4.032420807532273,"zero_seat_probability":0.95405},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":2.4804560883491265,"contest_party_id":"K26_NATIVE_LIST::RESERVISTS_AND_NEW_ECONOMIC_PARTY","display_name_en":"Reservists–Economic","display_name_he":"המילואימניקים והכלכלית","expected_seats":1.4593,"forecast_date":"2026-09-25","group_id":"UNCOMMITTED","headline_seats":0,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-25T23:59:59+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.23314999999999997,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.76685,"p_represented":0.23315,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_reservists_economic","raw_b5_point_pp":2.5245199481482214,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":6.0,"seat_range_display":"0, 4–10","seat_range_high":10,"seat_range_low":4,"seat_range_mode":"ZERO_SEPARATED_CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"RETROSPECTIVE_CAUSAL_RECONSTRUCTION_NOT_ORIGINALLY_ISSUED","vote_mean_pp":2.480640317176618,"vote_q10_pp":0.8588468034456985,"vote_q2_5_pp":0.5513705208593778,"vote_q90_pp":4.604212339135015,"vote_q97_5_pp":7.20358070976708,"zero_seat_probability":0.76685},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":17.652017940365237,"contest_party_id":"LIKUD","display_name_en":"Likud","display_name_he":"הליכוד","expected_seats":24.16667960086832,"forecast_date":"2026-09-25","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":24,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-25T23:59:59+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":1.0,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.0,"p_represented":1.0,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_likud","raw_b5_point_pp":17.965595772824702,"seat_q10":20.0,"seat_q90":29.0,"seat_range_display":"20–29","seat_range_high":29,"seat_range_low":20,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"RETROSPECTIVE_CAUSAL_RECONSTRUCTION_NOT_ORIGINALLY_ISSUED","vote_mean_pp":18.059028760385985,"vote_q10_pp":15.102052002051268,"vote_q2_5_pp":13.71467027252869,"vote_q90_pp":21.17084387331488,"vote_q97_5_pp":22.903761600244735,"zero_seat_probability":0.0},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":5.793655288055897,"contest_party_id":"SHAS","display_name_en":"Shas","display_name_he":"ש״ס","expected_seats":7.62289356177412,"forecast_date":"2026-09-25","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":8,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-25T23:59:59+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.9758817957179596,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.02411820428204041,"p_represented":0.9758817957179595,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_shas","raw_b5_point_pp":5.896576204711628,"seat_q10":5.0,"seat_q90":11.0,"seat_range_display":"5–11","seat_range_high":11,"seat_range_low":5,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"RETROSPECTIVE_CAUSAL_RECONSTRUCTION_NOT_ORIGINALLY_ISSUED","vote_mean_pp":6.008093865545805,"vote_q10_pp":4.018371371012397,"vote_q2_5_pp":3.2597880691488057,"vote_q90_pp":8.161496453805976,"vote_q97_5_pp":9.709831101373664,"zero_seat_probability":0.02411820428204041},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":6.0672260136797025,"contest_party_id":"UNITED_TORAH_JUDAISM","display_name_en":"United Torah Judaism","display_name_he":"יהדות התורה","expected_seats":7.583745285399436,"forecast_date":"2026-09-25","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":8,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-25T23:59:59+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.9847123587720377,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.015287641227962341,"p_represented":0.9847123587720377,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_utj","raw_b5_point_pp":6.175006755169925,"seat_q10":5.0,"seat_q90":10.0,"seat_range_display":"5–10","seat_range_high":10,"seat_range_low":5,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"RETROSPECTIVE_CAUSAL_RECONSTRUCTION_NOT_ORIGINALLY_ISSUED","vote_mean_pp":5.961600238273451,"vote_q10_pp":4.115681321588535,"vote_q2_5_pp":3.4372891352438444,"vote_q90_pp":7.972644791486188,"vote_q97_5_pp":9.585232631491614,"zero_seat_probability":0.015287641227962341},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":6.053839707453807,"contest_party_id":"OTZMA_YEHUDIT","display_name_en":"Otzma Yehudit","display_name_he":"עוצמה יהודית","expected_seats":7.806974365000826,"forecast_date":"2026-09-25","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":8,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-25T23:59:59+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.9899537202970133,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.010046279702986652,"p_represented":0.9899537202970135,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_otzma","raw_b5_point_pp":6.161382648999278,"seat_q10":5.0,"seat_q90":10.0,"seat_range_display":"5–10","seat_range_high":10,"seat_range_low":5,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"RETROSPECTIVE_CAUSAL_RECONSTRUCTION_NOT_ORIGINALLY_ISSUED","vote_mean_pp":6.101359983007933,"vote_q10_pp":4.281902420847266,"vote_q2_5_pp":3.6009819898567486,"vote_q90_pp":8.034685192506766,"vote_q97_5_pp":9.486640648882886,"zero_seat_probability":0.010046279702986652},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":4.648191358222541,"contest_party_id":"K26_NATIVE_LIST::RZP_AND_ZEHUT","display_name_en":"Religious Zionism–Zehut","display_name_he":"הציונות הדתית וזהות","expected_seats":5.47782378763936,"forecast_date":"2026-09-25","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":6,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-25T23:59:59+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.8525350575340611,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.14746494246593894,"p_represented":0.8525350575340611,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_religious_zionism_zehut","raw_b5_point_pp":4.73076377435606,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":9.0,"seat_range_display":"4–9","seat_range_high":9,"seat_range_low":4,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"RETROSPECTIVE_CAUSAL_RECONSTRUCTION_NOT_ORIGINALLY_ISSUED","vote_mean_pp":4.732650418028946,"vote_q10_pp":2.9348958646484804,"vote_q2_5_pp":2.2116769165102323,"vote_q90_pp":6.626380957137296,"vote_q97_5_pp":8.02842352489882,"zero_seat_probability":0.14746494246593894},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":3.0856823603400874,"contest_party_id":"WINTER_NEW_PARTY","display_name_en":"Amcha Yisrael","display_name_he":"עמך ישראל","expected_seats":1.8073168104884147,"forecast_date":"2026-09-25","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":0,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-25T23:59:59+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.3245142154249716,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.6754857845750284,"p_represented":0.3245142154249716,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_amcha_yisrael","raw_b5_point_pp":3.1404977128670732,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":6.0,"seat_range_display":"0, 4–7","seat_range_high":7,"seat_range_low":4,"seat_range_mode":"ZERO_SEPARATED_CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"RETROSPECTIVE_CAUSAL_RECONSTRUCTION_NOT_ORIGINALLY_ISSUED","vote_mean_pp":2.8543106285521658,"vote_q10_pp":1.288743127367495,"vote_q2_5_pp":0.8662267273221328,"vote_q90_pp":4.740388453286064,"vote_q97_5_pp":6.217343897649585,"zero_seat_probability":0.6754857845750284},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":0.4967463293487009,"contest_party_id":"K26_NATIVE_LIST::HAREDI_PUBLIC","display_name_en":"Haredi Public","display_name_he":"הציבור החרדי","expected_seats":0.023882604415766395,"forecast_date":"2026-09-25","group_id":"UNCOMMITTED","headline_seats":0,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-25T23:59:59+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.003579767744634088,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.9964202322553659,"p_represented":0.0035797677446340183,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_haredi_public","raw_b5_point_pp":0.5055707389864882,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":0.0,"seat_range_display":"0","seat_range_high":null,"seat_range_low":null,"seat_range_mode":"ZERO_ONLY_RARE_REPRESENTATION","snapshot_status":"RETROSPECTIVE_CAUSAL_RECONSTRUCTION_NOT_ORIGINALLY_ISSUED","vote_mean_pp":0.4217418633441741,"vote_q10_pp":0.047043329818425815,"vote_q2_5_pp":0.02078370602903599,"vote_q90_pp":1.0078372997049778,"vote_q97_5_pp":2.0594273201477393,"zero_seat_probability":0.9964202322553659},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":9.377254043857262,"contest_party_id":"K26_NATIVE_LIST::BEYAHAD_BENNETT","display_name_en":"Beyachad","display_name_he":"ביחד","expected_seats":12.351131405781501,"forecast_date":"2026-09-25","group_id":"CHANGE_CORE","headline_seats":12,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-25T23:59:59+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.9999989630453839,"p_below_legal_threshold":1.0369546160397859e-06,"p_represented":0.9999989630453839,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_beyachad","raw_b5_point_pp":9.543835508221756,"seat_q10":9.0,"seat_q90":16.0,"seat_range_display":"9–16","seat_range_high":16,"seat_range_low":9,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"RETROSPECTIVE_CAUSAL_RECONSTRUCTION_NOT_ORIGINALLY_ISSUED","vote_mean_pp":9.41049127262843,"vote_q10_pp":7.045451883407762,"vote_q2_5_pp":6.059025130535641,"vote_q90_pp":11.953329841119867,"vote_q97_5_pp":13.601590304965477,"zero_seat_probability":1.0369546160397859e-06},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":17.264429404300934,"contest_party_id":"YASHAR_GADI_EISENKOT","display_name_en":"Yashar!","display_name_he":"ישר!","expected_seats":23.287371473504038,"forecast_date":"2026-09-25","group_id":"CHANGE_CORE","headline_seats":24,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-25T23:59:59+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":1.0,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.0,"p_represented":1.0,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_yashar","raw_b5_point_pp":17.571121951835124,"seat_q10":20.0,"seat_q90":27.0,"seat_range_display":"20–27","seat_range_high":27,"seat_range_low":20,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"RETROSPECTIVE_CAUSAL_RECONSTRUCTION_NOT_ORIGINALLY_ISSUED","vote_mean_pp":17.419856621665737,"vote_q10_pp":14.879448709414042,"vote_q2_5_pp":13.633472438220348,"vote_q90_pp":20.088993443537515,"vote_q97_5_pp":21.814720248355577,"zero_seat_probability":0.0},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":6.544583267352757,"contest_party_id":"YISRAEL_BEITEINU","display_name_en":"Yisrael Beiteinu","display_name_he":"ישראל ביתנו","expected_seats":8.23499617225727,"forecast_date":"2026-09-25","group_id":"CHANGE_CORE","headline_seats":8,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-25T23:59:59+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.9947053236215768,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.005294676378423233,"p_represented":0.9947053236215768,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_yisrael_beiteinu","raw_b5_point_pp":6.660843982827896,"seat_q10":6.0,"seat_q90":11.0,"seat_range_display":"6–11","seat_range_high":11,"seat_range_low":6,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"RETROSPECTIVE_CAUSAL_RECONSTRUCTION_NOT_ORIGINALLY_ISSUED","vote_mean_pp":6.415802782283818,"vote_q10_pp":4.525103706930579,"vote_q2_5_pp":3.778244835500885,"vote_q90_pp":8.454029658187109,"vote_q97_5_pp":10.044792910702904,"zero_seat_probability":0.005294676378423233},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":7.404089029468704,"contest_party_id":"THE_DEMOCRATS","display_name_en":"The Democrats","display_name_he":"הדמוקרטים","expected_seats":9.67165762884725,"forecast_date":"2026-09-25","group_id":"CHANGE_CORE","headline_seats":10,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-25T23:59:59+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.9996022211277305,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.00039777887226952424,"p_represented":0.9996022211277305,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_democrats","raw_b5_point_pp":7.535618364927194,"seat_q10":7.0,"seat_q90":12.0,"seat_range_display":"7–12","seat_range_high":12,"seat_range_low":7,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"RETROSPECTIVE_CAUSAL_RECONSTRUCTION_NOT_ORIGINALLY_ISSUED","vote_mean_pp":7.447600643824414,"vote_q10_pp":5.4882769312208195,"vote_q2_5_pp":4.631454552134295,"vote_q90_pp":9.493995643066542,"vote_q97_5_pp":11.02109718750002,"zero_seat_probability":0.00039777887226952424},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":3.9063341182995104,"contest_party_id":"RAAM","display_name_en":"Raam","display_name_he":"רע״ם","expected_seats":3.653027103650797,"forecast_date":"2026-09-25","group_id":"ARAB_LISTS","headline_seats":5,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-25T23:59:59+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.6223882290091411,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.37761177099085885,"p_represented":0.6223882290091411,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_raam","raw_b5_point_pp":3.9757278720231377,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":7.0,"seat_range_display":"0, 4–8","seat_range_high":8,"seat_range_low":4,"seat_range_mode":"ZERO_SEPARATED_CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"RETROSPECTIVE_CAUSAL_RECONSTRUCTION_NOT_ORIGINALLY_ISSUED","vote_mean_pp":3.8298733237398803,"vote_q10_pp":2.023631139120528,"vote_q2_5_pp":1.4464302176531842,"vote_q90_pp":5.775459124562193,"vote_q97_5_pp":7.138233950257622,"zero_seat_probability":0.37761177099085885},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":5.707726806702635,"contest_party_id":"HADASH_TAAL_BALAD","display_name_en":"Joint List","display_name_he":"הרשימה המשותפת","expected_seats":7.218018114088853,"forecast_date":"2026-09-25","group_id":"ARAB_LISTS","headline_seats":7,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-25T23:59:59+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.9716107438121939,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.02838925618780607,"p_represented":0.9716107438121939,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_joint_list","raw_b5_point_pp":5.809121253862339,"seat_q10":5.0,"seat_q90":10.0,"seat_range_display":"5–10","seat_range_high":10,"seat_range_low":5,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"RETROSPECTIVE_CAUSAL_RECONSTRUCTION_NOT_ORIGINALLY_ISSUED","vote_mean_pp":5.723508265159733,"vote_q10_pp":3.8941613655344196,"vote_q2_5_pp":3.1937840924190306,"vote_q90_pp":7.72084439438417,"vote_q97_5_pp":9.105100735875885,"zero_seat_probability":0.02838925618780607},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":1.1177682442030867,"contest_party_id":"BLUE_WHITE","display_name_en":"Blue and White","display_name_he":"כחול לבן","expected_seats":0.07223196982706548,"forecast_date":"2026-09-25","group_id":"UNCOMMITTED","headline_seats":0,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-25T23:59:59+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.011813155990484492,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.9881868440095155,"p_represented":0.011813155990484513,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_blue_white","raw_b5_point_pp":1.1376247469776333,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":0.0,"seat_range_display":"0","seat_range_high":null,"seat_range_low":null,"seat_range_mode":"ZERO_ONLY_RARE_REPRESENTATION","snapshot_status":"RETROSPECTIVE_CAUSAL_RECONSTRUCTION_NOT_ORIGINALLY_ISSUED","vote_mean_pp":0.9824626629116235,"vote_q10_pp":0.25743312447265937,"vote_q2_5_pp":0.14651719090661844,"vote_q90_pp":1.9999981411186487,"vote_q97_5_pp":2.929278379643772,"zero_seat_probability":0.9881868440095155},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":2.4804560883491265,"contest_party_id":"K26_NATIVE_LIST::RESERVISTS_AND_NEW_ECONOMIC_PARTY","display_name_en":"Reservists–Economic","display_name_he":"המילואימניקים והכלכלית","expected_seats":1.0222501164569802,"forecast_date":"2026-09-25","group_id":"UNCOMMITTED","headline_seats":0,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-25T23:59:59+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.18577152360217264,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.8142284763978274,"p_represented":0.18577152360217272,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_reservists_economic","raw_b5_point_pp":2.5245199481482214,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":5.0,"seat_range_display":"0, 4–7","seat_range_high":7,"seat_range_low":4,"seat_range_mode":"ZERO_SEPARATED_CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"RETROSPECTIVE_CAUSAL_RECONSTRUCTION_NOT_ORIGINALLY_ISSUED","vote_mean_pp":2.231618670647905,"vote_q10_pp":0.8373331067383291,"vote_q2_5_pp":0.5494019205366322,"vote_q90_pp":3.9762476010640837,"vote_q97_5_pp":5.4798591518074335,"zero_seat_probability":0.8142284763978274},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":17.652017940365237,"contest_party_id":"LIKUD","display_name_en":"Likud","display_name_he":"הליכוד","expected_seats":23.70805,"forecast_date":"2026-09-26","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":24,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-26T23:59:59+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":1.0,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.0,"p_represented":1.0,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_likud","raw_b5_point_pp":17.965595772824702,"seat_q10":20.0,"seat_q90":28.0,"seat_range_display":"20–28","seat_range_high":28,"seat_range_low":20,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"RETROSPECTIVE_CAUSAL_RECONSTRUCTION_NOT_ORIGINALLY_ISSUED","vote_mean_pp":17.65206371681781,"vote_q10_pp":14.797710223780149,"vote_q2_5_pp":13.509582023991968,"vote_q90_pp":20.67295421680699,"vote_q97_5_pp":22.50743218481841,"zero_seat_probability":0.0},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":5.793655288055897,"contest_party_id":"SHAS","display_name_en":"Shas","display_name_he":"ש״ס","expected_seats":7.3009,"forecast_date":"2026-09-26","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":8,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-26T23:59:59+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.9601999999999999,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.0398,"p_represented":0.9602,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_shas","raw_b5_point_pp":5.896576204711628,"seat_q10":5.0,"seat_q90":11.0,"seat_range_display":"5–11","seat_range_high":11,"seat_range_low":5,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"RETROSPECTIVE_CAUSAL_RECONSTRUCTION_NOT_ORIGINALLY_ISSUED","vote_mean_pp":5.793560968589392,"vote_q10_pp":3.757313612723645,"vote_q2_5_pp":3.040968569439988,"vote_q90_pp":8.14484035825215,"vote_q97_5_pp":9.880812590890105,"zero_seat_probability":0.0398},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":6.0672260136797025,"contest_party_id":"UNITED_TORAH_JUDAISM","display_name_en":"United Torah Judaism","display_name_he":"יהדות התורה","expected_seats":7.7115,"forecast_date":"2026-09-26","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":8,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-26T23:59:59+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.971,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.029,"p_represented":0.971,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_utj","raw_b5_point_pp":6.175006755169925,"seat_q10":5.0,"seat_q90":11.0,"seat_range_display":"5–11","seat_range_high":11,"seat_range_low":5,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"RETROSPECTIVE_CAUSAL_RECONSTRUCTION_NOT_ORIGINALLY_ISSUED","vote_mean_pp":6.067200695720575,"vote_q10_pp":3.946832144074192,"vote_q2_5_pp":3.1937091600297096,"vote_q90_pp":8.442383180686399,"vote_q97_5_pp":10.25240748329634,"zero_seat_probability":0.029},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":6.053839707453807,"contest_party_id":"OTZMA_YEHUDIT","display_name_en":"Otzma Yehudit","display_name_he":"עוצמה יהודית","expected_seats":7.72695,"forecast_date":"2026-09-26","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":8,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-26T23:59:59+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.97915,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.02085,"p_represented":0.97915,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_otzma","raw_b5_point_pp":6.161382648999278,"seat_q10":5.0,"seat_q90":11.0,"seat_range_display":"5–11","seat_range_high":11,"seat_range_low":5,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"RETROSPECTIVE_CAUSAL_RECONSTRUCTION_NOT_ORIGINALLY_ISSUED","vote_mean_pp":6.053849808008,"vote_q10_pp":4.041556058228872,"vote_q2_5_pp":3.3133403031552584,"vote_q90_pp":8.334688412708125,"vote_q97_5_pp":10.064188208397892,"zero_seat_probability":0.02085},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":4.648191358222541,"contest_party_id":"K26_NATIVE_LIST::RZP_AND_ZEHUT","display_name_en":"Religious Zionism–Zehut","display_name_he":"הציונות הדתית וזהות","expected_seats":5.20785,"forecast_date":"2026-09-26","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":6,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-26T23:59:59+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.8004,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.1996,"p_represented":0.8004,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_religious_zionism_zehut","raw_b5_point_pp":4.73076377435606,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":9.0,"seat_range_display":"4–9","seat_range_high":9,"seat_range_low":4,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"RETROSPECTIVE_CAUSAL_RECONSTRUCTION_NOT_ORIGINALLY_ISSUED","vote_mean_pp":4.6482800603546925,"vote_q10_pp":2.777922656003529,"vote_q2_5_pp":2.1632691361320444,"vote_q90_pp":6.848323569791719,"vote_q97_5_pp":8.729139893426076,"zero_seat_probability":0.1996},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":3.0856823603400874,"contest_party_id":"WINTER_NEW_PARTY","display_name_en":"Amcha Yisrael","display_name_he":"עמך ישראל","expected_seats":2.1819,"forecast_date":"2026-09-26","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":0,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-26T23:59:59+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.3648,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.6352,"p_represented":0.3648,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_amcha_yisrael","raw_b5_point_pp":3.1404977128670732,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":7.0,"seat_range_display":"0, 4–9","seat_range_high":9,"seat_range_low":4,"seat_range_mode":"ZERO_SEPARATED_CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"RETROSPECTIVE_CAUSAL_RECONSTRUCTION_NOT_ORIGINALLY_ISSUED","vote_mean_pp":3.0857974926624236,"vote_q10_pp":1.395387784268332,"vote_q2_5_pp":0.9786423051348427,"vote_q90_pp":5.247032668066259,"vote_q97_5_pp":7.31777643105726,"zero_seat_probability":0.6352},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":0.4967463293487009,"contest_party_id":"K26_NATIVE_LIST::HAREDI_PUBLIC","display_name_en":"Haredi Public","display_name_he":"הציבור החרדי","expected_seats":0.0872,"forecast_date":"2026-09-26","group_id":"UNCOMMITTED","headline_seats":0,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-26T23:59:59+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.013349999999999973,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.98665,"p_represented":0.01335,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_haredi_public","raw_b5_point_pp":0.5055707389864882,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":0.0,"seat_range_display":"0","seat_range_high":null,"seat_range_low":null,"seat_range_mode":"ZERO_ONLY_RARE_REPRESENTATION","snapshot_status":"RETROSPECTIVE_CAUSAL_RECONSTRUCTION_NOT_ORIGINALLY_ISSUED","vote_mean_pp":0.4966895189407555,"vote_q10_pp":0.05606785395796136,"vote_q2_5_pp":0.025195576758931554,"vote_q90_pp":1.1474811617790266,"vote_q97_5_pp":2.499460915840448,"zero_seat_probability":0.98665},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":9.377254043857262,"contest_party_id":"K26_NATIVE_LIST::BEYAHAD_BENNETT","display_name_en":"Beyachad","display_name_he":"ביחד","expected_seats":12.36215,"forecast_date":"2026-09-26","group_id":"CHANGE_CORE","headline_seats":12,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-26T23:59:59+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":1.0,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.0,"p_represented":1.0,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_beyachad","raw_b5_point_pp":9.543835508221756,"seat_q10":9.0,"seat_q90":16.0,"seat_range_display":"9–16","seat_range_high":16,"seat_range_low":9,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"RETROSPECTIVE_CAUSAL_RECONSTRUCTION_NOT_ORIGINALLY_ISSUED","vote_mean_pp":9.377263494126161,"vote_q10_pp":6.897693506929312,"vote_q2_5_pp":5.9086044527592,"vote_q90_pp":12.115765142987206,"vote_q97_5_pp":13.989487774948188,"zero_seat_probability":0.0},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":17.264429404300934,"contest_party_id":"YASHAR_GADI_EISENKOT","display_name_en":"Yashar!","display_name_he":"ישר!","expected_seats":23.1775,"forecast_date":"2026-09-26","group_id":"CHANGE_CORE","headline_seats":23,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-26T23:59:59+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":1.0,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.0,"p_represented":1.0,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_yashar","raw_b5_point_pp":17.571121951835124,"seat_q10":19.0,"seat_q90":28.0,"seat_range_display":"19–28","seat_range_high":28,"seat_range_low":19,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"RETROSPECTIVE_CAUSAL_RECONSTRUCTION_NOT_ORIGINALLY_ISSUED","vote_mean_pp":17.26421918614479,"vote_q10_pp":14.311570836299925,"vote_q2_5_pp":12.907638431965959,"vote_q90_pp":20.411267437042536,"vote_q97_5_pp":22.308646659169632,"zero_seat_probability":0.0},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":6.544583267352757,"contest_party_id":"YISRAEL_BEITEINU","display_name_en":"Yisrael Beiteinu","display_name_he":"ישראל ביתנו","expected_seats":8.43865,"forecast_date":"2026-09-26","group_id":"CHANGE_CORE","headline_seats":9,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-26T23:59:59+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.9893,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.0107,"p_represented":0.9893,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_yisrael_beiteinu","raw_b5_point_pp":6.660843982827896,"seat_q10":5.0,"seat_q90":12.0,"seat_range_display":"6–12","seat_range_high":12,"seat_range_low":6,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"RETROSPECTIVE_CAUSAL_RECONSTRUCTION_NOT_ORIGINALLY_ISSUED","vote_mean_pp":6.544669080337244,"vote_q10_pp":4.392012925517191,"vote_q2_5_pp":3.577651903420447,"vote_q90_pp":8.99574649650411,"vote_q97_5_pp":10.79781992718529,"zero_seat_probability":0.0107},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":7.404089029468704,"contest_party_id":"THE_DEMOCRATS","display_name_en":"The Democrats","display_name_he":"הדמוקרטים","expected_seats":9.6547,"forecast_date":"2026-09-26","group_id":"CHANGE_CORE","headline_seats":10,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-26T23:59:59+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.9991,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.0009,"p_represented":0.9991,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_democrats","raw_b5_point_pp":7.535618364927194,"seat_q10":7.0,"seat_q90":13.0,"seat_range_display":"7–13","seat_range_high":13,"seat_range_low":7,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"RETROSPECTIVE_CAUSAL_RECONSTRUCTION_NOT_ORIGINALLY_ISSUED","vote_mean_pp":7.404118465326881,"vote_q10_pp":5.174121837951537,"vote_q2_5_pp":4.356500868115858,"vote_q90_pp":9.89747446718777,"vote_q97_5_pp":11.575951024011689,"zero_seat_probability":0.0009},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":3.9063341182995104,"contest_party_id":"RAAM","display_name_en":"Raam","display_name_he":"רע״ם","expected_seats":3.6474,"forecast_date":"2026-09-26","group_id":"ARAB_LISTS","headline_seats":5,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-26T23:59:59+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.5905,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.4095,"p_represented":0.5905,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_raam","raw_b5_point_pp":3.9757278720231377,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":8.0,"seat_range_display":"0, 4–9","seat_range_high":9,"seat_range_low":4,"seat_range_mode":"ZERO_SEPARATED_CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"RETROSPECTIVE_CAUSAL_RECONSTRUCTION_NOT_ORIGINALLY_ISSUED","vote_mean_pp":3.906283199478526,"vote_q10_pp":2.0750641900490026,"vote_q2_5_pp":1.5343248318143,"vote_q90_pp":6.131757719473478,"vote_q97_5_pp":8.239687635177845,"zero_seat_probability":0.4095},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":5.707726806702635,"contest_party_id":"HADASH_TAAL_BALAD","display_name_en":"Joint List","display_name_he":"הרשימה המשותפת","expected_seats":7.1441,"forecast_date":"2026-09-26","group_id":"ARAB_LISTS","headline_seats":7,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-26T23:59:59+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.94915,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.05085,"p_represented":0.94915,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_joint_list","raw_b5_point_pp":5.809121253862339,"seat_q10":4.0,"seat_q90":11.0,"seat_range_display":"5–11","seat_range_high":11,"seat_range_low":5,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"RETROSPECTIVE_CAUSAL_RECONSTRUCTION_NOT_ORIGINALLY_ISSUED","vote_mean_pp":5.707736188684456,"vote_q10_pp":3.6517849564129925,"vote_q2_5_pp":2.92818819671936,"vote_q90_pp":8.08998173886764,"vote_q97_5_pp":9.887855741997422,"zero_seat_probability":0.05085},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":1.1177682442030867,"contest_party_id":"BLUE_WHITE","display_name_en":"Blue and White","display_name_he":"כחול לבן","expected_seats":0.25435,"forecast_date":"2026-09-26","group_id":"UNCOMMITTED","headline_seats":0,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-26T23:59:59+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.043749999999999956,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.95625,"p_represented":0.04375,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_blue_white","raw_b5_point_pp":1.1376247469776333,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":0.0,"seat_range_display":"0","seat_range_high":null,"seat_range_low":null,"seat_range_mode":"ZERO_ONLY_RARE_REPRESENTATION","snapshot_status":"RETROSPECTIVE_CAUSAL_RECONSTRUCTION_NOT_ORIGINALLY_ISSUED","vote_mean_pp":1.117911684296716,"vote_q10_pp":0.28203936523993195,"vote_q2_5_pp":0.15738571891964107,"vote_q90_pp":2.279066849545456,"vote_q97_5_pp":3.955377306571215,"zero_seat_probability":0.95625},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":2.4804560883491265,"contest_party_id":"K26_NATIVE_LIST::RESERVISTS_AND_NEW_ECONOMIC_PARTY","display_name_en":"Reservists–Economic","display_name_he":"המילואימניקים והכלכלית","expected_seats":1.3968,"forecast_date":"2026-09-26","group_id":"UNCOMMITTED","headline_seats":0,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-26T23:59:59+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.23124999999999996,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.76875,"p_represented":0.23125,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_reservists_economic","raw_b5_point_pp":2.5245199481482214,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":6.0,"seat_range_display":"0, 4–9","seat_range_high":9,"seat_range_low":4,"seat_range_mode":"ZERO_SEPARATED_CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"RETROSPECTIVE_CAUSAL_RECONSTRUCTION_NOT_ORIGINALLY_ISSUED","vote_mean_pp":2.4803564405115752,"vote_q10_pp":0.9426637192723074,"vote_q2_5_pp":0.6195250087903946,"vote_q90_pp":4.5125993250315855,"vote_q97_5_pp":6.739913200750511,"zero_seat_probability":0.76875},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":17.652017940365237,"contest_party_id":"LIKUD","display_name_en":"Likud","display_name_he":"הליכוד","expected_seats":24.10408383396213,"forecast_date":"2026-09-26","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":24,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-26T23:59:59+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":1.0,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.0,"p_represented":1.0,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_likud","raw_b5_point_pp":17.965595772824702,"seat_q10":20.0,"seat_q90":28.0,"seat_range_display":"20–28","seat_range_high":28,"seat_range_low":20,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"RETROSPECTIVE_CAUSAL_RECONSTRUCTION_NOT_ORIGINALLY_ISSUED","vote_mean_pp":18.01399272355874,"vote_q10_pp":15.250117538810892,"vote_q2_5_pp":13.959596595138155,"vote_q90_pp":20.94619324266116,"vote_q97_5_pp":22.648446961301172,"zero_seat_probability":0.0},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":5.793655288055897,"contest_party_id":"SHAS","display_name_en":"Shas","display_name_he":"ש״ס","expected_seats":7.6113850445278874,"forecast_date":"2026-09-26","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":8,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-26T23:59:59+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.9836592384737659,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.016340761526234107,"p_represented":0.9836592384737659,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_shas","raw_b5_point_pp":5.896576204711628,"seat_q10":5.0,"seat_q90":10.0,"seat_range_display":"5–11","seat_range_high":11,"seat_range_low":5,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"RETROSPECTIVE_CAUSAL_RECONSTRUCTION_NOT_ORIGINALLY_ISSUED","vote_mean_pp":5.977831763716331,"vote_q10_pp":4.118020715150747,"vote_q2_5_pp":3.411070228650373,"vote_q90_pp":8.056848942544352,"vote_q97_5_pp":9.462977668662916,"zero_seat_probability":0.016340761526234107},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":6.0672260136797025,"contest_party_id":"UNITED_TORAH_JUDAISM","display_name_en":"United Torah Judaism","display_name_he":"יהדות התורה","expected_seats":7.62294253485949,"forecast_date":"2026-09-26","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":8,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-26T23:59:59+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.9880800536634531,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.011919946336546893,"p_represented":0.9880800536634531,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_utj","raw_b5_point_pp":6.175006755169925,"seat_q10":5.0,"seat_q90":10.0,"seat_range_display":"5–10","seat_range_high":10,"seat_range_low":5,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"RETROSPECTIVE_CAUSAL_RECONSTRUCTION_NOT_ORIGINALLY_ISSUED","vote_mean_pp":5.979957072156704,"vote_q10_pp":4.212440698821445,"vote_q2_5_pp":3.522647609689072,"vote_q90_pp":7.854686394260668,"vote_q97_5_pp":9.262853619403803,"zero_seat_probability":0.011919946336546893},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":6.053839707453807,"contest_party_id":"OTZMA_YEHUDIT","display_name_en":"Otzma Yehudit","display_name_he":"עוצמה יהודית","expected_seats":7.803745760842734,"forecast_date":"2026-09-26","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":8,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-26T23:59:59+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.9931695417163116,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.0068304582836884375,"p_represented":0.9931695417163117,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_otzma","raw_b5_point_pp":6.161382648999278,"seat_q10":5.0,"seat_q90":10.0,"seat_range_display":"6–10","seat_range_high":10,"seat_range_low":6,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"RETROSPECTIVE_CAUSAL_RECONSTRUCTION_NOT_ORIGINALLY_ISSUED","vote_mean_pp":6.093919646665261,"vote_q10_pp":4.3782132995727805,"vote_q2_5_pp":3.679613026302916,"vote_q90_pp":7.974177658175185,"vote_q97_5_pp":9.2967037647713,"zero_seat_probability":0.0068304582836884375},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":4.648191358222541,"contest_party_id":"K26_NATIVE_LIST::RZP_AND_ZEHUT","display_name_en":"Religious Zionism–Zehut","display_name_he":"הציונות הדתית וזהות","expected_seats":5.533883470979527,"forecast_date":"2026-09-26","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":6,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-26T23:59:59+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.8702074650463438,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.1297925349536561,"p_represented":0.8702074650463438,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_religious_zionism_zehut","raw_b5_point_pp":4.73076377435606,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":8.0,"seat_range_display":"4–9","seat_range_high":9,"seat_range_low":4,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"RETROSPECTIVE_CAUSAL_RECONSTRUCTION_NOT_ORIGINALLY_ISSUED","vote_mean_pp":4.7337892844785,"vote_q10_pp":3.0438855091862407,"vote_q2_5_pp":2.3249338487437172,"vote_q90_pp":6.55320142678672,"vote_q97_5_pp":7.862836983300482,"zero_seat_probability":0.1297925349536561},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":3.0856823603400874,"contest_party_id":"WINTER_NEW_PARTY","display_name_en":"Amcha Yisrael","display_name_he":"עמך ישראל","expected_seats":1.80528054140803,"forecast_date":"2026-09-26","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":0,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-26T23:59:59+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.33076349848705644,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.6692365015129436,"p_represented":0.33076349848705655,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_amcha_yisrael","raw_b5_point_pp":3.1404977128670732,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":6.0,"seat_range_display":"0, 4–7","seat_range_high":7,"seat_range_low":4,"seat_range_mode":"ZERO_SEPARATED_CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"RETROSPECTIVE_CAUSAL_RECONSTRUCTION_NOT_ORIGINALLY_ISSUED","vote_mean_pp":2.88321350291562,"vote_q10_pp":1.3853768475501789,"vote_q2_5_pp":0.9791296632115928,"vote_q90_pp":4.680018942973871,"vote_q97_5_pp":6.06538958296269,"zero_seat_probability":0.6692365015129436},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":0.4967463293487009,"contest_party_id":"K26_NATIVE_LIST::HAREDI_PUBLIC","display_name_en":"Haredi Public","display_name_he":"הציבור החרדי","expected_seats":0.019542951220422138,"forecast_date":"2026-09-26","group_id":"UNCOMMITTED","headline_seats":0,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-26T23:59:59+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.003125474494604208,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.9968745255053958,"p_represented":0.0031254744946042127,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_haredi_public","raw_b5_point_pp":0.5055707389864882,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":0.0,"seat_range_display":"0","seat_range_high":null,"seat_range_low":null,"seat_range_mode":"ZERO_ONLY_RARE_REPRESENTATION","snapshot_status":"RETROSPECTIVE_CAUSAL_RECONSTRUCTION_NOT_ORIGINALLY_ISSUED","vote_mean_pp":0.4323701451575348,"vote_q10_pp":0.0546377651085877,"vote_q2_5_pp":0.02481024790995343,"vote_q90_pp":1.024983087915857,"vote_q97_5_pp":2.0208895113695746,"zero_seat_probability":0.9968745255053958},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":9.377254043857262,"contest_party_id":"K26_NATIVE_LIST::BEYAHAD_BENNETT","display_name_en":"Beyachad","display_name_he":"ביחד","expected_seats":12.36646910248367,"forecast_date":"2026-09-26","group_id":"CHANGE_CORE","headline_seats":12,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-26T23:59:59+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":1.0,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.0,"p_represented":1.0,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_beyachad","raw_b5_point_pp":9.543835508221756,"seat_q10":9.0,"seat_q90":16.0,"seat_range_display":"9–16","seat_range_high":16,"seat_range_low":9,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"RETROSPECTIVE_CAUSAL_RECONSTRUCTION_NOT_ORIGINALLY_ISSUED","vote_mean_pp":9.417421206272667,"vote_q10_pp":7.142433276284253,"vote_q2_5_pp":6.156945814026009,"vote_q90_pp":11.852954701649205,"vote_q97_5_pp":13.447553017228628,"zero_seat_probability":0.0},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":17.264429404300934,"contest_party_id":"YASHAR_GADI_EISENKOT","display_name_en":"Yashar!","display_name_he":"ישר!","expected_seats":23.254443712532083,"forecast_date":"2026-09-26","group_id":"CHANGE_CORE","headline_seats":24,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-26T23:59:59+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":1.0,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.0,"p_represented":1.0,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_yashar","raw_b5_point_pp":17.571121951835124,"seat_q10":20.0,"seat_q90":27.0,"seat_range_display":"20–27","seat_range_high":27,"seat_range_low":20,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"RETROSPECTIVE_CAUSAL_RECONSTRUCTION_NOT_ORIGINALLY_ISSUED","vote_mean_pp":17.393122715887422,"vote_q10_pp":14.932613090109784,"vote_q2_5_pp":13.826556782310956,"vote_q90_pp":19.957515252770474,"vote_q97_5_pp":21.545707761786282,"zero_seat_probability":0.0},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":6.544583267352757,"contest_party_id":"YISRAEL_BEITEINU","display_name_en":"Yisrael Beiteinu","display_name_he":"ישראל ביתנו","expected_seats":8.276487431107395,"forecast_date":"2026-09-26","group_id":"CHANGE_CORE","headline_seats":8,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-26T23:59:59+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.9966878677353908,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.003312132264609255,"p_represented":0.9966878677353908,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_yisrael_beiteinu","raw_b5_point_pp":6.660843982827896,"seat_q10":6.0,"seat_q90":11.0,"seat_range_display":"6–11","seat_range_high":11,"seat_range_low":6,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"RETROSPECTIVE_CAUSAL_RECONSTRUCTION_NOT_ORIGINALLY_ISSUED","vote_mean_pp":6.433873416267747,"vote_q10_pp":4.6432153741534234,"vote_q2_5_pp":3.904189118265478,"vote_q90_pp":8.362046290480828,"vote_q97_5_pp":9.79459791160943,"zero_seat_probability":0.003312132264609255},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":7.404089029468704,"contest_party_id":"THE_DEMOCRATS","display_name_en":"The Democrats","display_name_he":"הדמוקרטים","expected_seats":9.64149101908785,"forecast_date":"2026-09-26","group_id":"CHANGE_CORE","headline_seats":10,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-26T23:59:59+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.9998508274771473,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.0001491725228527396,"p_represented":0.9998508274771473,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_democrats","raw_b5_point_pp":7.535618364927194,"seat_q10":7.0,"seat_q90":12.0,"seat_range_display":"7–12","seat_range_high":12,"seat_range_low":7,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"RETROSPECTIVE_CAUSAL_RECONSTRUCTION_NOT_ORIGINALLY_ISSUED","vote_mean_pp":7.422519262714828,"vote_q10_pp":5.545831234066231,"vote_q2_5_pp":4.745795759919164,"vote_q90_pp":9.386407481667444,"vote_q97_5_pp":10.745827135040987,"zero_seat_probability":0.0001491725228527396},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":3.9063341182995104,"contest_party_id":"RAAM","display_name_en":"Raam","display_name_he":"רע״ם","expected_seats":3.6554666143981622,"forecast_date":"2026-09-26","group_id":"ARAB_LISTS","headline_seats":5,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-26T23:59:59+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.6333775035179483,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.3666224964820517,"p_represented":0.6333775035179483,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_raam","raw_b5_point_pp":3.9757278720231377,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":7.0,"seat_range_display":"0, 4–8","seat_range_high":8,"seat_range_low":4,"seat_range_mode":"ZERO_SEPARATED_CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"RETROSPECTIVE_CAUSAL_RECONSTRUCTION_NOT_ORIGINALLY_ISSUED","vote_mean_pp":3.8365875332499586,"vote_q10_pp":2.14843469008221,"vote_q2_5_pp":1.5677113199149646,"vote_q90_pp":5.67285524924135,"vote_q97_5_pp":7.046004542489753,"zero_seat_probability":0.3666224964820517},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":5.707726806702635,"contest_party_id":"HADASH_TAAL_BALAD","display_name_en":"Joint List","display_name_he":"הרשימה המשותפת","expected_seats":7.252393361258791,"forecast_date":"2026-09-26","group_id":"ARAB_LISTS","headline_seats":7,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-26T23:59:59+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.9782342583302923,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.021765741669707635,"p_represented":0.9782342583302924,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_joint_list","raw_b5_point_pp":5.809121253862339,"seat_q10":5.0,"seat_q90":10.0,"seat_range_display":"5–10","seat_range_high":10,"seat_range_low":5,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"RETROSPECTIVE_CAUSAL_RECONSTRUCTION_NOT_ORIGINALLY_ISSUED","vote_mean_pp":5.731523214207398,"vote_q10_pp":3.9667564474933634,"vote_q2_5_pp":3.317802168539265,"vote_q90_pp":7.624542824804124,"vote_q97_5_pp":8.994843551966452,"zero_seat_probability":0.021765741669707635},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":1.1177682442030867,"contest_party_id":"BLUE_WHITE","display_name_en":"Blue and White","display_name_he":"כחול לבן","expected_seats":0.060579492358924104,"forecast_date":"2026-09-26","group_id":"UNCOMMITTED","headline_seats":0,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-26T23:59:59+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.010508975153984301,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.9894910248460157,"p_represented":0.010508975153984322,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_blue_white","raw_b5_point_pp":1.1376247469776333,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":0.0,"seat_range_display":"0","seat_range_high":null,"seat_range_low":null,"seat_range_mode":"ZERO_ONLY_RARE_REPRESENTATION","snapshot_status":"RETROSPECTIVE_CAUSAL_RECONSTRUCTION_NOT_ORIGINALLY_ISSUED","vote_mean_pp":0.9891873459935321,"vote_q10_pp":0.274477088128501,"vote_q2_5_pp":0.15619520595671865,"vote_q90_pp":2.0197987467912086,"vote_q97_5_pp":2.8847147211120645,"zero_seat_probability":0.9894910248460157},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":2.4804560883491265,"contest_party_id":"K26_NATIVE_LIST::RESERVISTS_AND_NEW_ECONOMIC_PARTY","display_name_en":"Reservists–Economic","display_name_he":"המילואימניקים והכלכלית","expected_seats":0.9918051289729037,"forecast_date":"2026-09-26","group_id":"UNCOMMITTED","headline_seats":0,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-26T23:59:59+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.18223037919915197,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.817769620800848,"p_represented":0.18223037919915197,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_reservists_economic","raw_b5_point_pp":2.5245199481482214,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":5.0,"seat_range_display":"0, 4–7","seat_range_high":7,"seat_range_low":4,"seat_range_mode":"ZERO_SEPARATED_CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"RETROSPECTIVE_CAUSAL_RECONSTRUCTION_NOT_ORIGINALLY_ISSUED","vote_mean_pp":2.260691166757759,"vote_q10_pp":0.9269410402970997,"vote_q2_5_pp":0.6201556037219093,"vote_q90_pp":3.9904226310160396,"vote_q97_5_pp":5.4278288479876355,"zero_seat_probability":0.817769620800848},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":17.325179638512996,"contest_party_id":"LIKUD","display_name_en":"Likud","display_name_he":"הליכוד","expected_seats":23.28506,"forecast_date":"2026-09-27","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":24,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":1.0,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.0,"p_represented":1.0,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_likud","raw_b5_point_pp":17.646583309071026,"seat_q10":20.0,"seat_q90":27.0,"seat_range_display":"20–27","seat_range_high":27,"seat_range_low":20,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"CURRENT_PREVIEW_NOT_ISSUED","vote_mean_pp":17.325173307964743,"vote_q10_pp":14.796715582306557,"vote_q2_5_pp":13.603560395350723,"vote_q90_pp":19.981640983563963,"vote_q97_5_pp":21.58528771959144,"zero_seat_probability":0.0},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":5.674072203137139,"contest_party_id":"SHAS","display_name_en":"Shas","display_name_he":"ש״ס","expected_seats":7.16927,"forecast_date":"2026-09-27","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":7,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.96753,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.03247,"p_represented":0.96753,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_shas","raw_b5_point_pp":5.779333312756207,"seat_q10":5.0,"seat_q90":10.0,"seat_range_display":"5–10","seat_range_high":10,"seat_range_low":5,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"CURRENT_PREVIEW_NOT_ISSUED","vote_mean_pp":5.674084975382564,"vote_q10_pp":3.8289724862393264,"vote_q2_5_pp":3.142461747272143,"vote_q90_pp":7.781031294879466,"vote_q97_5_pp":9.329457827520889,"zero_seat_probability":0.03247},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":5.9112369834026435,"contest_party_id":"UNITED_TORAH_JUDAISM","display_name_en":"United Torah Judaism","display_name_he":"יהדות התורה","expected_seats":7.54476,"forecast_date":"2026-09-27","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":8,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.9818,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.0182,"p_represented":0.9818,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_utj","raw_b5_point_pp":6.020897795217872,"seat_q10":5.0,"seat_q90":11.0,"seat_range_display":"5–11","seat_range_high":11,"seat_range_low":5,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"CURRENT_PREVIEW_NOT_ISSUED","vote_mean_pp":5.911227441725971,"vote_q10_pp":4.0480611906335895,"vote_q2_5_pp":3.3658401706609524,"vote_q90_pp":8.01806136705947,"vote_q97_5_pp":9.580307047138989,"zero_seat_probability":0.0182},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":6.148316043002528,"contest_party_id":"OTZMA_YEHUDIT","display_name_en":"Otzma Yehudit","display_name_he":"עוצמה יהודית","expected_seats":7.88091,"forecast_date":"2026-09-27","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":8,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.98348,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.01652,"p_represented":0.98348,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_otzma","raw_b5_point_pp":6.262374966788755,"seat_q10":5.0,"seat_q90":11.0,"seat_range_display":"5–11","seat_range_high":11,"seat_range_low":5,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"CURRENT_PREVIEW_NOT_ISSUED","vote_mean_pp":6.148328048633901,"vote_q10_pp":4.1494678776025875,"vote_q2_5_pp":3.414305548408892,"vote_q90_pp":8.409695303715944,"vote_q97_5_pp":10.081371925370558,"zero_seat_probability":0.01652},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":4.6553497364986365,"contest_party_id":"K26_NATIVE_LIST::RZP_AND_ZEHUT","display_name_en":"Religious Zionism–Zehut","display_name_he":"הציונות הדתית וזהות","expected_seats":5.27251,"forecast_date":"2026-09-27","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":6,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.81855,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.18145,"p_represented":0.81855,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_religious_zionism_zehut","raw_b5_point_pp":4.741712274969288,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":9.0,"seat_range_display":"4–9","seat_range_high":9,"seat_range_low":4,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"CURRENT_PREVIEW_NOT_ISSUED","vote_mean_pp":4.655386207336836,"vote_q10_pp":2.8611213130516364,"vote_q2_5_pp":2.2611232111464905,"vote_q90_pp":6.754395677929883,"vote_q97_5_pp":8.414151712358068,"zero_seat_probability":0.18145},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":3.1153946705796183,"contest_party_id":"WINTER_NEW_PARTY","display_name_en":"Amcha Yisrael","display_name_he":"עמך ישראל","expected_seats":2.18085,"forecast_date":"2026-09-27","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":0,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.37575000000000003,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.62425,"p_represented":0.37575,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_amcha_yisrael","raw_b5_point_pp":3.1731891236965937,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":6.0,"seat_range_display":"0, 4–8","seat_range_high":8,"seat_range_low":4,"seat_range_mode":"ZERO_SEPARATED_CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"CURRENT_PREVIEW_NOT_ISSUED","vote_mean_pp":3.115327017709981,"vote_q10_pp":1.5169048974760462,"vote_q2_5_pp":1.090896297620247,"vote_q90_pp":5.103574452916167,"vote_q97_5_pp":6.979160662595479,"zero_seat_probability":0.62425},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":0.5926263449995827,"contest_party_id":"K26_NATIVE_LIST::HAREDI_PUBLIC","display_name_en":"Haredi Public","display_name_he":"הציבור החרדי","expected_seats":0.07925,"forecast_date":"2026-09-27","group_id":"UNCOMMITTED","headline_seats":0,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.013090000000000046,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.98691,"p_represented":0.01309,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_haredi_public","raw_b5_point_pp":0.6036203021490281,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":0.0,"seat_range_display":"0","seat_range_high":null,"seat_range_low":null,"seat_range_mode":"ZERO_ONLY_RARE_REPRESENTATION","snapshot_status":"CURRENT_PREVIEW_NOT_ISSUED","vote_mean_pp":0.592605293792361,"vote_q10_pp":0.10072094658158867,"vote_q2_5_pp":0.05042000268773889,"vote_q90_pp":1.2955372853365035,"vote_q97_5_pp":2.519195376949943,"zero_seat_probability":0.98691},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":9.496255939717082,"contest_party_id":"K26_NATIVE_LIST::BEYAHAD_BENNETT","display_name_en":"Beyachad","display_name_he":"ביחד","expected_seats":12.53778,"forecast_date":"2026-09-27","group_id":"CHANGE_CORE","headline_seats":13,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":1.0,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.0,"p_represented":1.0,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_beyachad","raw_b5_point_pp":9.672423320331067,"seat_q10":9.0,"seat_q90":16.0,"seat_range_display":"9–16","seat_range_high":16,"seat_range_low":9,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"CURRENT_PREVIEW_NOT_ISSUED","vote_mean_pp":9.496272268580432,"vote_q10_pp":7.2115450713228935,"vote_q2_5_pp":6.277986122092879,"vote_q90_pp":11.989490272504616,"vote_q97_5_pp":13.642779514742609,"zero_seat_probability":0.0},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":17.11954298996529,"contest_party_id":"YASHAR_GADI_EISENKOT","display_name_en":"Yashar!","display_name_he":"ישר!","expected_seats":23.00366,"forecast_date":"2026-09-27","group_id":"CHANGE_CORE","headline_seats":23,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":1.0,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.0,"p_represented":1.0,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_yashar","raw_b5_point_pp":17.437131844456562,"seat_q10":19.0,"seat_q90":27.0,"seat_range_display":"19–27","seat_range_high":27,"seat_range_low":19,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"CURRENT_PREVIEW_NOT_ISSUED","vote_mean_pp":17.11960086957865,"vote_q10_pp":14.52194039387229,"vote_q2_5_pp":13.332442458604476,"vote_q90_pp":19.858999809171227,"vote_q97_5_pp":21.502748655079962,"zero_seat_probability":0.0},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":6.636587551468527,"contest_party_id":"YISRAEL_BEITEINU","display_name_en":"Yisrael Beiteinu","display_name_he":"ישראל ביתנו","expected_seats":8.59224,"forecast_date":"2026-09-27","group_id":"CHANGE_CORE","headline_seats":9,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.9946,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.0054,"p_represented":0.9946,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_yisrael_beiteinu","raw_b5_point_pp":6.759704520153811,"seat_q10":6.0,"seat_q90":12.0,"seat_range_display":"6–12","seat_range_high":12,"seat_range_low":6,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"CURRENT_PREVIEW_NOT_ISSUED","vote_mean_pp":6.636644065855116,"vote_q10_pp":4.589523445290253,"vote_q2_5_pp":3.826544119422692,"vote_q90_pp":8.945218995555166,"vote_q97_5_pp":10.61299834805248,"zero_seat_probability":0.0054},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":7.5500847560611195,"contest_party_id":"THE_DEMOCRATS","display_name_en":"The Democrats","display_name_he":"הדמוקרטים","expected_seats":9.86524,"forecast_date":"2026-09-27","group_id":"CHANGE_CORE","headline_seats":10,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.99966,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.00034,"p_represented":0.99966,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_democrats","raw_b5_point_pp":7.690148236166573,"seat_q10":7.0,"seat_q90":13.0,"seat_range_display":"7–13","seat_range_high":13,"seat_range_low":7,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"CURRENT_PREVIEW_NOT_ISSUED","vote_mean_pp":7.550045917305958,"vote_q10_pp":5.394514107043888,"vote_q2_5_pp":4.57985794764941,"vote_q90_pp":9.965627859570018,"vote_q97_5_pp":11.674809367076177,"zero_seat_probability":0.00034},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":3.9503053370669323,"contest_party_id":"RAAM","display_name_en":"Raam","display_name_he":"רע״ם","expected_seats":3.76248,"forecast_date":"2026-09-27","group_id":"ARAB_LISTS","headline_seats":5,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.6231800000000001,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.37682,"p_represented":0.62318,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_raam","raw_b5_point_pp":4.023588423398455,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":8.0,"seat_range_display":"0, 4–9","seat_range_high":9,"seat_range_low":4,"seat_range_mode":"ZERO_SEPARATED_CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"CURRENT_PREVIEW_NOT_ISSUED","vote_mean_pp":3.9503128531744243,"vote_q10_pp":2.2286725689273514,"vote_q2_5_pp":1.7022889308288998,"vote_q90_pp":6.034527921869215,"vote_q97_5_pp":7.75900297906941,"zero_seat_probability":0.37682},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":5.64224365367504,"contest_party_id":"HADASH_TAAL_BALAD","display_name_en":"Joint List","display_name_he":"הרשימה המשותפת","expected_seats":7.11049,"forecast_date":"2026-09-27","group_id":"ARAB_LISTS","headline_seats":7,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.96373,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.03627,"p_represented":0.96373,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_joint_list","raw_b5_point_pp":5.746914304041212,"seat_q10":5.0,"seat_q90":10.0,"seat_range_display":"5–10","seat_range_high":10,"seat_range_low":5,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"CURRENT_PREVIEW_NOT_ISSUED","vote_mean_pp":5.6422819420790855,"vote_q10_pp":3.764027177016376,"vote_q2_5_pp":3.0975093102393485,"vote_q90_pp":7.780298095085549,"vote_q97_5_pp":9.358949648609798,"zero_seat_probability":0.03627},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":1.2207565749966993,"contest_party_id":"BLUE_WHITE","display_name_en":"Blue and White","display_name_he":"כחול לבן","expected_seats":0.27917,"forecast_date":"2026-09-27","group_id":"UNCOMMITTED","headline_seats":0,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.04803000000000002,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.95197,"p_represented":0.04803,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_blue_white","raw_b5_point_pp":1.2434031306023683,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":0.0,"seat_range_display":"0","seat_range_high":null,"seat_range_low":null,"seat_range_mode":"ZERO_ONLY_RARE_REPRESENTATION","snapshot_status":"CURRENT_PREVIEW_NOT_ISSUED","vote_mean_pp":1.2207562589446646,"vote_q10_pp":0.3399276271643809,"vote_q2_5_pp":0.20038733068921716,"vote_q90_pp":2.429757184334332,"vote_q97_5_pp":4.045529500233129,"zero_seat_probability":0.95197},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":2.562047576916164,"contest_party_id":"K26_NATIVE_LIST::RESERVISTS_AND_NEW_ECONOMIC_PARTY","display_name_en":"Reservists–Economic","display_name_he":"המילואימניקים והכלכלית","expected_seats":1.43633,"forecast_date":"2026-09-27","group_id":"UNCOMMITTED","headline_seats":0,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.24395999999999995,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.75604,"p_represented":0.24396,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_reservists_economic","raw_b5_point_pp":2.609576751940397,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":6.0,"seat_range_display":"0, 4–9","seat_range_high":9,"seat_range_low":4,"seat_range_mode":"ZERO_SEPARATED_CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"CURRENT_PREVIEW_NOT_ISSUED","vote_mean_pp":2.5619535319353126,"vote_q10_pp":1.0469251253131615,"vote_q2_5_pp":0.7041189989067187,"vote_q90_pp":4.519002890744127,"vote_q97_5_pp":6.588293284743128,"zero_seat_probability":0.75604},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":17.325179638512996,"contest_party_id":"LIKUD","display_name_en":"Likud","display_name_he":"הליכוד","expected_seats":23.65295179475376,"forecast_date":"2026-09-27","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":24,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":1.0,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.0,"p_represented":1.0,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_likud","raw_b5_point_pp":17.646583309071026,"seat_q10":20.0,"seat_q90":27.0,"seat_range_display":"20–27","seat_range_high":27,"seat_range_low":20,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"CURRENT_PREVIEW_NOT_ISSUED","vote_mean_pp":17.646677702525754,"vote_q10_pp":15.165256733202787,"vote_q2_5_pp":13.987835530653442,"vote_q90_pp":20.234771242954007,"vote_q97_5_pp":21.746323565646488,"zero_seat_probability":0.0},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":5.674072203137139,"contest_party_id":"SHAS","display_name_en":"Shas","display_name_he":"ש״ס","expected_seats":7.571531732476018,"forecast_date":"2026-09-27","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":8,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.9890505678347199,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.010949432165280049,"p_represented":0.98905056783472,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_shas","raw_b5_point_pp":5.779333312756207,"seat_q10":5.0,"seat_q90":10.0,"seat_range_display":"5–10","seat_range_high":10,"seat_range_low":5,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"CURRENT_PREVIEW_NOT_ISSUED","vote_mean_pp":5.922131705686603,"vote_q10_pp":4.196525730429973,"vote_q2_5_pp":3.53353620802292,"vote_q90_pp":7.8195759961278135,"vote_q97_5_pp":9.085734130778215,"zero_seat_probability":0.010949432165280049},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":5.9112369834026435,"contest_party_id":"UNITED_TORAH_JUDAISM","display_name_en":"United Torah Judaism","display_name_he":"יהדות התורה","expected_seats":7.554531860193192,"forecast_date":"2026-09-27","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":8,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.9931219025052714,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.006878097494728611,"p_represented":0.9931219025052714,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_utj","raw_b5_point_pp":6.020897795217872,"seat_q10":5.0,"seat_q90":10.0,"seat_range_display":"5–10","seat_range_high":10,"seat_range_low":5,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"CURRENT_PREVIEW_NOT_ISSUED","vote_mean_pp":5.90491973682956,"vote_q10_pp":4.297015179232351,"vote_q2_5_pp":3.6654628652438657,"vote_q90_pp":7.650185405553955,"vote_q97_5_pp":8.81277247309977,"zero_seat_probability":0.006878097494728611},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":6.148316043002528,"contest_party_id":"OTZMA_YEHUDIT","display_name_en":"Otzma Yehudit","display_name_he":"עוצמה יהודית","expected_seats":7.85990332971118,"forecast_date":"2026-09-27","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":8,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.9939405666661593,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.006059433333840724,"p_represented":0.9939405666661593,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_otzma","raw_b5_point_pp":6.262374966788755,"seat_q10":6.0,"seat_q90":10.0,"seat_range_display":"6–10","seat_range_high":10,"seat_range_low":6,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"CURRENT_PREVIEW_NOT_ISSUED","vote_mean_pp":6.123232694042145,"vote_q10_pp":4.428065944326965,"vote_q2_5_pp":3.7424170430316006,"vote_q90_pp":7.949991522984966,"vote_q97_5_pp":9.222382279323938,"zero_seat_probability":0.006059433333840724},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":4.6553497364986365,"contest_party_id":"K26_NATIVE_LIST::RZP_AND_ZEHUT","display_name_en":"Religious Zionism–Zehut","display_name_he":"הציונות הדתית וזהות","expected_seats":5.602142377989045,"forecast_date":"2026-09-27","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":6,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.8853353088665028,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.1146646911334972,"p_represented":0.8853353088665029,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_religious_zionism_zehut","raw_b5_point_pp":4.741712274969288,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":8.0,"seat_range_display":"4–9","seat_range_high":9,"seat_range_low":4,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"CURRENT_PREVIEW_NOT_ISSUED","vote_mean_pp":4.743694284150553,"vote_q10_pp":3.155198830402238,"vote_q2_5_pp":2.434271286418637,"vote_q90_pp":6.498355050124262,"vote_q97_5_pp":7.744094230766337,"zero_seat_probability":0.1146646911334972},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":3.1153946705796183,"contest_party_id":"WINTER_NEW_PARTY","display_name_en":"Amcha Yisrael","display_name_he":"עמך ישראל","expected_seats":1.859583060016118,"forecast_date":"2026-09-27","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":0,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.34388901620521306,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.6561109837947869,"p_represented":0.34388901620521317,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_amcha_yisrael","raw_b5_point_pp":3.1731891236965937,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":6.0,"seat_range_display":"0, 4–7","seat_range_high":7,"seat_range_low":4,"seat_range_mode":"ZERO_SEPARATED_CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"CURRENT_PREVIEW_NOT_ISSUED","vote_mean_pp":2.9477342077485917,"vote_q10_pp":1.5070416572644543,"vote_q2_5_pp":1.084182371840826,"vote_q90_pp":4.673462978769833,"vote_q97_5_pp":5.988134664061947,"zero_seat_probability":0.6561109837947869},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":0.5926263449995827,"contest_party_id":"K26_NATIVE_LIST::HAREDI_PUBLIC","display_name_en":"Haredi Public","display_name_he":"הציבור החרדי","expected_seats":0.018091982862030384,"forecast_date":"2026-09-27","group_id":"UNCOMMITTED","headline_seats":0,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.0030641337228927146,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.9969358662771073,"p_represented":0.003064133722892731,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_haredi_public","raw_b5_point_pp":0.6036203021490281,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":0.0,"seat_range_display":"0","seat_range_high":null,"seat_range_low":null,"seat_range_mode":"ZERO_ONLY_RARE_REPRESENTATION","snapshot_status":"CURRENT_PREVIEW_NOT_ISSUED","vote_mean_pp":0.5456907354028337,"vote_q10_pp":0.09989990284147134,"vote_q2_5_pp":0.05012479425265978,"vote_q90_pp":1.2214529496889974,"vote_q97_5_pp":2.1665657903051945,"zero_seat_probability":0.9969358662771073},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":9.496255939717082,"contest_party_id":"K26_NATIVE_LIST::BEYAHAD_BENNETT","display_name_en":"Beyachad","display_name_he":"ביחד","expected_seats":12.503843005698362,"forecast_date":"2026-09-27","group_id":"CHANGE_CORE","headline_seats":13,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":1.0,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.0,"p_represented":1.0,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_beyachad","raw_b5_point_pp":9.672423320331067,"seat_q10":10.0,"seat_q90":16.0,"seat_range_display":"10–16","seat_range_high":16,"seat_range_low":10,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"CURRENT_PREVIEW_NOT_ISSUED","vote_mean_pp":9.502487791913499,"vote_q10_pp":7.387094476016082,"vote_q2_5_pp":6.475925678847674,"vote_q90_pp":11.773236135196024,"vote_q97_5_pp":13.181855008240152,"zero_seat_probability":0.0},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":17.11954298996529,"contest_party_id":"YASHAR_GADI_EISENKOT","display_name_en":"Yashar!","display_name_he":"ישר!","expected_seats":23.11015088620201,"forecast_date":"2026-09-27","group_id":"CHANGE_CORE","headline_seats":23,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":1.0,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.0,"p_represented":1.0,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_yashar","raw_b5_point_pp":17.437131844456562,"seat_q10":20.0,"seat_q90":26.0,"seat_range_display":"20–26","seat_range_high":26,"seat_range_low":20,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"CURRENT_PREVIEW_NOT_ISSUED","vote_mean_pp":17.254090159915478,"vote_q10_pp":15.037875467991475,"vote_q2_5_pp":13.968031662279792,"vote_q90_pp":19.565605112175277,"vote_q97_5_pp":20.964225655875374,"zero_seat_probability":0.0},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":6.636587551468527,"contest_party_id":"YISRAEL_BEITEINU","display_name_en":"Yisrael Beiteinu","display_name_he":"ישראל ביתנו","expected_seats":8.347304577829647,"forecast_date":"2026-09-27","group_id":"CHANGE_CORE","headline_seats":8,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.9982434519272919,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.0017565480727080576,"p_represented":0.998243451927292,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_yisrael_beiteinu","raw_b5_point_pp":6.759704520153811,"seat_q10":6.0,"seat_q90":11.0,"seat_range_display":"6–11","seat_range_high":11,"seat_range_low":6,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"CURRENT_PREVIEW_NOT_ISSUED","vote_mean_pp":6.472146146467161,"vote_q10_pp":4.756223929992179,"vote_q2_5_pp":4.047305645277944,"vote_q90_pp":8.325610313672692,"vote_q97_5_pp":9.63796502396616,"zero_seat_probability":0.0017565480727080576},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":7.5500847560611195,"contest_party_id":"THE_DEMOCRATS","display_name_en":"The Democrats","display_name_he":"הדמוקרטים","expected_seats":9.73223215918345,"forecast_date":"2026-09-27","group_id":"CHANGE_CORE","headline_seats":10,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.9999390449062397,"p_below_legal_threshold":6.095509376022402e-05,"p_represented":0.9999390449062399,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_democrats","raw_b5_point_pp":7.690148236166573,"seat_q10":7.0,"seat_q90":12.0,"seat_range_display":"7–12","seat_range_high":12,"seat_range_low":7,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"CURRENT_PREVIEW_NOT_ISSUED","vote_mean_pp":7.477264313784265,"vote_q10_pp":5.676789755505154,"vote_q2_5_pp":4.91238267979745,"vote_q90_pp":9.401034180581012,"vote_q97_5_pp":10.778737330794193,"zero_seat_probability":6.095509376022402e-05},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":3.9503053370669323,"contest_party_id":"RAAM","display_name_en":"Raam","display_name_he":"רע״ם","expected_seats":3.8498387301147323,"forecast_date":"2026-09-27","group_id":"ARAB_LISTS","headline_seats":5,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.6713842312113174,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.32861576878868254,"p_represented":0.6713842312113176,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_raam","raw_b5_point_pp":4.023588423398455,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":7.0,"seat_range_display":"0, 4–8","seat_range_high":8,"seat_range_low":4,"seat_range_mode":"ZERO_SEPARATED_CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"CURRENT_PREVIEW_NOT_ISSUED","vote_mean_pp":3.91972457364035,"vote_q10_pp":2.3013388929641865,"vote_q2_5_pp":1.744295483765023,"vote_q90_pp":5.663304729246221,"vote_q97_5_pp":6.911704912540339,"zero_seat_probability":0.32861576878868254},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":5.64224365367504,"contest_party_id":"HADASH_TAAL_BALAD","display_name_en":"Joint List","display_name_he":"הרשימה המשותפת","expected_seats":7.2322213560990125,"forecast_date":"2026-09-27","group_id":"ARAB_LISTS","headline_seats":7,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.9852177526951947,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.014782247304805209,"p_represented":0.985217752695195,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_joint_list","raw_b5_point_pp":5.746914304041212,"seat_q10":5.0,"seat_q90":10.0,"seat_range_display":"5–10","seat_range_high":10,"seat_range_low":5,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"CURRENT_PREVIEW_NOT_ISSUED","vote_mean_pp":5.689103944196029,"vote_q10_pp":4.042603997095824,"vote_q2_5_pp":3.424587494256638,"vote_q90_pp":7.462347111034926,"vote_q97_5_pp":8.676251313618469,"zero_seat_probability":0.014782247304805209},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":1.2207565749966993,"contest_party_id":"BLUE_WHITE","display_name_en":"Blue and White","display_name_he":"כחול לבן","expected_seats":0.0710884193735303,"forecast_date":"2026-09-27","group_id":"UNCOMMITTED","headline_seats":0,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.012276352146003755,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.9877236478539962,"p_represented":0.01227635214600381,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_blue_white","raw_b5_point_pp":1.2434031306023683,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":0.0,"seat_range_display":"0","seat_range_high":null,"seat_range_low":null,"seat_range_mode":"ZERO_ONLY_RARE_REPRESENTATION","snapshot_status":"CURRENT_PREVIEW_NOT_ISSUED","vote_mean_pp":1.0969223345113002,"vote_q10_pp":0.3364222931148149,"vote_q2_5_pp":0.19929135567483222,"vote_q90_pp":2.148438411914346,"vote_q97_5_pp":2.980277615777823,"zero_seat_probability":0.9877236478539962},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":2.562047576916164,"contest_party_id":"K26_NATIVE_LIST::RESERVISTS_AND_NEW_ECONOMIC_PARTY","display_name_en":"Reservists–Economic","display_name_he":"המילואימניקים והכלכלית","expected_seats":1.0345847274979247,"forecast_date":"2026-09-27","group_id":"UNCOMMITTED","headline_seats":0,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.19330970041670903,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.806690299583291,"p_represented":0.19330970041670906,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_reservists_economic","raw_b5_point_pp":2.609576751940397,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":5.0,"seat_range_display":"0, 4–7","seat_range_high":7,"seat_range_low":4,"seat_range_mode":"ZERO_SEPARATED_CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"CURRENT_PREVIEW_NOT_ISSUED","vote_mean_pp":2.3541796691858834,"vote_q10_pp":1.0334602072067385,"vote_q2_5_pp":0.7027846970598226,"vote_q90_pp":4.000831912594147,"vote_q97_5_pp":5.3813328535820935,"zero_seat_probability":0.806690299583291},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":17.325179638512996,"contest_party_id":"LIKUD","display_name_en":"Likud","display_name_he":"הליכוד","expected_seats":23.28675,"forecast_date":"2026-09-28","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":24,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":1.0,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.0,"p_represented":1.0,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_likud","raw_b5_point_pp":17.646583309071026,"seat_q10":20.0,"seat_q90":27.0,"seat_range_display":"20–27","seat_range_high":27,"seat_range_low":20,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":17.325232283466093,"vote_q10_pp":14.802978189783598,"vote_q2_5_pp":13.624102510932463,"vote_q90_pp":19.981881348908924,"vote_q97_5_pp":21.576147387786538,"zero_seat_probability":0.0},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":5.674072203137139,"contest_party_id":"SHAS","display_name_en":"Shas","display_name_he":"ש״ס","expected_seats":7.1658,"forecast_date":"2026-09-28","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":7,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.96665,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.03335,"p_represented":0.96665,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_shas","raw_b5_point_pp":5.779333312756207,"seat_q10":5.0,"seat_q90":10.0,"seat_range_display":"5–10","seat_range_high":10,"seat_range_low":5,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":5.674083346447223,"vote_q10_pp":3.8224819078704106,"vote_q2_5_pp":3.1365189518701073,"vote_q90_pp":7.7804512163025645,"vote_q97_5_pp":9.412049941335146,"zero_seat_probability":0.03335},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":5.9112369834026435,"contest_party_id":"UNITED_TORAH_JUDAISM","display_name_en":"United Torah Judaism","display_name_he":"יהדות התורה","expected_seats":7.5481,"forecast_date":"2026-09-28","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":8,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.9812,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.0188,"p_represented":0.9812,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_utj","raw_b5_point_pp":6.020897795217872,"seat_q10":5.0,"seat_q90":11.0,"seat_range_display":"5–11","seat_range_high":11,"seat_range_low":5,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":5.911293479522552,"vote_q10_pp":4.039654046435538,"vote_q2_5_pp":3.3574649609780267,"vote_q90_pp":8.011979140211714,"vote_q97_5_pp":9.561865198000367,"zero_seat_probability":0.0188},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":6.148316043002528,"contest_party_id":"OTZMA_YEHUDIT","display_name_en":"Otzma Yehudit","display_name_he":"עוצמה יהודית","expected_seats":7.87785,"forecast_date":"2026-09-28","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":8,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.98275,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.01725,"p_represented":0.98275,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_otzma","raw_b5_point_pp":6.262374966788755,"seat_q10":5.0,"seat_q90":11.0,"seat_range_display":"5–11","seat_range_high":11,"seat_range_low":5,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":6.148241331253209,"vote_q10_pp":4.1665481280226855,"vote_q2_5_pp":3.3947114778609655,"vote_q90_pp":8.42321782195312,"vote_q97_5_pp":10.021727480481871,"zero_seat_probability":0.01725},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":4.6553497364986365,"contest_party_id":"K26_NATIVE_LIST::RZP_AND_ZEHUT","display_name_en":"Religious Zionism–Zehut","display_name_he":"הציונות הדתית וזהות","expected_seats":5.2641,"forecast_date":"2026-09-28","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":6,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.81665,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.18335,"p_represented":0.81665,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_religious_zionism_zehut","raw_b5_point_pp":4.741712274969288,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":9.0,"seat_range_display":"4–9","seat_range_high":9,"seat_range_low":4,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":4.655294668669035,"vote_q10_pp":2.8636702416519446,"vote_q2_5_pp":2.2802791724030724,"vote_q90_pp":6.778486468597064,"vote_q97_5_pp":8.430864225259205,"zero_seat_probability":0.18335},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":3.1153946705796183,"contest_party_id":"WINTER_NEW_PARTY","display_name_en":"Amcha Yisrael","display_name_he":"עמך ישראל","expected_seats":2.17975,"forecast_date":"2026-09-28","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":0,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.3761,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.6239,"p_represented":0.3761,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_amcha_yisrael","raw_b5_point_pp":3.1731891236965937,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":6.0,"seat_range_display":"0, 4–8","seat_range_high":8,"seat_range_low":4,"seat_range_mode":"ZERO_SEPARATED_CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":3.115513708381108,"vote_q10_pp":1.5153046339970442,"vote_q2_5_pp":1.0994422328002065,"vote_q90_pp":5.092514222953694,"vote_q97_5_pp":6.960406340312792,"zero_seat_probability":0.6239},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":0.5926263449995827,"contest_party_id":"K26_NATIVE_LIST::HAREDI_PUBLIC","display_name_en":"Haredi Public","display_name_he":"הציבור החרדי","expected_seats":0.08165,"forecast_date":"2026-09-28","group_id":"UNCOMMITTED","headline_seats":0,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.013249999999999984,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.98675,"p_represented":0.01325,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_haredi_public","raw_b5_point_pp":0.6036203021490281,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":0.0,"seat_range_display":"0","seat_range_high":null,"seat_range_low":null,"seat_range_mode":"ZERO_ONLY_RARE_REPRESENTATION","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":0.5927003138029792,"vote_q10_pp":0.10063473014771052,"vote_q2_5_pp":0.04992702228986832,"vote_q90_pp":1.2875634121945438,"vote_q97_5_pp":2.5129798703042243,"zero_seat_probability":0.98675},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":9.496255939717082,"contest_party_id":"K26_NATIVE_LIST::BEYAHAD_BENNETT","display_name_en":"Beyachad","display_name_he":"ביחד","expected_seats":12.5372,"forecast_date":"2026-09-28","group_id":"CHANGE_CORE","headline_seats":13,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":1.0,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.0,"p_represented":1.0,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_beyachad","raw_b5_point_pp":9.672423320331067,"seat_q10":9.0,"seat_q90":16.0,"seat_range_display":"9–16","seat_range_high":16,"seat_range_low":9,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":9.496135066278097,"vote_q10_pp":7.207402259108679,"vote_q2_5_pp":6.2287375176843,"vote_q90_pp":12.006539041280258,"vote_q97_5_pp":13.652797346580174,"zero_seat_probability":0.0},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":17.11954298996529,"contest_party_id":"YASHAR_GADI_EISENKOT","display_name_en":"Yashar!","display_name_he":"ישר!","expected_seats":23.0088,"forecast_date":"2026-09-28","group_id":"CHANGE_CORE","headline_seats":23,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":1.0,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.0,"p_represented":1.0,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_yashar","raw_b5_point_pp":17.437131844456562,"seat_q10":19.0,"seat_q90":27.0,"seat_range_display":"19–27","seat_range_high":27,"seat_range_low":19,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":17.119436507423607,"vote_q10_pp":14.484048907151443,"vote_q2_5_pp":13.316019015929017,"vote_q90_pp":19.851086491321954,"vote_q97_5_pp":21.409579800850448,"zero_seat_probability":0.0},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":6.636587551468527,"contest_party_id":"YISRAEL_BEITEINU","display_name_en":"Yisrael Beiteinu","display_name_he":"ישראל ביתנו","expected_seats":8.5941,"forecast_date":"2026-09-28","group_id":"CHANGE_CORE","headline_seats":9,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.9952,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.0048,"p_represented":0.9952,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_yisrael_beiteinu","raw_b5_point_pp":6.759704520153811,"seat_q10":6.0,"seat_q90":12.0,"seat_range_display":"6–12","seat_range_high":12,"seat_range_low":6,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":6.636485381928886,"vote_q10_pp":4.577252925972521,"vote_q2_5_pp":3.8363772379634717,"vote_q90_pp":8.934104893817889,"vote_q97_5_pp":10.548473719738169,"zero_seat_probability":0.0048},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":7.5500847560611195,"contest_party_id":"THE_DEMOCRATS","display_name_en":"The Democrats","display_name_he":"הדמוקרטים","expected_seats":9.8647,"forecast_date":"2026-09-28","group_id":"CHANGE_CORE","headline_seats":10,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.9992,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.0008,"p_represented":0.9992,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_democrats","raw_b5_point_pp":7.690148236166573,"seat_q10":7.0,"seat_q90":13.0,"seat_range_display":"7–13","seat_range_high":13,"seat_range_low":7,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":7.550159458983796,"vote_q10_pp":5.374131784217982,"vote_q2_5_pp":4.532042069475776,"vote_q90_pp":9.995091444326588,"vote_q97_5_pp":11.651517782652707,"zero_seat_probability":0.0008},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":3.9503053370669323,"contest_party_id":"RAAM","display_name_en":"Raam","display_name_he":"רע״ם","expected_seats":3.75625,"forecast_date":"2026-09-28","group_id":"ARAB_LISTS","headline_seats":5,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.6234999999999999,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.3765,"p_represented":0.6235,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_raam","raw_b5_point_pp":4.023588423398455,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":8.0,"seat_range_display":"0, 4–8","seat_range_high":8,"seat_range_low":4,"seat_range_mode":"ZERO_SEPARATED_CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":3.950250482539364,"vote_q10_pp":2.239087913591432,"vote_q2_5_pp":1.7365378824832056,"vote_q90_pp":5.980338028755099,"vote_q97_5_pp":7.78347392830218,"zero_seat_probability":0.3765},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":5.64224365367504,"contest_party_id":"HADASH_TAAL_BALAD","display_name_en":"Joint List","display_name_he":"הרשימה המשותפת","expected_seats":7.1142,"forecast_date":"2026-09-28","group_id":"ARAB_LISTS","headline_seats":7,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.96345,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.03655,"p_represented":0.96345,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_joint_list","raw_b5_point_pp":5.746914304041212,"seat_q10":5.0,"seat_q90":10.0,"seat_range_display":"5–10","seat_range_high":10,"seat_range_low":5,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":5.6423015289317995,"vote_q10_pp":3.7536363426854504,"vote_q2_5_pp":3.0854947160071764,"vote_q90_pp":7.733512076986629,"vote_q97_5_pp":9.378411401848245,"zero_seat_probability":0.03655},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":1.2207565749966993,"contest_party_id":"BLUE_WHITE","display_name_en":"Blue and White","display_name_he":"כחול לבן","expected_seats":0.2799,"forecast_date":"2026-09-28","group_id":"UNCOMMITTED","headline_seats":0,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.04795000000000005,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.95205,"p_represented":0.04795,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_blue_white","raw_b5_point_pp":1.2434031306023683,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":0.0,"seat_range_display":"0","seat_range_high":null,"seat_range_low":null,"seat_range_mode":"ZERO_ONLY_RARE_REPRESENTATION","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":1.2208854768824953,"vote_q10_pp":0.34150074604459246,"vote_q2_5_pp":0.20664448440348662,"vote_q90_pp":2.4187077858942447,"vote_q97_5_pp":4.011592165067229,"zero_seat_probability":0.95205},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":2.562047576916164,"contest_party_id":"K26_NATIVE_LIST::RESERVISTS_AND_NEW_ECONOMIC_PARTY","display_name_en":"Reservists–Economic","display_name_he":"המילואימניקים והכלכלית","expected_seats":1.44085,"forecast_date":"2026-09-28","group_id":"UNCOMMITTED","headline_seats":0,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.24360000000000004,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.7564,"p_represented":0.2436,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_reservists_economic","raw_b5_point_pp":2.609576751940397,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":6.0,"seat_range_display":"0, 4–9","seat_range_high":9,"seat_range_low":4,"seat_range_mode":"ZERO_SEPARATED_CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":2.5619869654897496,"vote_q10_pp":1.0536211600794787,"vote_q2_5_pp":0.6998075068639154,"vote_q90_pp":4.514000588940717,"vote_q97_5_pp":6.60548205419766,"zero_seat_probability":0.7564},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":17.325179638512996,"contest_party_id":"LIKUD","display_name_en":"Likud","display_name_he":"הליכוד","expected_seats":23.64291249494786,"forecast_date":"2026-09-28","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":24,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":1.0,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.0,"p_represented":1.0,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_likud","raw_b5_point_pp":17.646583309071026,"seat_q10":20.0,"seat_q90":27.0,"seat_range_display":"20–27","seat_range_high":27,"seat_range_low":20,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":17.63850312710114,"vote_q10_pp":15.157585981305372,"vote_q2_5_pp":13.993916539408719,"vote_q90_pp":20.19980368232258,"vote_q97_5_pp":21.747668184307077,"zero_seat_probability":0.0},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":5.674072203137139,"contest_party_id":"SHAS","display_name_en":"Shas","display_name_he":"ש״ס","expected_seats":7.578235157281832,"forecast_date":"2026-09-28","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":8,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.9885754939423043,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.011424506057695748,"p_represented":0.9885754939423044,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_shas","raw_b5_point_pp":5.779333312756207,"seat_q10":5.0,"seat_q90":10.0,"seat_range_display":"5–10","seat_range_high":10,"seat_range_low":5,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":5.928230387360697,"vote_q10_pp":4.1831496503044745,"vote_q2_5_pp":3.505630638659609,"vote_q90_pp":7.8417619335855235,"vote_q97_5_pp":9.139586766766472,"zero_seat_probability":0.011424506057695748},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":5.9112369834026435,"contest_party_id":"UNITED_TORAH_JUDAISM","display_name_en":"United Torah Judaism","display_name_he":"יהדות התורה","expected_seats":7.560584287047704,"forecast_date":"2026-09-28","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":8,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.9927754516534478,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.007224548346552223,"p_represented":0.9927754516534478,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_utj","raw_b5_point_pp":6.020897795217872,"seat_q10":5.0,"seat_q90":10.0,"seat_range_display":"5–10","seat_range_high":10,"seat_range_low":5,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":5.907069960933885,"vote_q10_pp":4.301484225619203,"vote_q2_5_pp":3.657035576578642,"vote_q90_pp":7.6636850538741745,"vote_q97_5_pp":8.823896086666059,"zero_seat_probability":0.007224548346552223},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":6.148316043002528,"contest_party_id":"OTZMA_YEHUDIT","display_name_en":"Otzma Yehudit","display_name_he":"עוצמה יהודית","expected_seats":7.844799557228108,"forecast_date":"2026-09-28","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":8,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.9936878036630787,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.0063121963369212695,"p_represented":0.9936878036630787,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_otzma","raw_b5_point_pp":6.262374966788755,"seat_q10":6.0,"seat_q90":10.0,"seat_range_display":"6–10","seat_range_high":10,"seat_range_low":6,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":6.112754808631323,"vote_q10_pp":4.444268409472262,"vote_q2_5_pp":3.7447013419594644,"vote_q90_pp":7.936331925388862,"vote_q97_5_pp":9.245094801871959,"zero_seat_probability":0.0063121963369212695},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":4.6553497364986365,"contest_party_id":"K26_NATIVE_LIST::RZP_AND_ZEHUT","display_name_en":"Religious Zionism–Zehut","display_name_he":"הציונות הדתית וזהות","expected_seats":5.600407273146871,"forecast_date":"2026-09-28","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":6,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.8840421264845538,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.11595787351544617,"p_represented":0.8840421264845539,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_religious_zionism_zehut","raw_b5_point_pp":4.741712274969288,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":8.0,"seat_range_display":"4–9","seat_range_high":9,"seat_range_low":4,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":4.7451111939552595,"vote_q10_pp":3.1520338930218283,"vote_q2_5_pp":2.450263080281588,"vote_q90_pp":6.537621495819447,"vote_q97_5_pp":7.696645475470677,"zero_seat_probability":0.11595787351544617},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":3.1153946705796183,"contest_party_id":"WINTER_NEW_PARTY","display_name_en":"Amcha Yisrael","display_name_he":"עמך ישראל","expected_seats":1.822107447146791,"forecast_date":"2026-09-28","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":0,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.3378423006484629,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.6621576993515371,"p_represented":0.3378423006484629,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_amcha_yisrael","raw_b5_point_pp":3.1731891236965937,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":6.0,"seat_range_display":"0, 4–7","seat_range_high":7,"seat_range_low":4,"seat_range_mode":"ZERO_SEPARATED_CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":2.933023971912305,"vote_q10_pp":1.5071957811711418,"vote_q2_5_pp":1.0997611829804599,"vote_q90_pp":4.631131960366481,"vote_q97_5_pp":5.9793437425611,"zero_seat_probability":0.6621576993515371},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":0.5926263449995827,"contest_party_id":"K26_NATIVE_LIST::HAREDI_PUBLIC","display_name_en":"Haredi Public","display_name_he":"הציבור החרדי","expected_seats":0.019040783530504757,"forecast_date":"2026-09-28","group_id":"UNCOMMITTED","headline_seats":0,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.0031243301351522312,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.9968756698648478,"p_represented":0.003124330135152294,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_haredi_public","raw_b5_point_pp":0.6036203021490281,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":0.0,"seat_range_display":"0","seat_range_high":null,"seat_range_low":null,"seat_range_mode":"ZERO_ONLY_RARE_REPRESENTATION","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":0.5405721247036892,"vote_q10_pp":0.09940658669847026,"vote_q2_5_pp":0.049929592079114446,"vote_q90_pp":1.212960072660513,"vote_q97_5_pp":2.1284921117382054,"zero_seat_probability":0.9968756698648478},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":9.496255939717082,"contest_party_id":"K26_NATIVE_LIST::BEYAHAD_BENNETT","display_name_en":"Beyachad","display_name_he":"ביחד","expected_seats":12.52301098679565,"forecast_date":"2026-09-28","group_id":"CHANGE_CORE","headline_seats":13,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":1.0,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.0,"p_represented":1.0,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_beyachad","raw_b5_point_pp":9.672423320331067,"seat_q10":10.0,"seat_q90":16.0,"seat_range_display":"10–16","seat_range_high":16,"seat_range_low":10,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":9.518913573399242,"vote_q10_pp":7.381783579016784,"vote_q2_5_pp":6.415918303638229,"vote_q90_pp":11.79335658523136,"vote_q97_5_pp":13.263651086620312,"zero_seat_probability":0.0},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":17.11954298996529,"contest_party_id":"YASHAR_GADI_EISENKOT","display_name_en":"Yashar!","display_name_he":"ישר!","expected_seats":23.104524663584364,"forecast_date":"2026-09-28","group_id":"CHANGE_CORE","headline_seats":23,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":1.0,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.0,"p_represented":1.0,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_yashar","raw_b5_point_pp":17.437131844456562,"seat_q10":20.0,"seat_q90":26.0,"seat_range_display":"20–26","seat_range_high":26,"seat_range_low":20,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":17.2497437185741,"vote_q10_pp":15.035478800144297,"vote_q2_5_pp":13.965975893541879,"vote_q90_pp":19.567395007212205,"vote_q97_5_pp":20.971060327861377,"zero_seat_probability":0.0},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":6.636587551468527,"contest_party_id":"YISRAEL_BEITEINU","display_name_en":"Yisrael Beiteinu","display_name_he":"ישראל ביתנו","expected_seats":8.356286053145835,"forecast_date":"2026-09-28","group_id":"CHANGE_CORE","headline_seats":8,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.9982594781479484,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.0017405218520516214,"p_represented":0.9982594781479484,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_yisrael_beiteinu","raw_b5_point_pp":6.759704520153811,"seat_q10":6.0,"seat_q90":11.0,"seat_range_display":"6–11","seat_range_high":11,"seat_range_low":6,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":6.47701107258553,"vote_q10_pp":4.752141251809821,"vote_q2_5_pp":4.033257737591398,"vote_q90_pp":8.309583392443358,"vote_q97_5_pp":9.647835263465327,"zero_seat_probability":0.0017405218520516214},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":7.5500847560611195,"contest_party_id":"THE_DEMOCRATS","display_name_en":"The Democrats","display_name_he":"הדמוקרטים","expected_seats":9.769904895820696,"forecast_date":"2026-09-28","group_id":"CHANGE_CORE","headline_seats":10,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.9998734170134158,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.00012658298658414573,"p_represented":0.9998734170134159,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_democrats","raw_b5_point_pp":7.690148236166573,"seat_q10":7.0,"seat_q90":12.0,"seat_range_display":"7–12","seat_range_high":12,"seat_range_low":7,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":7.5026301380003755,"vote_q10_pp":5.6654559477823145,"vote_q2_5_pp":4.87781435097708,"vote_q90_pp":9.45518529962902,"vote_q97_5_pp":10.79966454115899,"zero_seat_probability":0.00012658298658414573},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":3.9503053370669323,"contest_party_id":"RAAM","display_name_en":"Raam","display_name_he":"רע״ם","expected_seats":3.835624073717116,"forecast_date":"2026-09-28","group_id":"ARAB_LISTS","headline_seats":5,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.6692486697544755,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.3307513302455245,"p_represented":0.6692486697544755,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_raam","raw_b5_point_pp":4.023588423398455,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":7.0,"seat_range_display":"0, 4–8","seat_range_high":8,"seat_range_low":4,"seat_range_mode":"ZERO_SEPARATED_CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":3.9206441313954525,"vote_q10_pp":2.31638198834797,"vote_q2_5_pp":1.787403844725817,"vote_q90_pp":5.638411579982858,"vote_q97_5_pp":6.912127322508511,"zero_seat_probability":0.3307513302455245},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":5.64224365367504,"contest_party_id":"HADASH_TAAL_BALAD","display_name_en":"Joint List","display_name_he":"הרשימה המשותפת","expected_seats":7.227139837640028,"forecast_date":"2026-09-28","group_id":"ARAB_LISTS","headline_seats":7,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.9855259295140179,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.014474070485982125,"p_represented":0.985525929514018,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_joint_list","raw_b5_point_pp":5.746914304041212,"seat_q10":5.0,"seat_q90":10.0,"seat_range_display":"5–10","seat_range_high":10,"seat_range_low":5,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":5.680890817872931,"vote_q10_pp":4.041576435953987,"vote_q2_5_pp":3.4192138478777605,"vote_q90_pp":7.437413306706035,"vote_q97_5_pp":8.648761862957302,"zero_seat_probability":0.014474070485982125},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":1.2207565749966993,"contest_party_id":"BLUE_WHITE","display_name_en":"Blue and White","display_name_he":"כחול לבן","expected_seats":0.07312464184656828,"forecast_date":"2026-09-28","group_id":"UNCOMMITTED","headline_seats":0,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.012742401879818455,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.9872575981201815,"p_represented":0.012742401879818573,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_blue_white","raw_b5_point_pp":1.2434031306023683,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":0.0,"seat_range_display":"0","seat_range_high":null,"seat_range_low":null,"seat_range_mode":"ZERO_ONLY_RARE_REPRESENTATION","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":1.0968435365139144,"vote_q10_pp":0.3331855956411715,"vote_q2_5_pp":0.20764069412909245,"vote_q90_pp":2.15107809782179,"vote_q97_5_pp":3.003909690863076,"zero_seat_probability":0.9872575981201815},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":2.562047576916164,"contest_party_id":"K26_NATIVE_LIST::RESERVISTS_AND_NEW_ECONOMIC_PARTY","display_name_en":"Reservists–Economic","display_name_he":"המילואימניקים והכלכלית","expected_seats":1.0422978471200746,"forecast_date":"2026-09-28","group_id":"UNCOMMITTED","headline_seats":0,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.19382986308237116,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.8061701369176288,"p_represented":0.19382986308237116,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_reservists_economic","raw_b5_point_pp":2.609576751940397,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":5.0,"seat_range_display":"0, 4–7","seat_range_high":7,"seat_range_low":4,"seat_range_mode":"ZERO_SEPARATED_CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":2.3480574370601563,"vote_q10_pp":1.0174413978115318,"vote_q2_5_pp":0.6832730582819795,"vote_q90_pp":3.9991555356733524,"vote_q97_5_pp":5.43994460747591,"zero_seat_probability":0.8061701369176288},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":17.325179638512996,"contest_party_id":"LIKUD","display_name_en":"Likud","display_name_he":"הליכוד","expected_seats":23.2842,"forecast_date":"2026-09-29","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":24,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":1.0,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.0,"p_represented":1.0,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_likud","raw_b5_point_pp":17.646583309071026,"seat_q10":20.0,"seat_q90":27.0,"seat_range_display":"20–27","seat_range_high":27,"seat_range_low":20,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":17.325237556178088,"vote_q10_pp":14.735099601623434,"vote_q2_5_pp":13.598793430133734,"vote_q90_pp":19.99596574862242,"vote_q97_5_pp":21.537507291465115,"zero_seat_probability":0.0},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":5.674072203137139,"contest_party_id":"SHAS","display_name_en":"Shas","display_name_he":"ש״ס","expected_seats":7.1638,"forecast_date":"2026-09-29","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":7,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.96655,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.03345,"p_represented":0.96655,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_shas","raw_b5_point_pp":5.779333312756207,"seat_q10":5.0,"seat_q90":10.0,"seat_range_display":"5–10","seat_range_high":10,"seat_range_low":5,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":5.674000109598844,"vote_q10_pp":3.7958515883153425,"vote_q2_5_pp":3.147760039563976,"vote_q90_pp":7.778715608136321,"vote_q97_5_pp":9.260402444072234,"zero_seat_probability":0.03345},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":5.9112369834026435,"contest_party_id":"UNITED_TORAH_JUDAISM","display_name_en":"United Torah Judaism","display_name_he":"יהדות התורה","expected_seats":7.54075,"forecast_date":"2026-09-29","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":8,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.98045,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.01955,"p_represented":0.98045,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_utj","raw_b5_point_pp":6.020897795217872,"seat_q10":5.0,"seat_q90":11.0,"seat_range_display":"5–11","seat_range_high":11,"seat_range_low":5,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":5.91128941501167,"vote_q10_pp":4.040196530113,"vote_q2_5_pp":3.3616668644681695,"vote_q90_pp":8.045491242712897,"vote_q97_5_pp":9.558404807728998,"zero_seat_probability":0.01955},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":6.148316043002528,"contest_party_id":"OTZMA_YEHUDIT","display_name_en":"Otzma Yehudit","display_name_he":"עוצמה יהודית","expected_seats":7.87965,"forecast_date":"2026-09-29","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":8,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.98415,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.01585,"p_represented":0.98415,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_otzma","raw_b5_point_pp":6.262374966788755,"seat_q10":5.0,"seat_q90":11.0,"seat_range_display":"5–11","seat_range_high":11,"seat_range_low":5,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":6.148414671220237,"vote_q10_pp":4.133743575700675,"vote_q2_5_pp":3.4225503895036704,"vote_q90_pp":8.455071792860824,"vote_q97_5_pp":10.073236377587754,"zero_seat_probability":0.01585},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":4.6553497364986365,"contest_party_id":"K26_NATIVE_LIST::RZP_AND_ZEHUT","display_name_en":"Religious Zionism–Zehut","display_name_he":"הציונות הדתית וזהות","expected_seats":5.27845,"forecast_date":"2026-09-29","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":6,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.82155,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.17845,"p_represented":0.82155,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_religious_zionism_zehut","raw_b5_point_pp":4.741712274969288,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":9.0,"seat_range_display":"4–9","seat_range_high":9,"seat_range_low":4,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":4.655405665593978,"vote_q10_pp":2.8846141963550576,"vote_q2_5_pp":2.277017731093964,"vote_q90_pp":6.750040494707563,"vote_q97_5_pp":8.394033188920188,"zero_seat_probability":0.17845},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":3.1153946705796183,"contest_party_id":"WINTER_NEW_PARTY","display_name_en":"Amcha Yisrael","display_name_he":"עמך ישראל","expected_seats":2.1852,"forecast_date":"2026-09-29","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":0,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.37715,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.62285,"p_represented":0.37715,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_amcha_yisrael","raw_b5_point_pp":3.1731891236965937,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":6.0,"seat_range_display":"0, 4–8","seat_range_high":8,"seat_range_low":4,"seat_range_mode":"ZERO_SEPARATED_CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":3.1151567060644854,"vote_q10_pp":1.507670761653368,"vote_q2_5_pp":1.093598855848269,"vote_q90_pp":5.071146358437287,"vote_q97_5_pp":6.956742739766481,"zero_seat_probability":0.62285},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":0.5926263449995827,"contest_party_id":"K26_NATIVE_LIST::HAREDI_PUBLIC","display_name_en":"Haredi Public","display_name_he":"הציבור החרדי","expected_seats":0.08035,"forecast_date":"2026-09-29","group_id":"UNCOMMITTED","headline_seats":0,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.013599999999999945,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.9864,"p_represented":0.0136,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_haredi_public","raw_b5_point_pp":0.6036203021490281,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":0.0,"seat_range_display":"0","seat_range_high":null,"seat_range_low":null,"seat_range_mode":"ZERO_ONLY_RARE_REPRESENTATION","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":0.5926504505192719,"vote_q10_pp":0.10100784566363158,"vote_q2_5_pp":0.052446233802525055,"vote_q90_pp":1.3091339788255643,"vote_q97_5_pp":2.5515674087557594,"zero_seat_probability":0.9864},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":9.496255939717082,"contest_party_id":"K26_NATIVE_LIST::BEYAHAD_BENNETT","display_name_en":"Beyachad","display_name_he":"ביחד","expected_seats":12.53445,"forecast_date":"2026-09-29","group_id":"CHANGE_CORE","headline_seats":13,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":1.0,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.0,"p_represented":1.0,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_beyachad","raw_b5_point_pp":9.672423320331067,"seat_q10":9.0,"seat_q90":16.0,"seat_range_display":"9–16","seat_range_high":16,"seat_range_low":9,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":9.496267075738915,"vote_q10_pp":7.18790887175547,"vote_q2_5_pp":6.223146630632953,"vote_q90_pp":12.041282946779674,"vote_q97_5_pp":13.677028785345742,"zero_seat_probability":0.0},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":17.11954298996529,"contest_party_id":"YASHAR_GADI_EISENKOT","display_name_en":"Yashar!","display_name_he":"ישר!","expected_seats":22.99805,"forecast_date":"2026-09-29","group_id":"CHANGE_CORE","headline_seats":23,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":1.0,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.0,"p_represented":1.0,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_yashar","raw_b5_point_pp":17.437131844456562,"seat_q10":19.0,"seat_q90":27.0,"seat_range_display":"19–27","seat_range_high":27,"seat_range_low":19,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":17.11964080014631,"vote_q10_pp":14.517852237108965,"vote_q2_5_pp":13.287767769041192,"vote_q90_pp":19.828475775664767,"vote_q97_5_pp":21.43572012070159,"zero_seat_probability":0.0},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":6.636587551468527,"contest_party_id":"YISRAEL_BEITEINU","display_name_en":"Yisrael Beiteinu","display_name_he":"ישראל ביתנו","expected_seats":8.59005,"forecast_date":"2026-09-29","group_id":"CHANGE_CORE","headline_seats":9,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.9949,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.0051,"p_represented":0.9949,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_yisrael_beiteinu","raw_b5_point_pp":6.759704520153811,"seat_q10":6.0,"seat_q90":12.0,"seat_range_display":"6–12","seat_range_high":12,"seat_range_low":6,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":6.636443256745985,"vote_q10_pp":4.5944540901432065,"vote_q2_5_pp":3.8155165499969335,"vote_q90_pp":8.95201186975805,"vote_q97_5_pp":10.593343234660622,"zero_seat_probability":0.0051},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":7.5500847560611195,"contest_party_id":"THE_DEMOCRATS","display_name_en":"The Democrats","display_name_he":"הדמוקרטים","expected_seats":9.86265,"forecast_date":"2026-09-29","group_id":"CHANGE_CORE","headline_seats":10,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.99945,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.00055,"p_represented":0.99945,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_democrats","raw_b5_point_pp":7.690148236166573,"seat_q10":7.0,"seat_q90":13.0,"seat_range_display":"7–13","seat_range_high":13,"seat_range_low":7,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":7.550162080404838,"vote_q10_pp":5.375490571838359,"vote_q2_5_pp":4.579998447075794,"vote_q90_pp":9.96522422870985,"vote_q97_5_pp":11.639178428047668,"zero_seat_probability":0.00055},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":3.9503053370669323,"contest_party_id":"RAAM","display_name_en":"Raam","display_name_he":"רע״ם","expected_seats":3.77945,"forecast_date":"2026-09-29","group_id":"ARAB_LISTS","headline_seats":5,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.6287499999999999,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.37125,"p_represented":0.62875,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_raam","raw_b5_point_pp":4.023588423398455,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":8.0,"seat_range_display":"0, 4–9","seat_range_high":9,"seat_range_low":4,"seat_range_mode":"ZERO_SEPARATED_CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":3.950334552806136,"vote_q10_pp":2.2262436597894877,"vote_q2_5_pp":1.6985007602208777,"vote_q90_pp":5.989824207301334,"vote_q97_5_pp":7.828297991379947,"zero_seat_probability":0.37125},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":5.64224365367504,"contest_party_id":"HADASH_TAAL_BALAD","display_name_en":"Joint List","display_name_he":"הרשימה המשותפת","expected_seats":7.11675,"forecast_date":"2026-09-29","group_id":"ARAB_LISTS","headline_seats":7,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.9658,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.0342,"p_represented":0.9658,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_joint_list","raw_b5_point_pp":5.746914304041212,"seat_q10":5.0,"seat_q90":10.0,"seat_range_display":"5–10","seat_range_high":10,"seat_range_low":5,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":5.642236814237127,"vote_q10_pp":3.77442883651947,"vote_q2_5_pp":3.1375865207799425,"vote_q90_pp":7.783942033248279,"vote_q97_5_pp":9.341985132481502,"zero_seat_probability":0.0342},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":1.2207565749966993,"contest_party_id":"BLUE_WHITE","display_name_en":"Blue and White","display_name_he":"כחול לבן","expected_seats":0.278,"forecast_date":"2026-09-29","group_id":"UNCOMMITTED","headline_seats":0,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.0474,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.9526,"p_represented":0.0474,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_blue_white","raw_b5_point_pp":1.2434031306023683,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":0.0,"seat_range_display":"0","seat_range_high":null,"seat_range_low":null,"seat_range_mode":"ZERO_ONLY_RARE_REPRESENTATION","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":1.2206957033203678,"vote_q10_pp":0.3465124731466405,"vote_q2_5_pp":0.19917792900882303,"vote_q90_pp":2.4417860483899645,"vote_q97_5_pp":4.012817125971654,"zero_seat_probability":0.9526},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":2.562047576916164,"contest_party_id":"K26_NATIVE_LIST::RESERVISTS_AND_NEW_ECONOMIC_PARTY","display_name_en":"Reservists–Economic","display_name_he":"המילואימניקים והכלכלית","expected_seats":1.4282,"forecast_date":"2026-09-29","group_id":"UNCOMMITTED","headline_seats":0,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.24034999999999995,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.75965,"p_represented":0.24035,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_reservists_economic","raw_b5_point_pp":2.609576751940397,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":6.0,"seat_range_display":"0, 4–9","seat_range_high":9,"seat_range_low":4,"seat_range_mode":"ZERO_SEPARATED_CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":2.562065142413744,"vote_q10_pp":1.0473984129791494,"vote_q2_5_pp":0.6935603484839173,"vote_q90_pp":4.494739617035523,"vote_q97_5_pp":6.621263019496272,"zero_seat_probability":0.75965},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":17.325179638512996,"contest_party_id":"LIKUD","display_name_en":"Likud","display_name_he":"הליכוד","expected_seats":23.660695279702363,"forecast_date":"2026-09-29","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":24,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":1.0,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.0,"p_represented":1.0,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_likud","raw_b5_point_pp":17.646583309071026,"seat_q10":20.0,"seat_q90":27.0,"seat_range_display":"20–27","seat_range_high":27,"seat_range_low":20,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":17.655010923217034,"vote_q10_pp":15.147896780277323,"vote_q2_5_pp":13.946475412438165,"vote_q90_pp":20.223300761940944,"vote_q97_5_pp":21.72390625604264,"zero_seat_probability":0.0},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":5.674072203137139,"contest_party_id":"SHAS","display_name_en":"Shas","display_name_he":"ש״ס","expected_seats":7.575588121599774,"forecast_date":"2026-09-29","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":8,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.9886788420443116,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.011321157955688499,"p_represented":0.9886788420443114,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_shas","raw_b5_point_pp":5.779333312756207,"seat_q10":5.0,"seat_q90":10.0,"seat_range_display":"5–10","seat_range_high":10,"seat_range_low":5,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":5.925387318203945,"vote_q10_pp":4.205958547823369,"vote_q2_5_pp":3.5349731799407738,"vote_q90_pp":7.79834563460005,"vote_q97_5_pp":9.00646664688752,"zero_seat_probability":0.011321157955688499},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":5.9112369834026435,"contest_party_id":"UNITED_TORAH_JUDAISM","display_name_en":"United Torah Judaism","display_name_he":"יהדות התורה","expected_seats":7.559463236238535,"forecast_date":"2026-09-29","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":8,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.9929158539146348,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.00708414608536519,"p_represented":0.9929158539146348,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_utj","raw_b5_point_pp":6.020897795217872,"seat_q10":5.0,"seat_q90":10.0,"seat_range_display":"5–10","seat_range_high":10,"seat_range_low":5,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":5.908775371932924,"vote_q10_pp":4.304537607087663,"vote_q2_5_pp":3.666864349362225,"vote_q90_pp":7.642833024156296,"vote_q97_5_pp":8.805727334379707,"zero_seat_probability":0.00708414608536519},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":6.148316043002528,"contest_party_id":"OTZMA_YEHUDIT","display_name_en":"Otzma Yehudit","display_name_he":"עוצמה יהודית","expected_seats":7.8583395448536635,"forecast_date":"2026-09-29","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":8,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.9943227785654707,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.00567722143452932,"p_represented":0.9943227785654706,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_otzma","raw_b5_point_pp":6.262374966788755,"seat_q10":6.0,"seat_q90":10.0,"seat_range_display":"6–10","seat_range_high":10,"seat_range_low":6,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":6.124393098686214,"vote_q10_pp":4.398544835670194,"vote_q2_5_pp":3.7322735172294372,"vote_q90_pp":7.985174479433253,"vote_q97_5_pp":9.260439472012928,"zero_seat_probability":0.00567722143452932},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":4.6553497364986365,"contest_party_id":"K26_NATIVE_LIST::RZP_AND_ZEHUT","display_name_en":"Religious Zionism–Zehut","display_name_he":"הציונות הדתית וזהות","expected_seats":5.59586485387249,"forecast_date":"2026-09-29","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":6,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.8864872631412631,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.11351273685873683,"p_represented":0.8864872631412631,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_religious_zionism_zehut","raw_b5_point_pp":4.741712274969288,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":8.0,"seat_range_display":"4–9","seat_range_high":9,"seat_range_low":4,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":4.7363452204680145,"vote_q10_pp":3.159894900384744,"vote_q2_5_pp":2.457616542943592,"vote_q90_pp":6.491456116326018,"vote_q97_5_pp":7.740264743836088,"zero_seat_probability":0.11351273685873683},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":3.1153946705796183,"contest_party_id":"WINTER_NEW_PARTY","display_name_en":"Amcha Yisrael","display_name_he":"עמך ישראל","expected_seats":1.8461161863453588,"forecast_date":"2026-09-29","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":0,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.34149500815943545,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.6585049918405645,"p_represented":0.34149500815943534,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_amcha_yisrael","raw_b5_point_pp":3.1731891236965937,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":6.0,"seat_range_display":"0, 4–7","seat_range_high":7,"seat_range_low":4,"seat_range_mode":"ZERO_SEPARATED_CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":2.9395303682662184,"vote_q10_pp":1.5009631897325946,"vote_q2_5_pp":1.0947102766755747,"vote_q90_pp":4.675825322309165,"vote_q97_5_pp":5.918861739250518,"zero_seat_probability":0.6585049918405645},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":0.5926263449995827,"contest_party_id":"K26_NATIVE_LIST::HAREDI_PUBLIC","display_name_en":"Haredi Public","display_name_he":"הציבור החרדי","expected_seats":0.020199250984934813,"forecast_date":"2026-09-29","group_id":"UNCOMMITTED","headline_seats":0,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.003485867078748983,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.996514132921251,"p_represented":0.0034858670787490074,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_haredi_public","raw_b5_point_pp":0.6036203021490281,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":0.0,"seat_range_display":"0","seat_range_high":null,"seat_range_low":null,"seat_range_mode":"ZERO_ONLY_RARE_REPRESENTATION","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":0.5447762077854803,"vote_q10_pp":0.10002199189759242,"vote_q2_5_pp":0.050255943367909145,"vote_q90_pp":1.2038853316140836,"vote_q97_5_pp":2.193170970025681,"zero_seat_probability":0.996514132921251},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":9.496255939717082,"contest_party_id":"K26_NATIVE_LIST::BEYAHAD_BENNETT","display_name_en":"Beyachad","display_name_he":"ביחד","expected_seats":12.499179553732157,"forecast_date":"2026-09-29","group_id":"CHANGE_CORE","headline_seats":13,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":1.0,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.0,"p_represented":1.0,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_beyachad","raw_b5_point_pp":9.672423320331067,"seat_q10":10.0,"seat_q90":16.0,"seat_range_display":"10–16","seat_range_high":16,"seat_range_low":10,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":9.50069506487528,"vote_q10_pp":7.3808755653796005,"vote_q2_5_pp":6.449358224283068,"vote_q90_pp":11.796389329685688,"vote_q97_5_pp":13.265924762010025,"zero_seat_probability":0.0},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":17.11954298996529,"contest_party_id":"YASHAR_GADI_EISENKOT","display_name_en":"Yashar!","display_name_he":"ישר!","expected_seats":23.099388711832418,"forecast_date":"2026-09-29","group_id":"CHANGE_CORE","headline_seats":23,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":1.0,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.0,"p_represented":1.0,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_yashar","raw_b5_point_pp":17.437131844456562,"seat_q10":20.0,"seat_q90":26.0,"seat_range_display":"20–26","seat_range_high":26,"seat_range_low":20,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":17.2523942021051,"vote_q10_pp":15.033618217553254,"vote_q2_5_pp":13.98570138775958,"vote_q90_pp":19.540024967699583,"vote_q97_5_pp":20.92520002722196,"zero_seat_probability":0.0},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":6.636587551468527,"contest_party_id":"YISRAEL_BEITEINU","display_name_en":"Yisrael Beiteinu","display_name_he":"ישראל ביתנו","expected_seats":8.338470886107164,"forecast_date":"2026-09-29","group_id":"CHANGE_CORE","headline_seats":8,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.9982947416079466,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.0017052583920534278,"p_represented":0.9982947416079464,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_yisrael_beiteinu","raw_b5_point_pp":6.759704520153811,"seat_q10":6.0,"seat_q90":11.0,"seat_range_display":"6–11","seat_range_high":11,"seat_range_low":6,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":6.465237983930316,"vote_q10_pp":4.751994134495264,"vote_q2_5_pp":4.063541699744564,"vote_q90_pp":8.320597989185055,"vote_q97_5_pp":9.674313120571362,"zero_seat_probability":0.0017052583920534278},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":7.5500847560611195,"contest_party_id":"THE_DEMOCRATS","display_name_en":"The Democrats","display_name_he":"הדמוקרטים","expected_seats":9.732195042692766,"forecast_date":"2026-09-29","group_id":"CHANGE_CORE","headline_seats":10,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.999871693614671,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.00012830638532903253,"p_represented":0.9998716936146708,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_democrats","raw_b5_point_pp":7.690148236166573,"seat_q10":7.0,"seat_q90":12.0,"seat_range_display":"7–12","seat_range_high":12,"seat_range_low":7,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":7.480267882668652,"vote_q10_pp":5.648426155854207,"vote_q2_5_pp":4.85813417013082,"vote_q90_pp":9.415024508502697,"vote_q97_5_pp":10.796606426857851,"zero_seat_probability":0.00012830638532903253},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":3.9503053370669323,"contest_party_id":"RAAM","display_name_en":"Raam","display_name_he":"רע״ם","expected_seats":3.8614125692673253,"forecast_date":"2026-09-29","group_id":"ARAB_LISTS","headline_seats":5,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.6757450609102412,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.3242549390897588,"p_represented":0.6757450609102412,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_raam","raw_b5_point_pp":4.023588423398455,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":7.0,"seat_range_display":"0, 4–8","seat_range_high":8,"seat_range_low":4,"seat_range_mode":"ZERO_SEPARATED_CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":3.9175214879702467,"vote_q10_pp":2.30585978898772,"vote_q2_5_pp":1.742384864915876,"vote_q90_pp":5.616228719882187,"vote_q97_5_pp":6.9188038068692945,"zero_seat_probability":0.3242549390897588},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":5.64224365367504,"contest_party_id":"HADASH_TAAL_BALAD","display_name_en":"Joint List","display_name_he":"הרשימה המשותפת","expected_seats":7.256953196213758,"forecast_date":"2026-09-29","group_id":"ARAB_LISTS","headline_seats":7,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.98620112611137,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.01379887388863003,"p_represented":0.9862011261113699,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_joint_list","raw_b5_point_pp":5.746914304041212,"seat_q10":5.0,"seat_q90":10.0,"seat_range_display":"5–10","seat_range_high":10,"seat_range_low":5,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":5.706005879352777,"vote_q10_pp":4.0596834106070725,"vote_q2_5_pp":3.4412227240390862,"vote_q90_pp":7.4756202802665435,"vote_q97_5_pp":8.656015068005177,"zero_seat_probability":0.01379887388863003},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":1.2207565749966993,"contest_party_id":"BLUE_WHITE","display_name_en":"Blue and White","display_name_he":"כחול לבן","expected_seats":0.07190137230740071,"forecast_date":"2026-09-29","group_id":"UNCOMMITTED","headline_seats":0,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.012508572007591034,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.987491427992409,"p_represented":0.012508572007591003,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_blue_white","raw_b5_point_pp":1.2434031306023683,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":0.0,"seat_range_display":"0","seat_range_high":null,"seat_range_low":null,"seat_range_mode":"ZERO_ONLY_RARE_REPRESENTATION","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":1.0906012056076038,"vote_q10_pp":0.34130559554780077,"vote_q2_5_pp":0.19952417000836303,"vote_q90_pp":2.144471867729103,"vote_q97_5_pp":2.9963338152164516,"zero_seat_probability":0.987491427992409},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":2.562047576916164,"contest_party_id":"K26_NATIVE_LIST::RESERVISTS_AND_NEW_ECONOMIC_PARTY","display_name_en":"Reservists–Economic","display_name_he":"המילואימניקים והכלכלית","expected_seats":1.0242321942498926,"forecast_date":"2026-09-29","group_id":"UNCOMMITTED","headline_seats":0,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.19069390726477575,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.8093060927352242,"p_represented":0.19069390726477578,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_reservists_economic","raw_b5_point_pp":2.609576751940397,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":5.0,"seat_range_display":"0, 4–7","seat_range_high":7,"seat_range_low":4,"seat_range_mode":"ZERO_SEPARATED_CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":2.3530577849301864,"vote_q10_pp":1.0322740881061114,"vote_q2_5_pp":0.683028948110141,"vote_q90_pp":3.9717389092407536,"vote_q97_5_pp":5.4176254045738625,"zero_seat_probability":0.8093060927352242},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":17.325179638512996,"contest_party_id":"LIKUD","display_name_en":"Likud","display_name_he":"הליכוד","expected_seats":23.2917,"forecast_date":"2026-09-30","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":24,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":1.0,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.0,"p_represented":1.0,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_likud","raw_b5_point_pp":17.646583309071026,"seat_q10":20.0,"seat_q90":27.0,"seat_range_display":"20–27","seat_range_high":27,"seat_range_low":20,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":17.325182139185312,"vote_q10_pp":14.774729910022705,"vote_q2_5_pp":13.602382400816298,"vote_q90_pp":19.978328813823662,"vote_q97_5_pp":21.537955915900646,"zero_seat_probability":0.0},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":5.674072203137139,"contest_party_id":"SHAS","display_name_en":"Shas","display_name_he":"ש״ס","expected_seats":7.16795,"forecast_date":"2026-09-30","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":7,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.9676,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.0324,"p_represented":0.9676,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_shas","raw_b5_point_pp":5.779333312756207,"seat_q10":5.0,"seat_q90":10.0,"seat_range_display":"5–10","seat_range_high":10,"seat_range_low":5,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":5.674026764395261,"vote_q10_pp":3.8378604605313846,"vote_q2_5_pp":3.150490440056024,"vote_q90_pp":7.783456638114325,"vote_q97_5_pp":9.425577396581488,"zero_seat_probability":0.0324},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":5.9112369834026435,"contest_party_id":"UNITED_TORAH_JUDAISM","display_name_en":"United Torah Judaism","display_name_he":"יהדות התורה","expected_seats":7.5474,"forecast_date":"2026-09-30","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":8,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.98135,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.01865,"p_represented":0.98135,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_utj","raw_b5_point_pp":6.020897795217872,"seat_q10":5.0,"seat_q90":11.0,"seat_range_display":"5–11","seat_range_high":11,"seat_range_low":5,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":5.911256615485737,"vote_q10_pp":4.0184548269926035,"vote_q2_5_pp":3.360670999309379,"vote_q90_pp":8.038531369367314,"vote_q97_5_pp":9.577709175018482,"zero_seat_probability":0.01865},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":6.148316043002528,"contest_party_id":"OTZMA_YEHUDIT","display_name_en":"Otzma Yehudit","display_name_he":"עוצמה יהודית","expected_seats":7.8866,"forecast_date":"2026-09-30","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":8,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.98425,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.01575,"p_represented":0.98425,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_otzma","raw_b5_point_pp":6.262374966788755,"seat_q10":5.0,"seat_q90":11.0,"seat_range_display":"5–11","seat_range_high":11,"seat_range_low":5,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":6.148191617947677,"vote_q10_pp":4.135419768831538,"vote_q2_5_pp":3.4331530262045336,"vote_q90_pp":8.44038761920488,"vote_q97_5_pp":10.155042002738133,"zero_seat_probability":0.01575},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":4.6553497364986365,"contest_party_id":"K26_NATIVE_LIST::RZP_AND_ZEHUT","display_name_en":"Religious Zionism–Zehut","display_name_he":"הציונות הדתית וזהות","expected_seats":5.26695,"forecast_date":"2026-09-30","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":6,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.8165,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.1835,"p_represented":0.8165,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_religious_zionism_zehut","raw_b5_point_pp":4.741712274969288,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":9.0,"seat_range_display":"4–9","seat_range_high":9,"seat_range_low":4,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":4.655369083321769,"vote_q10_pp":2.8561444686534303,"vote_q2_5_pp":2.262401420160373,"vote_q90_pp":6.765582578626285,"vote_q97_5_pp":8.426471059000718,"zero_seat_probability":0.1835},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":3.1153946705796183,"contest_party_id":"WINTER_NEW_PARTY","display_name_en":"Amcha Yisrael","display_name_he":"עמך ישראל","expected_seats":2.1849,"forecast_date":"2026-09-30","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":0,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.37765000000000004,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.62235,"p_represented":0.37765,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_amcha_yisrael","raw_b5_point_pp":3.1731891236965937,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":6.0,"seat_range_display":"0, 4–8","seat_range_high":8,"seat_range_low":4,"seat_range_mode":"ZERO_SEPARATED_CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":3.1153525407726366,"vote_q10_pp":1.5058745909284508,"vote_q2_5_pp":1.0807641556586052,"vote_q90_pp":5.081097054391744,"vote_q97_5_pp":6.959890474849653,"zero_seat_probability":0.62235},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":0.5926263449995827,"contest_party_id":"K26_NATIVE_LIST::HAREDI_PUBLIC","display_name_en":"Haredi Public","display_name_he":"הציבור החרדי","expected_seats":0.08355,"forecast_date":"2026-09-30","group_id":"UNCOMMITTED","headline_seats":0,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.013299999999999979,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.9867,"p_represented":0.0133,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_haredi_public","raw_b5_point_pp":0.6036203021490281,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":0.0,"seat_range_display":"0","seat_range_high":null,"seat_range_low":null,"seat_range_mode":"ZERO_ONLY_RARE_REPRESENTATION","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":0.5927576887118902,"vote_q10_pp":0.10099980900342058,"vote_q2_5_pp":0.05122096380787179,"vote_q90_pp":1.2916632660043208,"vote_q97_5_pp":2.521309712444919,"zero_seat_probability":0.9867},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":9.496255939717082,"contest_party_id":"K26_NATIVE_LIST::BEYAHAD_BENNETT","display_name_en":"Beyachad","display_name_he":"ביחד","expected_seats":12.5423,"forecast_date":"2026-09-30","group_id":"CHANGE_CORE","headline_seats":13,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":1.0,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.0,"p_represented":1.0,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_beyachad","raw_b5_point_pp":9.672423320331067,"seat_q10":9.0,"seat_q90":16.0,"seat_range_display":"9–16","seat_range_high":16,"seat_range_low":9,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":9.496288473527818,"vote_q10_pp":7.2136953489226725,"vote_q2_5_pp":6.26265647041448,"vote_q90_pp":12.017205234107871,"vote_q97_5_pp":13.648904102846057,"zero_seat_probability":0.0},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":17.11954298996529,"contest_party_id":"YASHAR_GADI_EISENKOT","display_name_en":"Yashar!","display_name_he":"ישר!","expected_seats":23.00985,"forecast_date":"2026-09-30","group_id":"CHANGE_CORE","headline_seats":23,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":1.0,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.0,"p_represented":1.0,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_yashar","raw_b5_point_pp":17.437131844456562,"seat_q10":19.0,"seat_q90":27.0,"seat_range_display":"19–27","seat_range_high":27,"seat_range_low":19,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":17.11950658393387,"vote_q10_pp":14.5466954458277,"vote_q2_5_pp":13.354287927329372,"vote_q90_pp":19.839845579796425,"vote_q97_5_pp":21.31463707618267,"zero_seat_probability":0.0},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":6.636587551468527,"contest_party_id":"YISRAEL_BEITEINU","display_name_en":"Yisrael Beiteinu","display_name_he":"ישראל ביתנו","expected_seats":8.5924,"forecast_date":"2026-09-30","group_id":"CHANGE_CORE","headline_seats":9,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.99535,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.00465,"p_represented":0.99535,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_yisrael_beiteinu","raw_b5_point_pp":6.759704520153811,"seat_q10":6.0,"seat_q90":12.0,"seat_range_display":"6–12","seat_range_high":12,"seat_range_low":6,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":6.6366570723501965,"vote_q10_pp":4.584046648767368,"vote_q2_5_pp":3.8363765010500233,"vote_q90_pp":8.949754953503469,"vote_q97_5_pp":10.62271481325969,"zero_seat_probability":0.00465},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":7.5500847560611195,"contest_party_id":"THE_DEMOCRATS","display_name_en":"The Democrats","display_name_he":"הדמוקרטים","expected_seats":9.8648,"forecast_date":"2026-09-30","group_id":"CHANGE_CORE","headline_seats":10,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.99955,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.00045,"p_represented":0.99955,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_democrats","raw_b5_point_pp":7.690148236166573,"seat_q10":7.0,"seat_q90":13.0,"seat_range_display":"7–13","seat_range_high":13,"seat_range_low":7,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":7.55007660510068,"vote_q10_pp":5.41088462381788,"vote_q2_5_pp":4.581993651742015,"vote_q90_pp":9.972770991185612,"vote_q97_5_pp":11.63544142426576,"zero_seat_probability":0.00045},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":3.9503053370669323,"contest_party_id":"RAAM","display_name_en":"Raam","display_name_he":"רע״ם","expected_seats":3.7526,"forecast_date":"2026-09-30","group_id":"ARAB_LISTS","headline_seats":5,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.6234,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.3766,"p_represented":0.6234,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_raam","raw_b5_point_pp":4.023588423398455,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":8.0,"seat_range_display":"0, 4–9","seat_range_high":9,"seat_range_low":4,"seat_range_mode":"ZERO_SEPARATED_CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":3.9503923001836183,"vote_q10_pp":2.24654136484793,"vote_q2_5_pp":1.716464999620298,"vote_q90_pp":6.015719306066198,"vote_q97_5_pp":7.686776573272356,"zero_seat_probability":0.3766},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":5.64224365367504,"contest_party_id":"HADASH_TAAL_BALAD","display_name_en":"Joint List","display_name_he":"הרשימה המשותפת","expected_seats":7.10125,"forecast_date":"2026-09-30","group_id":"ARAB_LISTS","headline_seats":7,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.96025,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.03975,"p_represented":0.96025,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_joint_list","raw_b5_point_pp":5.746914304041212,"seat_q10":5.0,"seat_q90":10.0,"seat_range_display":"5–10","seat_range_high":10,"seat_range_low":5,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":5.642256316676058,"vote_q10_pp":3.7512648550409704,"vote_q2_5_pp":3.058061368714998,"vote_q90_pp":7.814371846480266,"vote_q97_5_pp":9.370375768656288,"zero_seat_probability":0.03975},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":1.2207565749966993,"contest_party_id":"BLUE_WHITE","display_name_en":"Blue and White","display_name_he":"כחול לבן","expected_seats":0.27065,"forecast_date":"2026-09-30","group_id":"UNCOMMITTED","headline_seats":0,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.047050000000000036,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.95295,"p_represented":0.04705,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_blue_white","raw_b5_point_pp":1.2434031306023683,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":0.0,"seat_range_display":"0","seat_range_high":null,"seat_range_low":null,"seat_range_mode":"ZERO_ONLY_RARE_REPRESENTATION","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":1.2207529198078064,"vote_q10_pp":0.34473650324552685,"vote_q2_5_pp":0.20523766677697114,"vote_q90_pp":2.453310598190327,"vote_q97_5_pp":4.034936413821233,"zero_seat_probability":0.95295},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":2.562047576916164,"contest_party_id":"K26_NATIVE_LIST::RESERVISTS_AND_NEW_ECONOMIC_PARTY","display_name_en":"Reservists–Economic","display_name_he":"המילואימניקים והכלכלית","expected_seats":1.4371,"forecast_date":"2026-09-30","group_id":"UNCOMMITTED","headline_seats":0,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.24270000000000003,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.7573,"p_represented":0.2427,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_reservists_economic","raw_b5_point_pp":2.609576751940397,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":6.0,"seat_range_display":"0, 4–9","seat_range_high":9,"seat_range_low":4,"seat_range_mode":"ZERO_SEPARATED_CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":2.561933278599666,"vote_q10_pp":1.0371903187197404,"vote_q2_5_pp":0.7082648304169917,"vote_q90_pp":4.537757193464784,"vote_q97_5_pp":6.6394451790701146,"zero_seat_probability":0.7573},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":17.325179638512996,"contest_party_id":"LIKUD","display_name_en":"Likud","display_name_he":"הליכוד","expected_seats":23.684611579236922,"forecast_date":"2026-09-30","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":24,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":1.0,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.0,"p_represented":1.0,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_likud","raw_b5_point_pp":17.646583309071026,"seat_q10":20.0,"seat_q90":27.0,"seat_range_display":"20–27","seat_range_high":27,"seat_range_low":20,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":17.669245868725334,"vote_q10_pp":15.137906599405719,"vote_q2_5_pp":13.999781721005002,"vote_q90_pp":20.228258545509608,"vote_q97_5_pp":21.74718607428627,"zero_seat_probability":0.0},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":5.674072203137139,"contest_party_id":"SHAS","display_name_en":"Shas","display_name_he":"ש״ס","expected_seats":7.582141007702345,"forecast_date":"2026-09-30","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":8,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.9887083494413453,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.011291650558654668,"p_represented":0.9887083494413453,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_shas","raw_b5_point_pp":5.779333312756207,"seat_q10":5.0,"seat_q90":10.0,"seat_range_display":"5–10","seat_range_high":10,"seat_range_low":5,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":5.932611996376166,"vote_q10_pp":4.209861125036281,"vote_q2_5_pp":3.5314242396685644,"vote_q90_pp":7.824456741499704,"vote_q97_5_pp":9.155184803103685,"zero_seat_probability":0.011291650558654668},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":5.9112369834026435,"contest_party_id":"UNITED_TORAH_JUDAISM","display_name_en":"United Torah Judaism","display_name_he":"יהדות התורה","expected_seats":7.571949828121582,"forecast_date":"2026-09-30","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":8,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.9935122395876368,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.006487760412363176,"p_represented":0.9935122395876368,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_utj","raw_b5_point_pp":6.020897795217872,"seat_q10":5.0,"seat_q90":10.0,"seat_range_display":"5–10","seat_range_high":10,"seat_range_low":5,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":5.914757188538466,"vote_q10_pp":4.294011942444492,"vote_q2_5_pp":3.6540045005827735,"vote_q90_pp":7.68024254738993,"vote_q97_5_pp":8.823468059460218,"zero_seat_probability":0.006487760412363176},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":6.148316043002528,"contest_party_id":"OTZMA_YEHUDIT","display_name_en":"Otzma Yehudit","display_name_he":"עוצמה יהודית","expected_seats":7.8441959462734445,"forecast_date":"2026-09-30","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":8,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.9940263910623711,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.0059736089376289095,"p_represented":0.9940263910623711,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_otzma","raw_b5_point_pp":6.262374966788755,"seat_q10":6.0,"seat_q90":10.0,"seat_range_display":"6–10","seat_range_high":10,"seat_range_low":6,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":6.111311291857708,"vote_q10_pp":4.419068902849032,"vote_q2_5_pp":3.7295612935807116,"vote_q90_pp":7.9495886512968275,"vote_q97_5_pp":9.304473011424212,"zero_seat_probability":0.0059736089376289095},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":4.6553497364986365,"contest_party_id":"K26_NATIVE_LIST::RZP_AND_ZEHUT","display_name_en":"Religious Zionism–Zehut","display_name_he":"הציונות הדתית וזהות","expected_seats":5.599422554554142,"forecast_date":"2026-09-30","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":6,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.8868481296942037,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.11315187030579638,"p_represented":0.8868481296942037,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_religious_zionism_zehut","raw_b5_point_pp":4.741712274969288,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":8.0,"seat_range_display":"4–9","seat_range_high":9,"seat_range_low":4,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":4.7364891375444635,"vote_q10_pp":3.1654739442828608,"vote_q2_5_pp":2.4358867338641557,"vote_q90_pp":6.476808863825257,"vote_q97_5_pp":7.676710115959823,"zero_seat_probability":0.11315187030579638},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":3.1153946705796183,"contest_party_id":"WINTER_NEW_PARTY","display_name_en":"Amcha Yisrael","display_name_he":"עמך ישראל","expected_seats":1.8609725895229283,"forecast_date":"2026-09-30","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":0,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.34392326419955155,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.6560767358004485,"p_represented":0.34392326419955155,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_amcha_yisrael","raw_b5_point_pp":3.1731891236965937,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":6.0,"seat_range_display":"0, 4–7","seat_range_high":7,"seat_range_low":4,"seat_range_mode":"ZERO_SEPARATED_CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":2.9544672664817924,"vote_q10_pp":1.5041258044418597,"vote_q2_5_pp":1.086420211579009,"vote_q90_pp":4.67968957576902,"vote_q97_5_pp":5.982447518588839,"zero_seat_probability":0.6560767358004485},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":0.5926263449995827,"contest_party_id":"K26_NATIVE_LIST::HAREDI_PUBLIC","display_name_en":"Haredi Public","display_name_he":"הציבור החרדי","expected_seats":0.018917613229325902,"forecast_date":"2026-09-30","group_id":"UNCOMMITTED","headline_seats":0,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.0030603686526904372,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.9969396313473096,"p_represented":0.003060368652690412,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_haredi_public","raw_b5_point_pp":0.6036203021490281,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":0.0,"seat_range_display":"0","seat_range_high":null,"seat_range_low":null,"seat_range_mode":"ZERO_ONLY_RARE_REPRESENTATION","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":0.5345305558391109,"vote_q10_pp":0.0999908002299748,"vote_q2_5_pp":0.05142533352430834,"vote_q90_pp":1.2046781134705815,"vote_q97_5_pp":2.1239830737228584,"zero_seat_probability":0.9969396313473096},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":9.496255939717082,"contest_party_id":"K26_NATIVE_LIST::BEYAHAD_BENNETT","display_name_en":"Beyachad","display_name_he":"ביחד","expected_seats":12.473638654398988,"forecast_date":"2026-09-30","group_id":"CHANGE_CORE","headline_seats":13,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":1.0,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.0,"p_represented":1.0,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_beyachad","raw_b5_point_pp":9.672423320331067,"seat_q10":10.0,"seat_q90":16.0,"seat_range_display":"10–16","seat_range_high":16,"seat_range_low":10,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":9.481265798334793,"vote_q10_pp":7.377351802006872,"vote_q2_5_pp":6.430622126274666,"vote_q90_pp":11.792252210061779,"vote_q97_5_pp":13.212965518382799,"zero_seat_probability":0.0},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":17.11954298996529,"contest_party_id":"YASHAR_GADI_EISENKOT","display_name_en":"Yashar!","display_name_he":"ישר!","expected_seats":23.1260509141839,"forecast_date":"2026-09-30","group_id":"CHANGE_CORE","headline_seats":23,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":1.0,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.0,"p_represented":1.0,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_yashar","raw_b5_point_pp":17.437131844456562,"seat_q10":20.0,"seat_q90":26.0,"seat_range_display":"20–26","seat_range_high":26,"seat_range_low":20,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":17.261207896826743,"vote_q10_pp":15.046940743936714,"vote_q2_5_pp":13.981676853742645,"vote_q90_pp":19.56476115106095,"vote_q97_5_pp":20.88141866570416,"zero_seat_probability":0.0},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":6.636587551468527,"contest_party_id":"YISRAEL_BEITEINU","display_name_en":"Yisrael Beiteinu","display_name_he":"ישראל ביתנו","expected_seats":8.35034525901826,"forecast_date":"2026-09-30","group_id":"CHANGE_CORE","headline_seats":8,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.998497519682567,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.0015024803174331011,"p_represented":0.998497519682567,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_yisrael_beiteinu","raw_b5_point_pp":6.759704520153811,"seat_q10":6.0,"seat_q90":11.0,"seat_range_display":"6–11","seat_range_high":11,"seat_range_low":6,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":6.4739296201085486,"vote_q10_pp":4.7459919202786836,"vote_q2_5_pp":4.0658691260776845,"vote_q90_pp":8.30583486605841,"vote_q97_5_pp":9.609431789984834,"zero_seat_probability":0.0015024803174331011},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":7.5500847560611195,"contest_party_id":"THE_DEMOCRATS","display_name_en":"The Democrats","display_name_he":"הדמוקרטים","expected_seats":9.717389640608452,"forecast_date":"2026-09-30","group_id":"CHANGE_CORE","headline_seats":10,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.9998523850006242,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.00014761499937580944,"p_represented":0.9998523850006241,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_democrats","raw_b5_point_pp":7.690148236166573,"seat_q10":7.0,"seat_q90":12.0,"seat_range_display":"7–12","seat_range_high":12,"seat_range_low":7,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":7.469758346655404,"vote_q10_pp":5.6848717254462775,"vote_q2_5_pp":4.923395071947415,"vote_q90_pp":9.401565432954778,"vote_q97_5_pp":10.758917687960336,"zero_seat_probability":0.00014761499937580944},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":3.9503053370669323,"contest_party_id":"RAAM","display_name_en":"Raam","display_name_he":"רע״ם","expected_seats":3.8484525696253327,"forecast_date":"2026-09-30","group_id":"ARAB_LISTS","headline_seats":5,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.672688319979075,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.32731168002092503,"p_represented":0.672688319979075,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_raam","raw_b5_point_pp":4.023588423398455,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":7.0,"seat_range_display":"0, 4–8","seat_range_high":8,"seat_range_low":4,"seat_range_mode":"ZERO_SEPARATED_CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":3.92467460553003,"vote_q10_pp":2.326461532844065,"vote_q2_5_pp":1.7672599452792785,"vote_q90_pp":5.657308569296286,"vote_q97_5_pp":6.91231927197825,"zero_seat_probability":0.32731168002092503},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":5.64224365367504,"contest_party_id":"HADASH_TAAL_BALAD","display_name_en":"Joint List","display_name_he":"הרשימה המשותפת","expected_seats":7.228872628375351,"forecast_date":"2026-09-30","group_id":"ARAB_LISTS","headline_seats":7,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.9838045888799348,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.016195411120065187,"p_represented":0.9838045888799349,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_joint_list","raw_b5_point_pp":5.746914304041212,"seat_q10":5.0,"seat_q90":10.0,"seat_range_display":"5–10","seat_range_high":10,"seat_range_low":5,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":5.688764886744857,"vote_q10_pp":4.044349400887137,"vote_q2_5_pp":3.4129138352799235,"vote_q90_pp":7.477688139255435,"vote_q97_5_pp":8.713762916911408,"zero_seat_probability":0.016195411120065187},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":1.2207565749966993,"contest_party_id":"BLUE_WHITE","display_name_en":"Blue and White","display_name_he":"כחול לבן","expected_seats":0.0696869251395608,"forecast_date":"2026-09-30","group_id":"UNCOMMITTED","headline_seats":0,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.012200371133580523,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.9877996288664195,"p_represented":0.012200371133580561,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_blue_white","raw_b5_point_pp":1.2434031306023683,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":0.0,"seat_range_display":"0","seat_range_high":null,"seat_range_low":null,"seat_range_mode":"ZERO_ONLY_RARE_REPRESENTATION","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":1.1019869974492624,"vote_q10_pp":0.3415931525193323,"vote_q2_5_pp":0.2056159592851375,"vote_q90_pp":2.175137224464939,"vote_q97_5_pp":3.0107593066402307,"zero_seat_probability":0.9877996288664195},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":2.562047576916164,"contest_party_id":"K26_NATIVE_LIST::RESERVISTS_AND_NEW_ECONOMIC_PARTY","display_name_en":"Reservists–Economic","display_name_he":"המילואימניקים והכלכלית","expected_seats":1.0233522900094663,"forecast_date":"2026-09-30","group_id":"UNCOMMITTED","headline_seats":0,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.19015444748039578,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.8098455525196042,"p_represented":0.19015444748039573,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_reservists_economic","raw_b5_point_pp":2.609576751940397,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":5.0,"seat_range_display":"0, 4–7","seat_range_high":7,"seat_range_low":4,"seat_range_mode":"ZERO_SEPARATED_CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":2.3449985429873212,"vote_q10_pp":1.020975149282331,"vote_q2_5_pp":0.7025267281640935,"vote_q90_pp":4.0158772699087235,"vote_q97_5_pp":5.379539678858809,"zero_seat_probability":0.8098455525196042},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":17.325179638512996,"contest_party_id":"LIKUD","display_name_en":"Likud","display_name_he":"הליכוד","expected_seats":23.2859,"forecast_date":"2026-10-01","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":24,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":1.0,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.0,"p_represented":1.0,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_likud","raw_b5_point_pp":17.646583309071026,"seat_q10":20.0,"seat_q90":27.0,"seat_range_display":"20–27","seat_range_high":27,"seat_range_low":20,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":17.325150947492453,"vote_q10_pp":14.791972906830821,"vote_q2_5_pp":13.541496637180607,"vote_q90_pp":20.01788506861565,"vote_q97_5_pp":21.528286208639965,"zero_seat_probability":0.0},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":5.674072203137139,"contest_party_id":"SHAS","display_name_en":"Shas","display_name_he":"ש״ס","expected_seats":7.16395,"forecast_date":"2026-10-01","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":7,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.96695,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.03305,"p_represented":0.96695,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_shas","raw_b5_point_pp":5.779333312756207,"seat_q10":5.0,"seat_q90":10.0,"seat_range_display":"5–10","seat_range_high":10,"seat_range_low":5,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":5.674140998672439,"vote_q10_pp":3.8258996602364728,"vote_q2_5_pp":3.136767363576,"vote_q90_pp":7.790819124548844,"vote_q97_5_pp":9.309841947263143,"zero_seat_probability":0.03305},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":5.9112369834026435,"contest_party_id":"UNITED_TORAH_JUDAISM","display_name_en":"United Torah Judaism","display_name_he":"יהדות התורה","expected_seats":7.53855,"forecast_date":"2026-10-01","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":8,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.98015,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.01985,"p_represented":0.98015,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_utj","raw_b5_point_pp":6.020897795217872,"seat_q10":5.0,"seat_q90":11.0,"seat_range_display":"5–11","seat_range_high":11,"seat_range_low":5,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":5.911285385242453,"vote_q10_pp":4.030865093986467,"vote_q2_5_pp":3.3329205734221574,"vote_q90_pp":8.031188209360646,"vote_q97_5_pp":9.591692870205971,"zero_seat_probability":0.01985},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":6.148316043002528,"contest_party_id":"OTZMA_YEHUDIT","display_name_en":"Otzma Yehudit","display_name_he":"עוצמה יהודית","expected_seats":7.88355,"forecast_date":"2026-10-01","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":8,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.98515,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.01485,"p_represented":0.98515,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_otzma","raw_b5_point_pp":6.262374966788755,"seat_q10":5.0,"seat_q90":11.0,"seat_range_display":"5–11","seat_range_high":11,"seat_range_low":5,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":6.148164616000042,"vote_q10_pp":4.1708658123357045,"vote_q2_5_pp":3.4638551793197605,"vote_q90_pp":8.384553314465247,"vote_q97_5_pp":10.02981277202267,"zero_seat_probability":0.01485},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":4.6553497364986365,"contest_party_id":"K26_NATIVE_LIST::RZP_AND_ZEHUT","display_name_en":"Religious Zionism–Zehut","display_name_he":"הציונות הדתית וזהות","expected_seats":5.2554,"forecast_date":"2026-10-01","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":6,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.81415,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.18585,"p_represented":0.81415,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_religious_zionism_zehut","raw_b5_point_pp":4.741712274969288,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":9.0,"seat_range_display":"4–9","seat_range_high":9,"seat_range_low":4,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":4.655489778967294,"vote_q10_pp":2.8475286133547955,"vote_q2_5_pp":2.2591607453194733,"vote_q90_pp":6.77551479681639,"vote_q97_5_pp":8.485338012258689,"zero_seat_probability":0.18585},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":3.1153946705796183,"contest_party_id":"WINTER_NEW_PARTY","display_name_en":"Amcha Yisrael","display_name_he":"עמך ישראל","expected_seats":2.1906,"forecast_date":"2026-10-01","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":0,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.37755000000000005,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.62245,"p_represented":0.37755,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_amcha_yisrael","raw_b5_point_pp":3.1731891236965937,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":6.0,"seat_range_display":"0, 4–8","seat_range_high":8,"seat_range_low":4,"seat_range_mode":"ZERO_SEPARATED_CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":3.115351695445971,"vote_q10_pp":1.5144346556538295,"vote_q2_5_pp":1.097259122286272,"vote_q90_pp":5.09005736743324,"vote_q97_5_pp":6.952522679686595,"zero_seat_probability":0.62245},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":0.5926263449995827,"contest_party_id":"K26_NATIVE_LIST::HAREDI_PUBLIC","display_name_en":"Haredi Public","display_name_he":"הציבור החרדי","expected_seats":0.08185,"forecast_date":"2026-10-01","group_id":"UNCOMMITTED","headline_seats":0,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.013399999999999967,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.9866,"p_represented":0.0134,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_haredi_public","raw_b5_point_pp":0.6036203021490281,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":0.0,"seat_range_display":"0","seat_range_high":null,"seat_range_low":null,"seat_range_mode":"ZERO_ONLY_RARE_REPRESENTATION","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":0.5926536651619125,"vote_q10_pp":0.10039561671582461,"vote_q2_5_pp":0.05140403424748308,"vote_q90_pp":1.3024899227684423,"vote_q97_5_pp":2.4877574377662803,"zero_seat_probability":0.9866},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":9.496255939717082,"contest_party_id":"K26_NATIVE_LIST::BEYAHAD_BENNETT","display_name_en":"Beyachad","display_name_he":"ביחד","expected_seats":12.5341,"forecast_date":"2026-10-01","group_id":"CHANGE_CORE","headline_seats":13,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":1.0,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.0,"p_represented":1.0,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_beyachad","raw_b5_point_pp":9.672423320331067,"seat_q10":9.0,"seat_q90":16.0,"seat_range_display":"9–16","seat_range_high":16,"seat_range_low":9,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":9.49634907726322,"vote_q10_pp":7.182914664713341,"vote_q2_5_pp":6.272490011391625,"vote_q90_pp":12.024705373529779,"vote_q97_5_pp":13.711207555826455,"zero_seat_probability":0.0},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":17.11954298996529,"contest_party_id":"YASHAR_GADI_EISENKOT","display_name_en":"Yashar!","display_name_he":"ישר!","expected_seats":22.9982,"forecast_date":"2026-10-01","group_id":"CHANGE_CORE","headline_seats":23,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":1.0,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.0,"p_represented":1.0,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_yashar","raw_b5_point_pp":17.437131844456562,"seat_q10":19.0,"seat_q90":27.0,"seat_range_display":"19–27","seat_range_high":27,"seat_range_low":19,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":17.119525988102467,"vote_q10_pp":14.523245106000088,"vote_q2_5_pp":13.285808111405123,"vote_q90_pp":19.86481937153941,"vote_q97_5_pp":21.50663021886699,"zero_seat_probability":0.0},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":6.636587551468527,"contest_party_id":"YISRAEL_BEITEINU","display_name_en":"Yisrael Beiteinu","display_name_he":"ישראל ביתנו","expected_seats":8.5921,"forecast_date":"2026-10-01","group_id":"CHANGE_CORE","headline_seats":9,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.99485,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.00515,"p_represented":0.99485,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_yisrael_beiteinu","raw_b5_point_pp":6.759704520153811,"seat_q10":6.0,"seat_q90":12.0,"seat_range_display":"6–12","seat_range_high":12,"seat_range_low":6,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":6.636527147569343,"vote_q10_pp":4.592747453410133,"vote_q2_5_pp":3.8399149910764185,"vote_q90_pp":8.946178836287757,"vote_q97_5_pp":10.641574066795956,"zero_seat_probability":0.00515},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":7.5500847560611195,"contest_party_id":"THE_DEMOCRATS","display_name_en":"The Democrats","display_name_he":"הדמוקרטים","expected_seats":9.86785,"forecast_date":"2026-10-01","group_id":"CHANGE_CORE","headline_seats":10,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.9997,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.0003,"p_represented":0.9997,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_democrats","raw_b5_point_pp":7.690148236166573,"seat_q10":7.0,"seat_q90":13.0,"seat_range_display":"7–13","seat_range_high":13,"seat_range_low":7,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":7.549967772262418,"vote_q10_pp":5.370269934869379,"vote_q2_5_pp":4.536197441318902,"vote_q90_pp":9.978788866364726,"vote_q97_5_pp":11.65036365391705,"zero_seat_probability":0.0003},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":3.9503053370669323,"contest_party_id":"RAAM","display_name_en":"Raam","display_name_he":"רע״ם","expected_seats":3.769,"forecast_date":"2026-10-01","group_id":"ARAB_LISTS","headline_seats":5,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.62495,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.37505,"p_represented":0.62495,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_raam","raw_b5_point_pp":4.023588423398455,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":8.0,"seat_range_display":"0, 4–8","seat_range_high":8,"seat_range_low":4,"seat_range_mode":"ZERO_SEPARATED_CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":3.9502532137321706,"vote_q10_pp":2.215372262888162,"vote_q2_5_pp":1.6957526828816518,"vote_q90_pp":6.00735343883808,"vote_q97_5_pp":7.781425460934729,"zero_seat_probability":0.37505},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":5.64224365367504,"contest_party_id":"HADASH_TAAL_BALAD","display_name_en":"Joint List","display_name_he":"הרשימה המשותפת","expected_seats":7.10305,"forecast_date":"2026-10-01","group_id":"ARAB_LISTS","headline_seats":7,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.9618,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.0382,"p_represented":0.9618,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_joint_list","raw_b5_point_pp":5.746914304041212,"seat_q10":5.0,"seat_q90":10.0,"seat_range_display":"5–10","seat_range_high":10,"seat_range_low":5,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":5.6423716406985305,"vote_q10_pp":3.74711857505541,"vote_q2_5_pp":3.074589596354363,"vote_q90_pp":7.820992880256256,"vote_q97_5_pp":9.438907634307956,"zero_seat_probability":0.0382},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":1.2207565749966993,"contest_party_id":"BLUE_WHITE","display_name_en":"Blue and White","display_name_he":"כחול לבן","expected_seats":0.2869,"forecast_date":"2026-10-01","group_id":"UNCOMMITTED","headline_seats":0,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.04964999999999997,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.95035,"p_represented":0.04965,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_blue_white","raw_b5_point_pp":1.2434031306023683,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":0.0,"seat_range_display":"0","seat_range_high":null,"seat_range_low":null,"seat_range_mode":"ZERO_ONLY_RARE_REPRESENTATION","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":1.220721277986494,"vote_q10_pp":0.3365966867940353,"vote_q2_5_pp":0.20203828120460265,"vote_q90_pp":2.4435197629157477,"vote_q97_5_pp":4.093088733806041,"zero_seat_probability":0.95035},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":2.562047576916164,"contest_party_id":"K26_NATIVE_LIST::RESERVISTS_AND_NEW_ECONOMIC_PARTY","display_name_en":"Reservists–Economic","display_name_he":"המילואימניקים והכלכלית","expected_seats":1.449,"forecast_date":"2026-10-01","group_id":"UNCOMMITTED","headline_seats":0,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.24495,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.75505,"p_represented":0.24495,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_reservists_economic","raw_b5_point_pp":2.609576751940397,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":6.0,"seat_range_display":"0, 4–9","seat_range_high":9,"seat_range_low":4,"seat_range_mode":"ZERO_SEPARATED_CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":2.562046795402785,"vote_q10_pp":1.0313445678646473,"vote_q2_5_pp":0.6865138118691153,"vote_q90_pp":4.541056796301895,"vote_q97_5_pp":6.613184805136717,"zero_seat_probability":0.75505},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":17.325179638512996,"contest_party_id":"LIKUD","display_name_en":"Likud","display_name_he":"הליכוד","expected_seats":23.68325253577254,"forecast_date":"2026-10-01","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":24,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":1.0,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.0,"p_represented":1.0,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_likud","raw_b5_point_pp":17.646583309071026,"seat_q10":20.0,"seat_q90":27.0,"seat_range_display":"20–27","seat_range_high":27,"seat_range_low":20,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":17.667246786766956,"vote_q10_pp":15.186519085061875,"vote_q2_5_pp":13.984789534203044,"vote_q90_pp":20.24237344115565,"vote_q97_5_pp":21.726466806880744,"zero_seat_probability":0.0},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":5.674072203137139,"contest_party_id":"SHAS","display_name_en":"Shas","display_name_he":"ש״ס","expected_seats":7.5671686799550315,"forecast_date":"2026-10-01","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":8,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.9892063157654264,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.010793684234573577,"p_represented":0.9892063157654264,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_shas","raw_b5_point_pp":5.779333312756207,"seat_q10":5.0,"seat_q90":10.0,"seat_range_display":"5–10","seat_range_high":10,"seat_range_low":5,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":5.92119803677854,"vote_q10_pp":4.200750603597294,"vote_q2_5_pp":3.5357741740866073,"vote_q90_pp":7.821270402568342,"vote_q97_5_pp":9.054966317873923,"zero_seat_probability":0.010793684234573577},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":5.9112369834026435,"contest_party_id":"UNITED_TORAH_JUDAISM","display_name_en":"United Torah Judaism","display_name_he":"יהדות התורה","expected_seats":7.569125229641497,"forecast_date":"2026-10-01","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":8,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.9926093770276284,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.007390622972371573,"p_represented":0.9926093770276283,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_utj","raw_b5_point_pp":6.020897795217872,"seat_q10":5.0,"seat_q90":10.0,"seat_range_display":"5–10","seat_range_high":10,"seat_range_low":5,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":5.917129600385859,"vote_q10_pp":4.2810715960132955,"vote_q2_5_pp":3.6412157730804884,"vote_q90_pp":7.660409928113128,"vote_q97_5_pp":8.801028598874671,"zero_seat_probability":0.007390622972371573},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":6.148316043002528,"contest_party_id":"OTZMA_YEHUDIT","display_name_en":"Otzma Yehudit","display_name_he":"עוצמה יהודית","expected_seats":7.857940549310348,"forecast_date":"2026-10-01","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":8,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.994683515039228,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.005316484960771922,"p_represented":0.9946835150392281,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_otzma","raw_b5_point_pp":6.262374966788755,"seat_q10":6.0,"seat_q90":10.0,"seat_range_display":"6–10","seat_range_high":10,"seat_range_low":6,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":6.123439301907313,"vote_q10_pp":4.448531619435316,"vote_q2_5_pp":3.7444660197277733,"vote_q90_pp":7.959900187384129,"vote_q97_5_pp":9.20928483029388,"zero_seat_probability":0.005316484960771922},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":4.6553497364986365,"contest_party_id":"K26_NATIVE_LIST::RZP_AND_ZEHUT","display_name_en":"Religious Zionism–Zehut","display_name_he":"הציונות הדתית וזהות","expected_seats":5.5881253478623005,"forecast_date":"2026-10-01","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":6,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.8826681067888535,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.11733189321114651,"p_represented":0.8826681067888533,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_religious_zionism_zehut","raw_b5_point_pp":4.741712274969288,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":8.0,"seat_range_display":"4–9","seat_range_high":9,"seat_range_low":4,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":4.74259533602768,"vote_q10_pp":3.1333810516923295,"vote_q2_5_pp":2.424327993214818,"vote_q90_pp":6.51029326470409,"vote_q97_5_pp":7.744426161845443,"zero_seat_probability":0.11733189321114651},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":3.1153946705796183,"contest_party_id":"WINTER_NEW_PARTY","display_name_en":"Amcha Yisrael","display_name_he":"עמך ישראל","expected_seats":1.8597224188953718,"forecast_date":"2026-10-01","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":0,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.34407680452872114,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.6559231954712789,"p_represented":0.3440768045287211,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_amcha_yisrael","raw_b5_point_pp":3.1731891236965937,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":6.0,"seat_range_display":"0, 4–7","seat_range_high":7,"seat_range_low":4,"seat_range_mode":"ZERO_SEPARATED_CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":2.939550455353271,"vote_q10_pp":1.4979450304345026,"vote_q2_5_pp":1.0975384229539564,"vote_q90_pp":4.660032154802063,"vote_q97_5_pp":5.980027951812103,"zero_seat_probability":0.6559231954712789},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":0.5926263449995827,"contest_party_id":"K26_NATIVE_LIST::HAREDI_PUBLIC","display_name_en":"Haredi Public","display_name_he":"הציבור החרדי","expected_seats":0.0192742293354324,"forecast_date":"2026-10-01","group_id":"UNCOMMITTED","headline_seats":0,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.0032037013514240043,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.996796298648576,"p_represented":0.0032037013514239956,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_haredi_public","raw_b5_point_pp":0.6036203021490281,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":0.0,"seat_range_display":"0","seat_range_high":null,"seat_range_low":null,"seat_range_mode":"ZERO_ONLY_RARE_REPRESENTATION","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":0.5398082565894704,"vote_q10_pp":0.09935717404249111,"vote_q2_5_pp":0.051432869905000386,"vote_q90_pp":1.2174590916366868,"vote_q97_5_pp":2.146862133421879,"zero_seat_probability":0.996796298648576},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":9.496255939717082,"contest_party_id":"K26_NATIVE_LIST::BEYAHAD_BENNETT","display_name_en":"Beyachad","display_name_he":"ביחד","expected_seats":12.487743099292588,"forecast_date":"2026-10-01","group_id":"CHANGE_CORE","headline_seats":13,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":1.0,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.0,"p_represented":1.0,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_beyachad","raw_b5_point_pp":9.672423320331067,"seat_q10":9.0,"seat_q90":16.0,"seat_range_display":"9–16","seat_range_high":16,"seat_range_low":9,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":9.494196117300325,"vote_q10_pp":7.3170374291782725,"vote_q2_5_pp":6.437136378383241,"vote_q90_pp":11.78278993053454,"vote_q97_5_pp":13.276020260153205,"zero_seat_probability":0.0},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":17.11954298996529,"contest_party_id":"YASHAR_GADI_EISENKOT","display_name_en":"Yashar!","display_name_he":"ישר!","expected_seats":23.107794192300716,"forecast_date":"2026-10-01","group_id":"CHANGE_CORE","headline_seats":23,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":1.0,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.0,"p_represented":1.0,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_yashar","raw_b5_point_pp":17.437131844456562,"seat_q10":20.0,"seat_q90":26.0,"seat_range_display":"20–26","seat_range_high":26,"seat_range_low":20,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":17.25542460642623,"vote_q10_pp":15.04622747291788,"vote_q2_5_pp":13.998560280295825,"vote_q90_pp":19.576115469243916,"vote_q97_5_pp":20.932772237912527,"zero_seat_probability":0.0},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":6.636587551468527,"contest_party_id":"YISRAEL_BEITEINU","display_name_en":"Yisrael Beiteinu","display_name_he":"ישראל ביתנו","expected_seats":8.346527089099032,"forecast_date":"2026-10-01","group_id":"CHANGE_CORE","headline_seats":8,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.9980915606053039,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.0019084393946960394,"p_represented":0.9980915606053039,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_yisrael_beiteinu","raw_b5_point_pp":6.759704520153811,"seat_q10":6.0,"seat_q90":11.0,"seat_range_display":"6–11","seat_range_high":11,"seat_range_low":6,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":6.471170958423219,"vote_q10_pp":4.7634076469394975,"vote_q2_5_pp":4.061201374071272,"vote_q90_pp":8.310344876192886,"vote_q97_5_pp":9.634255148306572,"zero_seat_probability":0.0019084393946960394},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":7.5500847560611195,"contest_party_id":"THE_DEMOCRATS","display_name_en":"The Democrats","display_name_he":"הדמוקרטים","expected_seats":9.733610980040876,"forecast_date":"2026-10-01","group_id":"CHANGE_CORE","headline_seats":10,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.9999378714413428,"p_below_legal_threshold":6.212855865719959e-05,"p_represented":0.9999378714413427,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_democrats","raw_b5_point_pp":7.690148236166573,"seat_q10":7.0,"seat_q90":12.0,"seat_range_display":"7–12","seat_range_high":12,"seat_range_low":7,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":7.475823309714681,"vote_q10_pp":5.662395260344798,"vote_q2_5_pp":4.863024545103492,"vote_q90_pp":9.400232350031429,"vote_q97_5_pp":10.754511395841611,"zero_seat_probability":6.212855865719959e-05},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":3.9503053370669323,"contest_party_id":"RAAM","display_name_en":"Raam","display_name_he":"רע״ם","expected_seats":3.844794555987204,"forecast_date":"2026-10-01","group_id":"ARAB_LISTS","headline_seats":5,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.6709623262448351,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.3290376737551649,"p_represented":0.670962326244835,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_raam","raw_b5_point_pp":4.023588423398455,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":7.0,"seat_range_display":"0, 4–8","seat_range_high":8,"seat_range_low":4,"seat_range_mode":"ZERO_SEPARATED_CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":3.9155705701089945,"vote_q10_pp":2.297138646052345,"vote_q2_5_pp":1.7269673787042672,"vote_q90_pp":5.65630992549829,"vote_q97_5_pp":6.889481915705397,"zero_seat_probability":0.3290376737551649},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":5.64224365367504,"contest_party_id":"HADASH_TAAL_BALAD","display_name_en":"Joint List","display_name_he":"הרשימה המשותפת","expected_seats":7.2308220468192586,"forecast_date":"2026-10-01","group_id":"ARAB_LISTS","headline_seats":7,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.9833102063661042,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.01668979363389582,"p_represented":0.9833102063661041,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_joint_list","raw_b5_point_pp":5.746914304041212,"seat_q10":5.0,"seat_q90":10.0,"seat_range_display":"5–10","seat_range_high":10,"seat_range_low":5,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":5.693751328890297,"vote_q10_pp":4.018283032454936,"vote_q2_5_pp":3.381737233301919,"vote_q90_pp":7.499224530711896,"vote_q97_5_pp":8.68639754038273,"zero_seat_probability":0.01668979363389582},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":1.2207565749966993,"contest_party_id":"BLUE_WHITE","display_name_en":"Blue and White","display_name_he":"כחול לבן","expected_seats":0.07271519607901622,"forecast_date":"2026-10-01","group_id":"UNCOMMITTED","headline_seats":0,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.012531326323520942,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.9874686736764791,"p_represented":0.01253132632352098,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_blue_white","raw_b5_point_pp":1.2434031306023683,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":0.0,"seat_range_display":"0","seat_range_high":null,"seat_range_low":null,"seat_range_mode":"ZERO_ONLY_RARE_REPRESENTATION","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":1.0965053116961607,"vote_q10_pp":0.3278478896723989,"vote_q2_5_pp":0.19961381883006707,"vote_q90_pp":2.16382665206136,"vote_q97_5_pp":2.989935835535982,"zero_seat_probability":0.9874686736764791},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":2.562047576916164,"contest_party_id":"K26_NATIVE_LIST::RESERVISTS_AND_NEW_ECONOMIC_PARTY","display_name_en":"Reservists–Economic","display_name_he":"המילואימניקים והכלכלית","expected_seats":1.0313838496087806,"forecast_date":"2026-10-01","group_id":"UNCOMMITTED","headline_seats":0,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.19162148570944515,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.8083785142905549,"p_represented":0.19162148570944504,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_reservists_economic","raw_b5_point_pp":2.609576751940397,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":5.0,"seat_range_display":"0, 4–7","seat_range_high":7,"seat_range_low":4,"seat_range_mode":"ZERO_SEPARATED_CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":2.346590023630996,"vote_q10_pp":1.0042958589052864,"vote_q2_5_pp":0.6831249910215308,"vote_q90_pp":3.988317130344293,"vote_q97_5_pp":5.430216718015743,"zero_seat_probability":0.8083785142905549},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":17.325179638512996,"contest_party_id":"LIKUD","display_name_en":"Likud","display_name_he":"הליכוד","expected_seats":23.2935,"forecast_date":"2026-10-02","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":24,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":1.0,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.0,"p_represented":1.0,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_likud","raw_b5_point_pp":17.646583309071026,"seat_q10":20.0,"seat_q90":27.0,"seat_range_display":"20–27","seat_range_high":27,"seat_range_low":20,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":17.32516199146695,"vote_q10_pp":14.777103478215032,"vote_q2_5_pp":13.641937272224467,"vote_q90_pp":20.00994260642613,"vote_q97_5_pp":21.54268995373426,"zero_seat_probability":0.0},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":5.674072203137139,"contest_party_id":"SHAS","display_name_en":"Shas","display_name_he":"ש״ס","expected_seats":7.1659,"forecast_date":"2026-10-02","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":7,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.96685,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.03315,"p_represented":0.96685,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_shas","raw_b5_point_pp":5.779333312756207,"seat_q10":5.0,"seat_q90":10.0,"seat_range_display":"5–10","seat_range_high":10,"seat_range_low":5,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":5.673958167845477,"vote_q10_pp":3.817134641123024,"vote_q2_5_pp":3.158334824567505,"vote_q90_pp":7.775337439964153,"vote_q97_5_pp":9.295849390973212,"zero_seat_probability":0.03315},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":5.9112369834026435,"contest_party_id":"UNITED_TORAH_JUDAISM","display_name_en":"United Torah Judaism","display_name_he":"יהדות התורה","expected_seats":7.5522,"forecast_date":"2026-10-02","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":8,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.9817,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.0183,"p_represented":0.9817,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_utj","raw_b5_point_pp":6.020897795217872,"seat_q10":5.0,"seat_q90":11.0,"seat_range_display":"5–11","seat_range_high":11,"seat_range_low":5,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":5.911248913453477,"vote_q10_pp":4.05528612229762,"vote_q2_5_pp":3.3724241326074518,"vote_q90_pp":7.996943019077136,"vote_q97_5_pp":9.582924638942755,"zero_seat_probability":0.0183},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":6.148316043002528,"contest_party_id":"OTZMA_YEHUDIT","display_name_en":"Otzma Yehudit","display_name_he":"עוצמה יהודית","expected_seats":7.88695,"forecast_date":"2026-10-02","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":8,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.98445,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.01555,"p_represented":0.98445,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_otzma","raw_b5_point_pp":6.262374966788755,"seat_q10":5.0,"seat_q90":11.0,"seat_range_display":"5–11","seat_range_high":11,"seat_range_low":5,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":6.148302395894823,"vote_q10_pp":4.13852628279585,"vote_q2_5_pp":3.429220828543586,"vote_q90_pp":8.420798650951859,"vote_q97_5_pp":10.052352452885813,"zero_seat_probability":0.01555},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":4.6553497364986365,"contest_party_id":"K26_NATIVE_LIST::RZP_AND_ZEHUT","display_name_en":"Religious Zionism–Zehut","display_name_he":"הציונות הדתית וזהות","expected_seats":5.26105,"forecast_date":"2026-10-02","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":6,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.81465,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.18535,"p_represented":0.81465,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_religious_zionism_zehut","raw_b5_point_pp":4.741712274969288,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":9.0,"seat_range_display":"4–9","seat_range_high":9,"seat_range_low":4,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":4.655443870896088,"vote_q10_pp":2.849815241432382,"vote_q2_5_pp":2.266661872740408,"vote_q90_pp":6.774201181457383,"vote_q97_5_pp":8.415491822845688,"zero_seat_probability":0.18535},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":3.1153946705796183,"contest_party_id":"WINTER_NEW_PARTY","display_name_en":"Amcha Yisrael","display_name_he":"עמך ישראל","expected_seats":2.1732,"forecast_date":"2026-10-02","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":0,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.37415,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.62585,"p_represented":0.37415,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_amcha_yisrael","raw_b5_point_pp":3.1731891236965937,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":6.0,"seat_range_display":"0, 4–8","seat_range_high":8,"seat_range_low":4,"seat_range_mode":"ZERO_SEPARATED_CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":3.115350325070611,"vote_q10_pp":1.5281703773510318,"vote_q2_5_pp":1.0985098704144114,"vote_q90_pp":5.108161606311165,"vote_q97_5_pp":6.967205676047997,"zero_seat_probability":0.62585},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":0.5926263449995827,"contest_party_id":"K26_NATIVE_LIST::HAREDI_PUBLIC","display_name_en":"Haredi Public","display_name_he":"הציבור החרדי","expected_seats":0.0767,"forecast_date":"2026-10-02","group_id":"UNCOMMITTED","headline_seats":0,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.01265000000000005,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.98735,"p_represented":0.01265,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_haredi_public","raw_b5_point_pp":0.6036203021490281,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":0.0,"seat_range_display":"0","seat_range_high":null,"seat_range_low":null,"seat_range_mode":"ZERO_ONLY_RARE_REPRESENTATION","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":0.5927669125066435,"vote_q10_pp":0.10100649527721707,"vote_q2_5_pp":0.05198374940953138,"vote_q90_pp":1.309056779930922,"vote_q97_5_pp":2.461683940612432,"zero_seat_probability":0.98735},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":9.496255939717082,"contest_party_id":"K26_NATIVE_LIST::BEYAHAD_BENNETT","display_name_en":"Beyachad","display_name_he":"ביחד","expected_seats":12.54815,"forecast_date":"2026-10-02","group_id":"CHANGE_CORE","headline_seats":13,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":1.0,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.0,"p_represented":1.0,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_beyachad","raw_b5_point_pp":9.672423320331067,"seat_q10":9.0,"seat_q90":16.0,"seat_range_display":"9–16","seat_range_high":16,"seat_range_low":9,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":9.496178611995163,"vote_q10_pp":7.221284444253184,"vote_q2_5_pp":6.26690065978728,"vote_q90_pp":11.981477645686201,"vote_q97_5_pp":13.670796423199759,"zero_seat_probability":0.0},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":17.11954298996529,"contest_party_id":"YASHAR_GADI_EISENKOT","display_name_en":"Yashar!","display_name_he":"ישר!","expected_seats":23.01345,"forecast_date":"2026-10-02","group_id":"CHANGE_CORE","headline_seats":23,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":1.0,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.0,"p_represented":1.0,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_yashar","raw_b5_point_pp":17.437131844456562,"seat_q10":19.0,"seat_q90":27.0,"seat_range_display":"19–27","seat_range_high":27,"seat_range_low":19,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":17.119379931257626,"vote_q10_pp":14.533906569871014,"vote_q2_5_pp":13.289460843050323,"vote_q90_pp":19.819175819765633,"vote_q97_5_pp":21.471695901452264,"zero_seat_probability":0.0},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":6.636587551468527,"contest_party_id":"YISRAEL_BEITEINU","display_name_en":"Yisrael Beiteinu","display_name_he":"ישראל ביתנו","expected_seats":8.5904,"forecast_date":"2026-10-02","group_id":"CHANGE_CORE","headline_seats":9,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.994,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.006,"p_represented":0.994,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_yisrael_beiteinu","raw_b5_point_pp":6.759704520153811,"seat_q10":6.0,"seat_q90":12.0,"seat_range_display":"6–12","seat_range_high":12,"seat_range_low":6,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":6.63659730312528,"vote_q10_pp":4.603171746319873,"vote_q2_5_pp":3.849914345295526,"vote_q90_pp":8.959512705183618,"vote_q97_5_pp":10.58388855143639,"zero_seat_probability":0.006},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":7.5500847560611195,"contest_party_id":"THE_DEMOCRATS","display_name_en":"The Democrats","display_name_he":"הדמוקרטים","expected_seats":9.86595,"forecast_date":"2026-10-02","group_id":"CHANGE_CORE","headline_seats":10,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.99915,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.00085,"p_represented":0.99915,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_democrats","raw_b5_point_pp":7.690148236166573,"seat_q10":7.0,"seat_q90":13.0,"seat_range_display":"7–13","seat_range_high":13,"seat_range_low":7,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":7.549880994296534,"vote_q10_pp":5.402066896130249,"vote_q2_5_pp":4.602185515726653,"vote_q90_pp":9.932400255889846,"vote_q97_5_pp":11.622647324642312,"zero_seat_probability":0.00085},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":3.9503053370669323,"contest_party_id":"RAAM","display_name_en":"Raam","display_name_he":"רע״ם","expected_seats":3.74215,"forecast_date":"2026-10-02","group_id":"ARAB_LISTS","headline_seats":5,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.6186,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.3814,"p_represented":0.6186,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_raam","raw_b5_point_pp":4.023588423398455,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":8.0,"seat_range_display":"0, 4–8","seat_range_high":8,"seat_range_low":4,"seat_range_mode":"ZERO_SEPARATED_CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":3.950323964895164,"vote_q10_pp":2.227054717392996,"vote_q2_5_pp":1.695381932667172,"vote_q90_pp":6.023070260332729,"vote_q97_5_pp":7.705087127589076,"zero_seat_probability":0.3814},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":5.64224365367504,"contest_party_id":"HADASH_TAAL_BALAD","display_name_en":"Joint List","display_name_he":"הרשימה המשותפת","expected_seats":7.1186,"forecast_date":"2026-10-02","group_id":"ARAB_LISTS","headline_seats":7,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.9659,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.0341,"p_represented":0.9659,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_joint_list","raw_b5_point_pp":5.746914304041212,"seat_q10":5.0,"seat_q90":10.0,"seat_range_display":"5–10","seat_range_high":10,"seat_range_low":5,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":5.642170081161427,"vote_q10_pp":3.7893184013889334,"vote_q2_5_pp":3.130097869083128,"vote_q90_pp":7.767392597566437,"vote_q97_5_pp":9.332749556913367,"zero_seat_probability":0.0341},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":1.2207565749966993,"contest_party_id":"BLUE_WHITE","display_name_en":"Blue and White","display_name_he":"כחול לבן","expected_seats":0.26675,"forecast_date":"2026-10-02","group_id":"UNCOMMITTED","headline_seats":0,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.04600000000000004,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.954,"p_represented":0.046,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_blue_white","raw_b5_point_pp":1.2434031306023683,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":0.0,"seat_range_display":"0","seat_range_high":null,"seat_range_low":null,"seat_range_mode":"ZERO_ONLY_RARE_REPRESENTATION","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":1.220830691394069,"vote_q10_pp":0.3462205372210435,"vote_q2_5_pp":0.20834016813235828,"vote_q90_pp":2.4192381005855466,"vote_q97_5_pp":4.026228693479685,"zero_seat_probability":0.954},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":2.562047576916164,"contest_party_id":"K26_NATIVE_LIST::RESERVISTS_AND_NEW_ECONOMIC_PARTY","display_name_en":"Reservists–Economic","display_name_he":"המילואימניקים והכלכלית","expected_seats":1.44505,"forecast_date":"2026-10-02","group_id":"UNCOMMITTED","headline_seats":0,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.245,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.755,"p_represented":0.245,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_reservists_economic","raw_b5_point_pp":2.609576751940397,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":6.0,"seat_range_display":"0, 4–8","seat_range_high":8,"seat_range_low":4,"seat_range_mode":"ZERO_SEPARATED_CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":2.5624058447406655,"vote_q10_pp":1.0357136692770545,"vote_q2_5_pp":0.7095768268589633,"vote_q90_pp":4.552235189446681,"vote_q97_5_pp":6.549256962550743,"zero_seat_probability":0.755},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":17.325179638512996,"contest_party_id":"LIKUD","display_name_en":"Likud","display_name_he":"הליכוד","expected_seats":23.680919152796612,"forecast_date":"2026-10-02","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":24,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":1.0,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.0,"p_represented":0.9999999999999999,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_likud","raw_b5_point_pp":17.646583309071026,"seat_q10":20.0,"seat_q90":27.0,"seat_range_display":"20–27","seat_range_high":27,"seat_range_low":20,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":17.659965741604406,"vote_q10_pp":15.147957815116028,"vote_q2_5_pp":14.004702647966317,"vote_q90_pp":20.308364658571172,"vote_q97_5_pp":21.709633217170683,"zero_seat_probability":0.0},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":5.674072203137139,"contest_party_id":"SHAS","display_name_en":"Shas","display_name_he":"ש״ס","expected_seats":7.569222211018265,"forecast_date":"2026-10-02","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":8,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.989142404866524,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.010857595133475983,"p_represented":0.989142404866524,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_shas","raw_b5_point_pp":5.779333312756207,"seat_q10":5.0,"seat_q90":10.0,"seat_range_display":"5–10","seat_range_high":10,"seat_range_low":5,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":5.920133349662134,"vote_q10_pp":4.2077679194699655,"vote_q2_5_pp":3.5376142528475496,"vote_q90_pp":7.819448115258595,"vote_q97_5_pp":9.102632656664447,"zero_seat_probability":0.010857595133475983},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":5.9112369834026435,"contest_party_id":"UNITED_TORAH_JUDAISM","display_name_en":"United Torah Judaism","display_name_he":"יהדות התורה","expected_seats":7.554449047280489,"forecast_date":"2026-10-02","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":8,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.9926730214522264,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.007326978547773608,"p_represented":0.9926730214522264,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_utj","raw_b5_point_pp":6.020897795217872,"seat_q10":5.0,"seat_q90":10.0,"seat_range_display":"5–10","seat_range_high":10,"seat_range_low":5,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":5.898504588326894,"vote_q10_pp":4.315687025845961,"vote_q2_5_pp":3.667540114720786,"vote_q90_pp":7.621479472469145,"vote_q97_5_pp":8.793608086198876,"zero_seat_probability":0.007326978547773608},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":6.148316043002528,"contest_party_id":"OTZMA_YEHUDIT","display_name_en":"Otzma Yehudit","display_name_he":"עוצמה יהודית","expected_seats":7.855638098666644,"forecast_date":"2026-10-02","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":8,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.994458342464723,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.005541657535277042,"p_represented":0.9944583424647229,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_otzma","raw_b5_point_pp":6.262374966788755,"seat_q10":6.0,"seat_q90":10.0,"seat_range_display":"6–10","seat_range_high":10,"seat_range_low":6,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":6.1164954451339675,"vote_q10_pp":4.431872567244252,"vote_q2_5_pp":3.750252753395922,"vote_q90_pp":7.95960887385741,"vote_q97_5_pp":9.242090792927124,"zero_seat_probability":0.005541657535277042},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":4.6553497364986365,"contest_party_id":"K26_NATIVE_LIST::RZP_AND_ZEHUT","display_name_en":"Religious Zionism–Zehut","display_name_he":"הציונות הדתית וזהות","expected_seats":5.597297865647608,"forecast_date":"2026-10-02","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":6,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.8835106618045506,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.11648933819544939,"p_represented":0.8835106618045506,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_religious_zionism_zehut","raw_b5_point_pp":4.741712274969288,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":8.0,"seat_range_display":"4–9","seat_range_high":9,"seat_range_low":4,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":4.743768855805278,"vote_q10_pp":3.1530442789664246,"vote_q2_5_pp":2.447999449689716,"vote_q90_pp":6.51878540956866,"vote_q97_5_pp":7.704952777669507,"zero_seat_probability":0.11648933819544939},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":3.1153946705796183,"contest_party_id":"WINTER_NEW_PARTY","display_name_en":"Amcha Yisrael","display_name_he":"עמך ישראל","expected_seats":1.8453305575635972,"forecast_date":"2026-10-02","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":0,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.3422886596692095,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.6577113403307905,"p_represented":0.3422886596692095,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_amcha_yisrael","raw_b5_point_pp":3.1731891236965937,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":6.0,"seat_range_display":"0, 4–7","seat_range_high":7,"seat_range_low":4,"seat_range_mode":"ZERO_SEPARATED_CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":2.9501601426354327,"vote_q10_pp":1.5187047078568878,"vote_q2_5_pp":1.1016716263201027,"vote_q90_pp":4.661708926111367,"vote_q97_5_pp":5.97334850135241,"zero_seat_probability":0.6577113403307905},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":0.5926263449995827,"contest_party_id":"K26_NATIVE_LIST::HAREDI_PUBLIC","display_name_en":"Haredi Public","display_name_he":"הציבור החרדי","expected_seats":0.018228401241644723,"forecast_date":"2026-10-02","group_id":"UNCOMMITTED","headline_seats":0,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.0030808677779129434,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.9969191322220871,"p_represented":0.003080867777912881,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_haredi_public","raw_b5_point_pp":0.6036203021490281,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":0.0,"seat_range_display":"0","seat_range_high":null,"seat_range_low":null,"seat_range_mode":"ZERO_ONLY_RARE_REPRESENTATION","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":0.5450002928389612,"vote_q10_pp":0.09884517042791227,"vote_q2_5_pp":0.05127787748159944,"vote_q90_pp":1.2224312752433015,"vote_q97_5_pp":2.1483100401083117,"zero_seat_probability":0.9969191322220871},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":9.496255939717082,"contest_party_id":"K26_NATIVE_LIST::BEYAHAD_BENNETT","display_name_en":"Beyachad","display_name_he":"ביחד","expected_seats":12.52534860740068,"forecast_date":"2026-10-02","group_id":"CHANGE_CORE","headline_seats":13,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":1.0,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.0,"p_represented":0.9999999999999999,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_beyachad","raw_b5_point_pp":9.672423320331067,"seat_q10":10.0,"seat_q90":16.0,"seat_range_display":"10–16","seat_range_high":16,"seat_range_low":10,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":9.50931118972321,"vote_q10_pp":7.384042384494744,"vote_q2_5_pp":6.481240603324268,"vote_q90_pp":11.775126727272436,"vote_q97_5_pp":13.244092490090154,"zero_seat_probability":0.0},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":17.11954298996529,"contest_party_id":"YASHAR_GADI_EISENKOT","display_name_en":"Yashar!","display_name_he":"ישר!","expected_seats":23.12430110186868,"forecast_date":"2026-10-02","group_id":"CHANGE_CORE","headline_seats":23,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":1.0,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.0,"p_represented":0.9999999999999999,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_yashar","raw_b5_point_pp":17.437131844456562,"seat_q10":20.0,"seat_q90":26.0,"seat_range_display":"20–26","seat_range_high":26,"seat_range_low":20,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":17.25390142736757,"vote_q10_pp":15.042806661355996,"vote_q2_5_pp":14.00488077422976,"vote_q90_pp":19.55381537950193,"vote_q97_5_pp":20.907909035238653,"zero_seat_probability":0.0},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":6.636587551468527,"contest_party_id":"YISRAEL_BEITEINU","display_name_en":"Yisrael Beiteinu","display_name_he":"ישראל ביתנו","expected_seats":8.34455878538276,"forecast_date":"2026-10-02","group_id":"CHANGE_CORE","headline_seats":8,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.9980568289990893,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.0019431710009106466,"p_represented":0.9980568289990894,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_yisrael_beiteinu","raw_b5_point_pp":6.759704520153811,"seat_q10":6.0,"seat_q90":11.0,"seat_range_display":"6–11","seat_range_high":11,"seat_range_low":6,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":6.46889155570739,"vote_q10_pp":4.765984877308462,"vote_q2_5_pp":4.063151006343383,"vote_q90_pp":8.294430339666809,"vote_q97_5_pp":9.654369317179885,"zero_seat_probability":0.0019431710009106466},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":7.5500847560611195,"contest_party_id":"THE_DEMOCRATS","display_name_en":"The Democrats","display_name_he":"הדמוקרטים","expected_seats":9.72807141724005,"forecast_date":"2026-10-02","group_id":"CHANGE_CORE","headline_seats":10,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.9999044623157245,"p_below_legal_threshold":9.553768427547458e-05,"p_represented":0.9999044623157246,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_democrats","raw_b5_point_pp":7.690148236166573,"seat_q10":7.0,"seat_q90":12.0,"seat_range_display":"7–12","seat_range_high":12,"seat_range_low":7,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":7.470448012968967,"vote_q10_pp":5.655291688176423,"vote_q2_5_pp":4.902266591409123,"vote_q90_pp":9.420518599601571,"vote_q97_5_pp":10.751278041708243,"zero_seat_probability":9.553768427547458e-05},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":3.9503053370669323,"contest_party_id":"RAAM","display_name_en":"Raam","display_name_he":"רע״ם","expected_seats":3.8186630175027947,"forecast_date":"2026-10-02","group_id":"ARAB_LISTS","headline_seats":5,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.6630536513614338,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.33694634863856626,"p_represented":0.6630536513614338,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_raam","raw_b5_point_pp":4.023588423398455,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":7.0,"seat_range_display":"0, 4–8","seat_range_high":8,"seat_range_low":4,"seat_range_mode":"ZERO_SEPARATED_CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":3.9200866291551275,"vote_q10_pp":2.2998813016168254,"vote_q2_5_pp":1.7260158012117417,"vote_q90_pp":5.6665933871306615,"vote_q97_5_pp":6.915240121803259,"zero_seat_probability":0.33694634863856626},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":5.64224365367504,"contest_party_id":"HADASH_TAAL_BALAD","display_name_en":"Joint List","display_name_he":"הרשימה המשותפת","expected_seats":7.216304068329748,"forecast_date":"2026-10-02","group_id":"ARAB_LISTS","headline_seats":7,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.9853415669133224,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.014658433086677556,"p_represented":0.9853415669133223,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_joint_list","raw_b5_point_pp":5.746914304041212,"seat_q10":5.0,"seat_q90":10.0,"seat_range_display":"5–10","seat_range_high":10,"seat_range_low":5,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":5.677466640969826,"vote_q10_pp":4.043801407634501,"vote_q2_5_pp":3.4271991820316563,"vote_q90_pp":7.4596052403985205,"vote_q97_5_pp":8.65174139702179,"zero_seat_probability":0.014658433086677556},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":1.2207565749966993,"contest_party_id":"BLUE_WHITE","display_name_en":"Blue and White","display_name_he":"כחול לבן","expected_seats":0.0669761319549908,"forecast_date":"2026-10-02","group_id":"UNCOMMITTED","headline_seats":0,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.011647258583488251,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.9883527414165117,"p_represented":0.011647258583488324,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_blue_white","raw_b5_point_pp":1.2434031306023683,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":0.0,"seat_range_display":"0","seat_range_high":null,"seat_range_low":null,"seat_range_mode":"ZERO_ONLY_RARE_REPRESENTATION","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":1.1032329301624961,"vote_q10_pp":0.34443138703443515,"vote_q2_5_pp":0.20908219999826635,"vote_q90_pp":2.1499010111460604,"vote_q97_5_pp":2.9889798300022354,"zero_seat_probability":0.9883527414165117},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":2.562047576916164,"contest_party_id":"K26_NATIVE_LIST::RESERVISTS_AND_NEW_ECONOMIC_PARTY","display_name_en":"Reservists–Economic","display_name_he":"המילואימניקים והכלכלית","expected_seats":1.0546915361054265,"forecast_date":"2026-10-02","group_id":"UNCOMMITTED","headline_seats":0,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.1953132706285785,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.8046867293714215,"p_represented":0.1953132706285785,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_reservists_economic","raw_b5_point_pp":2.609576751940397,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":5.0,"seat_range_display":"0, 4–7","seat_range_high":7,"seat_range_low":4,"seat_range_mode":"ZERO_SEPARATED_CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":2.362633197938334,"vote_q10_pp":1.0264698850570688,"vote_q2_5_pp":0.7069045663516293,"vote_q90_pp":4.020519955296346,"vote_q97_5_pp":5.433331372622787,"zero_seat_probability":0.8046867293714215},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":17.325179638512996,"contest_party_id":"LIKUD","display_name_en":"Likud","display_name_he":"הליכוד","expected_seats":23.28605,"forecast_date":"2026-10-03","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":24,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":1.0,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.0,"p_represented":1.0,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_likud","raw_b5_point_pp":17.646583309071026,"seat_q10":20.0,"seat_q90":27.0,"seat_range_display":"20–27","seat_range_high":27,"seat_range_low":20,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":17.325135661987453,"vote_q10_pp":14.774961072014683,"vote_q2_5_pp":13.5654871959095,"vote_q90_pp":19.9628020678082,"vote_q97_5_pp":21.54578148161713,"zero_seat_probability":0.0},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":5.674072203137139,"contest_party_id":"SHAS","display_name_en":"Shas","display_name_he":"ש״ס","expected_seats":7.1705,"forecast_date":"2026-10-03","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":7,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.9674,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.0326,"p_represented":0.9674,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_shas","raw_b5_point_pp":5.779333312756207,"seat_q10":5.0,"seat_q90":10.0,"seat_range_display":"5–10","seat_range_high":10,"seat_range_low":5,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":5.674193748538001,"vote_q10_pp":3.806665196600193,"vote_q2_5_pp":3.1352718268116138,"vote_q90_pp":7.825603121404599,"vote_q97_5_pp":9.344963176467624,"zero_seat_probability":0.0326},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":5.9112369834026435,"contest_party_id":"UNITED_TORAH_JUDAISM","display_name_en":"United Torah Judaism","display_name_he":"יהדות התורה","expected_seats":7.5443,"forecast_date":"2026-10-03","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":8,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.9814,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.0186,"p_represented":0.9814,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_utj","raw_b5_point_pp":6.020897795217872,"seat_q10":5.0,"seat_q90":11.0,"seat_range_display":"5–11","seat_range_high":11,"seat_range_low":5,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":5.9111486827781405,"vote_q10_pp":4.034688797384244,"vote_q2_5_pp":3.356132713835595,"vote_q90_pp":8.02299824967212,"vote_q97_5_pp":9.563087685140843,"zero_seat_probability":0.0186},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":6.148316043002528,"contest_party_id":"OTZMA_YEHUDIT","display_name_en":"Otzma Yehudit","display_name_he":"עוצמה יהודית","expected_seats":7.88305,"forecast_date":"2026-10-03","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":8,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.9845,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.0155,"p_represented":0.9845,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_otzma","raw_b5_point_pp":6.262374966788755,"seat_q10":5.0,"seat_q90":11.0,"seat_range_display":"5–11","seat_range_high":11,"seat_range_low":5,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":6.148459846489372,"vote_q10_pp":4.132499086483781,"vote_q2_5_pp":3.427662988928313,"vote_q90_pp":8.420179924563477,"vote_q97_5_pp":10.071795014226954,"zero_seat_probability":0.0155},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":4.6553497364986365,"contest_party_id":"K26_NATIVE_LIST::RZP_AND_ZEHUT","display_name_en":"Religious Zionism–Zehut","display_name_he":"הציונות הדתית וזהות","expected_seats":5.2593,"forecast_date":"2026-10-03","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":6,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.81445,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.18555,"p_represented":0.81445,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_religious_zionism_zehut","raw_b5_point_pp":4.741712274969288,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":9.0,"seat_range_display":"4–9","seat_range_high":9,"seat_range_low":4,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":4.655477915441226,"vote_q10_pp":2.835448861404178,"vote_q2_5_pp":2.242727789220654,"vote_q90_pp":6.785984464295753,"vote_q97_5_pp":8.43993893178661,"zero_seat_probability":0.18555},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":3.1153946705796183,"contest_party_id":"WINTER_NEW_PARTY","display_name_en":"Amcha Yisrael","display_name_he":"עמך ישראל","expected_seats":2.1697,"forecast_date":"2026-10-03","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":0,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.3732,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.6268,"p_represented":0.3732,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_amcha_yisrael","raw_b5_point_pp":3.1731891236965937,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":6.0,"seat_range_display":"0, 4–8","seat_range_high":8,"seat_range_low":4,"seat_range_mode":"ZERO_SEPARATED_CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":3.115380205233763,"vote_q10_pp":1.51725677598973,"vote_q2_5_pp":1.1002037234156044,"vote_q90_pp":5.1504346413242645,"vote_q97_5_pp":6.9382481509173655,"zero_seat_probability":0.6268},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":0.5926263449995827,"contest_party_id":"K26_NATIVE_LIST::HAREDI_PUBLIC","display_name_en":"Haredi Public","display_name_he":"הציבור החרדי","expected_seats":0.0729,"forecast_date":"2026-10-03","group_id":"UNCOMMITTED","headline_seats":0,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.012199999999999989,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.9878,"p_represented":0.0122,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_haredi_public","raw_b5_point_pp":0.6036203021490281,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":0.0,"seat_range_display":"0","seat_range_high":null,"seat_range_low":null,"seat_range_mode":"ZERO_ONLY_RARE_REPRESENTATION","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":0.5924986125577782,"vote_q10_pp":0.10286539209239938,"vote_q2_5_pp":0.05300039364715784,"vote_q90_pp":1.3132158610496865,"vote_q97_5_pp":2.4561394187261447,"zero_seat_probability":0.9878},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":9.496255939717082,"contest_party_id":"K26_NATIVE_LIST::BEYAHAD_BENNETT","display_name_en":"Beyachad","display_name_he":"ביחד","expected_seats":12.5404,"forecast_date":"2026-10-03","group_id":"CHANGE_CORE","headline_seats":13,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":1.0,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.0,"p_represented":1.0,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_beyachad","raw_b5_point_pp":9.672423320331067,"seat_q10":9.0,"seat_q90":16.0,"seat_range_display":"9–16","seat_range_high":16,"seat_range_low":9,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":9.496344165570967,"vote_q10_pp":7.200347284267681,"vote_q2_5_pp":6.24688872829931,"vote_q90_pp":11.941427694022742,"vote_q97_5_pp":13.697021398405148,"zero_seat_probability":0.0},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":17.11954298996529,"contest_party_id":"YASHAR_GADI_EISENKOT","display_name_en":"Yashar!","display_name_he":"ישר!","expected_seats":23.0074,"forecast_date":"2026-10-03","group_id":"CHANGE_CORE","headline_seats":23,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":1.0,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.0,"p_represented":1.0,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_yashar","raw_b5_point_pp":17.437131844456562,"seat_q10":19.0,"seat_q90":27.0,"seat_range_display":"19–27","seat_range_high":27,"seat_range_low":19,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":17.11967248966268,"vote_q10_pp":14.498373610372541,"vote_q2_5_pp":13.309148884360672,"vote_q90_pp":19.826827402140438,"vote_q97_5_pp":21.459114070458565,"zero_seat_probability":0.0},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":6.636587551468527,"contest_party_id":"YISRAEL_BEITEINU","display_name_en":"Yisrael Beiteinu","display_name_he":"ישראל ביתנו","expected_seats":8.599,"forecast_date":"2026-10-03","group_id":"CHANGE_CORE","headline_seats":9,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.99565,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.00435,"p_represented":0.99565,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_yisrael_beiteinu","raw_b5_point_pp":6.759704520153811,"seat_q10":6.0,"seat_q90":12.0,"seat_range_display":"6–12","seat_range_high":12,"seat_range_low":6,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":6.636738780232767,"vote_q10_pp":4.5876998142518435,"vote_q2_5_pp":3.8338306766957704,"vote_q90_pp":8.95174621287146,"vote_q97_5_pp":10.64663880001863,"zero_seat_probability":0.00435},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":7.5500847560611195,"contest_party_id":"THE_DEMOCRATS","display_name_en":"The Democrats","display_name_he":"הדמוקרטים","expected_seats":9.8671,"forecast_date":"2026-10-03","group_id":"CHANGE_CORE","headline_seats":10,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.9995,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.0005,"p_represented":0.9995,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_democrats","raw_b5_point_pp":7.690148236166573,"seat_q10":7.0,"seat_q90":13.0,"seat_range_display":"7–13","seat_range_high":13,"seat_range_low":7,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":7.550157004378248,"vote_q10_pp":5.365409050277938,"vote_q2_5_pp":4.5572278380952795,"vote_q90_pp":9.95058183241048,"vote_q97_5_pp":11.669571525778526,"zero_seat_probability":0.0005},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":3.9503053370669323,"contest_party_id":"RAAM","display_name_en":"Raam","display_name_he":"רע״ם","expected_seats":3.7689,"forecast_date":"2026-10-03","group_id":"ARAB_LISTS","headline_seats":5,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.62515,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.37485,"p_represented":0.62515,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_raam","raw_b5_point_pp":4.023588423398455,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":8.0,"seat_range_display":"0, 4–8","seat_range_high":8,"seat_range_low":4,"seat_range_mode":"ZERO_SEPARATED_CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":3.950090403532453,"vote_q10_pp":2.234965532785261,"vote_q2_5_pp":1.709110889777458,"vote_q90_pp":6.029749496842716,"vote_q97_5_pp":7.689225605570529,"zero_seat_probability":0.37485},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":5.64224365367504,"contest_party_id":"HADASH_TAAL_BALAD","display_name_en":"Joint List","display_name_he":"הרשימה המשותפת","expected_seats":7.1103,"forecast_date":"2026-10-03","group_id":"ARAB_LISTS","headline_seats":7,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.9618,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.0382,"p_represented":0.9618,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_joint_list","raw_b5_point_pp":5.746914304041212,"seat_q10":5.0,"seat_q90":10.0,"seat_range_display":"5–10","seat_range_high":10,"seat_range_low":5,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":5.642215788745176,"vote_q10_pp":3.744563537064564,"vote_q2_5_pp":3.072954942892358,"vote_q90_pp":7.79067968509619,"vote_q97_5_pp":9.435771015263773,"zero_seat_probability":0.0382},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":1.2207565749966993,"contest_party_id":"BLUE_WHITE","display_name_en":"Blue and White","display_name_he":"כחול לבן","expected_seats":0.278,"forecast_date":"2026-10-03","group_id":"UNCOMMITTED","headline_seats":0,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.04774999999999996,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.95225,"p_represented":0.04775,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_blue_white","raw_b5_point_pp":1.2434031306023683,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":0.0,"seat_range_display":"0","seat_range_high":null,"seat_range_low":null,"seat_range_mode":"ZERO_ONLY_RARE_REPRESENTATION","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":1.2207526378929556,"vote_q10_pp":0.34566677884302865,"vote_q2_5_pp":0.20405679076834762,"vote_q90_pp":2.436210497592697,"vote_q97_5_pp":4.122388108817773,"zero_seat_probability":0.95225},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":2.562047576916164,"contest_party_id":"K26_NATIVE_LIST::RESERVISTS_AND_NEW_ECONOMIC_PARTY","display_name_en":"Reservists–Economic","display_name_he":"המילואימניקים והכלכלית","expected_seats":1.4431,"forecast_date":"2026-10-03","group_id":"UNCOMMITTED","headline_seats":0,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.24614999999999998,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.75385,"p_represented":0.24615,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_reservists_economic","raw_b5_point_pp":2.609576751940397,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":6.0,"seat_range_display":"0, 4–8","seat_range_high":8,"seat_range_low":4,"seat_range_mode":"ZERO_SEPARATED_CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":2.5617340569590175,"vote_q10_pp":1.0490553429041933,"vote_q2_5_pp":0.7053180027585212,"vote_q90_pp":4.509295311103565,"vote_q97_5_pp":6.526037286317723,"zero_seat_probability":0.75385},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":17.325179638512996,"contest_party_id":"LIKUD","display_name_en":"Likud","display_name_he":"הליכוד","expected_seats":23.653033305618017,"forecast_date":"2026-10-03","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":24,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":1.0,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.0,"p_represented":1.0,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_likud","raw_b5_point_pp":17.646583309071026,"seat_q10":20.0,"seat_q90":27.0,"seat_range_display":"20–27","seat_range_high":27,"seat_range_low":20,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":17.646556272460188,"vote_q10_pp":15.146505235079635,"vote_q2_5_pp":13.962596941456916,"vote_q90_pp":20.260422044879885,"vote_q97_5_pp":21.740992112161702,"zero_seat_probability":0.0},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":5.674072203137139,"contest_party_id":"SHAS","display_name_en":"Shas","display_name_he":"ש״ס","expected_seats":7.575738995161583,"forecast_date":"2026-10-03","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":8,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.9890418957439697,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.010958104256030242,"p_represented":0.9890418957439697,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_shas","raw_b5_point_pp":5.779333312756207,"seat_q10":5.0,"seat_q90":10.0,"seat_range_display":"5–10","seat_range_high":10,"seat_range_low":5,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":5.926956591604271,"vote_q10_pp":4.175779020924089,"vote_q2_5_pp":3.513276775249614,"vote_q90_pp":7.861287312833901,"vote_q97_5_pp":9.09609517831607,"zero_seat_probability":0.010958104256030242},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":5.9112369834026435,"contest_party_id":"UNITED_TORAH_JUDAISM","display_name_en":"United Torah Judaism","display_name_he":"יהדות התורה","expected_seats":7.555725099908401,"forecast_date":"2026-10-03","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":8,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.9931746089565047,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.0068253910434953255,"p_represented":0.9931746089565047,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_utj","raw_b5_point_pp":6.020897795217872,"seat_q10":5.0,"seat_q90":10.0,"seat_range_display":"5–10","seat_range_high":10,"seat_range_low":5,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":5.9070522755381285,"vote_q10_pp":4.30168369850369,"vote_q2_5_pp":3.656113472929142,"vote_q90_pp":7.672226359836257,"vote_q97_5_pp":8.8161999655494,"zero_seat_probability":0.0068253910434953255},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":6.148316043002528,"contest_party_id":"OTZMA_YEHUDIT","display_name_en":"Otzma Yehudit","display_name_he":"עוצמה יהודית","expected_seats":7.8457423046793595,"forecast_date":"2026-10-03","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":8,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.9946088463289735,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.005391153671026485,"p_represented":0.9946088463289735,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_otzma","raw_b5_point_pp":6.262374966788755,"seat_q10":6.0,"seat_q90":10.0,"seat_range_display":"6–10","seat_range_high":10,"seat_range_low":6,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":6.111872756090934,"vote_q10_pp":4.40212735527725,"vote_q2_5_pp":3.731706443920349,"vote_q90_pp":7.965998558754058,"vote_q97_5_pp":9.243655479155647,"zero_seat_probability":0.005391153671026485},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":4.6553497364986365,"contest_party_id":"K26_NATIVE_LIST::RZP_AND_ZEHUT","display_name_en":"Religious Zionism–Zehut","display_name_he":"הציונות הדתית וזהות","expected_seats":5.606948867817808,"forecast_date":"2026-10-03","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":6,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.8848366069968457,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.11516339300315429,"p_represented":0.8848366069968456,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_religious_zionism_zehut","raw_b5_point_pp":4.741712274969288,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":8.0,"seat_range_display":"4–9","seat_range_high":9,"seat_range_low":4,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":4.749270434477673,"vote_q10_pp":3.1346569636442165,"vote_q2_5_pp":2.4203754552151504,"vote_q90_pp":6.518589727902621,"vote_q97_5_pp":7.7481938086360085,"zero_seat_probability":0.11516339300315429},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":3.1153946705796183,"contest_party_id":"WINTER_NEW_PARTY","display_name_en":"Amcha Yisrael","display_name_he":"עמך ישראל","expected_seats":1.8215200671047165,"forecast_date":"2026-10-03","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":0,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.3364319973004841,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.6635680026995159,"p_represented":0.3364319973004841,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_amcha_yisrael","raw_b5_point_pp":3.1731891236965937,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":6.0,"seat_range_display":"0, 4–7","seat_range_high":7,"seat_range_low":4,"seat_range_mode":"ZERO_SEPARATED_CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":2.933204070022075,"vote_q10_pp":1.5018569695220294,"vote_q2_5_pp":1.0975242416263482,"vote_q90_pp":4.655150645696796,"vote_q97_5_pp":5.9707743050713225,"zero_seat_probability":0.6635680026995159},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":0.5926263449995827,"contest_party_id":"K26_NATIVE_LIST::HAREDI_PUBLIC","display_name_en":"Haredi Public","display_name_he":"הציבור החרדי","expected_seats":0.01734756179075545,"forecast_date":"2026-10-03","group_id":"UNCOMMITTED","headline_seats":0,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.0030579627239499807,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.99694203727605,"p_represented":0.0030579627239498415,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_haredi_public","raw_b5_point_pp":0.6036203021490281,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":0.0,"seat_range_display":"0","seat_range_high":null,"seat_range_low":null,"seat_range_mode":"ZERO_ONLY_RARE_REPRESENTATION","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":0.5511109122131843,"vote_q10_pp":0.10131384209200307,"vote_q2_5_pp":0.052272859947614526,"vote_q90_pp":1.2513334632754773,"vote_q97_5_pp":2.1467490092544033,"zero_seat_probability":0.99694203727605},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":9.496255939717082,"contest_party_id":"K26_NATIVE_LIST::BEYAHAD_BENNETT","display_name_en":"Beyachad","display_name_he":"ביחד","expected_seats":12.512454023076264,"forecast_date":"2026-10-03","group_id":"CHANGE_CORE","headline_seats":13,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":1.0,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.0,"p_represented":1.0,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_beyachad","raw_b5_point_pp":9.672423320331067,"seat_q10":10.0,"seat_q90":16.0,"seat_range_display":"10–16","seat_range_high":16,"seat_range_low":10,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":9.507952600241572,"vote_q10_pp":7.3665593923725075,"vote_q2_5_pp":6.443325806742142,"vote_q90_pp":11.758478122460094,"vote_q97_5_pp":13.226067436116113,"zero_seat_probability":0.0},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":17.11954298996529,"contest_party_id":"YASHAR_GADI_EISENKOT","display_name_en":"Yashar!","display_name_he":"ישר!","expected_seats":23.11702990838551,"forecast_date":"2026-10-03","group_id":"CHANGE_CORE","headline_seats":23,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":1.0,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.0,"p_represented":1.0,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_yashar","raw_b5_point_pp":17.437131844456562,"seat_q10":20.0,"seat_q90":26.0,"seat_range_display":"20–26","seat_range_high":26,"seat_range_low":20,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":17.253517363977068,"vote_q10_pp":15.03557597766913,"vote_q2_5_pp":13.965755582320925,"vote_q90_pp":19.545851502853747,"vote_q97_5_pp":20.924393240586063,"zero_seat_probability":0.0},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":6.636587551468527,"contest_party_id":"YISRAEL_BEITEINU","display_name_en":"Yisrael Beiteinu","display_name_he":"ישראל ביתנו","expected_seats":8.348787141572641,"forecast_date":"2026-10-03","group_id":"CHANGE_CORE","headline_seats":8,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.9984777011803193,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.001522298819680711,"p_represented":0.9984777011803193,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_yisrael_beiteinu","raw_b5_point_pp":6.759704520153811,"seat_q10":6.0,"seat_q90":11.0,"seat_range_display":"6–11","seat_range_high":11,"seat_range_low":6,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":6.471044307758264,"vote_q10_pp":4.747780115722245,"vote_q2_5_pp":4.059663090906467,"vote_q90_pp":8.30729424869792,"vote_q97_5_pp":9.639448959774853,"zero_seat_probability":0.001522298819680711},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":7.5500847560611195,"contest_party_id":"THE_DEMOCRATS","display_name_en":"The Democrats","display_name_he":"הדמוקרטים","expected_seats":9.748325867062059,"forecast_date":"2026-10-03","group_id":"CHANGE_CORE","headline_seats":10,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.9999013513050858,"p_below_legal_threshold":9.864869491418684e-05,"p_represented":0.9999013513050857,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_democrats","raw_b5_point_pp":7.690148236166573,"seat_q10":7.0,"seat_q90":12.0,"seat_range_display":"7–12","seat_range_high":12,"seat_range_low":7,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":7.486743557795647,"vote_q10_pp":5.668480016461305,"vote_q2_5_pp":4.8873472174351145,"vote_q90_pp":9.43275980985278,"vote_q97_5_pp":10.765561666097653,"zero_seat_probability":9.864869491418684e-05},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":3.9503053370669323,"contest_party_id":"RAAM","display_name_en":"Raam","display_name_he":"רע״ם","expected_seats":3.867183559698473,"forecast_date":"2026-10-03","group_id":"ARAB_LISTS","headline_seats":5,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.6733924554252027,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.32660754457479735,"p_represented":0.6733924554252027,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_raam","raw_b5_point_pp":4.023588423398455,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":7.0,"seat_range_display":"0, 4–8","seat_range_high":8,"seat_range_low":4,"seat_range_mode":"ZERO_SEPARATED_CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":3.9292545294817876,"vote_q10_pp":2.312389852385453,"vote_q2_5_pp":1.7523842643019885,"vote_q90_pp":5.668199238018373,"vote_q97_5_pp":6.887245620726485,"zero_seat_probability":0.32660754457479735},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":5.64224365367504,"contest_party_id":"HADASH_TAAL_BALAD","display_name_en":"Joint List","display_name_he":"הרשימה המשותפת","expected_seats":7.216954508526386,"forecast_date":"2026-10-03","group_id":"ARAB_LISTS","headline_seats":7,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.9840246685527094,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.01597533144729059,"p_represented":0.9840246685527093,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_joint_list","raw_b5_point_pp":5.746914304041212,"seat_q10":5.0,"seat_q90":10.0,"seat_range_display":"5–10","seat_range_high":10,"seat_range_low":5,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":5.676425927660963,"vote_q10_pp":4.022280086856707,"vote_q2_5_pp":3.3932737120274368,"vote_q90_pp":7.450619256435603,"vote_q97_5_pp":8.708104968233904,"zero_seat_probability":0.01597533144729059},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":1.2207565749966993,"contest_party_id":"BLUE_WHITE","display_name_en":"Blue and White","display_name_he":"כחול לבן","expected_seats":0.07416954194660301,"forecast_date":"2026-10-03","group_id":"UNCOMMITTED","headline_seats":0,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.0127525355937812,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.9872474644062188,"p_represented":0.012752535593781108,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_blue_white","raw_b5_point_pp":1.2434031306023683,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":0.0,"seat_range_display":"0","seat_range_high":null,"seat_range_low":null,"seat_range_mode":"ZERO_ONLY_RARE_REPRESENTATION","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":1.0974746465461203,"vote_q10_pp":0.33906658141812773,"vote_q2_5_pp":0.2036711502066313,"vote_q90_pp":2.158188485813593,"vote_q97_5_pp":2.9957316949039106,"zero_seat_probability":0.9872474644062188},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":2.562047576916164,"contest_party_id":"K26_NATIVE_LIST::RESERVISTS_AND_NEW_ECONOMIC_PARTY","display_name_en":"Reservists–Economic","display_name_he":"המילואימניקים והכלכלית","expected_seats":1.0390392476514156,"forecast_date":"2026-10-03","group_id":"UNCOMMITTED","headline_seats":0,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.1945986716240613,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.8054013283759387,"p_represented":0.1945986716240613,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_reservists_economic","raw_b5_point_pp":2.609576751940397,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":5.0,"seat_range_display":"0, 4–7","seat_range_high":7,"seat_range_low":4,"seat_range_mode":"ZERO_SEPARATED_CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":2.3515637541321146,"vote_q10_pp":1.0394085204656438,"vote_q2_5_pp":0.7088446735630021,"vote_q90_pp":3.9964285742605585,"vote_q97_5_pp":5.348577754013052,"zero_seat_probability":0.8054013283759387},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":17.325179638512996,"contest_party_id":"LIKUD","display_name_en":"Likud","display_name_he":"הליכוד","expected_seats":23.28135,"forecast_date":"2026-10-04","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":24,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":1.0,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.0,"p_represented":1.0,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_likud","raw_b5_point_pp":17.646583309071026,"seat_q10":20.0,"seat_q90":27.0,"seat_range_display":"20–27","seat_range_high":27,"seat_range_low":20,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":17.325096160905225,"vote_q10_pp":14.782795803662221,"vote_q2_5_pp":13.604103269530412,"vote_q90_pp":19.949323691107175,"vote_q97_5_pp":21.570427610126195,"zero_seat_probability":0.0},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":5.674072203137139,"contest_party_id":"SHAS","display_name_en":"Shas","display_name_he":"ש״ס","expected_seats":7.1692,"forecast_date":"2026-10-04","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":7,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.9677,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.0323,"p_represented":0.9677,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_shas","raw_b5_point_pp":5.779333312756207,"seat_q10":5.0,"seat_q90":10.0,"seat_range_display":"5–10","seat_range_high":10,"seat_range_low":5,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":5.674022661671539,"vote_q10_pp":3.803207590913493,"vote_q2_5_pp":3.1504970682281783,"vote_q90_pp":7.8069987368111455,"vote_q97_5_pp":9.35793068129992,"zero_seat_probability":0.0323},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":5.9112369834026435,"contest_party_id":"UNITED_TORAH_JUDAISM","display_name_en":"United Torah Judaism","display_name_he":"יהדות התורה","expected_seats":7.5466,"forecast_date":"2026-10-04","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":8,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.9817,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.0183,"p_represented":0.9817,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_utj","raw_b5_point_pp":6.020897795217872,"seat_q10":5.0,"seat_q90":11.0,"seat_range_display":"5–11","seat_range_high":11,"seat_range_low":5,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":5.911112583657098,"vote_q10_pp":4.0491624381866265,"vote_q2_5_pp":3.371484106189735,"vote_q90_pp":8.019550185276408,"vote_q97_5_pp":9.57438257070171,"zero_seat_probability":0.0183},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":6.148316043002528,"contest_party_id":"OTZMA_YEHUDIT","display_name_en":"Otzma Yehudit","display_name_he":"עוצמה יהודית","expected_seats":7.876,"forecast_date":"2026-10-04","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":8,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.98275,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.01725,"p_represented":0.98275,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_otzma","raw_b5_point_pp":6.262374966788755,"seat_q10":5.0,"seat_q90":11.0,"seat_range_display":"5–11","seat_range_high":11,"seat_range_low":5,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":6.148355195011618,"vote_q10_pp":4.1382468903866325,"vote_q2_5_pp":3.3969735764245392,"vote_q90_pp":8.442119396356086,"vote_q97_5_pp":10.120595367386457,"zero_seat_probability":0.01725},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":4.6553497364986365,"contest_party_id":"K26_NATIVE_LIST::RZP_AND_ZEHUT","display_name_en":"Religious Zionism–Zehut","display_name_he":"הציונות הדתית וזהות","expected_seats":5.2701,"forecast_date":"2026-10-04","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":6,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.8184,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.1816,"p_represented":0.8184,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_religious_zionism_zehut","raw_b5_point_pp":4.741712274969288,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":9.0,"seat_range_display":"4–9","seat_range_high":9,"seat_range_low":4,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":4.655392670944387,"vote_q10_pp":2.865002437164429,"vote_q2_5_pp":2.2655429222716896,"vote_q90_pp":6.754793182210902,"vote_q97_5_pp":8.40261391620415,"zero_seat_probability":0.1816},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":3.1153946705796183,"contest_party_id":"WINTER_NEW_PARTY","display_name_en":"Amcha Yisrael","display_name_he":"עמך ישראל","expected_seats":2.19325,"forecast_date":"2026-10-04","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":0,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.37895,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.62105,"p_represented":0.37895,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_amcha_yisrael","raw_b5_point_pp":3.1731891236965937,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":6.0,"seat_range_display":"0, 4–8","seat_range_high":8,"seat_range_low":4,"seat_range_mode":"ZERO_SEPARATED_CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":3.1154174938788164,"vote_q10_pp":1.5098537499553786,"vote_q2_5_pp":1.085711702178703,"vote_q90_pp":5.095528252734399,"vote_q97_5_pp":6.901154403808226,"zero_seat_probability":0.62105},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":0.5926263449995827,"contest_party_id":"K26_NATIVE_LIST::HAREDI_PUBLIC","display_name_en":"Haredi Public","display_name_he":"הציבור החרדי","expected_seats":0.0811,"forecast_date":"2026-10-04","group_id":"UNCOMMITTED","headline_seats":0,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.013050000000000006,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.98695,"p_represented":0.01305,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_haredi_public","raw_b5_point_pp":0.6036203021490281,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":0.0,"seat_range_display":"0","seat_range_high":null,"seat_range_low":null,"seat_range_mode":"ZERO_ONLY_RARE_REPRESENTATION","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":0.5926691293069258,"vote_q10_pp":0.10071369462439755,"vote_q2_5_pp":0.05176941499883809,"vote_q90_pp":1.2877808472367753,"vote_q97_5_pp":2.476919293637276,"zero_seat_probability":0.98695},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":9.496255939717082,"contest_party_id":"K26_NATIVE_LIST::BEYAHAD_BENNETT","display_name_en":"Beyachad","display_name_he":"ביחד","expected_seats":12.53535,"forecast_date":"2026-10-04","group_id":"CHANGE_CORE","headline_seats":13,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":1.0,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.0,"p_represented":1.0,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_beyachad","raw_b5_point_pp":9.672423320331067,"seat_q10":9.0,"seat_q90":16.0,"seat_range_display":"9–16","seat_range_high":16,"seat_range_low":9,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":9.496375840307097,"vote_q10_pp":7.189924487376088,"vote_q2_5_pp":6.2369463019718685,"vote_q90_pp":12.009305066665732,"vote_q97_5_pp":13.73586242973614,"zero_seat_probability":0.0},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":17.11954298996529,"contest_party_id":"YASHAR_GADI_EISENKOT","display_name_en":"Yashar!","display_name_he":"ישר!","expected_seats":22.997,"forecast_date":"2026-10-04","group_id":"CHANGE_CORE","headline_seats":23,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":1.0,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.0,"p_represented":1.0,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_yashar","raw_b5_point_pp":17.437131844456562,"seat_q10":19.0,"seat_q90":27.0,"seat_range_display":"19–27","seat_range_high":27,"seat_range_low":19,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":17.11963109252893,"vote_q10_pp":14.516583913276357,"vote_q2_5_pp":13.260732703374803,"vote_q90_pp":19.85388849302939,"vote_q97_5_pp":21.487722419915237,"zero_seat_probability":0.0},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":6.636587551468527,"contest_party_id":"YISRAEL_BEITEINU","display_name_en":"Yisrael Beiteinu","display_name_he":"ישראל ביתנו","expected_seats":8.5893,"forecast_date":"2026-10-04","group_id":"CHANGE_CORE","headline_seats":9,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.99455,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.00545,"p_represented":0.99455,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_yisrael_beiteinu","raw_b5_point_pp":6.759704520153811,"seat_q10":6.0,"seat_q90":12.0,"seat_range_display":"6–12","seat_range_high":12,"seat_range_low":6,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":6.636623334140147,"vote_q10_pp":4.549463240213486,"vote_q2_5_pp":3.8062776209604103,"vote_q90_pp":8.993639778754083,"vote_q97_5_pp":10.678953950562422,"zero_seat_probability":0.00545},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":7.5500847560611195,"contest_party_id":"THE_DEMOCRATS","display_name_en":"The Democrats","display_name_he":"הדמוקרטים","expected_seats":9.86375,"forecast_date":"2026-10-04","group_id":"CHANGE_CORE","headline_seats":10,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.99945,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.00055,"p_represented":0.99945,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_democrats","raw_b5_point_pp":7.690148236166573,"seat_q10":7.0,"seat_q90":13.0,"seat_range_display":"7–13","seat_range_high":13,"seat_range_low":7,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":7.550007799028276,"vote_q10_pp":5.379126029483004,"vote_q2_5_pp":4.5499910884514385,"vote_q90_pp":9.956350667886836,"vote_q97_5_pp":11.66492099000239,"zero_seat_probability":0.00055},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":3.9503053370669323,"contest_party_id":"RAAM","display_name_en":"Raam","display_name_he":"רע״ם","expected_seats":3.7762,"forecast_date":"2026-10-04","group_id":"ARAB_LISTS","headline_seats":5,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.6266,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.3734,"p_represented":0.6266,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_raam","raw_b5_point_pp":4.023588423398455,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":8.0,"seat_range_display":"0, 4–9","seat_range_high":9,"seat_range_low":4,"seat_range_mode":"ZERO_SEPARATED_CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":3.9500650298798923,"vote_q10_pp":2.209808238988733,"vote_q2_5_pp":1.6900513733058773,"vote_q90_pp":6.014470782436727,"vote_q97_5_pp":7.7723002006053505,"zero_seat_probability":0.3734},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":5.64224365367504,"contest_party_id":"HADASH_TAAL_BALAD","display_name_en":"Joint List","display_name_he":"הרשימה המשותפת","expected_seats":7.0983,"forecast_date":"2026-10-04","group_id":"ARAB_LISTS","headline_seats":7,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.9616,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.0384,"p_represented":0.9616,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_joint_list","raw_b5_point_pp":5.746914304041212,"seat_q10":5.0,"seat_q90":10.0,"seat_range_display":"5–10","seat_range_high":10,"seat_range_low":5,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":5.642235433790322,"vote_q10_pp":3.7657546193799623,"vote_q2_5_pp":3.0775104824102577,"vote_q90_pp":7.772413664854281,"vote_q97_5_pp":9.376366385688732,"zero_seat_probability":0.0384},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":1.2207565749966993,"contest_party_id":"BLUE_WHITE","display_name_en":"Blue and White","display_name_he":"כחול לבן","expected_seats":0.27485,"forecast_date":"2026-10-04","group_id":"UNCOMMITTED","headline_seats":0,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.04754999999999998,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.95245,"p_represented":0.04755,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_blue_white","raw_b5_point_pp":1.2434031306023683,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":0.0,"seat_range_display":"0","seat_range_high":null,"seat_range_low":null,"seat_range_mode":"ZERO_ONLY_RARE_REPRESENTATION","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":1.2208916737691855,"vote_q10_pp":0.343713878387472,"vote_q2_5_pp":0.2025604704967156,"vote_q90_pp":2.40975005999361,"vote_q97_5_pp":4.069602068787257,"zero_seat_probability":0.95245},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":2.562047576916164,"contest_party_id":"K26_NATIVE_LIST::RESERVISTS_AND_NEW_ECONOMIC_PARTY","display_name_en":"Reservists–Economic","display_name_he":"המילואימניקים והכלכלית","expected_seats":1.44765,"forecast_date":"2026-10-04","group_id":"UNCOMMITTED","headline_seats":0,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.24475000000000002,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.75525,"p_represented":0.24475,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_reservists_economic","raw_b5_point_pp":2.609576751940397,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":6.0,"seat_range_display":"0, 4–9","seat_range_high":9,"seat_range_low":4,"seat_range_mode":"ZERO_SEPARATED_CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":2.5621039011805373,"vote_q10_pp":1.0429511131096263,"vote_q2_5_pp":0.7104446295940551,"vote_q90_pp":4.533969696961657,"vote_q97_5_pp":6.609670787671066,"zero_seat_probability":0.75525},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":17.325179638512996,"contest_party_id":"LIKUD","display_name_en":"Likud","display_name_he":"הליכוד","expected_seats":23.680776901463886,"forecast_date":"2026-10-04","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":24,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":1.0,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.0,"p_represented":1.0,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_likud","raw_b5_point_pp":17.646583309071026,"seat_q10":20.0,"seat_q90":27.0,"seat_range_display":"20–27","seat_range_high":27,"seat_range_low":20,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":17.66467229298941,"vote_q10_pp":15.160777232674349,"vote_q2_5_pp":14.017110564418907,"vote_q90_pp":20.259199036613705,"vote_q97_5_pp":21.795776405810614,"zero_seat_probability":0.0},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":5.674072203137139,"contest_party_id":"SHAS","display_name_en":"Shas","display_name_he":"ש״ס","expected_seats":7.57890287886217,"forecast_date":"2026-10-04","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":8,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.9890537868630206,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.01094621313697941,"p_represented":0.9890537868630206,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_shas","raw_b5_point_pp":5.779333312756207,"seat_q10":5.0,"seat_q90":10.0,"seat_range_display":"5–10","seat_range_high":10,"seat_range_low":5,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":5.9278863005550075,"vote_q10_pp":4.180799888995973,"vote_q2_5_pp":3.5171247607817375,"vote_q90_pp":7.858563373974741,"vote_q97_5_pp":9.066226722309608,"zero_seat_probability":0.01094621313697941},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":5.9112369834026435,"contest_party_id":"UNITED_TORAH_JUDAISM","display_name_en":"United Torah Judaism","display_name_he":"יהדות התורה","expected_seats":7.56443023457566,"forecast_date":"2026-10-04","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":8,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.9929398172633717,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.007060182736628302,"p_represented":0.9929398172633717,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_utj","raw_b5_point_pp":6.020897795217872,"seat_q10":5.0,"seat_q90":10.0,"seat_range_display":"5–10","seat_range_high":10,"seat_range_low":5,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":5.9087674633982346,"vote_q10_pp":4.293216326356418,"vote_q2_5_pp":3.6664293888994677,"vote_q90_pp":7.663610869898636,"vote_q97_5_pp":8.863900142365827,"zero_seat_probability":0.007060182736628302},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":6.148316043002528,"contest_party_id":"OTZMA_YEHUDIT","display_name_en":"Otzma Yehudit","display_name_he":"עוצמה יהודית","expected_seats":7.869151520410706,"forecast_date":"2026-10-04","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":8,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.9938665209516564,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.006133479048343647,"p_represented":0.9938665209516564,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_otzma","raw_b5_point_pp":6.262374966788755,"seat_q10":6.0,"seat_q90":10.0,"seat_range_display":"6–10","seat_range_high":10,"seat_range_low":6,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":6.130449516809728,"vote_q10_pp":4.416485832208297,"vote_q2_5_pp":3.7060432954011047,"vote_q90_pp":7.963727247122628,"vote_q97_5_pp":9.263191996116817,"zero_seat_probability":0.006133479048343647},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":4.6553497364986365,"contest_party_id":"K26_NATIVE_LIST::RZP_AND_ZEHUT","display_name_en":"Religious Zionism–Zehut","display_name_he":"הציונות הדתית וזהות","expected_seats":5.610186805765544,"forecast_date":"2026-10-04","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":6,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.8842992298265034,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.11570077017349659,"p_represented":0.8842992298265036,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_religious_zionism_zehut","raw_b5_point_pp":4.741712274969288,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":8.0,"seat_range_display":"4–9","seat_range_high":9,"seat_range_low":4,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":4.752017184258316,"vote_q10_pp":3.142921289777814,"vote_q2_5_pp":2.4210256590086328,"vote_q90_pp":6.506772408573934,"vote_q97_5_pp":7.720014897438786,"zero_seat_probability":0.11570077017349659},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":3.1153946705796183,"contest_party_id":"WINTER_NEW_PARTY","display_name_en":"Amcha Yisrael","display_name_he":"עמך ישראל","expected_seats":1.8423349316035953,"forecast_date":"2026-10-04","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":0,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.3410082691831101,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.6589917308168899,"p_represented":0.34100826918311017,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_amcha_yisrael","raw_b5_point_pp":3.1731891236965937,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":6.0,"seat_range_display":"0, 4–7","seat_range_high":7,"seat_range_low":4,"seat_range_mode":"ZERO_SEPARATED_CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":2.9351142703058324,"vote_q10_pp":1.4841734648863925,"vote_q2_5_pp":1.063175263256526,"vote_q90_pp":4.651802688909905,"vote_q97_5_pp":5.96922642877947,"zero_seat_probability":0.6589917308168899},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":0.5926263449995827,"contest_party_id":"K26_NATIVE_LIST::HAREDI_PUBLIC","display_name_en":"Haredi Public","display_name_he":"הציבור החרדי","expected_seats":0.019247615346064194,"forecast_date":"2026-10-04","group_id":"UNCOMMITTED","headline_seats":0,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.0032191568898610745,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.9967808431101389,"p_represented":0.0032191568898610828,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_haredi_public","raw_b5_point_pp":0.6036203021490281,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":0.0,"seat_range_display":"0","seat_range_high":null,"seat_range_low":null,"seat_range_mode":"ZERO_ONLY_RARE_REPRESENTATION","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":0.5431493166337334,"vote_q10_pp":0.09958749743204551,"vote_q2_5_pp":0.05213492521793337,"vote_q90_pp":1.2135587881641916,"vote_q97_5_pp":2.1541695876419156,"zero_seat_probability":0.9967808431101389},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":9.496255939717082,"contest_party_id":"K26_NATIVE_LIST::BEYAHAD_BENNETT","display_name_en":"Beyachad","display_name_he":"ביחד","expected_seats":12.521558763623904,"forecast_date":"2026-10-04","group_id":"CHANGE_CORE","headline_seats":13,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":1.0,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.0,"p_represented":1.0,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_beyachad","raw_b5_point_pp":9.672423320331067,"seat_q10":10.0,"seat_q90":16.0,"seat_range_display":"10–16","seat_range_high":16,"seat_range_low":10,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":9.517911906404686,"vote_q10_pp":7.390010535539722,"vote_q2_5_pp":6.473122169883335,"vote_q90_pp":11.817741040124702,"vote_q97_5_pp":13.273512826160182,"zero_seat_probability":0.0},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":17.11954298996529,"contest_party_id":"YASHAR_GADI_EISENKOT","display_name_en":"Yashar!","display_name_he":"ישר!","expected_seats":23.08697993656393,"forecast_date":"2026-10-04","group_id":"CHANGE_CORE","headline_seats":23,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":1.0,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.0,"p_represented":1.0,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_yashar","raw_b5_point_pp":17.437131844456562,"seat_q10":20.0,"seat_q90":26.0,"seat_range_display":"20–26","seat_range_high":26,"seat_range_low":20,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":17.23995100604879,"vote_q10_pp":15.013061144436925,"vote_q2_5_pp":13.944170955180674,"vote_q90_pp":19.533386892070766,"vote_q97_5_pp":20.96579677036088,"zero_seat_probability":0.0},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":6.636587551468527,"contest_party_id":"YISRAEL_BEITEINU","display_name_en":"Yisrael Beiteinu","display_name_he":"ישראל ביתנו","expected_seats":8.336824828636377,"forecast_date":"2026-10-04","group_id":"CHANGE_CORE","headline_seats":8,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.9981308173383455,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.0018691826616545248,"p_represented":0.9981308173383456,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_yisrael_beiteinu","raw_b5_point_pp":6.759704520153811,"seat_q10":6.0,"seat_q90":11.0,"seat_range_display":"6–11","seat_range_high":11,"seat_range_low":6,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":6.463500081020866,"vote_q10_pp":4.6985387880851475,"vote_q2_5_pp":4.035107582203541,"vote_q90_pp":8.336456152741603,"vote_q97_5_pp":9.692497695610223,"zero_seat_probability":0.0018691826616545248},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":7.5500847560611195,"contest_party_id":"THE_DEMOCRATS","display_name_en":"The Democrats","display_name_he":"הדמוקרטים","expected_seats":9.739771486790175,"forecast_date":"2026-10-04","group_id":"CHANGE_CORE","headline_seats":10,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.9998757450890139,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.00012425491098613196,"p_represented":0.9998757450890139,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_democrats","raw_b5_point_pp":7.690148236166573,"seat_q10":7.0,"seat_q90":12.0,"seat_range_display":"7–12","seat_range_high":12,"seat_range_low":7,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":7.480373419530284,"vote_q10_pp":5.669565746964667,"vote_q2_5_pp":4.871531119427696,"vote_q90_pp":9.41896896345493,"vote_q97_5_pp":10.743876968420873,"zero_seat_probability":0.00012425491098613196},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":3.9503053370669323,"contest_party_id":"RAAM","display_name_en":"Raam","display_name_he":"רע״ם","expected_seats":3.834646488877873,"forecast_date":"2026-10-04","group_id":"ARAB_LISTS","headline_seats":5,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.6687456448656193,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.3312543551343808,"p_represented":0.6687456448656193,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_raam","raw_b5_point_pp":4.023588423398455,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":7.0,"seat_range_display":"0, 4–8","seat_range_high":8,"seat_range_low":4,"seat_range_mode":"ZERO_SEPARATED_CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":3.9124923318054097,"vote_q10_pp":2.278093958464341,"vote_q2_5_pp":1.7511282101185346,"vote_q90_pp":5.682174951755935,"vote_q97_5_pp":6.934991974938343,"zero_seat_probability":0.3312543551343808},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":5.64224365367504,"contest_party_id":"HADASH_TAAL_BALAD","display_name_en":"Joint List","display_name_he":"הרשימה המשותפת","expected_seats":7.215950389247967,"forecast_date":"2026-10-04","group_id":"ARAB_LISTS","headline_seats":7,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.9831230222114906,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.016876977788509436,"p_represented":0.9831230222114906,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_joint_list","raw_b5_point_pp":5.746914304041212,"seat_q10":5.0,"seat_q90":10.0,"seat_range_display":"5–10","seat_range_high":10,"seat_range_low":5,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":5.6834217315468525,"vote_q10_pp":4.069967766333134,"vote_q2_5_pp":3.3947965997170484,"vote_q90_pp":7.47735186945686,"vote_q97_5_pp":8.67521372527796,"zero_seat_probability":0.016876977788509436},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":1.2207565749966993,"contest_party_id":"BLUE_WHITE","display_name_en":"Blue and White","display_name_he":"כחול לבן","expected_seats":0.07021141119359975,"forecast_date":"2026-10-04","group_id":"UNCOMMITTED","headline_seats":0,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.012130992294759446,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.9878690077052406,"p_represented":0.012130992294759523,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_blue_white","raw_b5_point_pp":1.2434031306023683,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":0.0,"seat_range_display":"0","seat_range_high":null,"seat_range_low":null,"seat_range_mode":"ZERO_ONLY_RARE_REPRESENTATION","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":1.0968745806150801,"vote_q10_pp":0.337613100342604,"vote_q2_5_pp":0.19796859197893177,"vote_q90_pp":2.1473445643734723,"vote_q97_5_pp":3.0071985785613258,"zero_seat_probability":0.9878690077052406},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":2.562047576916164,"contest_party_id":"K26_NATIVE_LIST::RESERVISTS_AND_NEW_ECONOMIC_PARTY","display_name_en":"Reservists–Economic","display_name_he":"המילואימניקים והכלכלית","expected_seats":1.0290258070385594,"forecast_date":"2026-10-04","group_id":"UNCOMMITTED","headline_seats":0,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.1908795023537515,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.8091204976462485,"p_represented":0.1908795023537515,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_reservists_economic","raw_b5_point_pp":2.609576751940397,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":5.0,"seat_range_display":"0, 4–7","seat_range_high":7,"seat_range_low":4,"seat_range_mode":"ZERO_SEPARATED_CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":2.3434185980777698,"vote_q10_pp":1.0230451926191626,"vote_q2_5_pp":0.7096617892245605,"vote_q90_pp":3.977847296250935,"vote_q97_5_pp":5.4632924186373915,"zero_seat_probability":0.8091204976462485},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":17.325179638512996,"contest_party_id":"LIKUD","display_name_en":"Likud","display_name_he":"הליכוד","expected_seats":23.28625,"forecast_date":"2026-10-05","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":24,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":1.0,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.0,"p_represented":1.0,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_likud","raw_b5_point_pp":17.646583309071026,"seat_q10":20.0,"seat_q90":27.0,"seat_range_display":"20–27","seat_range_high":27,"seat_range_low":20,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":17.325273988484934,"vote_q10_pp":14.809376570743817,"vote_q2_5_pp":13.635048303955493,"vote_q90_pp":19.97413525832404,"vote_q97_5_pp":21.526874076503823,"zero_seat_probability":0.0},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":5.674072203137139,"contest_party_id":"SHAS","display_name_en":"Shas","display_name_he":"ש״ס","expected_seats":7.1744,"forecast_date":"2026-10-05","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":7,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.96815,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.03185,"p_represented":0.96815,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_shas","raw_b5_point_pp":5.779333312756207,"seat_q10":5.0,"seat_q90":10.0,"seat_range_display":"5–10","seat_range_high":10,"seat_range_low":5,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":5.674096146171434,"vote_q10_pp":3.8022344726484656,"vote_q2_5_pp":3.1573893906991968,"vote_q90_pp":7.805598127114462,"vote_q97_5_pp":9.330269790326676,"zero_seat_probability":0.03185},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":5.9112369834026435,"contest_party_id":"UNITED_TORAH_JUDAISM","display_name_en":"United Torah Judaism","display_name_he":"יהדות התורה","expected_seats":7.5482,"forecast_date":"2026-10-05","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":8,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.982,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.018,"p_represented":0.982,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_utj","raw_b5_point_pp":6.020897795217872,"seat_q10":5.0,"seat_q90":11.0,"seat_range_display":"5–11","seat_range_high":11,"seat_range_low":5,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":5.9112856611178435,"vote_q10_pp":4.036937955409353,"vote_q2_5_pp":3.3720953890071423,"vote_q90_pp":7.997387350281851,"vote_q97_5_pp":9.541477246764254,"zero_seat_probability":0.018},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":6.148316043002528,"contest_party_id":"OTZMA_YEHUDIT","display_name_en":"Otzma Yehudit","display_name_he":"עוצמה יהודית","expected_seats":7.8802,"forecast_date":"2026-10-05","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":8,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.9845,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.0155,"p_represented":0.9845,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_otzma","raw_b5_point_pp":6.262374966788755,"seat_q10":5.0,"seat_q90":11.0,"seat_range_display":"5–11","seat_range_high":11,"seat_range_low":5,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":6.148316033496497,"vote_q10_pp":4.135668205147697,"vote_q2_5_pp":3.4362506434547226,"vote_q90_pp":8.435721556852934,"vote_q97_5_pp":10.01235222843511,"zero_seat_probability":0.0155},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":4.6553497364986365,"contest_party_id":"K26_NATIVE_LIST::RZP_AND_ZEHUT","display_name_en":"Religious Zionism–Zehut","display_name_he":"הציונות הדתית וזהות","expected_seats":5.27635,"forecast_date":"2026-10-05","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":6,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.81865,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.18135,"p_represented":0.81865,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_religious_zionism_zehut","raw_b5_point_pp":4.741712274969288,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":9.0,"seat_range_display":"4–9","seat_range_high":9,"seat_range_low":4,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":4.655437558967448,"vote_q10_pp":2.843654539709717,"vote_q2_5_pp":2.26265788139671,"vote_q90_pp":6.771194156626881,"vote_q97_5_pp":8.491662744556153,"zero_seat_probability":0.18135},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":3.1153946705796183,"contest_party_id":"WINTER_NEW_PARTY","display_name_en":"Amcha Yisrael","display_name_he":"עמך ישראל","expected_seats":2.178,"forecast_date":"2026-10-05","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":0,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.3758,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.6242,"p_represented":0.3758,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_amcha_yisrael","raw_b5_point_pp":3.1731891236965937,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":6.0,"seat_range_display":"0, 4–8","seat_range_high":8,"seat_range_low":4,"seat_range_mode":"ZERO_SEPARATED_CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":3.115326039648339,"vote_q10_pp":1.527121289365716,"vote_q2_5_pp":1.0976952978329049,"vote_q90_pp":5.0804811248134785,"vote_q97_5_pp":6.993848609788969,"zero_seat_probability":0.6242},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":0.5926263449995827,"contest_party_id":"K26_NATIVE_LIST::HAREDI_PUBLIC","display_name_en":"Haredi Public","display_name_he":"הציבור החרדי","expected_seats":0.07775,"forecast_date":"2026-10-05","group_id":"UNCOMMITTED","headline_seats":0,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.012900000000000023,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.9871,"p_represented":0.0129,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_haredi_public","raw_b5_point_pp":0.6036203021490281,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":0.0,"seat_range_display":"0","seat_range_high":null,"seat_range_low":null,"seat_range_mode":"ZERO_ONLY_RARE_REPRESENTATION","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":0.5925180675065407,"vote_q10_pp":0.10274872497098658,"vote_q2_5_pp":0.05353260553762358,"vote_q90_pp":1.2898907841275682,"vote_q97_5_pp":2.5279593216170375,"zero_seat_probability":0.9871},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":9.496255939717082,"contest_party_id":"K26_NATIVE_LIST::BEYAHAD_BENNETT","display_name_en":"Beyachad","display_name_he":"ביחד","expected_seats":12.5339,"forecast_date":"2026-10-05","group_id":"CHANGE_CORE","headline_seats":13,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":1.0,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.0,"p_represented":1.0,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_beyachad","raw_b5_point_pp":9.672423320331067,"seat_q10":9.0,"seat_q90":16.0,"seat_range_display":"9–16","seat_range_high":16,"seat_range_low":9,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":9.49637652549046,"vote_q10_pp":7.186249052214427,"vote_q2_5_pp":6.258873076827458,"vote_q90_pp":11.998848753182868,"vote_q97_5_pp":13.639477097563846,"zero_seat_probability":0.0},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":17.11954298996529,"contest_party_id":"YASHAR_GADI_EISENKOT","display_name_en":"Yashar!","display_name_he":"ישר!","expected_seats":23.0034,"forecast_date":"2026-10-05","group_id":"CHANGE_CORE","headline_seats":23,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":1.0,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.0,"p_represented":1.0,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_yashar","raw_b5_point_pp":17.437131844456562,"seat_q10":19.0,"seat_q90":27.0,"seat_range_display":"19–27","seat_range_high":27,"seat_range_low":19,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":17.119688837054092,"vote_q10_pp":14.494531787775642,"vote_q2_5_pp":13.311004177606362,"vote_q90_pp":19.867494871479472,"vote_q97_5_pp":21.51786628161603,"zero_seat_probability":0.0},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":6.636587551468527,"contest_party_id":"YISRAEL_BEITEINU","display_name_en":"Yisrael Beiteinu","display_name_he":"ישראל ביתנו","expected_seats":8.5911,"forecast_date":"2026-10-05","group_id":"CHANGE_CORE","headline_seats":9,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.99505,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.00495,"p_represented":0.99505,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_yisrael_beiteinu","raw_b5_point_pp":6.759704520153811,"seat_q10":6.0,"seat_q90":12.0,"seat_range_display":"6–12","seat_range_high":12,"seat_range_low":6,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":6.636576840226899,"vote_q10_pp":4.586178643727334,"vote_q2_5_pp":3.838488476414199,"vote_q90_pp":8.928247245972173,"vote_q97_5_pp":10.600356781056375,"zero_seat_probability":0.00495},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":7.5500847560611195,"contest_party_id":"THE_DEMOCRATS","display_name_en":"The Democrats","display_name_he":"הדמוקרטים","expected_seats":9.86305,"forecast_date":"2026-10-05","group_id":"CHANGE_CORE","headline_seats":10,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.99955,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.00045,"p_represented":0.99955,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_democrats","raw_b5_point_pp":7.690148236166573,"seat_q10":7.0,"seat_q90":13.0,"seat_range_display":"7–13","seat_range_high":13,"seat_range_low":7,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":7.550070778842337,"vote_q10_pp":5.397737898649076,"vote_q2_5_pp":4.5565246017156,"vote_q90_pp":10.00738069121158,"vote_q97_5_pp":11.707318086689519,"zero_seat_probability":0.00045},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":3.9503053370669323,"contest_party_id":"RAAM","display_name_en":"Raam","display_name_he":"רע״ם","expected_seats":3.77555,"forecast_date":"2026-10-05","group_id":"ARAB_LISTS","headline_seats":5,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.6267,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.3733,"p_represented":0.6267,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_raam","raw_b5_point_pp":4.023588423398455,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":8.0,"seat_range_display":"0, 4–9","seat_range_high":9,"seat_range_low":4,"seat_range_mode":"ZERO_SEPARATED_CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":3.9502691344786682,"vote_q10_pp":2.2174190911014615,"vote_q2_5_pp":1.6963098073725207,"vote_q90_pp":6.029091688746551,"vote_q97_5_pp":7.669471676063428,"zero_seat_probability":0.3733},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":5.64224365367504,"contest_party_id":"HADASH_TAAL_BALAD","display_name_en":"Joint List","display_name_he":"הרשימה המשותפת","expected_seats":7.1039,"forecast_date":"2026-10-05","group_id":"ARAB_LISTS","headline_seats":7,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.96245,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.03755,"p_represented":0.96245,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_joint_list","raw_b5_point_pp":5.746914304041212,"seat_q10":5.0,"seat_q90":10.0,"seat_range_display":"5–10","seat_range_high":10,"seat_range_low":5,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":5.642311425309155,"vote_q10_pp":3.7657044574076934,"vote_q2_5_pp":3.0824862735808973,"vote_q90_pp":7.77782287648309,"vote_q97_5_pp":9.376661395734054,"zero_seat_probability":0.03755},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":1.2207565749966993,"contest_party_id":"BLUE_WHITE","display_name_en":"Blue and White","display_name_he":"כחול לבן","expected_seats":0.2643,"forecast_date":"2026-10-05","group_id":"UNCOMMITTED","headline_seats":0,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.045849999999999946,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.95415,"p_represented":0.04585,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_blue_white","raw_b5_point_pp":1.2434031306023683,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":0.0,"seat_range_display":"0","seat_range_high":null,"seat_range_low":null,"seat_range_mode":"ZERO_ONLY_RARE_REPRESENTATION","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":1.2205360032411312,"vote_q10_pp":0.3461202577636813,"vote_q2_5_pp":0.20121070194963095,"vote_q90_pp":2.428691602356288,"vote_q97_5_pp":4.019018821845705,"zero_seat_probability":0.95415},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":2.562047576916164,"contest_party_id":"K26_NATIVE_LIST::RESERVISTS_AND_NEW_ECONOMIC_PARTY","display_name_en":"Reservists–Economic","display_name_he":"המילואימניקים והכלכלית","expected_seats":1.44365,"forecast_date":"2026-10-05","group_id":"UNCOMMITTED","headline_seats":0,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.24370000000000003,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.7563,"p_represented":0.2437,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_reservists_economic","raw_b5_point_pp":2.609576751940397,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":6.0,"seat_range_display":"0, 4–9","seat_range_high":9,"seat_range_low":4,"seat_range_mode":"ZERO_SEPARATED_CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":2.5619169599642175,"vote_q10_pp":1.04229264401523,"vote_q2_5_pp":0.6991986415658408,"vote_q90_pp":4.544933277361349,"vote_q97_5_pp":6.616173488640011,"zero_seat_probability":0.7563},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":17.325179638512996,"contest_party_id":"LIKUD","display_name_en":"Likud","display_name_he":"הליכוד","expected_seats":23.647579294818243,"forecast_date":"2026-10-05","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":24,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":1.0,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.0,"p_represented":1.0,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_likud","raw_b5_point_pp":17.646583309071026,"seat_q10":20.0,"seat_q90":27.0,"seat_range_display":"20–27","seat_range_high":27,"seat_range_low":20,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":17.647692614378972,"vote_q10_pp":15.181569339629089,"vote_q2_5_pp":14.031729380357891,"vote_q90_pp":20.217857366076736,"vote_q97_5_pp":21.69706159921841,"zero_seat_probability":0.0},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":5.674072203137139,"contest_party_id":"SHAS","display_name_en":"Shas","display_name_he":"ש״ס","expected_seats":7.586244864177364,"forecast_date":"2026-10-05","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":8,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.9888958617878536,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.011104138212146373,"p_represented":0.9888958617878536,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_shas","raw_b5_point_pp":5.779333312756207,"seat_q10":5.0,"seat_q90":10.0,"seat_range_display":"5–10","seat_range_high":10,"seat_range_low":5,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":5.932195954514032,"vote_q10_pp":4.177180704905681,"vote_q2_5_pp":3.523625903477301,"vote_q90_pp":7.878889208794581,"vote_q97_5_pp":9.088006201962894,"zero_seat_probability":0.011104138212146373},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":5.9112369834026435,"contest_party_id":"UNITED_TORAH_JUDAISM","display_name_en":"United Torah Judaism","display_name_he":"יהדות התורה","expected_seats":7.559511735269896,"forecast_date":"2026-10-05","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":8,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.9931473444160198,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.006852655583980183,"p_represented":0.9931473444160197,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_utj","raw_b5_point_pp":6.020897795217872,"seat_q10":5.0,"seat_q90":10.0,"seat_range_display":"5–10","seat_range_high":10,"seat_range_low":5,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":5.905874633922593,"vote_q10_pp":4.294553374438359,"vote_q2_5_pp":3.663543975394813,"vote_q90_pp":7.647801537428665,"vote_q97_5_pp":8.778293603782695,"zero_seat_probability":0.006852655583980183},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":6.148316043002528,"contest_party_id":"OTZMA_YEHUDIT","display_name_en":"Otzma Yehudit","display_name_he":"עוצמה יהודית","expected_seats":7.879810870501624,"forecast_date":"2026-10-05","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":8,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.9940744339564441,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.005925566043555876,"p_represented":0.994074433956444,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_otzma","raw_b5_point_pp":6.262374966788755,"seat_q10":6.0,"seat_q90":10.0,"seat_range_display":"6–10","seat_range_high":10,"seat_range_low":6,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":6.138686523245449,"vote_q10_pp":4.4091502702179035,"vote_q2_5_pp":3.7347708680928005,"vote_q90_pp":7.986353050553048,"vote_q97_5_pp":9.236882141572602,"zero_seat_probability":0.005925566043555876},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":4.6553497364986365,"contest_party_id":"K26_NATIVE_LIST::RZP_AND_ZEHUT","display_name_en":"Religious Zionism–Zehut","display_name_he":"הציונות הדתית וזהות","expected_seats":5.598202394019,"forecast_date":"2026-10-05","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":6,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.8849526728082842,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.1150473271917159,"p_represented":0.884952672808284,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_religious_zionism_zehut","raw_b5_point_pp":4.741712274969288,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":8.0,"seat_range_display":"4–9","seat_range_high":9,"seat_range_low":4,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":4.7395027303104555,"vote_q10_pp":3.1425968614565276,"vote_q2_5_pp":2.436120776769789,"vote_q90_pp":6.486331424062622,"vote_q97_5_pp":7.733870488270229,"zero_seat_probability":0.1150473271917159},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":3.1153946705796183,"contest_party_id":"WINTER_NEW_PARTY","display_name_en":"Amcha Yisrael","display_name_he":"עמך ישראל","expected_seats":1.8575241085928105,"forecast_date":"2026-10-05","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":0,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.3453282216358322,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.6546717783641678,"p_represented":0.34532822163583216,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_amcha_yisrael","raw_b5_point_pp":3.1731891236965937,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":6.0,"seat_range_display":"0, 4–7","seat_range_high":7,"seat_range_low":4,"seat_range_mode":"ZERO_SEPARATED_CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":2.9490760837772036,"vote_q10_pp":1.5261001256024904,"vote_q2_5_pp":1.0957841744122618,"vote_q90_pp":4.645066352937201,"vote_q97_5_pp":5.9239047247791925,"zero_seat_probability":0.6546717783641678},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":0.5926263449995827,"contest_party_id":"K26_NATIVE_LIST::HAREDI_PUBLIC","display_name_en":"Haredi Public","display_name_he":"הציבור החרדי","expected_seats":0.01777169888365718,"forecast_date":"2026-10-05","group_id":"UNCOMMITTED","headline_seats":0,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.0029581031925497436,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.9970418968074503,"p_represented":0.002958103192549644,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_haredi_public","raw_b5_point_pp":0.6036203021490281,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":0.0,"seat_range_display":"0","seat_range_high":null,"seat_range_low":null,"seat_range_mode":"ZERO_ONLY_RARE_REPRESENTATION","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":0.5409144528984355,"vote_q10_pp":0.09917041218071247,"vote_q2_5_pp":0.05284157579001262,"vote_q90_pp":1.2080235456039417,"vote_q97_5_pp":2.1330431120059057,"zero_seat_probability":0.9970418968074503},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":9.496255939717082,"contest_party_id":"K26_NATIVE_LIST::BEYAHAD_BENNETT","display_name_en":"Beyachad","display_name_he":"ביחד","expected_seats":12.485706564006563,"forecast_date":"2026-10-05","group_id":"CHANGE_CORE","headline_seats":13,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":1.0,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.0,"p_represented":1.0,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_beyachad","raw_b5_point_pp":9.672423320331067,"seat_q10":10.0,"seat_q90":16.0,"seat_range_display":"10–16","seat_range_high":16,"seat_range_low":10,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":9.494368412807585,"vote_q10_pp":7.360552393435779,"vote_q2_5_pp":6.446442418245034,"vote_q90_pp":11.752216260354409,"vote_q97_5_pp":13.245757982876198,"zero_seat_probability":0.0},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":17.11954298996529,"contest_party_id":"YASHAR_GADI_EISENKOT","display_name_en":"Yashar!","display_name_he":"ישר!","expected_seats":23.10920814048299,"forecast_date":"2026-10-05","group_id":"CHANGE_CORE","headline_seats":23,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":1.0,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.0,"p_represented":1.0,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_yashar","raw_b5_point_pp":17.437131844456562,"seat_q10":20.0,"seat_q90":26.0,"seat_range_display":"20–26","seat_range_high":26,"seat_range_low":20,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":17.255063629407534,"vote_q10_pp":15.044699037186446,"vote_q2_5_pp":13.962827783851194,"vote_q90_pp":19.581192369809628,"vote_q97_5_pp":20.96069051378256,"zero_seat_probability":0.0},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":6.636587551468527,"contest_party_id":"YISRAEL_BEITEINU","display_name_en":"Yisrael Beiteinu","display_name_he":"ישראל ביתנו","expected_seats":8.351822743803874,"forecast_date":"2026-10-05","group_id":"CHANGE_CORE","headline_seats":8,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.9980567511899149,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.0019432488100851325,"p_represented":0.9980567511899147,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_yisrael_beiteinu","raw_b5_point_pp":6.759704520153811,"seat_q10":6.0,"seat_q90":11.0,"seat_range_display":"6–11","seat_range_high":11,"seat_range_low":6,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":6.477283762998489,"vote_q10_pp":4.74636899181735,"vote_q2_5_pp":4.070105686212206,"vote_q90_pp":8.297185599109321,"vote_q97_5_pp":9.706900164995348,"zero_seat_probability":0.0019432488100851325},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":7.5500847560611195,"contest_party_id":"THE_DEMOCRATS","display_name_en":"The Democrats","display_name_he":"הדמוקרטים","expected_seats":9.70872686801182,"forecast_date":"2026-10-05","group_id":"CHANGE_CORE","headline_seats":10,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.9998963981652599,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.00010360183474006948,"p_represented":0.9998963981652599,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_democrats","raw_b5_point_pp":7.690148236166573,"seat_q10":7.0,"seat_q90":12.0,"seat_range_display":"7–12","seat_range_high":12,"seat_range_low":7,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":7.4620655085893635,"vote_q10_pp":5.673528764238775,"vote_q2_5_pp":4.892362231645277,"vote_q90_pp":9.40101094841806,"vote_q97_5_pp":10.827912943798053,"zero_seat_probability":0.00010360183474006948},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":3.9503053370669323,"contest_party_id":"RAAM","display_name_en":"Raam","display_name_he":"רע״ם","expected_seats":3.8661159130291223,"forecast_date":"2026-10-05","group_id":"ARAB_LISTS","headline_seats":5,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.6755149379176424,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.3244850620823576,"p_represented":0.6755149379176424,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_raam","raw_b5_point_pp":4.023588423398455,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":7.0,"seat_range_display":"0, 4–8","seat_range_high":8,"seat_range_low":4,"seat_range_mode":"ZERO_SEPARATED_CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":3.9211455593747395,"vote_q10_pp":2.2948001929467075,"vote_q2_5_pp":1.7446917954794994,"vote_q90_pp":5.674426904255497,"vote_q97_5_pp":6.924259933342387,"zero_seat_probability":0.3244850620823576},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":5.64224365367504,"contest_party_id":"HADASH_TAAL_BALAD","display_name_en":"Joint List","display_name_he":"הרשימה המשותפת","expected_seats":7.221934004384928,"forecast_date":"2026-10-05","group_id":"ARAB_LISTS","headline_seats":7,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.9843991494363022,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.015600850563697715,"p_represented":0.9843991494363022,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_joint_list","raw_b5_point_pp":5.746914304041212,"seat_q10":5.0,"seat_q90":10.0,"seat_range_display":"5–10","seat_range_high":10,"seat_range_low":5,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":5.685429437149882,"vote_q10_pp":4.062761662191266,"vote_q2_5_pp":3.4056724712813042,"vote_q90_pp":7.4641975463247645,"vote_q97_5_pp":8.687482491332348,"zero_seat_probability":0.015600850563697715},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":1.2207565749966993,"contest_party_id":"BLUE_WHITE","display_name_en":"Blue and White","display_name_he":"כחול לבן","expected_seats":0.0678443698924211,"forecast_date":"2026-10-05","group_id":"UNCOMMITTED","headline_seats":0,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.011712671716767487,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.9882873282832325,"p_represented":0.011712671716767438,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_blue_white","raw_b5_point_pp":1.2434031306023683,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":0.0,"seat_range_display":"0","seat_range_high":null,"seat_range_low":null,"seat_range_mode":"ZERO_ONLY_RARE_REPRESENTATION","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":1.101694602384311,"vote_q10_pp":0.3457727890488049,"vote_q2_5_pp":0.2039340579610813,"vote_q90_pp":2.1449759597019433,"vote_q97_5_pp":2.957483177551996,"zero_seat_probability":0.9882873282832325},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":2.562047576916164,"contest_party_id":"K26_NATIVE_LIST::RESERVISTS_AND_NEW_ECONOMIC_PARTY","display_name_en":"Reservists–Economic","display_name_he":"המילואימניקים והכלכלית","expected_seats":1.041996430125684,"forecast_date":"2026-10-05","group_id":"UNCOMMITTED","headline_seats":0,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.19357731834225367,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.8064226816577463,"p_represented":0.19357731834225356,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_reservists_economic","raw_b5_point_pp":2.609576751940397,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":5.0,"seat_range_display":"0, 4–7","seat_range_high":7,"seat_range_low":4,"seat_range_mode":"ZERO_SEPARATED_CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":2.349006094240945,"vote_q10_pp":1.018314966088894,"vote_q2_5_pp":0.6906847178468485,"vote_q90_pp":3.9998551531329665,"vote_q97_5_pp":5.413634297845703,"zero_seat_probability":0.8064226816577463},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":17.325179638512996,"contest_party_id":"LIKUD","display_name_en":"Likud","display_name_he":"הליכוד","expected_seats":23.28345,"forecast_date":"2026-10-06","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":24,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":1.0,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.0,"p_represented":1.0,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_likud","raw_b5_point_pp":17.646583309071026,"seat_q10":20.0,"seat_q90":27.0,"seat_range_display":"20–27","seat_range_high":27,"seat_range_low":20,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":17.325241961996383,"vote_q10_pp":14.775883724400957,"vote_q2_5_pp":13.563346745539596,"vote_q90_pp":20.000071508059815,"vote_q97_5_pp":21.508124855737258,"zero_seat_probability":0.0},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":5.674072203137139,"contest_party_id":"SHAS","display_name_en":"Shas","display_name_he":"ש״ס","expected_seats":7.1636,"forecast_date":"2026-10-06","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":7,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.96705,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.03295,"p_represented":0.96705,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_shas","raw_b5_point_pp":5.779333312756207,"seat_q10":5.0,"seat_q90":10.0,"seat_range_display":"5–10","seat_range_high":10,"seat_range_low":5,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":5.6740862213859105,"vote_q10_pp":3.81246133777585,"vote_q2_5_pp":3.1471752498279453,"vote_q90_pp":7.77698544475628,"vote_q97_5_pp":9.32065442477146,"zero_seat_probability":0.03295},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":5.9112369834026435,"contest_party_id":"UNITED_TORAH_JUDAISM","display_name_en":"United Torah Judaism","display_name_he":"יהדות התורה","expected_seats":7.53445,"forecast_date":"2026-10-06","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":8,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.9792,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.0208,"p_represented":0.9792,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_utj","raw_b5_point_pp":6.020897795217872,"seat_q10":5.0,"seat_q90":10.0,"seat_range_display":"5–11","seat_range_high":11,"seat_range_low":5,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":5.911250325221466,"vote_q10_pp":4.024700048077541,"vote_q2_5_pp":3.3098587989665695,"vote_q90_pp":7.99789136890433,"vote_q97_5_pp":9.59666631022296,"zero_seat_probability":0.0208},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":6.148316043002528,"contest_party_id":"OTZMA_YEHUDIT","display_name_en":"Otzma Yehudit","display_name_he":"עוצמה יהודית","expected_seats":7.8775,"forecast_date":"2026-10-06","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":8,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.9832,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.0168,"p_represented":0.9832,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_otzma","raw_b5_point_pp":6.262374966788755,"seat_q10":5.0,"seat_q90":11.0,"seat_range_display":"5–11","seat_range_high":11,"seat_range_low":5,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":6.14830246059121,"vote_q10_pp":4.139318338768365,"vote_q2_5_pp":3.421572733210535,"vote_q90_pp":8.403428748111537,"vote_q97_5_pp":10.073376218472102,"zero_seat_probability":0.0168},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":4.6553497364986365,"contest_party_id":"K26_NATIVE_LIST::RZP_AND_ZEHUT","display_name_en":"Religious Zionism–Zehut","display_name_he":"הציונות הדתית וזהות","expected_seats":5.2587,"forecast_date":"2026-10-06","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":6,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.8156,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.1844,"p_represented":0.8156,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_religious_zionism_zehut","raw_b5_point_pp":4.741712274969288,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":9.0,"seat_range_display":"4–9","seat_range_high":9,"seat_range_low":4,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":4.655293677264185,"vote_q10_pp":2.8615563683378005,"vote_q2_5_pp":2.2532104626476657,"vote_q90_pp":6.763033983799181,"vote_q97_5_pp":8.474023934249095,"zero_seat_probability":0.1844},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":3.1153946705796183,"contest_party_id":"WINTER_NEW_PARTY","display_name_en":"Amcha Yisrael","display_name_he":"עמך ישראל","expected_seats":2.19355,"forecast_date":"2026-10-06","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":0,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.37715,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.62285,"p_represented":0.37715,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_amcha_yisrael","raw_b5_point_pp":3.1731891236965937,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":6.0,"seat_range_display":"0, 4–8","seat_range_high":8,"seat_range_low":4,"seat_range_mode":"ZERO_SEPARATED_CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":3.11544664469127,"vote_q10_pp":1.508238683435312,"vote_q2_5_pp":1.0965739481375207,"vote_q90_pp":5.135831414313974,"vote_q97_5_pp":7.014158230005435,"zero_seat_probability":0.62285},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":0.5926263449995827,"contest_party_id":"K26_NATIVE_LIST::HAREDI_PUBLIC","display_name_en":"Haredi Public","display_name_he":"הציבור החרדי","expected_seats":0.0802,"forecast_date":"2026-10-06","group_id":"UNCOMMITTED","headline_seats":0,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.0131,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.9869,"p_represented":0.0131,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_haredi_public","raw_b5_point_pp":0.6036203021490281,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":0.0,"seat_range_display":"0","seat_range_high":null,"seat_range_low":null,"seat_range_mode":"ZERO_ONLY_RARE_REPRESENTATION","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":0.5925358728434832,"vote_q10_pp":0.10175623314795332,"vote_q2_5_pp":0.05099325561591063,"vote_q90_pp":1.2975334806620153,"vote_q97_5_pp":2.4877558198644065,"zero_seat_probability":0.9869},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":9.496255939717082,"contest_party_id":"K26_NATIVE_LIST::BEYAHAD_BENNETT","display_name_en":"Beyachad","display_name_he":"ביחד","expected_seats":12.5398,"forecast_date":"2026-10-06","group_id":"CHANGE_CORE","headline_seats":13,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":1.0,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.0,"p_represented":1.0,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_beyachad","raw_b5_point_pp":9.672423320331067,"seat_q10":9.0,"seat_q90":16.0,"seat_range_display":"9–16","seat_range_high":16,"seat_range_low":9,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":9.496259600982896,"vote_q10_pp":7.176174710060096,"vote_q2_5_pp":6.286567436582545,"vote_q90_pp":12.028076949159125,"vote_q97_5_pp":13.644432576804242,"zero_seat_probability":0.0},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":17.11954298996529,"contest_party_id":"YASHAR_GADI_EISENKOT","display_name_en":"Yashar!","display_name_he":"ישר!","expected_seats":22.9994,"forecast_date":"2026-10-06","group_id":"CHANGE_CORE","headline_seats":23,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":1.0,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.0,"p_represented":1.0,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_yashar","raw_b5_point_pp":17.437131844456562,"seat_q10":19.0,"seat_q90":27.0,"seat_range_display":"19–27","seat_range_high":27,"seat_range_low":19,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":17.11946825074463,"vote_q10_pp":14.493364710957328,"vote_q2_5_pp":13.286370004998497,"vote_q90_pp":19.888793336194844,"vote_q97_5_pp":21.462530610076293,"zero_seat_probability":0.0},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":6.636587551468527,"contest_party_id":"YISRAEL_BEITEINU","display_name_en":"Yisrael Beiteinu","display_name_he":"ישראל ביתנו","expected_seats":8.5918,"forecast_date":"2026-10-06","group_id":"CHANGE_CORE","headline_seats":9,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.99495,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.00505,"p_represented":0.99495,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_yisrael_beiteinu","raw_b5_point_pp":6.759704520153811,"seat_q10":6.0,"seat_q90":12.0,"seat_range_display":"6–12","seat_range_high":12,"seat_range_low":6,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":6.636583743125241,"vote_q10_pp":4.575395068290799,"vote_q2_5_pp":3.8063277326106597,"vote_q90_pp":8.934144239819501,"vote_q97_5_pp":10.699631993096688,"zero_seat_probability":0.00505},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":7.5500847560611195,"contest_party_id":"THE_DEMOCRATS","display_name_en":"The Democrats","display_name_he":"הדמוקרטים","expected_seats":9.86295,"forecast_date":"2026-10-06","group_id":"CHANGE_CORE","headline_seats":10,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.99955,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.00045,"p_represented":0.99955,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_democrats","raw_b5_point_pp":7.690148236166573,"seat_q10":7.0,"seat_q90":13.0,"seat_range_display":"7–13","seat_range_high":13,"seat_range_low":7,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":7.550094092214467,"vote_q10_pp":5.382480004801551,"vote_q2_5_pp":4.536918007912274,"vote_q90_pp":9.966139907490032,"vote_q97_5_pp":11.652444329265471,"zero_seat_probability":0.00045},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":3.9503053370669323,"contest_party_id":"RAAM","display_name_en":"Raam","display_name_he":"רע״ם","expected_seats":3.7745,"forecast_date":"2026-10-06","group_id":"ARAB_LISTS","headline_seats":5,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.62495,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.37505,"p_represented":0.62495,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_raam","raw_b5_point_pp":4.023588423398455,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":8.0,"seat_range_display":"0, 4–9","seat_range_high":9,"seat_range_low":4,"seat_range_mode":"ZERO_SEPARATED_CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":3.9503765010545555,"vote_q10_pp":2.214880589493251,"vote_q2_5_pp":1.6825814037242244,"vote_q90_pp":6.0445354174127655,"vote_q97_5_pp":7.722997680384644,"zero_seat_probability":0.37505},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":5.64224365367504,"contest_party_id":"HADASH_TAAL_BALAD","display_name_en":"Joint List","display_name_he":"הרשימה המשותפת","expected_seats":7.10285,"forecast_date":"2026-10-06","group_id":"ARAB_LISTS","headline_seats":7,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.9612,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.0388,"p_represented":0.9612,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_joint_list","raw_b5_point_pp":5.746914304041212,"seat_q10":5.0,"seat_q90":10.0,"seat_range_display":"5–10","seat_range_high":10,"seat_range_low":5,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":5.642180533735566,"vote_q10_pp":3.7594633317505655,"vote_q2_5_pp":3.07995728270503,"vote_q90_pp":7.808379922291311,"vote_q97_5_pp":9.426646966527473,"zero_seat_probability":0.0388},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":1.2207565749966993,"contest_party_id":"BLUE_WHITE","display_name_en":"Blue and White","display_name_he":"כחול לבן","expected_seats":0.2777,"forecast_date":"2026-10-06","group_id":"UNCOMMITTED","headline_seats":0,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.047799999999999954,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.9522,"p_represented":0.0478,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_blue_white","raw_b5_point_pp":1.2434031306023683,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":0.0,"seat_range_display":"0","seat_range_high":null,"seat_range_low":null,"seat_range_mode":"ZERO_ONLY_RARE_REPRESENTATION","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":1.2207546769799937,"vote_q10_pp":0.3420532780993442,"vote_q2_5_pp":0.2015296957442294,"vote_q90_pp":2.4606762310105887,"vote_q97_5_pp":4.0496941862330695,"zero_seat_probability":0.9522},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":2.562047576916164,"contest_party_id":"K26_NATIVE_LIST::RESERVISTS_AND_NEW_ECONOMIC_PARTY","display_name_en":"Reservists–Economic","display_name_he":"המילואימניקים והכלכלית","expected_seats":1.45955,"forecast_date":"2026-10-06","group_id":"UNCOMMITTED","headline_seats":0,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.246,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.754,"p_represented":0.246,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_reservists_economic","raw_b5_point_pp":2.609576751940397,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":6.0,"seat_range_display":"0, 4–9","seat_range_high":9,"seat_range_low":4,"seat_range_mode":"ZERO_SEPARATED_CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":2.5621254371687416,"vote_q10_pp":1.0162830486367467,"vote_q2_5_pp":0.6780978452785242,"vote_q90_pp":4.572064570638302,"vote_q97_5_pp":6.669143930885811,"zero_seat_probability":0.754},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":17.325179638512996,"contest_party_id":"LIKUD","display_name_en":"Likud","display_name_he":"הליכוד","expected_seats":23.6823280953356,"forecast_date":"2026-10-06","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":24,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":1.0,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.0,"p_represented":1.0,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_likud","raw_b5_point_pp":17.646583309071026,"seat_q10":20.0,"seat_q90":27.0,"seat_range_display":"20–27","seat_range_high":27,"seat_range_low":20,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":17.673610922765164,"vote_q10_pp":15.194974922378984,"vote_q2_5_pp":13.964961214634997,"vote_q90_pp":20.251482521686484,"vote_q97_5_pp":21.66875732585768,"zero_seat_probability":0.0},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":5.674072203137139,"contest_party_id":"SHAS","display_name_en":"Shas","display_name_he":"ש״ס","expected_seats":7.559369293679623,"forecast_date":"2026-10-06","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":8,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.9887527905394766,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.011247209460523365,"p_represented":0.9887527905394766,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_shas","raw_b5_point_pp":5.779333312756207,"seat_q10":5.0,"seat_q90":10.0,"seat_range_display":"5–10","seat_range_high":10,"seat_range_low":5,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":5.9194707804120466,"vote_q10_pp":4.170636154151694,"vote_q2_5_pp":3.504671762463835,"vote_q90_pp":7.811247986717824,"vote_q97_5_pp":9.116980717024592,"zero_seat_probability":0.011247209460523365},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":5.9112369834026435,"contest_party_id":"UNITED_TORAH_JUDAISM","display_name_en":"United Torah Judaism","display_name_he":"יהדות התורה","expected_seats":7.556369576185017,"forecast_date":"2026-10-06","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":8,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.992208395964421,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.007791604035578973,"p_represented":0.992208395964421,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_utj","raw_b5_point_pp":6.020897795217872,"seat_q10":5.0,"seat_q90":10.0,"seat_range_display":"5–10","seat_range_high":10,"seat_range_low":5,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":5.908260813656452,"vote_q10_pp":4.297618266880122,"vote_q2_5_pp":3.6345012116837534,"vote_q90_pp":7.636897355230901,"vote_q97_5_pp":8.830375712729156,"zero_seat_probability":0.007791604035578973},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":6.148316043002528,"contest_party_id":"OTZMA_YEHUDIT","display_name_en":"Otzma Yehudit","display_name_he":"עוצמה יהודית","expected_seats":7.847312996197056,"forecast_date":"2026-10-06","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":8,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.9937596221166523,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.006240377883347714,"p_represented":0.9937596221166523,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_otzma","raw_b5_point_pp":6.262374966788755,"seat_q10":6.0,"seat_q90":10.0,"seat_range_display":"6–10","seat_range_high":10,"seat_range_low":6,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":6.118409751917622,"vote_q10_pp":4.4110231236142985,"vote_q2_5_pp":3.7237354047262268,"vote_q90_pp":7.933935375763178,"vote_q97_5_pp":9.226768025328896,"zero_seat_probability":0.006240377883347714},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":4.6553497364986365,"contest_party_id":"K26_NATIVE_LIST::RZP_AND_ZEHUT","display_name_en":"Religious Zionism–Zehut","display_name_he":"הציונות הדתית וזהות","expected_seats":5.592075646271551,"forecast_date":"2026-10-06","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":6,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.8832648294818242,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.11673517051817586,"p_represented":0.883264829481824,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_religious_zionism_zehut","raw_b5_point_pp":4.741712274969288,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":8.0,"seat_range_display":"4–9","seat_range_high":9,"seat_range_low":4,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":4.7458340106073535,"vote_q10_pp":3.147047673591186,"vote_q2_5_pp":2.4396359038703936,"vote_q90_pp":6.4736598021814045,"vote_q97_5_pp":7.735905041054672,"zero_seat_probability":0.11673517051817586},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":3.1153946705796183,"contest_party_id":"WINTER_NEW_PARTY","display_name_en":"Amcha Yisrael","display_name_he":"עמך ישראל","expected_seats":1.8586628479846945,"forecast_date":"2026-10-06","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":0,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.34341969567954167,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.6565803043204583,"p_represented":0.34341969567954156,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_amcha_yisrael","raw_b5_point_pp":3.1731891236965937,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":6.0,"seat_range_display":"0, 4–7","seat_range_high":7,"seat_range_low":4,"seat_range_mode":"ZERO_SEPARATED_CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":2.9416500651573836,"vote_q10_pp":1.4894394424153226,"vote_q2_5_pp":1.0875943589196253,"vote_q90_pp":4.678885331664107,"vote_q97_5_pp":6.000729110808549,"zero_seat_probability":0.6565803043204583},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":0.5926263449995827,"contest_party_id":"K26_NATIVE_LIST::HAREDI_PUBLIC","display_name_en":"Haredi Public","display_name_he":"הציבור החרדי","expected_seats":0.017895283082717754,"forecast_date":"2026-10-06","group_id":"UNCOMMITTED","headline_seats":0,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.0030428336160431835,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.9969571663839568,"p_represented":0.0030428336160431392,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_haredi_public","raw_b5_point_pp":0.6036203021490281,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":0.0,"seat_range_display":"0","seat_range_high":null,"seat_range_low":null,"seat_range_mode":"ZERO_ONLY_RARE_REPRESENTATION","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":0.5379433018608409,"vote_q10_pp":0.10031338999757619,"vote_q2_5_pp":0.04957423563282909,"vote_q90_pp":1.2112316327813013,"vote_q97_5_pp":2.088116520931737,"zero_seat_probability":0.9969571663839568},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":9.496255939717082,"contest_party_id":"K26_NATIVE_LIST::BEYAHAD_BENNETT","display_name_en":"Beyachad","display_name_he":"ביחד","expected_seats":12.479720163024174,"forecast_date":"2026-10-06","group_id":"CHANGE_CORE","headline_seats":13,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":1.0,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.0,"p_represented":1.0,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_beyachad","raw_b5_point_pp":9.672423320331067,"seat_q10":9.0,"seat_q90":16.0,"seat_range_display":"9–16","seat_range_high":16,"seat_range_low":9,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":9.486194484105608,"vote_q10_pp":7.317665539800817,"vote_q2_5_pp":6.455212997009011,"vote_q90_pp":11.774476312890489,"vote_q97_5_pp":13.186858562469158,"zero_seat_probability":0.0},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":17.11954298996529,"contest_party_id":"YASHAR_GADI_EISENKOT","display_name_en":"Yashar!","display_name_he":"ישר!","expected_seats":23.116475182081786,"forecast_date":"2026-10-06","group_id":"CHANGE_CORE","headline_seats":23,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":1.0,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.0,"p_represented":1.0,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_yashar","raw_b5_point_pp":17.437131844456562,"seat_q10":20.0,"seat_q90":26.0,"seat_range_display":"20–26","seat_range_high":26,"seat_range_low":20,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":17.264382247365837,"vote_q10_pp":15.041765632276025,"vote_q2_5_pp":13.959270045403853,"vote_q90_pp":19.62874562836925,"vote_q97_5_pp":20.992982771923657,"zero_seat_probability":0.0},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":6.636587551468527,"contest_party_id":"YISRAEL_BEITEINU","display_name_en":"Yisrael Beiteinu","display_name_he":"ישראל ביתנו","expected_seats":8.343058734380609,"forecast_date":"2026-10-06","group_id":"CHANGE_CORE","headline_seats":8,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.9981876909670262,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.0018123090329738433,"p_represented":0.998187690967026,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_yisrael_beiteinu","raw_b5_point_pp":6.759704520153811,"seat_q10":6.0,"seat_q90":11.0,"seat_range_display":"6–11","seat_range_high":11,"seat_range_low":6,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":6.4685548016594385,"vote_q10_pp":4.7154391696215665,"vote_q2_5_pp":4.02145294903225,"vote_q90_pp":8.314273265886184,"vote_q97_5_pp":9.707390536696208,"zero_seat_probability":0.0018123090329738433},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":7.5500847560611195,"contest_party_id":"THE_DEMOCRATS","display_name_en":"The Democrats","display_name_he":"הדמוקרטים","expected_seats":9.729498388358717,"forecast_date":"2026-10-06","group_id":"CHANGE_CORE","headline_seats":10,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.9999214979341529,"p_below_legal_threshold":7.850206584711075e-05,"p_represented":0.9999214979341529,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_democrats","raw_b5_point_pp":7.690148236166573,"seat_q10":7.0,"seat_q90":12.0,"seat_range_display":"7–12","seat_range_high":12,"seat_range_low":7,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":7.479819065775065,"vote_q10_pp":5.663317538780123,"vote_q2_5_pp":4.872401424863276,"vote_q90_pp":9.39244231958395,"vote_q97_5_pp":10.728757460844939,"zero_seat_probability":7.850206584711075e-05},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":3.9503053370669323,"contest_party_id":"RAAM","display_name_en":"Raam","display_name_he":"רע״ם","expected_seats":3.8629934205481664,"forecast_date":"2026-10-06","group_id":"ARAB_LISTS","headline_seats":5,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.6726904615289687,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.3273095384710313,"p_represented":0.6726904615289686,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_raam","raw_b5_point_pp":4.023588423398455,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":7.0,"seat_range_display":"0, 4–8","seat_range_high":8,"seat_range_low":4,"seat_range_mode":"ZERO_SEPARATED_CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":3.9228726158213907,"vote_q10_pp":2.2897152205347693,"vote_q2_5_pp":1.7297538791325893,"vote_q90_pp":5.698007292807663,"vote_q97_5_pp":6.889078663937795,"zero_seat_probability":0.3273095384710313},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":5.64224365367504,"contest_party_id":"HADASH_TAAL_BALAD","display_name_en":"Joint List","display_name_he":"הרשימה המשותפת","expected_seats":7.217161562423871,"forecast_date":"2026-10-06","group_id":"ARAB_LISTS","headline_seats":7,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.983806571277007,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.016193428722993033,"p_represented":0.9838065712770069,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_joint_list","raw_b5_point_pp":5.746914304041212,"seat_q10":5.0,"seat_q90":10.0,"seat_range_display":"5–10","seat_range_high":10,"seat_range_low":5,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":5.685652027710301,"vote_q10_pp":4.040089837719018,"vote_q2_5_pp":3.4061151969594285,"vote_q90_pp":7.487578696373384,"vote_q97_5_pp":8.727188304349927,"zero_seat_probability":0.016193428722993033},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":1.2207565749966993,"contest_party_id":"BLUE_WHITE","display_name_en":"Blue and White","display_name_he":"כחול לבן","expected_seats":0.07380713580295487,"forecast_date":"2026-10-06","group_id":"UNCOMMITTED","headline_seats":0,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.012663132730183158,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.9873368672698168,"p_represented":0.012663132730183053,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_blue_white","raw_b5_point_pp":1.2434031306023683,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":0.0,"seat_range_display":"0","seat_range_high":null,"seat_range_low":null,"seat_range_mode":"ZERO_ONLY_RARE_REPRESENTATION","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":1.0935319738653357,"vote_q10_pp":0.3348328254213496,"vote_q2_5_pp":0.20224068269927226,"vote_q90_pp":2.1531021645083976,"vote_q97_5_pp":3.011319220218084,"zero_seat_probability":0.9873368672698168},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":2.562047576916164,"contest_party_id":"K26_NATIVE_LIST::RESERVISTS_AND_NEW_ECONOMIC_PARTY","display_name_en":"Reservists–Economic","display_name_he":"המילואימניקים והכלכלית","expected_seats":1.0632716746434605,"forecast_date":"2026-10-06","group_id":"UNCOMMITTED","headline_seats":0,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.19702633735495012,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.8029736626450499,"p_represented":0.19702633735494998,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_reservists_economic","raw_b5_point_pp":2.609576751940397,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":5.0,"seat_range_display":"0, 4–7","seat_range_high":7,"seat_range_low":4,"seat_range_mode":"ZERO_SEPARATED_CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":2.3538131373201514,"vote_q10_pp":1.0078197861261164,"vote_q2_5_pp":0.6772264785360155,"vote_q90_pp":4.056245799273576,"vote_q97_5_pp":5.448453134211042,"zero_seat_probability":0.8029736626450499},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":17.325179638512996,"contest_party_id":"LIKUD","display_name_en":"Likud","display_name_he":"הליכוד","expected_seats":23.2799,"forecast_date":"2026-10-07","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":24,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":1.0,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.0,"p_represented":1.0,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_likud","raw_b5_point_pp":17.646583309071026,"seat_q10":20.0,"seat_q90":27.0,"seat_range_display":"20–27","seat_range_high":27,"seat_range_low":20,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":17.3251574008964,"vote_q10_pp":14.825266818623271,"vote_q2_5_pp":13.629193093070906,"vote_q90_pp":19.945359172574374,"vote_q97_5_pp":21.58509086599453,"zero_seat_probability":0.0},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":5.674072203137139,"contest_party_id":"SHAS","display_name_en":"Shas","display_name_he":"ש״ס","expected_seats":7.17705,"forecast_date":"2026-10-07","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":7,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.96955,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.03045,"p_represented":0.96955,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_shas","raw_b5_point_pp":5.779333312756207,"seat_q10":5.0,"seat_q90":10.0,"seat_range_display":"5–10","seat_range_high":10,"seat_range_low":5,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":5.674038111035553,"vote_q10_pp":3.834537853176523,"vote_q2_5_pp":3.1630422579434074,"vote_q90_pp":7.802530875846702,"vote_q97_5_pp":9.351252134423671,"zero_seat_probability":0.03045},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":5.9112369834026435,"contest_party_id":"UNITED_TORAH_JUDAISM","display_name_en":"United Torah Judaism","display_name_he":"יהדות התורה","expected_seats":7.5456,"forecast_date":"2026-10-07","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":8,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.98225,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.01775,"p_represented":0.98225,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_utj","raw_b5_point_pp":6.020897795217872,"seat_q10":5.0,"seat_q90":11.0,"seat_range_display":"5–11","seat_range_high":11,"seat_range_low":5,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":5.911239799751881,"vote_q10_pp":4.058199055032426,"vote_q2_5_pp":3.386562925541272,"vote_q90_pp":8.021680339008435,"vote_q97_5_pp":9.54117015935052,"zero_seat_probability":0.01775},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":6.148316043002528,"contest_party_id":"OTZMA_YEHUDIT","display_name_en":"Otzma Yehudit","display_name_he":"עוצמה יהודית","expected_seats":7.88105,"forecast_date":"2026-10-07","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":8,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.98355,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.01645,"p_represented":0.98355,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_otzma","raw_b5_point_pp":6.262374966788755,"seat_q10":5.0,"seat_q90":11.0,"seat_range_display":"5–11","seat_range_high":11,"seat_range_low":5,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":6.148180592973385,"vote_q10_pp":4.144229697704832,"vote_q2_5_pp":3.405055437534508,"vote_q90_pp":8.41256563018827,"vote_q97_5_pp":10.08167274527802,"zero_seat_probability":0.01645},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":4.6553497364986365,"contest_party_id":"K26_NATIVE_LIST::RZP_AND_ZEHUT","display_name_en":"Religious Zionism–Zehut","display_name_he":"הציונות הדתית וזהות","expected_seats":5.28445,"forecast_date":"2026-10-07","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":6,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.82255,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.17745,"p_represented":0.82255,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_religious_zionism_zehut","raw_b5_point_pp":4.741712274969288,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":9.0,"seat_range_display":"4–9","seat_range_high":9,"seat_range_low":4,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":4.6553744005255995,"vote_q10_pp":2.872271412957682,"vote_q2_5_pp":2.276898698361218,"vote_q90_pp":6.723069249794422,"vote_q97_5_pp":8.398718937659043,"zero_seat_probability":0.17745},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":3.1153946705796183,"contest_party_id":"WINTER_NEW_PARTY","display_name_en":"Amcha Yisrael","display_name_he":"עמך ישראל","expected_seats":2.1738,"forecast_date":"2026-10-07","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":0,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.37739999999999996,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.6226,"p_represented":0.3774,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_amcha_yisrael","raw_b5_point_pp":3.1731891236965937,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":6.0,"seat_range_display":"0, 4–8","seat_range_high":8,"seat_range_low":4,"seat_range_mode":"ZERO_SEPARATED_CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":3.11552424995135,"vote_q10_pp":1.5238221685248727,"vote_q2_5_pp":1.1054624078826192,"vote_q90_pp":5.070656448847995,"vote_q97_5_pp":6.893604359355636,"zero_seat_probability":0.6226},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":0.5926263449995827,"contest_party_id":"K26_NATIVE_LIST::HAREDI_PUBLIC","display_name_en":"Haredi Public","display_name_he":"הציבור החרדי","expected_seats":0.07925,"forecast_date":"2026-10-07","group_id":"UNCOMMITTED","headline_seats":0,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.012950000000000017,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.98705,"p_represented":0.01295,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_haredi_public","raw_b5_point_pp":0.6036203021490281,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":0.0,"seat_range_display":"0","seat_range_high":null,"seat_range_low":null,"seat_range_mode":"ZERO_ONLY_RARE_REPRESENTATION","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":0.5926075068594105,"vote_q10_pp":0.10345527020448261,"vote_q2_5_pp":0.05401111747542464,"vote_q90_pp":1.2889551255743736,"vote_q97_5_pp":2.5018042309586193,"zero_seat_probability":0.98705},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":9.496255939717082,"contest_party_id":"K26_NATIVE_LIST::BEYAHAD_BENNETT","display_name_en":"Beyachad","display_name_he":"ביחד","expected_seats":12.5387,"forecast_date":"2026-10-07","group_id":"CHANGE_CORE","headline_seats":13,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":1.0,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.0,"p_represented":1.0,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_beyachad","raw_b5_point_pp":9.672423320331067,"seat_q10":9.0,"seat_q90":16.0,"seat_range_display":"9–16","seat_range_high":16,"seat_range_low":9,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":9.496157102428793,"vote_q10_pp":7.203766202373802,"vote_q2_5_pp":6.264917259675942,"vote_q90_pp":11.981396556832685,"vote_q97_5_pp":13.626720110563578,"zero_seat_probability":0.0},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":17.11954298996529,"contest_party_id":"YASHAR_GADI_EISENKOT","display_name_en":"Yashar!","display_name_he":"ישר!","expected_seats":22.99835,"forecast_date":"2026-10-07","group_id":"CHANGE_CORE","headline_seats":23,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":1.0,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.0,"p_represented":1.0,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_yashar","raw_b5_point_pp":17.437131844456562,"seat_q10":19.0,"seat_q90":27.0,"seat_range_display":"19–27","seat_range_high":27,"seat_range_low":19,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":17.119579317494924,"vote_q10_pp":14.486900687788705,"vote_q2_5_pp":13.251419719296056,"vote_q90_pp":19.861749274851107,"vote_q97_5_pp":21.541756269909783,"zero_seat_probability":0.0},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":6.636587551468527,"contest_party_id":"YISRAEL_BEITEINU","display_name_en":"Yisrael Beiteinu","display_name_he":"ישראל ביתנו","expected_seats":8.59435,"forecast_date":"2026-10-07","group_id":"CHANGE_CORE","headline_seats":9,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.9954,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.0046,"p_represented":0.9954,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_yisrael_beiteinu","raw_b5_point_pp":6.759704520153811,"seat_q10":6.0,"seat_q90":12.0,"seat_range_display":"6–12","seat_range_high":12,"seat_range_low":6,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":6.636785163319524,"vote_q10_pp":4.604160422686028,"vote_q2_5_pp":3.819749720955061,"vote_q90_pp":8.907217713742531,"vote_q97_5_pp":10.59516282339586,"zero_seat_probability":0.0046},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":7.5500847560611195,"contest_party_id":"THE_DEMOCRATS","display_name_en":"The Democrats","display_name_he":"הדמוקרטים","expected_seats":9.86735,"forecast_date":"2026-10-07","group_id":"CHANGE_CORE","headline_seats":10,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.9998,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.0002,"p_represented":0.9998,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_democrats","raw_b5_point_pp":7.690148236166573,"seat_q10":7.0,"seat_q90":13.0,"seat_range_display":"7–13","seat_range_high":13,"seat_range_low":7,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":7.5499768753041865,"vote_q10_pp":5.3913371696121715,"vote_q2_5_pp":4.568396123711585,"vote_q90_pp":9.967170243113129,"vote_q97_5_pp":11.671653877119217,"zero_seat_probability":0.0002},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":3.9503053370669323,"contest_party_id":"RAAM","display_name_en":"Raam","display_name_he":"רע״ם","expected_seats":3.7727,"forecast_date":"2026-10-07","group_id":"ARAB_LISTS","headline_seats":5,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.62385,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.37615,"p_represented":0.62385,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_raam","raw_b5_point_pp":4.023588423398455,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":8.0,"seat_range_display":"0, 4–9","seat_range_high":9,"seat_range_low":4,"seat_range_mode":"ZERO_SEPARATED_CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":3.950333379087231,"vote_q10_pp":2.1955624799860787,"vote_q2_5_pp":1.6834874563244182,"vote_q90_pp":6.017855101391637,"vote_q97_5_pp":7.8194731402525255,"zero_seat_probability":0.37615},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":5.64224365367504,"contest_party_id":"HADASH_TAAL_BALAD","display_name_en":"Joint List","display_name_he":"הרשימה המשותפת","expected_seats":7.10655,"forecast_date":"2026-10-07","group_id":"ARAB_LISTS","headline_seats":7,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.9629,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.0371,"p_represented":0.9629,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_joint_list","raw_b5_point_pp":5.746914304041212,"seat_q10":5.0,"seat_q90":10.0,"seat_range_display":"5–10","seat_range_high":10,"seat_range_low":5,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":5.642251928267748,"vote_q10_pp":3.7654411415030835,"vote_q2_5_pp":3.0917052491848214,"vote_q90_pp":7.768588541494242,"vote_q97_5_pp":9.419167056043797,"zero_seat_probability":0.0371},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":1.2207565749966993,"contest_party_id":"BLUE_WHITE","display_name_en":"Blue and White","display_name_he":"כחול לבן","expected_seats":0.2668,"forecast_date":"2026-10-07","group_id":"UNCOMMITTED","headline_seats":0,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.04620000000000002,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.9538,"p_represented":0.0462,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_blue_white","raw_b5_point_pp":1.2434031306023683,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":0.0,"seat_range_display":"0","seat_range_high":null,"seat_range_low":null,"seat_range_mode":"ZERO_ONLY_RARE_REPRESENTATION","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":1.2206750654847873,"vote_q10_pp":0.34875233059527544,"vote_q2_5_pp":0.20428017549960611,"vote_q90_pp":2.4129602338806966,"vote_q97_5_pp":3.9863731610195163,"zero_seat_probability":0.9538},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":2.562047576916164,"contest_party_id":"K26_NATIVE_LIST::RESERVISTS_AND_NEW_ECONOMIC_PARTY","display_name_en":"Reservists–Economic","display_name_he":"המילואימניקים והכלכלית","expected_seats":1.4341,"forecast_date":"2026-10-07","group_id":"UNCOMMITTED","headline_seats":0,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.24134999999999995,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.75865,"p_represented":0.24135,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_reservists_economic","raw_b5_point_pp":2.609576751940397,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":6.0,"seat_range_display":"0, 4–9","seat_range_high":9,"seat_range_low":4,"seat_range_mode":"ZERO_SEPARATED_CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":2.5621191066192286,"vote_q10_pp":1.0405963567504875,"vote_q2_5_pp":0.6904091991220508,"vote_q90_pp":4.517524081399544,"vote_q97_5_pp":6.674294063274052,"zero_seat_probability":0.75865},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":17.325179638512996,"contest_party_id":"LIKUD","display_name_en":"Likud","display_name_he":"הליכוד","expected_seats":23.63109351675347,"forecast_date":"2026-10-07","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":24,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":1.0,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.0,"p_represented":1.0,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_likud","raw_b5_point_pp":17.646583309071026,"seat_q10":20.0,"seat_q90":27.0,"seat_range_display":"20–27","seat_range_high":27,"seat_range_low":20,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":17.635375640315864,"vote_q10_pp":15.190156589147078,"vote_q2_5_pp":14.007468577207709,"vote_q90_pp":20.19545048764352,"vote_q97_5_pp":21.721497413758456,"zero_seat_probability":0.0},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":5.674072203137139,"contest_party_id":"SHAS","display_name_en":"Shas","display_name_he":"ש״ס","expected_seats":7.56197558970525,"forecast_date":"2026-10-07","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":8,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.9892756192437361,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.010724380756263925,"p_represented":0.989275619243736,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_shas","raw_b5_point_pp":5.779333312756207,"seat_q10":5.0,"seat_q90":10.0,"seat_range_display":"5–10","seat_range_high":10,"seat_range_low":5,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":5.9177096877546855,"vote_q10_pp":4.183577987144313,"vote_q2_5_pp":3.5246709377578003,"vote_q90_pp":7.835498583236731,"vote_q97_5_pp":9.122528622453224,"zero_seat_probability":0.010724380756263925},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":5.9112369834026435,"contest_party_id":"UNITED_TORAH_JUDAISM","display_name_en":"United Torah Judaism","display_name_he":"יהדות התורה","expected_seats":7.535690663140414,"forecast_date":"2026-10-07","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":8,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.993112622806744,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.006887377193256006,"p_represented":0.993112622806744,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_utj","raw_b5_point_pp":6.020897795217872,"seat_q10":5.0,"seat_q90":10.0,"seat_range_display":"5–10","seat_range_high":10,"seat_range_low":5,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":5.894039825013399,"vote_q10_pp":4.2957375208484825,"vote_q2_5_pp":3.693554318126763,"vote_q90_pp":7.590148195958257,"vote_q97_5_pp":8.789687761348457,"zero_seat_probability":0.006887377193256006},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":6.148316043002528,"contest_party_id":"OTZMA_YEHUDIT","display_name_en":"Otzma Yehudit","display_name_he":"עוצמה יהודית","expected_seats":7.862347633569596,"forecast_date":"2026-10-07","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":8,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.9943889815538901,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.005611018446109926,"p_represented":0.9943889815538901,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_otzma","raw_b5_point_pp":6.262374966788755,"seat_q10":6.0,"seat_q90":10.0,"seat_range_display":"6–10","seat_range_high":10,"seat_range_low":6,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":6.1263889227837,"vote_q10_pp":4.435563034703862,"vote_q2_5_pp":3.7333470618606905,"vote_q90_pp":7.979800945569886,"vote_q97_5_pp":9.228903233478654,"zero_seat_probability":0.005611018446109926},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":4.6553497364986365,"contest_party_id":"K26_NATIVE_LIST::RZP_AND_ZEHUT","display_name_en":"Religious Zionism–Zehut","display_name_he":"הציונות הדתית וזהות","expected_seats":5.640463303172309,"forecast_date":"2026-10-07","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":6,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.8910428212653114,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.10895717873468855,"p_represented":0.8910428212653114,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_religious_zionism_zehut","raw_b5_point_pp":4.741712274969288,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":8.0,"seat_range_display":"4–9","seat_range_high":9,"seat_range_low":4,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":4.756849911984718,"vote_q10_pp":3.183837015230362,"vote_q2_5_pp":2.4436891851751046,"vote_q90_pp":6.509499582774343,"vote_q97_5_pp":7.742079942960883,"zero_seat_probability":0.10895717873468855},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":3.1153946705796183,"contest_party_id":"WINTER_NEW_PARTY","display_name_en":"Amcha Yisrael","display_name_he":"עמך ישראל","expected_seats":1.8752703953539802,"forecast_date":"2026-10-07","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":0,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.3485362216988275,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.6514637783011725,"p_represented":0.3485362216988274,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_amcha_yisrael","raw_b5_point_pp":3.1731891236965937,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":6.0,"seat_range_display":"0, 4–7","seat_range_high":7,"seat_range_low":4,"seat_range_mode":"ZERO_SEPARATED_CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":2.955180165412634,"vote_q10_pp":1.5113068827997953,"vote_q2_5_pp":1.092228755845551,"vote_q90_pp":4.683614666192272,"vote_q97_5_pp":5.948958173690611,"zero_seat_probability":0.6514637783011725},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":0.5926263449995827,"contest_party_id":"K26_NATIVE_LIST::HAREDI_PUBLIC","display_name_en":"Haredi Public","display_name_he":"הציבור החרדי","expected_seats":0.019938360151239044,"forecast_date":"2026-10-07","group_id":"UNCOMMITTED","headline_seats":0,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.0032959556457016204,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.9967040443542984,"p_represented":0.0032959556457016074,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_haredi_public","raw_b5_point_pp":0.6036203021490281,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":0.0,"seat_range_display":"0","seat_range_high":null,"seat_range_low":null,"seat_range_mode":"ZERO_ONLY_RARE_REPRESENTATION","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":0.5454325732105855,"vote_q10_pp":0.1007146686734125,"vote_q2_5_pp":0.05293156709630062,"vote_q90_pp":1.2257325966826198,"vote_q97_5_pp":2.1863542057426426,"zero_seat_probability":0.9967040443542984},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":9.496255939717082,"contest_party_id":"K26_NATIVE_LIST::BEYAHAD_BENNETT","display_name_en":"Beyachad","display_name_he":"ביחד","expected_seats":12.50544368416108,"forecast_date":"2026-10-07","group_id":"CHANGE_CORE","headline_seats":13,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":1.0,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.0,"p_represented":1.0,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_beyachad","raw_b5_point_pp":9.672423320331067,"seat_q10":10.0,"seat_q90":16.0,"seat_range_display":"10–16","seat_range_high":16,"seat_range_low":10,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":9.505368840253993,"vote_q10_pp":7.352348025643295,"vote_q2_5_pp":6.452191297734216,"vote_q90_pp":11.76426149558985,"vote_q97_5_pp":13.226602017722591,"zero_seat_probability":0.0},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":17.11954298996529,"contest_party_id":"YASHAR_GADI_EISENKOT","display_name_en":"Yashar!","display_name_he":"ישר!","expected_seats":23.099969130239273,"forecast_date":"2026-10-07","group_id":"CHANGE_CORE","headline_seats":23,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":1.0,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.0,"p_represented":1.0,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_yashar","raw_b5_point_pp":17.437131844456562,"seat_q10":20.0,"seat_q90":26.0,"seat_range_display":"20–26","seat_range_high":26,"seat_range_low":20,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":17.255912229868507,"vote_q10_pp":15.055102934612277,"vote_q2_5_pp":13.967997398109508,"vote_q90_pp":19.574789305505668,"vote_q97_5_pp":21.00073888301717,"zero_seat_probability":0.0},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":6.636587551468527,"contest_party_id":"YISRAEL_BEITEINU","display_name_en":"Yisrael Beiteinu","display_name_he":"ישראל ביתנו","expected_seats":8.34086697286855,"forecast_date":"2026-10-07","group_id":"CHANGE_CORE","headline_seats":8,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.9983907276086363,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.0016092723913636406,"p_represented":0.9983907276086363,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_yisrael_beiteinu","raw_b5_point_pp":6.759704520153811,"seat_q10":6.0,"seat_q90":11.0,"seat_range_display":"6–11","seat_range_high":11,"seat_range_low":6,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":6.469324505573585,"vote_q10_pp":4.756014112464363,"vote_q2_5_pp":4.046992936721113,"vote_q90_pp":8.307900247070355,"vote_q97_5_pp":9.642842323351955,"zero_seat_probability":0.0016092723913636406},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":7.5500847560611195,"contest_party_id":"THE_DEMOCRATS","display_name_en":"The Democrats","display_name_he":"הדמוקרטים","expected_seats":9.735835803172641,"forecast_date":"2026-10-07","group_id":"CHANGE_CORE","headline_seats":10,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.9999745877019867,"p_below_legal_threshold":2.5412298013356885e-05,"p_represented":0.9999745877019866,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_democrats","raw_b5_point_pp":7.690148236166573,"seat_q10":7.0,"seat_q90":12.0,"seat_range_display":"7–12","seat_range_high":12,"seat_range_low":7,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":7.481232650553944,"vote_q10_pp":5.683444261069637,"vote_q2_5_pp":4.898994505641871,"vote_q90_pp":9.420197412417929,"vote_q97_5_pp":10.782057409067072,"zero_seat_probability":2.5412298013356885e-05},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":3.9503053370669323,"contest_party_id":"RAAM","display_name_en":"Raam","display_name_he":"רע״ם","expected_seats":3.866071529297335,"forecast_date":"2026-10-07","group_id":"ARAB_LISTS","headline_seats":5,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.6738736596273094,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.32612634037269056,"p_represented":0.6738736596273094,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_raam","raw_b5_point_pp":4.023588423398455,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":7.0,"seat_range_display":"0, 4–8","seat_range_high":8,"seat_range_low":4,"seat_range_mode":"ZERO_SEPARATED_CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":3.9198059514524344,"vote_q10_pp":2.2801502277956014,"vote_q2_5_pp":1.7174501072150286,"vote_q90_pp":5.655269596625775,"vote_q97_5_pp":6.9723096809766485,"zero_seat_probability":0.32612634037269056},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":5.64224365367504,"contest_party_id":"HADASH_TAAL_BALAD","display_name_en":"Joint List","display_name_he":"הרשימה המשותפת","expected_seats":7.218988033573186,"forecast_date":"2026-10-07","group_id":"ARAB_LISTS","headline_seats":7,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.9847695648435965,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.01523043515640359,"p_represented":0.9847695648435963,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_joint_list","raw_b5_point_pp":5.746914304041212,"seat_q10":5.0,"seat_q90":10.0,"seat_range_display":"5–10","seat_range_high":10,"seat_range_low":5,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":5.684469872992328,"vote_q10_pp":4.065014773648807,"vote_q2_5_pp":3.4256738686482784,"vote_q90_pp":7.454166443291716,"vote_q97_5_pp":8.662885616938757,"zero_seat_probability":0.01523043515640359},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":1.2207565749966993,"contest_party_id":"BLUE_WHITE","display_name_en":"Blue and White","display_name_he":"כחול לבן","expected_seats":0.07278723455659983,"forecast_date":"2026-10-07","group_id":"UNCOMMITTED","headline_seats":0,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.012642039114334258,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.9873579608856657,"p_represented":0.012642039114334288,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_blue_white","raw_b5_point_pp":1.2434031306023683,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":0.0,"seat_range_display":"0","seat_range_high":null,"seat_range_low":null,"seat_range_mode":"ZERO_ONLY_RARE_REPRESENTATION","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":1.1034599582180644,"vote_q10_pp":0.34899710308937787,"vote_q2_5_pp":0.20278765174518318,"vote_q90_pp":2.1447557120979193,"vote_q97_5_pp":3.0011356801553095,"zero_seat_probability":0.9873579608856657},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":2.562047576916164,"contest_party_id":"K26_NATIVE_LIST::RESERVISTS_AND_NEW_ECONOMIC_PARTY","display_name_en":"Reservists–Economic","display_name_he":"המילואימניקים והכלכלית","expected_seats":1.0332581502850686,"forecast_date":"2026-10-07","group_id":"UNCOMMITTED","headline_seats":0,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.19186890351828434,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.8081310964817157,"p_represented":0.19186890351828423,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_reservists_economic","raw_b5_point_pp":2.609576751940397,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":5.0,"seat_range_display":"0, 4–7","seat_range_high":7,"seat_range_low":4,"seat_range_mode":"ZERO_SEPARATED_CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":2.349449264611553,"vote_q10_pp":1.0287883134613864,"vote_q2_5_pp":0.671642733090735,"vote_q90_pp":4.003224018425791,"vote_q97_5_pp":5.4695556345642355,"zero_seat_probability":0.8081310964817157},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":17.325179638512996,"contest_party_id":"LIKUD","display_name_en":"Likud","display_name_he":"הליכוד","expected_seats":23.2908,"forecast_date":"2026-10-08","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":24,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":1.0,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.0,"p_represented":1.0,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_likud","raw_b5_point_pp":17.646583309071026,"seat_q10":20.0,"seat_q90":27.0,"seat_range_display":"20–27","seat_range_high":27,"seat_range_low":20,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":17.32523957199548,"vote_q10_pp":14.782286570183423,"vote_q2_5_pp":13.617826871528177,"vote_q90_pp":19.98019700491752,"vote_q97_5_pp":21.547505619571265,"zero_seat_probability":0.0},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":5.674072203137139,"contest_party_id":"SHAS","display_name_en":"Shas","display_name_he":"ש״ס","expected_seats":7.1709,"forecast_date":"2026-10-08","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":7,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.9685,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.0315,"p_represented":0.9685,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_shas","raw_b5_point_pp":5.779333312756207,"seat_q10":5.0,"seat_q90":10.0,"seat_range_display":"5–10","seat_range_high":10,"seat_range_low":5,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":5.6742197065705975,"vote_q10_pp":3.825644627242292,"vote_q2_5_pp":3.155632517046202,"vote_q90_pp":7.805640047755511,"vote_q97_5_pp":9.388104032642259,"zero_seat_probability":0.0315},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":5.9112369834026435,"contest_party_id":"UNITED_TORAH_JUDAISM","display_name_en":"United Torah Judaism","display_name_he":"יהדות התורה","expected_seats":7.55455,"forecast_date":"2026-10-08","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":8,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.98335,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.01665,"p_represented":0.98335,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_utj","raw_b5_point_pp":6.020897795217872,"seat_q10":5.0,"seat_q90":10.0,"seat_range_display":"5–11","seat_range_high":11,"seat_range_low":5,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":5.911310546591844,"vote_q10_pp":4.094661287789294,"vote_q2_5_pp":3.4176634890523943,"vote_q90_pp":7.969187903037993,"vote_q97_5_pp":9.541559706506648,"zero_seat_probability":0.01665},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":6.148316043002528,"contest_party_id":"OTZMA_YEHUDIT","display_name_en":"Otzma Yehudit","display_name_he":"עוצמה יהודית","expected_seats":7.89005,"forecast_date":"2026-10-08","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":8,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.9857,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.0143,"p_represented":0.9857,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_otzma","raw_b5_point_pp":6.262374966788755,"seat_q10":5.0,"seat_q90":11.0,"seat_range_display":"5–11","seat_range_high":11,"seat_range_low":5,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":6.1483603230391655,"vote_q10_pp":4.154422655975216,"vote_q2_5_pp":3.4481049268272925,"vote_q90_pp":8.382411005472738,"vote_q97_5_pp":10.08076839248012,"zero_seat_probability":0.0143},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":4.6553497364986365,"contest_party_id":"K26_NATIVE_LIST::RZP_AND_ZEHUT","display_name_en":"Religious Zionism–Zehut","display_name_he":"הציונות הדתית וזהות","expected_seats":5.26815,"forecast_date":"2026-10-08","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":6,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.81705,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.18295,"p_represented":0.81705,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_religious_zionism_zehut","raw_b5_point_pp":4.741712274969288,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":9.0,"seat_range_display":"4–9","seat_range_high":9,"seat_range_low":4,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":4.655367297285749,"vote_q10_pp":2.8492529499014156,"vote_q2_5_pp":2.2803107961359146,"vote_q90_pp":6.761763019814382,"vote_q97_5_pp":8.402187937550154,"zero_seat_probability":0.18295},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":3.1153946705796183,"contest_party_id":"WINTER_NEW_PARTY","display_name_en":"Amcha Yisrael","display_name_he":"עמך ישראל","expected_seats":2.169,"forecast_date":"2026-10-08","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":0,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.37549999999999994,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.6245,"p_represented":0.3755,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_amcha_yisrael","raw_b5_point_pp":3.1731891236965937,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":6.0,"seat_range_display":"0, 4–8","seat_range_high":8,"seat_range_low":4,"seat_range_mode":"ZERO_SEPARATED_CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":3.1152417202629548,"vote_q10_pp":1.5280521374644735,"vote_q2_5_pp":1.1027544341678517,"vote_q90_pp":5.084017000862699,"vote_q97_5_pp":6.977953954293614,"zero_seat_probability":0.6245},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":0.5926263449995827,"contest_party_id":"K26_NATIVE_LIST::HAREDI_PUBLIC","display_name_en":"Haredi Public","display_name_he":"הציבור החרדי","expected_seats":0.07505,"forecast_date":"2026-10-08","group_id":"UNCOMMITTED","headline_seats":0,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.012299999999999978,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.9877,"p_represented":0.0123,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_haredi_public","raw_b5_point_pp":0.6036203021490281,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":0.0,"seat_range_display":"0","seat_range_high":null,"seat_range_low":null,"seat_range_mode":"ZERO_ONLY_RARE_REPRESENTATION","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":0.5925367320819728,"vote_q10_pp":0.10292946486914563,"vote_q2_5_pp":0.05485984716506335,"vote_q90_pp":1.2857475033839296,"vote_q97_5_pp":2.456693474411188,"zero_seat_probability":0.9877},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":9.496255939717082,"contest_party_id":"K26_NATIVE_LIST::BEYAHAD_BENNETT","display_name_en":"Beyachad","display_name_he":"ביחד","expected_seats":12.53655,"forecast_date":"2026-10-08","group_id":"CHANGE_CORE","headline_seats":13,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":1.0,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.0,"p_represented":1.0,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_beyachad","raw_b5_point_pp":9.672423320331067,"seat_q10":9.0,"seat_q90":16.0,"seat_range_display":"9–16","seat_range_high":16,"seat_range_low":9,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":9.496248472115871,"vote_q10_pp":7.22161957565842,"vote_q2_5_pp":6.289148146170655,"vote_q90_pp":12.004644727979779,"vote_q97_5_pp":13.690257872579721,"zero_seat_probability":0.0},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":17.11954298996529,"contest_party_id":"YASHAR_GADI_EISENKOT","display_name_en":"Yashar!","display_name_he":"ישר!","expected_seats":23.0071,"forecast_date":"2026-10-08","group_id":"CHANGE_CORE","headline_seats":23,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":1.0,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.0,"p_represented":1.0,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_yashar","raw_b5_point_pp":17.437131844456562,"seat_q10":19.0,"seat_q90":27.0,"seat_range_display":"19–27","seat_range_high":27,"seat_range_low":19,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":17.11957651841055,"vote_q10_pp":14.533350176106008,"vote_q2_5_pp":13.363810843222192,"vote_q90_pp":19.845253528137334,"vote_q97_5_pp":21.48432345790759,"zero_seat_probability":0.0},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":6.636587551468527,"contest_party_id":"YISRAEL_BEITEINU","display_name_en":"Yisrael Beiteinu","display_name_he":"ישראל ביתנו","expected_seats":8.5966,"forecast_date":"2026-10-08","group_id":"CHANGE_CORE","headline_seats":9,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.9949,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.0051,"p_represented":0.9949,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_yisrael_beiteinu","raw_b5_point_pp":6.759704520153811,"seat_q10":6.0,"seat_q90":12.0,"seat_range_display":"6–12","seat_range_high":12,"seat_range_low":6,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":6.636541766234694,"vote_q10_pp":4.593581496842018,"vote_q2_5_pp":3.852086240268782,"vote_q90_pp":8.932463000177439,"vote_q97_5_pp":10.66300741020647,"zero_seat_probability":0.0051},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":7.5500847560611195,"contest_party_id":"THE_DEMOCRATS","display_name_en":"The Democrats","display_name_he":"הדמוקרטים","expected_seats":9.8638,"forecast_date":"2026-10-08","group_id":"CHANGE_CORE","headline_seats":10,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.99935,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.00065,"p_represented":0.99935,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_democrats","raw_b5_point_pp":7.690148236166573,"seat_q10":7.0,"seat_q90":13.0,"seat_range_display":"7–13","seat_range_high":13,"seat_range_low":7,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":7.550077220853473,"vote_q10_pp":5.377841506564467,"vote_q2_5_pp":4.573258613329276,"vote_q90_pp":9.977609977386802,"vote_q97_5_pp":11.640834652356483,"zero_seat_probability":0.00065},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":3.9503053370669323,"contest_party_id":"RAAM","display_name_en":"Raam","display_name_he":"רע״ם","expected_seats":3.76445,"forecast_date":"2026-10-08","group_id":"ARAB_LISTS","headline_seats":5,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.6251,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.3749,"p_represented":0.6251,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_raam","raw_b5_point_pp":4.023588423398455,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":8.0,"seat_range_display":"0, 4–9","seat_range_high":9,"seat_range_low":4,"seat_range_mode":"ZERO_SEPARATED_CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":3.9503901243792847,"vote_q10_pp":2.23908309277378,"vote_q2_5_pp":1.70449115644248,"vote_q90_pp":6.0203831136191335,"vote_q97_5_pp":7.76571622571624,"zero_seat_probability":0.3749},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":5.64224365367504,"contest_party_id":"HADASH_TAAL_BALAD","display_name_en":"Joint List","display_name_he":"הרשימה המשותפת","expected_seats":7.1131,"forecast_date":"2026-10-08","group_id":"ARAB_LISTS","headline_seats":7,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.9634,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.0366,"p_represented":0.9634,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_joint_list","raw_b5_point_pp":5.746914304041212,"seat_q10":5.0,"seat_q90":10.0,"seat_range_display":"5–10","seat_range_high":10,"seat_range_low":5,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":5.642193820140245,"vote_q10_pp":3.763955205321732,"vote_q2_5_pp":3.088137050270676,"vote_q90_pp":7.757101304748649,"vote_q97_5_pp":9.274990050515955,"zero_seat_probability":0.0366},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":1.2207565749966993,"contest_party_id":"BLUE_WHITE","display_name_en":"Blue and White","display_name_he":"כחול לבן","expected_seats":0.26205,"forecast_date":"2026-10-08","group_id":"UNCOMMITTED","headline_seats":0,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.04574999999999996,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.95425,"p_represented":0.04575,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_blue_white","raw_b5_point_pp":1.2434031306023683,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":0.0,"seat_range_display":"0","seat_range_high":null,"seat_range_low":null,"seat_range_mode":"ZERO_ONLY_RARE_REPRESENTATION","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":1.220809563861075,"vote_q10_pp":0.34952517636576697,"vote_q2_5_pp":0.20587424131513452,"vote_q90_pp":2.4317789349461805,"vote_q97_5_pp":3.98922932043495,"zero_seat_probability":0.95425},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":2.562047576916164,"contest_party_id":"K26_NATIVE_LIST::RESERVISTS_AND_NEW_ECONOMIC_PARTY","display_name_en":"Reservists–Economic","display_name_he":"המילואימניקים והכלכלית","expected_seats":1.43785,"forecast_date":"2026-10-08","group_id":"UNCOMMITTED","headline_seats":0,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.24509999999999998,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.7549,"p_represented":0.2451,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_reservists_economic","raw_b5_point_pp":2.609576751940397,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":6.0,"seat_range_display":"0, 4–8","seat_range_high":8,"seat_range_low":4,"seat_range_mode":"ZERO_SEPARATED_CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":2.5618866161770444,"vote_q10_pp":1.0442716372550105,"vote_q2_5_pp":0.7005195695187871,"vote_q90_pp":4.551164748168519,"vote_q97_5_pp":6.559153677812684,"zero_seat_probability":0.7549},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":17.325179638512996,"contest_party_id":"LIKUD","display_name_en":"Likud","display_name_he":"הליכוד","expected_seats":23.671100823630617,"forecast_date":"2026-10-08","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":24,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":1.0,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.0,"p_represented":0.9999999999999999,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_likud","raw_b5_point_pp":17.646583309071026,"seat_q10":20.0,"seat_q90":27.0,"seat_range_display":"20–27","seat_range_high":27,"seat_range_low":20,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":17.65539087489517,"vote_q10_pp":15.152495227127147,"vote_q2_5_pp":13.95571292356825,"vote_q90_pp":20.243954450303892,"vote_q97_5_pp":21.755988001760766,"zero_seat_probability":0.0},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":5.674072203137139,"contest_party_id":"SHAS","display_name_en":"Shas","display_name_he":"ש״ס","expected_seats":7.547273628697305,"forecast_date":"2026-10-08","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":8,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.9892445719926566,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.01075542800734337,"p_represented":0.9892445719926566,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_shas","raw_b5_point_pp":5.779333312756207,"seat_q10":5.0,"seat_q90":10.0,"seat_range_display":"5–10","seat_range_high":10,"seat_range_low":5,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":5.905267212470013,"vote_q10_pp":4.185182952251777,"vote_q2_5_pp":3.5472975228056467,"vote_q90_pp":7.816622558671324,"vote_q97_5_pp":9.1308538618235,"zero_seat_probability":0.01075542800734337},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":5.9112369834026435,"contest_party_id":"UNITED_TORAH_JUDAISM","display_name_en":"United Torah Judaism","display_name_he":"יהדות התורה","expected_seats":7.554172876430395,"forecast_date":"2026-10-08","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":8,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.9937091798524448,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.006290820147555264,"p_represented":0.9937091798524447,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_utj","raw_b5_point_pp":6.020897795217872,"seat_q10":5.0,"seat_q90":10.0,"seat_range_display":"5–10","seat_range_high":10,"seat_range_low":5,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":5.9004943393008915,"vote_q10_pp":4.3110737509310715,"vote_q2_5_pp":3.673019566369047,"vote_q90_pp":7.629521974209683,"vote_q97_5_pp":8.788432792064734,"zero_seat_probability":0.006290820147555264},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":6.148316043002528,"contest_party_id":"OTZMA_YEHUDIT","display_name_en":"Otzma Yehudit","display_name_he":"עוצמה יהודית","expected_seats":7.877506849250027,"forecast_date":"2026-10-08","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":8,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.9948317869098557,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.005168213090144261,"p_represented":0.9948317869098557,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_otzma","raw_b5_point_pp":6.262374966788755,"seat_q10":6.0,"seat_q90":10.0,"seat_range_display":"6–10","seat_range_high":10,"seat_range_low":6,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":6.134032356619571,"vote_q10_pp":4.420134641512018,"vote_q2_5_pp":3.7507793456424503,"vote_q90_pp":7.981754231326154,"vote_q97_5_pp":9.252941677097436,"zero_seat_probability":0.005168213090144261},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":4.6553497364986365,"contest_party_id":"K26_NATIVE_LIST::RZP_AND_ZEHUT","display_name_en":"Religious Zionism–Zehut","display_name_he":"הציונות הדתית וזהות","expected_seats":5.591825405769866,"forecast_date":"2026-10-08","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":6,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.884013347670926,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.11598665232907396,"p_represented":0.884013347670926,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_religious_zionism_zehut","raw_b5_point_pp":4.741712274969288,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":8.0,"seat_range_display":"4–9","seat_range_high":9,"seat_range_low":4,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":4.740234874339597,"vote_q10_pp":3.1411686378293897,"vote_q2_5_pp":2.445818395393433,"vote_q90_pp":6.519496013458325,"vote_q97_5_pp":7.705367861112268,"zero_seat_probability":0.11598665232907396},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":3.1153946705796183,"contest_party_id":"WINTER_NEW_PARTY","display_name_en":"Amcha Yisrael","display_name_he":"עמך ישראל","expected_seats":1.8874524341689454,"forecast_date":"2026-10-08","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":0,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.350502648888394,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.649497351111606,"p_represented":0.350502648888394,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_amcha_yisrael","raw_b5_point_pp":3.1731891236965937,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":6.0,"seat_range_display":"0, 4–7","seat_range_high":7,"seat_range_low":4,"seat_range_mode":"ZERO_SEPARATED_CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":2.965150932590676,"vote_q10_pp":1.520276588913785,"vote_q2_5_pp":1.1003504611993271,"vote_q90_pp":4.685438070032554,"vote_q97_5_pp":5.959687211325327,"zero_seat_probability":0.649497351111606},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":0.5926263449995827,"contest_party_id":"K26_NATIVE_LIST::HAREDI_PUBLIC","display_name_en":"Haredi Public","display_name_he":"הציבור החרדי","expected_seats":0.01683543704738024,"forecast_date":"2026-10-08","group_id":"UNCOMMITTED","headline_seats":0,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.00282010789938536,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.9971798921006146,"p_represented":0.0028201078993854408,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_haredi_public","raw_b5_point_pp":0.6036203021490281,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":0.0,"seat_range_display":"0","seat_range_high":null,"seat_range_low":null,"seat_range_mode":"ZERO_ONLY_RARE_REPRESENTATION","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":0.5424264592787109,"vote_q10_pp":0.10255226310056334,"vote_q2_5_pp":0.0535351471650302,"vote_q90_pp":1.2007460976889037,"vote_q97_5_pp":2.10345318813834,"zero_seat_probability":0.9971798921006146},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":9.496255939717082,"contest_party_id":"K26_NATIVE_LIST::BEYAHAD_BENNETT","display_name_en":"Beyachad","display_name_he":"ביחד","expected_seats":12.510076059168707,"forecast_date":"2026-10-08","group_id":"CHANGE_CORE","headline_seats":13,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":1.0,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.0,"p_represented":0.9999999999999999,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_beyachad","raw_b5_point_pp":9.672423320331067,"seat_q10":10.0,"seat_q90":16.0,"seat_range_display":"10–16","seat_range_high":16,"seat_range_low":10,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":9.509170141757874,"vote_q10_pp":7.382900738869445,"vote_q2_5_pp":6.41713286368712,"vote_q90_pp":11.797180963948696,"vote_q97_5_pp":13.266888205443252,"zero_seat_probability":0.0},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":17.11954298996529,"contest_party_id":"YASHAR_GADI_EISENKOT","display_name_en":"Yashar!","display_name_he":"ישר!","expected_seats":23.088958761273553,"forecast_date":"2026-10-08","group_id":"CHANGE_CORE","headline_seats":23,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":1.0,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.0,"p_represented":0.9999999999999999,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_yashar","raw_b5_point_pp":17.437131844456562,"seat_q10":20.0,"seat_q90":26.0,"seat_range_display":"20–26","seat_range_high":26,"seat_range_low":20,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":17.237535866183038,"vote_q10_pp":15.014313172848798,"vote_q2_5_pp":13.975899682328036,"vote_q90_pp":19.53906203930331,"vote_q97_5_pp":20.946375439061242,"zero_seat_probability":0.0},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":6.636587551468527,"contest_party_id":"YISRAEL_BEITEINU","display_name_en":"Yisrael Beiteinu","display_name_he":"ישראל ביתנו","expected_seats":8.341020927056173,"forecast_date":"2026-10-08","group_id":"CHANGE_CORE","headline_seats":8,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.9982528327393453,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.0017471672606546986,"p_represented":0.9982528327393454,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_yisrael_beiteinu","raw_b5_point_pp":6.759704520153811,"seat_q10":6.0,"seat_q90":11.0,"seat_range_display":"6–11","seat_range_high":11,"seat_range_low":6,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":6.463182884614266,"vote_q10_pp":4.732402284809602,"vote_q2_5_pp":4.051227853001897,"vote_q90_pp":8.330830186203013,"vote_q97_5_pp":9.65817395281939,"zero_seat_probability":0.0017471672606546986},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":7.5500847560611195,"contest_party_id":"THE_DEMOCRATS","display_name_en":"The Democrats","display_name_he":"הדמוקרטים","expected_seats":9.727157212976937,"forecast_date":"2026-10-08","group_id":"CHANGE_CORE","headline_seats":10,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.9998897695879393,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.0001102304120607293,"p_represented":0.9998897695879393,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_democrats","raw_b5_point_pp":7.690148236166573,"seat_q10":7.0,"seat_q90":12.0,"seat_range_display":"7–12","seat_range_high":12,"seat_range_low":7,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":7.475464962628403,"vote_q10_pp":5.645488497974224,"vote_q2_5_pp":4.889407159595919,"vote_q90_pp":9.416654891202512,"vote_q97_5_pp":10.787839472190003,"zero_seat_probability":0.0001102304120607293},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":3.9503053370669323,"contest_party_id":"RAAM","display_name_en":"Raam","display_name_he":"רע״ם","expected_seats":3.857866843325399,"forecast_date":"2026-10-08","group_id":"ARAB_LISTS","headline_seats":5,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.6724568671213498,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.3275431328786502,"p_represented":0.6724568671213498,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_raam","raw_b5_point_pp":4.023588423398455,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":7.0,"seat_range_display":"0, 4–8","seat_range_high":8,"seat_range_low":4,"seat_range_mode":"ZERO_SEPARATED_CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":3.9280678951267856,"vote_q10_pp":2.329440421377346,"vote_q2_5_pp":1.7529990320547333,"vote_q90_pp":5.650789510847361,"vote_q97_5_pp":6.944696655635,"zero_seat_probability":0.3275431328786502},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":5.64224365367504,"contest_party_id":"HADASH_TAAL_BALAD","display_name_en":"Joint List","display_name_he":"הרשימה המשותפת","expected_seats":7.213378881802808,"forecast_date":"2026-10-08","group_id":"ARAB_LISTS","headline_seats":7,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.9842678617422278,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.015732138257772185,"p_represented":0.9842678617422278,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_joint_list","raw_b5_point_pp":5.746914304041212,"seat_q10":5.0,"seat_q90":10.0,"seat_range_display":"5–10","seat_range_high":10,"seat_range_low":5,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":5.677968697063849,"vote_q10_pp":4.034600993261092,"vote_q2_5_pp":3.404239995413392,"vote_q90_pp":7.444771689703886,"vote_q97_5_pp":8.594876715784418,"zero_seat_probability":0.015732138257772185},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":1.2207565749966993,"contest_party_id":"BLUE_WHITE","display_name_en":"Blue and White","display_name_he":"כחול לבן","expected_seats":0.07185719651093905,"forecast_date":"2026-10-08","group_id":"UNCOMMITTED","headline_seats":0,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.012560751427173278,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.9874392485728267,"p_represented":0.012560751427173318,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_blue_white","raw_b5_point_pp":1.2434031306023683,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":0.0,"seat_range_display":"0","seat_range_high":null,"seat_range_low":null,"seat_range_mode":"ZERO_ONLY_RARE_REPRESENTATION","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":1.1083885422154356,"vote_q10_pp":0.343692454143485,"vote_q2_5_pp":0.20364373990059192,"vote_q90_pp":2.168676142881488,"vote_q97_5_pp":3.042861046600162,"zero_seat_probability":0.9874392485728267},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":2.562047576916164,"contest_party_id":"K26_NATIVE_LIST::RESERVISTS_AND_NEW_ECONOMIC_PARTY","display_name_en":"Reservists–Economic","display_name_he":"המילואימניקים והכלכלית","expected_seats":1.0435166628909527,"forecast_date":"2026-10-08","group_id":"UNCOMMITTED","headline_seats":0,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.19481621021192486,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.8051837897880751,"p_represented":0.19481621021192486,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_reservists_economic","raw_b5_point_pp":2.609576751940397,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":5.0,"seat_range_display":"0, 4–7","seat_range_high":7,"seat_range_low":4,"seat_range_mode":"ZERO_SEPARATED_CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":2.357223960915715,"vote_q10_pp":1.0238658395785236,"vote_q2_5_pp":0.6873390530194722,"vote_q90_pp":4.022004812830044,"vote_q97_5_pp":5.333816966969051,"zero_seat_probability":0.8051837897880751},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":17.325179638512996,"contest_party_id":"LIKUD","display_name_en":"Likud","display_name_he":"הליכוד","expected_seats":23.28805,"forecast_date":"2026-10-09","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":24,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":1.0,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.0,"p_represented":1.0,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_likud","raw_b5_point_pp":17.646583309071026,"seat_q10":20.0,"seat_q90":27.0,"seat_range_display":"20–27","seat_range_high":27,"seat_range_low":20,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":17.325126936949232,"vote_q10_pp":14.801521898818306,"vote_q2_5_pp":13.619675389674285,"vote_q90_pp":19.961518046278773,"vote_q97_5_pp":21.520509106218668,"zero_seat_probability":0.0},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":5.674072203137139,"contest_party_id":"SHAS","display_name_en":"Shas","display_name_he":"ש״ס","expected_seats":7.1694,"forecast_date":"2026-10-09","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":7,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.9665,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.0335,"p_represented":0.9665,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_shas","raw_b5_point_pp":5.779333312756207,"seat_q10":5.0,"seat_q90":10.0,"seat_range_display":"5–10","seat_range_high":10,"seat_range_low":5,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":5.6739837716609856,"vote_q10_pp":3.808356070269892,"vote_q2_5_pp":3.1367457958557243,"vote_q90_pp":7.801011328077113,"vote_q97_5_pp":9.402340998762037,"zero_seat_probability":0.0335},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":5.9112369834026435,"contest_party_id":"UNITED_TORAH_JUDAISM","display_name_en":"United Torah Judaism","display_name_he":"יהדות התורה","expected_seats":7.54725,"forecast_date":"2026-10-09","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":8,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.98145,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.01855,"p_represented":0.98145,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_utj","raw_b5_point_pp":6.020897795217872,"seat_q10":5.0,"seat_q90":11.0,"seat_range_display":"5–11","seat_range_high":11,"seat_range_low":5,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":5.9112233645773875,"vote_q10_pp":4.04522959307169,"vote_q2_5_pp":3.358418615086732,"vote_q90_pp":8.028015495784603,"vote_q97_5_pp":9.531426666822798,"zero_seat_probability":0.01855},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":6.148316043002528,"contest_party_id":"OTZMA_YEHUDIT","display_name_en":"Otzma Yehudit","display_name_he":"עוצמה יהודית","expected_seats":7.877,"forecast_date":"2026-10-09","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":8,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.98205,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.01795,"p_represented":0.98205,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_otzma","raw_b5_point_pp":6.262374966788755,"seat_q10":5.0,"seat_q90":11.0,"seat_range_display":"5–11","seat_range_high":11,"seat_range_low":5,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":6.1483648037994465,"vote_q10_pp":4.1246476003702055,"vote_q2_5_pp":3.3919852954355796,"vote_q90_pp":8.398291020730069,"vote_q97_5_pp":10.116060356648246,"zero_seat_probability":0.01795},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":4.6553497364986365,"contest_party_id":"K26_NATIVE_LIST::RZP_AND_ZEHUT","display_name_en":"Religious Zionism–Zehut","display_name_he":"הציונות הדתית וזהות","expected_seats":5.2572,"forecast_date":"2026-10-09","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":6,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.81305,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.18695,"p_represented":0.81305,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_religious_zionism_zehut","raw_b5_point_pp":4.741712274969288,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":9.0,"seat_range_display":"4–9","seat_range_high":9,"seat_range_low":4,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":4.655459406735424,"vote_q10_pp":2.8385554499668433,"vote_q2_5_pp":2.244910073971932,"vote_q90_pp":6.757442614088468,"vote_q97_5_pp":8.453467352243042,"zero_seat_probability":0.18695},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":3.1153946705796183,"contest_party_id":"WINTER_NEW_PARTY","display_name_en":"Amcha Yisrael","display_name_he":"עמך ישראל","expected_seats":2.1888,"forecast_date":"2026-10-09","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":0,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.37855000000000005,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.62145,"p_represented":0.37855,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_amcha_yisrael","raw_b5_point_pp":3.1731891236965937,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":6.0,"seat_range_display":"0, 4–8","seat_range_high":8,"seat_range_low":4,"seat_range_mode":"ZERO_SEPARATED_CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":3.1153743010046533,"vote_q10_pp":1.512631649228871,"vote_q2_5_pp":1.0927872012984339,"vote_q90_pp":5.132565259263785,"vote_q97_5_pp":6.950395625979791,"zero_seat_probability":0.62145},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":0.5926263449995827,"contest_party_id":"K26_NATIVE_LIST::HAREDI_PUBLIC","display_name_en":"Haredi Public","display_name_he":"הציבור החרדי","expected_seats":0.07065,"forecast_date":"2026-10-09","group_id":"UNCOMMITTED","headline_seats":0,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.011349999999999971,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.98865,"p_represented":0.01135,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_haredi_public","raw_b5_point_pp":0.6036203021490281,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":0.0,"seat_range_display":"0","seat_range_high":null,"seat_range_low":null,"seat_range_mode":"ZERO_ONLY_RARE_REPRESENTATION","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":0.5925988362865705,"vote_q10_pp":0.10326318083560704,"vote_q2_5_pp":0.050860495301722285,"vote_q90_pp":1.297111137839473,"vote_q97_5_pp":2.466501745063079,"zero_seat_probability":0.98865},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":9.496255939717082,"contest_party_id":"K26_NATIVE_LIST::BEYAHAD_BENNETT","display_name_en":"Beyachad","display_name_he":"ביחד","expected_seats":12.545,"forecast_date":"2026-10-09","group_id":"CHANGE_CORE","headline_seats":13,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":1.0,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.0,"p_represented":1.0,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_beyachad","raw_b5_point_pp":9.672423320331067,"seat_q10":9.0,"seat_q90":16.0,"seat_range_display":"9–16","seat_range_high":16,"seat_range_low":9,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":9.496206042772032,"vote_q10_pp":7.188757081575289,"vote_q2_5_pp":6.266229832147591,"vote_q90_pp":12.012472619117961,"vote_q97_5_pp":13.708964232072287,"zero_seat_probability":0.0},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":17.11954298996529,"contest_party_id":"YASHAR_GADI_EISENKOT","display_name_en":"Yashar!","display_name_he":"ישר!","expected_seats":23.0097,"forecast_date":"2026-10-09","group_id":"CHANGE_CORE","headline_seats":23,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":1.0,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.0,"p_represented":1.0,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_yashar","raw_b5_point_pp":17.437131844456562,"seat_q10":19.0,"seat_q90":27.0,"seat_range_display":"19–27","seat_range_high":27,"seat_range_low":19,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":17.119577746946167,"vote_q10_pp":14.484693035026044,"vote_q2_5_pp":13.27897640037709,"vote_q90_pp":19.87843203170752,"vote_q97_5_pp":21.522750007150353,"zero_seat_probability":0.0},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":6.636587551468527,"contest_party_id":"YISRAEL_BEITEINU","display_name_en":"Yisrael Beiteinu","display_name_he":"ישראל ביתנו","expected_seats":8.5971,"forecast_date":"2026-10-09","group_id":"CHANGE_CORE","headline_seats":9,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.9954,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.0046,"p_represented":0.9954,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_yisrael_beiteinu","raw_b5_point_pp":6.759704520153811,"seat_q10":6.0,"seat_q90":12.0,"seat_range_display":"6–12","seat_range_high":12,"seat_range_low":6,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":6.636584821346731,"vote_q10_pp":4.58307798948643,"vote_q2_5_pp":3.83048459089841,"vote_q90_pp":8.921146373305755,"vote_q97_5_pp":10.588915448144654,"zero_seat_probability":0.0046},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":7.5500847560611195,"contest_party_id":"THE_DEMOCRATS","display_name_en":"The Democrats","display_name_he":"הדמוקרטים","expected_seats":9.86805,"forecast_date":"2026-10-09","group_id":"CHANGE_CORE","headline_seats":10,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.99975,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.00025,"p_represented":0.99975,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_democrats","raw_b5_point_pp":7.690148236166573,"seat_q10":7.0,"seat_q90":13.0,"seat_range_display":"7–13","seat_range_high":13,"seat_range_low":7,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":7.550067184945043,"vote_q10_pp":5.406483105260717,"vote_q2_5_pp":4.598727665438423,"vote_q90_pp":9.931733876658894,"vote_q97_5_pp":11.654850710282952,"zero_seat_probability":0.00025},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":3.9503053370669323,"contest_party_id":"RAAM","display_name_en":"Raam","display_name_he":"רע״ם","expected_seats":3.7828,"forecast_date":"2026-10-09","group_id":"ARAB_LISTS","headline_seats":5,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.6274500000000001,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.37255,"p_represented":0.62745,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_raam","raw_b5_point_pp":4.023588423398455,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":8.0,"seat_range_display":"0, 4–9","seat_range_high":9,"seat_range_low":4,"seat_range_mode":"ZERO_SEPARATED_CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":3.950250438083322,"vote_q10_pp":2.2138723828754667,"vote_q2_5_pp":1.6980962809628382,"vote_q90_pp":5.985761533679432,"vote_q97_5_pp":7.755052896930382,"zero_seat_probability":0.37255},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":5.64224365367504,"contest_party_id":"HADASH_TAAL_BALAD","display_name_en":"Joint List","display_name_he":"הרשימה המשותפת","expected_seats":7.10025,"forecast_date":"2026-10-09","group_id":"ARAB_LISTS","headline_seats":7,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.96045,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.03955,"p_represented":0.96045,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_joint_list","raw_b5_point_pp":5.746914304041212,"seat_q10":5.0,"seat_q90":10.0,"seat_range_display":"5–10","seat_range_high":10,"seat_range_low":5,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":5.642413865982828,"vote_q10_pp":3.7434976312950607,"vote_q2_5_pp":3.0644276416384115,"vote_q90_pp":7.810294190235998,"vote_q97_5_pp":9.414434391250841,"zero_seat_probability":0.03955},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":1.2207565749966993,"contest_party_id":"BLUE_WHITE","display_name_en":"Blue and White","display_name_he":"כחול לבן","expected_seats":0.25965,"forecast_date":"2026-10-09","group_id":"UNCOMMITTED","headline_seats":0,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.045849999999999946,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.95415,"p_represented":0.04585,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_blue_white","raw_b5_point_pp":1.2434031306023683,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":0.0,"seat_range_display":"0","seat_range_high":null,"seat_range_low":null,"seat_range_mode":"ZERO_ONLY_RARE_REPRESENTATION","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":1.22064150842077,"vote_q10_pp":0.35168930939499154,"vote_q2_5_pp":0.20440057960185617,"vote_q90_pp":2.41516778800534,"vote_q97_5_pp":3.9166774919097938,"zero_seat_probability":0.95415},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":2.562047576916164,"contest_party_id":"K26_NATIVE_LIST::RESERVISTS_AND_NEW_ECONOMIC_PARTY","display_name_en":"Reservists–Economic","display_name_he":"המילואימניקים והכלכלית","expected_seats":1.4391,"forecast_date":"2026-10-09","group_id":"UNCOMMITTED","headline_seats":0,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.2429,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.7571,"p_represented":0.2429,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_reservists_economic","raw_b5_point_pp":2.609576751940397,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":6.0,"seat_range_display":"0, 4–9","seat_range_high":9,"seat_range_low":4,"seat_range_mode":"ZERO_SEPARATED_CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":2.5621269704894054,"vote_q10_pp":1.0303941481387944,"vote_q2_5_pp":0.6849703652286734,"vote_q90_pp":4.538738370950117,"vote_q97_5_pp":6.682413021153802,"zero_seat_probability":0.7571},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":17.325179638512996,"contest_party_id":"LIKUD","display_name_en":"Likud","display_name_he":"הליכוד","expected_seats":23.672750150798127,"forecast_date":"2026-10-09","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":24,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":1.0,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.0,"p_represented":1.0,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_likud","raw_b5_point_pp":17.646583309071026,"seat_q10":20.0,"seat_q90":27.0,"seat_range_display":"20–27","seat_range_high":27,"seat_range_low":20,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":17.659062886523227,"vote_q10_pp":15.230779224927357,"vote_q2_5_pp":14.009653810046759,"vote_q90_pp":20.218943372730532,"vote_q97_5_pp":21.68652374434094,"zero_seat_probability":0.0},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":5.674072203137139,"contest_party_id":"SHAS","display_name_en":"Shas","display_name_he":"ש״ס","expected_seats":7.587691039904234,"forecast_date":"2026-10-09","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":8,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.988584756889907,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.011415243110093013,"p_represented":0.988584756889907,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_shas","raw_b5_point_pp":5.779333312756207,"seat_q10":5.0,"seat_q90":10.0,"seat_range_display":"5–10","seat_range_high":10,"seat_range_low":5,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":5.933937351643841,"vote_q10_pp":4.181159420756976,"vote_q2_5_pp":3.504312899557753,"vote_q90_pp":7.832726929866643,"vote_q97_5_pp":9.150956429042392,"zero_seat_probability":0.011415243110093013},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":5.9112369834026435,"contest_party_id":"UNITED_TORAH_JUDAISM","display_name_en":"United Torah Judaism","display_name_he":"יהדות התורה","expected_seats":7.5504740851475445,"forecast_date":"2026-10-09","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":8,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.9929716596640131,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.00702834033598689,"p_represented":0.9929716596640131,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_utj","raw_b5_point_pp":6.020897795217872,"seat_q10":5.0,"seat_q90":10.0,"seat_range_display":"5–10","seat_range_high":10,"seat_range_low":5,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":5.899264767411754,"vote_q10_pp":4.282668092602627,"vote_q2_5_pp":3.648284914801441,"vote_q90_pp":7.647566866627067,"vote_q97_5_pp":8.786954587685273,"zero_seat_probability":0.00702834033598689},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":6.148316043002528,"contest_party_id":"OTZMA_YEHUDIT","display_name_en":"Otzma Yehudit","display_name_he":"עוצמה יהודית","expected_seats":7.8643061479604786,"forecast_date":"2026-10-09","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":8,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.9937887213741234,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.006211278625876529,"p_represented":0.9937887213741234,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_otzma","raw_b5_point_pp":6.262374966788755,"seat_q10":6.0,"seat_q90":10.0,"seat_range_display":"6–10","seat_range_high":10,"seat_range_low":6,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":6.127186810840083,"vote_q10_pp":4.441315636893492,"vote_q2_5_pp":3.736125608862455,"vote_q90_pp":7.9617463011832506,"vote_q97_5_pp":9.18069276307709,"zero_seat_probability":0.006211278625876529},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":4.6553497364986365,"contest_party_id":"K26_NATIVE_LIST::RZP_AND_ZEHUT","display_name_en":"Religious Zionism–Zehut","display_name_he":"הציונות הדתית וזהות","expected_seats":5.598425506065455,"forecast_date":"2026-10-09","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":6,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.8817671779923203,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.11823282200767969,"p_represented":0.8817671779923203,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_religious_zionism_zehut","raw_b5_point_pp":4.741712274969288,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":8.0,"seat_range_display":"4–9","seat_range_high":9,"seat_range_low":4,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":4.745005495304871,"vote_q10_pp":3.125813240383446,"vote_q2_5_pp":2.421574929060716,"vote_q90_pp":6.501245737114197,"vote_q97_5_pp":7.731046462119562,"zero_seat_probability":0.11823282200767969},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":3.1153946705796183,"contest_party_id":"WINTER_NEW_PARTY","display_name_en":"Amcha Yisrael","display_name_he":"עמך ישראל","expected_seats":1.8733629490111177,"forecast_date":"2026-10-09","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":0,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.34748263643690414,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.6525173635630959,"p_represented":0.3474826364369041,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_amcha_yisrael","raw_b5_point_pp":3.1731891236965937,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":6.0,"seat_range_display":"0, 4–7","seat_range_high":7,"seat_range_low":4,"seat_range_mode":"ZERO_SEPARATED_CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":2.956596827197264,"vote_q10_pp":1.507680068891548,"vote_q2_5_pp":1.0892656569058612,"vote_q90_pp":4.678682771575491,"vote_q97_5_pp":5.9616076206863235,"zero_seat_probability":0.6525173635630959},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":0.5926263449995827,"contest_party_id":"K26_NATIVE_LIST::HAREDI_PUBLIC","display_name_en":"Haredi Public","display_name_he":"הציבור החרדי","expected_seats":0.015252109556763517,"forecast_date":"2026-10-09","group_id":"UNCOMMITTED","headline_seats":0,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.0025143318595353126,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.9974856681404647,"p_represented":0.0025143318595353794,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_haredi_public","raw_b5_point_pp":0.6036203021490281,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":0.0,"seat_range_display":"0","seat_range_high":null,"seat_range_low":null,"seat_range_mode":"ZERO_ONLY_RARE_REPRESENTATION","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":0.5488270846316301,"vote_q10_pp":0.10280892580063868,"vote_q2_5_pp":0.04980856228922866,"vote_q90_pp":1.2338383705734173,"vote_q97_5_pp":2.157922417058624,"zero_seat_probability":0.9974856681404647},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":9.496255939717082,"contest_party_id":"K26_NATIVE_LIST::BEYAHAD_BENNETT","display_name_en":"Beyachad","display_name_he":"ביחד","expected_seats":12.474277292764093,"forecast_date":"2026-10-09","group_id":"CHANGE_CORE","headline_seats":13,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":1.0,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.0,"p_represented":1.0,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_beyachad","raw_b5_point_pp":9.672423320331067,"seat_q10":10.0,"seat_q90":16.0,"seat_range_display":"10–16","seat_range_high":16,"seat_range_low":10,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":9.475637678480176,"vote_q10_pp":7.354230999017045,"vote_q2_5_pp":6.459575359685777,"vote_q90_pp":11.754382298830011,"vote_q97_5_pp":13.265583995477991,"zero_seat_probability":0.0},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":17.11954298996529,"contest_party_id":"YASHAR_GADI_EISENKOT","display_name_en":"Yashar!","display_name_he":"ישר!","expected_seats":23.126217040395556,"forecast_date":"2026-10-09","group_id":"CHANGE_CORE","headline_seats":23,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":1.0,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.0,"p_represented":1.0,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_yashar","raw_b5_point_pp":17.437131844456562,"seat_q10":20.0,"seat_q90":26.0,"seat_range_display":"20–26","seat_range_high":26,"seat_range_low":20,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":17.263036367270445,"vote_q10_pp":15.032547771733794,"vote_q2_5_pp":13.930133877703506,"vote_q90_pp":19.55780717843611,"vote_q97_5_pp":20.978754283107765,"zero_seat_probability":0.0},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":6.636587551468527,"contest_party_id":"YISRAEL_BEITEINU","display_name_en":"Yisrael Beiteinu","display_name_he":"ישראל ביתנו","expected_seats":8.356333218783565,"forecast_date":"2026-10-09","group_id":"CHANGE_CORE","headline_seats":8,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.9985331354043138,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.0014668645956862018,"p_represented":0.9985331354043138,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_yisrael_beiteinu","raw_b5_point_pp":6.759704520153811,"seat_q10":6.0,"seat_q90":11.0,"seat_range_display":"6–11","seat_range_high":11,"seat_range_low":6,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":6.475326398922289,"vote_q10_pp":4.766654231493938,"vote_q2_5_pp":4.084418006600658,"vote_q90_pp":8.28050150264311,"vote_q97_5_pp":9.641001417980053,"zero_seat_probability":0.0014668645956862018},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":7.5500847560611195,"contest_party_id":"THE_DEMOCRATS","display_name_en":"The Democrats","display_name_he":"הדמוקרטים","expected_seats":9.716917557060597,"forecast_date":"2026-10-09","group_id":"CHANGE_CORE","headline_seats":10,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.9999126077960477,"p_below_legal_threshold":8.73922039522962e-05,"p_represented":0.9999126077960476,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_democrats","raw_b5_point_pp":7.690148236166573,"seat_q10":7.0,"seat_q90":12.0,"seat_range_display":"7–12","seat_range_high":12,"seat_range_low":7,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":7.466368868903778,"vote_q10_pp":5.694926887327383,"vote_q2_5_pp":4.926175492899661,"vote_q90_pp":9.372159280283862,"vote_q97_5_pp":10.715035442611477,"zero_seat_probability":8.73922039522962e-05},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":3.9503053370669323,"contest_party_id":"RAAM","display_name_en":"Raam","display_name_he":"רע״ם","expected_seats":3.859269195335223,"forecast_date":"2026-10-09","group_id":"ARAB_LISTS","headline_seats":5,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.6750556167366817,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.32494438326331826,"p_represented":0.6750556167366817,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_raam","raw_b5_point_pp":4.023588423398455,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":7.0,"seat_range_display":"0, 4–8","seat_range_high":8,"seat_range_low":4,"seat_range_mode":"ZERO_SEPARATED_CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":3.915290719623443,"vote_q10_pp":2.298018625922557,"vote_q2_5_pp":1.7485622988170648,"vote_q90_pp":5.623895504147716,"vote_q97_5_pp":6.855846986855488,"zero_seat_probability":0.32494438326331826},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":5.64224365367504,"contest_party_id":"HADASH_TAAL_BALAD","display_name_en":"Joint List","display_name_he":"הרשימה המשותפת","expected_seats":7.219834997566303,"forecast_date":"2026-10-09","group_id":"ARAB_LISTS","headline_seats":7,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.9834325823917835,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.016567417608216485,"p_represented":0.9834325823917834,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_joint_list","raw_b5_point_pp":5.746914304041212,"seat_q10":5.0,"seat_q90":10.0,"seat_range_display":"5–10","seat_range_high":10,"seat_range_low":5,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":5.683482806423736,"vote_q10_pp":4.0377447532674235,"vote_q2_5_pp":3.401621719919425,"vote_q90_pp":7.461375684142469,"vote_q97_5_pp":8.705971909709243,"zero_seat_probability":0.016567417608216485},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":1.2207565749966993,"contest_party_id":"BLUE_WHITE","display_name_en":"Blue and White","display_name_he":"כחול לבן","expected_seats":0.06370489264828211,"forecast_date":"2026-10-09","group_id":"UNCOMMITTED","headline_seats":0,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.011372908631436252,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.9886270913685637,"p_represented":0.011372908631436298,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_blue_white","raw_b5_point_pp":1.2434031306023683,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":0.0,"seat_range_display":"0","seat_range_high":null,"seat_range_low":null,"seat_range_mode":"ZERO_ONLY_RARE_REPRESENTATION","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":1.1066079442334038,"vote_q10_pp":0.3479283030006438,"vote_q2_5_pp":0.20289678904220057,"vote_q90_pp":2.157870129271956,"vote_q97_5_pp":2.9733609424201743,"zero_seat_probability":0.9886270913685637},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":2.562047576916164,"contest_party_id":"K26_NATIVE_LIST::RESERVISTS_AND_NEW_ECONOMIC_PARTY","display_name_en":"Reservists–Economic","display_name_he":"המילואימניקים והכלכלית","expected_seats":1.021183817002667,"forecast_date":"2026-10-09","group_id":"UNCOMMITTED","headline_seats":0,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.1893831216875993,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.8106168783124007,"p_represented":0.18938312168759927,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_reservists_economic","raw_b5_point_pp":2.609576751940397,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":5.0,"seat_range_display":"0, 4–7","seat_range_high":7,"seat_range_low":4,"seat_range_mode":"ZERO_SEPARATED_CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":2.34436799259006,"vote_q10_pp":1.0128939525254796,"vote_q2_5_pp":0.683610054310806,"vote_q90_pp":4.009396165672414,"vote_q97_5_pp":5.3630135467636535,"zero_seat_probability":0.8106168783124007},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":17.325179638512996,"contest_party_id":"LIKUD","display_name_en":"Likud","display_name_he":"הליכוד","expected_seats":23.2848,"forecast_date":"2026-10-10","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":24,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":1.0,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.0,"p_represented":1.0,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_likud","raw_b5_point_pp":17.646583309071026,"seat_q10":20.0,"seat_q90":27.0,"seat_range_display":"20–27","seat_range_high":27,"seat_range_low":20,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":17.325172856837376,"vote_q10_pp":14.774070045581809,"vote_q2_5_pp":13.640362278990969,"vote_q90_pp":19.97044929642323,"vote_q97_5_pp":21.54993655847917,"zero_seat_probability":0.0},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":5.674072203137139,"contest_party_id":"SHAS","display_name_en":"Shas","display_name_he":"ש״ס","expected_seats":7.16615,"forecast_date":"2026-10-10","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":7,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.96685,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.03315,"p_represented":0.96685,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_shas","raw_b5_point_pp":5.779333312756207,"seat_q10":5.0,"seat_q90":10.0,"seat_range_display":"5–10","seat_range_high":10,"seat_range_low":5,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":5.674097892770035,"vote_q10_pp":3.810755619711477,"vote_q2_5_pp":3.1276844322934925,"vote_q90_pp":7.797399710864931,"vote_q97_5_pp":9.344785434718217,"zero_seat_probability":0.03315},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":5.9112369834026435,"contest_party_id":"UNITED_TORAH_JUDAISM","display_name_en":"United Torah Judaism","display_name_he":"יהדות התורה","expected_seats":7.54595,"forecast_date":"2026-10-10","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":8,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.9815,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.0185,"p_represented":0.9815,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_utj","raw_b5_point_pp":6.020897795217872,"seat_q10":5.0,"seat_q90":11.0,"seat_range_display":"5–11","seat_range_high":11,"seat_range_low":5,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":5.911185773885291,"vote_q10_pp":4.049801016958038,"vote_q2_5_pp":3.357914937342311,"vote_q90_pp":8.037578467069846,"vote_q97_5_pp":9.575627141261558,"zero_seat_probability":0.0185},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":6.148316043002528,"contest_party_id":"OTZMA_YEHUDIT","display_name_en":"Otzma Yehudit","display_name_he":"עוצמה יהודית","expected_seats":7.88005,"forecast_date":"2026-10-10","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":8,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.98305,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.01695,"p_represented":0.98305,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_otzma","raw_b5_point_pp":6.262374966788755,"seat_q10":5.0,"seat_q90":11.0,"seat_range_display":"5–11","seat_range_high":11,"seat_range_low":5,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":6.148359774727872,"vote_q10_pp":4.1426370225850215,"vote_q2_5_pp":3.41367952716643,"vote_q90_pp":8.454190962149871,"vote_q97_5_pp":10.07096441581203,"zero_seat_probability":0.01695},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":4.6553497364986365,"contest_party_id":"K26_NATIVE_LIST::RZP_AND_ZEHUT","display_name_en":"Religious Zionism–Zehut","display_name_he":"הציונות הדתית וזהות","expected_seats":5.27485,"forecast_date":"2026-10-10","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":6,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.8190500000000001,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.18095,"p_represented":0.81905,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_religious_zionism_zehut","raw_b5_point_pp":4.741712274969288,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":9.0,"seat_range_display":"4–9","seat_range_high":9,"seat_range_low":4,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":4.655371949948706,"vote_q10_pp":2.853045879513884,"vote_q2_5_pp":2.267994522863116,"vote_q90_pp":6.759556764081182,"vote_q97_5_pp":8.414590328650267,"zero_seat_probability":0.18095},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":3.1153946705796183,"contest_party_id":"WINTER_NEW_PARTY","display_name_en":"Amcha Yisrael","display_name_he":"עמך ישראל","expected_seats":2.18585,"forecast_date":"2026-10-10","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":0,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.37685,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.62315,"p_represented":0.37685,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_amcha_yisrael","raw_b5_point_pp":3.1731891236965937,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":6.0,"seat_range_display":"0, 4–8","seat_range_high":8,"seat_range_low":4,"seat_range_mode":"ZERO_SEPARATED_CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":3.1152310041057865,"vote_q10_pp":1.5136538353772735,"vote_q2_5_pp":1.1010122425792692,"vote_q90_pp":5.097409289326579,"vote_q97_5_pp":6.93155625010549,"zero_seat_probability":0.62315},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":0.5926263449995827,"contest_party_id":"K26_NATIVE_LIST::HAREDI_PUBLIC","display_name_en":"Haredi Public","display_name_he":"הציבור החרדי","expected_seats":0.07845,"forecast_date":"2026-10-10","group_id":"UNCOMMITTED","headline_seats":0,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.013349999999999973,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.98665,"p_represented":0.01335,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_haredi_public","raw_b5_point_pp":0.6036203021490281,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":0.0,"seat_range_display":"0","seat_range_high":null,"seat_range_low":null,"seat_range_mode":"ZERO_ONLY_RARE_REPRESENTATION","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":0.5926143710979112,"vote_q10_pp":0.10158854026008704,"vote_q2_5_pp":0.05129625373267584,"vote_q90_pp":1.2946918999985844,"vote_q97_5_pp":2.513006463895959,"zero_seat_probability":0.98665},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":9.496255939717082,"contest_party_id":"K26_NATIVE_LIST::BEYAHAD_BENNETT","display_name_en":"Beyachad","display_name_he":"ביחד","expected_seats":12.5389,"forecast_date":"2026-10-10","group_id":"CHANGE_CORE","headline_seats":13,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":1.0,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.0,"p_represented":1.0,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_beyachad","raw_b5_point_pp":9.672423320331067,"seat_q10":9.0,"seat_q90":16.0,"seat_range_display":"9–16","seat_range_high":16,"seat_range_low":9,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":9.496167563980043,"vote_q10_pp":7.213430980060228,"vote_q2_5_pp":6.290158798631514,"vote_q90_pp":11.991857217348645,"vote_q97_5_pp":13.629198763454076,"zero_seat_probability":0.0},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":17.11954298996529,"contest_party_id":"YASHAR_GADI_EISENKOT","display_name_en":"Yashar!","display_name_he":"ישר!","expected_seats":23.0078,"forecast_date":"2026-10-10","group_id":"CHANGE_CORE","headline_seats":23,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":1.0,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.0,"p_represented":1.0,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_yashar","raw_b5_point_pp":17.437131844456562,"seat_q10":19.0,"seat_q90":27.0,"seat_range_display":"19–27","seat_range_high":27,"seat_range_low":19,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":17.1194996408059,"vote_q10_pp":14.516641844382677,"vote_q2_5_pp":13.349034124376995,"vote_q90_pp":19.855958390995454,"vote_q97_5_pp":21.49362317718696,"zero_seat_probability":0.0},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":6.636587551468527,"contest_party_id":"YISRAEL_BEITEINU","display_name_en":"Yisrael Beiteinu","display_name_he":"ישראל ביתנו","expected_seats":8.5961,"forecast_date":"2026-10-10","group_id":"CHANGE_CORE","headline_seats":9,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.9951,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.0049,"p_represented":0.9951,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_yisrael_beiteinu","raw_b5_point_pp":6.759704520153811,"seat_q10":6.0,"seat_q90":12.0,"seat_range_display":"6–12","seat_range_high":12,"seat_range_low":6,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":6.636642684432142,"vote_q10_pp":4.5871894703485445,"vote_q2_5_pp":3.8430625482367797,"vote_q90_pp":8.915128618413153,"vote_q97_5_pp":10.567022094303816,"zero_seat_probability":0.0049},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":7.5500847560611195,"contest_party_id":"THE_DEMOCRATS","display_name_en":"The Democrats","display_name_he":"הדמוקרטים","expected_seats":9.86545,"forecast_date":"2026-10-10","group_id":"CHANGE_CORE","headline_seats":10,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.99955,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.00045,"p_represented":0.99955,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_democrats","raw_b5_point_pp":7.690148236166573,"seat_q10":7.0,"seat_q90":13.0,"seat_range_display":"7–13","seat_range_high":13,"seat_range_low":7,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":7.549947108696753,"vote_q10_pp":5.364499793797753,"vote_q2_5_pp":4.533031462024501,"vote_q90_pp":9.959251384155326,"vote_q97_5_pp":11.597551704026976,"zero_seat_probability":0.00045},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":3.9503053370669323,"contest_party_id":"RAAM","display_name_en":"Raam","display_name_he":"רע״ם","expected_seats":3.75885,"forecast_date":"2026-10-10","group_id":"ARAB_LISTS","headline_seats":5,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.6208,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.3792,"p_represented":0.6208,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_raam","raw_b5_point_pp":4.023588423398455,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":8.0,"seat_range_display":"0, 4–9","seat_range_high":9,"seat_range_low":4,"seat_range_mode":"ZERO_SEPARATED_CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":3.9503894551458374,"vote_q10_pp":2.214835535888332,"vote_q2_5_pp":1.6911130182151772,"vote_q90_pp":6.036958433524881,"vote_q97_5_pp":7.81983639026649,"zero_seat_probability":0.3792},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":5.64224365367504,"contest_party_id":"HADASH_TAAL_BALAD","display_name_en":"Joint List","display_name_he":"הרשימה המשותפת","expected_seats":7.1125,"forecast_date":"2026-10-10","group_id":"ARAB_LISTS","headline_seats":7,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.9637,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.0363,"p_represented":0.9637,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_joint_list","raw_b5_point_pp":5.746914304041212,"seat_q10":5.0,"seat_q90":10.0,"seat_range_display":"5–10","seat_range_high":10,"seat_range_low":5,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":5.642263097099249,"vote_q10_pp":3.7753162392834043,"vote_q2_5_pp":3.1058917637920658,"vote_q90_pp":7.785694947015783,"vote_q97_5_pp":9.400484242840907,"zero_seat_probability":0.0363},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":1.2207565749966993,"contest_party_id":"BLUE_WHITE","display_name_en":"Blue and White","display_name_he":"כחול לבן","expected_seats":0.26565,"forecast_date":"2026-10-10","group_id":"UNCOMMITTED","headline_seats":0,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.04684999999999995,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.95315,"p_represented":0.04685,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_blue_white","raw_b5_point_pp":1.2434031306023683,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":0.0,"seat_range_display":"0","seat_range_high":null,"seat_range_low":null,"seat_range_mode":"ZERO_ONLY_RARE_REPRESENTATION","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":1.2207003471240467,"vote_q10_pp":0.3539359625748178,"vote_q2_5_pp":0.21252904270902043,"vote_q90_pp":2.427414050204814,"vote_q97_5_pp":3.9827751969543073,"zero_seat_probability":0.95315},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":2.562047576916164,"contest_party_id":"K26_NATIVE_LIST::RESERVISTS_AND_NEW_ECONOMIC_PARTY","display_name_en":"Reservists–Economic","display_name_he":"המילואימניקים והכלכלית","expected_seats":1.43865,"forecast_date":"2026-10-10","group_id":"UNCOMMITTED","headline_seats":0,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.24180000000000001,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.7582,"p_represented":0.2418,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_reservists_economic","raw_b5_point_pp":2.609576751940397,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":6.0,"seat_range_display":"0, 4–9","seat_range_high":9,"seat_range_low":4,"seat_range_mode":"ZERO_SEPARATED_CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":2.562356479343052,"vote_q10_pp":1.0273914543949214,"vote_q2_5_pp":0.6916177515235956,"vote_q90_pp":4.577441836160055,"vote_q97_5_pp":6.696828489385187,"zero_seat_probability":0.7582},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":17.325179638512996,"contest_party_id":"LIKUD","display_name_en":"Likud","display_name_he":"הליכוד","expected_seats":23.6626526202434,"forecast_date":"2026-10-10","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":24,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":1.0,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.0,"p_represented":0.9999999999999999,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_likud","raw_b5_point_pp":17.646583309071026,"seat_q10":20.0,"seat_q90":27.0,"seat_range_display":"20–27","seat_range_high":27,"seat_range_low":20,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":17.655685116250808,"vote_q10_pp":15.132060533547003,"vote_q2_5_pp":13.977923946639997,"vote_q90_pp":20.251814308492186,"vote_q97_5_pp":21.746456484352702,"zero_seat_probability":0.0},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":5.674072203137139,"contest_party_id":"SHAS","display_name_en":"Shas","display_name_he":"ש״ס","expected_seats":7.574162059877959,"forecast_date":"2026-10-10","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":8,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.9886296749182067,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.01137032508179324,"p_represented":0.9886296749182066,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_shas","raw_b5_point_pp":5.779333312756207,"seat_q10":5.0,"seat_q90":10.0,"seat_range_display":"5–10","seat_range_high":10,"seat_range_low":5,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":5.926512059906006,"vote_q10_pp":4.208291538110759,"vote_q2_5_pp":3.5263724864885093,"vote_q90_pp":7.81530695922387,"vote_q97_5_pp":9.10679107199184,"zero_seat_probability":0.01137032508179324},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":5.9112369834026435,"contest_party_id":"UNITED_TORAH_JUDAISM","display_name_en":"United Torah Judaism","display_name_he":"יהדות התורה","expected_seats":7.5631561768101365,"forecast_date":"2026-10-10","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":8,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.9926973805347207,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.007302619465279321,"p_represented":0.9926973805347206,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_utj","raw_b5_point_pp":6.020897795217872,"seat_q10":5.0,"seat_q90":10.0,"seat_range_display":"5–10","seat_range_high":10,"seat_range_low":5,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":5.912567940668864,"vote_q10_pp":4.3027548176955435,"vote_q2_5_pp":3.6668137093160498,"vote_q90_pp":7.654991117421393,"vote_q97_5_pp":8.837540400764652,"zero_seat_probability":0.007302619465279321},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":6.148316043002528,"contest_party_id":"OTZMA_YEHUDIT","display_name_en":"Otzma Yehudit","display_name_he":"עוצמה יהודית","expected_seats":7.850796722357366,"forecast_date":"2026-10-10","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":8,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.9940071056089723,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.005992894391027709,"p_represented":0.9940071056089721,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_otzma","raw_b5_point_pp":6.262374966788755,"seat_q10":6.0,"seat_q90":10.0,"seat_range_display":"6–10","seat_range_high":10,"seat_range_low":6,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":6.114293775654235,"vote_q10_pp":4.4134631362774055,"vote_q2_5_pp":3.716622111547935,"vote_q90_pp":7.977306727326482,"vote_q97_5_pp":9.233065641186007,"zero_seat_probability":0.005992894391027709},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":4.6553497364986365,"contest_party_id":"K26_NATIVE_LIST::RZP_AND_ZEHUT","display_name_en":"Religious Zionism–Zehut","display_name_he":"הציונות הדתית וזהות","expected_seats":5.6114728404021905,"forecast_date":"2026-10-10","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":6,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.8864833411780065,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.11351665882199345,"p_represented":0.8864833411780064,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_religious_zionism_zehut","raw_b5_point_pp":4.741712274969288,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":8.0,"seat_range_display":"4–9","seat_range_high":9,"seat_range_low":4,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":4.746888817649531,"vote_q10_pp":3.14918943063823,"vote_q2_5_pp":2.425040417936431,"vote_q90_pp":6.525514719612311,"vote_q97_5_pp":7.796687512888943,"zero_seat_probability":0.11351665882199345},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":3.1153946705796183,"contest_party_id":"WINTER_NEW_PARTY","display_name_en":"Amcha Yisrael","display_name_he":"עמך ישראל","expected_seats":1.877600025139487,"forecast_date":"2026-10-10","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":0,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.34652111113230855,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.6534788888676915,"p_represented":0.34652111113230843,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_amcha_yisrael","raw_b5_point_pp":3.1731891236965937,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":6.0,"seat_range_display":"0, 4–7","seat_range_high":7,"seat_range_low":4,"seat_range_mode":"ZERO_SEPARATED_CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":2.9581812481150873,"vote_q10_pp":1.5060768526234045,"vote_q2_5_pp":1.0825070998529678,"vote_q90_pp":4.710586505892824,"vote_q97_5_pp":6.013874152441006,"zero_seat_probability":0.6534788888676915},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":0.5926263449995827,"contest_party_id":"K26_NATIVE_LIST::HAREDI_PUBLIC","display_name_en":"Haredi Public","display_name_he":"הציבור החרדי","expected_seats":0.019789905306567483,"forecast_date":"2026-10-10","group_id":"UNCOMMITTED","headline_seats":0,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.003413481031791843,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.9965865189682082,"p_represented":0.003413481031791731,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_haredi_public","raw_b5_point_pp":0.6036203021490281,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":0.0,"seat_range_display":"0","seat_range_high":null,"seat_range_low":null,"seat_range_mode":"ZERO_ONLY_RARE_REPRESENTATION","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":0.5433460295084146,"vote_q10_pp":0.09864188875392366,"vote_q2_5_pp":0.05189639006093646,"vote_q90_pp":1.2101754362368267,"vote_q97_5_pp":2.145044401202441,"zero_seat_probability":0.9965865189682082},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":9.496255939717082,"contest_party_id":"K26_NATIVE_LIST::BEYAHAD_BENNETT","display_name_en":"Beyachad","display_name_he":"ביחד","expected_seats":12.48238906705403,"forecast_date":"2026-10-10","group_id":"CHANGE_CORE","headline_seats":13,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":1.0,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.0,"p_represented":0.9999999999999999,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_beyachad","raw_b5_point_pp":9.672423320331067,"seat_q10":10.0,"seat_q90":16.0,"seat_range_display":"10–16","seat_range_high":16,"seat_range_low":10,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":9.487540393421062,"vote_q10_pp":7.364588348665566,"vote_q2_5_pp":6.424961131404775,"vote_q90_pp":11.740523038062857,"vote_q97_5_pp":13.211247643650754,"zero_seat_probability":0.0},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":17.11954298996529,"contest_party_id":"YASHAR_GADI_EISENKOT","display_name_en":"Yashar!","display_name_he":"ישר!","expected_seats":23.094931612817998,"forecast_date":"2026-10-10","group_id":"CHANGE_CORE","headline_seats":23,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":1.0,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.0,"p_represented":0.9999999999999999,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_yashar","raw_b5_point_pp":17.437131844456562,"seat_q10":20.0,"seat_q90":26.0,"seat_range_display":"20–26","seat_range_high":26,"seat_range_low":20,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":17.24367227593901,"vote_q10_pp":14.996210518823661,"vote_q2_5_pp":13.989388358952667,"vote_q90_pp":19.554894549102684,"vote_q97_5_pp":20.92108147389543,"zero_seat_probability":0.0},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":6.636587551468527,"contest_party_id":"YISRAEL_BEITEINU","display_name_en":"Yisrael Beiteinu","display_name_he":"ישראל ביתנו","expected_seats":8.351709493600843,"forecast_date":"2026-10-10","group_id":"CHANGE_CORE","headline_seats":8,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.998249848880518,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.0017501511194819826,"p_represented":0.9982498488805178,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_yisrael_beiteinu","raw_b5_point_pp":6.759704520153811,"seat_q10":6.0,"seat_q90":11.0,"seat_range_display":"6–11","seat_range_high":11,"seat_range_low":6,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":6.472919783609539,"vote_q10_pp":4.7475294038606775,"vote_q2_5_pp":4.074784177596582,"vote_q90_pp":8.291948240685583,"vote_q97_5_pp":9.589537239564303,"zero_seat_probability":0.0017501511194819826},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":7.5500847560611195,"contest_party_id":"THE_DEMOCRATS","display_name_en":"The Democrats","display_name_he":"הדמוקרטים","expected_seats":9.74596998794112,"forecast_date":"2026-10-10","group_id":"CHANGE_CORE","headline_seats":10,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.999921167865779,"p_below_legal_threshold":7.883213422103574e-05,"p_represented":0.9999211678657789,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_democrats","raw_b5_point_pp":7.690148236166573,"seat_q10":7.0,"seat_q90":12.0,"seat_range_display":"7–12","seat_range_high":12,"seat_range_low":7,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":7.487660254906457,"vote_q10_pp":5.667474364014477,"vote_q2_5_pp":4.899743544763688,"vote_q90_pp":9.418936769588537,"vote_q97_5_pp":10.726660711873025,"zero_seat_probability":7.883213422103574e-05},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":3.9503053370669323,"contest_party_id":"RAAM","display_name_en":"Raam","display_name_he":"רע״ם","expected_seats":3.827364758982979,"forecast_date":"2026-10-10","group_id":"ARAB_LISTS","headline_seats":5,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.6660446136088817,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.3339553863911183,"p_represented":0.6660446136088816,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_raam","raw_b5_point_pp":4.023588423398455,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":7.0,"seat_range_display":"0, 4–8","seat_range_high":8,"seat_range_low":4,"seat_range_mode":"ZERO_SEPARATED_CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":3.9146627705061174,"vote_q10_pp":2.2905223786547158,"vote_q2_5_pp":1.7425354335052603,"vote_q90_pp":5.654926384155737,"vote_q97_5_pp":6.892377398338805,"zero_seat_probability":0.3339553863911183},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":5.64224365367504,"contest_party_id":"HADASH_TAAL_BALAD","display_name_en":"Joint List","display_name_he":"הרשימה המשותפת","expected_seats":7.227844200008811,"forecast_date":"2026-10-10","group_id":"ARAB_LISTS","headline_seats":7,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.9849995017265452,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.015000498273454805,"p_represented":0.9849995017265452,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_joint_list","raw_b5_point_pp":5.746914304041212,"seat_q10":5.0,"seat_q90":10.0,"seat_range_display":"5–10","seat_range_high":10,"seat_range_low":5,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":5.6827184485626026,"vote_q10_pp":4.047269707969067,"vote_q2_5_pp":3.42678204529449,"vote_q90_pp":7.417558394448765,"vote_q97_5_pp":8.671483107944727,"zero_seat_probability":0.015000498273454805},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":1.2207565749966993,"contest_party_id":"BLUE_WHITE","display_name_en":"Blue and White","display_name_he":"כחול לבן","expected_seats":0.07084378159743895,"forecast_date":"2026-10-10","group_id":"UNCOMMITTED","headline_seats":0,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.012647550805467755,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.9873524491945322,"p_represented":0.012647550805467707,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_blue_white","raw_b5_point_pp":1.2434031306023683,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":0.0,"seat_range_display":"0","seat_range_high":null,"seat_range_low":null,"seat_range_mode":"ZERO_ONLY_RARE_REPRESENTATION","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":1.1029431467831443,"vote_q10_pp":0.35343065888272834,"vote_q2_5_pp":0.21058092120455923,"vote_q90_pp":2.137843175224755,"vote_q97_5_pp":2.9773008986410434,"zero_seat_probability":0.9873524491945322},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":2.562047576916164,"contest_party_id":"K26_NATIVE_LIST::RESERVISTS_AND_NEW_ECONOMIC_PARTY","display_name_en":"Reservists–Economic","display_name_he":"המילואימניקים והכלכלית","expected_seats":1.0393167478596643,"forecast_date":"2026-10-10","group_id":"UNCOMMITTED","headline_seats":0,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.19237225922413248,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.8076277407758675,"p_represented":0.19237225922413237,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_reservists_economic","raw_b5_point_pp":2.609576751940397,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":5.0,"seat_range_display":"0, 4–7","seat_range_high":7,"seat_range_low":4,"seat_range_mode":"ZERO_SEPARATED_CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":2.3504079385191132,"vote_q10_pp":1.0072122642030104,"vote_q2_5_pp":0.6864058000449147,"vote_q90_pp":4.031360440548963,"vote_q97_5_pp":5.446841601578729,"zero_seat_probability":0.8076277407758675},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":17.325179638512996,"contest_party_id":"LIKUD","display_name_en":"Likud","display_name_he":"הליכוד","expected_seats":23.28965,"forecast_date":"2026-10-11","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":24,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":1.0,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.0,"p_represented":1.0,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_likud","raw_b5_point_pp":17.646583309071026,"seat_q10":20.0,"seat_q90":27.0,"seat_range_display":"20–27","seat_range_high":27,"seat_range_low":20,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":17.325196509266004,"vote_q10_pp":14.7866831243573,"vote_q2_5_pp":13.640435240450042,"vote_q90_pp":19.990474889641973,"vote_q97_5_pp":21.537364311749037,"zero_seat_probability":0.0},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":5.674072203137139,"contest_party_id":"SHAS","display_name_en":"Shas","display_name_he":"ש״ס","expected_seats":7.1692,"forecast_date":"2026-10-11","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":7,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.968,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.032,"p_represented":0.968,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_shas","raw_b5_point_pp":5.779333312756207,"seat_q10":5.0,"seat_q90":10.0,"seat_range_display":"5–10","seat_range_high":10,"seat_range_low":5,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":5.6739271605783275,"vote_q10_pp":3.8172659262389446,"vote_q2_5_pp":3.154858424316978,"vote_q90_pp":7.773288144803687,"vote_q97_5_pp":9.350794440058415,"zero_seat_probability":0.032},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":5.9112369834026435,"contest_party_id":"UNITED_TORAH_JUDAISM","display_name_en":"United Torah Judaism","display_name_he":"יהדות התורה","expected_seats":7.54745,"forecast_date":"2026-10-11","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":8,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.98155,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.01845,"p_represented":0.98155,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_utj","raw_b5_point_pp":6.020897795217872,"seat_q10":5.0,"seat_q90":10.0,"seat_range_display":"5–11","seat_range_high":11,"seat_range_low":5,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":5.911351758677199,"vote_q10_pp":4.0375695296657215,"vote_q2_5_pp":3.371703813561718,"vote_q90_pp":7.978365246841791,"vote_q97_5_pp":9.480142374574912,"zero_seat_probability":0.01845},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":6.148316043002528,"contest_party_id":"OTZMA_YEHUDIT","display_name_en":"Otzma Yehudit","display_name_he":"עוצמה יהודית","expected_seats":7.8772,"forecast_date":"2026-10-11","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":8,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.98205,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.01795,"p_represented":0.98205,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_otzma","raw_b5_point_pp":6.262374966788755,"seat_q10":5.0,"seat_q90":11.0,"seat_range_display":"5–11","seat_range_high":11,"seat_range_low":5,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":6.148232675549643,"vote_q10_pp":4.127725424030365,"vote_q2_5_pp":3.3973599575320135,"vote_q90_pp":8.445496553688368,"vote_q97_5_pp":10.089873256237349,"zero_seat_probability":0.01795},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":4.6553497364986365,"contest_party_id":"K26_NATIVE_LIST::RZP_AND_ZEHUT","display_name_en":"Religious Zionism–Zehut","display_name_he":"הציונות הדתית וזהות","expected_seats":5.2717,"forecast_date":"2026-10-11","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":6,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.8175,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.1825,"p_represented":0.8175,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_religious_zionism_zehut","raw_b5_point_pp":4.741712274969288,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":9.0,"seat_range_display":"4–9","seat_range_high":9,"seat_range_low":4,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":4.655299830045562,"vote_q10_pp":2.849709024715993,"vote_q2_5_pp":2.2586585306186593,"vote_q90_pp":6.78606550519664,"vote_q97_5_pp":8.498296201224234,"zero_seat_probability":0.1825},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":3.1153946705796183,"contest_party_id":"WINTER_NEW_PARTY","display_name_en":"Amcha Yisrael","display_name_he":"עמך ישראל","expected_seats":2.1728,"forecast_date":"2026-10-11","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":0,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.37575000000000003,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.62425,"p_represented":0.37575,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_amcha_yisrael","raw_b5_point_pp":3.1731891236965937,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":6.0,"seat_range_display":"0, 4–8","seat_range_high":8,"seat_range_low":4,"seat_range_mode":"ZERO_SEPARATED_CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":3.115485331536634,"vote_q10_pp":1.5400450435784239,"vote_q2_5_pp":1.1084363781565327,"vote_q90_pp":5.086337554911957,"vote_q97_5_pp":6.918214002935027,"zero_seat_probability":0.62425},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":0.5926263449995827,"contest_party_id":"K26_NATIVE_LIST::HAREDI_PUBLIC","display_name_en":"Haredi Public","display_name_he":"הציבור החרדי","expected_seats":0.07365,"forecast_date":"2026-10-11","group_id":"UNCOMMITTED","headline_seats":0,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.01254999999999995,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.98745,"p_represented":0.01255,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_haredi_public","raw_b5_point_pp":0.6036203021490281,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":0.0,"seat_range_display":"0","seat_range_high":null,"seat_range_low":null,"seat_range_mode":"ZERO_ONLY_RARE_REPRESENTATION","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":0.5926092134982722,"vote_q10_pp":0.10662646727281533,"vote_q2_5_pp":0.05426944787807625,"vote_q90_pp":1.2933948950077006,"vote_q97_5_pp":2.4888171684425813,"zero_seat_probability":0.98745},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":9.496255939717082,"contest_party_id":"K26_NATIVE_LIST::BEYAHAD_BENNETT","display_name_en":"Beyachad","display_name_he":"ביחד","expected_seats":12.5403,"forecast_date":"2026-10-11","group_id":"CHANGE_CORE","headline_seats":13,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":1.0,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.0,"p_represented":1.0,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_beyachad","raw_b5_point_pp":9.672423320331067,"seat_q10":9.0,"seat_q90":16.0,"seat_range_display":"9–16","seat_range_high":16,"seat_range_low":9,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":9.496311050208803,"vote_q10_pp":7.213067778000176,"vote_q2_5_pp":6.239931200768581,"vote_q90_pp":11.976472712389208,"vote_q97_5_pp":13.610530991299706,"zero_seat_probability":0.0},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":17.11954298996529,"contest_party_id":"YASHAR_GADI_EISENKOT","display_name_en":"Yashar!","display_name_he":"ישר!","expected_seats":23.00445,"forecast_date":"2026-10-11","group_id":"CHANGE_CORE","headline_seats":23,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":1.0,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.0,"p_represented":1.0,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_yashar","raw_b5_point_pp":17.437131844456562,"seat_q10":19.0,"seat_q90":27.0,"seat_range_display":"19–27","seat_range_high":27,"seat_range_low":19,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":17.11956678625723,"vote_q10_pp":14.555854470552118,"vote_q2_5_pp":13.296711883715052,"vote_q90_pp":19.814127766899308,"vote_q97_5_pp":21.428259806591857,"zero_seat_probability":0.0},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":6.636587551468527,"contest_party_id":"YISRAEL_BEITEINU","display_name_en":"Yisrael Beiteinu","display_name_he":"ישראל ביתנו","expected_seats":8.5923,"forecast_date":"2026-10-11","group_id":"CHANGE_CORE","headline_seats":9,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.99425,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.00575,"p_represented":0.99425,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_yisrael_beiteinu","raw_b5_point_pp":6.759704520153811,"seat_q10":6.0,"seat_q90":12.0,"seat_range_display":"6–12","seat_range_high":12,"seat_range_low":6,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":6.636643098329623,"vote_q10_pp":4.604572769200128,"vote_q2_5_pp":3.837105393535211,"vote_q90_pp":8.950219643913767,"vote_q97_5_pp":10.548581438739898,"zero_seat_probability":0.00575},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":7.5500847560611195,"contest_party_id":"THE_DEMOCRATS","display_name_en":"The Democrats","display_name_he":"הדמוקרטים","expected_seats":9.86735,"forecast_date":"2026-10-11","group_id":"CHANGE_CORE","headline_seats":10,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.9996,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.0004,"p_represented":0.9996,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_democrats","raw_b5_point_pp":7.690148236166573,"seat_q10":7.0,"seat_q90":13.0,"seat_range_display":"7–13","seat_range_high":13,"seat_range_low":7,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":7.549997993851109,"vote_q10_pp":5.387788785320317,"vote_q2_5_pp":4.5827354515651475,"vote_q90_pp":9.956646577146234,"vote_q97_5_pp":11.634890270894944,"zero_seat_probability":0.0004},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":3.9503053370669323,"contest_party_id":"RAAM","display_name_en":"Raam","display_name_he":"רע״ם","expected_seats":3.75895,"forecast_date":"2026-10-11","group_id":"ARAB_LISTS","headline_seats":5,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.6227,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.3773,"p_represented":0.6227,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_raam","raw_b5_point_pp":4.023588423398455,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":8.0,"seat_range_display":"0, 4–9","seat_range_high":9,"seat_range_low":4,"seat_range_mode":"ZERO_SEPARATED_CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":3.9503884434790524,"vote_q10_pp":2.2147997162809214,"vote_q2_5_pp":1.7049320263389476,"vote_q90_pp":6.037707981907734,"vote_q97_5_pp":7.750387847758162,"zero_seat_probability":0.3773},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":5.64224365367504,"contest_party_id":"HADASH_TAAL_BALAD","display_name_en":"Joint List","display_name_he":"הרשימה המשותפת","expected_seats":7.1145,"forecast_date":"2026-10-11","group_id":"ARAB_LISTS","headline_seats":7,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.96335,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.03665,"p_represented":0.96335,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_joint_list","raw_b5_point_pp":5.746914304041212,"seat_q10":5.0,"seat_q90":10.0,"seat_range_display":"5–10","seat_range_high":10,"seat_range_low":5,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":5.642193581096487,"vote_q10_pp":3.778159581848832,"vote_q2_5_pp":3.082700114040909,"vote_q90_pp":7.738600914029508,"vote_q97_5_pp":9.257428641122605,"zero_seat_probability":0.03665},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":1.2207565749966993,"contest_party_id":"BLUE_WHITE","display_name_en":"Blue and White","display_name_he":"כחול לבן","expected_seats":0.27285,"forecast_date":"2026-10-11","group_id":"UNCOMMITTED","headline_seats":0,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.047150000000000025,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.95285,"p_represented":0.04715,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_blue_white","raw_b5_point_pp":1.2434031306023683,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":0.0,"seat_range_display":"0","seat_range_high":null,"seat_range_low":null,"seat_range_mode":"ZERO_ONLY_RARE_REPRESENTATION","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":1.2206606918331924,"vote_q10_pp":0.3498123504507806,"vote_q2_5_pp":0.2126289071960031,"vote_q90_pp":2.4120329875743414,"vote_q97_5_pp":4.032742154719355,"zero_seat_probability":0.95285},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":2.562047576916164,"contest_party_id":"K26_NATIVE_LIST::RESERVISTS_AND_NEW_ECONOMIC_PARTY","display_name_en":"Reservists–Economic","display_name_he":"המילואימניקים והכלכלית","expected_seats":1.44765,"forecast_date":"2026-10-11","group_id":"UNCOMMITTED","headline_seats":0,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.24650000000000005,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.7535,"p_represented":0.2465,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_reservists_economic","raw_b5_point_pp":2.609576751940397,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":6.0,"seat_range_display":"0, 4–8","seat_range_high":8,"seat_range_low":4,"seat_range_mode":"ZERO_SEPARATED_CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":2.5621358757928587,"vote_q10_pp":1.0509928116522467,"vote_q2_5_pp":0.7030070918628804,"vote_q90_pp":4.520266876024622,"vote_q97_5_pp":6.575236482388011,"zero_seat_probability":0.7535},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":17.325179638512996,"contest_party_id":"LIKUD","display_name_en":"Likud","display_name_he":"הליכוד","expected_seats":23.67231237225657,"forecast_date":"2026-10-11","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":24,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":1.0,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.0,"p_represented":1.0,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_likud","raw_b5_point_pp":17.646583309071026,"seat_q10":20.0,"seat_q90":27.0,"seat_range_display":"20–27","seat_range_high":27,"seat_range_low":20,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":17.654786670269466,"vote_q10_pp":15.176049195349927,"vote_q2_5_pp":14.017934886707579,"vote_q90_pp":20.24504216527933,"vote_q97_5_pp":21.720864675931686,"zero_seat_probability":0.0},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":5.674072203137139,"contest_party_id":"SHAS","display_name_en":"Shas","display_name_he":"ש״ס","expected_seats":7.559078757648486,"forecast_date":"2026-10-11","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":8,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.9885814310704083,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.01141856892959171,"p_represented":0.9885814310704082,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_shas","raw_b5_point_pp":5.779333312756207,"seat_q10":5.0,"seat_q90":10.0,"seat_range_display":"5–10","seat_range_high":10,"seat_range_low":5,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":5.916293287888021,"vote_q10_pp":4.205366708200221,"vote_q2_5_pp":3.524555711437327,"vote_q90_pp":7.80210351745712,"vote_q97_5_pp":9.062255282900187,"zero_seat_probability":0.01141856892959171},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":5.9112369834026435,"contest_party_id":"UNITED_TORAH_JUDAISM","display_name_en":"United Torah Judaism","display_name_he":"יהדות התורה","expected_seats":7.5629352840212825,"forecast_date":"2026-10-11","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":8,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.9928943033104821,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.00710569668951792,"p_represented":0.992894303310482,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_utj","raw_b5_point_pp":6.020897795217872,"seat_q10":5.0,"seat_q90":10.0,"seat_range_display":"5–10","seat_range_high":10,"seat_range_low":5,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":5.909488696678119,"vote_q10_pp":4.287442567227399,"vote_q2_5_pp":3.6518299965426806,"vote_q90_pp":7.65784019794179,"vote_q97_5_pp":8.822554390851376,"zero_seat_probability":0.00710569668951792},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":6.148316043002528,"contest_party_id":"OTZMA_YEHUDIT","display_name_en":"Otzma Yehudit","display_name_he":"עוצמה יהודית","expected_seats":7.858424674079298,"forecast_date":"2026-10-11","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":8,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.9933205236297483,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.0066794763702516845,"p_represented":0.9933205236297483,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_otzma","raw_b5_point_pp":6.262374966788755,"seat_q10":6.0,"seat_q90":10.0,"seat_range_display":"6–10","seat_range_high":10,"seat_range_low":6,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":6.1229541155634095,"vote_q10_pp":4.414774921883631,"vote_q2_5_pp":3.7377045791493493,"vote_q90_pp":7.949275545883168,"vote_q97_5_pp":9.263190302946288,"zero_seat_probability":0.0066794763702516845},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":4.6553497364986365,"contest_party_id":"K26_NATIVE_LIST::RZP_AND_ZEHUT","display_name_en":"Religious Zionism–Zehut","display_name_he":"הציונות הדתית וזהות","expected_seats":5.642358364982098,"forecast_date":"2026-10-11","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":6,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.8891520769278832,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.11084792307211677,"p_represented":0.8891520769278831,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_religious_zionism_zehut","raw_b5_point_pp":4.741712274969288,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":8.0,"seat_range_display":"4–9","seat_range_high":9,"seat_range_low":4,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":4.762234521477303,"vote_q10_pp":3.1809595915281044,"vote_q2_5_pp":2.457870368683607,"vote_q90_pp":6.54431072579395,"vote_q97_5_pp":7.752437075633386,"zero_seat_probability":0.11084792307211677},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":3.1153946705796183,"contest_party_id":"WINTER_NEW_PARTY","display_name_en":"Amcha Yisrael","display_name_he":"עמך ישראל","expected_seats":1.8460558934777092,"forecast_date":"2026-10-11","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":0,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.3431129576139613,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.6568870423860387,"p_represented":0.3431129576139613,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_amcha_yisrael","raw_b5_point_pp":3.1731891236965937,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":6.0,"seat_range_display":"0, 4–7","seat_range_high":7,"seat_range_low":4,"seat_range_mode":"ZERO_SEPARATED_CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":2.9489222178710723,"vote_q10_pp":1.5239214957664837,"vote_q2_5_pp":1.0966806241302924,"vote_q90_pp":4.667659496442851,"vote_q97_5_pp":5.9298494968584246,"zero_seat_probability":0.6568870423860387},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":0.5926263449995827,"contest_party_id":"K26_NATIVE_LIST::HAREDI_PUBLIC","display_name_en":"Haredi Public","display_name_he":"הציבור החרדי","expected_seats":0.018818746244042645,"forecast_date":"2026-10-11","group_id":"UNCOMMITTED","headline_seats":0,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.0032551889673944068,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.9967448110326056,"p_represented":0.0032551889673943534,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_haredi_public","raw_b5_point_pp":0.6036203021490281,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":0.0,"seat_range_display":"0","seat_range_high":null,"seat_range_low":null,"seat_range_mode":"ZERO_ONLY_RARE_REPRESENTATION","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":0.5509532018876105,"vote_q10_pp":0.10561538694812597,"vote_q2_5_pp":0.05429858999120604,"vote_q90_pp":1.2223386318260854,"vote_q97_5_pp":2.1583144066276723,"zero_seat_probability":0.9967448110326056},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":9.496255939717082,"contest_party_id":"K26_NATIVE_LIST::BEYAHAD_BENNETT","display_name_en":"Beyachad","display_name_he":"ביחד","expected_seats":12.48150744460673,"forecast_date":"2026-10-11","group_id":"CHANGE_CORE","headline_seats":13,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":1.0,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.0,"p_represented":1.0,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_beyachad","raw_b5_point_pp":9.672423320331067,"seat_q10":10.0,"seat_q90":16.0,"seat_range_display":"10–16","seat_range_high":16,"seat_range_low":10,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":9.485680075595194,"vote_q10_pp":7.36370142541253,"vote_q2_5_pp":6.446414556705623,"vote_q90_pp":11.744098077625944,"vote_q97_5_pp":13.16534694532981,"zero_seat_probability":0.0},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":17.11954298996529,"contest_party_id":"YASHAR_GADI_EISENKOT","display_name_en":"Yashar!","display_name_he":"ישר!","expected_seats":23.090720185237565,"forecast_date":"2026-10-11","group_id":"CHANGE_CORE","headline_seats":23,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":1.0,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.0,"p_represented":1.0,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_yashar","raw_b5_point_pp":17.437131844456562,"seat_q10":20.0,"seat_q90":26.0,"seat_range_display":"20–26","seat_range_high":26,"seat_range_low":20,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":17.240467360751676,"vote_q10_pp":15.044198829753967,"vote_q2_5_pp":13.996624410773626,"vote_q90_pp":19.513600377896715,"vote_q97_5_pp":20.93263028093232,"zero_seat_probability":0.0},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":6.636587551468527,"contest_party_id":"YISRAEL_BEITEINU","display_name_en":"Yisrael Beiteinu","display_name_he":"ישראל ביתנו","expected_seats":8.356313285368786,"forecast_date":"2026-10-11","group_id":"CHANGE_CORE","headline_seats":8,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.9981075366235556,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.0018924633764444388,"p_represented":0.9981075366235557,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_yisrael_beiteinu","raw_b5_point_pp":6.759704520153811,"seat_q10":6.0,"seat_q90":11.0,"seat_range_display":"6–11","seat_range_high":11,"seat_range_low":6,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":6.47612454324288,"vote_q10_pp":4.764250445686119,"vote_q2_5_pp":4.053313780088751,"vote_q90_pp":8.30967836917972,"vote_q97_5_pp":9.651972346701246,"zero_seat_probability":0.0018924633764444388},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":7.5500847560611195,"contest_party_id":"THE_DEMOCRATS","display_name_en":"The Democrats","display_name_he":"הדמוקרטים","expected_seats":9.724740198754466,"forecast_date":"2026-10-11","group_id":"CHANGE_CORE","headline_seats":10,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.9999073055227724,"p_below_legal_threshold":9.269447722759286e-05,"p_represented":0.9999073055227725,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_democrats","raw_b5_point_pp":7.690148236166573,"seat_q10":7.0,"seat_q90":12.0,"seat_range_display":"7–12","seat_range_high":12,"seat_range_low":7,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":7.470764460230184,"vote_q10_pp":5.668577192450577,"vote_q2_5_pp":4.918362645372276,"vote_q90_pp":9.390407987792528,"vote_q97_5_pp":10.724760874817628,"zero_seat_probability":9.269447722759286e-05},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":3.9503053370669323,"contest_party_id":"RAAM","display_name_en":"Raam","display_name_he":"רע״ם","expected_seats":3.8259355920516303,"forecast_date":"2026-10-11","group_id":"ARAB_LISTS","headline_seats":5,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.6675033635286445,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.3324966364713555,"p_represented":0.6675033635286444,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_raam","raw_b5_point_pp":4.023588423398455,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":7.0,"seat_range_display":"0, 4–8","seat_range_high":8,"seat_range_low":4,"seat_range_mode":"ZERO_SEPARATED_CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":3.9122376759324635,"vote_q10_pp":2.2740945493584737,"vote_q2_5_pp":1.753513093629502,"vote_q90_pp":5.651321866694959,"vote_q97_5_pp":6.914771286819539,"zero_seat_probability":0.3324966364713555},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":5.64224365367504,"contest_party_id":"HADASH_TAAL_BALAD","display_name_en":"Joint List","display_name_he":"הרשימה המשותפת","expected_seats":7.2491732722379405,"forecast_date":"2026-10-11","group_id":"ARAB_LISTS","headline_seats":7,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.9854550234551475,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.014544976544852492,"p_represented":0.9854550234551475,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_joint_list","raw_b5_point_pp":5.746914304041212,"seat_q10":5.0,"seat_q90":10.0,"seat_range_display":"5–10","seat_range_high":10,"seat_range_low":5,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":5.698147368913883,"vote_q10_pp":4.080454670217147,"vote_q2_5_pp":3.4493458278246187,"vote_q90_pp":7.428592727481614,"vote_q97_5_pp":8.607074480952244,"zero_seat_probability":0.014544976544852492},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":1.2207565749966993,"contest_party_id":"BLUE_WHITE","display_name_en":"Blue and White","display_name_he":"כחול לבן","expected_seats":0.07147988019412264,"forecast_date":"2026-10-11","group_id":"UNCOMMITTED","headline_seats":0,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.012502303782315316,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.9874976962176847,"p_represented":0.012502303782315236,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_blue_white","raw_b5_point_pp":1.2434031306023683,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":0.0,"seat_range_display":"0","seat_range_high":null,"seat_range_low":null,"seat_range_mode":"ZERO_ONLY_RARE_REPRESENTATION","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":1.0967371315461192,"vote_q10_pp":0.3439393800706308,"vote_q2_5_pp":0.210635061711652,"vote_q90_pp":2.1195704103794264,"vote_q97_5_pp":3.0186086565859176,"zero_seat_probability":0.9874976962176847},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":2.562047576916164,"contest_party_id":"K26_NATIVE_LIST::RESERVISTS_AND_NEW_ECONOMIC_PARTY","display_name_en":"Reservists–Economic","display_name_he":"המילואימניקים והכלכלית","expected_seats":1.0401460488392673,"forecast_date":"2026-10-11","group_id":"UNCOMMITTED","headline_seats":0,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.19446880125142485,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.8055311987485752,"p_represented":0.19446880125142474,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_reservists_economic","raw_b5_point_pp":2.609576751940397,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":5.0,"seat_range_display":"0, 4–7","seat_range_high":7,"seat_range_low":4,"seat_range_mode":"ZERO_SEPARATED_CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":2.3542086721525948,"vote_q10_pp":1.0372255675312299,"vote_q2_5_pp":0.7069572725972568,"vote_q90_pp":4.016416069575023,"vote_q97_5_pp":5.32042201357792,"zero_seat_probability":0.8055311987485752},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":17.325179638512996,"contest_party_id":"LIKUD","display_name_en":"Likud","display_name_he":"הליכוד","expected_seats":23.28955,"forecast_date":"2026-10-12","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":24,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":1.0,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.0,"p_represented":1.0,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_likud","raw_b5_point_pp":17.646583309071026,"seat_q10":20.0,"seat_q90":27.0,"seat_range_display":"20–27","seat_range_high":27,"seat_range_low":20,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":17.32521103052722,"vote_q10_pp":14.772842210134783,"vote_q2_5_pp":13.593621485730077,"vote_q90_pp":19.95900491874986,"vote_q97_5_pp":21.589845344984802,"zero_seat_probability":0.0},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":5.674072203137139,"contest_party_id":"SHAS","display_name_en":"Shas","display_name_he":"ש״ס","expected_seats":7.1725,"forecast_date":"2026-10-12","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":7,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.96865,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.03135,"p_represented":0.96865,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_shas","raw_b5_point_pp":5.779333312756207,"seat_q10":5.0,"seat_q90":10.0,"seat_range_display":"5–10","seat_range_high":10,"seat_range_low":5,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":5.673992279269708,"vote_q10_pp":3.8183174346243383,"vote_q2_5_pp":3.1575713913560586,"vote_q90_pp":7.773667431806211,"vote_q97_5_pp":9.332183387751158,"zero_seat_probability":0.03135},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":5.9112369834026435,"contest_party_id":"UNITED_TORAH_JUDAISM","display_name_en":"United Torah Judaism","display_name_he":"יהדות התורה","expected_seats":7.55215,"forecast_date":"2026-10-12","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":8,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.98175,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.01825,"p_represented":0.98175,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_utj","raw_b5_point_pp":6.020897795217872,"seat_q10":5.0,"seat_q90":11.0,"seat_range_display":"5–11","seat_range_high":11,"seat_range_low":5,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":5.91115260169483,"vote_q10_pp":4.051459860157435,"vote_q2_5_pp":3.3738551260534955,"vote_q90_pp":8.003726880370806,"vote_q97_5_pp":9.522356877582277,"zero_seat_probability":0.01825},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":6.148316043002528,"contest_party_id":"OTZMA_YEHUDIT","display_name_en":"Otzma Yehudit","display_name_he":"עוצמה יהודית","expected_seats":7.8833,"forecast_date":"2026-10-12","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":8,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.98445,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.01555,"p_represented":0.98445,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_otzma","raw_b5_point_pp":6.262374966788755,"seat_q10":5.0,"seat_q90":11.0,"seat_range_display":"5–11","seat_range_high":11,"seat_range_low":5,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":6.14841618598401,"vote_q10_pp":4.135493732978851,"vote_q2_5_pp":3.4324352299153795,"vote_q90_pp":8.38960600922568,"vote_q97_5_pp":10.001232932520832,"zero_seat_probability":0.01555},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":4.6553497364986365,"contest_party_id":"K26_NATIVE_LIST::RZP_AND_ZEHUT","display_name_en":"Religious Zionism–Zehut","display_name_he":"הציונות הדתית וזהות","expected_seats":5.26075,"forecast_date":"2026-10-12","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":6,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.8145,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.1855,"p_represented":0.8145,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_religious_zionism_zehut","raw_b5_point_pp":4.741712274969288,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":9.0,"seat_range_display":"4–9","seat_range_high":9,"seat_range_low":4,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":4.655366211175574,"vote_q10_pp":2.858890118500797,"vote_q2_5_pp":2.271713054059273,"vote_q90_pp":6.777262892771299,"vote_q97_5_pp":8.408374159658665,"zero_seat_probability":0.1855},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":3.1153946705796183,"contest_party_id":"WINTER_NEW_PARTY","display_name_en":"Amcha Yisrael","display_name_he":"עמך ישראל","expected_seats":2.1574,"forecast_date":"2026-10-12","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":0,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.37144999999999995,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.62855,"p_represented":0.3715,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_amcha_yisrael","raw_b5_point_pp":3.1731891236965937,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":6.0,"seat_range_display":"0, 4–8","seat_range_high":8,"seat_range_low":4,"seat_range_mode":"ZERO_SEPARATED_CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":3.115297820363765,"vote_q10_pp":1.5288939782790023,"vote_q2_5_pp":1.1246790592839948,"vote_q90_pp":5.121765703247894,"vote_q97_5_pp":6.905698175365064,"zero_seat_probability":0.6285},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":0.5926263449995827,"contest_party_id":"K26_NATIVE_LIST::HAREDI_PUBLIC","display_name_en":"Haredi Public","display_name_he":"הציבור החרדי","expected_seats":0.07305,"forecast_date":"2026-10-12","group_id":"UNCOMMITTED","headline_seats":0,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.012249999999999983,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.98775,"p_represented":0.01225,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_haredi_public","raw_b5_point_pp":0.6036203021490281,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":0.0,"seat_range_display":"0","seat_range_high":null,"seat_range_low":null,"seat_range_mode":"ZERO_ONLY_RARE_REPRESENTATION","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":0.59253887142779,"vote_q10_pp":0.10475828341500319,"vote_q2_5_pp":0.05429654762389818,"vote_q90_pp":1.3024459407126172,"vote_q97_5_pp":2.441170685765225,"zero_seat_probability":0.98775},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":9.496255939717082,"contest_party_id":"K26_NATIVE_LIST::BEYAHAD_BENNETT","display_name_en":"Beyachad","display_name_he":"ביחד","expected_seats":12.5386,"forecast_date":"2026-10-12","group_id":"CHANGE_CORE","headline_seats":13,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":1.0,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.0,"p_represented":1.0,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_beyachad","raw_b5_point_pp":9.672423320331067,"seat_q10":9.0,"seat_q90":16.0,"seat_range_display":"9–16","seat_range_high":16,"seat_range_low":9,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":9.496240739064405,"vote_q10_pp":7.216337926412142,"vote_q2_5_pp":6.294107421813094,"vote_q90_pp":11.954496476375686,"vote_q97_5_pp":13.589369097496114,"zero_seat_probability":0.0},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":17.11954298996529,"contest_party_id":"YASHAR_GADI_EISENKOT","display_name_en":"Yashar!","display_name_he":"ישר!","expected_seats":23.0052,"forecast_date":"2026-10-12","group_id":"CHANGE_CORE","headline_seats":23,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":1.0,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.0,"p_represented":1.0,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_yashar","raw_b5_point_pp":17.437131844456562,"seat_q10":19.0,"seat_q90":27.0,"seat_range_display":"19–27","seat_range_high":27,"seat_range_low":19,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":17.11953563936832,"vote_q10_pp":14.537020410169285,"vote_q2_5_pp":13.331864404852276,"vote_q90_pp":19.847440886485764,"vote_q97_5_pp":21.54546201170037,"zero_seat_probability":0.0},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":6.636587551468527,"contest_party_id":"YISRAEL_BEITEINU","display_name_en":"Yisrael Beiteinu","display_name_he":"ישראל ביתנו","expected_seats":8.58915,"forecast_date":"2026-10-12","group_id":"CHANGE_CORE","headline_seats":9,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.9947,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.0053,"p_represented":0.9947,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_yisrael_beiteinu","raw_b5_point_pp":6.759704520153811,"seat_q10":6.0,"seat_q90":12.0,"seat_range_display":"6–12","seat_range_high":12,"seat_range_low":6,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":6.6366558377358436,"vote_q10_pp":4.599419035337882,"vote_q2_5_pp":3.832475148483793,"vote_q90_pp":8.954605101536531,"vote_q97_5_pp":10.608434307765158,"zero_seat_probability":0.0053},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":7.5500847560611195,"contest_party_id":"THE_DEMOCRATS","display_name_en":"The Democrats","display_name_he":"הדמוקרטים","expected_seats":9.86315,"forecast_date":"2026-10-12","group_id":"CHANGE_CORE","headline_seats":10,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.99975,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.00025,"p_represented":0.99975,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_democrats","raw_b5_point_pp":7.690148236166573,"seat_q10":7.0,"seat_q90":13.0,"seat_range_display":"7–13","seat_range_high":13,"seat_range_low":7,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":7.550162029713606,"vote_q10_pp":5.424065872922771,"vote_q2_5_pp":4.559279773793592,"vote_q90_pp":9.944914417653953,"vote_q97_5_pp":11.522820339523873,"zero_seat_probability":0.00025},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":3.9503053370669323,"contest_party_id":"RAAM","display_name_en":"Raam","display_name_he":"רע״ם","expected_seats":3.773,"forecast_date":"2026-10-12","group_id":"ARAB_LISTS","headline_seats":5,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.6267,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.3733,"p_represented":0.6267,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_raam","raw_b5_point_pp":4.023588423398455,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":8.0,"seat_range_display":"0, 4–8","seat_range_high":8,"seat_range_low":4,"seat_range_mode":"ZERO_SEPARATED_CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":3.9502393880467266,"vote_q10_pp":2.2233910957205696,"vote_q2_5_pp":1.7050005132653279,"vote_q90_pp":6.007491375050355,"vote_q97_5_pp":7.736924649072632,"zero_seat_probability":0.3733},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":5.64224365367504,"contest_party_id":"HADASH_TAAL_BALAD","display_name_en":"Joint List","display_name_he":"הרשימה המשותפת","expected_seats":7.11475,"forecast_date":"2026-10-12","group_id":"ARAB_LISTS","headline_seats":7,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.96455,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.03545,"p_represented":0.96455,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_joint_list","raw_b5_point_pp":5.746914304041212,"seat_q10":5.0,"seat_q90":10.0,"seat_range_display":"5–10","seat_range_high":10,"seat_range_low":5,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":5.642212786013557,"vote_q10_pp":3.768556206852622,"vote_q2_5_pp":3.1050447423745315,"vote_q90_pp":7.80478521571692,"vote_q97_5_pp":9.361266919695057,"zero_seat_probability":0.03545},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":1.2207565749966993,"contest_party_id":"BLUE_WHITE","display_name_en":"Blue and White","display_name_he":"כחול לבן","expected_seats":0.264,"forecast_date":"2026-10-12","group_id":"UNCOMMITTED","headline_seats":0,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.04574999999999996,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.95425,"p_represented":0.04575,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_blue_white","raw_b5_point_pp":1.2434031306023683,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":0.0,"seat_range_display":"0","seat_range_high":null,"seat_range_low":null,"seat_range_mode":"ZERO_ONLY_RARE_REPRESENTATION","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":1.2206687158043246,"vote_q10_pp":0.35627909108733125,"vote_q2_5_pp":0.2141355077539874,"vote_q90_pp":2.404038349548089,"vote_q97_5_pp":3.9649041887232412,"zero_seat_probability":0.95425},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":2.562047576916164,"contest_party_id":"K26_NATIVE_LIST::RESERVISTS_AND_NEW_ECONOMIC_PARTY","display_name_en":"Reservists–Economic","display_name_he":"המילואימניקים והכלכלית","expected_seats":1.46345,"forecast_date":"2026-10-12","group_id":"UNCOMMITTED","headline_seats":0,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.24634999999999996,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.75365,"p_represented":0.24635,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_reservists_economic","raw_b5_point_pp":2.609576751940397,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":6.0,"seat_range_display":"0, 4–9","seat_range_high":9,"seat_range_low":4,"seat_range_mode":"ZERO_SEPARATED_CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":2.5623098638103206,"vote_q10_pp":1.0269369410346936,"vote_q2_5_pp":0.691273042396183,"vote_q90_pp":4.566399380329208,"vote_q97_5_pp":6.682000037882564,"zero_seat_probability":0.75365},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":17.325179638512996,"contest_party_id":"LIKUD","display_name_en":"Likud","display_name_he":"הליכוד","expected_seats":23.654756190652744,"forecast_date":"2026-10-12","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":24,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":1.0,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.0,"p_represented":1.0,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_likud","raw_b5_point_pp":17.646583309071026,"seat_q10":20.0,"seat_q90":27.0,"seat_range_display":"20–27","seat_range_high":27,"seat_range_low":20,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":17.648098642715553,"vote_q10_pp":15.16824046999493,"vote_q2_5_pp":13.975725311271157,"vote_q90_pp":20.20377170097008,"vote_q97_5_pp":21.773069597899415,"zero_seat_probability":0.0},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":5.674072203137139,"contest_party_id":"SHAS","display_name_en":"Shas","display_name_he":"ש״ס","expected_seats":7.563279267947685,"forecast_date":"2026-10-12","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":8,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.989526727841994,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.010473272158005961,"p_represented":0.989526727841994,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_shas","raw_b5_point_pp":5.779333312756207,"seat_q10":5.0,"seat_q90":10.0,"seat_range_display":"5–10","seat_range_high":10,"seat_range_low":5,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":5.915444759745757,"vote_q10_pp":4.2071193709990515,"vote_q2_5_pp":3.532115293480612,"vote_q90_pp":7.812506476075787,"vote_q97_5_pp":9.096773905130792,"zero_seat_probability":0.010473272158005961},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":5.9112369834026435,"contest_party_id":"UNITED_TORAH_JUDAISM","display_name_en":"United Torah Judaism","display_name_he":"יהדות התורה","expected_seats":7.5754271455309645,"forecast_date":"2026-10-12","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":8,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.9934320676886145,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.006567932311385548,"p_represented":0.9934320676886144,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_utj","raw_b5_point_pp":6.020897795217872,"seat_q10":5.0,"seat_q90":10.0,"seat_range_display":"5–10","seat_range_high":10,"seat_range_low":5,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":5.915398789759794,"vote_q10_pp":4.294648599862211,"vote_q2_5_pp":3.668929532508541,"vote_q90_pp":7.655141045284268,"vote_q97_5_pp":8.831028093061304,"zero_seat_probability":0.006567932311385548},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":6.148316043002528,"contest_party_id":"OTZMA_YEHUDIT","display_name_en":"Otzma Yehudit","display_name_he":"עוצמה יהודית","expected_seats":7.868659881662708,"forecast_date":"2026-10-12","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":8,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.9944873645681642,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.005512635431835806,"p_represented":0.9944873645681642,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_otzma","raw_b5_point_pp":6.262374966788755,"seat_q10":6.0,"seat_q90":10.0,"seat_range_display":"6–10","seat_range_high":10,"seat_range_low":6,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":6.1310146484688275,"vote_q10_pp":4.4049952338791165,"vote_q2_5_pp":3.7520190692947595,"vote_q90_pp":7.953151888437224,"vote_q97_5_pp":9.169355692742103,"zero_seat_probability":0.005512635431835806},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":4.6553497364986365,"contest_party_id":"K26_NATIVE_LIST::RZP_AND_ZEHUT","display_name_en":"Religious Zionism–Zehut","display_name_he":"הציונות הדתית וזהות","expected_seats":5.622269756260685,"forecast_date":"2026-10-12","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":6,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.8853629678538715,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.11463703214612855,"p_represented":0.8853629678538715,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_religious_zionism_zehut","raw_b5_point_pp":4.741712274969288,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":8.0,"seat_range_display":"4–9","seat_range_high":9,"seat_range_low":4,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":4.758433567251499,"vote_q10_pp":3.1597426931865105,"vote_q2_5_pp":2.456212282550638,"vote_q90_pp":6.511202207488461,"vote_q97_5_pp":7.725941565554466,"zero_seat_probability":0.11463703214612855},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":3.1153946705796183,"contest_party_id":"WINTER_NEW_PARTY","display_name_en":"Amcha Yisrael","display_name_he":"עמך ישראל","expected_seats":1.8290882539922841,"forecast_date":"2026-10-12","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":0,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.3387572401341846,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.6612427598658154,"p_represented":0.33880182963441263,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_amcha_yisrael","raw_b5_point_pp":3.1731891236965937,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":6.0,"seat_range_display":"0, 4–7","seat_range_high":7,"seat_range_low":4,"seat_range_mode":"ZERO_SEPARATED_CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":2.9470716622990145,"vote_q10_pp":1.518637116376988,"vote_q2_5_pp":1.1336613916368798,"vote_q90_pp":4.672687587358732,"vote_q97_5_pp":6.000234290501401,"zero_seat_probability":0.6611981703655874},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":0.5926263449995827,"contest_party_id":"K26_NATIVE_LIST::HAREDI_PUBLIC","display_name_en":"Haredi Public","display_name_he":"הציבור החרדי","expected_seats":0.016451560177189413,"forecast_date":"2026-10-12","group_id":"UNCOMMITTED","headline_seats":0,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.002793136905184457,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.9972068630948155,"p_represented":0.0027931369051844195,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_haredi_public","raw_b5_point_pp":0.6036203021490281,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":0.0,"seat_range_display":"0","seat_range_high":null,"seat_range_low":null,"seat_range_mode":"ZERO_ONLY_RARE_REPRESENTATION","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":0.5423490258940168,"vote_q10_pp":0.10185759836589832,"vote_q2_5_pp":0.054679936757619785,"vote_q90_pp":1.2169604462579122,"vote_q97_5_pp":2.125307684637625,"zero_seat_probability":0.9972068630948155},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":9.496255939717082,"contest_party_id":"K26_NATIVE_LIST::BEYAHAD_BENNETT","display_name_en":"Beyachad","display_name_he":"ביחד","expected_seats":12.496834623014951,"forecast_date":"2026-10-12","group_id":"CHANGE_CORE","headline_seats":13,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":1.0,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.0,"p_represented":1.0,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_beyachad","raw_b5_point_pp":9.672423320331067,"seat_q10":10.0,"seat_q90":16.0,"seat_range_display":"10–16","seat_range_high":16,"seat_range_low":10,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":9.49857346790876,"vote_q10_pp":7.376037136353115,"vote_q2_5_pp":6.498223159206645,"vote_q90_pp":11.728970033830063,"vote_q97_5_pp":13.159093223045474,"zero_seat_probability":0.0},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":17.11954298996529,"contest_party_id":"YASHAR_GADI_EISENKOT","display_name_en":"Yashar!","display_name_he":"ישר!","expected_seats":23.087561752835576,"forecast_date":"2026-10-12","group_id":"CHANGE_CORE","headline_seats":23,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":1.0,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.0,"p_represented":1.0,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_yashar","raw_b5_point_pp":17.437131844456562,"seat_q10":20.0,"seat_q90":26.0,"seat_range_display":"20–26","seat_range_high":26,"seat_range_low":20,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":17.242890591349617,"vote_q10_pp":15.044938291175592,"vote_q2_5_pp":13.966665721357316,"vote_q90_pp":19.521802834975265,"vote_q97_5_pp":21.01905938014093,"zero_seat_probability":0.0},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":6.636587551468527,"contest_party_id":"YISRAEL_BEITEINU","display_name_en":"Yisrael Beiteinu","display_name_he":"ישראל ביתנו","expected_seats":8.326578614294775,"forecast_date":"2026-10-12","group_id":"CHANGE_CORE","headline_seats":8,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.9980171325290289,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.001982867470971094,"p_represented":0.9980171325290289,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_yisrael_beiteinu","raw_b5_point_pp":6.759704520153811,"seat_q10":6.0,"seat_q90":11.0,"seat_range_display":"6–11","seat_range_high":11,"seat_range_low":6,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":6.460043945966449,"vote_q10_pp":4.7662562111622995,"vote_q2_5_pp":4.025989146230415,"vote_q90_pp":8.28182903978688,"vote_q97_5_pp":9.61128456544285,"zero_seat_probability":0.001982867470971094},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":7.5500847560611195,"contest_party_id":"THE_DEMOCRATS","display_name_en":"The Democrats","display_name_he":"הדמוקרטים","expected_seats":9.740861625848083,"forecast_date":"2026-10-12","group_id":"CHANGE_CORE","headline_seats":10,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.9999568058077237,"p_below_legal_threshold":4.3194192276305283e-05,"p_represented":0.9999568058077237,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_democrats","raw_b5_point_pp":7.690148236166573,"seat_q10":7.0,"seat_q90":12.0,"seat_range_display":"7–12","seat_range_high":12,"seat_range_low":7,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":7.488394645116413,"vote_q10_pp":5.684390909283175,"vote_q2_5_pp":4.931614752145944,"vote_q90_pp":9.420414011633303,"vote_q97_5_pp":10.707208266105413,"zero_seat_probability":4.3194192276305283e-05},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":3.9503053370669323,"contest_party_id":"RAAM","display_name_en":"Raam","display_name_he":"רע״ם","expected_seats":3.888221379023469,"forecast_date":"2026-10-12","group_id":"ARAB_LISTS","headline_seats":5,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.6786300349662098,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.3213699650337903,"p_represented":0.6786300349662097,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_raam","raw_b5_point_pp":4.023588423398455,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":7.0,"seat_range_display":"0, 4–8","seat_range_high":8,"seat_range_low":4,"seat_range_mode":"ZERO_SEPARATED_CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":3.9297009559962763,"vote_q10_pp":2.2909940188244913,"vote_q2_5_pp":1.7439472915455554,"vote_q90_pp":5.681497474101146,"vote_q97_5_pp":6.896235131283637,"zero_seat_probability":0.3213699650337903},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":5.64224365367504,"contest_party_id":"HADASH_TAAL_BALAD","display_name_en":"Joint List","display_name_he":"הרשימה המשותפת","expected_seats":7.226845444124011,"forecast_date":"2026-10-12","group_id":"ARAB_LISTS","headline_seats":7,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.9853709839630377,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.014629016036962332,"p_represented":0.9853709839630377,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_joint_list","raw_b5_point_pp":5.746914304041212,"seat_q10":5.0,"seat_q90":10.0,"seat_range_display":"5–10","seat_range_high":10,"seat_range_low":5,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":5.684563864535079,"vote_q10_pp":4.051533851820133,"vote_q2_5_pp":3.4294788852831366,"vote_q90_pp":7.4724902726002265,"vote_q97_5_pp":8.688248762739349,"zero_seat_probability":0.014629016036962332},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":1.2207565749966993,"contest_party_id":"BLUE_WHITE","display_name_en":"Blue and White","display_name_he":"כחול לבן","expected_seats":0.06791351278659427,"forecast_date":"2026-10-12","group_id":"UNCOMMITTED","headline_seats":0,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.012003251924217806,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.9879967480757822,"p_represented":0.012003251924217754,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_blue_white","raw_b5_point_pp":1.2434031306023683,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":0.0,"seat_range_display":"0","seat_range_high":null,"seat_range_low":null,"seat_range_mode":"ZERO_ONLY_RARE_REPRESENTATION","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":1.1011405792150426,"vote_q10_pp":0.35060207463970294,"vote_q2_5_pp":0.21172763001088118,"vote_q90_pp":2.135864259937797,"vote_q97_5_pp":2.9795296610211226,"zero_seat_probability":0.9879967480757822},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":2.562047576916164,"contest_party_id":"K26_NATIVE_LIST::RESERVISTS_AND_NEW_ECONOMIC_PARTY","display_name_en":"Reservists–Economic","display_name_he":"המילואימניקים והכלכלית","expected_seats":1.0352509918482777,"forecast_date":"2026-10-12","group_id":"UNCOMMITTED","headline_seats":0,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.19313508423953185,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.8068649157604681,"p_represented":0.1931350842395318,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_reservists_economic","raw_b5_point_pp":2.609576751940397,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":5.0,"seat_range_display":"0, 4–7","seat_range_high":7,"seat_range_low":4,"seat_range_mode":"ZERO_SEPARATED_CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":2.336880853777895,"vote_q10_pp":1.0048625772640012,"vote_q2_5_pp":0.6844672039362626,"vote_q90_pp":3.9912205630581536,"vote_q97_5_pp":5.410114725400676,"zero_seat_probability":0.8068649157604681},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":17.325179638512996,"contest_party_id":"LIKUD","display_name_en":"Likud","display_name_he":"הליכוד","expected_seats":23.28015,"forecast_date":"2026-10-13","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":24,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":1.0,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.0,"p_represented":1.0,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_likud","raw_b5_point_pp":17.646583309071026,"seat_q10":20.0,"seat_q90":27.0,"seat_range_display":"20–27","seat_range_high":27,"seat_range_low":20,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":17.32522685345858,"vote_q10_pp":14.775216500747026,"vote_q2_5_pp":13.609396598120698,"vote_q90_pp":20.005997098380856,"vote_q97_5_pp":21.546430435078207,"zero_seat_probability":0.0},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":5.674072203137139,"contest_party_id":"SHAS","display_name_en":"Shas","display_name_he":"ש״ס","expected_seats":7.1663,"forecast_date":"2026-10-13","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":7,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.9671,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.0329,"p_represented":0.9671,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_shas","raw_b5_point_pp":5.779333312756207,"seat_q10":5.0,"seat_q90":10.0,"seat_range_display":"5–10","seat_range_high":10,"seat_range_low":5,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":5.674078291645348,"vote_q10_pp":3.821986305947387,"vote_q2_5_pp":3.1531360453485413,"vote_q90_pp":7.767564471368129,"vote_q97_5_pp":9.232766245516428,"zero_seat_probability":0.0329},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":5.9112369834026435,"contest_party_id":"UNITED_TORAH_JUDAISM","display_name_en":"United Torah Judaism","display_name_he":"יהדות התורה","expected_seats":7.54705,"forecast_date":"2026-10-13","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":8,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.9832,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.0168,"p_represented":0.9832,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_utj","raw_b5_point_pp":6.020897795217872,"seat_q10":5.0,"seat_q90":11.0,"seat_range_display":"5–11","seat_range_high":11,"seat_range_low":5,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":5.911324391951719,"vote_q10_pp":4.031242465676951,"vote_q2_5_pp":3.3825179802339136,"vote_q90_pp":8.030543072234847,"vote_q97_5_pp":9.538863488773467,"zero_seat_probability":0.0168},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":6.148316043002528,"contest_party_id":"OTZMA_YEHUDIT","display_name_en":"Otzma Yehudit","display_name_he":"עוצמה יהודית","expected_seats":7.8843,"forecast_date":"2026-10-13","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":8,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.9854,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.0146,"p_represented":0.9854,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_otzma","raw_b5_point_pp":6.262374966788755,"seat_q10":5.0,"seat_q90":11.0,"seat_range_display":"5–11","seat_range_high":11,"seat_range_low":5,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":6.148317262861657,"vote_q10_pp":4.185023368125259,"vote_q2_5_pp":3.454379903570149,"vote_q90_pp":8.419711804106177,"vote_q97_5_pp":10.058540497540296,"zero_seat_probability":0.0146},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":4.6553497364986365,"contest_party_id":"K26_NATIVE_LIST::RZP_AND_ZEHUT","display_name_en":"Religious Zionism–Zehut","display_name_he":"הציונות הדתית וזהות","expected_seats":5.26575,"forecast_date":"2026-10-13","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":6,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.8170999999999999,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.1829,"p_represented":0.8171,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_religious_zionism_zehut","raw_b5_point_pp":4.741712274969288,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":9.0,"seat_range_display":"4–9","seat_range_high":9,"seat_range_low":4,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":4.655254953152603,"vote_q10_pp":2.8519613556851535,"vote_q2_5_pp":2.259746994343053,"vote_q90_pp":6.760598967053993,"vote_q97_5_pp":8.388171814539728,"zero_seat_probability":0.1829},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":3.1153946705796183,"contest_party_id":"WINTER_NEW_PARTY","display_name_en":"Amcha Yisrael","display_name_he":"עמך ישראל","expected_seats":2.208,"forecast_date":"2026-10-13","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":0,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.3822,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.6178,"p_represented":0.3822,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_amcha_yisrael","raw_b5_point_pp":3.1731891236965937,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":6.0,"seat_range_display":"0, 4–8","seat_range_high":8,"seat_range_low":4,"seat_range_mode":"ZERO_SEPARATED_CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":3.1152496989812875,"vote_q10_pp":1.5090402517661048,"vote_q2_5_pp":1.089228689150294,"vote_q90_pp":5.105314874220009,"vote_q97_5_pp":6.874257823685878,"zero_seat_probability":0.6178},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":0.5926263449995827,"contest_party_id":"K26_NATIVE_LIST::HAREDI_PUBLIC","display_name_en":"Haredi Public","display_name_he":"הציבור החרדי","expected_seats":0.08105,"forecast_date":"2026-10-13","group_id":"UNCOMMITTED","headline_seats":0,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.013399999999999967,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.9866,"p_represented":0.0134,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_haredi_public","raw_b5_point_pp":0.6036203021490281,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":0.0,"seat_range_display":"0","seat_range_high":null,"seat_range_low":null,"seat_range_mode":"ZERO_ONLY_RARE_REPRESENTATION","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":0.592560438617435,"vote_q10_pp":0.10466710448045585,"vote_q2_5_pp":0.053482656374057254,"vote_q90_pp":1.2680796320797811,"vote_q97_5_pp":2.4945495724661244,"zero_seat_probability":0.9866},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":9.496255939717082,"contest_party_id":"K26_NATIVE_LIST::BEYAHAD_BENNETT","display_name_en":"Beyachad","display_name_he":"ביחד","expected_seats":12.53475,"forecast_date":"2026-10-13","group_id":"CHANGE_CORE","headline_seats":13,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":1.0,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.0,"p_represented":1.0,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_beyachad","raw_b5_point_pp":9.672423320331067,"seat_q10":9.0,"seat_q90":16.0,"seat_range_display":"9–16","seat_range_high":16,"seat_range_low":9,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":9.496347199377936,"vote_q10_pp":7.184719883481713,"vote_q2_5_pp":6.2390098905151605,"vote_q90_pp":12.042620473026297,"vote_q97_5_pp":13.686085450716941,"zero_seat_probability":0.0},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":17.11954298996529,"contest_party_id":"YASHAR_GADI_EISENKOT","display_name_en":"Yashar!","display_name_he":"ישר!","expected_seats":22.99585,"forecast_date":"2026-10-13","group_id":"CHANGE_CORE","headline_seats":23,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":1.0,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.0,"p_represented":1.0,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_yashar","raw_b5_point_pp":17.437131844456562,"seat_q10":19.0,"seat_q90":27.0,"seat_range_display":"19–27","seat_range_high":27,"seat_range_low":19,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":17.11957916240392,"vote_q10_pp":14.498439497498762,"vote_q2_5_pp":13.30922850815555,"vote_q90_pp":19.84354408422775,"vote_q97_5_pp":21.537293014686828,"zero_seat_probability":0.0},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":6.636587551468527,"contest_party_id":"YISRAEL_BEITEINU","display_name_en":"Yisrael Beiteinu","display_name_he":"ישראל ביתנו","expected_seats":8.58595,"forecast_date":"2026-10-13","group_id":"CHANGE_CORE","headline_seats":9,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.9937,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.0063,"p_represented":0.9937,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_yisrael_beiteinu","raw_b5_point_pp":6.759704520153811,"seat_q10":6.0,"seat_q90":12.0,"seat_range_display":"6–12","seat_range_high":12,"seat_range_low":6,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":6.636514097760845,"vote_q10_pp":4.570800438206678,"vote_q2_5_pp":3.7719683683122827,"vote_q90_pp":8.939590535091765,"vote_q97_5_pp":10.603061705119938,"zero_seat_probability":0.0063},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":7.5500847560611195,"contest_party_id":"THE_DEMOCRATS","display_name_en":"The Democrats","display_name_he":"הדמוקרטים","expected_seats":9.86465,"forecast_date":"2026-10-13","group_id":"CHANGE_CORE","headline_seats":10,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.99965,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.00035,"p_represented":0.99965,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_democrats","raw_b5_point_pp":7.690148236166573,"seat_q10":7.0,"seat_q90":13.0,"seat_range_display":"7–13","seat_range_high":13,"seat_range_low":7,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":7.549998313280138,"vote_q10_pp":5.3979804846978485,"vote_q2_5_pp":4.571286296848013,"vote_q90_pp":9.938614605518655,"vote_q97_5_pp":11.582968911529859,"zero_seat_probability":0.00035},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":3.9503053370669323,"contest_party_id":"RAAM","display_name_en":"Raam","display_name_he":"רע״ם","expected_seats":3.75915,"forecast_date":"2026-10-13","group_id":"ARAB_LISTS","headline_seats":5,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.62205,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.37795,"p_represented":0.62205,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_raam","raw_b5_point_pp":4.023588423398455,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":8.0,"seat_range_display":"0, 4–9","seat_range_high":9,"seat_range_low":4,"seat_range_mode":"ZERO_SEPARATED_CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":3.9503902545076452,"vote_q10_pp":2.228417530465073,"vote_q2_5_pp":1.7074404606522984,"vote_q90_pp":6.042091474301298,"vote_q97_5_pp":7.87080974775564,"zero_seat_probability":0.37795},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":5.64224365367504,"contest_party_id":"HADASH_TAAL_BALAD","display_name_en":"Joint List","display_name_he":"הרשימה המשותפת","expected_seats":7.113,"forecast_date":"2026-10-13","group_id":"ARAB_LISTS","headline_seats":7,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.96415,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.03585,"p_represented":0.96415,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_joint_list","raw_b5_point_pp":5.746914304041212,"seat_q10":5.0,"seat_q90":10.0,"seat_range_display":"5–10","seat_range_high":10,"seat_range_low":5,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":5.642311075110642,"vote_q10_pp":3.782484600869028,"vote_q2_5_pp":3.1162774983530794,"vote_q90_pp":7.7511331587494166,"vote_q97_5_pp":9.409871335295843,"zero_seat_probability":0.03585},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":1.2207565749966993,"contest_party_id":"BLUE_WHITE","display_name_en":"Blue and White","display_name_he":"כחול לבן","expected_seats":0.26285,"forecast_date":"2026-10-13","group_id":"UNCOMMITTED","headline_seats":0,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.04574999999999996,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.95425,"p_represented":0.04575,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_blue_white","raw_b5_point_pp":1.2434031306023683,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":0.0,"seat_range_display":"0","seat_range_high":null,"seat_range_low":null,"seat_range_mode":"ZERO_ONLY_RARE_REPRESENTATION","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":1.2207093381232605,"vote_q10_pp":0.3526497950510382,"vote_q2_5_pp":0.21028262442191104,"vote_q90_pp":2.4193684664250514,"vote_q97_5_pp":3.984474841986913,"zero_seat_probability":0.95425},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":2.562047576916164,"contest_party_id":"K26_NATIVE_LIST::RESERVISTS_AND_NEW_ECONOMIC_PARTY","display_name_en":"Reservists–Economic","display_name_he":"המילואימניקים והכלכלית","expected_seats":1.4512,"forecast_date":"2026-10-13","group_id":"UNCOMMITTED","headline_seats":0,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.24644999999999995,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.75355,"p_represented":0.24645,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_reservists_economic","raw_b5_point_pp":2.609576751940397,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":6.0,"seat_range_display":"0, 4–9","seat_range_high":9,"seat_range_low":4,"seat_range_mode":"ZERO_SEPARATED_CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":2.5621386687669845,"vote_q10_pp":1.0369328587821791,"vote_q2_5_pp":0.7002466841695492,"vote_q90_pp":4.518810603579072,"vote_q97_5_pp":6.619356368180404,"zero_seat_probability":0.75355},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":17.325179638512996,"contest_party_id":"LIKUD","display_name_en":"Likud","display_name_he":"הליכוד","expected_seats":23.64963599245693,"forecast_date":"2026-10-13","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":24,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":1.0,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.0,"p_represented":1.0,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_likud","raw_b5_point_pp":17.646583309071026,"seat_q10":20.0,"seat_q90":27.0,"seat_range_display":"20–27","seat_range_high":27,"seat_range_low":20,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":17.64595944831543,"vote_q10_pp":15.148080540549802,"vote_q2_5_pp":13.960398679890577,"vote_q90_pp":20.251703696521368,"vote_q97_5_pp":21.71866794625035,"zero_seat_probability":0.0},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":5.674072203137139,"contest_party_id":"SHAS","display_name_en":"Shas","display_name_he":"ש״ס","expected_seats":7.579807023265185,"forecast_date":"2026-10-13","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":8,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.9884378264254756,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.011562173574524428,"p_represented":0.9884378264254755,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_shas","raw_b5_point_pp":5.779333312756207,"seat_q10":5.0,"seat_q90":10.0,"seat_range_display":"5–10","seat_range_high":10,"seat_range_low":5,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":5.929509630402762,"vote_q10_pp":4.197700255924307,"vote_q2_5_pp":3.5334117803078615,"vote_q90_pp":7.796683345667436,"vote_q97_5_pp":9.030775916996436,"zero_seat_probability":0.011562173574524428},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":5.9112369834026435,"contest_party_id":"UNITED_TORAH_JUDAISM","display_name_en":"United Torah Judaism","display_name_he":"יהדות התורה","expected_seats":7.580116946338801,"forecast_date":"2026-10-13","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":8,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.9936368399295019,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.00636316007049814,"p_represented":0.9936368399295019,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_utj","raw_b5_point_pp":6.020897795217872,"seat_q10":5.0,"seat_q90":10.0,"seat_range_display":"5–10","seat_range_high":10,"seat_range_low":5,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":5.92610675426142,"vote_q10_pp":4.308815258761391,"vote_q2_5_pp":3.666983790559585,"vote_q90_pp":7.681411153151677,"vote_q97_5_pp":8.858582663481114,"zero_seat_probability":0.00636316007049814},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":6.148316043002528,"contest_party_id":"OTZMA_YEHUDIT","display_name_en":"Otzma Yehudit","display_name_he":"עוצמה יהודית","expected_seats":7.839454389579918,"forecast_date":"2026-10-13","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":8,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.9948767797231307,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.005123220276869331,"p_represented":0.9948767797231306,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_otzma","raw_b5_point_pp":6.262374966788755,"seat_q10":6.0,"seat_q90":10.0,"seat_range_display":"6–10","seat_range_high":10,"seat_range_low":6,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":6.108962748178802,"vote_q10_pp":4.435034453843469,"vote_q2_5_pp":3.764340295732727,"vote_q90_pp":7.928466329934677,"vote_q97_5_pp":9.22411632575343,"zero_seat_probability":0.005123220276869331},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":4.6553497364986365,"contest_party_id":"K26_NATIVE_LIST::RZP_AND_ZEHUT","display_name_en":"Religious Zionism–Zehut","display_name_he":"הציונות הדתית וזהות","expected_seats":5.600447662386238,"forecast_date":"2026-10-13","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":6,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.8850963841737208,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.11490361582627914,"p_represented":0.8850963841737209,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_religious_zionism_zehut","raw_b5_point_pp":4.741712274969288,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":8.0,"seat_range_display":"4–9","seat_range_high":9,"seat_range_low":4,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":4.744360843292975,"vote_q10_pp":3.151102026709001,"vote_q2_5_pp":2.443348522177385,"vote_q90_pp":6.4928069399163455,"vote_q97_5_pp":7.706522858541453,"zero_seat_probability":0.11490361582627914},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":3.1153946705796183,"contest_party_id":"WINTER_NEW_PARTY","display_name_en":"Amcha Yisrael","display_name_he":"עמך ישראל","expected_seats":1.873578184116941,"forecast_date":"2026-10-13","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":0,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.34689595668812734,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.6531040433118727,"p_represented":0.34689595668812745,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_amcha_yisrael","raw_b5_point_pp":3.1731891236965937,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":6.0,"seat_range_display":"0, 4–7","seat_range_high":7,"seat_range_low":4,"seat_range_mode":"ZERO_SEPARATED_CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":2.944110226643361,"vote_q10_pp":1.4940779464756715,"vote_q2_5_pp":1.100727215302089,"vote_q90_pp":4.683388325447309,"vote_q97_5_pp":5.969644043439247,"zero_seat_probability":0.6531040433118727},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":0.5926263449995827,"contest_party_id":"K26_NATIVE_LIST::HAREDI_PUBLIC","display_name_en":"Haredi Public","display_name_he":"הציבור החרדי","expected_seats":0.01801873519376216,"forecast_date":"2026-10-13","group_id":"UNCOMMITTED","headline_seats":0,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.0030685926290940913,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.9969314073709059,"p_represented":0.0030685926290939837,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_haredi_public","raw_b5_point_pp":0.6036203021490281,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":0.0,"seat_range_display":"0","seat_range_high":null,"seat_range_low":null,"seat_range_mode":"ZERO_ONLY_RARE_REPRESENTATION","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":0.5378333877927224,"vote_q10_pp":0.10166960801868281,"vote_q2_5_pp":0.05174862750661433,"vote_q90_pp":1.178151633047447,"vote_q97_5_pp":2.1293918878660674,"zero_seat_probability":0.9969314073709059},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":9.496255939717082,"contest_party_id":"K26_NATIVE_LIST::BEYAHAD_BENNETT","display_name_en":"Beyachad","display_name_he":"ביחד","expected_seats":12.48836216318906,"forecast_date":"2026-10-13","group_id":"CHANGE_CORE","headline_seats":13,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":1.0,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.0,"p_represented":1.0,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_beyachad","raw_b5_point_pp":9.672423320331067,"seat_q10":10.0,"seat_q90":16.0,"seat_range_display":"10–16","seat_range_high":16,"seat_range_low":10,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":9.495315079060195,"vote_q10_pp":7.33587781430878,"vote_q2_5_pp":6.413438692934835,"vote_q90_pp":11.865320175370345,"vote_q97_5_pp":13.298511018693377,"zero_seat_probability":0.0},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":17.11954298996529,"contest_party_id":"YASHAR_GADI_EISENKOT","display_name_en":"Yashar!","display_name_he":"ישר!","expected_seats":23.1086235394678,"forecast_date":"2026-10-13","group_id":"CHANGE_CORE","headline_seats":23,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":1.0,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.0,"p_represented":1.0,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_yashar","raw_b5_point_pp":17.437131844456562,"seat_q10":20.0,"seat_q90":26.0,"seat_range_display":"20–26","seat_range_high":26,"seat_range_low":20,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":17.259998843945,"vote_q10_pp":15.021788858699574,"vote_q2_5_pp":13.948535603300318,"vote_q90_pp":19.551795074372393,"vote_q97_5_pp":20.983932717954808,"zero_seat_probability":0.0},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":6.636587551468527,"contest_party_id":"YISRAEL_BEITEINU","display_name_en":"Yisrael Beiteinu","display_name_he":"ישראל ביתנו","expected_seats":8.364224630263626,"forecast_date":"2026-10-13","group_id":"CHANGE_CORE","headline_seats":8,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.9979748113576357,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.0020251886423643516,"p_represented":0.9979748113576357,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_yisrael_beiteinu","raw_b5_point_pp":6.759704520153811,"seat_q10":6.0,"seat_q90":11.0,"seat_range_display":"6–11","seat_range_high":11,"seat_range_low":6,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":6.483053353142324,"vote_q10_pp":4.7618756388725565,"vote_q2_5_pp":4.044371851375228,"vote_q90_pp":8.327691772813512,"vote_q97_5_pp":9.667575485582345,"zero_seat_probability":0.0020251886423643516},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":7.5500847560611195,"contest_party_id":"THE_DEMOCRATS","display_name_en":"The Democrats","display_name_he":"הדמוקרטים","expected_seats":9.75682161333875,"forecast_date":"2026-10-13","group_id":"CHANGE_CORE","headline_seats":10,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.9999627473367331,"p_below_legal_threshold":3.725266326694193e-05,"p_represented":0.9999627473367331,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_democrats","raw_b5_point_pp":7.690148236166573,"seat_q10":7.0,"seat_q90":12.0,"seat_range_display":"7–12","seat_range_high":12,"seat_range_low":7,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":7.495324086565152,"vote_q10_pp":5.685759600212,"vote_q2_5_pp":4.920096267741588,"vote_q90_pp":9.430592234419658,"vote_q97_5_pp":10.723343505686461,"zero_seat_probability":3.725266326694193e-05},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":3.9503053370669323,"contest_party_id":"RAAM","display_name_en":"Raam","display_name_he":"רע״ם","expected_seats":3.8315589036621924,"forecast_date":"2026-10-13","group_id":"ARAB_LISTS","headline_seats":5,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.6700187589684322,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.3299812410315678,"p_represented":0.6700187589684321,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_raam","raw_b5_point_pp":4.023588423398455,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":7.0,"seat_range_display":"0, 4–8","seat_range_high":8,"seat_range_low":4,"seat_range_mode":"ZERO_SEPARATED_CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":3.909633582939754,"vote_q10_pp":2.302293159045983,"vote_q2_5_pp":1.7261878380767992,"vote_q90_pp":5.65987674360514,"vote_q97_5_pp":6.943126979214663,"zero_seat_probability":0.3299812410315678},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":5.64224365367504,"contest_party_id":"HADASH_TAAL_BALAD","display_name_en":"Joint List","display_name_he":"הרשימה המשותפת","expected_seats":7.205823568090963,"forecast_date":"2026-10-13","group_id":"ARAB_LISTS","headline_seats":7,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.9843123657514691,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.01568763424853093,"p_represented":0.9843123657514691,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_joint_list","raw_b5_point_pp":5.746914304041212,"seat_q10":5.0,"seat_q90":10.0,"seat_range_display":"5–10","seat_range_high":10,"seat_range_low":5,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":5.670304410792869,"vote_q10_pp":4.06344695376973,"vote_q2_5_pp":3.411320287299837,"vote_q90_pp":7.406109129759468,"vote_q97_5_pp":8.663894205685601,"zero_seat_probability":0.01568763424853093},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":1.2207565749966993,"contest_party_id":"BLUE_WHITE","display_name_en":"Blue and White","display_name_he":"כחול לבן","expected_seats":0.06520099231050172,"forecast_date":"2026-10-13","group_id":"UNCOMMITTED","headline_seats":0,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.011457714634972693,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.9885422853650273,"p_represented":0.011457714634972728,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_blue_white","raw_b5_point_pp":1.2434031306023683,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":0.0,"seat_range_display":"0","seat_range_high":null,"seat_range_low":null,"seat_range_mode":"ZERO_ONLY_RARE_REPRESENTATION","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":1.098395813835395,"vote_q10_pp":0.3499101823482295,"vote_q2_5_pp":0.2087356975939162,"vote_q90_pp":2.1369855734782686,"vote_q97_5_pp":2.9639413253265894,"zero_seat_probability":0.9885422853650273},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":2.562047576916164,"contest_party_id":"K26_NATIVE_LIST::RESERVISTS_AND_NEW_ECONOMIC_PARTY","display_name_en":"Reservists–Economic","display_name_he":"המילואימניקים והכלכלית","expected_seats":1.0383256563393322,"forecast_date":"2026-10-13","group_id":"UNCOMMITTED","headline_seats":0,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.19318190276762115,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.8068180972323789,"p_represented":0.19318190276762123,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_reservists_economic","raw_b5_point_pp":2.609576751940397,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":5.0,"seat_range_display":"0, 4–7","seat_range_high":7,"seat_range_low":4,"seat_range_mode":"ZERO_SEPARATED_CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":2.3511317908318388,"vote_q10_pp":1.0230294804614681,"vote_q2_5_pp":0.6803229052842393,"vote_q90_pp":4.024425087341297,"vote_q97_5_pp":5.414017148181176,"zero_seat_probability":0.8068180972323789},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":17.325179638512996,"contest_party_id":"LIKUD","display_name_en":"Likud","display_name_he":"הליכוד","expected_seats":23.2907,"forecast_date":"2026-10-14","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":24,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":1.0,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.0,"p_represented":1.0,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_likud","raw_b5_point_pp":17.646583309071026,"seat_q10":20.0,"seat_q90":27.0,"seat_range_display":"20–27","seat_range_high":27,"seat_range_low":20,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":17.325347679177302,"vote_q10_pp":14.827650925978034,"vote_q2_5_pp":13.691953586609095,"vote_q90_pp":19.92211615695806,"vote_q97_5_pp":21.555905340044742,"zero_seat_probability":0.0},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":5.674072203137139,"contest_party_id":"SHAS","display_name_en":"Shas","display_name_he":"ש״ס","expected_seats":7.17705,"forecast_date":"2026-10-14","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":7,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.9692,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.0308,"p_represented":0.9692,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_shas","raw_b5_point_pp":5.779333312756207,"seat_q10":5.0,"seat_q90":10.0,"seat_range_display":"5–10","seat_range_high":10,"seat_range_low":5,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":5.67409232401761,"vote_q10_pp":3.8398590347779,"vote_q2_5_pp":3.1681773957900763,"vote_q90_pp":7.72675754692625,"vote_q97_5_pp":9.257602156309616,"zero_seat_probability":0.0308},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":5.9112369834026435,"contest_party_id":"UNITED_TORAH_JUDAISM","display_name_en":"United Torah Judaism","display_name_he":"יהדות התורה","expected_seats":7.55305,"forecast_date":"2026-10-14","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":8,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.98255,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.01745,"p_represented":0.98255,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_utj","raw_b5_point_pp":6.020897795217872,"seat_q10":5.0,"seat_q90":10.0,"seat_range_display":"5–10","seat_range_high":10,"seat_range_low":5,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":5.911217202414602,"vote_q10_pp":4.073430007417119,"vote_q2_5_pp":3.394628785847113,"vote_q90_pp":7.963423327185975,"vote_q97_5_pp":9.529701960827543,"zero_seat_probability":0.01745},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":6.148316043002528,"contest_party_id":"OTZMA_YEHUDIT","display_name_en":"Otzma Yehudit","display_name_he":"עוצמה יהודית","expected_seats":7.8873,"forecast_date":"2026-10-14","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":8,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.98425,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.01575,"p_represented":0.98425,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_otzma","raw_b5_point_pp":6.262374966788755,"seat_q10":5.0,"seat_q90":11.0,"seat_range_display":"5–11","seat_range_high":11,"seat_range_low":5,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":6.148409862464317,"vote_q10_pp":4.179297336974375,"vote_q2_5_pp":3.4457932168410506,"vote_q90_pp":8.387831961005759,"vote_q97_5_pp":9.965171694312893,"zero_seat_probability":0.01575},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":4.6553497364986365,"contest_party_id":"K26_NATIVE_LIST::RZP_AND_ZEHUT","display_name_en":"Religious Zionism–Zehut","display_name_he":"הציונות הדתית וזהות","expected_seats":5.275,"forecast_date":"2026-10-14","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":6,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.8194,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.1806,"p_represented":0.81945,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_religious_zionism_zehut","raw_b5_point_pp":4.741712274969288,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":9.0,"seat_range_display":"4–9","seat_range_high":9,"seat_range_low":4,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":4.655421121862912,"vote_q10_pp":2.872609758951906,"vote_q2_5_pp":2.283130406937393,"vote_q90_pp":6.713037222252817,"vote_q97_5_pp":8.321134663290067,"zero_seat_probability":0.18055},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":3.1153946705796183,"contest_party_id":"WINTER_NEW_PARTY","display_name_en":"Amcha Yisrael","display_name_he":"עמך ישראל","expected_seats":2.1706,"forecast_date":"2026-10-14","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":0,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.37765000000000004,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.62235,"p_represented":0.37765,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_amcha_yisrael","raw_b5_point_pp":3.1731891236965937,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":6.0,"seat_range_display":"0, 4–8","seat_range_high":8,"seat_range_low":4,"seat_range_mode":"ZERO_SEPARATED_CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":3.115303656884512,"vote_q10_pp":1.5329154531184432,"vote_q2_5_pp":1.1073875092564216,"vote_q90_pp":5.048277958729988,"vote_q97_5_pp":6.903463240347711,"zero_seat_probability":0.62235},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":0.5926263449995827,"contest_party_id":"K26_NATIVE_LIST::HAREDI_PUBLIC","display_name_en":"Haredi Public","display_name_he":"הציבור החרדי","expected_seats":0.0686,"forecast_date":"2026-10-14","group_id":"UNCOMMITTED","headline_seats":0,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.011600000000000055,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.9884,"p_represented":0.0116,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_haredi_public","raw_b5_point_pp":0.6036203021490281,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":0.0,"seat_range_display":"0","seat_range_high":null,"seat_range_low":null,"seat_range_mode":"ZERO_ONLY_RARE_REPRESENTATION","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":0.5925869211150315,"vote_q10_pp":0.10834427186323091,"vote_q2_5_pp":0.05487715566851232,"vote_q90_pp":1.2822686521744848,"vote_q97_5_pp":2.4137836942685222,"zero_seat_probability":0.9884},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":9.496255939717082,"contest_party_id":"K26_NATIVE_LIST::BEYAHAD_BENNETT","display_name_en":"Beyachad","display_name_he":"ביחד","expected_seats":12.5423,"forecast_date":"2026-10-14","group_id":"CHANGE_CORE","headline_seats":13,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":1.0,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.0,"p_represented":1.0,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_beyachad","raw_b5_point_pp":9.672423320331067,"seat_q10":9.0,"seat_q90":16.0,"seat_range_display":"9–16","seat_range_high":16,"seat_range_low":9,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":9.49634859766902,"vote_q10_pp":7.238724449214917,"vote_q2_5_pp":6.283460456998406,"vote_q90_pp":11.942393654036204,"vote_q97_5_pp":13.632611400783142,"zero_seat_probability":0.0},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":17.11954298996529,"contest_party_id":"YASHAR_GADI_EISENKOT","display_name_en":"Yashar!","display_name_he":"ישר!","expected_seats":23.0129,"forecast_date":"2026-10-14","group_id":"CHANGE_CORE","headline_seats":23,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":1.0,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.0,"p_represented":1.0,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_yashar","raw_b5_point_pp":17.437131844456562,"seat_q10":19.0,"seat_q90":27.0,"seat_range_display":"19–27","seat_range_high":27,"seat_range_low":19,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":17.11956930196166,"vote_q10_pp":14.561411464667977,"vote_q2_5_pp":13.40718689087121,"vote_q90_pp":19.809561588227183,"vote_q97_5_pp":21.394454161070467,"zero_seat_probability":0.0},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":6.636587551468527,"contest_party_id":"YISRAEL_BEITEINU","display_name_en":"Yisrael Beiteinu","display_name_he":"ישראל ביתנו","expected_seats":8.59705,"forecast_date":"2026-10-14","group_id":"CHANGE_CORE","headline_seats":9,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.9958,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.0042,"p_represented":0.9958,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_yisrael_beiteinu","raw_b5_point_pp":6.759704520153811,"seat_q10":6.0,"seat_q90":12.0,"seat_range_display":"6–12","seat_range_high":12,"seat_range_low":6,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":6.636557358746478,"vote_q10_pp":4.628127318374887,"vote_q2_5_pp":3.854864469308459,"vote_q90_pp":8.904015858308096,"vote_q97_5_pp":10.514734950635646,"zero_seat_probability":0.0042},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":7.5500847560611195,"contest_party_id":"THE_DEMOCRATS","display_name_en":"The Democrats","display_name_he":"הדמוקרטים","expected_seats":9.8711,"forecast_date":"2026-10-14","group_id":"CHANGE_CORE","headline_seats":10,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.9999,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.0001,"p_represented":0.9999,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_democrats","raw_b5_point_pp":7.690148236166573,"seat_q10":7.0,"seat_q90":13.0,"seat_range_display":"7–13","seat_range_high":13,"seat_range_low":7,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":7.550001316483198,"vote_q10_pp":5.421231761719207,"vote_q2_5_pp":4.629081225658344,"vote_q90_pp":9.910918320242203,"vote_q97_5_pp":11.631501046383244,"zero_seat_probability":0.0001},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":3.9503053370669323,"contest_party_id":"RAAM","display_name_en":"Raam","display_name_he":"רע״ם","expected_seats":3.75775,"forecast_date":"2026-10-14","group_id":"ARAB_LISTS","headline_seats":5,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.62585,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.37415,"p_represented":0.62585,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_raam","raw_b5_point_pp":4.023588423398455,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":8.0,"seat_range_display":"0, 4–8","seat_range_high":8,"seat_range_low":4,"seat_range_mode":"ZERO_SEPARATED_CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":3.9502713015279785,"vote_q10_pp":2.260299214549142,"vote_q2_5_pp":1.7360468595114646,"vote_q90_pp":5.981654921094669,"vote_q97_5_pp":7.680108366727369,"zero_seat_probability":0.37415},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":5.64224365367504,"contest_party_id":"HADASH_TAAL_BALAD","display_name_en":"Joint List","display_name_he":"הרשימה המשותפת","expected_seats":7.1292,"forecast_date":"2026-10-14","group_id":"ARAB_LISTS","headline_seats":7,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.9672499999999999,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.03275,"p_represented":0.96725,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_joint_list","raw_b5_point_pp":5.746914304041212,"seat_q10":5.0,"seat_q90":10.0,"seat_range_display":"5–10","seat_range_high":10,"seat_range_low":5,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":5.6421462877731425,"vote_q10_pp":3.806460213764275,"vote_q2_5_pp":3.1421252943658318,"vote_q90_pp":7.711763996467421,"vote_q97_5_pp":9.30651932784303,"zero_seat_probability":0.03275},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":1.2207565749966993,"contest_party_id":"BLUE_WHITE","display_name_en":"Blue and White","display_name_he":"כחול לבן","expected_seats":0.2531,"forecast_date":"2026-10-14","group_id":"UNCOMMITTED","headline_seats":0,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.04420000000000002,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.9558,"p_represented":0.0442,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_blue_white","raw_b5_point_pp":1.2434031306023683,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":0.0,"seat_range_display":"0","seat_range_high":null,"seat_range_low":null,"seat_range_mode":"ZERO_ONLY_RARE_REPRESENTATION","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":1.2207455280541644,"vote_q10_pp":0.3578096111760115,"vote_q2_5_pp":0.21133185657716647,"vote_q90_pp":2.4069087463243894,"vote_q97_5_pp":3.875420358243526,"zero_seat_probability":0.9558},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":2.562047576916164,"contest_party_id":"K26_NATIVE_LIST::RESERVISTS_AND_NEW_ECONOMIC_PARTY","display_name_en":"Reservists–Economic","display_name_he":"המילואימניקים והכלכלית","expected_seats":1.4143,"forecast_date":"2026-10-14","group_id":"UNCOMMITTED","headline_seats":0,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.24309999999999998,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.7569,"p_represented":0.2431,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_reservists_economic","raw_b5_point_pp":2.609576751940397,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":6.0,"seat_range_display":"0, 4–8","seat_range_high":8,"seat_range_low":4,"seat_range_mode":"ZERO_SEPARATED_CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":2.5619815398480705,"vote_q10_pp":1.067996425500563,"vote_q2_5_pp":0.7208631315140829,"vote_q90_pp":4.502989802481487,"vote_q97_5_pp":6.433084632367181,"zero_seat_probability":0.7569},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":17.325179638512996,"contest_party_id":"LIKUD","display_name_en":"Likud","display_name_he":"הליכוד","expected_seats":23.661111870937063,"forecast_date":"2026-10-14","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":24,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":1.0,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.0,"p_represented":1.0,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_likud","raw_b5_point_pp":17.646583309071026,"seat_q10":20.0,"seat_q90":27.0,"seat_range_display":"20–27","seat_range_high":27,"seat_range_low":20,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":17.64604746306924,"vote_q10_pp":15.212577394518977,"vote_q2_5_pp":14.10201142104917,"vote_q90_pp":20.138418866627134,"vote_q97_5_pp":21.7400871841739,"zero_seat_probability":0.0},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":5.674072203137139,"contest_party_id":"SHAS","display_name_en":"Shas","display_name_he":"ש״ס","expected_seats":7.570268515933019,"forecast_date":"2026-10-14","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":8,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.9897943418304139,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.010205658169586124,"p_represented":0.9897943418304138,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_shas","raw_b5_point_pp":5.779333312756207,"seat_q10":5.0,"seat_q90":10.0,"seat_range_display":"5–10","seat_range_high":10,"seat_range_low":5,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":5.915055034331985,"vote_q10_pp":4.214116554977156,"vote_q2_5_pp":3.5604876754491097,"vote_q90_pp":7.757847010411341,"vote_q97_5_pp":9.015981599974156,"zero_seat_probability":0.010205658169586124},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":5.9112369834026435,"contest_party_id":"UNITED_TORAH_JUDAISM","display_name_en":"United Torah Judaism","display_name_he":"יהדות התורה","expected_seats":7.546761877004574,"forecast_date":"2026-10-14","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":8,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.9934389524635836,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.006561047536416399,"p_represented":0.9934389524635835,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_utj","raw_b5_point_pp":6.020897795217872,"seat_q10":5.0,"seat_q90":10.0,"seat_range_display":"5–10","seat_range_high":10,"seat_range_low":5,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":5.892731975883062,"vote_q10_pp":4.316429491222811,"vote_q2_5_pp":3.6895558731676608,"vote_q90_pp":7.589267149318358,"vote_q97_5_pp":8.801594028979464,"zero_seat_probability":0.006561047536416399},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":6.148316043002528,"contest_party_id":"OTZMA_YEHUDIT","display_name_en":"Otzma Yehudit","display_name_he":"עוצמה יהודית","expected_seats":7.867842704820655,"forecast_date":"2026-10-14","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":8,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.9939262683017182,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.006073731698281869,"p_represented":0.9939262683017182,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_otzma","raw_b5_point_pp":6.262374966788755,"seat_q10":6.0,"seat_q90":10.0,"seat_range_display":"6–10","seat_range_high":10,"seat_range_low":6,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":6.126411405936727,"vote_q10_pp":4.465804858471114,"vote_q2_5_pp":3.7784786888102633,"vote_q90_pp":7.940344855117221,"vote_q97_5_pp":9.165049085413628,"zero_seat_probability":0.006073731698281869},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":4.6553497364986365,"contest_party_id":"K26_NATIVE_LIST::RZP_AND_ZEHUT","display_name_en":"Religious Zionism–Zehut","display_name_he":"הציונות הדתית וזהות","expected_seats":5.6232109489946716,"forecast_date":"2026-10-14","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":6,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.8869852419946992,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.11301475800530078,"p_represented":0.8870516008400139,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_religious_zionism_zehut","raw_b5_point_pp":4.741712274969288,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":8.0,"seat_range_display":"4–8","seat_range_high":8,"seat_range_low":4,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":4.754175818063125,"vote_q10_pp":3.164579545888087,"vote_q2_5_pp":2.469214923431324,"vote_q90_pp":6.46427461303015,"vote_q97_5_pp":7.726981051117025,"zero_seat_probability":0.1129483991599861},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":3.1153946705796183,"contest_party_id":"WINTER_NEW_PARTY","display_name_en":"Amcha Yisrael","display_name_he":"עמך ישראל","expected_seats":1.8619933054460072,"forecast_date":"2026-10-14","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":0,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.3474466605478618,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.6525533394521382,"p_represented":0.3474466605478618,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_amcha_yisrael","raw_b5_point_pp":3.1731891236965937,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":6.0,"seat_range_display":"0, 4–7","seat_range_high":7,"seat_range_low":4,"seat_range_mode":"ZERO_SEPARATED_CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":2.9572481772298294,"vote_q10_pp":1.5208229767445345,"vote_q2_5_pp":1.094269452994898,"vote_q90_pp":4.636330860343009,"vote_q97_5_pp":5.904210022018735,"zero_seat_probability":0.6525533394521382},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":0.5926263449995827,"contest_party_id":"K26_NATIVE_LIST::HAREDI_PUBLIC","display_name_en":"Haredi Public","display_name_he":"הציבור החרדי","expected_seats":0.014396058258749346,"forecast_date":"2026-10-14","group_id":"UNCOMMITTED","headline_seats":0,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.0025342089228468367,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.9974657910771532,"p_represented":0.0025342089228468515,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_haredi_public","raw_b5_point_pp":0.6036203021490281,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":0.0,"seat_range_display":"0","seat_range_high":null,"seat_range_low":null,"seat_range_mode":"ZERO_ONLY_RARE_REPRESENTATION","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":0.5477148573734949,"vote_q10_pp":0.1080202666414259,"vote_q2_5_pp":0.05518430998648528,"vote_q90_pp":1.205319006162686,"vote_q97_5_pp":2.103143379744445,"zero_seat_probability":0.9974657910771532},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":9.496255939717082,"contest_party_id":"K26_NATIVE_LIST::BEYAHAD_BENNETT","display_name_en":"Beyachad","display_name_he":"ביחד","expected_seats":12.515440636098456,"forecast_date":"2026-10-14","group_id":"CHANGE_CORE","headline_seats":13,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":1.0,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.0,"p_represented":1.0,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_beyachad","raw_b5_point_pp":9.672423320331067,"seat_q10":10.0,"seat_q90":16.0,"seat_range_display":"10–16","seat_range_high":16,"seat_range_low":10,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":9.505897219438186,"vote_q10_pp":7.406759794222632,"vote_q2_5_pp":6.503996897892898,"vote_q90_pp":11.726874119838481,"vote_q97_5_pp":13.23034185227975,"zero_seat_probability":0.0},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":17.11954298996529,"contest_party_id":"YASHAR_GADI_EISENKOT","display_name_en":"Yashar!","display_name_he":"ישר!","expected_seats":23.10961849150567,"forecast_date":"2026-10-14","group_id":"CHANGE_CORE","headline_seats":23,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":1.0,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.0,"p_represented":1.0,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_yashar","raw_b5_point_pp":17.437131844456562,"seat_q10":20.0,"seat_q90":26.0,"seat_range_display":"20–26","seat_range_high":26,"seat_range_low":20,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":17.242580626662136,"vote_q10_pp":15.032935254897879,"vote_q2_5_pp":14.029730880547017,"vote_q90_pp":19.543271614741556,"vote_q97_5_pp":20.927107449026245,"zero_seat_probability":0.0},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":6.636587551468527,"contest_party_id":"YISRAEL_BEITEINU","display_name_en":"Yisrael Beiteinu","display_name_he":"ישראל ביתנו","expected_seats":8.354635436921445,"forecast_date":"2026-10-14","group_id":"CHANGE_CORE","headline_seats":8,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.9986149040401948,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.0013850959598051297,"p_represented":0.9986149040401948,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_yisrael_beiteinu","raw_b5_point_pp":6.759704520153811,"seat_q10":6.0,"seat_q90":11.0,"seat_range_display":"6–11","seat_range_high":11,"seat_range_low":6,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":6.471537530392289,"vote_q10_pp":4.764302333891748,"vote_q2_5_pp":4.039834435737929,"vote_q90_pp":8.30454743680567,"vote_q97_5_pp":9.57073425046201,"zero_seat_probability":0.0013850959598051297},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":7.5500847560611195,"contest_party_id":"THE_DEMOCRATS","display_name_en":"The Democrats","display_name_he":"הדמוקרטים","expected_seats":9.73803574942383,"forecast_date":"2026-10-14","group_id":"CHANGE_CORE","headline_seats":10,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.9999777282662325,"p_below_legal_threshold":2.2271733767411714e-05,"p_represented":0.9999777282662325,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_democrats","raw_b5_point_pp":7.690148236166573,"seat_q10":7.0,"seat_q90":12.0,"seat_range_display":"7–12","seat_range_high":12,"seat_range_low":7,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":7.478438222821226,"vote_q10_pp":5.696340134197571,"vote_q2_5_pp":4.936472850927707,"vote_q90_pp":9.377780776087825,"vote_q97_5_pp":10.76540698298097,"zero_seat_probability":2.2271733767411714e-05},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":3.9503053370669323,"contest_party_id":"RAAM","display_name_en":"Raam","display_name_he":"רע״ם","expected_seats":3.823283467226796,"forecast_date":"2026-10-14","group_id":"ARAB_LISTS","headline_seats":5,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.6697627088872808,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.3302372911127192,"p_represented":0.6697627088872807,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_raam","raw_b5_point_pp":4.023588423398455,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":7.0,"seat_range_display":"0, 4–8","seat_range_high":8,"seat_range_low":4,"seat_range_mode":"ZERO_SEPARATED_CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":3.9147436208937787,"vote_q10_pp":2.332551112689474,"vote_q2_5_pp":1.780096014740688,"vote_q90_pp":5.631046176441826,"vote_q97_5_pp":6.87203303829886,"zero_seat_probability":0.3302372911127192},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":5.64224365367504,"contest_party_id":"HADASH_TAAL_BALAD","display_name_en":"Joint List","display_name_he":"הרשימה המשותפת","expected_seats":7.228066113234255,"forecast_date":"2026-10-14","group_id":"ARAB_LISTS","headline_seats":7,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.9860003136058937,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.0139996863941063,"p_represented":0.9860003136058937,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_joint_list","raw_b5_point_pp":5.746914304041212,"seat_q10":5.0,"seat_q90":10.0,"seat_range_display":"5–10","seat_range_high":10,"seat_range_low":5,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":5.678236290880735,"vote_q10_pp":4.0789079970889315,"vote_q2_5_pp":3.4511604186809643,"vote_q90_pp":7.395763692256393,"vote_q97_5_pp":8.604431469582234,"zero_seat_probability":0.0139996863941063},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":1.2207565749966993,"contest_party_id":"BLUE_WHITE","display_name_en":"Blue and White","display_name_he":"כחול לבן","expected_seats":0.06547899209604531,"forecast_date":"2026-10-14","group_id":"UNCOMMITTED","headline_seats":0,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.011478702721934408,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.9885212972780656,"p_represented":0.011478702721934322,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_blue_white","raw_b5_point_pp":1.2434031306023683,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":0.0,"seat_range_display":"0","seat_range_high":null,"seat_range_low":null,"seat_range_mode":"ZERO_ONLY_RARE_REPRESENTATION","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":1.1109202363779145,"vote_q10_pp":0.35581130104233777,"vote_q2_5_pp":0.2113313673167331,"vote_q90_pp":2.172788159500003,"vote_q97_5_pp":2.9751367253915264,"zero_seat_probability":0.9885212972780656},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":2.562047576916164,"contest_party_id":"K26_NATIVE_LIST::RESERVISTS_AND_NEW_ECONOMIC_PARTY","display_name_en":"Reservists–Economic","display_name_he":"המילואימניקים והכלכלית","expected_seats":1.0198558320987572,"forecast_date":"2026-10-14","group_id":"UNCOMMITTED","headline_seats":0,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.1913765209989592,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.8086234790010408,"p_represented":0.19137652099895913,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_reservists_economic","raw_b5_point_pp":2.609576751940397,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":5.0,"seat_range_display":"0, 4–7","seat_range_high":7,"seat_range_low":4,"seat_range_mode":"ZERO_SEPARATED_CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":2.3582615206462663,"vote_q10_pp":1.0486620975489032,"vote_q2_5_pp":0.7144033158381514,"vote_q90_pp":3.9989836853639966,"vote_q97_5_pp":5.359312330723724,"zero_seat_probability":0.8086234790010408},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":17.325179638512996,"contest_party_id":"LIKUD","display_name_en":"Likud","display_name_he":"הליכוד","expected_seats":23.28255,"forecast_date":"2026-10-15","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":24,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":1.0,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.0,"p_represented":1.0,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_likud","raw_b5_point_pp":17.646583309071026,"seat_q10":20.0,"seat_q90":27.0,"seat_range_display":"20–27","seat_range_high":27,"seat_range_low":20,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":17.325233295163017,"vote_q10_pp":14.893397310829767,"vote_q2_5_pp":13.702620797710445,"vote_q90_pp":19.860482390996484,"vote_q97_5_pp":21.316667166115245,"zero_seat_probability":0.0},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":5.674072203137139,"contest_party_id":"SHAS","display_name_en":"Shas","display_name_he":"ש״ס","expected_seats":7.1897,"forecast_date":"2026-10-15","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":7,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.97345,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.02655,"p_represented":0.97345,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_shas","raw_b5_point_pp":5.779333312756207,"seat_q10":5.0,"seat_q90":10.0,"seat_range_display":"5–10","seat_range_high":10,"seat_range_low":5,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":5.674171467063058,"vote_q10_pp":3.8725547755733816,"vote_q2_5_pp":3.2286978175393766,"vote_q90_pp":7.67956530020914,"vote_q97_5_pp":9.127813473551845,"zero_seat_probability":0.02655},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":5.9112369834026435,"contest_party_id":"UNITED_TORAH_JUDAISM","display_name_en":"United Torah Judaism","display_name_he":"יהדות התורה","expected_seats":7.5636,"forecast_date":"2026-10-15","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":8,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.98675,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.01325,"p_represented":0.98675,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_utj","raw_b5_point_pp":6.020897795217872,"seat_q10":5.0,"seat_q90":10.0,"seat_range_display":"5–10","seat_range_high":10,"seat_range_low":5,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":5.911152673027306,"vote_q10_pp":4.136584230219978,"vote_q2_5_pp":3.470482135639592,"vote_q90_pp":7.90848117188824,"vote_q97_5_pp":9.389240075534717,"zero_seat_probability":0.01325},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":6.148316043002528,"contest_party_id":"OTZMA_YEHUDIT","display_name_en":"Otzma Yehudit","display_name_he":"עוצמה יהודית","expected_seats":7.89035,"forecast_date":"2026-10-15","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":8,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.9878,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.0122,"p_represented":0.9878,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_otzma","raw_b5_point_pp":6.262374966788755,"seat_q10":5.0,"seat_q90":11.0,"seat_range_display":"5–11","seat_range_high":11,"seat_range_low":5,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":6.148308096647195,"vote_q10_pp":4.215235635911731,"vote_q2_5_pp":3.517683178721343,"vote_q90_pp":8.292491499132533,"vote_q97_5_pp":9.862517220409613,"zero_seat_probability":0.0122},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":4.6553497364986365,"contest_party_id":"K26_NATIVE_LIST::RZP_AND_ZEHUT","display_name_en":"Religious Zionism–Zehut","display_name_he":"הציונות הדתית וזהות","expected_seats":5.31115,"forecast_date":"2026-10-15","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":6,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.8333,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.1667,"p_represented":0.8333,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_religious_zionism_zehut","raw_b5_point_pp":4.741712274969288,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":9.0,"seat_range_display":"4–9","seat_range_high":9,"seat_range_low":4,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":4.655377643255575,"vote_q10_pp":2.9490879385138506,"vote_q2_5_pp":2.3507954075819817,"vote_q90_pp":6.6441320401488655,"vote_q97_5_pp":8.269612577656693,"zero_seat_probability":0.1667},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":3.1153946705796183,"contest_party_id":"WINTER_NEW_PARTY","display_name_en":"Amcha Yisrael","display_name_he":"עמך ישראל","expected_seats":2.16475,"forecast_date":"2026-10-15","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":0,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.38234999999999997,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.61765,"p_represented":0.38235,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_amcha_yisrael","raw_b5_point_pp":3.1731891236965937,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":6.0,"seat_range_display":"0, 4–8","seat_range_high":8,"seat_range_low":4,"seat_range_mode":"ZERO_SEPARATED_CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":3.1152931843828653,"vote_q10_pp":1.5783971412471371,"vote_q2_5_pp":1.1484382949997987,"vote_q90_pp":5.011811490531479,"vote_q97_5_pp":6.704810891283732,"zero_seat_probability":0.61765},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":0.5926263449995827,"contest_party_id":"K26_NATIVE_LIST::HAREDI_PUBLIC","display_name_en":"Haredi Public","display_name_he":"הציבור החרדי","expected_seats":0.06365,"forecast_date":"2026-10-15","group_id":"UNCOMMITTED","headline_seats":0,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.010950000000000015,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.98905,"p_represented":0.01095,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_haredi_public","raw_b5_point_pp":0.6036203021490281,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":0.0,"seat_range_display":"0","seat_range_high":null,"seat_range_low":null,"seat_range_mode":"ZERO_ONLY_RARE_REPRESENTATION","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":0.5926019911038596,"vote_q10_pp":0.11333706007313112,"vote_q2_5_pp":0.05882002168560335,"vote_q90_pp":1.2692167636568883,"vote_q97_5_pp":2.4210533512383856,"zero_seat_probability":0.98905},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":9.496255939717082,"contest_party_id":"K26_NATIVE_LIST::BEYAHAD_BENNETT","display_name_en":"Beyachad","display_name_he":"ביחד","expected_seats":12.53485,"forecast_date":"2026-10-15","group_id":"CHANGE_CORE","headline_seats":13,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":1.0,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.0,"p_represented":1.0,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_beyachad","raw_b5_point_pp":9.672423320331067,"seat_q10":9.0,"seat_q90":16.0,"seat_range_display":"9–16","seat_range_high":16,"seat_range_low":9,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":9.496248580261343,"vote_q10_pp":7.2886039432301555,"vote_q2_5_pp":6.376442664398434,"vote_q90_pp":11.883768731886116,"vote_q97_5_pp":13.471908610279574,"zero_seat_probability":0.0},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":17.11954298996529,"contest_party_id":"YASHAR_GADI_EISENKOT","display_name_en":"Yashar!","display_name_he":"ישר!","expected_seats":22.99385,"forecast_date":"2026-10-15","group_id":"CHANGE_CORE","headline_seats":23,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":1.0,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.0,"p_represented":1.0,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_yashar","raw_b5_point_pp":17.437131844456562,"seat_q10":19.0,"seat_q90":27.0,"seat_range_display":"19–27","seat_range_high":27,"seat_range_low":19,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":17.11961638060967,"vote_q10_pp":14.62003495121669,"vote_q2_5_pp":13.467068402164792,"vote_q90_pp":19.70886833080622,"vote_q97_5_pp":21.291452948621973,"zero_seat_probability":0.0},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":6.636587551468527,"contest_party_id":"YISRAEL_BEITEINU","display_name_en":"Yisrael Beiteinu","display_name_he":"ישראל ביתנו","expected_seats":8.5928,"forecast_date":"2026-10-15","group_id":"CHANGE_CORE","headline_seats":9,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.9962,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.0038,"p_represented":0.9962,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_yisrael_beiteinu","raw_b5_point_pp":6.759704520153811,"seat_q10":6.0,"seat_q90":12.0,"seat_range_display":"6–12","seat_range_high":12,"seat_range_low":6,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":6.636636521131451,"vote_q10_pp":4.678189854591404,"vote_q2_5_pp":3.941606299973414,"vote_q90_pp":8.8389002195383,"vote_q97_5_pp":10.400595702654693,"zero_seat_probability":0.0038},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":7.5500847560611195,"contest_party_id":"THE_DEMOCRATS","display_name_en":"The Democrats","display_name_he":"הדמוקרטים","expected_seats":9.8649,"forecast_date":"2026-10-15","group_id":"CHANGE_CORE","headline_seats":10,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.9998,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.0002,"p_represented":0.9998,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_democrats","raw_b5_point_pp":7.690148236166573,"seat_q10":7.0,"seat_q90":13.0,"seat_range_display":"7–13","seat_range_high":13,"seat_range_low":7,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":7.550249168844265,"vote_q10_pp":5.4833466003485665,"vote_q2_5_pp":4.6798245834254955,"vote_q90_pp":9.894244550746564,"vote_q97_5_pp":11.517251217850372,"zero_seat_probability":0.0002},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":3.9503053370669323,"contest_party_id":"RAAM","display_name_en":"Raam","display_name_he":"רע״ם","expected_seats":3.7787,"forecast_date":"2026-10-15","group_id":"ARAB_LISTS","headline_seats":5,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.636,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.364,"p_represented":0.636,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_raam","raw_b5_point_pp":4.023588423398455,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":8.0,"seat_range_display":"0, 4–8","seat_range_high":8,"seat_range_low":4,"seat_range_mode":"ZERO_SEPARATED_CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":3.9501793786256494,"vote_q10_pp":2.299732602649534,"vote_q2_5_pp":1.7739623394067978,"vote_q90_pp":5.904758041864345,"vote_q97_5_pp":7.52512553304446,"zero_seat_probability":0.364},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":5.64224365367504,"contest_party_id":"HADASH_TAAL_BALAD","display_name_en":"Joint List","display_name_he":"הרשימה המשותפת","expected_seats":7.1291,"forecast_date":"2026-10-15","group_id":"ARAB_LISTS","headline_seats":7,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.9701,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.0299,"p_represented":0.9701,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_joint_list","raw_b5_point_pp":5.746914304041212,"seat_q10":5.0,"seat_q90":10.0,"seat_range_display":"5–10","seat_range_high":10,"seat_range_low":5,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":5.642172361201313,"vote_q10_pp":3.841710556925268,"vote_q2_5_pp":3.1715262488827722,"vote_q90_pp":7.694730103463048,"vote_q97_5_pp":9.181053663681208,"zero_seat_probability":0.0299},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":1.2207565749966993,"contest_party_id":"BLUE_WHITE","display_name_en":"Blue and White","display_name_he":"כחול לבן","expected_seats":0.24295,"forecast_date":"2026-10-15","group_id":"UNCOMMITTED","headline_seats":0,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.04300000000000004,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.957,"p_represented":0.043,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_blue_white","raw_b5_point_pp":1.2434031306023683,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":0.0,"seat_range_display":"0","seat_range_high":null,"seat_range_low":null,"seat_range_mode":"ZERO_ONLY_RARE_REPRESENTATION","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":1.2206679963558043,"vote_q10_pp":0.36782683443501496,"vote_q2_5_pp":0.21856178015902583,"vote_q90_pp":2.3739274020095302,"vote_q97_5_pp":3.842168731253138,"zero_seat_probability":0.957},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":2.562047576916164,"contest_party_id":"K26_NATIVE_LIST::RESERVISTS_AND_NEW_ECONOMIC_PARTY","display_name_en":"Reservists–Economic","display_name_he":"המילואימניקים והכלכלית","expected_seats":1.3971,"forecast_date":"2026-10-15","group_id":"UNCOMMITTED","headline_seats":0,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.24105,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.75895,"p_represented":0.24105,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_reservists_economic","raw_b5_point_pp":2.609576751940397,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":6.0,"seat_range_display":"0, 4–8","seat_range_high":8,"seat_range_low":4,"seat_range_mode":"ZERO_SEPARATED_CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":2.562091262327625,"vote_q10_pp":1.09414547894782,"vote_q2_5_pp":0.7199912594603816,"vote_q90_pp":4.42887441655148,"vote_q97_5_pp":6.476327156725392,"zero_seat_probability":0.75895},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":17.325179638512996,"contest_party_id":"LIKUD","display_name_en":"Likud","display_name_he":"הליכוד","expected_seats":23.621391917681034,"forecast_date":"2026-10-15","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":24,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":1.0,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.0,"p_represented":1.0,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_likud","raw_b5_point_pp":17.646583309071026,"seat_q10":20.0,"seat_q90":27.0,"seat_range_display":"20–27","seat_range_high":27,"seat_range_low":20,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":17.618221012119207,"vote_q10_pp":15.207112545926538,"vote_q2_5_pp":14.093173806938735,"vote_q90_pp":20.10632748935044,"vote_q97_5_pp":21.48969951665473,"zero_seat_probability":0.0},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":5.674072203137139,"contest_party_id":"SHAS","display_name_en":"Shas","display_name_he":"ש״ס","expected_seats":7.5641589351365175,"forecast_date":"2026-10-15","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":8,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.9903394471888517,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.009660552811148325,"p_represented":0.9903394471888517,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_shas","raw_b5_point_pp":5.779333312756207,"seat_q10":5.0,"seat_q90":10.0,"seat_range_display":"5–10","seat_range_high":10,"seat_range_low":5,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":5.912285334656897,"vote_q10_pp":4.2215384339522455,"vote_q2_5_pp":3.590317303163241,"vote_q90_pp":7.758865238103715,"vote_q97_5_pp":8.950520037743807,"zero_seat_probability":0.009660552811148325},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":5.9112369834026435,"contest_party_id":"UNITED_TORAH_JUDAISM","display_name_en":"United Torah Judaism","display_name_he":"יהדות התורה","expected_seats":7.561769666373957,"forecast_date":"2026-10-15","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":8,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.9946955885124836,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.005304411487516372,"p_represented":0.9946955885124835,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_utj","raw_b5_point_pp":6.020897795217872,"seat_q10":5.0,"seat_q90":10.0,"seat_range_display":"6–10","seat_range_high":10,"seat_range_low":6,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":5.901556603633841,"vote_q10_pp":4.361871577257057,"vote_q2_5_pp":3.721660887924505,"vote_q90_pp":7.599992914766592,"vote_q97_5_pp":8.711729069451797,"zero_seat_probability":0.005304411487516372},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":6.148316043002528,"contest_party_id":"OTZMA_YEHUDIT","display_name_en":"Otzma Yehudit","display_name_he":"עוצמה יהודית","expected_seats":7.873285255389876,"forecast_date":"2026-10-15","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":8,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.99586594274701,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.00413405725299001,"p_represented":0.99586594274701,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_otzma","raw_b5_point_pp":6.262374966788755,"seat_q10":6.0,"seat_q90":10.0,"seat_range_display":"6–10","seat_range_high":10,"seat_range_low":6,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":6.131523822504792,"vote_q10_pp":4.485141526550626,"vote_q2_5_pp":3.8258117438624897,"vote_q90_pp":7.898265999361019,"vote_q97_5_pp":9.104023216259765,"zero_seat_probability":0.00413405725299001},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":4.6553497364986365,"contest_party_id":"K26_NATIVE_LIST::RZP_AND_ZEHUT","display_name_en":"Religious Zionism–Zehut","display_name_he":"הציונות הדתית וזהות","expected_seats":5.624347216717299,"forecast_date":"2026-10-15","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":6,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.8955711289677716,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.10442887103222845,"p_represented":0.8955711289677715,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_religious_zionism_zehut","raw_b5_point_pp":4.741712274969288,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":8.0,"seat_range_display":"4–8","seat_range_high":8,"seat_range_low":4,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":4.73680592160424,"vote_q10_pp":3.219245833788631,"vote_q2_5_pp":2.503863611984242,"vote_q90_pp":6.406097120969203,"vote_q97_5_pp":7.63731112902844,"zero_seat_probability":0.10442887103222845},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":3.1153946705796183,"contest_party_id":"WINTER_NEW_PARTY","display_name_en":"Amcha Yisrael","display_name_he":"עמך ישראל","expected_seats":1.8742814894335185,"forecast_date":"2026-10-15","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":0,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.3510031155148948,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.6489968844851052,"p_represented":0.3510031155148948,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_amcha_yisrael","raw_b5_point_pp":3.1731891236965937,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":6.0,"seat_range_display":"0, 4–7","seat_range_high":7,"seat_range_low":4,"seat_range_mode":"ZERO_SEPARATED_CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":2.96950532065773,"vote_q10_pp":1.5665417512213506,"vote_q2_5_pp":1.144739886591365,"vote_q90_pp":4.639509926776856,"vote_q97_5_pp":5.884345869637292,"zero_seat_probability":0.6489968844851052},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":0.5926263449995827,"contest_party_id":"K26_NATIVE_LIST::HAREDI_PUBLIC","display_name_en":"Haredi Public","display_name_he":"הציבור החרדי","expected_seats":0.013984507476919678,"forecast_date":"2026-10-15","group_id":"UNCOMMITTED","headline_seats":0,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.0023879249665823554,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.9976120750334176,"p_represented":0.0023879249665822782,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_haredi_public","raw_b5_point_pp":0.6036203021490281,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":0.0,"seat_range_display":"0","seat_range_high":null,"seat_range_low":null,"seat_range_mode":"ZERO_ONLY_RARE_REPRESENTATION","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":0.5519614993067457,"vote_q10_pp":0.1111264690599059,"vote_q2_5_pp":0.0578489081394491,"vote_q90_pp":1.1978529266060098,"vote_q97_5_pp":2.1433372325836397,"zero_seat_probability":0.9976120750334176},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":9.496255939717082,"contest_party_id":"K26_NATIVE_LIST::BEYAHAD_BENNETT","display_name_en":"Beyachad","display_name_he":"ביחד","expected_seats":12.499829570603758,"forecast_date":"2026-10-15","group_id":"CHANGE_CORE","headline_seats":13,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":1.0,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.0,"p_represented":1.0,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_beyachad","raw_b5_point_pp":9.672423320331067,"seat_q10":10.0,"seat_q90":16.0,"seat_range_display":"10–16","seat_range_high":16,"seat_range_low":10,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":9.499041521299446,"vote_q10_pp":7.43037156327035,"vote_q2_5_pp":6.550550753683938,"vote_q90_pp":11.713756649527035,"vote_q97_5_pp":13.09969754920023,"zero_seat_probability":0.0},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":17.11954298996529,"contest_party_id":"YASHAR_GADI_EISENKOT","display_name_en":"Yashar!","display_name_he":"ישר!","expected_seats":23.08203051718177,"forecast_date":"2026-10-15","group_id":"CHANGE_CORE","headline_seats":23,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":1.0,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.0,"p_represented":1.0,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_yashar","raw_b5_point_pp":17.437131844456562,"seat_q10":20.0,"seat_q90":26.0,"seat_range_display":"20–26","seat_range_high":26,"seat_range_low":20,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":17.231457991576644,"vote_q10_pp":15.095813367422638,"vote_q2_5_pp":14.088918174649145,"vote_q90_pp":19.43546579974171,"vote_q97_5_pp":20.816327506112184,"zero_seat_probability":0.0},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":6.636587551468527,"contest_party_id":"YISRAEL_BEITEINU","display_name_en":"Yisrael Beiteinu","display_name_he":"ישראל ביתנו","expected_seats":8.34535452854979,"forecast_date":"2026-10-15","group_id":"CHANGE_CORE","headline_seats":8,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.9986620807470358,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.0013379192529642538,"p_represented":0.9986620807470357,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_yisrael_beiteinu","raw_b5_point_pp":6.759704520153811,"seat_q10":6.0,"seat_q90":11.0,"seat_range_display":"6–11","seat_range_high":11,"seat_range_low":6,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":6.469360275314251,"vote_q10_pp":4.791400989572309,"vote_q2_5_pp":4.150859461448421,"vote_q90_pp":8.278683928214589,"vote_q97_5_pp":9.51039540197915,"zero_seat_probability":0.0013379192529642538},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":7.5500847560611195,"contest_party_id":"THE_DEMOCRATS","display_name_en":"The Democrats","display_name_he":"הדמוקרטים","expected_seats":9.734138021357158,"forecast_date":"2026-10-15","group_id":"CHANGE_CORE","headline_seats":10,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.9999621370956425,"p_below_legal_threshold":3.786290435753134e-05,"p_represented":0.9999621370956424,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_democrats","raw_b5_point_pp":7.690148236166573,"seat_q10":7.0,"seat_q90":12.0,"seat_range_display":"7–12","seat_range_high":12,"seat_range_low":7,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":7.477714637872787,"vote_q10_pp":5.737967246682131,"vote_q2_5_pp":4.962602896491881,"vote_q90_pp":9.348580057607393,"vote_q97_5_pp":10.679329624102424,"zero_seat_probability":3.786290435753134e-05},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":3.9503053370669323,"contest_party_id":"RAAM","display_name_en":"Raam","display_name_he":"רע״ם","expected_seats":3.8969257575893286,"forecast_date":"2026-10-15","group_id":"ARAB_LISTS","headline_seats":5,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.6841652271111157,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.3158347728888843,"p_represented":0.6841652271111156,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_raam","raw_b5_point_pp":4.023588423398455,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":7.0,"seat_range_display":"0, 4–8","seat_range_high":8,"seat_range_low":4,"seat_range_mode":"ZERO_SEPARATED_CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":3.93686365102619,"vote_q10_pp":2.374574897022453,"vote_q2_5_pp":1.820831602608713,"vote_q90_pp":5.610047143080987,"vote_q97_5_pp":6.799838502734156,"zero_seat_probability":0.3158347728888843},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":5.64224365367504,"contest_party_id":"HADASH_TAAL_BALAD","display_name_en":"Joint List","display_name_he":"הרשימה המשותפת","expected_seats":7.233539181412356,"forecast_date":"2026-10-15","group_id":"ARAB_LISTS","headline_seats":7,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.9877412057410239,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.012258794258976108,"p_represented":0.987741205741024,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_joint_list","raw_b5_point_pp":5.746914304041212,"seat_q10":5.0,"seat_q90":10.0,"seat_range_display":"5–10","seat_range_high":10,"seat_range_low":5,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":5.6852837231922155,"vote_q10_pp":4.103046996136239,"vote_q2_5_pp":3.4749540344640333,"vote_q90_pp":7.406137947648676,"vote_q97_5_pp":8.540827825497745,"zero_seat_probability":0.012258794258976108},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":1.2207565749966993,"contest_party_id":"BLUE_WHITE","display_name_en":"Blue and White","display_name_he":"כחול לבן","expected_seats":0.06325087105674726,"forecast_date":"2026-10-15","group_id":"UNCOMMITTED","headline_seats":0,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.011203005800348276,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.9887969941996517,"p_represented":0.011203005800348241,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_blue_white","raw_b5_point_pp":1.2434031306023683,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":0.0,"seat_range_display":"0","seat_range_high":null,"seat_range_low":null,"seat_range_mode":"ZERO_ONLY_RARE_REPRESENTATION","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":1.1128564622115278,"vote_q10_pp":0.3615780049886658,"vote_q2_5_pp":0.21575373259373956,"vote_q90_pp":2.14538670816559,"vote_q97_5_pp":2.9443338117243805,"zero_seat_probability":0.9887969941996517},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":2.562047576916164,"contest_party_id":"K26_NATIVE_LIST::RESERVISTS_AND_NEW_ECONOMIC_PARTY","display_name_en":"Reservists–Economic","display_name_he":"המילואימניקים והכלכלית","expected_seats":1.011712564039967,"forecast_date":"2026-10-15","group_id":"UNCOMMITTED","headline_seats":0,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.19118836644638426,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.8088116335536157,"p_represented":0.19118836644638432,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_reservists_economic","raw_b5_point_pp":2.609576751940397,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":5.0,"seat_range_display":"0, 4–7","seat_range_high":7,"seat_range_low":4,"seat_range_mode":"ZERO_SEPARATED_CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":2.365562223023482,"vote_q10_pp":1.081946889120458,"vote_q2_5_pp":0.7122304166765173,"vote_q90_pp":3.9645824180421343,"vote_q97_5_pp":5.307160669549692,"zero_seat_probability":0.8088116335536157},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":17.325179638512996,"contest_party_id":"LIKUD","display_name_en":"Likud","display_name_he":"הליכוד","expected_seats":23.28595,"forecast_date":"2026-10-16","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":24,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":1.0,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.0,"p_represented":1.0,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_likud","raw_b5_point_pp":17.646583309071026,"seat_q10":20.0,"seat_q90":27.0,"seat_range_display":"20–27","seat_range_high":27,"seat_range_low":20,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":17.32511943770706,"vote_q10_pp":14.95496124627552,"vote_q2_5_pp":13.791903322516438,"vote_q90_pp":19.817869508686044,"vote_q97_5_pp":21.302632408085167,"zero_seat_probability":0.0},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":5.674072203137139,"contest_party_id":"SHAS","display_name_en":"Shas","display_name_he":"ש״ס","expected_seats":7.19105,"forecast_date":"2026-10-16","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":7,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.9744,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.0256,"p_represented":0.9744,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_shas","raw_b5_point_pp":5.779333312756207,"seat_q10":5.0,"seat_q90":10.0,"seat_range_display":"5–10","seat_range_high":10,"seat_range_low":5,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":5.674073767752689,"vote_q10_pp":3.920655494869948,"vote_q2_5_pp":3.2405876150721133,"vote_q90_pp":7.64110058482313,"vote_q97_5_pp":9.10470968193104,"zero_seat_probability":0.0256},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":5.9112369834026435,"contest_party_id":"UNITED_TORAH_JUDAISM","display_name_en":"United Torah Judaism","display_name_he":"יהדות התורה","expected_seats":7.5664,"forecast_date":"2026-10-16","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":8,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.98725,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.01275,"p_represented":0.98725,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_utj","raw_b5_point_pp":6.020897795217872,"seat_q10":5.0,"seat_q90":10.0,"seat_range_display":"5–10","seat_range_high":10,"seat_range_low":5,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":5.9112682538614605,"vote_q10_pp":4.138638223882747,"vote_q2_5_pp":3.474931045323542,"vote_q90_pp":7.89604447530983,"vote_q97_5_pp":9.326922550196386,"zero_seat_probability":0.01275},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":6.148316043002528,"contest_party_id":"OTZMA_YEHUDIT","display_name_en":"Otzma Yehudit","display_name_he":"עוצמה יהודית","expected_seats":7.8953,"forecast_date":"2026-10-16","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":8,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.98775,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.01225,"p_represented":0.98775,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_otzma","raw_b5_point_pp":6.262374966788755,"seat_q10":5.0,"seat_q90":11.0,"seat_range_display":"5–11","seat_range_high":11,"seat_range_low":5,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":6.148233158542322,"vote_q10_pp":4.263520241722137,"vote_q2_5_pp":3.4968294115346743,"vote_q90_pp":8.312808251107985,"vote_q97_5_pp":9.789317793802676,"zero_seat_probability":0.01225},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":4.6553497364986365,"contest_party_id":"K26_NATIVE_LIST::RZP_AND_ZEHUT","display_name_en":"Religious Zionism–Zehut","display_name_he":"הציונות הדתית וזהות","expected_seats":5.33375,"forecast_date":"2026-10-16","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":6,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.83945,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.16055,"p_represented":0.83945,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_religious_zionism_zehut","raw_b5_point_pp":4.741712274969288,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":9.0,"seat_range_display":"4–9","seat_range_high":9,"seat_range_low":4,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":4.655389260894952,"vote_q10_pp":2.947639084766466,"vote_q2_5_pp":2.3740829987253083,"vote_q90_pp":6.638152117193926,"vote_q97_5_pp":8.185014318310808,"zero_seat_probability":0.16055},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":3.1153946705796183,"contest_party_id":"WINTER_NEW_PARTY","display_name_en":"Amcha Yisrael","display_name_he":"עמך ישראל","expected_seats":2.13235,"forecast_date":"2026-10-16","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":0,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.3768,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.6232,"p_represented":0.3768,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_amcha_yisrael","raw_b5_point_pp":3.1731891236965937,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":6.0,"seat_range_display":"0, 4–8","seat_range_high":8,"seat_range_low":4,"seat_range_mode":"ZERO_SEPARATED_CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":3.11531966951762,"vote_q10_pp":1.6052003078837849,"vote_q2_5_pp":1.1623120661101796,"vote_q90_pp":4.996158965263999,"vote_q97_5_pp":6.664157031410947,"zero_seat_probability":0.6232},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":0.5926263449995827,"contest_party_id":"K26_NATIVE_LIST::HAREDI_PUBLIC","display_name_en":"Haredi Public","display_name_he":"הציבור החרדי","expected_seats":0.0624,"forecast_date":"2026-10-16","group_id":"UNCOMMITTED","headline_seats":0,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.010700000000000043,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.9893,"p_represented":0.0107,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_haredi_public","raw_b5_point_pp":0.6036203021490281,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":0.0,"seat_range_display":"0","seat_range_high":null,"seat_range_low":null,"seat_range_mode":"ZERO_ONLY_RARE_REPRESENTATION","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":0.5926824716344726,"vote_q10_pp":0.11678109656965775,"vote_q2_5_pp":0.062669134414877,"vote_q90_pp":1.2633232683089006,"vote_q97_5_pp":2.3840666720118207,"zero_seat_probability":0.9893},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":9.496255939717082,"contest_party_id":"K26_NATIVE_LIST::BEYAHAD_BENNETT","display_name_en":"Beyachad","display_name_he":"ביחד","expected_seats":12.535,"forecast_date":"2026-10-16","group_id":"CHANGE_CORE","headline_seats":13,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":1.0,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.0,"p_represented":1.0,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_beyachad","raw_b5_point_pp":9.672423320331067,"seat_q10":10.0,"seat_q90":16.0,"seat_range_display":"10–16","seat_range_high":16,"seat_range_low":10,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":9.496301944086362,"vote_q10_pp":7.328048254534047,"vote_q2_5_pp":6.4532194262464175,"vote_q90_pp":11.860125033602307,"vote_q97_5_pp":13.368367508430506,"zero_seat_probability":0.0},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":17.11954298996529,"contest_party_id":"YASHAR_GADI_EISENKOT","display_name_en":"Yashar!","display_name_he":"ישר!","expected_seats":23.00245,"forecast_date":"2026-10-16","group_id":"CHANGE_CORE","headline_seats":23,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":1.0,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.0,"p_represented":1.0,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_yashar","raw_b5_point_pp":17.437131844456562,"seat_q10":20.0,"seat_q90":27.0,"seat_range_display":"20–27","seat_range_high":27,"seat_range_low":20,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":17.119544875726483,"vote_q10_pp":14.681586700062583,"vote_q2_5_pp":13.537025502695977,"vote_q90_pp":19.65746157535951,"vote_q97_5_pp":21.14536787824514,"zero_seat_probability":0.0},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":6.636587551468527,"contest_party_id":"YISRAEL_BEITEINU","display_name_en":"Yisrael Beiteinu","display_name_he":"ישראל ביתנו","expected_seats":8.6024,"forecast_date":"2026-10-16","group_id":"CHANGE_CORE","headline_seats":9,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.99685,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.00315,"p_represented":0.99685,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_yisrael_beiteinu","raw_b5_point_pp":6.759704520153811,"seat_q10":6.0,"seat_q90":12.0,"seat_range_display":"6–12","seat_range_high":12,"seat_range_low":6,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":6.636590292287074,"vote_q10_pp":4.693308246495668,"vote_q2_5_pp":3.933752491048591,"vote_q90_pp":8.80360176422985,"vote_q97_5_pp":10.321679520234609,"zero_seat_probability":0.00315},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":7.5500847560611195,"contest_party_id":"THE_DEMOCRATS","display_name_en":"The Democrats","display_name_he":"הדמוקרטים","expected_seats":9.8637,"forecast_date":"2026-10-16","group_id":"CHANGE_CORE","headline_seats":10,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.9998,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.0002,"p_represented":0.9998,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_democrats","raw_b5_point_pp":7.690148236166573,"seat_q10":7.0,"seat_q90":13.0,"seat_range_display":"7–13","seat_range_high":13,"seat_range_low":7,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":7.550052094981456,"vote_q10_pp":5.518849733524025,"vote_q2_5_pp":4.6988318198162204,"vote_q90_pp":9.810072758978247,"vote_q97_5_pp":11.369919092965862,"zero_seat_probability":0.0002},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":3.9503053370669323,"contest_party_id":"RAAM","display_name_en":"Raam","display_name_he":"רע״ם","expected_seats":3.77035,"forecast_date":"2026-10-16","group_id":"ARAB_LISTS","headline_seats":5,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.6341,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.3659,"p_represented":0.6341,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_raam","raw_b5_point_pp":4.023588423398455,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":8.0,"seat_range_display":"0, 4–8","seat_range_high":8,"seat_range_low":4,"seat_range_mode":"ZERO_SEPARATED_CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":3.950352138934158,"vote_q10_pp":2.3072388157692956,"vote_q2_5_pp":1.7785262352665567,"vote_q90_pp":5.9244320226962355,"vote_q97_5_pp":7.5384298376660075,"zero_seat_probability":0.3659},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":5.64224365367504,"contest_party_id":"HADASH_TAAL_BALAD","display_name_en":"Joint List","display_name_he":"הרשימה המשותפת","expected_seats":7.138,"forecast_date":"2026-10-16","group_id":"ARAB_LISTS","headline_seats":7,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.97235,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.02765,"p_represented":0.97235,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_joint_list","raw_b5_point_pp":5.746914304041212,"seat_q10":5.0,"seat_q90":10.0,"seat_range_display":"5–10","seat_range_high":10,"seat_range_low":5,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":5.642105980210137,"vote_q10_pp":3.8732616681291168,"vote_q2_5_pp":3.207640262312485,"vote_q90_pp":7.64574038766802,"vote_q97_5_pp":9.146169639679343,"zero_seat_probability":0.02765},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":1.2207565749966993,"contest_party_id":"BLUE_WHITE","display_name_en":"Blue and White","display_name_he":"כחול לבן","expected_seats":0.2353,"forecast_date":"2026-10-16","group_id":"UNCOMMITTED","headline_seats":0,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.04149999999999998,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.9585,"p_represented":0.0415,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_blue_white","raw_b5_point_pp":1.2434031306023683,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":0.0,"seat_range_display":"0","seat_range_high":null,"seat_range_low":null,"seat_range_mode":"ZERO_ONLY_RARE_REPRESENTATION","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":1.2207959013025076,"vote_q10_pp":0.3693756963743336,"vote_q2_5_pp":0.22669593165317747,"vote_q90_pp":2.363468417110532,"vote_q97_5_pp":3.872119238156354,"zero_seat_probability":0.9585},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":2.562047576916164,"contest_party_id":"K26_NATIVE_LIST::RESERVISTS_AND_NEW_ECONOMIC_PARTY","display_name_en":"Reservists–Economic","display_name_he":"המילואימניקים והכלכלית","expected_seats":1.3856,"forecast_date":"2026-10-16","group_id":"UNCOMMITTED","headline_seats":0,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.24114999999999998,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.75885,"p_represented":0.24115,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_reservists_economic","raw_b5_point_pp":2.609576751940397,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":6.0,"seat_range_display":"0, 4–8","seat_range_high":8,"seat_range_low":4,"seat_range_mode":"ZERO_SEPARATED_CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":2.562170752561251,"vote_q10_pp":1.1080054862148205,"vote_q2_5_pp":0.7601785409671264,"vote_q90_pp":4.4542269276825195,"vote_q97_5_pp":6.31816199562682,"zero_seat_probability":0.75885},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":17.325179638512996,"contest_party_id":"LIKUD","display_name_en":"Likud","display_name_he":"הליכוד","expected_seats":23.61898526912683,"forecast_date":"2026-10-16","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":24,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":1.0,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.0,"p_represented":1.0,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_likud","raw_b5_point_pp":17.646583309071026,"seat_q10":20.0,"seat_q90":27.0,"seat_range_display":"20–27","seat_range_high":27,"seat_range_low":20,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":17.611945106062095,"vote_q10_pp":15.30801336565022,"vote_q2_5_pp":14.162963982790387,"vote_q90_pp":20.06095445252419,"vote_q97_5_pp":21.53643512268031,"zero_seat_probability":0.0},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":5.674072203137139,"contest_party_id":"SHAS","display_name_en":"Shas","display_name_he":"ש״ס","expected_seats":7.553047785769596,"forecast_date":"2026-10-16","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":8,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.9909078409437191,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.009092159056280965,"p_represented":0.990907840943719,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_shas","raw_b5_point_pp":5.779333312756207,"seat_q10":5.0,"seat_q90":10.0,"seat_range_display":"5–10","seat_range_high":10,"seat_range_low":5,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":5.902222427154804,"vote_q10_pp":4.258240966280882,"vote_q2_5_pp":3.6050794617140944,"vote_q90_pp":7.697370919129562,"vote_q97_5_pp":8.940497290359668,"zero_seat_probability":0.009092159056280965},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":5.9112369834026435,"contest_party_id":"UNITED_TORAH_JUDAISM","display_name_en":"United Torah Judaism","display_name_he":"יהדות התורה","expected_seats":7.569885906546908,"forecast_date":"2026-10-16","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":8,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.9951869636048858,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.0048130363951142206,"p_represented":0.9951869636048858,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_utj","raw_b5_point_pp":6.020897795217872,"seat_q10":5.0,"seat_q90":10.0,"seat_range_display":"6–10","seat_range_high":10,"seat_range_low":6,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":5.9076564324563705,"vote_q10_pp":4.386671870079456,"vote_q2_5_pp":3.7388673746193652,"vote_q90_pp":7.609842532261507,"vote_q97_5_pp":8.691851246872341,"zero_seat_probability":0.0048130363951142206},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":6.148316043002528,"contest_party_id":"OTZMA_YEHUDIT","display_name_en":"Otzma Yehudit","display_name_he":"עוצמה יהודית","expected_seats":7.871275786747001,"forecast_date":"2026-10-16","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":8,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.99563565950897,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.004364340491029977,"p_represented":0.9956356595089699,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_otzma","raw_b5_point_pp":6.262374966788755,"seat_q10":6.0,"seat_q90":10.0,"seat_range_display":"6–10","seat_range_high":10,"seat_range_low":6,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":6.124820752637432,"vote_q10_pp":4.513941643638816,"vote_q2_5_pp":3.836715420170533,"vote_q90_pp":7.887623366731202,"vote_q97_5_pp":9.089650040863813,"zero_seat_probability":0.004364340491029977},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":4.6553497364986365,"contest_party_id":"K26_NATIVE_LIST::RZP_AND_ZEHUT","display_name_en":"Religious Zionism–Zehut","display_name_he":"הציונות הדתית וזהות","expected_seats":5.6466587678223,"forecast_date":"2026-10-16","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":6,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.9006305497377247,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.09936945026227523,"p_represented":0.9006305497377247,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_religious_zionism_zehut","raw_b5_point_pp":4.741712274969288,"seat_q10":4.0,"seat_q90":8.0,"seat_range_display":"4–8","seat_range_high":8,"seat_range_low":4,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":4.73874284608957,"vote_q10_pp":3.252752332194092,"vote_q2_5_pp":2.544298613160722,"vote_q90_pp":6.427151949745231,"vote_q97_5_pp":7.583502597413751,"zero_seat_probability":0.09936945026227523},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":3.1153946705796183,"contest_party_id":"WINTER_NEW_PARTY","display_name_en":"Amcha Yisrael","display_name_he":"עמך ישראל","expected_seats":1.8503281147249426,"forecast_date":"2026-10-16","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":0,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.34657445923389796,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.653425540766102,"p_represented":0.34657445923389796,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_amcha_yisrael","raw_b5_point_pp":3.1731891236965937,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":6.0,"seat_range_display":"0, 4–7","seat_range_high":7,"seat_range_low":4,"seat_range_mode":"ZERO_SEPARATED_CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":2.9748957548873225,"vote_q10_pp":1.5901839105387015,"vote_q2_5_pp":1.1570266577687918,"vote_q90_pp":4.640311291084839,"vote_q97_5_pp":5.8889465764510796,"zero_seat_probability":0.653425540766102},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":0.5926263449995827,"contest_party_id":"K26_NATIVE_LIST::HAREDI_PUBLIC","display_name_en":"Haredi Public","display_name_he":"הציבור החרדי","expected_seats":0.014776639996914313,"forecast_date":"2026-10-16","group_id":"UNCOMMITTED","headline_seats":0,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.0025946365698155116,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.9974053634301845,"p_represented":0.002594636569815452,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_haredi_public","raw_b5_point_pp":0.6036203021490281,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":0.0,"seat_range_display":"0","seat_range_high":null,"seat_range_low":null,"seat_range_mode":"ZERO_ONLY_RARE_REPRESENTATION","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":0.5534970340922103,"vote_q10_pp":0.1159233842551197,"vote_q2_5_pp":0.0609766746605887,"vote_q90_pp":1.1931841752012036,"vote_q97_5_pp":2.114594914736744,"zero_seat_probability":0.9974053634301845},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":9.496255939717082,"contest_party_id":"K26_NATIVE_LIST::BEYAHAD_BENNETT","display_name_en":"Beyachad","display_name_he":"ביחד","expected_seats":12.501642030663886,"forecast_date":"2026-10-16","group_id":"CHANGE_CORE","headline_seats":13,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":1.0,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.0,"p_represented":1.0,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_beyachad","raw_b5_point_pp":9.672423320331067,"seat_q10":10.0,"seat_q90":16.0,"seat_range_display":"10–16","seat_range_high":16,"seat_range_low":10,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":9.499596089792481,"vote_q10_pp":7.443989161802195,"vote_q2_5_pp":6.583339115882226,"vote_q90_pp":11.687927711374757,"vote_q97_5_pp":13.021903589661722,"zero_seat_probability":0.0},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":17.11954298996529,"contest_party_id":"YASHAR_GADI_EISENKOT","display_name_en":"Yashar!","display_name_he":"ישר!","expected_seats":23.089370210532305,"forecast_date":"2026-10-16","group_id":"CHANGE_CORE","headline_seats":23,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":1.0,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.0,"p_represented":1.0,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_yashar","raw_b5_point_pp":17.437131844456562,"seat_q10":20.0,"seat_q90":26.0,"seat_range_display":"20–26","seat_range_high":26,"seat_range_low":20,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":17.231434698274736,"vote_q10_pp":15.151635988262989,"vote_q2_5_pp":14.117020339926448,"vote_q90_pp":19.40671961152243,"vote_q97_5_pp":20.728406236846816,"zero_seat_probability":0.0},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":6.636587551468527,"contest_party_id":"YISRAEL_BEITEINU","display_name_en":"Yisrael Beiteinu","display_name_he":"ישראל ביתנו","expected_seats":8.36794592527702,"forecast_date":"2026-10-16","group_id":"CHANGE_CORE","headline_seats":8,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.9990820284924503,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.0009179715075496735,"p_represented":0.9990820284924502,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_yisrael_beiteinu","raw_b5_point_pp":6.759704520153811,"seat_q10":6.0,"seat_q90":11.0,"seat_range_display":"6–11","seat_range_high":11,"seat_range_low":6,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":6.479780757465477,"vote_q10_pp":4.819310928932738,"vote_q2_5_pp":4.149516537287304,"vote_q90_pp":8.254660805129541,"vote_q97_5_pp":9.467821662868458,"zero_seat_probability":0.0009179715075496735},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":7.5500847560611195,"contest_party_id":"THE_DEMOCRATS","display_name_en":"The Democrats","display_name_he":"הדמוקרטים","expected_seats":9.735906702366313,"forecast_date":"2026-10-16","group_id":"CHANGE_CORE","headline_seats":10,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.9999685178093861,"p_below_legal_threshold":3.148219061388189e-05,"p_represented":0.9999685178093861,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_democrats","raw_b5_point_pp":7.690148236166573,"seat_q10":7.0,"seat_q90":12.0,"seat_range_display":"7–12","seat_range_high":12,"seat_range_low":7,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":7.477095742438419,"vote_q10_pp":5.755131407010846,"vote_q2_5_pp":5.019747628827902,"vote_q90_pp":9.338746991244118,"vote_q97_5_pp":10.549069179820636,"zero_seat_probability":3.148219061388189e-05},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":3.9503053370669323,"contest_party_id":"RAAM","display_name_en":"Raam","display_name_he":"רע״ם","expected_seats":3.8546373456784684,"forecast_date":"2026-10-16","group_id":"ARAB_LISTS","headline_seats":5,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.6796505609146477,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.3203494390853523,"p_represented":0.6796505609146477,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_raam","raw_b5_point_pp":4.023588423398455,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":7.0,"seat_range_display":"0, 4–8","seat_range_high":8,"seat_range_low":4,"seat_range_mode":"ZERO_SEPARATED_CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":3.9205536515971118,"vote_q10_pp":2.383267965942527,"vote_q2_5_pp":1.8266319952596706,"vote_q90_pp":5.598872362418445,"vote_q97_5_pp":6.819636951112676,"zero_seat_probability":0.3203494390853523},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":5.64224365367504,"contest_party_id":"HADASH_TAAL_BALAD","display_name_en":"Joint List","display_name_he":"הרשימה המשותפת","expected_seats":7.2480295527381156,"forecast_date":"2026-10-16","group_id":"ARAB_LISTS","headline_seats":7,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.9889535171065654,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.01104648289343456,"p_represented":0.9889535171065654,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_joint_list","raw_b5_point_pp":5.746914304041212,"seat_q10":5.0,"seat_q90":10.0,"seat_range_display":"5–10","seat_range_high":10,"seat_range_low":5,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":5.690623243482437,"vote_q10_pp":4.1404384714331375,"vote_q2_5_pp":3.518946183894357,"vote_q90_pp":7.393188732256351,"vote_q97_5_pp":8.519579814148019,"zero_seat_probability":0.01104648289343456},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":1.2207565749966993,"contest_party_id":"BLUE_WHITE","display_name_en":"Blue and White","display_name_he":"כחול לבן","expected_seats":0.0611809340372438,"forecast_date":"2026-10-16","group_id":"UNCOMMITTED","headline_seats":0,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.010885014065435294,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.9891149859345647,"p_represented":0.010885014065435203,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_blue_white","raw_b5_point_pp":1.2434031306023683,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":0.0,"seat_range_display":"0","seat_range_high":null,"seat_range_low":null,"seat_range_mode":"ZERO_ONLY_RARE_REPRESENTATION","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":1.1127868963732717,"vote_q10_pp":0.36130273022163306,"vote_q2_5_pp":0.22149448088253695,"vote_q90_pp":2.130341666179981,"vote_q97_5_pp":2.9411751282004386,"zero_seat_probability":0.9891149859345647},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":2.562047576916164,"contest_party_id":"K26_NATIVE_LIST::RESERVISTS_AND_NEW_ECONOMIC_PARTY","display_name_en":"Reservists–Economic","display_name_he":"המילואימניקים והכלכלית","expected_seats":1.0163290279721522,"forecast_date":"2026-10-16","group_id":"UNCOMMITTED","headline_seats":0,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.1923090354670136,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.8076909645329864,"p_represented":0.19230903546701353,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_reservists_economic","raw_b5_point_pp":2.609576751940397,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":5.0,"seat_range_display":"0, 4–7","seat_range_high":7,"seat_range_low":4,"seat_range_mode":"ZERO_SEPARATED_CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":2.374348567196255,"vote_q10_pp":1.0885319768067978,"vote_q2_5_pp":0.7386501221859183,"vote_q90_pp":3.969907534217354,"vote_q97_5_pp":5.2833403282184594,"zero_seat_probability":0.8076909645329864},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":17.325179638512996,"contest_party_id":"LIKUD","display_name_en":"Likud","display_name_he":"הליכוד","expected_seats":23.2735,"forecast_date":"2026-10-17","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":24,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":1.0,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.0,"p_represented":1.0,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_likud","raw_b5_point_pp":17.646583309071026,"seat_q10":20.0,"seat_q90":27.0,"seat_range_display":"20–27","seat_range_high":27,"seat_range_low":20,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":17.32511921036939,"vote_q10_pp":14.990397533105968,"vote_q2_5_pp":13.870286448332324,"vote_q90_pp":19.761486420899036,"vote_q97_5_pp":21.16364007708352,"zero_seat_probability":0.0},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":5.674072203137139,"contest_party_id":"SHAS","display_name_en":"Shas","display_name_he":"ש״ס","expected_seats":7.2014,"forecast_date":"2026-10-17","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":7,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.97965,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.02035,"p_represented":0.97965,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_shas","raw_b5_point_pp":5.779333312756207,"seat_q10":5.0,"seat_q90":10.0,"seat_range_display":"5–10","seat_range_high":10,"seat_range_low":5,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":5.674070414278968,"vote_q10_pp":3.9596960057176065,"vote_q2_5_pp":3.3245142992792625,"vote_q90_pp":7.599079562089103,"vote_q97_5_pp":8.977427360768276,"zero_seat_probability":0.02035},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":5.9112369834026435,"contest_party_id":"UNITED_TORAH_JUDAISM","display_name_en":"United Torah Judaism","display_name_he":"יהדות התורה","expected_seats":7.57275,"forecast_date":"2026-10-17","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":8,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.9892,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.0108,"p_represented":0.9892,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_utj","raw_b5_point_pp":6.020897795217872,"seat_q10":5.0,"seat_q90":10.0,"seat_range_display":"5–10","seat_range_high":10,"seat_range_low":5,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":5.911202954949395,"vote_q10_pp":4.20035725155912,"vote_q2_5_pp":3.525202593995768,"vote_q90_pp":7.836363293110948,"vote_q97_5_pp":9.217022788166181,"zero_seat_probability":0.0108},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":6.148316043002528,"contest_party_id":"OTZMA_YEHUDIT","display_name_en":"Otzma Yehudit","display_name_he":"עוצמה יהודית","expected_seats":7.9029,"forecast_date":"2026-10-17","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":8,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.9913,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.0087,"p_represented":0.9913,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_otzma","raw_b5_point_pp":6.262374966788755,"seat_q10":5.0,"seat_q90":11.0,"seat_range_display":"5–11","seat_range_high":11,"seat_range_low":5,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":6.148345665688088,"vote_q10_pp":4.3062517918430805,"vote_q2_5_pp":3.642921272165559,"vote_q90_pp":8.226053418051006,"vote_q97_5_pp":9.695811140333216,"zero_seat_probability":0.0087},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":4.6553497364986365,"contest_party_id":"K26_NATIVE_LIST::RZP_AND_ZEHUT","display_name_en":"Religious Zionism–Zehut","display_name_he":"הציונות הדתית וזהות","expected_seats":5.3529,"forecast_date":"2026-10-17","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":6,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.84685,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.15315,"p_represented":0.84685,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_religious_zionism_zehut","raw_b5_point_pp":4.741712274969288,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":9.0,"seat_range_display":"4–9","seat_range_high":9,"seat_range_low":4,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":4.65534012490282,"vote_q10_pp":3.0121634372919193,"vote_q2_5_pp":2.4284087580070675,"vote_q90_pp":6.566799537332476,"vote_q97_5_pp":8.114035165597514,"zero_seat_probability":0.15315},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":3.1153946705796183,"contest_party_id":"WINTER_NEW_PARTY","display_name_en":"Amcha Yisrael","display_name_he":"עמך ישראל","expected_seats":2.11335,"forecast_date":"2026-10-17","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":0,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.3761,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.6239,"p_represented":0.3761,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_amcha_yisrael","raw_b5_point_pp":3.1731891236965937,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":6.0,"seat_range_display":"0, 4–8","seat_range_high":8,"seat_range_low":4,"seat_range_mode":"ZERO_SEPARATED_CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":3.115407818557811,"vote_q10_pp":1.62970112329484,"vote_q2_5_pp":1.2091600468903825,"vote_q90_pp":4.9603973601411555,"vote_q97_5_pp":6.570735348183943,"zero_seat_probability":0.6239},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":0.5926263449995827,"contest_party_id":"K26_NATIVE_LIST::HAREDI_PUBLIC","display_name_en":"Haredi Public","display_name_he":"הציבור החרדי","expected_seats":0.0603,"forecast_date":"2026-10-17","group_id":"UNCOMMITTED","headline_seats":0,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.01090000000000002,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.9891,"p_represented":0.0109,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_haredi_public","raw_b5_point_pp":0.6036203021490281,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":0.0,"seat_range_display":"0","seat_range_high":null,"seat_range_low":null,"seat_range_mode":"ZERO_ONLY_RARE_REPRESENTATION","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":0.5925857118355671,"vote_q10_pp":0.11714770985890544,"vote_q2_5_pp":0.06160334785555595,"vote_q90_pp":1.262170441034765,"vote_q97_5_pp":2.367634399021201,"zero_seat_probability":0.9891},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":9.496255939717082,"contest_party_id":"K26_NATIVE_LIST::BEYAHAD_BENNETT","display_name_en":"Beyachad","display_name_he":"ביחד","expected_seats":12.5305,"forecast_date":"2026-10-17","group_id":"CHANGE_CORE","headline_seats":13,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":1.0,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.0,"p_represented":1.0,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_beyachad","raw_b5_point_pp":9.672423320331067,"seat_q10":10.0,"seat_q90":16.0,"seat_range_display":"10–16","seat_range_high":16,"seat_range_low":10,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":9.496269771308866,"vote_q10_pp":7.390544033837949,"vote_q2_5_pp":6.508229665309884,"vote_q90_pp":11.80783491440346,"vote_q97_5_pp":13.290281467297728,"zero_seat_probability":0.0},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":17.11954298996529,"contest_party_id":"YASHAR_GADI_EISENKOT","display_name_en":"Yashar!","display_name_he":"ישר!","expected_seats":22.99075,"forecast_date":"2026-10-17","group_id":"CHANGE_CORE","headline_seats":23,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":1.0,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.0,"p_represented":1.0,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_yashar","raw_b5_point_pp":17.437131844456562,"seat_q10":20.0,"seat_q90":27.0,"seat_range_display":"20–27","seat_range_high":27,"seat_range_low":20,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":17.1195942559575,"vote_q10_pp":14.725326635088456,"vote_q2_5_pp":13.618602904943065,"vote_q90_pp":19.622181272381003,"vote_q97_5_pp":21.129401595651483,"zero_seat_probability":0.0},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":6.636587551468527,"contest_party_id":"YISRAEL_BEITEINU","display_name_en":"Yisrael Beiteinu","display_name_he":"ישראל ביתנו","expected_seats":8.60035,"forecast_date":"2026-10-17","group_id":"CHANGE_CORE","headline_seats":9,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.9981,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.0019,"p_represented":0.9981,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_yisrael_beiteinu","raw_b5_point_pp":6.759704520153811,"seat_q10":6.0,"seat_q90":12.0,"seat_range_display":"6–12","seat_range_high":12,"seat_range_low":6,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":6.636457925096932,"vote_q10_pp":4.744002999419814,"vote_q2_5_pp":4.017596055000764,"vote_q90_pp":8.76675936726577,"vote_q97_5_pp":10.333610666849845,"zero_seat_probability":0.0019},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":7.5500847560611195,"contest_party_id":"THE_DEMOCRATS","display_name_en":"The Democrats","display_name_he":"הדמוקרטים","expected_seats":9.8601,"forecast_date":"2026-10-17","group_id":"CHANGE_CORE","headline_seats":10,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.9999,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.0001,"p_represented":0.9999,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_democrats","raw_b5_point_pp":7.690148236166573,"seat_q10":7.0,"seat_q90":13.0,"seat_range_display":"7–13","seat_range_high":13,"seat_range_low":7,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":7.550163219586347,"vote_q10_pp":5.556000720234164,"vote_q2_5_pp":4.772131042790342,"vote_q90_pp":9.801502016236478,"vote_q97_5_pp":11.300247066667408,"zero_seat_probability":0.0001},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":3.9503053370669323,"contest_party_id":"RAAM","display_name_en":"Raam","display_name_he":"רע״ם","expected_seats":3.80635,"forecast_date":"2026-10-17","group_id":"ARAB_LISTS","headline_seats":5,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.6475500000000001,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.35245,"p_represented":0.64755,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_raam","raw_b5_point_pp":4.023588423398455,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":7.0,"seat_range_display":"0, 4–8","seat_range_high":8,"seat_range_low":4,"seat_range_mode":"ZERO_SEPARATED_CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":3.9503876044266466,"vote_q10_pp":2.3406168779526433,"vote_q2_5_pp":1.8424143904299373,"vote_q90_pp":5.850297009055729,"vote_q97_5_pp":7.384121677760842,"zero_seat_probability":0.35245},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":5.64224365367504,"contest_party_id":"HADASH_TAAL_BALAD","display_name_en":"Joint List","display_name_he":"הרשימה המשותפת","expected_seats":7.1492,"forecast_date":"2026-10-17","group_id":"ARAB_LISTS","headline_seats":7,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.97605,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.02395,"p_represented":0.97605,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_joint_list","raw_b5_point_pp":5.746914304041212,"seat_q10":5.0,"seat_q90":10.0,"seat_range_display":"5–10","seat_range_high":10,"seat_range_low":5,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":5.642134952399141,"vote_q10_pp":3.8796655534147773,"vote_q2_5_pp":3.26367883042905,"vote_q90_pp":7.615784176838308,"vote_q97_5_pp":9.05720946984251,"zero_seat_probability":0.02395},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":1.2207565749966993,"contest_party_id":"BLUE_WHITE","display_name_en":"Blue and White","display_name_he":"כחול לבן","expected_seats":0.22485,"forecast_date":"2026-10-17","group_id":"UNCOMMITTED","headline_seats":0,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.040200000000000014,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.9598,"p_represented":0.0402,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_blue_white","raw_b5_point_pp":1.2434031306023683,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":0.0,"seat_range_display":"0","seat_range_high":null,"seat_range_low":null,"seat_range_mode":"ZERO_ONLY_RARE_REPRESENTATION","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":1.2208663005246867,"vote_q10_pp":0.38926732893831756,"vote_q2_5_pp":0.23988647303202923,"vote_q90_pp":2.3398834933947823,"vote_q97_5_pp":3.7436296897187096,"zero_seat_probability":0.9598},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":2.562047576916164,"contest_party_id":"K26_NATIVE_LIST::RESERVISTS_AND_NEW_ECONOMIC_PARTY","display_name_en":"Reservists–Economic","display_name_he":"המילואימניקים והכלכלית","expected_seats":1.3608,"forecast_date":"2026-10-17","group_id":"UNCOMMITTED","headline_seats":0,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.23795,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.76205,"p_represented":0.23795,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_reservists_economic","raw_b5_point_pp":2.609576751940397,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":5.0,"seat_range_display":"0, 4–8","seat_range_high":8,"seat_range_low":4,"seat_range_mode":"ZERO_SEPARATED_CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":2.5620540701178345,"vote_q10_pp":1.14021502025877,"vote_q2_5_pp":0.7962213147009088,"vote_q90_pp":4.4053760923045475,"vote_q97_5_pp":6.255512051071795,"zero_seat_probability":0.76205},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":17.325179638512996,"contest_party_id":"LIKUD","display_name_en":"Likud","display_name_he":"הליכוד","expected_seats":23.58790026411011,"forecast_date":"2026-10-17","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":24,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":1.0,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.0,"p_represented":1.0000000000000002,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_likud","raw_b5_point_pp":17.646583309071026,"seat_q10":20.0,"seat_q90":27.0,"seat_range_display":"20–27","seat_range_high":27,"seat_range_low":20,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":17.59429313827011,"vote_q10_pp":15.290400133543553,"vote_q2_5_pp":14.214133459196892,"vote_q90_pp":19.967832103582165,"vote_q97_5_pp":21.28988449592841,"zero_seat_probability":0.0},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":5.674072203137139,"contest_party_id":"SHAS","display_name_en":"Shas","display_name_he":"ש״ס","expected_seats":7.538811882329137,"forecast_date":"2026-10-17","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":8,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.9929360420295531,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.007063957970446941,"p_represented":0.9929360420295532,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_shas","raw_b5_point_pp":5.779333312756207,"seat_q10":5.0,"seat_q90":10.0,"seat_range_display":"5–10","seat_range_high":10,"seat_range_low":5,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":5.891087903665573,"vote_q10_pp":4.263517430403013,"vote_q2_5_pp":3.6333434179207393,"vote_q90_pp":7.657391442847898,"vote_q97_5_pp":8.828499171088461,"zero_seat_probability":0.007063957970446941},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":5.9112369834026435,"contest_party_id":"UNITED_TORAH_JUDAISM","display_name_en":"United Torah Judaism","display_name_he":"יהדות התורה","expected_seats":7.579386175817419,"forecast_date":"2026-10-17","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":8,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.9961910618209526,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.0038089381790474127,"p_represented":0.9961910618209527,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_utj","raw_b5_point_pp":6.020897795217872,"seat_q10":6.0,"seat_q90":10.0,"seat_range_display":"6–10","seat_range_high":10,"seat_range_low":6,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":5.909588696304196,"vote_q10_pp":4.40607621792307,"vote_q2_5_pp":3.774978533162224,"vote_q90_pp":7.53180129489998,"vote_q97_5_pp":8.639030872247906,"zero_seat_probability":0.0038089381790474127},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":6.148316043002528,"contest_party_id":"OTZMA_YEHUDIT","display_name_en":"Otzma Yehudit","display_name_he":"עוצמה יהודית","expected_seats":7.863717017314784,"forecast_date":"2026-10-17","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":8,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.996731670343354,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.0032683296566460296,"p_represented":0.9967316703433542,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_otzma","raw_b5_point_pp":6.262374966788755,"seat_q10":6.0,"seat_q90":10.0,"seat_range_display":"6–10","seat_range_high":10,"seat_range_low":6,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":6.118332157114637,"vote_q10_pp":4.503379343863873,"vote_q2_5_pp":3.862717598905715,"vote_q90_pp":7.858570128350562,"vote_q97_5_pp":9.017791755116729,"zero_seat_probability":0.0032683296566460296},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":4.6553497364986365,"contest_party_id":"K26_NATIVE_LIST::RZP_AND_ZEHUT","display_name_en":"Religious Zionism–Zehut","display_name_he":"הציונות הדתית וזהות","expected_seats":5.661631379128421,"forecast_date":"2026-10-17","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":6,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.9038079241751558,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.09619207582484425,"p_represented":0.903807924175156,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_religious_zionism_zehut","raw_b5_point_pp":4.741712274969288,"seat_q10":4.0,"seat_q90":8.0,"seat_range_display":"4–8","seat_range_high":8,"seat_range_low":4,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":4.744957599408024,"vote_q10_pp":3.268798589092441,"vote_q2_5_pp":2.584967249964532,"vote_q90_pp":6.39305011098045,"vote_q97_5_pp":7.530072563233357,"zero_seat_probability":0.09619207582484425},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":3.1153946705796183,"contest_party_id":"WINTER_NEW_PARTY","display_name_en":"Amcha Yisrael","display_name_he":"עמך ישראל","expected_seats":1.8482448908652993,"forecast_date":"2026-10-17","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":0,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.3485516169607288,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.6514483830392712,"p_represented":0.34855161696072884,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_amcha_yisrael","raw_b5_point_pp":3.1731891236965937,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":6.0,"seat_range_display":"0, 4–7","seat_range_high":7,"seat_range_low":4,"seat_range_mode":"ZERO_SEPARATED_CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":2.9863114779596103,"vote_q10_pp":1.6264407287338702,"vote_q2_5_pp":1.2126112238139521,"vote_q90_pp":4.603025745551238,"vote_q97_5_pp":5.810067829148647,"zero_seat_probability":0.6514483830392712},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":0.5926263449995827,"contest_party_id":"K26_NATIVE_LIST::HAREDI_PUBLIC","display_name_en":"Haredi Public","display_name_he":"הציבור החרדי","expected_seats":0.013629399793162512,"forecast_date":"2026-10-17","group_id":"UNCOMMITTED","headline_seats":0,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.0025034133317525242,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.9974965866682475,"p_represented":0.0025034133317526214,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_haredi_public","raw_b5_point_pp":0.6036203021490281,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":0.0,"seat_range_display":"0","seat_range_high":null,"seat_range_low":null,"seat_range_mode":"ZERO_ONLY_RARE_REPRESENTATION","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":0.5548684514234269,"vote_q10_pp":0.11642102337657156,"vote_q2_5_pp":0.06240821396024443,"vote_q90_pp":1.2017528368584502,"vote_q97_5_pp":2.085301138392715,"zero_seat_probability":0.9974965866682475},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":9.496255939717082,"contest_party_id":"K26_NATIVE_LIST::BEYAHAD_BENNETT","display_name_en":"Beyachad","display_name_he":"ביחד","expected_seats":12.480722741404492,"forecast_date":"2026-10-17","group_id":"CHANGE_CORE","headline_seats":13,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":1.0,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.0,"p_represented":1.0000000000000002,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_beyachad","raw_b5_point_pp":9.672423320331067,"seat_q10":10.0,"seat_q90":15.0,"seat_range_display":"10–15","seat_range_high":15,"seat_range_low":10,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":9.483150076638552,"vote_q10_pp":7.511935473516529,"vote_q2_5_pp":6.661730517527868,"vote_q90_pp":11.610925754319396,"vote_q97_5_pp":12.972766421488647,"zero_seat_probability":0.0},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":17.11954298996529,"contest_party_id":"YASHAR_GADI_EISENKOT","display_name_en":"Yashar!","display_name_he":"ישר!","expected_seats":23.077514088175032,"forecast_date":"2026-10-17","group_id":"CHANGE_CORE","headline_seats":23,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":1.0,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.0,"p_represented":1.0000000000000002,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_yashar","raw_b5_point_pp":17.437131844456562,"seat_q10":20.0,"seat_q90":26.0,"seat_range_display":"20–26","seat_range_high":26,"seat_range_low":20,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":17.22534073597248,"vote_q10_pp":15.14369736824018,"vote_q2_5_pp":14.165221866611441,"vote_q90_pp":19.36309482124862,"vote_q97_5_pp":20.70222381690016,"zero_seat_probability":0.0},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":6.636587551468527,"contest_party_id":"YISRAEL_BEITEINU","display_name_en":"Yisrael Beiteinu","display_name_he":"ישראל ביתנו","expected_seats":8.36537949529329,"forecast_date":"2026-10-17","group_id":"CHANGE_CORE","headline_seats":8,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.9994488494104005,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.0005511505895995075,"p_represented":0.9994488494104007,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_yisrael_beiteinu","raw_b5_point_pp":6.759704520153811,"seat_q10":6.0,"seat_q90":11.0,"seat_range_display":"6–11","seat_range_high":11,"seat_range_low":6,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":6.479312459533837,"vote_q10_pp":4.88559590102145,"vote_q2_5_pp":4.1899982192472285,"vote_q90_pp":8.198431268652897,"vote_q97_5_pp":9.433135885936931,"zero_seat_probability":0.0005511505895995075},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":7.5500847560611195,"contest_party_id":"THE_DEMOCRATS","display_name_en":"The Democrats","display_name_he":"הדמוקרטים","expected_seats":9.73964541287297,"forecast_date":"2026-10-17","group_id":"CHANGE_CORE","headline_seats":10,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.9999825428246102,"p_below_legal_threshold":1.7457175389797885e-05,"p_represented":0.9999825428246103,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_democrats","raw_b5_point_pp":7.690148236166573,"seat_q10":7.0,"seat_q90":12.0,"seat_range_display":"7–12","seat_range_high":12,"seat_range_low":7,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":7.480560326348475,"vote_q10_pp":5.792192713171685,"vote_q2_5_pp":5.0730613582061865,"vote_q90_pp":9.281698584760612,"vote_q97_5_pp":10.575360989495708,"zero_seat_probability":1.7457175389797885e-05},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":3.9503053370669323,"contest_party_id":"RAAM","display_name_en":"Raam","display_name_he":"רע״ם","expected_seats":3.9542117098907,"forecast_date":"2026-10-17","group_id":"ARAB_LISTS","headline_seats":5,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.6986292029207789,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.3013707970792211,"p_represented":0.6986292029207791,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_raam","raw_b5_point_pp":4.023588423398455,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":7.0,"seat_range_display":"0, 4–8","seat_range_high":8,"seat_range_low":4,"seat_range_mode":"ZERO_SEPARATED_CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":3.953715950934395,"vote_q10_pp":2.438664057349889,"vote_q2_5_pp":1.8910994842930136,"vote_q90_pp":5.590191499755108,"vote_q97_5_pp":6.711870248607341,"zero_seat_probability":0.3013707970792211},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":5.64224365367504,"contest_party_id":"HADASH_TAAL_BALAD","display_name_en":"Joint List","display_name_he":"הרשימה המשותפת","expected_seats":7.237651179313336,"forecast_date":"2026-10-17","group_id":"ARAB_LISTS","headline_seats":7,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.990336632605734,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.009663367394265949,"p_represented":0.9903366326057342,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_joint_list","raw_b5_point_pp":5.746914304041212,"seat_q10":5.0,"seat_q90":10.0,"seat_range_display":"5–10","seat_range_high":10,"seat_range_low":5,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":5.6776805112187905,"vote_q10_pp":4.1148647600294055,"vote_q2_5_pp":3.534034693252754,"vote_q90_pp":7.33806041432739,"vote_q97_5_pp":8.50563071371348,"zero_seat_probability":0.009663367394265949},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":1.2207565749966993,"contest_party_id":"BLUE_WHITE","display_name_en":"Blue and White","display_name_he":"כחול לבן","expected_seats":0.05718414786302201,"forecast_date":"2026-10-17","group_id":"UNCOMMITTED","headline_seats":0,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.010135059995113216,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.9898649400048868,"p_represented":0.010135059995113414,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_blue_white","raw_b5_point_pp":1.2434031306023683,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":0.0,"seat_range_display":"0","seat_range_high":null,"seat_range_low":null,"seat_range_mode":"ZERO_ONLY_RARE_REPRESENTATION","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":1.121731080845362,"vote_q10_pp":0.3872014930160022,"vote_q2_5_pp":0.2364566975266756,"vote_q90_pp":2.1237532502906995,"vote_q97_5_pp":2.8949253704750455,"zero_seat_probability":0.9898649400048868},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":2.562047576916164,"contest_party_id":"K26_NATIVE_LIST::RESERVISTS_AND_NEW_ECONOMIC_PARTY","display_name_en":"Reservists–Economic","display_name_he":"המילואימניקים והכלכלית","expected_seats":0.9943702158288439,"forecast_date":"2026-10-17","group_id":"UNCOMMITTED","headline_seats":0,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.18788338994297316,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.8121166100570268,"p_represented":0.18788338994297338,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_reservists_economic","raw_b5_point_pp":2.609576751940397,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":5.0,"seat_range_display":"0, 4–7","seat_range_high":7,"seat_range_low":4,"seat_range_mode":"ZERO_SEPARATED_CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":2.3790694343625436,"vote_q10_pp":1.1303156747445946,"vote_q2_5_pp":0.7848496940738581,"vote_q90_pp":3.9438547412507354,"vote_q97_5_pp":5.292449419436542,"zero_seat_probability":0.8121166100570268},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":17.325179638512996,"contest_party_id":"LIKUD","display_name_en":"Likud","display_name_he":"הליכוד","expected_seats":23.2715,"forecast_date":"2026-10-18","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":24,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":1.0,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.0,"p_represented":1.0,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_likud","raw_b5_point_pp":17.646583309071026,"seat_q10":20.0,"seat_q90":27.0,"seat_range_display":"20–27","seat_range_high":27,"seat_range_low":20,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":17.32521298884316,"vote_q10_pp":15.027696771813766,"vote_q2_5_pp":13.963445179306483,"vote_q90_pp":19.684802565108203,"vote_q97_5_pp":21.138351083315726,"zero_seat_probability":0.0},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":5.674072203137139,"contest_party_id":"SHAS","display_name_en":"Shas","display_name_he":"ש״ס","expected_seats":7.22245,"forecast_date":"2026-10-18","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":7,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.98205,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.01795,"p_represented":0.98205,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_shas","raw_b5_point_pp":5.779333312756207,"seat_q10":5.0,"seat_q90":10.0,"seat_range_display":"5–10","seat_range_high":10,"seat_range_low":5,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":5.674081281056598,"vote_q10_pp":4.009777429982027,"vote_q2_5_pp":3.3712482754194877,"vote_q90_pp":7.5618177823431365,"vote_q97_5_pp":8.959395228065079,"zero_seat_probability":0.01795},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":5.9112369834026435,"contest_party_id":"UNITED_TORAH_JUDAISM","display_name_en":"United Torah Judaism","display_name_he":"יהדות התורה","expected_seats":7.5685,"forecast_date":"2026-10-18","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":8,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.99015,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.00985,"p_represented":0.99015,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_utj","raw_b5_point_pp":6.020897795217872,"seat_q10":5.0,"seat_q90":10.0,"seat_range_display":"5–10","seat_range_high":10,"seat_range_low":5,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":5.911194163384364,"vote_q10_pp":4.227104151590383,"vote_q2_5_pp":3.556685245137377,"vote_q90_pp":7.810861437045538,"vote_q97_5_pp":9.16016855565258,"zero_seat_probability":0.00985},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":6.148316043002528,"contest_party_id":"OTZMA_YEHUDIT","display_name_en":"Otzma Yehudit","display_name_he":"עוצמה יהודית","expected_seats":7.9025,"forecast_date":"2026-10-18","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":8,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.99165,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.00835,"p_represented":0.99165,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_otzma","raw_b5_point_pp":6.262374966788755,"seat_q10":5.0,"seat_q90":11.0,"seat_range_display":"5–11","seat_range_high":11,"seat_range_low":5,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":6.148450695106321,"vote_q10_pp":4.318310654643233,"vote_q2_5_pp":3.630725737945919,"vote_q90_pp":8.18747509118874,"vote_q97_5_pp":9.661246647364274,"zero_seat_probability":0.00835},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":4.6553497364986365,"contest_party_id":"K26_NATIVE_LIST::RZP_AND_ZEHUT","display_name_en":"Religious Zionism–Zehut","display_name_he":"הציונות הדתית וזהות","expected_seats":5.368,"forecast_date":"2026-10-18","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":6,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.85205,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.14795,"p_represented":0.85205,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_religious_zionism_zehut","raw_b5_point_pp":4.741712274969288,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":8.0,"seat_range_display":"4–9","seat_range_high":9,"seat_range_low":4,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":4.655383947426599,"vote_q10_pp":3.024143909504893,"vote_q2_5_pp":2.4568719094459093,"vote_q90_pp":6.504114363177865,"vote_q97_5_pp":8.004738792647537,"zero_seat_probability":0.14795},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":3.1153946705796183,"contest_party_id":"WINTER_NEW_PARTY","display_name_en":"Amcha Yisrael","display_name_he":"עמך ישראל","expected_seats":2.10655,"forecast_date":"2026-10-18","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":0,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.38044999999999995,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.61955,"p_represented":0.38045,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_amcha_yisrael","raw_b5_point_pp":3.1731891236965937,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":6.0,"seat_range_display":"0, 4–8","seat_range_high":8,"seat_range_low":4,"seat_range_mode":"ZERO_SEPARATED_CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":3.115410563993089,"vote_q10_pp":1.6578672824777314,"vote_q2_5_pp":1.2397834900250115,"vote_q90_pp":4.878608269240139,"vote_q97_5_pp":6.427638172586232,"zero_seat_probability":0.61955},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":0.5926263449995827,"contest_party_id":"K26_NATIVE_LIST::HAREDI_PUBLIC","display_name_en":"Haredi Public","display_name_he":"הציבור החרדי","expected_seats":0.04665,"forecast_date":"2026-10-18","group_id":"UNCOMMITTED","headline_seats":0,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.008499999999999952,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.9915,"p_represented":0.0085,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_haredi_public","raw_b5_point_pp":0.6036203021490281,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":0.0,"seat_range_display":"0","seat_range_high":null,"seat_range_low":null,"seat_range_mode":"ZERO_ONLY_RARE_REPRESENTATION","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":0.5925710828279309,"vote_q10_pp":0.12243352430297064,"vote_q2_5_pp":0.06592280419605395,"vote_q90_pp":1.2680365861386491,"vote_q97_5_pp":2.3255938716560838,"zero_seat_probability":0.9915},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":9.496255939717082,"contest_party_id":"K26_NATIVE_LIST::BEYAHAD_BENNETT","display_name_en":"Beyachad","display_name_he":"ביחד","expected_seats":12.52975,"forecast_date":"2026-10-18","group_id":"CHANGE_CORE","headline_seats":13,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":1.0,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.0,"p_represented":1.0,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_beyachad","raw_b5_point_pp":9.672423320331067,"seat_q10":10.0,"seat_q90":16.0,"seat_range_display":"10–16","seat_range_high":16,"seat_range_low":10,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":9.496225029304117,"vote_q10_pp":7.447799087902385,"vote_q2_5_pp":6.544780287217004,"vote_q90_pp":11.732972146455028,"vote_q97_5_pp":13.173506874763907,"zero_seat_probability":0.0},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":17.11954298996529,"contest_party_id":"YASHAR_GADI_EISENKOT","display_name_en":"Yashar!","display_name_he":"ישר!","expected_seats":22.9885,"forecast_date":"2026-10-18","group_id":"CHANGE_CORE","headline_seats":23,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":1.0,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.0,"p_represented":1.0,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_yashar","raw_b5_point_pp":17.437131844456562,"seat_q10":20.0,"seat_q90":27.0,"seat_range_display":"20–27","seat_range_high":27,"seat_range_low":20,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":17.119570913362736,"vote_q10_pp":14.76869637356247,"vote_q2_5_pp":13.646785049155556,"vote_q90_pp":19.588452704464533,"vote_q97_5_pp":21.00777588933951,"zero_seat_probability":0.0},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":6.636587551468527,"contest_party_id":"YISRAEL_BEITEINU","display_name_en":"Yisrael Beiteinu","display_name_he":"ישראל ביתנו","expected_seats":8.5981,"forecast_date":"2026-10-18","group_id":"CHANGE_CORE","headline_seats":9,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.99795,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.00205,"p_represented":0.99795,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_yisrael_beiteinu","raw_b5_point_pp":6.759704520153811,"seat_q10":6.0,"seat_q90":11.0,"seat_range_display":"6–11","seat_range_high":11,"seat_range_low":6,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":6.636551100403996,"vote_q10_pp":4.780751957745665,"vote_q2_5_pp":4.097682977685381,"vote_q90_pp":8.725618669231324,"vote_q97_5_pp":10.165807894541587,"zero_seat_probability":0.00205},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":7.5500847560611195,"contest_party_id":"THE_DEMOCRATS","display_name_en":"The Democrats","display_name_he":"הדמוקרטים","expected_seats":9.85905,"forecast_date":"2026-10-18","group_id":"CHANGE_CORE","headline_seats":10,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.99975,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.00025,"p_represented":0.99975,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_democrats","raw_b5_point_pp":7.690148236166573,"seat_q10":7.0,"seat_q90":13.0,"seat_range_display":"7–13","seat_range_high":13,"seat_range_low":7,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":7.550107238451345,"vote_q10_pp":5.579888336773677,"vote_q2_5_pp":4.825425714233762,"vote_q90_pp":9.701169972626499,"vote_q97_5_pp":11.178050844400476,"zero_seat_probability":0.00025},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":3.9503053370669323,"contest_party_id":"RAAM","display_name_en":"Raam","display_name_he":"רע״ם","expected_seats":3.80235,"forecast_date":"2026-10-18","group_id":"ARAB_LISTS","headline_seats":5,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.6507000000000001,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.3493,"p_represented":0.65075,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_raam","raw_b5_point_pp":4.023588423398455,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":7.0,"seat_range_display":"0, 4–8","seat_range_high":8,"seat_range_low":4,"seat_range_mode":"ZERO_SEPARATED_CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":3.950158874821774,"vote_q10_pp":2.3705624753363344,"vote_q2_5_pp":1.8658805222616144,"vote_q90_pp":5.798407076293243,"vote_q97_5_pp":7.301224438450097,"zero_seat_probability":0.34925},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":5.64224365367504,"contest_party_id":"HADASH_TAAL_BALAD","display_name_en":"Joint List","display_name_he":"הרשימה המשותפת","expected_seats":7.15775,"forecast_date":"2026-10-18","group_id":"ARAB_LISTS","headline_seats":7,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.9781,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.0219,"p_represented":0.9781,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_joint_list","raw_b5_point_pp":5.746914304041212,"seat_q10":5.0,"seat_q90":10.0,"seat_range_display":"5–10","seat_range_high":10,"seat_range_low":5,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":5.642307053172037,"vote_q10_pp":3.9371535650749934,"vote_q2_5_pp":3.3007155769200547,"vote_q90_pp":7.593741086132246,"vote_q97_5_pp":8.94585671056236,"zero_seat_probability":0.0219},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":1.2207565749966993,"contest_party_id":"BLUE_WHITE","display_name_en":"Blue and White","display_name_he":"כחול לבן","expected_seats":0.2255,"forecast_date":"2026-10-18","group_id":"UNCOMMITTED","headline_seats":0,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.04179999999999995,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.9582,"p_represented":0.0418,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_blue_white","raw_b5_point_pp":1.2434031306023683,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":0.0,"seat_range_display":"0","seat_range_high":null,"seat_range_low":null,"seat_range_mode":"ZERO_ONLY_RARE_REPRESENTATION","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":1.2207830605324197,"vote_q10_pp":0.3911177637222682,"vote_q2_5_pp":0.24003770133420377,"vote_q90_pp":2.3735721890178647,"vote_q97_5_pp":3.7279832965732522,"zero_seat_probability":0.9582},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":2.562047576916164,"contest_party_id":"K26_NATIVE_LIST::RESERVISTS_AND_NEW_ECONOMIC_PARTY","display_name_en":"Reservists–Economic","display_name_he":"המילואימניקים והכלכלית","expected_seats":1.35285,"forecast_date":"2026-10-18","group_id":"UNCOMMITTED","headline_seats":0,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.24124999999999996,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.75875,"p_represented":0.24125,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_reservists_economic","raw_b5_point_pp":2.609576751940397,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":5.0,"seat_range_display":"0, 4–8","seat_range_high":8,"seat_range_low":4,"seat_range_mode":"ZERO_SEPARATED_CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":2.5619920073135147,"vote_q10_pp":1.1613007753403621,"vote_q2_5_pp":0.8162185213955319,"vote_q90_pp":4.364070603840979,"vote_q97_5_pp":6.062595759454448,"zero_seat_probability":0.75875},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":17.325179638512996,"contest_party_id":"LIKUD","display_name_en":"Likud","display_name_he":"הליכוד","expected_seats":23.56349861292434,"forecast_date":"2026-10-18","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":24,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":1.0,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.0,"p_represented":1.0,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_likud","raw_b5_point_pp":17.646583309071026,"seat_q10":20.0,"seat_q90":27.0,"seat_range_display":"20–27","seat_range_high":27,"seat_range_low":20,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":17.57519231846174,"vote_q10_pp":15.315988337659183,"vote_q2_5_pp":14.260928040967412,"vote_q90_pp":19.889027409331202,"vote_q97_5_pp":21.334548746645343,"zero_seat_probability":0.0},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":5.674072203137139,"contest_party_id":"SHAS","display_name_en":"Shas","display_name_he":"ש״ס","expected_seats":7.551949791243371,"forecast_date":"2026-10-18","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":8,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.9940790341577027,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.005920965842297243,"p_represented":0.9940790341577027,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_shas","raw_b5_point_pp":5.779333312756207,"seat_q10":5.0,"seat_q90":10.0,"seat_range_display":"5–10","seat_range_high":10,"seat_range_low":5,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":5.889404135234667,"vote_q10_pp":4.310074270099284,"vote_q2_5_pp":3.691618317959942,"vote_q90_pp":7.624734353987113,"vote_q97_5_pp":8.802437154437577,"zero_seat_probability":0.005920965842297243},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":5.9112369834026435,"contest_party_id":"UNITED_TORAH_JUDAISM","display_name_en":"United Torah Judaism","display_name_he":"יהדות התורה","expected_seats":7.580600414161389,"forecast_date":"2026-10-18","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":8,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.9965402760810311,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.003459723918968898,"p_represented":0.9965402760810311,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_utj","raw_b5_point_pp":6.020897795217872,"seat_q10":6.0,"seat_q90":10.0,"seat_range_display":"6–10","seat_range_high":10,"seat_range_low":6,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":5.914561502222378,"vote_q10_pp":4.430049345370426,"vote_q2_5_pp":3.8058653913920053,"vote_q90_pp":7.531270491230311,"vote_q97_5_pp":8.585898487957088,"zero_seat_probability":0.003459723918968898},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":6.148316043002528,"contest_party_id":"OTZMA_YEHUDIT","display_name_en":"Otzma Yehudit","display_name_he":"עוצמה יהודית","expected_seats":7.860259521538028,"forecast_date":"2026-10-18","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":8,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.9969185339283753,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.003081466071624766,"p_represented":0.9969185339283753,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_otzma","raw_b5_point_pp":6.262374966788755,"seat_q10":6.0,"seat_q90":10.0,"seat_range_display":"6–10","seat_range_high":10,"seat_range_low":6,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":6.115455630185391,"vote_q10_pp":4.538110051040094,"vote_q2_5_pp":3.879343724165222,"vote_q90_pp":7.836501871356816,"vote_q97_5_pp":8.95489824962524,"zero_seat_probability":0.003081466071624766},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":4.6553497364986365,"contest_party_id":"K26_NATIVE_LIST::RZP_AND_ZEHUT","display_name_en":"Religious Zionism–Zehut","display_name_he":"הציונות הדתית וזהות","expected_seats":5.684069079831583,"forecast_date":"2026-10-18","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":6,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.9101778467947949,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.08982215320520516,"p_represented":0.910177846794795,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_religious_zionism_zehut","raw_b5_point_pp":4.741712274969288,"seat_q10":4.0,"seat_q90":8.0,"seat_range_display":"4–8","seat_range_high":8,"seat_range_low":4,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":4.744268026196783,"vote_q10_pp":3.2986225192026764,"vote_q2_5_pp":2.633484633844622,"vote_q90_pp":6.328006635485086,"vote_q97_5_pp":7.493290466643226,"zero_seat_probability":0.08982215320520516},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":3.1153946705796183,"contest_party_id":"WINTER_NEW_PARTY","display_name_en":"Amcha Yisrael","display_name_he":"עמך ישראל","expected_seats":1.8312506050841384,"forecast_date":"2026-10-18","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":0,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.34763230731990824,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.6523676926800918,"p_represented":0.34763230731990835,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_amcha_yisrael","raw_b5_point_pp":3.1731891236965937,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":6.0,"seat_range_display":"0, 4–7","seat_range_high":7,"seat_range_low":4,"seat_range_mode":"ZERO_SEPARATED_CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":2.9856448719972555,"vote_q10_pp":1.6518317143711754,"vote_q2_5_pp":1.2394965890032201,"vote_q90_pp":4.543488237249857,"vote_q97_5_pp":5.696176537787186,"zero_seat_probability":0.6523676926800918},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":0.5926263449995827,"contest_party_id":"K26_NATIVE_LIST::HAREDI_PUBLIC","display_name_en":"Haredi Public","display_name_he":"הציבור החרדי","expected_seats":0.010011459888459877,"forecast_date":"2026-10-18","group_id":"UNCOMMITTED","headline_seats":0,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.0017870803968713656,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.9982129196031286,"p_represented":0.0017870803968714636,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_haredi_public","raw_b5_point_pp":0.6036203021490281,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":0.0,"seat_range_display":"0","seat_range_high":null,"seat_range_low":null,"seat_range_mode":"ZERO_ONLY_RARE_REPRESENTATION","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":0.5647631848667263,"vote_q10_pp":0.12159896314868639,"vote_q2_5_pp":0.06452022907802454,"vote_q90_pp":1.2341741925111622,"vote_q97_5_pp":2.1241591331973226,"zero_seat_probability":0.9982129196031286},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":9.496255939717082,"contest_party_id":"K26_NATIVE_LIST::BEYAHAD_BENNETT","display_name_en":"Beyachad","display_name_he":"ביחד","expected_seats":12.478275042382625,"forecast_date":"2026-10-18","group_id":"CHANGE_CORE","headline_seats":13,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":1.0,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.0,"p_represented":1.0,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_beyachad","raw_b5_point_pp":9.672423320331067,"seat_q10":10.0,"seat_q90":15.0,"seat_range_display":"10–15","seat_range_high":15,"seat_range_low":10,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":9.48175113716917,"vote_q10_pp":7.539209053037095,"vote_q2_5_pp":6.689699274672138,"vote_q90_pp":11.553130028247486,"vote_q97_5_pp":12.817533999806937,"zero_seat_probability":0.0},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":17.11954298996529,"contest_party_id":"YASHAR_GADI_EISENKOT","display_name_en":"Yashar!","display_name_he":"ישר!","expected_seats":23.05416623757874,"forecast_date":"2026-10-18","group_id":"CHANGE_CORE","headline_seats":23,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":1.0,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.0,"p_represented":1.0,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_yashar","raw_b5_point_pp":17.437131844456562,"seat_q10":20.0,"seat_q90":26.0,"seat_range_display":"20–26","seat_range_high":26,"seat_range_low":20,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":17.20746009354942,"vote_q10_pp":15.15336647352339,"vote_q2_5_pp":14.16506322364578,"vote_q90_pp":19.330628200096296,"vote_q97_5_pp":20.618987358488916,"zero_seat_probability":0.0},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":6.636587551468527,"contest_party_id":"YISRAEL_BEITEINU","display_name_en":"Yisrael Beiteinu","display_name_he":"ישראל ביתנו","expected_seats":8.355001146249084,"forecast_date":"2026-10-18","group_id":"CHANGE_CORE","headline_seats":8,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.9993869550976036,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.0006130449023964249,"p_represented":0.9993869550976036,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_yisrael_beiteinu","raw_b5_point_pp":6.759704520153811,"seat_q10":6.0,"seat_q90":11.0,"seat_range_display":"6–11","seat_range_high":11,"seat_range_low":6,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":6.4711316893722675,"vote_q10_pp":4.8976035812245575,"vote_q2_5_pp":4.255231621411729,"vote_q90_pp":8.159984289736018,"vote_q97_5_pp":9.375486620579968,"zero_seat_probability":0.0006130449023964249},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":7.5500847560611195,"contest_party_id":"THE_DEMOCRATS","display_name_en":"The Democrats","display_name_he":"הדמוקרטים","expected_seats":9.761044940088148,"forecast_date":"2026-10-18","group_id":"CHANGE_CORE","headline_seats":10,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.9999542212096563,"p_below_legal_threshold":4.577879034368524e-05,"p_represented":0.9999542212096564,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_democrats","raw_b5_point_pp":7.690148236166573,"seat_q10":7.0,"seat_q90":12.0,"seat_range_display":"7–12","seat_range_high":12,"seat_range_low":7,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":7.496868412575946,"vote_q10_pp":5.817965561365116,"vote_q2_5_pp":5.110375383389096,"vote_q90_pp":9.270287362280783,"vote_q97_5_pp":10.49845468798907,"zero_seat_probability":4.577879034368524e-05},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":3.9503053370669323,"contest_party_id":"RAAM","display_name_en":"Raam","display_name_he":"רע״ם","expected_seats":3.941008547668105,"forecast_date":"2026-10-18","group_id":"ARAB_LISTS","headline_seats":5,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.7013704040365064,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.2986295959634936,"p_represented":0.7013886019053182,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_raam","raw_b5_point_pp":4.023588423398455,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":7.0,"seat_range_display":"4–7","seat_range_high":7,"seat_range_low":4,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":3.9460846649740406,"vote_q10_pp":2.4757917398841425,"vote_q2_5_pp":1.920469274326057,"vote_q90_pp":5.528031413239067,"vote_q97_5_pp":6.6754868390358215,"zero_seat_probability":0.29861139809468196},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":5.64224365367504,"contest_party_id":"HADASH_TAAL_BALAD","display_name_en":"Joint List","display_name_he":"הרשימה המשותפת","expected_seats":7.245635724614914,"forecast_date":"2026-10-18","group_id":"ARAB_LISTS","headline_seats":7,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.9912083977765466,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.008791602223453428,"p_represented":0.9912083977765467,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_joint_list","raw_b5_point_pp":5.746914304041212,"seat_q10":5.0,"seat_q90":10.0,"seat_range_display":"5–10","seat_range_high":10,"seat_range_low":5,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":5.681885523057947,"vote_q10_pp":4.164490460107451,"vote_q2_5_pp":3.585101743133616,"vote_q90_pp":7.3426790181077894,"vote_q97_5_pp":8.422918507323875,"zero_seat_probability":0.008791602223453428},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":1.2207565749966993,"contest_party_id":"BLUE_WHITE","display_name_en":"Blue and White","display_name_he":"כחול לבן","expected_seats":0.058767170431751656,"forecast_date":"2026-10-18","group_id":"UNCOMMITTED","headline_seats":0,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.010867404087843036,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.989132595912157,"p_represented":0.010867404087843075,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_blue_white","raw_b5_point_pp":1.2434031306023683,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":0.0,"seat_range_display":"0","seat_range_high":null,"seat_range_low":null,"seat_range_mode":"ZERO_ONLY_RARE_REPRESENTATION","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":1.123655662270374,"vote_q10_pp":0.3850690084383628,"vote_q2_5_pp":0.2379052817829059,"vote_q90_pp":2.1451649210386785,"vote_q97_5_pp":2.9368866545664956,"zero_seat_probability":0.989132595912157},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":2.562047576916164,"contest_party_id":"K26_NATIVE_LIST::RESERVISTS_AND_NEW_ECONOMIC_PARTY","display_name_en":"Reservists–Economic","display_name_he":"המילואימניקים והכלכלית","expected_seats":1.0244617063153334,"forecast_date":"2026-10-18","group_id":"UNCOMMITTED","headline_seats":0,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.19654278510541034,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.8034572148945897,"p_represented":0.1965427851054104,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_reservists_economic","raw_b5_point_pp":2.609576751940397,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":5.0,"seat_range_display":"0, 4–7","seat_range_high":7,"seat_range_low":4,"seat_range_mode":"ZERO_SEPARATED_CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":2.4018731478658952,"vote_q10_pp":1.1519112410828944,"vote_q2_5_pp":0.8111603749436033,"vote_q90_pp":3.9393812163084583,"vote_q97_5_pp":5.171747902974804,"zero_seat_probability":0.8034572148945897},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":17.325179638512996,"contest_party_id":"LIKUD","display_name_en":"Likud","display_name_he":"הליכוד","expected_seats":23.26815,"forecast_date":"2026-10-19","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":24,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":1.0,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.0,"p_represented":1.0,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_likud","raw_b5_point_pp":17.646583309071026,"seat_q10":20.0,"seat_q90":27.0,"seat_range_display":"20–27","seat_range_high":27,"seat_range_low":20,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":17.325159462098277,"vote_q10_pp":15.102664413220577,"vote_q2_5_pp":14.093408572300053,"vote_q90_pp":19.661288779427576,"vote_q97_5_pp":21.091112646919587,"zero_seat_probability":0.0},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":5.674072203137139,"contest_party_id":"SHAS","display_name_en":"Shas","display_name_he":"ש״ס","expected_seats":7.22355,"forecast_date":"2026-10-19","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":7,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.98405,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.01595,"p_represented":0.98405,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_shas","raw_b5_point_pp":5.779333312756207,"seat_q10":5.0,"seat_q90":10.0,"seat_range_display":"5–10","seat_range_high":10,"seat_range_low":5,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":5.674117034064874,"vote_q10_pp":4.019531107004518,"vote_q2_5_pp":3.4158457997169047,"vote_q90_pp":7.500287159990054,"vote_q97_5_pp":8.881475143343946,"zero_seat_probability":0.01595},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":5.9112369834026435,"contest_party_id":"UNITED_TORAH_JUDAISM","display_name_en":"United Torah Judaism","display_name_he":"יהדות התורה","expected_seats":7.57935,"forecast_date":"2026-10-19","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":8,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.99165,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.00835,"p_represented":0.99165,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_utj","raw_b5_point_pp":6.020897795217872,"seat_q10":5.0,"seat_q90":10.0,"seat_range_display":"5–10","seat_range_high":10,"seat_range_low":5,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":5.911239415686098,"vote_q10_pp":4.273426753195144,"vote_q2_5_pp":3.62716037193928,"vote_q90_pp":7.74395665875623,"vote_q97_5_pp":9.012236678094169,"zero_seat_probability":0.00835},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":6.148316043002528,"contest_party_id":"OTZMA_YEHUDIT","display_name_en":"Otzma Yehudit","display_name_he":"עוצמה יהודית","expected_seats":7.91,"forecast_date":"2026-10-19","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":8,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.99305,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.00695,"p_represented":0.99305,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_otzma","raw_b5_point_pp":6.262374966788755,"seat_q10":5.0,"seat_q90":11.0,"seat_range_display":"6–11","seat_range_high":11,"seat_range_low":6,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":6.148316231802122,"vote_q10_pp":4.365350167334415,"vote_q2_5_pp":3.6833419057259817,"vote_q90_pp":8.136033618667183,"vote_q97_5_pp":9.550416377664302,"zero_seat_probability":0.00695},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":4.6553497364986365,"contest_party_id":"K26_NATIVE_LIST::RZP_AND_ZEHUT","display_name_en":"Religious Zionism–Zehut","display_name_he":"הציונות הדתית וזהות","expected_seats":5.38525,"forecast_date":"2026-10-19","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":6,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.85895,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.14105,"p_represented":0.85895,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_religious_zionism_zehut","raw_b5_point_pp":4.741712274969288,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":8.0,"seat_range_display":"4–9","seat_range_high":9,"seat_range_low":4,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":4.655280160930094,"vote_q10_pp":3.0690791297005324,"vote_q2_5_pp":2.497829594124497,"vote_q90_pp":6.491000611687828,"vote_q97_5_pp":7.846567669946831,"zero_seat_probability":0.14105},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":3.1153946705796183,"contest_party_id":"WINTER_NEW_PARTY","display_name_en":"Amcha Yisrael","display_name_he":"עמך ישראל","expected_seats":2.09265,"forecast_date":"2026-10-19","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":0,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.37960000000000005,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.6204,"p_represented":0.3796,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_amcha_yisrael","raw_b5_point_pp":3.1731891236965937,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":6.0,"seat_range_display":"0, 4–8","seat_range_high":8,"seat_range_low":4,"seat_range_mode":"ZERO_SEPARATED_CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":3.1153297540481995,"vote_q10_pp":1.6803745817125233,"vote_q2_5_pp":1.2639709105963084,"vote_q90_pp":4.838707936520253,"vote_q97_5_pp":6.44587752891821,"zero_seat_probability":0.6204},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":0.5926263449995827,"contest_party_id":"K26_NATIVE_LIST::HAREDI_PUBLIC","display_name_en":"Haredi Public","display_name_he":"הציבור החרדי","expected_seats":0.04645,"forecast_date":"2026-10-19","group_id":"UNCOMMITTED","headline_seats":0,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.007900000000000018,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.9921,"p_represented":0.0079,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_haredi_public","raw_b5_point_pp":0.6036203021490281,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":0.0,"seat_range_display":"0","seat_range_high":null,"seat_range_low":null,"seat_range_mode":"ZERO_ONLY_RARE_REPRESENTATION","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":0.59260112592081,"vote_q10_pp":0.13059105222392345,"vote_q2_5_pp":0.07159083023189661,"vote_q90_pp":1.2425717817987951,"vote_q97_5_pp":2.2300813985565333,"zero_seat_probability":0.9921},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":9.496255939717082,"contest_party_id":"K26_NATIVE_LIST::BEYAHAD_BENNETT","display_name_en":"Beyachad","display_name_he":"ביחד","expected_seats":12.5259,"forecast_date":"2026-10-19","group_id":"CHANGE_CORE","headline_seats":13,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":1.0,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.0,"p_represented":1.0,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_beyachad","raw_b5_point_pp":9.672423320331067,"seat_q10":10.0,"seat_q90":16.0,"seat_range_display":"10–16","seat_range_high":16,"seat_range_low":10,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":9.496295823672288,"vote_q10_pp":7.459970950993785,"vote_q2_5_pp":6.598324422903297,"vote_q90_pp":11.711682012990314,"vote_q97_5_pp":13.112485416328711,"zero_seat_probability":0.0},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":17.11954298996529,"contest_party_id":"YASHAR_GADI_EISENKOT","display_name_en":"Yashar!","display_name_he":"ישר!","expected_seats":22.9893,"forecast_date":"2026-10-19","group_id":"CHANGE_CORE","headline_seats":23,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":1.0,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.0,"p_represented":1.0,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_yashar","raw_b5_point_pp":17.437131844456562,"seat_q10":20.0,"seat_q90":26.0,"seat_range_display":"20–26","seat_range_high":26,"seat_range_low":20,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":17.119483281582518,"vote_q10_pp":14.825586361807247,"vote_q2_5_pp":13.713307543141433,"vote_q90_pp":19.497999518684786,"vote_q97_5_pp":20.879474412568356,"zero_seat_probability":0.0},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":6.636587551468527,"contest_party_id":"YISRAEL_BEITEINU","display_name_en":"Yisrael Beiteinu","display_name_he":"ישראל ביתנו","expected_seats":8.60345,"forecast_date":"2026-10-19","group_id":"CHANGE_CORE","headline_seats":9,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.99865,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.00135,"p_represented":0.99865,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_yisrael_beiteinu","raw_b5_point_pp":6.759704520153811,"seat_q10":6.0,"seat_q90":11.0,"seat_range_display":"6–11","seat_range_high":11,"seat_range_low":6,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":6.636561438549848,"vote_q10_pp":4.818242676677775,"vote_q2_5_pp":4.122414479812931,"vote_q90_pp":8.656060348759798,"vote_q97_5_pp":10.10004259681685,"zero_seat_probability":0.00135},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":7.5500847560611195,"contest_party_id":"THE_DEMOCRATS","display_name_en":"The Democrats","display_name_he":"הדמוקרטים","expected_seats":9.86485,"forecast_date":"2026-10-19","group_id":"CHANGE_CORE","headline_seats":10,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.99995,"p_below_legal_threshold":5e-05,"p_represented":0.99995,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_democrats","raw_b5_point_pp":7.690148236166573,"seat_q10":7.0,"seat_q90":13.0,"seat_range_display":"7–13","seat_range_high":13,"seat_range_low":7,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":7.5501740528880354,"vote_q10_pp":5.646915144581913,"vote_q2_5_pp":4.880440769656941,"vote_q90_pp":9.634817712946248,"vote_q97_5_pp":11.064747170701493,"zero_seat_probability":5e-05},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":3.9503053370669323,"contest_party_id":"RAAM","display_name_en":"Raam","display_name_he":"רע״ם","expected_seats":3.81225,"forecast_date":"2026-10-19","group_id":"ARAB_LISTS","headline_seats":5,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.6562,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.3438,"p_represented":0.6562,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_raam","raw_b5_point_pp":4.023588423398455,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":7.0,"seat_range_display":"0, 4–8","seat_range_high":8,"seat_range_low":4,"seat_range_mode":"ZERO_SEPARATED_CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":3.950247226935337,"vote_q10_pp":2.40066277225359,"vote_q2_5_pp":1.9159282968676083,"vote_q90_pp":5.779273985844091,"vote_q97_5_pp":7.214935918509259,"zero_seat_probability":0.3438},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":5.64224365367504,"contest_party_id":"HADASH_TAAL_BALAD","display_name_en":"Joint List","display_name_he":"הרשימה המשותפת","expected_seats":7.168,"forecast_date":"2026-10-19","group_id":"ARAB_LISTS","headline_seats":7,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.98045,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.01955,"p_represented":0.98045,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_joint_list","raw_b5_point_pp":5.746914304041212,"seat_q10":5.0,"seat_q90":10.0,"seat_range_display":"5–10","seat_range_high":10,"seat_range_low":5,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":5.642297934868578,"vote_q10_pp":3.9584794645113437,"vote_q2_5_pp":3.3193138510978804,"vote_q90_pp":7.496130867083756,"vote_q97_5_pp":8.897937447511234,"zero_seat_probability":0.01955},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":1.2207565749966993,"contest_party_id":"BLUE_WHITE","display_name_en":"Blue and White","display_name_he":"כחול לבן","expected_seats":0.207,"forecast_date":"2026-10-19","group_id":"UNCOMMITTED","headline_seats":0,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.03839999999999999,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.9616,"p_represented":0.0384,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_blue_white","raw_b5_point_pp":1.2434031306023683,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":0.0,"seat_range_display":"0","seat_range_high":null,"seat_range_low":null,"seat_range_mode":"ZERO_ONLY_RARE_REPRESENTATION","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":1.2207464176432,"vote_q10_pp":0.40530557166838416,"vote_q2_5_pp":0.25825881879307067,"vote_q90_pp":2.3259577278811205,"vote_q97_5_pp":3.6667408332865925,"zero_seat_probability":0.9616},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":2.562047576916164,"contest_party_id":"K26_NATIVE_LIST::RESERVISTS_AND_NEW_ECONOMIC_PARTY","display_name_en":"Reservists–Economic","display_name_he":"המילואימניקים והכלכלית","expected_seats":1.32385,"forecast_date":"2026-10-19","group_id":"UNCOMMITTED","headline_seats":0,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.23750000000000004,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.7625,"p_represented":0.2375,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_reservists_economic","raw_b5_point_pp":2.609576751940397,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":5.0,"seat_range_display":"0, 4–8","seat_range_high":8,"seat_range_low":4,"seat_range_mode":"ZERO_SEPARATED_CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":2.5621506393097198,"vote_q10_pp":1.1772904405492282,"vote_q2_5_pp":0.8356881538376777,"vote_q90_pp":4.3319429029012335,"vote_q97_5_pp":6.011140450444388,"zero_seat_probability":0.7625},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":17.325179638512996,"contest_party_id":"LIKUD","display_name_en":"Likud","display_name_he":"הליכוד","expected_seats":23.533563809651866,"forecast_date":"2026-10-19","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":24,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":1.0,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.0,"p_represented":1.0,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_likud","raw_b5_point_pp":17.646583309071026,"seat_q10":20.0,"seat_q90":27.0,"seat_range_display":"20–27","seat_range_high":27,"seat_range_low":20,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":17.553789570186712,"vote_q10_pp":15.358347601657018,"vote_q2_5_pp":14.341511294125478,"vote_q90_pp":19.842476618839907,"vote_q97_5_pp":21.247092843234107,"zero_seat_probability":0.0},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":5.674072203137139,"contest_party_id":"SHAS","display_name_en":"Shas","display_name_he":"ש״ס","expected_seats":7.530852107576839,"forecast_date":"2026-10-19","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":8,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.9948442936060237,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.005155706393976347,"p_represented":0.9948442936060236,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_shas","raw_b5_point_pp":5.779333312756207,"seat_q10":5.0,"seat_q90":10.0,"seat_range_display":"5–10","seat_range_high":10,"seat_range_low":5,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":5.875460757676266,"vote_q10_pp":4.314077548617209,"vote_q2_5_pp":3.702779019159417,"vote_q90_pp":7.55624651942025,"vote_q97_5_pp":8.694592329368675,"zero_seat_probability":0.005155706393976347},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":5.9112369834026435,"contest_party_id":"UNITED_TORAH_JUDAISM","display_name_en":"United Torah Judaism","display_name_he":"יהדות התורה","expected_seats":7.574335809311567,"forecast_date":"2026-10-19","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":8,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.997131079020891,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.002868920979109006,"p_represented":0.9971310790208909,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_utj","raw_b5_point_pp":6.020897795217872,"seat_q10":6.0,"seat_q90":10.0,"seat_range_display":"6–10","seat_range_high":10,"seat_range_low":6,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":5.903307634014025,"vote_q10_pp":4.45475419816471,"vote_q2_5_pp":3.8245370067103877,"vote_q90_pp":7.490703906367692,"vote_q97_5_pp":8.51729314070429,"zero_seat_probability":0.002868920979109006},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":6.148316043002528,"contest_party_id":"OTZMA_YEHUDIT","display_name_en":"Otzma Yehudit","display_name_he":"עוצמה יהודית","expected_seats":7.874487319860888,"forecast_date":"2026-10-19","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":8,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.9974768292091895,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.0025231707908105693,"p_represented":0.9974768292091893,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_otzma","raw_b5_point_pp":6.262374966788755,"seat_q10":6.0,"seat_q90":10.0,"seat_range_display":"6–10","seat_range_high":10,"seat_range_low":6,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":6.121434285345687,"vote_q10_pp":4.561278589401006,"vote_q2_5_pp":3.9162708557259327,"vote_q90_pp":7.785094808031279,"vote_q97_5_pp":8.914784082265438,"zero_seat_probability":0.0025231707908105693},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":4.6553497364986365,"contest_party_id":"K26_NATIVE_LIST::RZP_AND_ZEHUT","display_name_en":"Religious Zionism–Zehut","display_name_he":"הציונות הדתית וזהות","expected_seats":5.7142169791372455,"forecast_date":"2026-10-19","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":6,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.9159088426177504,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.08409115738224955,"p_represented":0.9159088426177504,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_religious_zionism_zehut","raw_b5_point_pp":4.741712274969288,"seat_q10":4.0,"seat_q90":8.0,"seat_range_display":"5–8","seat_range_high":8,"seat_range_low":5,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":4.755983406096257,"vote_q10_pp":3.333408627611862,"vote_q2_5_pp":2.680491944821106,"vote_q90_pp":6.326165972270801,"vote_q97_5_pp":7.381950380276258,"zero_seat_probability":0.08409115738224955},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":3.1153946705796183,"contest_party_id":"WINTER_NEW_PARTY","display_name_en":"Amcha Yisrael","display_name_he":"עמך ישראל","expected_seats":1.8376713562664215,"forecast_date":"2026-10-19","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":0,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.3504821532267258,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.6495178467732742,"p_represented":0.3504821532267257,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_amcha_yisrael","raw_b5_point_pp":3.1731891236965937,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":6.0,"seat_range_display":"0, 4–7","seat_range_high":7,"seat_range_low":4,"seat_range_mode":"ZERO_SEPARATED_CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":2.993729680545915,"vote_q10_pp":1.670748641928395,"vote_q2_5_pp":1.2656120592717757,"vote_q90_pp":4.553567090545529,"vote_q97_5_pp":5.7266437698898836,"zero_seat_probability":0.6495178467732742},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":0.5926263449995827,"contest_party_id":"K26_NATIVE_LIST::HAREDI_PUBLIC","display_name_en":"Haredi Public","display_name_he":"הציבור החרדי","expected_seats":0.010215518678541563,"forecast_date":"2026-10-19","group_id":"UNCOMMITTED","headline_seats":0,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.0017903692017400274,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.99820963079826,"p_represented":0.0017903692017400747,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_haredi_public","raw_b5_point_pp":0.6036203021490281,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":0.0,"seat_range_display":"0","seat_range_high":null,"seat_range_low":null,"seat_range_mode":"ZERO_ONLY_RARE_REPRESENTATION","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":0.560861344858367,"vote_q10_pp":0.12868520276147097,"vote_q2_5_pp":0.07167194185325686,"vote_q90_pp":1.191610861039756,"vote_q97_5_pp":2.021140506077978,"zero_seat_probability":0.99820963079826},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":9.496255939717082,"contest_party_id":"K26_NATIVE_LIST::BEYAHAD_BENNETT","display_name_en":"Beyachad","display_name_he":"ביחד","expected_seats":12.497634599394537,"forecast_date":"2026-10-19","group_id":"CHANGE_CORE","headline_seats":13,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":1.0,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.0,"p_represented":1.0,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_beyachad","raw_b5_point_pp":9.672423320331067,"seat_q10":10.0,"seat_q90":15.0,"seat_range_display":"10–15","seat_range_high":15,"seat_range_low":10,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":9.495933629525709,"vote_q10_pp":7.576175812918512,"vote_q2_5_pp":6.746596263350567,"vote_q90_pp":11.55699790447537,"vote_q97_5_pp":12.831315300970772,"zero_seat_probability":0.0},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":17.11954298996529,"contest_party_id":"YASHAR_GADI_EISENKOT","display_name_en":"Yashar!","display_name_he":"ישר!","expected_seats":23.06182581070149,"forecast_date":"2026-10-19","group_id":"CHANGE_CORE","headline_seats":23,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":1.0,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.0,"p_represented":1.0,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_yashar","raw_b5_point_pp":17.437131844456562,"seat_q10":20.0,"seat_q90":26.0,"seat_range_display":"20–26","seat_range_high":26,"seat_range_low":20,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":17.2130189834583,"vote_q10_pp":15.223482646520957,"vote_q2_5_pp":14.251032604509533,"vote_q90_pp":19.275192482522737,"vote_q97_5_pp":20.49738307825747,"zero_seat_probability":0.0},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":6.636587551468527,"contest_party_id":"YISRAEL_BEITEINU","display_name_en":"Yisrael Beiteinu","display_name_he":"ישראל ביתנו","expected_seats":8.376244066707024,"forecast_date":"2026-10-19","group_id":"CHANGE_CORE","headline_seats":8,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.9995042920803918,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.0004957079196082047,"p_represented":0.9995042920803917,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_yisrael_beiteinu","raw_b5_point_pp":6.759704520153811,"seat_q10":6.0,"seat_q90":11.0,"seat_range_display":"6–11","seat_range_high":11,"seat_range_low":6,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":6.485248368721598,"vote_q10_pp":4.904436877936812,"vote_q2_5_pp":4.280244391059663,"vote_q90_pp":8.177413233356862,"vote_q97_5_pp":9.328569668830394,"zero_seat_probability":0.0004957079196082047},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":7.5500847560611195,"contest_party_id":"THE_DEMOCRATS","display_name_en":"The Democrats","display_name_he":"הדמוקרטים","expected_seats":9.754752612958429,"forecast_date":"2026-10-19","group_id":"CHANGE_CORE","headline_seats":10,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.9999875638013244,"p_below_legal_threshold":1.2436198675661923e-05,"p_represented":0.9999875638013244,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_democrats","raw_b5_point_pp":7.690148236166573,"seat_q10":7.0,"seat_q90":12.0,"seat_range_display":"7–12","seat_range_high":12,"seat_range_low":7,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":7.4872211157716455,"vote_q10_pp":5.8321818792829205,"vote_q2_5_pp":5.122847817386968,"vote_q90_pp":9.224647350875824,"vote_q97_5_pp":10.419056157432973,"zero_seat_probability":1.2436198675661923e-05},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":3.9503053370669323,"contest_party_id":"RAAM","display_name_en":"Raam","display_name_he":"רע״ם","expected_seats":3.9480695709831637,"forecast_date":"2026-10-19","group_id":"ARAB_LISTS","headline_seats":5,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.7044927193169097,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.29550728068309023,"p_represented":0.7044927193169097,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_raam","raw_b5_point_pp":4.023588423398455,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":7.0,"seat_range_display":"4–7","seat_range_high":7,"seat_range_low":4,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":3.9482629161046283,"vote_q10_pp":2.4828062188707847,"vote_q2_5_pp":1.9462399878713905,"vote_q90_pp":5.550045109121408,"vote_q97_5_pp":6.580713765323678,"zero_seat_probability":0.29550728068309023},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":5.64224365367504,"contest_party_id":"HADASH_TAAL_BALAD","display_name_en":"Joint List","display_name_he":"הרשימה המשותפת","expected_seats":7.245518824323371,"forecast_date":"2026-10-19","group_id":"ARAB_LISTS","headline_seats":7,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.9917287901095683,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.008271209890431733,"p_represented":0.9917287901095683,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_joint_list","raw_b5_point_pp":5.746914304041212,"seat_q10":5.0,"seat_q90":9.0,"seat_range_display":"5–9","seat_range_high":9,"seat_range_low":5,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":5.678223127653241,"vote_q10_pp":4.170177371116195,"vote_q2_5_pp":3.5807861814526776,"vote_q90_pp":7.283838724243398,"vote_q97_5_pp":8.356773557260846,"zero_seat_probability":0.008271209890431733},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":1.2207565749966993,"contest_party_id":"BLUE_WHITE","display_name_en":"Blue and White","display_name_he":"כחול לבן","expected_seats":0.052268156152936125,"forecast_date":"2026-10-19","group_id":"UNCOMMITTED","headline_seats":0,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.009656919763554983,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.990343080236445,"p_represented":0.00965691976355491,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_blue_white","raw_b5_point_pp":1.2434031306023683,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":0.0,"seat_range_display":"0","seat_range_high":null,"seat_range_low":null,"seat_range_mode":"ZERO_ONLY_RARE_REPRESENTATION","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":1.1314778385263713,"vote_q10_pp":0.4014659647851361,"vote_q2_5_pp":0.257135457346656,"vote_q90_pp":2.1331923334659435,"vote_q97_5_pp":2.9412185142398104,"zero_seat_probability":0.990343080236445},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":2.562047576916164,"contest_party_id":"K26_NATIVE_LIST::RESERVISTS_AND_NEW_ECONOMIC_PARTY","display_name_en":"Reservists–Economic","display_name_he":"המילואימניקים והכלכלית","expected_seats":0.9883434582956766,"forecast_date":"2026-10-19","group_id":"UNCOMMITTED","headline_seats":0,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.1907194585010542,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.8092805414989458,"p_represented":0.1907194585010542,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_reservists_economic","raw_b5_point_pp":2.609576751940397,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":5.0,"seat_range_display":"0, 4–7","seat_range_high":7,"seat_range_low":4,"seat_range_mode":"ZERO_SEPARATED_CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":2.396047341515274,"vote_q10_pp":1.1626003825399538,"vote_q2_5_pp":0.8254784178800743,"vote_q90_pp":3.9436221678931966,"vote_q97_5_pp":5.1145519839183535,"zero_seat_probability":0.8092805414989458},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":17.325179638512996,"contest_party_id":"LIKUD","display_name_en":"Likud","display_name_he":"הליכוד","expected_seats":23.2757,"forecast_date":"2026-10-20","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":24,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":1.0,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.0,"p_represented":1.0,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_likud","raw_b5_point_pp":17.646583309071026,"seat_q10":20.0,"seat_q90":26.0,"seat_range_display":"20–26","seat_range_high":26,"seat_range_low":20,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":17.325204449444723,"vote_q10_pp":15.169264690018341,"vote_q2_5_pp":14.133211239876609,"vote_q90_pp":19.544642244955234,"vote_q97_5_pp":20.924208619832388,"zero_seat_probability":0.0},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":5.674072203137139,"contest_party_id":"SHAS","display_name_en":"Shas","display_name_he":"ש״ס","expected_seats":7.233,"forecast_date":"2026-10-20","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":7,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.98605,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.01395,"p_represented":0.98605,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_shas","raw_b5_point_pp":5.779333312756207,"seat_q10":5.0,"seat_q90":10.0,"seat_range_display":"5–10","seat_range_high":10,"seat_range_low":5,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":5.674017768271522,"vote_q10_pp":4.070272912997131,"vote_q2_5_pp":3.4510074941578783,"vote_q90_pp":7.459152717000896,"vote_q97_5_pp":8.694797790579704,"zero_seat_probability":0.01395},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":5.9112369834026435,"contest_party_id":"UNITED_TORAH_JUDAISM","display_name_en":"United Torah Judaism","display_name_he":"יהדות התורה","expected_seats":7.5897,"forecast_date":"2026-10-20","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":8,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.994,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.006,"p_represented":0.994,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_utj","raw_b5_point_pp":6.020897795217872,"seat_q10":5.0,"seat_q90":10.0,"seat_range_display":"5–10","seat_range_high":10,"seat_range_low":5,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":5.911196488323949,"vote_q10_pp":4.311304904109762,"vote_q2_5_pp":3.678822491979962,"vote_q90_pp":7.704309787108569,"vote_q97_5_pp":8.934445391320734,"zero_seat_probability":0.006},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":6.148316043002528,"contest_party_id":"OTZMA_YEHUDIT","display_name_en":"Otzma Yehudit","display_name_he":"עוצמה יהודית","expected_seats":7.9198,"forecast_date":"2026-10-20","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":8,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.99485,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.00515,"p_represented":0.99485,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_otzma","raw_b5_point_pp":6.262374966788755,"seat_q10":6.0,"seat_q90":11.0,"seat_range_display":"6–11","seat_range_high":11,"seat_range_low":6,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":6.148379509252078,"vote_q10_pp":4.404669056333779,"vote_q2_5_pp":3.7486345841877085,"vote_q90_pp":8.06463202620471,"vote_q97_5_pp":9.474006834428206,"zero_seat_probability":0.00515},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":4.6553497364986365,"contest_party_id":"K26_NATIVE_LIST::RZP_AND_ZEHUT","display_name_en":"Religious Zionism–Zehut","display_name_he":"הציונות הדתית וזהות","expected_seats":5.4101,"forecast_date":"2026-10-20","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":6,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.86565,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.13435,"p_represented":0.86565,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_religious_zionism_zehut","raw_b5_point_pp":4.741712274969288,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":8.0,"seat_range_display":"4–9","seat_range_high":9,"seat_range_low":4,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":4.6553084943633225,"vote_q10_pp":3.0925797927173524,"vote_q2_5_pp":2.5372583430527444,"vote_q90_pp":6.436349282531138,"vote_q97_5_pp":7.770811017123627,"zero_seat_probability":0.13435},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":3.1153946705796183,"contest_party_id":"WINTER_NEW_PARTY","display_name_en":"Amcha Yisrael","display_name_he":"עמך ישראל","expected_seats":2.0641,"forecast_date":"2026-10-20","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":0,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.3788,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.6212,"p_represented":0.3788,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_amcha_yisrael","raw_b5_point_pp":3.1731891236965937,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":6.0,"seat_range_display":"0, 4–7","seat_range_high":7,"seat_range_low":4,"seat_range_mode":"ZERO_SEPARATED_CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":3.115316052310356,"vote_q10_pp":1.733207397158036,"vote_q2_5_pp":1.3132628423201484,"vote_q90_pp":4.790637376293688,"vote_q97_5_pp":6.237224838805791,"zero_seat_probability":0.6212},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":0.5926263449995827,"contest_party_id":"K26_NATIVE_LIST::HAREDI_PUBLIC","display_name_en":"Haredi Public","display_name_he":"הציבור החרדי","expected_seats":0.04645,"forecast_date":"2026-10-20","group_id":"UNCOMMITTED","headline_seats":0,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.008499999999999952,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.9915,"p_represented":0.0085,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_haredi_public","raw_b5_point_pp":0.6036203021490281,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":0.0,"seat_range_display":"0","seat_range_high":null,"seat_range_low":null,"seat_range_mode":"ZERO_ONLY_RARE_REPRESENTATION","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":0.592611990495952,"vote_q10_pp":0.13480176859076817,"vote_q2_5_pp":0.07338365215957877,"vote_q90_pp":1.2268485944814682,"vote_q97_5_pp":2.2803900281680667,"zero_seat_probability":0.9915},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":9.496255939717082,"contest_party_id":"K26_NATIVE_LIST::BEYAHAD_BENNETT","display_name_en":"Beyachad","display_name_he":"ביחד","expected_seats":12.5324,"forecast_date":"2026-10-20","group_id":"CHANGE_CORE","headline_seats":13,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":1.0,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.0,"p_represented":1.0,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_beyachad","raw_b5_point_pp":9.672423320331067,"seat_q10":10.0,"seat_q90":16.0,"seat_range_display":"10–16","seat_range_high":16,"seat_range_low":10,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":9.496285768492275,"vote_q10_pp":7.531049292968775,"vote_q2_5_pp":6.694995714406674,"vote_q90_pp":11.64079678973675,"vote_q97_5_pp":13.000327237779551,"zero_seat_probability":0.0},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":17.11954298996529,"contest_party_id":"YASHAR_GADI_EISENKOT","display_name_en":"Yashar!","display_name_he":"ישר!","expected_seats":22.99305,"forecast_date":"2026-10-20","group_id":"CHANGE_CORE","headline_seats":23,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":1.0,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.0,"p_represented":1.0,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_yashar","raw_b5_point_pp":17.437131844456562,"seat_q10":20.0,"seat_q90":26.0,"seat_range_display":"20–26","seat_range_high":26,"seat_range_low":20,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":17.119607285988938,"vote_q10_pp":14.88826358533236,"vote_q2_5_pp":13.808594413325896,"vote_q90_pp":19.459973578489095,"vote_q97_5_pp":20.850487797578616,"zero_seat_probability":0.0},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":6.636587551468527,"contest_party_id":"YISRAEL_BEITEINU","display_name_en":"Yisrael Beiteinu","display_name_he":"ישראל ביתנו","expected_seats":8.6026,"forecast_date":"2026-10-20","group_id":"CHANGE_CORE","headline_seats":9,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.9986,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.0014,"p_represented":0.9986,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_yisrael_beiteinu","raw_b5_point_pp":6.759704520153811,"seat_q10":6.0,"seat_q90":11.0,"seat_range_display":"6–11","seat_range_high":11,"seat_range_low":6,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":6.636634397335516,"vote_q10_pp":4.862833183739951,"vote_q2_5_pp":4.145099912137325,"vote_q90_pp":8.601249867613207,"vote_q97_5_pp":9.919576057249955,"zero_seat_probability":0.0014},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":7.5500847560611195,"contest_party_id":"THE_DEMOCRATS","display_name_en":"The Democrats","display_name_he":"הדמוקרטים","expected_seats":9.86305,"forecast_date":"2026-10-20","group_id":"CHANGE_CORE","headline_seats":10,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":1.0,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.0,"p_represented":1.0,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_democrats","raw_b5_point_pp":7.690148236166573,"seat_q10":7.0,"seat_q90":13.0,"seat_range_display":"7–13","seat_range_high":13,"seat_range_low":7,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":7.549992941027578,"vote_q10_pp":5.671201851274156,"vote_q2_5_pp":4.907828127277667,"vote_q90_pp":9.614356802385487,"vote_q97_5_pp":10.95128129947328,"zero_seat_probability":0.0},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":3.9503053370669323,"contest_party_id":"RAAM","display_name_en":"Raam","display_name_he":"רע״ם","expected_seats":3.82195,"forecast_date":"2026-10-20","group_id":"ARAB_LISTS","headline_seats":5,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.6616,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.3384,"p_represented":0.6616,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_raam","raw_b5_point_pp":4.023588423398455,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":7.0,"seat_range_display":"0, 4–8","seat_range_high":8,"seat_range_low":4,"seat_range_mode":"ZERO_SEPARATED_CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":3.950490730081033,"vote_q10_pp":2.4470327652423314,"vote_q2_5_pp":1.9393393848672444,"vote_q90_pp":5.727976561497575,"vote_q97_5_pp":7.1481507416296655,"zero_seat_probability":0.3384},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":5.64224365367504,"contest_party_id":"HADASH_TAAL_BALAD","display_name_en":"Joint List","display_name_he":"הרשימה המשותפת","expected_seats":7.17725,"forecast_date":"2026-10-20","group_id":"ARAB_LISTS","headline_seats":7,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.98305,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.01695,"p_represented":0.98305,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_joint_list","raw_b5_point_pp":5.746914304041212,"seat_q10":5.0,"seat_q90":10.0,"seat_range_display":"5–10","seat_range_high":10,"seat_range_low":5,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":5.642271501986934,"vote_q10_pp":4.005392774600838,"vote_q2_5_pp":3.3867192224489653,"vote_q90_pp":7.49180134093275,"vote_q97_5_pp":8.758900357914746,"zero_seat_probability":0.01695},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":1.2207565749966993,"contest_party_id":"BLUE_WHITE","display_name_en":"Blue and White","display_name_he":"כחול לבן","expected_seats":0.1891,"forecast_date":"2026-10-20","group_id":"UNCOMMITTED","headline_seats":0,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.0353,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.9647,"p_represented":0.0353,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_blue_white","raw_b5_point_pp":1.2434031306023683,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":0.0,"seat_range_display":"0","seat_range_high":null,"seat_range_low":null,"seat_range_mode":"ZERO_ONLY_RARE_REPRESENTATION","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":1.2206530094555508,"vote_q10_pp":0.4117330206288156,"vote_q2_5_pp":0.25730763672193757,"vote_q90_pp":2.304228949366482,"vote_q97_5_pp":3.584785577457058,"zero_seat_probability":0.9647},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":2.562047576916164,"contest_party_id":"K26_NATIVE_LIST::RESERVISTS_AND_NEW_ECONOMIC_PARTY","display_name_en":"Reservists–Economic","display_name_he":"המילואימניקים והכלכלית","expected_seats":1.28175,"forecast_date":"2026-10-20","group_id":"UNCOMMITTED","headline_seats":0,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.23295,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.76705,"p_represented":0.233,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_reservists_economic","raw_b5_point_pp":2.609576751940397,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":5.0,"seat_range_display":"0, 4–8","seat_range_high":8,"seat_range_low":4,"seat_range_mode":"ZERO_SEPARATED_CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":2.562029613170273,"vote_q10_pp":1.2182692136993185,"vote_q2_5_pp":0.8601516047567102,"vote_q90_pp":4.269169824721133,"vote_q97_5_pp":5.943915244669198,"zero_seat_probability":0.767},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":17.325179638512996,"contest_party_id":"LIKUD","display_name_en":"Likud","display_name_he":"הליכוד","expected_seats":23.542999590157667,"forecast_date":"2026-10-20","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":24,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":1.0,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.0,"p_represented":1.0,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_likud","raw_b5_point_pp":17.646583309071026,"seat_q10":21.0,"seat_q90":27.0,"seat_range_display":"21–27","seat_range_high":27,"seat_range_low":21,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":17.550091134573883,"vote_q10_pp":15.442694660200697,"vote_q2_5_pp":14.40901142369287,"vote_q90_pp":19.716522487927122,"vote_q97_5_pp":21.08967500079231,"zero_seat_probability":0.0},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":5.674072203137139,"contest_party_id":"SHAS","display_name_en":"Shas","display_name_he":"ש״ס","expected_seats":7.540968888738134,"forecast_date":"2026-10-20","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":8,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.9955290935353983,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.004470906464601659,"p_represented":0.9955290935353984,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_shas","raw_b5_point_pp":5.779333312756207,"seat_q10":5.0,"seat_q90":10.0,"seat_range_display":"5–10","seat_range_high":10,"seat_range_low":5,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":5.879492995691038,"vote_q10_pp":4.358092358238215,"vote_q2_5_pp":3.724478962127378,"vote_q90_pp":7.538112752252407,"vote_q97_5_pp":8.569573165305151,"zero_seat_probability":0.004470906464601659},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":5.9112369834026435,"contest_party_id":"UNITED_TORAH_JUDAISM","display_name_en":"United Torah Judaism","display_name_he":"יהדות התורה","expected_seats":7.573210862671816,"forecast_date":"2026-10-20","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":8,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.9976178383226145,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.0023821616773854488,"p_represented":0.9976178383226146,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_utj","raw_b5_point_pp":6.020897795217872,"seat_q10":6.0,"seat_q90":10.0,"seat_range_display":"6–10","seat_range_high":10,"seat_range_low":6,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":5.8981901988864704,"vote_q10_pp":4.475056328082047,"vote_q2_5_pp":3.8596142032220957,"vote_q90_pp":7.440916572292773,"vote_q97_5_pp":8.4372889510872,"zero_seat_probability":0.0023821616773854488},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":6.148316043002528,"contest_party_id":"OTZMA_YEHUDIT","display_name_en":"Otzma Yehudit","display_name_he":"עוצמה יהודית","expected_seats":7.886435990659152,"forecast_date":"2026-10-20","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":8,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.9981804990118638,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.0018195009881361757,"p_represented":0.9981804990118639,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_otzma","raw_b5_point_pp":6.262374966788755,"seat_q10":6.0,"seat_q90":10.0,"seat_range_display":"6–10","seat_range_high":10,"seat_range_low":6,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":6.12522601628243,"vote_q10_pp":4.600755373438273,"vote_q2_5_pp":3.980844228728626,"vote_q90_pp":7.755614149860163,"vote_q97_5_pp":8.826840377329725,"zero_seat_probability":0.0018195009881361757},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":4.6553497364986365,"contest_party_id":"K26_NATIVE_LIST::RZP_AND_ZEHUT","display_name_en":"Religious Zionism–Zehut","display_name_he":"הציונות הדתית וזהות","expected_seats":5.703961344874691,"forecast_date":"2026-10-20","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":6,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.9178223147710693,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.08217768522893071,"p_represented":0.9178223147710693,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_religious_zionism_zehut","raw_b5_point_pp":4.741712274969288,"seat_q10":4.0,"seat_q90":8.0,"seat_range_display":"5–8","seat_range_high":8,"seat_range_low":5,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":4.739227532183012,"vote_q10_pp":3.3428409859578108,"vote_q2_5_pp":2.7191527407782727,"vote_q90_pp":6.2885245532389815,"vote_q97_5_pp":7.342169367857648,"zero_seat_probability":0.08217768522893071},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":3.1153946705796183,"contest_party_id":"WINTER_NEW_PARTY","display_name_en":"Amcha Yisrael","display_name_he":"עמך ישראל","expected_seats":1.8165914570754769,"forecast_date":"2026-10-20","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":0,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.34827901674371264,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.6517209832562874,"p_represented":0.34827901674371264,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_amcha_yisrael","raw_b5_point_pp":3.1731891236965937,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":6.0,"seat_range_display":"0, 4–7","seat_range_high":7,"seat_range_low":4,"seat_range_mode":"ZERO_SEPARATED_CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":3.001694136574457,"vote_q10_pp":1.7223143801760628,"vote_q2_5_pp":1.3150561323951826,"vote_q90_pp":4.509963558209884,"vote_q97_5_pp":5.6319809840350405,"zero_seat_probability":0.6517209832562874},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":0.5926263449995827,"contest_party_id":"K26_NATIVE_LIST::HAREDI_PUBLIC","display_name_en":"Haredi Public","display_name_he":"הציבור החרדי","expected_seats":0.01089234600644762,"forecast_date":"2026-10-20","group_id":"UNCOMMITTED","headline_seats":0,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.0019942495271390026,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.998005750472861,"p_represented":0.0019942495271391136,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_haredi_public","raw_b5_point_pp":0.6036203021490281,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":0.0,"seat_range_display":"0","seat_range_high":null,"seat_range_low":null,"seat_range_mode":"ZERO_ONLY_RARE_REPRESENTATION","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":0.56757668770045,"vote_q10_pp":0.13438527848356496,"vote_q2_5_pp":0.07377011258122333,"vote_q90_pp":1.195172737930201,"vote_q97_5_pp":2.080769604275622,"zero_seat_probability":0.998005750472861},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":9.496255939717082,"contest_party_id":"K26_NATIVE_LIST::BEYAHAD_BENNETT","display_name_en":"Beyachad","display_name_he":"ביחד","expected_seats":12.489415596274458,"forecast_date":"2026-10-20","group_id":"CHANGE_CORE","headline_seats":13,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":1.0,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.0,"p_represented":1.0,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_beyachad","raw_b5_point_pp":9.672423320331067,"seat_q10":10.0,"seat_q90":15.0,"seat_range_display":"10–15","seat_range_high":15,"seat_range_low":10,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":9.48282433075872,"vote_q10_pp":7.649523297527975,"vote_q2_5_pp":6.784701325410683,"vote_q90_pp":11.471582350981883,"vote_q97_5_pp":12.732359214649836,"zero_seat_probability":0.0},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":17.11954298996529,"contest_party_id":"YASHAR_GADI_EISENKOT","display_name_en":"Yashar!","display_name_he":"ישר!","expected_seats":23.04449057005145,"forecast_date":"2026-10-20","group_id":"CHANGE_CORE","headline_seats":23,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":1.0,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.0,"p_represented":1.0,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_yashar","raw_b5_point_pp":17.437131844456562,"seat_q10":20.0,"seat_q90":26.0,"seat_range_display":"20–26","seat_range_high":26,"seat_range_low":20,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":17.192029685230786,"vote_q10_pp":15.253818542014628,"vote_q2_5_pp":14.281923567814262,"vote_q90_pp":19.258509372307238,"vote_q97_5_pp":20.48227563809157,"zero_seat_probability":0.0},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":6.636587551468527,"contest_party_id":"YISRAEL_BEITEINU","display_name_en":"Yisrael Beiteinu","display_name_he":"ישראל ביתנו","expected_seats":8.385286605484112,"forecast_date":"2026-10-20","group_id":"CHANGE_CORE","headline_seats":8,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.999528091742621,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.00047190825737893435,"p_represented":0.9995280917426211,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_yisrael_beiteinu","raw_b5_point_pp":6.759704520153811,"seat_q10":6.0,"seat_q90":11.0,"seat_range_display":"6–11","seat_range_high":11,"seat_range_low":6,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":6.488693953921647,"vote_q10_pp":4.967027224216591,"vote_q2_5_pp":4.310967707149973,"vote_q90_pp":8.14503221096556,"vote_q97_5_pp":9.23713311349574,"zero_seat_probability":0.00047190825737893435},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":7.5500847560611195,"contest_party_id":"THE_DEMOCRATS","display_name_en":"The Democrats","display_name_he":"הדמוקרטים","expected_seats":9.765431355526825,"forecast_date":"2026-10-20","group_id":"CHANGE_CORE","headline_seats":10,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":1.0,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.0,"p_represented":1.0,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_democrats","raw_b5_point_pp":7.690148236166573,"seat_q10":8.0,"seat_q90":12.0,"seat_range_display":"8–12","seat_range_high":12,"seat_range_low":8,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":7.493913010756006,"vote_q10_pp":5.883948328271085,"vote_q2_5_pp":5.15622267524425,"vote_q90_pp":9.216785206723568,"vote_q97_5_pp":10.330540074128017,"zero_seat_probability":0.0},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":3.9503053370669323,"contest_party_id":"RAAM","display_name_en":"Raam","display_name_he":"רע״ם","expected_seats":3.9603394865539308,"forecast_date":"2026-10-20","group_id":"ARAB_LISTS","headline_seats":5,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.7095497925730831,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.2904502074269168,"p_represented":0.7095497925730833,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_raam","raw_b5_point_pp":4.023588423398455,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":7.0,"seat_range_display":"4–7","seat_range_high":7,"seat_range_low":4,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":3.9470594912939996,"vote_q10_pp":2.5299348341765215,"vote_q2_5_pp":1.9944147756880808,"vote_q90_pp":5.491716358610713,"vote_q97_5_pp":6.563824312049287,"zero_seat_probability":0.2904502074269168},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":5.64224365367504,"contest_party_id":"HADASH_TAAL_BALAD","display_name_en":"Joint List","display_name_he":"הרשימה המשותפת","expected_seats":7.266583551374954,"forecast_date":"2026-10-20","group_id":"ARAB_LISTS","headline_seats":7,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.9929920750559637,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.007007924944036367,"p_represented":0.9929920750559637,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_joint_list","raw_b5_point_pp":5.746914304041212,"seat_q10":5.0,"seat_q90":9.0,"seat_range_display":"5–10","seat_range_high":10,"seat_range_low":5,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":5.687768742860094,"vote_q10_pp":4.211873322807277,"vote_q2_5_pp":3.6233494994587323,"vote_q90_pp":7.286556347318211,"vote_q97_5_pp":8.293292719489628,"zero_seat_probability":0.007007924944036367},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":1.2207565749966993,"contest_party_id":"BLUE_WHITE","display_name_en":"Blue and White","display_name_he":"כחול לבן","expected_seats":0.04716091961348753,"forecast_date":"2026-10-20","group_id":"UNCOMMITTED","headline_seats":0,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.008867770697057908,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.9911322293029421,"p_represented":0.008867770697057926,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_blue_white","raw_b5_point_pp":1.2434031306023683,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":0.0,"seat_range_display":"0","seat_range_high":null,"seat_range_low":null,"seat_range_mode":"ZERO_ONLY_RARE_REPRESENTATION","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":1.1378577464206066,"vote_q10_pp":0.4121628736066496,"vote_q2_5_pp":0.25916954436761586,"vote_q90_pp":2.1304777786602767,"vote_q97_5_pp":2.8894656171126716,"zero_seat_probability":0.9911322293029421},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":2.562047576916164,"contest_party_id":"K26_NATIVE_LIST::RESERVISTS_AND_NEW_ECONOMIC_PARTY","display_name_en":"Reservists–Economic","display_name_he":"המילואימניקים והכלכלית","expected_seats":0.9662314349373977,"forecast_date":"2026-10-20","group_id":"UNCOMMITTED","headline_seats":0,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.1872913187729739,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.8127086812270261,"p_represented":0.187384619370743,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_reservists_economic","raw_b5_point_pp":2.609576751940397,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":5.0,"seat_range_display":"0, 4–7","seat_range_high":7,"seat_range_low":4,"seat_range_mode":"ZERO_SEPARATED_CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":2.4083543368664015,"vote_q10_pp":1.202829632307551,"vote_q2_5_pp":0.8547764753150412,"vote_q90_pp":3.904668032645211,"vote_q97_5_pp":5.08256001196617,"zero_seat_probability":0.8126153806292571},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":17.325179638512996,"contest_party_id":"LIKUD","display_name_en":"Likud","display_name_he":"הליכוד","expected_seats":23.2713,"forecast_date":"2026-10-21","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":24,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":1.0,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.0,"p_represented":1.0,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_likud","raw_b5_point_pp":17.646583309071026,"seat_q10":20.0,"seat_q90":27.0,"seat_range_display":"20–27","seat_range_high":27,"seat_range_low":20,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":17.32520599986776,"vote_q10_pp":15.17445221144533,"vote_q2_5_pp":14.112195686773726,"vote_q90_pp":19.56971109556311,"vote_q97_5_pp":20.945353106093084,"zero_seat_probability":0.0},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":5.674072203137139,"contest_party_id":"SHAS","display_name_en":"Shas","display_name_he":"ש״ס","expected_seats":7.2326,"forecast_date":"2026-10-21","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":7,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.9865,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.0135,"p_represented":0.9865,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_shas","raw_b5_point_pp":5.779333312756207,"seat_q10":5.0,"seat_q90":10.0,"seat_range_display":"5–10","seat_range_high":10,"seat_range_low":5,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":5.674133019186089,"vote_q10_pp":4.075633688822038,"vote_q2_5_pp":3.4652358113622403,"vote_q90_pp":7.451069857636546,"vote_q97_5_pp":8.688215547262137,"zero_seat_probability":0.0135},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":5.9112369834026435,"contest_party_id":"UNITED_TORAH_JUDAISM","display_name_en":"United Torah Judaism","display_name_he":"יהדות התורה","expected_seats":7.583,"forecast_date":"2026-10-21","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":8,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.99325,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.00675,"p_represented":0.99325,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_utj","raw_b5_point_pp":6.020897795217872,"seat_q10":5.0,"seat_q90":10.0,"seat_range_display":"5–10","seat_range_high":10,"seat_range_low":5,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":5.911181186622071,"vote_q10_pp":4.293762163127094,"vote_q2_5_pp":3.661855242181067,"vote_q90_pp":7.705298505682301,"vote_q97_5_pp":8.957476965328654,"zero_seat_probability":0.00675},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":6.148316043002528,"contest_party_id":"OTZMA_YEHUDIT","display_name_en":"Otzma Yehudit","display_name_he":"עוצמה יהודית","expected_seats":7.918,"forecast_date":"2026-10-21","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":8,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.99525,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.00475,"p_represented":0.99525,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_otzma","raw_b5_point_pp":6.262374966788755,"seat_q10":6.0,"seat_q90":11.0,"seat_range_display":"6–11","seat_range_high":11,"seat_range_low":6,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":6.148376749662834,"vote_q10_pp":4.414284327483316,"vote_q2_5_pp":3.7390685565549284,"vote_q90_pp":8.099554519587375,"vote_q97_5_pp":9.408550785242378,"zero_seat_probability":0.00475},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":4.6553497364986365,"contest_party_id":"K26_NATIVE_LIST::RZP_AND_ZEHUT","display_name_en":"Religious Zionism–Zehut","display_name_he":"הציונות הדתית וזהות","expected_seats":5.40545,"forecast_date":"2026-10-21","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":6,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.86575,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.13425,"p_represented":0.86575,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_religious_zionism_zehut","raw_b5_point_pp":4.741712274969288,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":8.0,"seat_range_display":"4–9","seat_range_high":9,"seat_range_low":4,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":4.655485009058518,"vote_q10_pp":3.089205396919815,"vote_q2_5_pp":2.5417186283105555,"vote_q90_pp":6.438732242118994,"vote_q97_5_pp":7.76998606263391,"zero_seat_probability":0.13425},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":3.1153946705796183,"contest_party_id":"WINTER_NEW_PARTY","display_name_en":"Amcha Yisrael","display_name_he":"עמך ישראל","expected_seats":2.08215,"forecast_date":"2026-10-21","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":0,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.38144999999999996,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.61855,"p_represented":0.38145,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_amcha_yisrael","raw_b5_point_pp":3.1731891236965937,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":6.0,"seat_range_display":"0, 4–7","seat_range_high":7,"seat_range_low":4,"seat_range_mode":"ZERO_SEPARATED_CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":3.115258889431257,"vote_q10_pp":1.7217863916835585,"vote_q2_5_pp":1.2986758099503362,"vote_q90_pp":4.804590312005073,"vote_q97_5_pp":6.2568251022725345,"zero_seat_probability":0.61855},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":0.5926263449995827,"contest_party_id":"K26_NATIVE_LIST::HAREDI_PUBLIC","display_name_en":"Haredi Public","display_name_he":"הציבור החרדי","expected_seats":0.046,"forecast_date":"2026-10-21","group_id":"UNCOMMITTED","headline_seats":0,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.008299999999999974,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.9917,"p_represented":0.0083,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_haredi_public","raw_b5_point_pp":0.6036203021490281,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":0.0,"seat_range_display":"0","seat_range_high":null,"seat_range_low":null,"seat_range_mode":"ZERO_ONLY_RARE_REPRESENTATION","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":0.5926745685548809,"vote_q10_pp":0.13414566384598162,"vote_q2_5_pp":0.07451372853735257,"vote_q90_pp":1.227598455217381,"vote_q97_5_pp":2.209167120578413,"zero_seat_probability":0.9917},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":9.496255939717082,"contest_party_id":"K26_NATIVE_LIST::BEYAHAD_BENNETT","display_name_en":"Beyachad","display_name_he":"ביחד","expected_seats":12.53135,"forecast_date":"2026-10-21","group_id":"CHANGE_CORE","headline_seats":13,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":1.0,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.0,"p_represented":1.0,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_beyachad","raw_b5_point_pp":9.672423320331067,"seat_q10":10.0,"seat_q90":16.0,"seat_range_display":"10–16","seat_range_high":16,"seat_range_low":10,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":9.49627475160728,"vote_q10_pp":7.5303570718173765,"vote_q2_5_pp":6.7087776183708545,"vote_q90_pp":11.62195706830411,"vote_q97_5_pp":12.992530013925379,"zero_seat_probability":0.0},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":17.11954298996529,"contest_party_id":"YASHAR_GADI_EISENKOT","display_name_en":"Yashar!","display_name_he":"ישר!","expected_seats":22.98945,"forecast_date":"2026-10-21","group_id":"CHANGE_CORE","headline_seats":23,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":1.0,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.0,"p_represented":1.0,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_yashar","raw_b5_point_pp":17.437131844456562,"seat_q10":20.0,"seat_q90":26.0,"seat_range_display":"20–26","seat_range_high":26,"seat_range_low":20,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":17.11953791019556,"vote_q10_pp":14.902595927966725,"vote_q2_5_pp":13.83107592283721,"vote_q90_pp":19.437253818421713,"vote_q97_5_pp":20.803683919423616,"zero_seat_probability":0.0},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":6.636587551468527,"contest_party_id":"YISRAEL_BEITEINU","display_name_en":"Yisrael Beiteinu","display_name_he":"ישראל ביתנו","expected_seats":8.6031,"forecast_date":"2026-10-21","group_id":"CHANGE_CORE","headline_seats":9,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.99895,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.00105,"p_represented":0.99895,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_yisrael_beiteinu","raw_b5_point_pp":6.759704520153811,"seat_q10":6.0,"seat_q90":11.0,"seat_range_display":"6–11","seat_range_high":11,"seat_range_low":6,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":6.636595640275319,"vote_q10_pp":4.842279275964388,"vote_q2_5_pp":4.178542847261501,"vote_q90_pp":8.606176895159898,"vote_q97_5_pp":9.92114629068217,"zero_seat_probability":0.00105},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":7.5500847560611195,"contest_party_id":"THE_DEMOCRATS","display_name_en":"The Democrats","display_name_he":"הדמוקרטים","expected_seats":9.85705,"forecast_date":"2026-10-21","group_id":"CHANGE_CORE","headline_seats":10,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.99985,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.00015,"p_represented":0.99985,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_democrats","raw_b5_point_pp":7.690148236166573,"seat_q10":7.0,"seat_q90":13.0,"seat_range_display":"7–13","seat_range_high":13,"seat_range_low":7,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":7.550053081389614,"vote_q10_pp":5.691942027838356,"vote_q2_5_pp":4.917450508252704,"vote_q90_pp":9.583127583436005,"vote_q97_5_pp":10.986062641957474,"zero_seat_probability":0.00015},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":3.9503053370669323,"contest_party_id":"RAAM","display_name_en":"Raam","display_name_he":"רע״ם","expected_seats":3.82665,"forecast_date":"2026-10-21","group_id":"ARAB_LISTS","headline_seats":5,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.6629,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.3371,"p_represented":0.6629,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_raam","raw_b5_point_pp":4.023588423398455,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":7.0,"seat_range_display":"0, 4–8","seat_range_high":8,"seat_range_low":4,"seat_range_mode":"ZERO_SEPARATED_CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":3.950214386881789,"vote_q10_pp":2.437934377236523,"vote_q2_5_pp":1.945155498196621,"vote_q90_pp":5.713769849189056,"vote_q97_5_pp":7.143414577574156,"zero_seat_probability":0.3371},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":5.64224365367504,"contest_party_id":"HADASH_TAAL_BALAD","display_name_en":"Joint List","display_name_he":"הרשימה המשותפת","expected_seats":7.17895,"forecast_date":"2026-10-21","group_id":"ARAB_LISTS","headline_seats":7,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.984,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.016,"p_represented":0.984,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_joint_list","raw_b5_point_pp":5.746914304041212,"seat_q10":5.0,"seat_q90":10.0,"seat_range_display":"5–10","seat_range_high":10,"seat_range_low":5,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":5.642260117432203,"vote_q10_pp":4.024495035280216,"vote_q2_5_pp":3.4048114523447244,"vote_q90_pp":7.449425995488632,"vote_q97_5_pp":8.77958002309181,"zero_seat_probability":0.016},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":1.2207565749966993,"contest_party_id":"BLUE_WHITE","display_name_en":"Blue and White","display_name_he":"כחול לבן","expected_seats":0.19815,"forecast_date":"2026-10-21","group_id":"UNCOMMITTED","headline_seats":0,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.03674999999999995,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.96325,"p_represented":0.03675,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_blue_white","raw_b5_point_pp":1.2434031306023683,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":0.0,"seat_range_display":"0","seat_range_high":null,"seat_range_low":null,"seat_range_mode":"ZERO_ONLY_RARE_REPRESENTATION","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":1.2207218874491148,"vote_q10_pp":0.4147255456509362,"vote_q2_5_pp":0.261982020298119,"vote_q90_pp":2.3175735409447014,"vote_q97_5_pp":3.6162491070077465,"zero_seat_probability":0.96325},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":2.562047576916164,"contest_party_id":"K26_NATIVE_LIST::RESERVISTS_AND_NEW_ECONOMIC_PARTY","display_name_en":"Reservists–Economic","display_name_he":"המילואימניקים והכלכלית","expected_seats":1.2768,"forecast_date":"2026-10-21","group_id":"UNCOMMITTED","headline_seats":0,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.23170000000000002,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.7683,"p_represented":0.2317,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_reservists_economic","raw_b5_point_pp":2.609576751940397,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":5.0,"seat_range_display":"0, 4–8","seat_range_high":8,"seat_range_low":4,"seat_range_mode":"ZERO_SEPARATED_CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":2.562026802385712,"vote_q10_pp":1.2055605096918824,"vote_q2_5_pp":0.8603345715845652,"vote_q90_pp":4.273802427389544,"vote_q97_5_pp":5.862015297674066,"zero_seat_probability":0.7683},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":17.325179638512996,"contest_party_id":"LIKUD","display_name_en":"Likud","display_name_he":"הליכוד","expected_seats":23.537916516413844,"forecast_date":"2026-10-21","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":24,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":1.0,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.0,"p_represented":1.0,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_likud","raw_b5_point_pp":17.646583309071026,"seat_q10":21.0,"seat_q90":27.0,"seat_range_display":"21–27","seat_range_high":27,"seat_range_low":21,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":17.551818505665544,"vote_q10_pp":15.430673238180221,"vote_q2_5_pp":14.430913595113621,"vote_q90_pp":19.75468013837176,"vote_q97_5_pp":21.0998543302329,"zero_seat_probability":0.0},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":5.674072203137139,"contest_party_id":"SHAS","display_name_en":"Shas","display_name_he":"ש״ס","expected_seats":7.520776496385254,"forecast_date":"2026-10-21","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":8,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.9952297752718864,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.004770224728113629,"p_represented":0.9952297752718866,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_shas","raw_b5_point_pp":5.779333312756207,"seat_q10":5.0,"seat_q90":10.0,"seat_range_display":"5–10","seat_range_high":10,"seat_range_low":5,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":5.865068714726508,"vote_q10_pp":4.345900764047554,"vote_q2_5_pp":3.7510379322813927,"vote_q90_pp":7.5184335701844045,"vote_q97_5_pp":8.592250762717622,"zero_seat_probability":0.004770224728113629},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":5.9112369834026435,"contest_party_id":"UNITED_TORAH_JUDAISM","display_name_en":"United Torah Judaism","display_name_he":"יהדות התורה","expected_seats":7.580197278078315,"forecast_date":"2026-10-21","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":8,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.9975762876744847,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.002423712325515284,"p_represented":0.9975762876744847,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_utj","raw_b5_point_pp":6.020897795217872,"seat_q10":6.0,"seat_q90":10.0,"seat_range_display":"6–10","seat_range_high":10,"seat_range_low":6,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":5.90866114868078,"vote_q10_pp":4.473487852999367,"vote_q2_5_pp":3.852809500180395,"vote_q90_pp":7.460099166003952,"vote_q97_5_pp":8.424428446270431,"zero_seat_probability":0.002423712325515284},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":6.148316043002528,"contest_party_id":"OTZMA_YEHUDIT","display_name_en":"Otzma Yehudit","display_name_he":"עוצמה יהודית","expected_seats":7.886276980732255,"forecast_date":"2026-10-21","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":8,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.998350693315403,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.0016493066845969405,"p_represented":0.9983506933154032,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_otzma","raw_b5_point_pp":6.262374966788755,"seat_q10":6.0,"seat_q90":10.0,"seat_range_display":"6–10","seat_range_high":10,"seat_range_low":6,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":6.127267620213915,"vote_q10_pp":4.598887751067515,"vote_q2_5_pp":3.9636299036818,"vote_q90_pp":7.772271219456717,"vote_q97_5_pp":8.772130171243399,"zero_seat_probability":0.0016493066845969405},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":4.6553497364986365,"contest_party_id":"K26_NATIVE_LIST::RZP_AND_ZEHUT","display_name_en":"Religious Zionism–Zehut","display_name_he":"הציונות הדתית וזהות","expected_seats":5.717532397996106,"forecast_date":"2026-10-21","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":6,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.9184491709903035,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.08155082900969648,"p_represented":0.9184491709903037,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_religious_zionism_zehut","raw_b5_point_pp":4.741712274969288,"seat_q10":4.0,"seat_q90":8.0,"seat_range_display":"5–8","seat_range_high":8,"seat_range_low":5,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":4.751886261295372,"vote_q10_pp":3.350903267957186,"vote_q2_5_pp":2.7189066943831697,"vote_q90_pp":6.31927818191501,"vote_q97_5_pp":7.383413930380877,"zero_seat_probability":0.08155082900969648},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":3.1153946705796183,"contest_party_id":"WINTER_NEW_PARTY","display_name_en":"Amcha Yisrael","display_name_he":"עמך ישראל","expected_seats":1.8333959943481521,"forecast_date":"2026-10-21","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":0,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.3517299211812749,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.6482700788187251,"p_represented":0.351729921181275,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_amcha_yisrael","raw_b5_point_pp":3.1731891236965937,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":6.0,"seat_range_display":"0, 4–7","seat_range_high":7,"seat_range_low":4,"seat_range_mode":"ZERO_SEPARATED_CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":2.996032026852931,"vote_q10_pp":1.7171103290395873,"vote_q2_5_pp":1.3013745077398924,"vote_q90_pp":4.533202957395619,"vote_q97_5_pp":5.646808051878005,"zero_seat_probability":0.6482700788187251},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":0.5926263449995827,"contest_party_id":"K26_NATIVE_LIST::HAREDI_PUBLIC","display_name_en":"Haredi Public","display_name_he":"הציבור החרדי","expected_seats":0.011566859999789864,"forecast_date":"2026-10-21","group_id":"UNCOMMITTED","headline_seats":0,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.0020846438764940967,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.9979153561235059,"p_represented":0.0020846438764940125,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_haredi_public","raw_b5_point_pp":0.6036203021490281,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":0.0,"seat_range_display":"0","seat_range_high":null,"seat_range_low":null,"seat_range_mode":"ZERO_ONLY_RARE_REPRESENTATION","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":0.5625509376718978,"vote_q10_pp":0.13108277235486818,"vote_q2_5_pp":0.07244911858543816,"vote_q90_pp":1.171171781236183,"vote_q97_5_pp":2.009830598199552,"zero_seat_probability":0.9979153561235059},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":9.496255939717082,"contest_party_id":"K26_NATIVE_LIST::BEYAHAD_BENNETT","display_name_en":"Beyachad","display_name_he":"ביחד","expected_seats":12.503597197672201,"forecast_date":"2026-10-21","group_id":"CHANGE_CORE","headline_seats":13,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":1.0,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.0,"p_represented":1.0,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_beyachad","raw_b5_point_pp":9.672423320331067,"seat_q10":10.0,"seat_q90":15.0,"seat_range_display":"10–15","seat_range_high":15,"seat_range_low":10,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":9.494178242301626,"vote_q10_pp":7.657789274519696,"vote_q2_5_pp":6.84836683613,"vote_q90_pp":11.468458033859626,"vote_q97_5_pp":12.741940522259767,"zero_seat_probability":0.0},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":17.11954298996529,"contest_party_id":"YASHAR_GADI_EISENKOT","display_name_en":"Yashar!","display_name_he":"ישר!","expected_seats":23.035938333039443,"forecast_date":"2026-10-21","group_id":"CHANGE_CORE","headline_seats":23,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":1.0,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.0,"p_represented":1.0,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_yashar","raw_b5_point_pp":17.437131844456562,"seat_q10":20.0,"seat_q90":26.0,"seat_range_display":"20–26","seat_range_high":26,"seat_range_low":20,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":17.18703138981764,"vote_q10_pp":15.233000897827868,"vote_q2_5_pp":14.289638124840563,"vote_q90_pp":19.216303903872706,"vote_q97_5_pp":20.409940020862486,"zero_seat_probability":0.0},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":6.636587551468527,"contest_party_id":"YISRAEL_BEITEINU","display_name_en":"Yisrael Beiteinu","display_name_he":"ישראל ביתנו","expected_seats":8.37731088911817,"forecast_date":"2026-10-21","group_id":"CHANGE_CORE","headline_seats":8,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.9997536329834679,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.0002463670165321015,"p_represented":0.999753632983468,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_yisrael_beiteinu","raw_b5_point_pp":6.759704520153811,"seat_q10":6.0,"seat_q90":11.0,"seat_range_display":"6–11","seat_range_high":11,"seat_range_low":6,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":6.487320822898665,"vote_q10_pp":4.943417218265127,"vote_q2_5_pp":4.341248743986198,"vote_q90_pp":8.13687136525375,"vote_q97_5_pp":9.249450164642797,"zero_seat_probability":0.0002463670165321015},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":7.5500847560611195,"contest_party_id":"THE_DEMOCRATS","display_name_en":"The Democrats","display_name_he":"הדמוקרטים","expected_seats":9.754583580438384,"forecast_date":"2026-10-21","group_id":"CHANGE_CORE","headline_seats":10,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.9999551240687418,"p_below_legal_threshold":4.4875931258200545e-05,"p_represented":0.9999551240687418,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_democrats","raw_b5_point_pp":7.690148236166573,"seat_q10":8.0,"seat_q90":12.0,"seat_range_display":"8–12","seat_range_high":12,"seat_range_low":8,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":7.492247505701821,"vote_q10_pp":5.8912112112475965,"vote_q2_5_pp":5.168821115343451,"vote_q90_pp":9.18992969753669,"vote_q97_5_pp":10.3068550378281,"zero_seat_probability":4.4875931258200545e-05},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":3.9503053370669323,"contest_party_id":"RAAM","display_name_en":"Raam","display_name_he":"רע״ם","expected_seats":3.978779003962768,"forecast_date":"2026-10-21","group_id":"ARAB_LISTS","headline_seats":5,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.7122215625077586,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.2877784374922414,"p_represented":0.7122215625077586,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_raam","raw_b5_point_pp":4.023588423398455,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":7.0,"seat_range_display":"4–7","seat_range_high":7,"seat_range_low":4,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":3.9569824467706436,"vote_q10_pp":2.523927040429727,"vote_q2_5_pp":2.0058363931536745,"vote_q90_pp":5.526434313796172,"vote_q97_5_pp":6.5463962057482155,"zero_seat_probability":0.2877784374922414},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":5.64224365367504,"contest_party_id":"HADASH_TAAL_BALAD","display_name_en":"Joint List","display_name_he":"הרשימה המשותפת","expected_seats":7.25021902949468,"forecast_date":"2026-10-21","group_id":"ARAB_LISTS","headline_seats":7,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.993542550545334,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.006457449454665946,"p_represented":0.9935425505453341,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_joint_list","raw_b5_point_pp":5.746914304041212,"seat_q10":5.0,"seat_q90":9.0,"seat_range_display":"5–9","seat_range_high":9,"seat_range_low":5,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":5.676286060228571,"vote_q10_pp":4.220039770818809,"vote_q2_5_pp":3.6481332435312943,"vote_q90_pp":7.2672548912654555,"vote_q97_5_pp":8.256331091602151,"zero_seat_probability":0.006457449454665946},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":1.2207565749966993,"contest_party_id":"BLUE_WHITE","display_name_en":"Blue and White","display_name_he":"כחול לבן","expected_seats":0.04917576554467651,"forecast_date":"2026-10-21","group_id":"UNCOMMITTED","headline_seats":0,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.009147090612368958,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.990852909387631,"p_represented":0.009147090612369044,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_blue_white","raw_b5_point_pp":1.2434031306023683,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":0.0,"seat_range_display":"0","seat_range_high":null,"seat_range_low":null,"seat_range_mode":"ZERO_ONLY_RARE_REPRESENTATION","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":1.1314191892784036,"vote_q10_pp":0.4103413805664596,"vote_q2_5_pp":0.25925641903808155,"vote_q90_pp":2.1056044239047136,"vote_q97_5_pp":2.908108075852566,"zero_seat_probability":0.990852909387631},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":2.562047576916164,"contest_party_id":"K26_NATIVE_LIST::RESERVISTS_AND_NEW_ECONOMIC_PARTY","display_name_en":"Reservists–Economic","display_name_he":"המילואימניקים והכלכלית","expected_seats":0.9627336767759701,"forecast_date":"2026-10-21","group_id":"UNCOMMITTED","headline_seats":0,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.1866333790406538,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.8133666209593462,"p_represented":0.18663337904065397,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_reservists_economic","raw_b5_point_pp":2.609576751940397,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":5.0,"seat_range_display":"0, 4–7","seat_range_high":7,"seat_range_low":4,"seat_range_mode":"ZERO_SEPARATED_CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":2.4112491278956867,"vote_q10_pp":1.1941001451646465,"vote_q2_5_pp":0.85715237254696,"vote_q90_pp":3.886100096232482,"vote_q97_5_pp":5.099884184302974,"zero_seat_probability":0.8133666209593462},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":17.325179638512996,"contest_party_id":"LIKUD","display_name_en":"Likud","display_name_he":"הליכוד","expected_seats":23.27015,"forecast_date":"2026-10-22","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":24,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":1.0,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.0,"p_represented":1.0,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_likud","raw_b5_point_pp":17.646583309071026,"seat_q10":20.0,"seat_q90":27.0,"seat_range_display":"20–27","seat_range_high":27,"seat_range_low":20,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":17.325109091540153,"vote_q10_pp":15.143885554856954,"vote_q2_5_pp":14.09968546478258,"vote_q90_pp":19.592309443304494,"vote_q97_5_pp":20.91859695817961,"zero_seat_probability":0.0},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":5.674072203137139,"contest_party_id":"SHAS","display_name_en":"Shas","display_name_he":"ש״ס","expected_seats":7.23165,"forecast_date":"2026-10-22","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":7,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.9864,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.0136,"p_represented":0.9864,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_shas","raw_b5_point_pp":5.779333312756207,"seat_q10":5.0,"seat_q90":10.0,"seat_range_display":"5–10","seat_range_high":10,"seat_range_low":5,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":5.674148543367353,"vote_q10_pp":4.082614748126389,"vote_q2_5_pp":3.456179034218424,"vote_q90_pp":7.438627081470909,"vote_q97_5_pp":8.7239112921037,"zero_seat_probability":0.0136},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":5.9112369834026435,"contest_party_id":"UNITED_TORAH_JUDAISM","display_name_en":"United Torah Judaism","display_name_he":"יהדות התורה","expected_seats":7.58555,"forecast_date":"2026-10-22","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":8,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.9936,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.0064,"p_represented":0.9936,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_utj","raw_b5_point_pp":6.020897795217872,"seat_q10":5.0,"seat_q90":10.0,"seat_range_display":"5–10","seat_range_high":10,"seat_range_low":5,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":5.911245720782777,"vote_q10_pp":4.307444624511852,"vote_q2_5_pp":3.663048237869285,"vote_q90_pp":7.68896871652808,"vote_q97_5_pp":8.905621316451636,"zero_seat_probability":0.0064},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":6.148316043002528,"contest_party_id":"OTZMA_YEHUDIT","display_name_en":"Otzma Yehudit","display_name_he":"עוצמה יהודית","expected_seats":7.91065,"forecast_date":"2026-10-22","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":8,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.99465,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.00535,"p_represented":0.99465,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_otzma","raw_b5_point_pp":6.262374966788755,"seat_q10":6.0,"seat_q90":11.0,"seat_range_display":"6–11","seat_range_high":11,"seat_range_low":6,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":6.1483664783928615,"vote_q10_pp":4.42048935754818,"vote_q2_5_pp":3.7548697179251076,"vote_q90_pp":8.072999665724208,"vote_q97_5_pp":9.43790037314389,"zero_seat_probability":0.00535},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":4.6553497364986365,"contest_party_id":"K26_NATIVE_LIST::RZP_AND_ZEHUT","display_name_en":"Religious Zionism–Zehut","display_name_he":"הציונות הדתית וזהות","expected_seats":5.4047,"forecast_date":"2026-10-22","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":6,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.86545,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.13455,"p_represented":0.86545,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_religious_zionism_zehut","raw_b5_point_pp":4.741712274969288,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":8.0,"seat_range_display":"4–8","seat_range_high":8,"seat_range_low":4,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":4.655329950288954,"vote_q10_pp":3.087622754409142,"vote_q2_5_pp":2.5519736457524154,"vote_q90_pp":6.417588802560106,"vote_q97_5_pp":7.775664892797924,"zero_seat_probability":0.13455},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":3.1153946705796183,"contest_party_id":"WINTER_NEW_PARTY","display_name_en":"Amcha Yisrael","display_name_he":"עמך ישראל","expected_seats":2.07385,"forecast_date":"2026-10-22","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":0,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.38175000000000003,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.61825,"p_represented":0.38175,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_amcha_yisrael","raw_b5_point_pp":3.1731891236965937,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":6.0,"seat_range_display":"0, 4–7","seat_range_high":7,"seat_range_low":4,"seat_range_mode":"ZERO_SEPARATED_CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":3.11537894418438,"vote_q10_pp":1.729546557828015,"vote_q2_5_pp":1.3259596448800817,"vote_q90_pp":4.787548314530097,"vote_q97_5_pp":6.167891837141116,"zero_seat_probability":0.61825},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":0.5926263449995827,"contest_party_id":"K26_NATIVE_LIST::HAREDI_PUBLIC","display_name_en":"Haredi Public","display_name_he":"הציבור החרדי","expected_seats":0.0448,"forecast_date":"2026-10-22","group_id":"UNCOMMITTED","headline_seats":0,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.007900000000000018,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.9921,"p_represented":0.0079,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_haredi_public","raw_b5_point_pp":0.6036203021490281,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":0.0,"seat_range_display":"0","seat_range_high":null,"seat_range_low":null,"seat_range_mode":"ZERO_ONLY_RARE_REPRESENTATION","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":0.5927006499702564,"vote_q10_pp":0.1369498625449484,"vote_q2_5_pp":0.07582863910408046,"vote_q90_pp":1.2312701398685821,"vote_q97_5_pp":2.197752729228116,"zero_seat_probability":0.9921},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":9.496255939717082,"contest_party_id":"K26_NATIVE_LIST::BEYAHAD_BENNETT","display_name_en":"Beyachad","display_name_he":"ביחד","expected_seats":12.5283,"forecast_date":"2026-10-22","group_id":"CHANGE_CORE","headline_seats":13,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":1.0,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.0,"p_represented":1.0,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_beyachad","raw_b5_point_pp":9.672423320331067,"seat_q10":10.0,"seat_q90":16.0,"seat_range_display":"10–16","seat_range_high":16,"seat_range_low":10,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":9.4961843042952,"vote_q10_pp":7.520225599349381,"vote_q2_5_pp":6.7143240850935175,"vote_q90_pp":11.626487295136986,"vote_q97_5_pp":13.005765183253548,"zero_seat_probability":0.0},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":17.11954298996529,"contest_party_id":"YASHAR_GADI_EISENKOT","display_name_en":"Yashar!","display_name_he":"ישר!","expected_seats":22.987,"forecast_date":"2026-10-22","group_id":"CHANGE_CORE","headline_seats":23,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":1.0,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.0,"p_represented":1.0,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_yashar","raw_b5_point_pp":17.437131844456562,"seat_q10":20.0,"seat_q90":26.0,"seat_range_display":"20–26","seat_range_high":26,"seat_range_low":20,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":17.11945482389281,"vote_q10_pp":14.901408691604846,"vote_q2_5_pp":13.863929242252121,"vote_q90_pp":19.418053261054997,"vote_q97_5_pp":20.759002439743647,"zero_seat_probability":0.0},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":6.636587551468527,"contest_party_id":"YISRAEL_BEITEINU","display_name_en":"Yisrael Beiteinu","display_name_he":"ישראל ביתנו","expected_seats":8.6029,"forecast_date":"2026-10-22","group_id":"CHANGE_CORE","headline_seats":9,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.99905,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.00095,"p_represented":0.99905,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_yisrael_beiteinu","raw_b5_point_pp":6.759704520153811,"seat_q10":6.0,"seat_q90":11.0,"seat_range_display":"6–11","seat_range_high":11,"seat_range_low":6,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":6.636503712981174,"vote_q10_pp":4.864020080864751,"vote_q2_5_pp":4.170037029177411,"vote_q90_pp":8.595263708110263,"vote_q97_5_pp":9.934731163392739,"zero_seat_probability":0.00095},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":7.5500847560611195,"contest_party_id":"THE_DEMOCRATS","display_name_en":"The Democrats","display_name_he":"הדמוקרטים","expected_seats":9.85905,"forecast_date":"2026-10-22","group_id":"CHANGE_CORE","headline_seats":10,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":1.0,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.0,"p_represented":1.0,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_democrats","raw_b5_point_pp":7.690148236166573,"seat_q10":7.0,"seat_q90":13.0,"seat_range_display":"7–13","seat_range_high":13,"seat_range_low":7,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":7.550067895081886,"vote_q10_pp":5.682642469015986,"vote_q2_5_pp":4.95262610746192,"vote_q90_pp":9.61200775082961,"vote_q97_5_pp":10.938145232632694,"zero_seat_probability":0.0},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":3.9503053370669323,"contest_party_id":"RAAM","display_name_en":"Raam","display_name_he":"רע״ם","expected_seats":3.843,"forecast_date":"2026-10-22","group_id":"ARAB_LISTS","headline_seats":5,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.6697500000000001,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.33025,"p_represented":0.66975,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_raam","raw_b5_point_pp":4.023588423398455,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":7.0,"seat_range_display":"0, 4–8","seat_range_high":8,"seat_range_low":4,"seat_range_mode":"ZERO_SEPARATED_CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":3.9502140578782186,"vote_q10_pp":2.4540552977986136,"vote_q2_5_pp":1.980470707605308,"vote_q90_pp":5.6569647691798295,"vote_q97_5_pp":7.0304991158456405,"zero_seat_probability":0.33025},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":5.64224365367504,"contest_party_id":"HADASH_TAAL_BALAD","display_name_en":"Joint List","display_name_he":"הרשימה המשותפת","expected_seats":7.1799,"forecast_date":"2026-10-22","group_id":"ARAB_LISTS","headline_seats":7,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.9836,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.0164,"p_represented":0.9836,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_joint_list","raw_b5_point_pp":5.746914304041212,"seat_q10":5.0,"seat_q90":10.0,"seat_range_display":"5–10","seat_range_high":10,"seat_range_low":5,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":5.642223536378875,"vote_q10_pp":4.032096382903919,"vote_q2_5_pp":3.4027942820864485,"vote_q90_pp":7.457771066236151,"vote_q97_5_pp":8.747352008633158,"zero_seat_probability":0.0164},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":1.2207565749966993,"contest_party_id":"BLUE_WHITE","display_name_en":"Blue and White","display_name_he":"כחול לבן","expected_seats":0.1889,"forecast_date":"2026-10-22","group_id":"UNCOMMITTED","headline_seats":0,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.035150000000000015,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.96485,"p_represented":0.03515,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_blue_white","raw_b5_point_pp":1.2434031306023683,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":0.0,"seat_range_display":"0","seat_range_high":null,"seat_range_low":null,"seat_range_mode":"ZERO_ONLY_RARE_REPRESENTATION","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":1.2208197187247258,"vote_q10_pp":0.4134372422535212,"vote_q2_5_pp":0.26788858678269395,"vote_q90_pp":2.324443962298731,"vote_q97_5_pp":3.566668722510138,"zero_seat_probability":0.96485},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":2.562047576916164,"contest_party_id":"K26_NATIVE_LIST::RESERVISTS_AND_NEW_ECONOMIC_PARTY","display_name_en":"Reservists–Economic","display_name_he":"המילואימניקים והכלכלית","expected_seats":1.2896,"forecast_date":"2026-10-22","group_id":"UNCOMMITTED","headline_seats":0,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.23624999999999996,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.76375,"p_represented":0.23625,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_reservists_economic","raw_b5_point_pp":2.609576751940397,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":5.0,"seat_range_display":"0, 4–7","seat_range_high":7,"seat_range_low":4,"seat_range_mode":"ZERO_SEPARATED_CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":2.5622525722403697,"vote_q10_pp":1.2158244827239828,"vote_q2_5_pp":0.8780811248036677,"vote_q90_pp":4.258688549345467,"vote_q97_5_pp":5.829059326799774,"zero_seat_probability":0.76375},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":17.325179638512996,"contest_party_id":"LIKUD","display_name_en":"Likud","display_name_he":"הליכוד","expected_seats":23.532990244893533,"forecast_date":"2026-10-22","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":24,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":1.0,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.0,"p_represented":0.9999999999999999,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_likud","raw_b5_point_pp":17.646583309071026,"seat_q10":20.0,"seat_q90":27.0,"seat_range_display":"20–27","seat_range_high":27,"seat_range_low":20,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":17.547098276058023,"vote_q10_pp":15.407237038591743,"vote_q2_5_pp":14.355944026867128,"vote_q90_pp":19.79392915784346,"vote_q97_5_pp":21.06678802128512,"zero_seat_probability":0.0},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":5.674072203137139,"contest_party_id":"SHAS","display_name_en":"Shas","display_name_he":"ש״ס","expected_seats":7.532721239458585,"forecast_date":"2026-10-22","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":8,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.9954742932897241,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.00452570671027582,"p_represented":0.9954742932897241,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_shas","raw_b5_point_pp":5.779333312756207,"seat_q10":5.0,"seat_q90":10.0,"seat_range_display":"5–10","seat_range_high":10,"seat_range_low":5,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":5.875531355870825,"vote_q10_pp":4.360605801082599,"vote_q2_5_pp":3.7466728329431724,"vote_q90_pp":7.49469392153476,"vote_q97_5_pp":8.624906101035275,"zero_seat_probability":0.00452570671027582},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":5.9112369834026435,"contest_party_id":"UNITED_TORAH_JUDAISM","display_name_en":"United Torah Judaism","display_name_he":"יהדות התורה","expected_seats":7.573956343104225,"forecast_date":"2026-10-22","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":8,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.997729862653243,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.0022701373467569415,"p_represented":0.9977298626532429,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_utj","raw_b5_point_pp":6.020897795217872,"seat_q10":6.0,"seat_q90":10.0,"seat_range_display":"6–10","seat_range_high":10,"seat_range_low":6,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":5.901828082403377,"vote_q10_pp":4.468956932194285,"vote_q2_5_pp":3.87842311622549,"vote_q90_pp":7.467596541827782,"vote_q97_5_pp":8.441067199231002,"zero_seat_probability":0.0022701373467569415},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":6.148316043002528,"contest_party_id":"OTZMA_YEHUDIT","display_name_en":"Otzma Yehudit","display_name_he":"עוצמה יהודית","expected_seats":7.87963133140881,"forecast_date":"2026-10-22","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":8,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.9981915023298357,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.0018084976701643765,"p_represented":0.9981915023298356,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_otzma","raw_b5_point_pp":6.262374966788755,"seat_q10":6.0,"seat_q90":10.0,"seat_range_display":"6–10","seat_range_high":10,"seat_range_low":6,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":6.127396236048956,"vote_q10_pp":4.6130244707062635,"vote_q2_5_pp":3.9791978098950476,"vote_q90_pp":7.74939456192958,"vote_q97_5_pp":8.83895239264319,"zero_seat_probability":0.0018084976701643765},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":4.6553497364986365,"contest_party_id":"K26_NATIVE_LIST::RZP_AND_ZEHUT","display_name_en":"Religious Zionism–Zehut","display_name_he":"הציונות הדתית וזהות","expected_seats":5.703335821558139,"forecast_date":"2026-10-22","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":6,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.9177269211607915,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.08227307883920854,"p_represented":0.9177269211607915,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_religious_zionism_zehut","raw_b5_point_pp":4.741712274969288,"seat_q10":4.0,"seat_q90":8.0,"seat_range_display":"5–8","seat_range_high":8,"seat_range_low":5,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":4.746549338827821,"vote_q10_pp":3.336427255656455,"vote_q2_5_pp":2.7245561117071886,"vote_q90_pp":6.287920898718738,"vote_q97_5_pp":7.3082433337234125,"zero_seat_probability":0.08227307883920854},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":3.1153946705796183,"contest_party_id":"WINTER_NEW_PARTY","display_name_en":"Amcha Yisrael","display_name_he":"עמך ישראל","expected_seats":1.8311989173425123,"forecast_date":"2026-10-22","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":0,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.35234780169991586,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.6476521983000841,"p_represented":0.3523478016999158,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_amcha_yisrael","raw_b5_point_pp":3.1731891236965937,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":6.0,"seat_range_display":"0, 4–7","seat_range_high":7,"seat_range_low":4,"seat_range_mode":"ZERO_SEPARATED_CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":3.0022123596980412,"vote_q10_pp":1.7178055306039737,"vote_q2_5_pp":1.3149383491738107,"vote_q90_pp":4.531056780515735,"vote_q97_5_pp":5.591066476894917,"zero_seat_probability":0.6476521983000841},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":0.5926263449995827,"contest_party_id":"K26_NATIVE_LIST::HAREDI_PUBLIC","display_name_en":"Haredi Public","display_name_he":"הציבור החרדי","expected_seats":0.010379725949229616,"forecast_date":"2026-10-22","group_id":"UNCOMMITTED","headline_seats":0,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.001845539453520617,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.9981544605464794,"p_represented":0.0018455394535206052,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_haredi_public","raw_b5_point_pp":0.6036203021490281,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":0.0,"seat_range_display":"0","seat_range_high":null,"seat_range_low":null,"seat_range_mode":"ZERO_ONLY_RARE_REPRESENTATION","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":0.5669204507293316,"vote_q10_pp":0.1360126712786442,"vote_q2_5_pp":0.0763502302170942,"vote_q90_pp":1.2005814133370518,"vote_q97_5_pp":2.0331099053042188,"zero_seat_probability":0.9981544605464794},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":9.496255939717082,"contest_party_id":"K26_NATIVE_LIST::BEYAHAD_BENNETT","display_name_en":"Beyachad","display_name_he":"ביחד","expected_seats":12.487398487517208,"forecast_date":"2026-10-22","group_id":"CHANGE_CORE","headline_seats":13,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":1.0,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.0,"p_represented":0.9999999999999999,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_beyachad","raw_b5_point_pp":9.672423320331067,"seat_q10":10.0,"seat_q90":15.0,"seat_range_display":"10–15","seat_range_high":15,"seat_range_low":10,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":9.48596490824961,"vote_q10_pp":7.608755235949782,"vote_q2_5_pp":6.827848329613024,"vote_q90_pp":11.469100269450163,"vote_q97_5_pp":12.745158070721653,"zero_seat_probability":0.0},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":17.11954298996529,"contest_party_id":"YASHAR_GADI_EISENKOT","display_name_en":"Yashar!","display_name_he":"ישר!","expected_seats":23.049349900883318,"forecast_date":"2026-10-22","group_id":"CHANGE_CORE","headline_seats":23,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":1.0,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.0,"p_represented":0.9999999999999999,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_yashar","raw_b5_point_pp":17.437131844456562,"seat_q10":20.0,"seat_q90":26.0,"seat_range_display":"20–26","seat_range_high":26,"seat_range_low":20,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":17.199070315604096,"vote_q10_pp":15.247696908859545,"vote_q2_5_pp":14.317227940573952,"vote_q90_pp":19.20239849808406,"vote_q97_5_pp":20.38874281660041,"zero_seat_probability":0.0},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":6.636587551468527,"contest_party_id":"YISRAEL_BEITEINU","display_name_en":"Yisrael Beiteinu","display_name_he":"ישראל ביתנו","expected_seats":8.379615318182768,"forecast_date":"2026-10-22","group_id":"CHANGE_CORE","headline_seats":8,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.999657268873679,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.0003427311263210428,"p_represented":0.999657268873679,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_yisrael_beiteinu","raw_b5_point_pp":6.759704520153811,"seat_q10":6.0,"seat_q90":11.0,"seat_range_display":"6–11","seat_range_high":11,"seat_range_low":6,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":6.486420172916475,"vote_q10_pp":4.940230297092057,"vote_q2_5_pp":4.320698782336221,"vote_q90_pp":8.104392585877951,"vote_q97_5_pp":9.205591266954759,"zero_seat_probability":0.0003427311263210428},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":7.5500847560611195,"contest_party_id":"THE_DEMOCRATS","display_name_en":"The Democrats","display_name_he":"הדמוקרטים","expected_seats":9.73529558166025,"forecast_date":"2026-10-22","group_id":"CHANGE_CORE","headline_seats":10,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":1.0,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.0,"p_represented":0.9999999999999999,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_democrats","raw_b5_point_pp":7.690148236166573,"seat_q10":8.0,"seat_q90":12.0,"seat_range_display":"8–12","seat_range_high":12,"seat_range_low":8,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":7.4772798370931675,"vote_q10_pp":5.879359046332708,"vote_q2_5_pp":5.1781352600288795,"vote_q90_pp":9.203099739567383,"vote_q97_5_pp":10.305587696310395,"zero_seat_probability":0.0},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":3.9503053370669323,"contest_party_id":"RAAM","display_name_en":"Raam","display_name_he":"רע״ם","expected_seats":3.999122776607306,"forecast_date":"2026-10-22","group_id":"ARAB_LISTS","headline_seats":5,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.7178884629276965,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.2821115370723035,"p_represented":0.7178884629276965,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_raam","raw_b5_point_pp":4.023588423398455,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":7.0,"seat_range_display":"4–7","seat_range_high":7,"seat_range_low":4,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":3.958840565538001,"vote_q10_pp":2.530973007075008,"vote_q2_5_pp":2.0410247007053983,"vote_q90_pp":5.460981580991238,"vote_q97_5_pp":6.541247610260261,"zero_seat_probability":0.2821115370723035},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":5.64224365367504,"contest_party_id":"HADASH_TAAL_BALAD","display_name_en":"Joint List","display_name_he":"הרשימה המשותפת","expected_seats":7.256741025528352,"forecast_date":"2026-10-22","group_id":"ARAB_LISTS","headline_seats":7,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.9937703765702707,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.006229623429729315,"p_represented":0.9937703765702706,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_joint_list","raw_b5_point_pp":5.746914304041212,"seat_q10":5.0,"seat_q90":9.0,"seat_range_display":"5–9","seat_range_high":9,"seat_range_low":5,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":5.677345130637681,"vote_q10_pp":4.241844094741044,"vote_q2_5_pp":3.6578801957656784,"vote_q90_pp":7.230259268085323,"vote_q97_5_pp":8.26352549022833,"zero_seat_probability":0.006229623429729315},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":1.2207565749966993,"contest_party_id":"BLUE_WHITE","display_name_en":"Blue and White","display_name_he":"כחול לבן","expected_seats":0.047140247641539595,"forecast_date":"2026-10-22","group_id":"UNCOMMITTED","headline_seats":0,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.008743723524057723,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.9912562764759423,"p_represented":0.008743723524057757,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_blue_white","raw_b5_point_pp":1.2434031306023683,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":0.0,"seat_range_display":"0","seat_range_high":null,"seat_range_low":null,"seat_range_mode":"ZERO_ONLY_RARE_REPRESENTATION","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":1.1390008404598415,"vote_q10_pp":0.41317218462876076,"vote_q2_5_pp":0.26760755017215554,"vote_q90_pp":2.1316575888217706,"vote_q97_5_pp":2.916587764605903,"zero_seat_probability":0.9912562764759423},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":2.562047576916164,"contest_party_id":"K26_NATIVE_LIST::RESERVISTS_AND_NEW_ECONOMIC_PARTY","display_name_en":"Reservists–Economic","display_name_he":"המילואימניקים והכלכלית","expected_seats":0.9811230382642211,"forecast_date":"2026-10-22","group_id":"UNCOMMITTED","headline_seats":0,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.19162416906242974,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.8083758309375703,"p_represented":0.19162416906242968,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_reservists_economic","raw_b5_point_pp":2.609576751940397,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":5.0,"seat_range_display":"0, 4–7","seat_range_high":7,"seat_range_low":4,"seat_range_mode":"ZERO_SEPARATED_CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":2.4085421298647547,"vote_q10_pp":1.1962465142943417,"vote_q2_5_pp":0.8638533283883464,"vote_q90_pp":3.877257667190978,"vote_q97_5_pp":5.089189938857371,"zero_seat_probability":0.8083758309375703},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":17.325179638512996,"contest_party_id":"LIKUD","display_name_en":"Likud","display_name_he":"הליכוד","expected_seats":23.2654,"forecast_date":"2026-10-23","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":24,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":1.0,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.0,"p_represented":1.0,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_likud","raw_b5_point_pp":17.646583309071026,"seat_q10":20.0,"seat_q90":26.0,"seat_range_display":"20–26","seat_range_high":26,"seat_range_low":20,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":17.325105296329436,"vote_q10_pp":15.154017139207236,"vote_q2_5_pp":14.087627107255557,"vote_q90_pp":19.564427902870992,"vote_q97_5_pp":20.88293434720849,"zero_seat_probability":0.0},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":5.674072203137139,"contest_party_id":"SHAS","display_name_en":"Shas","display_name_he":"ש״ס","expected_seats":7.2289,"forecast_date":"2026-10-23","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":7,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.9862,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.0138,"p_represented":0.9862,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_shas","raw_b5_point_pp":5.779333312756207,"seat_q10":5.0,"seat_q90":10.0,"seat_range_display":"5–10","seat_range_high":10,"seat_range_low":5,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":5.673987386775265,"vote_q10_pp":4.048100191888908,"vote_q2_5_pp":3.4479943048566044,"vote_q90_pp":7.467885022046982,"vote_q97_5_pp":8.755581723989835,"zero_seat_probability":0.0138},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":5.9112369834026435,"contest_party_id":"UNITED_TORAH_JUDAISM","display_name_en":"United Torah Judaism","display_name_he":"יהדות התורה","expected_seats":7.58795,"forecast_date":"2026-10-23","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":8,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.994,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.006,"p_represented":0.994,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_utj","raw_b5_point_pp":6.020897795217872,"seat_q10":5.0,"seat_q90":10.0,"seat_range_display":"5–10","seat_range_high":10,"seat_range_low":5,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":5.911319355868529,"vote_q10_pp":4.307356126264492,"vote_q2_5_pp":3.6829662340301343,"vote_q90_pp":7.713944956986177,"vote_q97_5_pp":8.983130298462367,"zero_seat_probability":0.006},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":6.148316043002528,"contest_party_id":"OTZMA_YEHUDIT","display_name_en":"Otzma Yehudit","display_name_he":"עוצמה יהודית","expected_seats":7.90935,"forecast_date":"2026-10-23","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":8,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.99395,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.00605,"p_represented":0.99395,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_otzma","raw_b5_point_pp":6.262374966788755,"seat_q10":6.0,"seat_q90":11.0,"seat_range_display":"6–11","seat_range_high":11,"seat_range_low":6,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":6.148268933422455,"vote_q10_pp":4.423288950402465,"vote_q2_5_pp":3.744771212831788,"vote_q90_pp":8.079601133053469,"vote_q97_5_pp":9.369060807743717,"zero_seat_probability":0.00605},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":4.6553497364986365,"contest_party_id":"K26_NATIVE_LIST::RZP_AND_ZEHUT","display_name_en":"Religious Zionism–Zehut","display_name_he":"הציונות הדתית וזהות","expected_seats":5.4314,"forecast_date":"2026-10-23","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":6,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.8726,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.1274,"p_represented":0.8726,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_religious_zionism_zehut","raw_b5_point_pp":4.741712274969288,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":8.0,"seat_range_display":"4–8","seat_range_high":8,"seat_range_low":4,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":4.655353480088675,"vote_q10_pp":3.1214946719015297,"vote_q2_5_pp":2.562635328982169,"vote_q90_pp":6.420615682562772,"vote_q97_5_pp":7.744203173979776,"zero_seat_probability":0.1274},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":3.1153946705796183,"contest_party_id":"WINTER_NEW_PARTY","display_name_en":"Amcha Yisrael","display_name_he":"עמך ישראל","expected_seats":2.09165,"forecast_date":"2026-10-23","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":0,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.38344999999999996,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.61655,"p_represented":0.38345,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_amcha_yisrael","raw_b5_point_pp":3.1731891236965937,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":6.0,"seat_range_display":"0, 4–7","seat_range_high":7,"seat_range_low":4,"seat_range_mode":"ZERO_SEPARATED_CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":3.1154902376909686,"vote_q10_pp":1.7063577144991826,"vote_q2_5_pp":1.2891334717578455,"vote_q90_pp":4.806893210540352,"vote_q97_5_pp":6.346749434943441,"zero_seat_probability":0.61655},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":0.5926263449995827,"contest_party_id":"K26_NATIVE_LIST::HAREDI_PUBLIC","display_name_en":"Haredi Public","display_name_he":"הציבור החרדי","expected_seats":0.03955,"forecast_date":"2026-10-23","group_id":"UNCOMMITTED","headline_seats":0,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.007349999999999968,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.99265,"p_represented":0.00735,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_haredi_public","raw_b5_point_pp":0.6036203021490281,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":0.0,"seat_range_display":"0","seat_range_high":null,"seat_range_low":null,"seat_range_mode":"ZERO_ONLY_RARE_REPRESENTATION","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":0.5926470145575907,"vote_q10_pp":0.13644827196570333,"vote_q2_5_pp":0.07490238007159122,"vote_q90_pp":1.2458402481429065,"vote_q97_5_pp":2.140377198130795,"zero_seat_probability":0.99265},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":9.496255939717082,"contest_party_id":"K26_NATIVE_LIST::BEYAHAD_BENNETT","display_name_en":"Beyachad","display_name_he":"ביחד","expected_seats":12.53025,"forecast_date":"2026-10-23","group_id":"CHANGE_CORE","headline_seats":13,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":1.0,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.0,"p_represented":1.0,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_beyachad","raw_b5_point_pp":9.672423320331067,"seat_q10":10.0,"seat_q90":15.0,"seat_range_display":"10–15","seat_range_high":15,"seat_range_low":10,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":9.496278650675617,"vote_q10_pp":7.5371070201520665,"vote_q2_5_pp":6.684566124524095,"vote_q90_pp":11.599009103411404,"vote_q97_5_pp":12.971531373731278,"zero_seat_probability":0.0},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":17.11954298996529,"contest_party_id":"YASHAR_GADI_EISENKOT","display_name_en":"Yashar!","display_name_he":"ישר!","expected_seats":22.9777,"forecast_date":"2026-10-23","group_id":"CHANGE_CORE","headline_seats":23,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":1.0,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.0,"p_represented":1.0,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_yashar","raw_b5_point_pp":17.437131844456562,"seat_q10":20.0,"seat_q90":26.0,"seat_range_display":"20–26","seat_range_high":26,"seat_range_low":20,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":17.11952170327465,"vote_q10_pp":14.895371274493206,"vote_q2_5_pp":13.849216740260902,"vote_q90_pp":19.431269306861154,"vote_q97_5_pp":20.777852535432984,"zero_seat_probability":0.0},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":6.636587551468527,"contest_party_id":"YISRAEL_BEITEINU","display_name_en":"Yisrael Beiteinu","display_name_he":"ישראל ביתנו","expected_seats":8.5988,"forecast_date":"2026-10-23","group_id":"CHANGE_CORE","headline_seats":9,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.99885,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.00115,"p_represented":0.99885,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_yisrael_beiteinu","raw_b5_point_pp":6.759704520153811,"seat_q10":6.0,"seat_q90":11.0,"seat_range_display":"6–11","seat_range_high":11,"seat_range_low":6,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":6.636622588864213,"vote_q10_pp":4.854915440187106,"vote_q2_5_pp":4.131377531998166,"vote_q90_pp":8.61745015440581,"vote_q97_5_pp":9.932596104169026,"zero_seat_probability":0.00115},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":7.5500847560611195,"contest_party_id":"THE_DEMOCRATS","display_name_en":"The Democrats","display_name_he":"הדמוקרטים","expected_seats":9.85575,"forecast_date":"2026-10-23","group_id":"CHANGE_CORE","headline_seats":10,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":1.0,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.0,"p_represented":1.0,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_democrats","raw_b5_point_pp":7.690148236166573,"seat_q10":7.0,"seat_q90":13.0,"seat_range_display":"7–13","seat_range_high":13,"seat_range_low":7,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":7.549981291538759,"vote_q10_pp":5.6857582590097335,"vote_q2_5_pp":4.936954474975875,"vote_q90_pp":9.58525664331511,"vote_q97_5_pp":11.002999337432225,"zero_seat_probability":0.0},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":3.9503053370669323,"contest_party_id":"RAAM","display_name_en":"Raam","display_name_he":"רע״ם","expected_seats":3.8166,"forecast_date":"2026-10-23","group_id":"ARAB_LISTS","headline_seats":5,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.66205,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.33795,"p_represented":0.66205,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_raam","raw_b5_point_pp":4.023588423398455,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":7.0,"seat_range_display":"0, 4–8","seat_range_high":8,"seat_range_low":4,"seat_range_mode":"ZERO_SEPARATED_CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":3.950323273604046,"vote_q10_pp":2.436283198693127,"vote_q2_5_pp":1.9330648382238695,"vote_q90_pp":5.723554753346971,"vote_q97_5_pp":7.116820360961359,"zero_seat_probability":0.33795},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":5.64224365367504,"contest_party_id":"HADASH_TAAL_BALAD","display_name_en":"Joint List","display_name_he":"הרשימה המשותפת","expected_seats":7.18185,"forecast_date":"2026-10-23","group_id":"ARAB_LISTS","headline_seats":7,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.9844,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.0156,"p_represented":0.9844,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_joint_list","raw_b5_point_pp":5.746914304041212,"seat_q10":5.0,"seat_q90":10.0,"seat_range_display":"5–10","seat_range_high":10,"seat_range_low":5,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":5.642084349220134,"vote_q10_pp":4.02625236752598,"vote_q2_5_pp":3.4021684722194236,"vote_q90_pp":7.450565878418384,"vote_q97_5_pp":8.77008400020332,"zero_seat_probability":0.0156},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":1.2207565749966993,"contest_party_id":"BLUE_WHITE","display_name_en":"Blue and White","display_name_he":"כחול לבן","expected_seats":0.1981,"forecast_date":"2026-10-23","group_id":"UNCOMMITTED","headline_seats":0,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.03644999999999998,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.96355,"p_represented":0.03645,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_blue_white","raw_b5_point_pp":1.2434031306023683,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":0.0,"seat_range_display":"0","seat_range_high":null,"seat_range_low":null,"seat_range_mode":"ZERO_ONLY_RARE_REPRESENTATION","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":1.2208485407026968,"vote_q10_pp":0.4110830246152052,"vote_q2_5_pp":0.26254572406271903,"vote_q90_pp":2.3131752728438846,"vote_q97_5_pp":3.646144979218364,"zero_seat_probability":0.96355},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":2.562047576916164,"contest_party_id":"K26_NATIVE_LIST::RESERVISTS_AND_NEW_ECONOMIC_PARTY","display_name_en":"Reservists–Economic","display_name_he":"המילואימניקים והכלכלית","expected_seats":1.28675,"forecast_date":"2026-10-23","group_id":"UNCOMMITTED","headline_seats":0,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.23550000000000004,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.7645,"p_represented":0.2355,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_reservists_economic","raw_b5_point_pp":2.609576751940397,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":5.0,"seat_range_display":"0, 4–8","seat_range_high":8,"seat_range_low":4,"seat_range_mode":"ZERO_SEPARATED_CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":2.562167897386966,"vote_q10_pp":1.212819368852225,"vote_q2_5_pp":0.8711886016770733,"vote_q90_pp":4.220296870810087,"vote_q97_5_pp":5.852946650500797,"zero_seat_probability":0.7645},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":17.325179638512996,"contest_party_id":"LIKUD","display_name_en":"Likud","display_name_he":"הליכוד","expected_seats":23.521819235117327,"forecast_date":"2026-10-23","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":24,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":1.0,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.0,"p_represented":0.9999999999999998,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_likud","raw_b5_point_pp":17.646583309071026,"seat_q10":20.0,"seat_q90":27.0,"seat_range_display":"20–27","seat_range_high":27,"seat_range_low":20,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":17.539618760875108,"vote_q10_pp":15.416742245120659,"vote_q2_5_pp":14.369558653481716,"vote_q90_pp":19.74391025008753,"vote_q97_5_pp":21.005760952194276,"zero_seat_probability":0.0},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":5.674072203137139,"contest_party_id":"SHAS","display_name_en":"Shas","display_name_he":"ש״ס","expected_seats":7.529053294854311,"forecast_date":"2026-10-23","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":8,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.9954212862832615,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.004578713716738413,"p_represented":0.9954212862832614,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_shas","raw_b5_point_pp":5.779333312756207,"seat_q10":5.0,"seat_q90":10.0,"seat_range_display":"5–10","seat_range_high":10,"seat_range_low":5,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":5.874002500944088,"vote_q10_pp":4.341021986397687,"vote_q2_5_pp":3.721783767818916,"vote_q90_pp":7.556333146995818,"vote_q97_5_pp":8.633370662084147,"zero_seat_probability":0.004578713716738413},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":5.9112369834026435,"contest_party_id":"UNITED_TORAH_JUDAISM","display_name_en":"United Torah Judaism","display_name_he":"יהדות התורה","expected_seats":7.5842738000650005,"forecast_date":"2026-10-23","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":8,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.9976912781143193,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.002308721885680696,"p_represented":0.997691278114319,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_utj","raw_b5_point_pp":6.020897795217872,"seat_q10":6.0,"seat_q90":10.0,"seat_range_display":"6–10","seat_range_high":10,"seat_range_low":6,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":5.908843232125649,"vote_q10_pp":4.4686227435185355,"vote_q2_5_pp":3.88972398214975,"vote_q90_pp":7.452753687644381,"vote_q97_5_pp":8.480729049406394,"zero_seat_probability":0.002308721885680696},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":6.148316043002528,"contest_party_id":"OTZMA_YEHUDIT","display_name_en":"Otzma Yehudit","display_name_he":"עוצמה יהודית","expected_seats":7.887281225274953,"forecast_date":"2026-10-23","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":8,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.9978394517013373,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.0021605482986627993,"p_represented":0.9978394517013371,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_otzma","raw_b5_point_pp":6.262374966788755,"seat_q10":6.0,"seat_q90":10.0,"seat_range_display":"6–10","seat_range_high":10,"seat_range_low":6,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":6.131935528228402,"vote_q10_pp":4.609295758425464,"vote_q2_5_pp":3.956941070427761,"vote_q90_pp":7.781722225090371,"vote_q97_5_pp":8.841764104277527,"zero_seat_probability":0.0021605482986627993},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":4.6553497364986365,"contest_party_id":"K26_NATIVE_LIST::RZP_AND_ZEHUT","display_name_en":"Religious Zionism–Zehut","display_name_he":"הציונות הדתית וזהות","expected_seats":5.727820171323052,"forecast_date":"2026-10-23","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":6,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.9228011953029633,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.07719880469703666,"p_represented":0.9228011953029632,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_religious_zionism_zehut","raw_b5_point_pp":4.741712274969288,"seat_q10":4.0,"seat_q90":8.0,"seat_range_display":"5–8","seat_range_high":8,"seat_range_low":5,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":4.747246443412732,"vote_q10_pp":3.358857356776953,"vote_q2_5_pp":2.7407316409942086,"vote_q90_pp":6.2965562987625985,"vote_q97_5_pp":7.35581878623491,"zero_seat_probability":0.07719880469703666},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":3.1153946705796183,"contest_party_id":"WINTER_NEW_PARTY","display_name_en":"Amcha Yisrael","display_name_he":"עמך ישראל","expected_seats":1.8374789119940047,"forecast_date":"2026-10-23","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":0,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.35284560895770456,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.6471543910422954,"p_represented":0.3528456089577043,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_amcha_yisrael","raw_b5_point_pp":3.1731891236965937,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":6.0,"seat_range_display":"0, 4–7","seat_range_high":7,"seat_range_low":4,"seat_range_mode":"ZERO_SEPARATED_CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":2.995938380298642,"vote_q10_pp":1.6959836177107017,"vote_q2_5_pp":1.288184152135461,"vote_q90_pp":4.535140620145249,"vote_q97_5_pp":5.657000766993498,"zero_seat_probability":0.6471543910422954},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":0.5926263449995827,"contest_party_id":"K26_NATIVE_LIST::HAREDI_PUBLIC","display_name_en":"Haredi Public","display_name_he":"הציבור החרדי","expected_seats":0.009248305217274478,"forecast_date":"2026-10-23","group_id":"UNCOMMITTED","headline_seats":0,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.0017277925695872165,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.9982722074304128,"p_represented":0.001727792569587037,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_haredi_public","raw_b5_point_pp":0.6036203021490281,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":0.0,"seat_range_display":"0","seat_range_high":null,"seat_range_low":null,"seat_range_mode":"ZERO_ONLY_RARE_REPRESENTATION","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":0.5645046699232678,"vote_q10_pp":0.13420229300313452,"vote_q2_5_pp":0.0747728893916139,"vote_q90_pp":1.1986994272364115,"vote_q97_5_pp":1.9775027694405374,"zero_seat_probability":0.9982722074304128},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":9.496255939717082,"contest_party_id":"K26_NATIVE_LIST::BEYAHAD_BENNETT","display_name_en":"Beyachad","display_name_he":"ביחד","expected_seats":12.491164416518766,"forecast_date":"2026-10-23","group_id":"CHANGE_CORE","headline_seats":13,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":1.0,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.0,"p_represented":0.9999999999999998,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_beyachad","raw_b5_point_pp":9.672423320331067,"seat_q10":10.0,"seat_q90":15.0,"seat_range_display":"10–15","seat_range_high":15,"seat_range_low":10,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":9.48530909602056,"vote_q10_pp":7.641498784310892,"vote_q2_5_pp":6.791236221553105,"vote_q90_pp":11.472869637477462,"vote_q97_5_pp":12.723039878822211,"zero_seat_probability":0.0},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":17.11954298996529,"contest_party_id":"YASHAR_GADI_EISENKOT","display_name_en":"Yashar!","display_name_he":"ישר!","expected_seats":23.03923807007916,"forecast_date":"2026-10-23","group_id":"CHANGE_CORE","headline_seats":23,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":1.0,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.0,"p_represented":0.9999999999999998,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_yashar","raw_b5_point_pp":17.437131844456562,"seat_q10":20.0,"seat_q90":26.0,"seat_range_display":"20–26","seat_range_high":26,"seat_range_low":20,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":17.198423592818095,"vote_q10_pp":15.224624972621697,"vote_q2_5_pp":14.27575093871968,"vote_q90_pp":19.234793397916263,"vote_q97_5_pp":20.45728141878428,"zero_seat_probability":0.0},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":6.636587551468527,"contest_party_id":"YISRAEL_BEITEINU","display_name_en":"Yisrael Beiteinu","display_name_he":"ישראל ביתנו","expected_seats":8.382388365671499,"forecast_date":"2026-10-23","group_id":"CHANGE_CORE","headline_seats":8,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.9995760812649255,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.00042391873507454975,"p_represented":0.9995760812649253,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_yisrael_beiteinu","raw_b5_point_pp":6.759704520153811,"seat_q10":6.0,"seat_q90":11.0,"seat_range_display":"6–11","seat_range_high":11,"seat_range_low":6,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":6.492481703987703,"vote_q10_pp":4.949737020821849,"vote_q2_5_pp":4.283729340052103,"vote_q90_pp":8.120783085825149,"vote_q97_5_pp":9.246533282171985,"zero_seat_probability":0.00042391873507454975},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":7.5500847560611195,"contest_party_id":"THE_DEMOCRATS","display_name_en":"The Democrats","display_name_he":"הדמוקרטים","expected_seats":9.742537774070518,"forecast_date":"2026-10-23","group_id":"CHANGE_CORE","headline_seats":10,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":1.0,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.0,"p_represented":0.9999999999999998,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_democrats","raw_b5_point_pp":7.690148236166573,"seat_q10":8.0,"seat_q90":12.0,"seat_range_display":"8–12","seat_range_high":12,"seat_range_low":8,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":7.482668418596682,"vote_q10_pp":5.888458794769232,"vote_q2_5_pp":5.2059474712374145,"vote_q90_pp":9.18211386647696,"vote_q97_5_pp":10.32926753037916,"zero_seat_probability":0.0},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":3.9503053370669323,"contest_party_id":"RAAM","display_name_en":"Raam","display_name_he":"רע״ם","expected_seats":3.9577038009496457,"forecast_date":"2026-10-23","group_id":"ARAB_LISTS","headline_seats":5,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.7093486933939419,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.2906513066060581,"p_represented":0.7093486933939417,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_raam","raw_b5_point_pp":4.023588423398455,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":7.0,"seat_range_display":"4–7","seat_range_high":7,"seat_range_low":4,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":3.94880423360488,"vote_q10_pp":2.506122133770989,"vote_q2_5_pp":1.9700484542238432,"vote_q90_pp":5.511765030241158,"vote_q97_5_pp":6.553108572363429,"zero_seat_probability":0.2906513066060581},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":5.64224365367504,"contest_party_id":"HADASH_TAAL_BALAD","display_name_en":"Joint List","display_name_he":"הרשימה המשותפת","expected_seats":7.2667632751944,"forecast_date":"2026-10-23","group_id":"ARAB_LISTS","headline_seats":7,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.9941586455973288,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.005841354402671216,"p_represented":0.9941586455973286,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_joint_list","raw_b5_point_pp":5.746914304041212,"seat_q10":5.0,"seat_q90":9.0,"seat_range_display":"5–9","seat_range_high":9,"seat_range_low":5,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":5.686915996079406,"vote_q10_pp":4.233333078153563,"vote_q2_5_pp":3.6612983033665603,"vote_q90_pp":7.255269268212603,"vote_q97_5_pp":8.245478383636161,"zero_seat_probability":0.005841354402671216},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":1.2207565749966993,"contest_party_id":"BLUE_WHITE","display_name_en":"Blue and White","display_name_he":"כחול לבן","expected_seats":0.04935609784246542,"forecast_date":"2026-10-23","group_id":"UNCOMMITTED","headline_seats":0,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.009107767694328084,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.9908922323056719,"p_represented":0.009107767694327886,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_blue_white","raw_b5_point_pp":1.2434031306023683,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":0.0,"seat_range_display":"0","seat_range_high":null,"seat_range_low":null,"seat_range_mode":"ZERO_ONLY_RARE_REPRESENTATION","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":1.1352194743090007,"vote_q10_pp":0.4092693150072079,"vote_q2_5_pp":0.26100530698609203,"vote_q90_pp":2.11287924407392,"vote_q97_5_pp":2.91228902612117,"zero_seat_probability":0.9908922323056719},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":2.562047576916164,"contest_party_id":"K26_NATIVE_LIST::RESERVISTS_AND_NEW_ECONOMIC_PARTY","display_name_en":"Reservists–Economic","display_name_he":"המילואימניקים והכלכלית","expected_seats":0.9738732558275981,"forecast_date":"2026-10-23","group_id":"UNCOMMITTED","headline_seats":0,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.1900651457256346,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.8099348542743654,"p_represented":0.1900651457256344,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_reservists_economic","raw_b5_point_pp":2.609576751940397,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":5.0,"seat_range_display":"0, 4–7","seat_range_high":7,"seat_range_low":4,"seat_range_mode":"ZERO_SEPARATED_CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":2.408087968775767,"vote_q10_pp":1.1964850701270986,"vote_q2_5_pp":0.8617848701425783,"vote_q90_pp":3.854850984284165,"vote_q97_5_pp":5.086777264805965,"zero_seat_probability":0.8099348542743654},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":17.325179638512996,"contest_party_id":"LIKUD","display_name_en":"Likud","display_name_he":"הליכוד","expected_seats":23.26685,"forecast_date":"2026-10-24","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":24,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":1.0,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.0,"p_represented":1.0,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_likud","raw_b5_point_pp":17.646583309071026,"seat_q10":20.0,"seat_q90":27.0,"seat_range_display":"20–27","seat_range_high":27,"seat_range_low":20,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":17.32520211926146,"vote_q10_pp":15.166225480924263,"vote_q2_5_pp":14.112541592980046,"vote_q90_pp":19.593669731508935,"vote_q97_5_pp":20.89927232218294,"zero_seat_probability":0.0},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":5.674072203137139,"contest_party_id":"SHAS","display_name_en":"Shas","display_name_he":"ש״ס","expected_seats":7.2358,"forecast_date":"2026-10-24","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":7,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.9876,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.0124,"p_represented":0.9876,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_shas","raw_b5_point_pp":5.779333312756207,"seat_q10":5.0,"seat_q90":10.0,"seat_range_display":"5–10","seat_range_high":10,"seat_range_low":5,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":5.674068443231453,"vote_q10_pp":4.067684425679819,"vote_q2_5_pp":3.4608606216735485,"vote_q90_pp":7.4570843942886835,"vote_q97_5_pp":8.747388231447722,"zero_seat_probability":0.0124},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":5.9112369834026435,"contest_party_id":"UNITED_TORAH_JUDAISM","display_name_en":"United Torah Judaism","display_name_he":"יהדות התורה","expected_seats":7.5847,"forecast_date":"2026-10-24","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":8,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.99365,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.00635,"p_represented":0.99365,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_utj","raw_b5_point_pp":6.020897795217872,"seat_q10":5.0,"seat_q90":10.0,"seat_range_display":"5–10","seat_range_high":10,"seat_range_low":5,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":5.911249315266659,"vote_q10_pp":4.321292343159034,"vote_q2_5_pp":3.6901499684012093,"vote_q90_pp":7.674582027809964,"vote_q97_5_pp":8.907975493684765,"zero_seat_probability":0.00635},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":6.148316043002528,"contest_party_id":"OTZMA_YEHUDIT","display_name_en":"Otzma Yehudit","display_name_he":"עוצמה יהודית","expected_seats":7.917,"forecast_date":"2026-10-24","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":8,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.99495,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.00505,"p_represented":0.99495,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_otzma","raw_b5_point_pp":6.262374966788755,"seat_q10":6.0,"seat_q90":11.0,"seat_range_display":"6–11","seat_range_high":11,"seat_range_low":6,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":6.148274227102593,"vote_q10_pp":4.425402697988473,"vote_q2_5_pp":3.7507962173280713,"vote_q90_pp":8.07389286763216,"vote_q97_5_pp":9.400402177857078,"zero_seat_probability":0.00505},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":4.6553497364986365,"contest_party_id":"K26_NATIVE_LIST::RZP_AND_ZEHUT","display_name_en":"Religious Zionism–Zehut","display_name_he":"הציונות הדתית וזהות","expected_seats":5.41835,"forecast_date":"2026-10-24","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":6,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.86815,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.13185,"p_represented":0.86815,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_religious_zionism_zehut","raw_b5_point_pp":4.741712274969288,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":8.0,"seat_range_display":"4–8","seat_range_high":8,"seat_range_low":4,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":4.655345195465473,"vote_q10_pp":3.0929484860209824,"vote_q2_5_pp":2.5179931411666407,"vote_q90_pp":6.431951729873034,"vote_q97_5_pp":7.771467770436811,"zero_seat_probability":0.13185},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":3.1153946705796183,"contest_party_id":"WINTER_NEW_PARTY","display_name_en":"Amcha Yisrael","display_name_he":"עמך ישראל","expected_seats":2.0861,"forecast_date":"2026-10-24","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":0,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.38360000000000005,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.6164,"p_represented":0.3836,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_amcha_yisrael","raw_b5_point_pp":3.1731891236965937,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":6.0,"seat_range_display":"0, 4–7","seat_range_high":7,"seat_range_low":4,"seat_range_mode":"ZERO_SEPARATED_CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":3.115403431390921,"vote_q10_pp":1.7177072382303313,"vote_q2_5_pp":1.3147280942557746,"vote_q90_pp":4.8169459861912385,"vote_q97_5_pp":6.216239440952704,"zero_seat_probability":0.6164},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":0.5926263449995827,"contest_party_id":"K26_NATIVE_LIST::HAREDI_PUBLIC","display_name_en":"Haredi Public","display_name_he":"הציבור החרדי","expected_seats":0.04475,"forecast_date":"2026-10-24","group_id":"UNCOMMITTED","headline_seats":0,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.007900000000000018,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.9921,"p_represented":0.0079,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_haredi_public","raw_b5_point_pp":0.6036203021490281,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":0.0,"seat_range_display":"0","seat_range_high":null,"seat_range_low":null,"seat_range_mode":"ZERO_ONLY_RARE_REPRESENTATION","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":0.5926706343877671,"vote_q10_pp":0.13879493966212483,"vote_q2_5_pp":0.07779414062090792,"vote_q90_pp":1.2283341987993266,"vote_q97_5_pp":2.1751724895074593,"zero_seat_probability":0.9921},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":9.496255939717082,"contest_party_id":"K26_NATIVE_LIST::BEYAHAD_BENNETT","display_name_en":"Beyachad","display_name_he":"ביחד","expected_seats":12.53045,"forecast_date":"2026-10-24","group_id":"CHANGE_CORE","headline_seats":13,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":1.0,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.0,"p_represented":1.0,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_beyachad","raw_b5_point_pp":9.672423320331067,"seat_q10":10.0,"seat_q90":15.0,"seat_range_display":"10–15","seat_range_high":15,"seat_range_low":10,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":9.496296770219042,"vote_q10_pp":7.569711113253153,"vote_q2_5_pp":6.73323696627938,"vote_q90_pp":11.6206461239139,"vote_q97_5_pp":12.932353193481955,"zero_seat_probability":0.0},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":17.11954298996529,"contest_party_id":"YASHAR_GADI_EISENKOT","display_name_en":"Yashar!","display_name_he":"ישר!","expected_seats":22.9817,"forecast_date":"2026-10-24","group_id":"CHANGE_CORE","headline_seats":23,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":1.0,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.0,"p_represented":1.0,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_yashar","raw_b5_point_pp":17.437131844456562,"seat_q10":20.0,"seat_q90":26.0,"seat_range_display":"20–26","seat_range_high":26,"seat_range_low":20,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":17.119546802327577,"vote_q10_pp":14.906619324268338,"vote_q2_5_pp":13.83731814178584,"vote_q90_pp":19.399789921089376,"vote_q97_5_pp":20.84864776012094,"zero_seat_probability":0.0},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":6.636587551468527,"contest_party_id":"YISRAEL_BEITEINU","display_name_en":"Yisrael Beiteinu","display_name_he":"ישראל ביתנו","expected_seats":8.60495,"forecast_date":"2026-10-24","group_id":"CHANGE_CORE","headline_seats":9,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.9992,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.0008,"p_represented":0.9992,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_yisrael_beiteinu","raw_b5_point_pp":6.759704520153811,"seat_q10":6.0,"seat_q90":11.0,"seat_range_display":"6–11","seat_range_high":11,"seat_range_low":6,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":6.636546423641056,"vote_q10_pp":4.8878705458503475,"vote_q2_5_pp":4.1747922689110855,"vote_q90_pp":8.57470633904947,"vote_q97_5_pp":9.915363794535608,"zero_seat_probability":0.0008},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":7.5500847560611195,"contest_party_id":"THE_DEMOCRATS","display_name_en":"The Democrats","display_name_he":"הדמוקרטים","expected_seats":9.85905,"forecast_date":"2026-10-24","group_id":"CHANGE_CORE","headline_seats":10,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":1.0,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.0,"p_represented":1.0,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_democrats","raw_b5_point_pp":7.690148236166573,"seat_q10":7.0,"seat_q90":13.0,"seat_range_display":"7–13","seat_range_high":13,"seat_range_low":7,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":7.550188755435506,"vote_q10_pp":5.701343630278854,"vote_q2_5_pp":4.94023403677938,"vote_q90_pp":9.548368981630887,"vote_q97_5_pp":10.95839197066581,"zero_seat_probability":0.0},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":3.9503053370669323,"contest_party_id":"RAAM","display_name_en":"Raam","display_name_he":"רע״ם","expected_seats":3.82915,"forecast_date":"2026-10-24","group_id":"ARAB_LISTS","headline_seats":5,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.6649,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.3351,"p_represented":0.6649,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_raam","raw_b5_point_pp":4.023588423398455,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":7.0,"seat_range_display":"0, 4–8","seat_range_high":8,"seat_range_low":4,"seat_range_mode":"ZERO_SEPARATED_CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":3.9502940943599656,"vote_q10_pp":2.4484298388825354,"vote_q2_5_pp":1.9429968851667525,"vote_q90_pp":5.715550565244296,"vote_q97_5_pp":7.041347891337616,"zero_seat_probability":0.3351},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":5.64224365367504,"contest_party_id":"HADASH_TAAL_BALAD","display_name_en":"Joint List","display_name_he":"הרשימה המשותפת","expected_seats":7.18285,"forecast_date":"2026-10-24","group_id":"ARAB_LISTS","headline_seats":7,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.98445,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.01555,"p_represented":0.98445,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_joint_list","raw_b5_point_pp":5.746914304041212,"seat_q10":5.0,"seat_q90":10.0,"seat_range_display":"5–10","seat_range_high":10,"seat_range_low":5,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":5.642165927423658,"vote_q10_pp":4.02822358150315,"vote_q2_5_pp":3.3964430158148278,"vote_q90_pp":7.4268794840237,"vote_q97_5_pp":8.682471408842446,"zero_seat_probability":0.01555},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":1.2207565749966993,"contest_party_id":"BLUE_WHITE","display_name_en":"Blue and White","display_name_he":"כחול לבן","expected_seats":0.18095,"forecast_date":"2026-10-24","group_id":"UNCOMMITTED","headline_seats":0,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.03420000000000001,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.9658,"p_represented":0.0342,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_blue_white","raw_b5_point_pp":1.2434031306023683,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":0.0,"seat_range_display":"0","seat_range_high":null,"seat_range_low":null,"seat_range_mode":"ZERO_ONLY_RARE_REPRESENTATION","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":1.2207301633186691,"vote_q10_pp":0.42539424353675775,"vote_q2_5_pp":0.26872935443867646,"vote_q90_pp":2.29767187589524,"vote_q97_5_pp":3.5213943166506896,"zero_seat_probability":0.9658},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":2.562047576916164,"contest_party_id":"K26_NATIVE_LIST::RESERVISTS_AND_NEW_ECONOMIC_PARTY","display_name_en":"Reservists–Economic","display_name_he":"המילואימניקים והכלכלית","expected_seats":1.27735,"forecast_date":"2026-10-24","group_id":"UNCOMMITTED","headline_seats":0,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.23275,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.76725,"p_represented":0.23275,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_reservists_economic","raw_b5_point_pp":2.609576751940397,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":5.0,"seat_range_display":"0, 4–8","seat_range_high":8,"seat_range_low":4,"seat_range_mode":"ZERO_SEPARATED_CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":2.5620176971682067,"vote_q10_pp":1.218326941765504,"vote_q2_5_pp":0.8839048847014899,"vote_q90_pp":4.2425100293368665,"vote_q97_5_pp":5.868827904196909,"zero_seat_probability":0.76725},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":17.325179638512996,"contest_party_id":"LIKUD","display_name_en":"Likud","display_name_he":"הליכוד","expected_seats":23.50452559766328,"forecast_date":"2026-10-24","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":24,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":1.0,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.0,"p_represented":1.0,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_likud","raw_b5_point_pp":17.646583309071026,"seat_q10":21.0,"seat_q90":27.0,"seat_range_display":"21–27","seat_range_high":27,"seat_range_low":21,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":17.52652466194997,"vote_q10_pp":15.395724262530281,"vote_q2_5_pp":14.400368614269912,"vote_q90_pp":19.74789882435383,"vote_q97_5_pp":21.05939715433385,"zero_seat_probability":0.0},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":5.674072203137139,"contest_party_id":"SHAS","display_name_en":"Shas","display_name_he":"ש״ס","expected_seats":7.534007864724323,"forecast_date":"2026-10-24","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":8,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.9958057935976715,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.004194206402328465,"p_represented":0.9958057935976714,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_shas","raw_b5_point_pp":5.779333312756207,"seat_q10":5.0,"seat_q90":10.0,"seat_range_display":"5–10","seat_range_high":10,"seat_range_low":5,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":5.872453243310814,"vote_q10_pp":4.354691290477829,"vote_q2_5_pp":3.7309265478445233,"vote_q90_pp":7.527058474506595,"vote_q97_5_pp":8.654827979816487,"zero_seat_probability":0.004194206402328465},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":5.9112369834026435,"contest_party_id":"UNITED_TORAH_JUDAISM","display_name_en":"United Torah Judaism","display_name_he":"יהדות התורה","expected_seats":7.580268018192594,"forecast_date":"2026-10-24","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":8,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.997762356224592,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.002237643775408045,"p_represented":0.9977623562245919,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_utj","raw_b5_point_pp":6.020897795217872,"seat_q10":6.0,"seat_q90":10.0,"seat_range_display":"6–10","seat_range_high":10,"seat_range_low":6,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":5.906039496596246,"vote_q10_pp":4.491635308328221,"vote_q2_5_pp":3.887361433348116,"vote_q90_pp":7.448978246643845,"vote_q97_5_pp":8.43645962908833,"zero_seat_probability":0.002237643775408045},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":6.148316043002528,"contest_party_id":"OTZMA_YEHUDIT","display_name_en":"Otzma Yehudit","display_name_he":"עוצמה יהודית","expected_seats":7.886402355113132,"forecast_date":"2026-10-24","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":8,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.9982213999252394,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.0017786000747605961,"p_represented":0.9982213999252393,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_otzma","raw_b5_point_pp":6.262374966788755,"seat_q10":6.0,"seat_q90":10.0,"seat_range_display":"6–10","seat_range_high":10,"seat_range_low":6,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":6.127619663925344,"vote_q10_pp":4.608146133552358,"vote_q2_5_pp":3.991924815510294,"vote_q90_pp":7.75554979510213,"vote_q97_5_pp":8.822492569715068,"zero_seat_probability":0.0017786000747605961},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":4.6553497364986365,"contest_party_id":"K26_NATIVE_LIST::RZP_AND_ZEHUT","display_name_en":"Religious Zionism–Zehut","display_name_he":"הציונות הדתית וזהות","expected_seats":5.719884412858395,"forecast_date":"2026-10-24","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":6,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.9187986212307668,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.08120137876923322,"p_represented":0.9187986212307667,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_religious_zionism_zehut","raw_b5_point_pp":4.741712274969288,"seat_q10":4.0,"seat_q90":8.0,"seat_range_display":"5–8","seat_range_high":8,"seat_range_low":5,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":4.75095570036216,"vote_q10_pp":3.3544065604862237,"vote_q2_5_pp":2.7049799300387813,"vote_q90_pp":6.301060190779817,"vote_q97_5_pp":7.326190730797184,"zero_seat_probability":0.08120137876923322},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":3.1153946705796183,"contest_party_id":"WINTER_NEW_PARTY","display_name_en":"Amcha Yisrael","display_name_he":"עמך ישראל","expected_seats":1.8485446525254061,"forecast_date":"2026-10-24","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":0,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.35458888728558247,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.6454111127144175,"p_represented":0.3545888872855824,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_amcha_yisrael","raw_b5_point_pp":3.1731891236965937,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":6.0,"seat_range_display":"0, 4–7","seat_range_high":7,"seat_range_low":4,"seat_range_mode":"ZERO_SEPARATED_CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":3.0046920733208156,"vote_q10_pp":1.7079286607948463,"vote_q2_5_pp":1.3157593238473815,"vote_q90_pp":4.531106823707868,"vote_q97_5_pp":5.646081652314971,"zero_seat_probability":0.6454111127144175},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":0.5926263449995827,"contest_party_id":"K26_NATIVE_LIST::HAREDI_PUBLIC","display_name_en":"Haredi Public","display_name_he":"הציבור החרדי","expected_seats":0.00939336347773721,"forecast_date":"2026-10-24","group_id":"UNCOMMITTED","headline_seats":0,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.0016883405242008598,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.9983116594757991,"p_represented":0.0016883405242008533,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_haredi_public","raw_b5_point_pp":0.6036203021490281,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":0.0,"seat_range_display":"0","seat_range_high":null,"seat_range_low":null,"seat_range_mode":"ZERO_ONLY_RARE_REPRESENTATION","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":0.568690432354194,"vote_q10_pp":0.13905552244538882,"vote_q2_5_pp":0.07745154583781404,"vote_q90_pp":1.1927464898346474,"vote_q97_5_pp":2.011125456629722,"zero_seat_probability":0.9983116594757991},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":9.496255939717082,"contest_party_id":"K26_NATIVE_LIST::BEYAHAD_BENNETT","display_name_en":"Beyachad","display_name_he":"ביחד","expected_seats":12.488050143025578,"forecast_date":"2026-10-24","group_id":"CHANGE_CORE","headline_seats":13,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":1.0,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.0,"p_represented":1.0,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_beyachad","raw_b5_point_pp":9.672423320331067,"seat_q10":10.0,"seat_q90":15.0,"seat_range_display":"10–15","seat_range_high":15,"seat_range_low":10,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":9.482810582785602,"vote_q10_pp":7.67203017200641,"vote_q2_5_pp":6.856745950019127,"vote_q90_pp":11.45373388230606,"vote_q97_5_pp":12.656297075134065,"zero_seat_probability":0.0},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":17.11954298996529,"contest_party_id":"YASHAR_GADI_EISENKOT","display_name_en":"Yashar!","display_name_he":"ישר!","expected_seats":23.034462973858343,"forecast_date":"2026-10-24","group_id":"CHANGE_CORE","headline_seats":23,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":1.0,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.0,"p_represented":1.0,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_yashar","raw_b5_point_pp":17.437131844456562,"seat_q10":20.0,"seat_q90":26.0,"seat_range_display":"20–26","seat_range_high":26,"seat_range_low":20,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":17.18997359332904,"vote_q10_pp":15.257521011705768,"vote_q2_5_pp":14.290917724108189,"vote_q90_pp":19.175469579389635,"vote_q97_5_pp":20.475498216661837,"zero_seat_probability":0.0},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":6.636587551468527,"contest_party_id":"YISRAEL_BEITEINU","display_name_en":"Yisrael Beiteinu","display_name_he":"ישראל ביתנו","expected_seats":8.382850658827088,"forecast_date":"2026-10-24","group_id":"CHANGE_CORE","headline_seats":8,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.9997343437530359,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.0002656562469640939,"p_represented":0.9997343437530358,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_yisrael_beiteinu","raw_b5_point_pp":6.759704520153811,"seat_q10":6.0,"seat_q90":11.0,"seat_range_display":"6–11","seat_range_high":11,"seat_range_low":6,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":6.488208726536506,"vote_q10_pp":4.972770589492625,"vote_q2_5_pp":4.318073586689255,"vote_q90_pp":8.11556959393654,"vote_q97_5_pp":9.198923641263526,"zero_seat_probability":0.0002656562469640939},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":7.5500847560611195,"contest_party_id":"THE_DEMOCRATS","display_name_en":"The Democrats","display_name_he":"הדמוקרטים","expected_seats":9.755328028727384,"forecast_date":"2026-10-24","group_id":"CHANGE_CORE","headline_seats":10,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":1.0,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.0,"p_represented":1.0,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_democrats","raw_b5_point_pp":7.690148236166573,"seat_q10":8.0,"seat_q90":12.0,"seat_range_display":"8–12","seat_range_high":12,"seat_range_low":8,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":7.488809645366339,"vote_q10_pp":5.900044046741557,"vote_q2_5_pp":5.204961384269989,"vote_q90_pp":9.165806047445479,"vote_q97_5_pp":10.310676454756274,"zero_seat_probability":0.0},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":3.9503053370669323,"contest_party_id":"RAAM","display_name_en":"Raam","display_name_he":"רע״ם","expected_seats":3.98397104784636,"forecast_date":"2026-10-24","group_id":"ARAB_LISTS","headline_seats":5,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.715018228514646,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.284981771485354,"p_represented":0.7150182285146459,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_raam","raw_b5_point_pp":4.023588423398455,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":7.0,"seat_range_display":"4–7","seat_range_high":7,"seat_range_low":4,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":3.9538485439930735,"vote_q10_pp":2.530904317822612,"vote_q2_5_pp":1.987263605860631,"vote_q90_pp":5.485483582972356,"vote_q97_5_pp":6.572282780754004,"zero_seat_probability":0.284981771485354},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":5.64224365367504,"contest_party_id":"HADASH_TAAL_BALAD","display_name_en":"Joint List","display_name_he":"הרשימה המשותפת","expected_seats":7.258133707764357,"forecast_date":"2026-10-24","group_id":"ARAB_LISTS","headline_seats":7,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.9938233109380127,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.006176689061987292,"p_represented":0.9938233109380126,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_joint_list","raw_b5_point_pp":5.746914304041212,"seat_q10":5.0,"seat_q90":9.0,"seat_range_display":"5–9","seat_range_high":9,"seat_range_low":5,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":5.677685402216195,"vote_q10_pp":4.241888814169085,"vote_q2_5_pp":3.6507706354996667,"vote_q90_pp":7.213193552073434,"vote_q97_5_pp":8.231044235982852,"zero_seat_probability":0.006176689061987292},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":1.2207565749966993,"contest_party_id":"BLUE_WHITE","display_name_en":"Blue and White","display_name_he":"כחול לבן","expected_seats":0.04469006587628138,"forecast_date":"2026-10-24","group_id":"UNCOMMITTED","headline_seats":0,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.0084443676698428,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.9915556323301572,"p_represented":0.008444367669842748,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_blue_white","raw_b5_point_pp":1.2434031306023683,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":0.0,"seat_range_display":"0","seat_range_high":null,"seat_range_low":null,"seat_range_mode":"ZERO_ONLY_RARE_REPRESENTATION","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":1.145033179347929,"vote_q10_pp":0.4238243633501742,"vote_q2_5_pp":0.2669924577727009,"vote_q90_pp":2.1256738098295824,"vote_q97_5_pp":2.9210969424452413,"zero_seat_probability":0.9915556323301572},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":2.562047576916164,"contest_party_id":"K26_NATIVE_LIST::RESERVISTS_AND_NEW_ECONOMIC_PARTY","display_name_en":"Reservists–Economic","display_name_he":"המילואימניקים והכלכלית","expected_seats":0.9694871095197302,"forecast_date":"2026-10-24","group_id":"UNCOMMITTED","headline_seats":0,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.1889700473339766,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.8110299526660234,"p_represented":0.1889700473339765,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_reservists_economic","raw_b5_point_pp":2.609576751940397,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":5.0,"seat_range_display":"0, 4–7","seat_range_high":7,"seat_range_low":4,"seat_range_mode":"ZERO_SEPARATED_CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":2.4166550546057572,"vote_q10_pp":1.2066643501144176,"vote_q2_5_pp":0.877921969044282,"vote_q90_pp":3.8743048234447395,"vote_q97_5_pp":5.085077984984449,"zero_seat_probability":0.8110299526660234},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":17.325179638512996,"contest_party_id":"LIKUD","display_name_en":"Likud","display_name_he":"הליכוד","expected_seats":23.26355,"forecast_date":"2026-10-25","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":24,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":1.0,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.0,"p_represented":1.0,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_likud","raw_b5_point_pp":17.646583309071026,"seat_q10":20.0,"seat_q90":26.0,"seat_range_display":"20–26","seat_range_high":26,"seat_range_low":20,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":17.32511906004485,"vote_q10_pp":15.152065194719656,"vote_q2_5_pp":14.123248694826568,"vote_q90_pp":19.580543651012125,"vote_q97_5_pp":20.879986429181155,"zero_seat_probability":0.0},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":5.674072203137139,"contest_party_id":"SHAS","display_name_en":"Shas","display_name_he":"ש״ס","expected_seats":7.236,"forecast_date":"2026-10-25","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":7,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.98795,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.01205,"p_represented":0.98795,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_shas","raw_b5_point_pp":5.779333312756207,"seat_q10":5.0,"seat_q90":10.0,"seat_range_display":"5–10","seat_range_high":10,"seat_range_low":5,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":5.674158350133033,"vote_q10_pp":4.084862132237769,"vote_q2_5_pp":3.463577714615232,"vote_q90_pp":7.465943623647594,"vote_q97_5_pp":8.707559271384744,"zero_seat_probability":0.01205},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":5.9112369834026435,"contest_party_id":"UNITED_TORAH_JUDAISM","display_name_en":"United Torah Judaism","display_name_he":"יהדות התורה","expected_seats":7.586,"forecast_date":"2026-10-25","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":8,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.99405,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.00595,"p_represented":0.99405,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_utj","raw_b5_point_pp":6.020897795217872,"seat_q10":5.0,"seat_q90":10.0,"seat_range_display":"5–10","seat_range_high":10,"seat_range_low":5,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":5.911317676002216,"vote_q10_pp":4.303286747211037,"vote_q2_5_pp":3.692615208302466,"vote_q90_pp":7.696812190700589,"vote_q97_5_pp":8.886115627749032,"zero_seat_probability":0.00595},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":6.148316043002528,"contest_party_id":"OTZMA_YEHUDIT","display_name_en":"Otzma Yehudit","display_name_he":"עוצמה יהודית","expected_seats":7.91375,"forecast_date":"2026-10-25","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":8,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.9937,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.0063,"p_represented":0.9937,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_otzma","raw_b5_point_pp":6.262374966788755,"seat_q10":6.0,"seat_q90":11.0,"seat_range_display":"6–11","seat_range_high":11,"seat_range_low":6,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":6.1482661318886995,"vote_q10_pp":4.4083071201273745,"vote_q2_5_pp":3.7578194581291444,"vote_q90_pp":8.047246780398735,"vote_q97_5_pp":9.446114922588805,"zero_seat_probability":0.0063},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":4.6553497364986365,"contest_party_id":"K26_NATIVE_LIST::RZP_AND_ZEHUT","display_name_en":"Religious Zionism–Zehut","display_name_he":"הציונות הדתית וזהות","expected_seats":5.4258,"forecast_date":"2026-10-25","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":6,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.8714,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.1286,"p_represented":0.87145,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_religious_zionism_zehut","raw_b5_point_pp":4.741712274969288,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":8.0,"seat_range_display":"4–9","seat_range_high":9,"seat_range_low":4,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":4.655367600360335,"vote_q10_pp":3.111391599990014,"vote_q2_5_pp":2.550359836631124,"vote_q90_pp":6.430327727087271,"vote_q97_5_pp":7.746347583150062,"zero_seat_probability":0.12855},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":3.1153946705796183,"contest_party_id":"WINTER_NEW_PARTY","display_name_en":"Amcha Yisrael","display_name_he":"עמך ישראל","expected_seats":2.0763,"forecast_date":"2026-10-25","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":0,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.38365000000000005,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.61635,"p_represented":0.38365,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_amcha_yisrael","raw_b5_point_pp":3.1731891236965937,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":6.0,"seat_range_display":"0, 4–7","seat_range_high":7,"seat_range_low":4,"seat_range_mode":"ZERO_SEPARATED_CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":3.1153221478060913,"vote_q10_pp":1.7248254537646441,"vote_q2_5_pp":1.2949247481247257,"vote_q90_pp":4.7656486948399985,"vote_q97_5_pp":6.285556144231628,"zero_seat_probability":0.61635},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":0.5926263449995827,"contest_party_id":"K26_NATIVE_LIST::HAREDI_PUBLIC","display_name_en":"Haredi Public","display_name_he":"הציבור החרדי","expected_seats":0.045,"forecast_date":"2026-10-25","group_id":"UNCOMMITTED","headline_seats":0,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.007950000000000013,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.99205,"p_represented":0.00795,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_haredi_public","raw_b5_point_pp":0.6036203021490281,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":0.0,"seat_range_display":"0","seat_range_high":null,"seat_range_low":null,"seat_range_mode":"ZERO_ONLY_RARE_REPRESENTATION","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":0.5926460956753205,"vote_q10_pp":0.1369436615393872,"vote_q2_5_pp":0.07937068670314938,"vote_q90_pp":1.2243605276365213,"vote_q97_5_pp":2.1937107779491956,"zero_seat_probability":0.99205},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":9.496255939717082,"contest_party_id":"K26_NATIVE_LIST::BEYAHAD_BENNETT","display_name_en":"Beyachad","display_name_he":"ביחד","expected_seats":12.52505,"forecast_date":"2026-10-25","group_id":"CHANGE_CORE","headline_seats":13,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":1.0,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.0,"p_represented":1.0,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_beyachad","raw_b5_point_pp":9.672423320331067,"seat_q10":10.0,"seat_q90":15.0,"seat_range_display":"10–15","seat_range_high":15,"seat_range_low":10,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":9.496295856442403,"vote_q10_pp":7.555091327480693,"vote_q2_5_pp":6.737675037585045,"vote_q90_pp":11.596423119125328,"vote_q97_5_pp":12.909210907418178,"zero_seat_probability":0.0},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":17.11954298996529,"contest_party_id":"YASHAR_GADI_EISENKOT","display_name_en":"Yashar!","display_name_he":"ישר!","expected_seats":22.9811,"forecast_date":"2026-10-25","group_id":"CHANGE_CORE","headline_seats":23,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":1.0,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.0,"p_represented":1.0,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_yashar","raw_b5_point_pp":17.437131844456562,"seat_q10":20.0,"seat_q90":26.0,"seat_range_display":"20–26","seat_range_high":26,"seat_range_low":20,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":17.11955206723573,"vote_q10_pp":14.88872782285459,"vote_q2_5_pp":13.86558689269232,"vote_q90_pp":19.432475128998707,"vote_q97_5_pp":20.771744346503986,"zero_seat_probability":0.0},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":6.636587551468527,"contest_party_id":"YISRAEL_BEITEINU","display_name_en":"Yisrael Beiteinu","display_name_he":"ישראל ביתנו","expected_seats":8.6009,"forecast_date":"2026-10-25","group_id":"CHANGE_CORE","headline_seats":9,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.99885,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.00115,"p_represented":0.99885,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_yisrael_beiteinu","raw_b5_point_pp":6.759704520153811,"seat_q10":6.0,"seat_q90":11.0,"seat_range_display":"6–11","seat_range_high":11,"seat_range_low":6,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":6.6366334121790835,"vote_q10_pp":4.881284518837411,"vote_q2_5_pp":4.15191486322475,"vote_q90_pp":8.595971265229815,"vote_q97_5_pp":9.987345891658341,"zero_seat_probability":0.00115},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":7.5500847560611195,"contest_party_id":"THE_DEMOCRATS","display_name_en":"The Democrats","display_name_he":"הדמוקרטים","expected_seats":9.85865,"forecast_date":"2026-10-25","group_id":"CHANGE_CORE","headline_seats":10,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":1.0,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.0,"p_represented":1.0,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_democrats","raw_b5_point_pp":7.690148236166573,"seat_q10":7.0,"seat_q90":13.0,"seat_range_display":"7–13","seat_range_high":13,"seat_range_low":7,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":7.5500574726945695,"vote_q10_pp":5.712515458427925,"vote_q2_5_pp":4.969865852771838,"vote_q90_pp":9.55325231605035,"vote_q97_5_pp":10.925541525228411,"zero_seat_probability":0.0},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":3.9503053370669323,"contest_party_id":"RAAM","display_name_en":"Raam","display_name_he":"רע״ם","expected_seats":3.8293,"forecast_date":"2026-10-25","group_id":"ARAB_LISTS","headline_seats":5,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.6641,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.3359,"p_represented":0.6641,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_raam","raw_b5_point_pp":4.023588423398455,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":7.0,"seat_range_display":"0, 4–8","seat_range_high":8,"seat_range_low":4,"seat_range_mode":"ZERO_SEPARATED_CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":3.9503311190640806,"vote_q10_pp":2.4302405846265254,"vote_q2_5_pp":1.9367127138344673,"vote_q90_pp":5.6995180210763445,"vote_q97_5_pp":7.11798010497572,"zero_seat_probability":0.3359},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":5.64224365367504,"contest_party_id":"HADASH_TAAL_BALAD","display_name_en":"Joint List","display_name_he":"הרשימה המשותפת","expected_seats":7.184,"forecast_date":"2026-10-25","group_id":"ARAB_LISTS","headline_seats":7,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.9862,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.0138,"p_represented":0.9862,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_joint_list","raw_b5_point_pp":5.746914304041212,"seat_q10":5.0,"seat_q90":10.0,"seat_range_display":"5–10","seat_range_high":10,"seat_range_low":5,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":5.642199470316757,"vote_q10_pp":4.04075464114446,"vote_q2_5_pp":3.4303954559296086,"vote_q90_pp":7.46221782754581,"vote_q97_5_pp":8.749080439903024,"zero_seat_probability":0.0138},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":1.2207565749966993,"contest_party_id":"BLUE_WHITE","display_name_en":"Blue and White","display_name_he":"כחול לבן","expected_seats":0.18135,"forecast_date":"2026-10-25","group_id":"UNCOMMITTED","headline_seats":0,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.033499999999999974,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.9665,"p_represented":0.0335,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_blue_white","raw_b5_point_pp":1.2434031306023683,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":0.0,"seat_range_display":"0","seat_range_high":null,"seat_range_low":null,"seat_range_mode":"ZERO_ONLY_RARE_REPRESENTATION","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":1.2206744471346818,"vote_q10_pp":0.4188839440387733,"vote_q2_5_pp":0.26833660177042074,"vote_q90_pp":2.280831660572706,"vote_q97_5_pp":3.556197466817159,"zero_seat_probability":0.9665},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":2.562047576916164,"contest_party_id":"K26_NATIVE_LIST::RESERVISTS_AND_NEW_ECONOMIC_PARTY","display_name_en":"Reservists–Economic","display_name_he":"המילואימניקים והכלכלית","expected_seats":1.29325,"forecast_date":"2026-10-25","group_id":"UNCOMMITTED","headline_seats":0,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.23604999999999998,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.76395,"p_represented":0.23605,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_reservists_economic","raw_b5_point_pp":2.609576751940397,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":5.0,"seat_range_display":"0, 4–8","seat_range_high":8,"seat_range_low":4,"seat_range_mode":"ZERO_SEPARATED_CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":2.56205909302215,"vote_q10_pp":1.2102009623496346,"vote_q2_5_pp":0.8656888907179998,"vote_q90_pp":4.261532916352056,"vote_q97_5_pp":5.893768725713677,"zero_seat_probability":0.76395},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":17.325179638512996,"contest_party_id":"LIKUD","display_name_en":"Likud","display_name_he":"הליכוד","expected_seats":23.521012369748927,"forecast_date":"2026-10-25","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":24,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":1.0,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.0,"p_represented":0.9999999999999999,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_likud","raw_b5_point_pp":17.646583309071026,"seat_q10":20.0,"seat_q90":27.0,"seat_range_display":"20–27","seat_range_high":27,"seat_range_low":20,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":17.542208966907324,"vote_q10_pp":15.40513738540081,"vote_q2_5_pp":14.375568427346048,"vote_q90_pp":19.748559223200463,"vote_q97_5_pp":21.000836031048124,"zero_seat_probability":0.0},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":5.674072203137139,"contest_party_id":"SHAS","display_name_en":"Shas","display_name_he":"ש״ס","expected_seats":7.518507624552013,"forecast_date":"2026-10-25","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":8,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.9962345627634001,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.003765437236599943,"p_represented":0.9962345627634001,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_shas","raw_b5_point_pp":5.779333312756207,"seat_q10":5.0,"seat_q90":10.0,"seat_range_display":"5–10","seat_range_high":10,"seat_range_low":5,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":5.8609748764686564,"vote_q10_pp":4.356253233422046,"vote_q2_5_pp":3.7479364993699456,"vote_q90_pp":7.522272691428831,"vote_q97_5_pp":8.573848103960344,"zero_seat_probability":0.003765437236599943},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":5.9112369834026435,"contest_party_id":"UNITED_TORAH_JUDAISM","display_name_en":"United Torah Judaism","display_name_he":"יהדות התורה","expected_seats":7.589805297000208,"forecast_date":"2026-10-25","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":8,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.9977667740751711,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.002233225924828916,"p_represented":0.9977667740751711,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_utj","raw_b5_point_pp":6.020897795217872,"seat_q10":6.0,"seat_q90":10.0,"seat_range_display":"6–10","seat_range_high":10,"seat_range_low":6,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":5.913106787648152,"vote_q10_pp":4.479940079988896,"vote_q2_5_pp":3.8704376251183215,"vote_q90_pp":7.474251752510576,"vote_q97_5_pp":8.45102285700832,"zero_seat_probability":0.002233225924828916},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":6.148316043002528,"contest_party_id":"OTZMA_YEHUDIT","display_name_en":"Otzma Yehudit","display_name_he":"עוצמה יהודית","expected_seats":7.872812583755075,"forecast_date":"2026-10-25","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":8,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.9979922187965727,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.002007781203427274,"p_represented":0.9979922187965726,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_otzma","raw_b5_point_pp":6.262374966788755,"seat_q10":6.0,"seat_q90":10.0,"seat_range_display":"6–10","seat_range_high":10,"seat_range_low":6,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":6.119241288265963,"vote_q10_pp":4.602731260403737,"vote_q2_5_pp":3.9598961794733265,"vote_q90_pp":7.719673164818948,"vote_q97_5_pp":8.80868336355393,"zero_seat_probability":0.002007781203427274},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":4.6553497364986365,"contest_party_id":"K26_NATIVE_LIST::RZP_AND_ZEHUT","display_name_en":"Religious Zionism–Zehut","display_name_he":"הציונות הדתית וזהות","expected_seats":5.714440542827366,"forecast_date":"2026-10-25","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":6,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.9212019364854546,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.07879806351454544,"p_represented":0.9212156110920857,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_religious_zionism_zehut","raw_b5_point_pp":4.741712274969288,"seat_q10":4.0,"seat_q90":8.0,"seat_range_display":"5–8","seat_range_high":8,"seat_range_low":5,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":4.7413340271036954,"vote_q10_pp":3.363396924096036,"vote_q2_5_pp":2.7193112092573215,"vote_q90_pp":6.284070512308135,"vote_q97_5_pp":7.3530419187419875,"zero_seat_probability":0.07878438890791425},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":3.1153946705796183,"contest_party_id":"WINTER_NEW_PARTY","display_name_en":"Amcha Yisrael","display_name_he":"עמך ישראל","expected_seats":1.847850875498556,"forecast_date":"2026-10-25","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":0,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.3574045963122472,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.6425954036877528,"p_represented":0.3574045963122471,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_amcha_yisrael","raw_b5_point_pp":3.1731891236965937,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":6.0,"seat_range_display":"0, 4–7","seat_range_high":7,"seat_range_low":4,"seat_range_mode":"ZERO_SEPARATED_CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":3.0113388875564833,"vote_q10_pp":1.7257733634772454,"vote_q2_5_pp":1.2954605468716485,"vote_q90_pp":4.504760167775134,"vote_q97_5_pp":5.587127106476941,"zero_seat_probability":0.6425954036877528},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":0.5926263449995827,"contest_party_id":"K26_NATIVE_LIST::HAREDI_PUBLIC","display_name_en":"Haredi Public","display_name_he":"הציבור החרדי","expected_seats":0.011081597405018604,"forecast_date":"2026-10-25","group_id":"UNCOMMITTED","headline_seats":0,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.001962235409362356,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.9980377645906376,"p_represented":0.001962235409362233,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_haredi_public","raw_b5_point_pp":0.6036203021490281,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":0.0,"seat_range_display":"0","seat_range_high":null,"seat_range_low":null,"seat_range_mode":"ZERO_ONLY_RARE_REPRESENTATION","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":0.5644630463451923,"vote_q10_pp":0.13619136701161097,"vote_q2_5_pp":0.07825605531933594,"vote_q90_pp":1.1717846353663344,"vote_q97_5_pp":1.9947324854693615,"zero_seat_probability":0.9980377645906376},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":9.496255939717082,"contest_party_id":"K26_NATIVE_LIST::BEYAHAD_BENNETT","display_name_en":"Beyachad","display_name_he":"ביחד","expected_seats":12.48191543613618,"forecast_date":"2026-10-25","group_id":"CHANGE_CORE","headline_seats":13,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":1.0,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.0,"p_represented":0.9999999999999999,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_beyachad","raw_b5_point_pp":9.672423320331067,"seat_q10":10.0,"seat_q90":15.0,"seat_range_display":"10–15","seat_range_high":15,"seat_range_low":10,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":9.483290615614226,"vote_q10_pp":7.648414132347465,"vote_q2_5_pp":6.8656389493613945,"vote_q90_pp":11.450161093863024,"vote_q97_5_pp":12.659214434267705,"zero_seat_probability":0.0},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":17.11954298996529,"contest_party_id":"YASHAR_GADI_EISENKOT","display_name_en":"Yashar!","display_name_he":"ישר!","expected_seats":23.046326050872175,"forecast_date":"2026-10-25","group_id":"CHANGE_CORE","headline_seats":23,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":1.0,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.0,"p_represented":0.9999999999999999,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_yashar","raw_b5_point_pp":17.437131844456562,"seat_q10":20.0,"seat_q90":26.0,"seat_range_display":"20–26","seat_range_high":26,"seat_range_low":20,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":17.199905138148694,"vote_q10_pp":15.220885886899586,"vote_q2_5_pp":14.306555815917362,"vote_q90_pp":19.230633503853078,"vote_q97_5_pp":20.41639507304241,"zero_seat_probability":0.0},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":6.636587551468527,"contest_party_id":"YISRAEL_BEITEINU","display_name_en":"Yisrael Beiteinu","display_name_he":"ישראל ביתנו","expected_seats":8.386316749091083,"forecast_date":"2026-10-25","group_id":"CHANGE_CORE","headline_seats":8,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.9996445022247216,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.0003554977752784291,"p_represented":0.9996445022247216,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_yisrael_beiteinu","raw_b5_point_pp":6.759704520153811,"seat_q10":6.0,"seat_q90":11.0,"seat_range_display":"6–11","seat_range_high":11,"seat_range_low":6,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":6.4928319336279205,"vote_q10_pp":4.97995818755864,"vote_q2_5_pp":4.342074868563214,"vote_q90_pp":8.117047448651379,"vote_q97_5_pp":9.246977813026952,"zero_seat_probability":0.0003554977752784291},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":7.5500847560611195,"contest_party_id":"THE_DEMOCRATS","display_name_en":"The Democrats","display_name_he":"הדמוקרטים","expected_seats":9.755169825838532,"forecast_date":"2026-10-25","group_id":"CHANGE_CORE","headline_seats":10,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":1.0,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.0,"p_represented":0.9999999999999999,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_democrats","raw_b5_point_pp":7.690148236166573,"seat_q10":8.0,"seat_q90":12.0,"seat_range_display":"8–12","seat_range_high":12,"seat_range_low":8,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":7.489827649375833,"vote_q10_pp":5.899798781461959,"vote_q2_5_pp":5.205137457473561,"vote_q90_pp":9.189271864922235,"vote_q97_5_pp":10.287097273756917,"zero_seat_probability":0.0},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":3.9503053370669323,"contest_party_id":"RAAM","display_name_en":"Raam","display_name_he":"רע״ם","expected_seats":3.9798920627110363,"forecast_date":"2026-10-25","group_id":"ARAB_LISTS","headline_seats":5,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.7134739137975654,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.2865260862024346,"p_represented":0.7134739137975653,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_raam","raw_b5_point_pp":4.023588423398455,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":7.0,"seat_range_display":"4–7","seat_range_high":7,"seat_range_low":4,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":3.954558208260441,"vote_q10_pp":2.529176501247757,"vote_q2_5_pp":1.9978251236367242,"vote_q90_pp":5.484121035116847,"vote_q97_5_pp":6.596827527571034,"zero_seat_probability":0.2865260862024346},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":5.64224365367504,"contest_party_id":"HADASH_TAAL_BALAD","display_name_en":"Joint List","display_name_he":"הרשימה המשותפת","expected_seats":7.250678580657699,"forecast_date":"2026-10-25","group_id":"ARAB_LISTS","headline_seats":7,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.9947554493815345,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.005244550618465556,"p_represented":0.9947554493815343,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_joint_list","raw_b5_point_pp":5.746914304041212,"seat_q10":5.0,"seat_q90":9.0,"seat_range_display":"5–9","seat_range_high":9,"seat_range_low":5,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":5.674865433809936,"vote_q10_pp":4.234974985933947,"vote_q2_5_pp":3.682781589615304,"vote_q90_pp":7.241709914727085,"vote_q97_5_pp":8.322424053628,"zero_seat_probability":0.005244550618465556},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":1.2207565749966993,"contest_party_id":"BLUE_WHITE","display_name_en":"Blue and White","display_name_he":"כחול לבן","expected_seats":0.046388920213853616,"forecast_date":"2026-10-25","group_id":"UNCOMMITTED","headline_seats":0,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.008577456872787215,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.9914225431272128,"p_represented":0.008577456872787246,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_blue_white","raw_b5_point_pp":1.2434031306023683,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":0.0,"seat_range_display":"0","seat_range_high":null,"seat_range_low":null,"seat_range_mode":"ZERO_ONLY_RARE_REPRESENTATION","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":1.1411252225961244,"vote_q10_pp":0.4153256834587,"vote_q2_5_pp":0.2668881336687909,"vote_q90_pp":2.1199311680359787,"vote_q97_5_pp":2.88983106298373,"zero_seat_probability":0.9914225431272128},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":2.562047576916164,"contest_party_id":"K26_NATIVE_LIST::RESERVISTS_AND_NEW_ECONOMIC_PARTY","display_name_en":"Reservists–Economic","display_name_he":"המילואימניקים והכלכלית","expected_seats":0.9778014836922706,"forecast_date":"2026-10-25","group_id":"UNCOMMITTED","headline_seats":0,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.18995375623448085,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.8100462437655191,"p_represented":0.1899537562344807,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_reservists_economic","raw_b5_point_pp":2.609576751940397,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":5.0,"seat_range_display":"0, 4–7","seat_range_high":7,"seat_range_low":4,"seat_range_mode":"ZERO_SEPARATED_CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":2.410927918271347,"vote_q10_pp":1.1940996928077399,"vote_q2_5_pp":0.854073769638364,"vote_q90_pp":3.8995143823300493,"vote_q97_5_pp":5.106463575226249,"zero_seat_probability":0.8100462437655191},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":17.325179638512996,"contest_party_id":"LIKUD","display_name_en":"Likud","display_name_he":"הליכוד","expected_seats":23.2672,"forecast_date":"2026-10-26","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":24,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":1.0,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.0,"p_represented":1.0,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_likud","raw_b5_point_pp":17.646583309071026,"seat_q10":20.0,"seat_q90":27.0,"seat_range_display":"20–27","seat_range_high":27,"seat_range_low":20,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":17.325167418286227,"vote_q10_pp":15.172340031621527,"vote_q2_5_pp":14.159974193530747,"vote_q90_pp":19.58762706547563,"vote_q97_5_pp":20.931603876865193,"zero_seat_probability":0.0},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":5.674072203137139,"contest_party_id":"SHAS","display_name_en":"Shas","display_name_he":"ש״ס","expected_seats":7.23975,"forecast_date":"2026-10-26","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":7,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.9879,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.0121,"p_represented":0.9879,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_shas","raw_b5_point_pp":5.779333312756207,"seat_q10":5.0,"seat_q90":10.0,"seat_range_display":"5–10","seat_range_high":10,"seat_range_low":5,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":5.674059396658421,"vote_q10_pp":4.081063835352736,"vote_q2_5_pp":3.4799017751140617,"vote_q90_pp":7.44903247576856,"vote_q97_5_pp":8.7295334141453,"zero_seat_probability":0.0121},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":5.9112369834026435,"contest_party_id":"UNITED_TORAH_JUDAISM","display_name_en":"United Torah Judaism","display_name_he":"יהדות התורה","expected_seats":7.59015,"forecast_date":"2026-10-26","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":8,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.9944,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.0056,"p_represented":0.9944,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_utj","raw_b5_point_pp":6.020897795217872,"seat_q10":5.0,"seat_q90":10.0,"seat_range_display":"5–10","seat_range_high":10,"seat_range_low":5,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":5.911191878203007,"vote_q10_pp":4.31924386979301,"vote_q2_5_pp":3.6807559897539015,"vote_q90_pp":7.692052032245664,"vote_q97_5_pp":8.91914070460535,"zero_seat_probability":0.0056},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":6.148316043002528,"contest_party_id":"OTZMA_YEHUDIT","display_name_en":"Otzma Yehudit","display_name_he":"עוצמה יהודית","expected_seats":7.90935,"forecast_date":"2026-10-26","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":8,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.9943,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.0057,"p_represented":0.9943,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_otzma","raw_b5_point_pp":6.262374966788755,"seat_q10":6.0,"seat_q90":11.0,"seat_range_display":"6–11","seat_range_high":11,"seat_range_low":6,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":6.148325973615731,"vote_q10_pp":4.395208689295082,"vote_q2_5_pp":3.7203384203005614,"vote_q90_pp":8.11974600719919,"vote_q97_5_pp":9.504285370710093,"zero_seat_probability":0.0057},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":4.6553497364986365,"contest_party_id":"K26_NATIVE_LIST::RZP_AND_ZEHUT","display_name_en":"Religious Zionism–Zehut","display_name_he":"הציונות הדתית וזהות","expected_seats":5.4232,"forecast_date":"2026-10-26","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":6,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.87035,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.12965,"p_represented":0.87035,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_religious_zionism_zehut","raw_b5_point_pp":4.741712274969288,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":8.0,"seat_range_display":"4–8","seat_range_high":8,"seat_range_low":4,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":4.6553790373185,"vote_q10_pp":3.100349236808127,"vote_q2_5_pp":2.5320059900505,"vote_q90_pp":6.4110463969907725,"vote_q97_5_pp":7.756655333325139,"zero_seat_probability":0.12965},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":3.1153946705796183,"contest_party_id":"WINTER_NEW_PARTY","display_name_en":"Amcha Yisrael","display_name_he":"עמך ישראל","expected_seats":2.07595,"forecast_date":"2026-10-26","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":0,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.38055000000000005,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.61945,"p_represented":0.38055,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_amcha_yisrael","raw_b5_point_pp":3.1731891236965937,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":6.0,"seat_range_display":"0, 4–7","seat_range_high":7,"seat_range_low":4,"seat_range_mode":"ZERO_SEPARATED_CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":3.1153763362782687,"vote_q10_pp":1.7210328879379404,"vote_q2_5_pp":1.3052548015446832,"vote_q90_pp":4.808116094140826,"vote_q97_5_pp":6.243129071485284,"zero_seat_probability":0.61945},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":0.5926263449995827,"contest_party_id":"K26_NATIVE_LIST::HAREDI_PUBLIC","display_name_en":"Haredi Public","display_name_he":"הציבור החרדי","expected_seats":0.03805,"forecast_date":"2026-10-26","group_id":"UNCOMMITTED","headline_seats":0,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.006950000000000012,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.99305,"p_represented":0.00695,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_haredi_public","raw_b5_point_pp":0.6036203021490281,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":0.0,"seat_range_display":"0","seat_range_high":null,"seat_range_low":null,"seat_range_mode":"ZERO_ONLY_RARE_REPRESENTATION","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":0.5925790417941033,"vote_q10_pp":0.14256706782153603,"vote_q2_5_pp":0.07978148511669729,"vote_q90_pp":1.2243523237824476,"vote_q97_5_pp":2.139504950565625,"zero_seat_probability":0.99305},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":9.496255939717082,"contest_party_id":"K26_NATIVE_LIST::BEYAHAD_BENNETT","display_name_en":"Beyachad","display_name_he":"ביחד","expected_seats":12.5279,"forecast_date":"2026-10-26","group_id":"CHANGE_CORE","headline_seats":13,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":1.0,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.0,"p_represented":1.0,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_beyachad","raw_b5_point_pp":9.672423320331067,"seat_q10":10.0,"seat_q90":15.0,"seat_range_display":"10–15","seat_range_high":15,"seat_range_low":10,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":9.496209257974792,"vote_q10_pp":7.513686928929024,"vote_q2_5_pp":6.698984607840041,"vote_q90_pp":11.620796361742666,"vote_q97_5_pp":13.012260509637827,"zero_seat_probability":0.0},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":17.11954298996529,"contest_party_id":"YASHAR_GADI_EISENKOT","display_name_en":"Yashar!","display_name_he":"ישר!","expected_seats":22.98785,"forecast_date":"2026-10-26","group_id":"CHANGE_CORE","headline_seats":23,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":1.0,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.0,"p_represented":1.0,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_yashar","raw_b5_point_pp":17.437131844456562,"seat_q10":20.0,"seat_q90":26.0,"seat_range_display":"20–26","seat_range_high":26,"seat_range_low":20,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":17.119573772740107,"vote_q10_pp":14.88840913486164,"vote_q2_5_pp":13.796549053544263,"vote_q90_pp":19.420684104866407,"vote_q97_5_pp":20.802122718891017,"zero_seat_probability":0.0},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":6.636587551468527,"contest_party_id":"YISRAEL_BEITEINU","display_name_en":"Yisrael Beiteinu","display_name_he":"ישראל ביתנו","expected_seats":8.59945,"forecast_date":"2026-10-26","group_id":"CHANGE_CORE","headline_seats":9,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.99875,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.00125,"p_represented":0.99875,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_yisrael_beiteinu","raw_b5_point_pp":6.759704520153811,"seat_q10":6.0,"seat_q90":11.0,"seat_range_display":"6–11","seat_range_high":11,"seat_range_low":6,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":6.636668715696694,"vote_q10_pp":4.85958109621289,"vote_q2_5_pp":4.167478663847102,"vote_q90_pp":8.610049933641577,"vote_q97_5_pp":9.964694504394814,"zero_seat_probability":0.00125},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":7.5500847560611195,"contest_party_id":"THE_DEMOCRATS","display_name_en":"The Democrats","display_name_he":"הדמוקרטים","expected_seats":9.8607,"forecast_date":"2026-10-26","group_id":"CHANGE_CORE","headline_seats":10,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":1.0,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.0,"p_represented":1.0,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_democrats","raw_b5_point_pp":7.690148236166573,"seat_q10":7.0,"seat_q90":13.0,"seat_range_display":"7–13","seat_range_high":13,"seat_range_low":7,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":7.550155566644497,"vote_q10_pp":5.701688835779509,"vote_q2_5_pp":4.942850192938193,"vote_q90_pp":9.570122172967755,"vote_q97_5_pp":10.949111282191831,"zero_seat_probability":0.0},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":3.9503053370669323,"contest_party_id":"RAAM","display_name_en":"Raam","display_name_he":"רע״ם","expected_seats":3.8297,"forecast_date":"2026-10-26","group_id":"ARAB_LISTS","headline_seats":5,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.6632,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.3368,"p_represented":0.6632,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_raam","raw_b5_point_pp":4.023588423398455,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":7.0,"seat_range_display":"0, 4–8","seat_range_high":8,"seat_range_low":4,"seat_range_mode":"ZERO_SEPARATED_CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":3.95031186421647,"vote_q10_pp":2.4326124156659854,"vote_q2_5_pp":1.933185565772935,"vote_q90_pp":5.730381444879679,"vote_q97_5_pp":7.111577823084525,"zero_seat_probability":0.3368},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":5.64224365367504,"contest_party_id":"HADASH_TAAL_BALAD","display_name_en":"Joint List","display_name_he":"הרשימה המשותפת","expected_seats":7.18285,"forecast_date":"2026-10-26","group_id":"ARAB_LISTS","headline_seats":7,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.9843,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.0157,"p_represented":0.9843,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_joint_list","raw_b5_point_pp":5.746914304041212,"seat_q10":5.0,"seat_q90":10.0,"seat_range_display":"5–10","seat_range_high":10,"seat_range_low":5,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":5.642361441043179,"vote_q10_pp":4.033148598699551,"vote_q2_5_pp":3.413775882480627,"vote_q90_pp":7.427234901334501,"vote_q97_5_pp":8.701206824749509,"zero_seat_probability":0.0157},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":1.2207565749966993,"contest_party_id":"BLUE_WHITE","display_name_en":"Blue and White","display_name_he":"כחול לבן","expected_seats":0.1853,"forecast_date":"2026-10-26","group_id":"UNCOMMITTED","headline_seats":0,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.03539999999999999,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.9646,"p_represented":0.0354,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_blue_white","raw_b5_point_pp":1.2434031306023683,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":0.0,"seat_range_display":"0","seat_range_high":null,"seat_range_low":null,"seat_range_mode":"ZERO_ONLY_RARE_REPRESENTATION","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":1.220668812437426,"vote_q10_pp":0.4261205565808001,"vote_q2_5_pp":0.2737009283475735,"vote_q90_pp":2.2931766204299224,"vote_q97_5_pp":3.5602008174389748,"zero_seat_probability":0.9646},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":2.562047576916164,"contest_party_id":"K26_NATIVE_LIST::RESERVISTS_AND_NEW_ECONOMIC_PARTY","display_name_en":"Reservists–Economic","display_name_he":"המילואימניקים והכלכלית","expected_seats":1.2826,"forecast_date":"2026-10-26","group_id":"UNCOMMITTED","headline_seats":0,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.23340000000000005,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.7666,"p_represented":0.2334,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_reservists_economic","raw_b5_point_pp":2.609576751940397,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":5.0,"seat_range_display":"0, 4–8","seat_range_high":8,"seat_range_low":4,"seat_range_mode":"ZERO_SEPARATED_CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":2.5619714870925696,"vote_q10_pp":1.2278576382864839,"vote_q2_5_pp":0.8706336261631078,"vote_q90_pp":4.275774279469804,"vote_q97_5_pp":5.825649790587764,"zero_seat_probability":0.7666},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":17.325179638512996,"contest_party_id":"LIKUD","display_name_en":"Likud","display_name_he":"הליכוד","expected_seats":23.526905208643775,"forecast_date":"2026-10-26","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":24,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":1.0,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.0,"p_represented":1.0,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_likud","raw_b5_point_pp":17.646583309071026,"seat_q10":21.0,"seat_q90":27.0,"seat_range_display":"21–27","seat_range_high":27,"seat_range_low":21,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":17.542776303655376,"vote_q10_pp":15.437310733845038,"vote_q2_5_pp":14.407942646273037,"vote_q90_pp":19.764988986417798,"vote_q97_5_pp":21.069902458193635,"zero_seat_probability":0.0},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":5.674072203137139,"contest_party_id":"SHAS","display_name_en":"Shas","display_name_he":"ש״ס","expected_seats":7.536094461609734,"forecast_date":"2026-10-26","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":8,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.9960722386383422,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.00392776136165782,"p_represented":0.9960722386383423,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_shas","raw_b5_point_pp":5.779333312756207,"seat_q10":5.0,"seat_q90":10.0,"seat_range_display":"5–10","seat_range_high":10,"seat_range_low":5,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":5.871696687242487,"vote_q10_pp":4.3517919901790245,"vote_q2_5_pp":3.7537479280762156,"vote_q90_pp":7.535388232605523,"vote_q97_5_pp":8.652987842749024,"zero_seat_probability":0.00392776136165782},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":5.9112369834026435,"contest_party_id":"UNITED_TORAH_JUDAISM","display_name_en":"United Torah Judaism","display_name_he":"יהדות התורה","expected_seats":7.571161802188609,"forecast_date":"2026-10-26","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":8,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.9979536176538806,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.002046382346119378,"p_represented":0.9979536176538806,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_utj","raw_b5_point_pp":6.020897795217872,"seat_q10":6.0,"seat_q90":10.0,"seat_range_display":"6–10","seat_range_high":10,"seat_range_low":6,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":5.896663311233206,"vote_q10_pp":4.473686797901121,"vote_q2_5_pp":3.886444957329634,"vote_q90_pp":7.430899276342626,"vote_q97_5_pp":8.45822103740736,"zero_seat_probability":0.002046382346119378},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":6.148316043002528,"contest_party_id":"OTZMA_YEHUDIT","display_name_en":"Otzma Yehudit","display_name_he":"עוצמה יהודית","expected_seats":7.870904231166522,"forecast_date":"2026-10-26","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":8,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.9979665111326117,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.0020334888673883104,"p_represented":0.9979665111326118,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_otzma","raw_b5_point_pp":6.262374966788755,"seat_q10":6.0,"seat_q90":10.0,"seat_range_display":"6–10","seat_range_high":10,"seat_range_low":6,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":6.12129233932399,"vote_q10_pp":4.59278111593233,"vote_q2_5_pp":3.947487213907552,"vote_q90_pp":7.770142967966228,"vote_q97_5_pp":8.858784107101368,"zero_seat_probability":0.0020334888673883104},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":4.6553497364986365,"contest_party_id":"K26_NATIVE_LIST::RZP_AND_ZEHUT","display_name_en":"Religious Zionism–Zehut","display_name_he":"הציונות הדתית וזהות","expected_seats":5.717269134886595,"forecast_date":"2026-10-26","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":6,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.9210692212044974,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.07893077879550263,"p_represented":0.9210692212044974,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_religious_zionism_zehut","raw_b5_point_pp":4.741712274969288,"seat_q10":4.0,"seat_q90":8.0,"seat_range_display":"5–8","seat_range_high":8,"seat_range_low":5,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":4.744607017160582,"vote_q10_pp":3.367939042322277,"vote_q2_5_pp":2.7199177223595616,"vote_q90_pp":6.26109507347182,"vote_q97_5_pp":7.2999944072397795,"zero_seat_probability":0.07893077879550263},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":3.1153946705796183,"contest_party_id":"WINTER_NEW_PARTY","display_name_en":"Amcha Yisrael","display_name_he":"עמך ישראל","expected_seats":1.821916914773709,"forecast_date":"2026-10-26","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":0,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.3500115083136637,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.6499884916863363,"p_represented":0.3500115083136636,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_amcha_yisrael","raw_b5_point_pp":3.1731891236965937,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":6.0,"seat_range_display":"0, 4–7","seat_range_high":7,"seat_range_low":4,"seat_range_mode":"ZERO_SEPARATED_CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":2.995643938129854,"vote_q10_pp":1.6984352220927466,"vote_q2_5_pp":1.2947728158095557,"vote_q90_pp":4.5158055900683545,"vote_q97_5_pp":5.6665202542195425,"zero_seat_probability":0.6499884916863363},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":0.5926263449995827,"contest_party_id":"K26_NATIVE_LIST::HAREDI_PUBLIC","display_name_en":"Haredi Public","display_name_he":"הציבור החרדי","expected_seats":0.008966199085523754,"forecast_date":"2026-10-26","group_id":"UNCOMMITTED","headline_seats":0,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.0016251713608030904,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.9983748286391969,"p_represented":0.0016251713608031368,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_haredi_public","raw_b5_point_pp":0.6036203021490281,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":0.0,"seat_range_display":"0","seat_range_high":null,"seat_range_low":null,"seat_range_mode":"ZERO_ONLY_RARE_REPRESENTATION","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":0.5720076259733282,"vote_q10_pp":0.14158138737969964,"vote_q2_5_pp":0.07874177152161022,"vote_q90_pp":1.192619453229994,"vote_q97_5_pp":1.988881326311262,"zero_seat_probability":0.9983748286391969},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":9.496255939717082,"contest_party_id":"K26_NATIVE_LIST::BEYAHAD_BENNETT","display_name_en":"Beyachad","display_name_he":"ביחד","expected_seats":12.510349681816553,"forecast_date":"2026-10-26","group_id":"CHANGE_CORE","headline_seats":13,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":1.0,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.0,"p_represented":1.0,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_beyachad","raw_b5_point_pp":9.672423320331067,"seat_q10":10.0,"seat_q90":15.0,"seat_range_display":"10–15","seat_range_high":15,"seat_range_low":10,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":9.49961633020584,"vote_q10_pp":7.612915356854286,"vote_q2_5_pp":6.847389958263137,"vote_q90_pp":11.48105542084187,"vote_q97_5_pp":12.7065326538635,"zero_seat_probability":0.0},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":17.11954298996529,"contest_party_id":"YASHAR_GADI_EISENKOT","display_name_en":"Yashar!","display_name_he":"ישר!","expected_seats":23.05667293472716,"forecast_date":"2026-10-26","group_id":"CHANGE_CORE","headline_seats":23,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":1.0,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.0,"p_represented":1.0,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_yashar","raw_b5_point_pp":17.437131844456562,"seat_q10":20.0,"seat_q90":26.0,"seat_range_display":"20–26","seat_range_high":26,"seat_range_low":20,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":17.19996129205662,"vote_q10_pp":15.238336174809628,"vote_q2_5_pp":14.283485654985007,"vote_q90_pp":19.225998011463467,"vote_q97_5_pp":20.430998277985044,"zero_seat_probability":0.0},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":6.636587551468527,"contest_party_id":"YISRAEL_BEITEINU","display_name_en":"Yisrael Beiteinu","display_name_he":"ישראל ביתנו","expected_seats":8.37785510868235,"forecast_date":"2026-10-26","group_id":"CHANGE_CORE","headline_seats":8,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.999531776143797,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.0004682238562029969,"p_represented":0.999531776143797,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_yisrael_beiteinu","raw_b5_point_pp":6.759704520153811,"seat_q10":6.0,"seat_q90":11.0,"seat_range_display":"6–11","seat_range_high":11,"seat_range_low":6,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":6.487908919003672,"vote_q10_pp":4.964073542808667,"vote_q2_5_pp":4.325597271483769,"vote_q90_pp":8.11569488212279,"vote_q97_5_pp":9.230084750053276,"zero_seat_probability":0.0004682238562029969},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":7.5500847560611195,"contest_party_id":"THE_DEMOCRATS","display_name_en":"The Democrats","display_name_he":"הדמוקרטים","expected_seats":9.753880831559453,"forecast_date":"2026-10-26","group_id":"CHANGE_CORE","headline_seats":10,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":1.0,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.0,"p_represented":1.0,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_democrats","raw_b5_point_pp":7.690148236166573,"seat_q10":8.0,"seat_q90":12.0,"seat_range_display":"8–12","seat_range_high":12,"seat_range_low":8,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":7.4861867944500515,"vote_q10_pp":5.873945110083633,"vote_q2_5_pp":5.174799065898659,"vote_q90_pp":9.196696315909632,"vote_q97_5_pp":10.292462739450364,"zero_seat_probability":0.0},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":3.9503053370669323,"contest_party_id":"RAAM","display_name_en":"Raam","display_name_he":"רע״ם","expected_seats":3.985718738390433,"forecast_date":"2026-10-26","group_id":"ARAB_LISTS","headline_seats":5,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.714747651555558,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.285252348444442,"p_represented":0.7147476515555581,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_raam","raw_b5_point_pp":4.023588423398455,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":7.0,"seat_range_display":"4–7","seat_range_high":7,"seat_range_low":4,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":3.949982767001607,"vote_q10_pp":2.5073476683466365,"vote_q2_5_pp":1.9884312193402538,"vote_q90_pp":5.484467177791679,"vote_q97_5_pp":6.573885784992932,"zero_seat_probability":0.285252348444442},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":5.64224365367504,"contest_party_id":"HADASH_TAAL_BALAD","display_name_en":"Joint List","display_name_he":"הרשימה המשותפת","expected_seats":7.256966633636434,"forecast_date":"2026-10-26","group_id":"ARAB_LISTS","headline_seats":7,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.993776411344677,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.006223588655323001,"p_represented":0.993776411344677,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_joint_list","raw_b5_point_pp":5.746914304041212,"seat_q10":5.0,"seat_q90":9.0,"seat_range_display":"5–9","seat_range_high":9,"seat_range_low":5,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":5.678731901337308,"vote_q10_pp":4.244864146459997,"vote_q2_5_pp":3.664203953224115,"vote_q90_pp":7.231871371839641,"vote_q97_5_pp":8.236874036057863,"zero_seat_probability":0.006223588655323001},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":1.2207565749966993,"contest_party_id":"BLUE_WHITE","display_name_en":"Blue and White","display_name_he":"כחול לבן","expected_seats":0.046856440095878193,"forecast_date":"2026-10-26","group_id":"UNCOMMITTED","headline_seats":0,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.008961924010411404,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.9910380759895886,"p_represented":0.008961924010411439,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_blue_white","raw_b5_point_pp":1.2434031306023683,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":0.0,"seat_range_display":"0","seat_range_high":null,"seat_range_low":null,"seat_range_mode":"ZERO_ONLY_RARE_REPRESENTATION","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":1.143939217932746,"vote_q10_pp":0.4244892982840885,"vote_q2_5_pp":0.27078098166928527,"vote_q90_pp":2.1144806578107485,"vote_q97_5_pp":2.895569967082476,"zero_seat_probability":0.9910380759895886},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":2.562047576916164,"contest_party_id":"K26_NATIVE_LIST::RESERVISTS_AND_NEW_ECONOMIC_PARTY","display_name_en":"Reservists–Economic","display_name_he":"המילואימניקים והכלכלית","expected_seats":0.9584816787372794,"forecast_date":"2026-10-26","group_id":"UNCOMMITTED","headline_seats":0,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.18622303423680486,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.8137769657631951,"p_represented":0.18622303423680492,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_reservists_economic","raw_b5_point_pp":2.609576751940397,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":5.0,"seat_range_display":"0, 4–7","seat_range_high":7,"seat_range_low":4,"seat_range_mode":"ZERO_SEPARATED_CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":2.408985555293333,"vote_q10_pp":1.2124036412558576,"vote_q2_5_pp":0.8736383563263024,"vote_q90_pp":3.900537206976779,"vote_q97_5_pp":5.107828640642783,"zero_seat_probability":0.8137769657631951},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":17.325179638512996,"contest_party_id":"LIKUD","display_name_en":"Likud","display_name_he":"הליכוד","expected_seats":23.26685,"forecast_date":"2026-10-27","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":24,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":1.0,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.0,"p_represented":1.0,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_likud","raw_b5_point_pp":17.646583309071026,"seat_q10":20.0,"seat_q90":27.0,"seat_range_display":"20–27","seat_range_high":27,"seat_range_low":20,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":17.325216425175952,"vote_q10_pp":15.12953182957455,"vote_q2_5_pp":14.103361722243665,"vote_q90_pp":19.601978025248346,"vote_q97_5_pp":20.969419010494327,"zero_seat_probability":0.0},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":5.674072203137139,"contest_party_id":"SHAS","display_name_en":"Shas","display_name_he":"ש״ס","expected_seats":7.2382,"forecast_date":"2026-10-27","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":7,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.98765,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.01235,"p_represented":0.98765,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_shas","raw_b5_point_pp":5.779333312756207,"seat_q10":5.0,"seat_q90":10.0,"seat_range_display":"5–10","seat_range_high":10,"seat_range_low":5,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":5.674047655179812,"vote_q10_pp":4.070571226583077,"vote_q2_5_pp":3.4882045935913206,"vote_q90_pp":7.475612775606241,"vote_q97_5_pp":8.776832142227816,"zero_seat_probability":0.01235},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":5.9112369834026435,"contest_party_id":"UNITED_TORAH_JUDAISM","display_name_en":"United Torah Judaism","display_name_he":"יהדות התורה","expected_seats":7.579,"forecast_date":"2026-10-27","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":8,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.99305,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.00695,"p_represented":0.99305,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_utj","raw_b5_point_pp":6.020897795217872,"seat_q10":5.0,"seat_q90":10.0,"seat_range_display":"5–10","seat_range_high":10,"seat_range_low":5,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":5.9112532490617795,"vote_q10_pp":4.2897741445121955,"vote_q2_5_pp":3.674796675866004,"vote_q90_pp":7.713790728833866,"vote_q97_5_pp":8.940202115781887,"zero_seat_probability":0.00695},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":6.148316043002528,"contest_party_id":"OTZMA_YEHUDIT","display_name_en":"Otzma Yehudit","display_name_he":"עוצמה יהודית","expected_seats":7.9147,"forecast_date":"2026-10-27","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":8,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.99445,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.00555,"p_represented":0.99445,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_otzma","raw_b5_point_pp":6.262374966788755,"seat_q10":6.0,"seat_q90":11.0,"seat_range_display":"6–11","seat_range_high":11,"seat_range_low":6,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":6.148320833336914,"vote_q10_pp":4.441788680131063,"vote_q2_5_pp":3.750906574497001,"vote_q90_pp":8.07767873743886,"vote_q97_5_pp":9.452296281189584,"zero_seat_probability":0.00555},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":4.6553497364986365,"contest_party_id":"K26_NATIVE_LIST::RZP_AND_ZEHUT","display_name_en":"Religious Zionism–Zehut","display_name_he":"הציונות הדתית וזהות","expected_seats":5.3972,"forecast_date":"2026-10-27","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":6,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.8629,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.1371,"p_represented":0.8629,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_religious_zionism_zehut","raw_b5_point_pp":4.741712274969288,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":8.0,"seat_range_display":"4–9","seat_range_high":9,"seat_range_low":4,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":4.655461311194471,"vote_q10_pp":3.084760665039785,"vote_q2_5_pp":2.5148885841889017,"vote_q90_pp":6.482014194191656,"vote_q97_5_pp":7.784520621851912,"zero_seat_probability":0.1371},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":3.1153946705796183,"contest_party_id":"WINTER_NEW_PARTY","display_name_en":"Amcha Yisrael","display_name_he":"עמך ישראל","expected_seats":2.07775,"forecast_date":"2026-10-27","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":0,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.3821,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.6179,"p_represented":0.3821,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_amcha_yisrael","raw_b5_point_pp":3.1731891236965937,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":6.0,"seat_range_display":"0, 4–7","seat_range_high":7,"seat_range_low":4,"seat_range_mode":"ZERO_SEPARATED_CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":3.1152841649800953,"vote_q10_pp":1.7195524182021922,"vote_q2_5_pp":1.3181567940927048,"vote_q90_pp":4.794917225874744,"vote_q97_5_pp":6.228823677787938,"zero_seat_probability":0.6179},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":0.5926263449995827,"contest_party_id":"K26_NATIVE_LIST::HAREDI_PUBLIC","display_name_en":"Haredi Public","display_name_he":"הציבור החרדי","expected_seats":0.0453,"forecast_date":"2026-10-27","group_id":"UNCOMMITTED","headline_seats":0,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.008199999999999985,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.9918,"p_represented":0.0082,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_haredi_public","raw_b5_point_pp":0.6036203021490281,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":0.0,"seat_range_display":"0","seat_range_high":null,"seat_range_low":null,"seat_range_mode":"ZERO_ONLY_RARE_REPRESENTATION","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":0.5926570201904392,"vote_q10_pp":0.13876273842608008,"vote_q2_5_pp":0.07773849610198101,"vote_q90_pp":1.2457074617496715,"vote_q97_5_pp":2.193488645485552,"zero_seat_probability":0.9918},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":9.496255939717082,"contest_party_id":"K26_NATIVE_LIST::BEYAHAD_BENNETT","display_name_en":"Beyachad","display_name_he":"ביחד","expected_seats":12.5271,"forecast_date":"2026-10-27","group_id":"CHANGE_CORE","headline_seats":13,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":1.0,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.0,"p_represented":1.0,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_beyachad","raw_b5_point_pp":9.672423320331067,"seat_q10":10.0,"seat_q90":16.0,"seat_range_display":"10–16","seat_range_high":16,"seat_range_low":10,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":9.496333013941102,"vote_q10_pp":7.519910449529963,"vote_q2_5_pp":6.6809093908164146,"vote_q90_pp":11.651410794773772,"vote_q97_5_pp":13.023233474829018,"zero_seat_probability":0.0},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":17.11954298996529,"contest_party_id":"YASHAR_GADI_EISENKOT","display_name_en":"Yashar!","display_name_he":"ישר!","expected_seats":22.9844,"forecast_date":"2026-10-27","group_id":"CHANGE_CORE","headline_seats":23,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":1.0,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.0,"p_represented":1.0,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_yashar","raw_b5_point_pp":17.437131844456562,"seat_q10":20.0,"seat_q90":26.0,"seat_range_display":"20–26","seat_range_high":26,"seat_range_low":20,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":17.119612677676592,"vote_q10_pp":14.878091536567897,"vote_q2_5_pp":13.850771210517838,"vote_q90_pp":19.436707361308933,"vote_q97_5_pp":20.76465664359728,"zero_seat_probability":0.0},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":6.636587551468527,"contest_party_id":"YISRAEL_BEITEINU","display_name_en":"Yisrael Beiteinu","display_name_he":"ישראל ביתנו","expected_seats":8.5974,"forecast_date":"2026-10-27","group_id":"CHANGE_CORE","headline_seats":9,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.99865,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.00135,"p_represented":0.99865,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_yisrael_beiteinu","raw_b5_point_pp":6.759704520153811,"seat_q10":6.0,"seat_q90":11.0,"seat_range_display":"6–11","seat_range_high":11,"seat_range_low":6,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":6.6364435120309615,"vote_q10_pp":4.878937002908959,"vote_q2_5_pp":4.149334301657663,"vote_q90_pp":8.573044099326548,"vote_q97_5_pp":9.945742954732317,"zero_seat_probability":0.00135},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":7.5500847560611195,"contest_party_id":"THE_DEMOCRATS","display_name_en":"The Democrats","display_name_he":"הדמוקרטים","expected_seats":9.8586,"forecast_date":"2026-10-27","group_id":"CHANGE_CORE","headline_seats":10,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.99985,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.00015,"p_represented":0.99985,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_democrats","raw_b5_point_pp":7.690148236166573,"seat_q10":7.0,"seat_q90":13.0,"seat_range_display":"7–13","seat_range_high":13,"seat_range_low":7,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":7.550107196574152,"vote_q10_pp":5.689396790867338,"vote_q2_5_pp":4.951165625886197,"vote_q90_pp":9.615512917429072,"vote_q97_5_pp":11.064788491669194,"zero_seat_probability":0.00015},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":3.9503053370669323,"contest_party_id":"RAAM","display_name_en":"Raam","display_name_he":"רע״ם","expected_seats":3.84025,"forecast_date":"2026-10-27","group_id":"ARAB_LISTS","headline_seats":5,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.6683,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.3317,"p_represented":0.6683,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_raam","raw_b5_point_pp":4.023588423398455,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":7.0,"seat_range_display":"0, 4–8","seat_range_high":8,"seat_range_low":4,"seat_range_mode":"ZERO_SEPARATED_CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":3.9501910063829477,"vote_q10_pp":2.454780665210016,"vote_q2_5_pp":1.928617618739401,"vote_q90_pp":5.7072538411067875,"vote_q97_5_pp":7.080799058774291,"zero_seat_probability":0.3317},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":5.64224365367504,"contest_party_id":"HADASH_TAAL_BALAD","display_name_en":"Joint List","display_name_he":"הרשימה המשותפת","expected_seats":7.18935,"forecast_date":"2026-10-27","group_id":"ARAB_LISTS","headline_seats":7,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.9867,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.0133,"p_represented":0.9867,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_joint_list","raw_b5_point_pp":5.746914304041212,"seat_q10":5.0,"seat_q90":10.0,"seat_range_display":"5–10","seat_range_high":10,"seat_range_low":5,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":5.642332060204816,"vote_q10_pp":4.048407874857922,"vote_q2_5_pp":3.4493501540419187,"vote_q90_pp":7.4673356869981955,"vote_q97_5_pp":8.713103113538851,"zero_seat_probability":0.0133},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":1.2207565749966993,"contest_party_id":"BLUE_WHITE","display_name_en":"Blue and White","display_name_he":"כחול לבן","expected_seats":0.18125,"forecast_date":"2026-10-27","group_id":"UNCOMMITTED","headline_seats":0,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.03344999999999998,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.96655,"p_represented":0.03345,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_blue_white","raw_b5_point_pp":1.2434031306023683,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":0.0,"seat_range_display":"0","seat_range_high":null,"seat_range_low":null,"seat_range_mode":"ZERO_ONLY_RARE_REPRESENTATION","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":1.2207316139651545,"vote_q10_pp":0.42112434190913045,"vote_q2_5_pp":0.27070129266050963,"vote_q90_pp":2.289826534715938,"vote_q97_5_pp":3.522702597280109,"zero_seat_probability":0.96655},{"arm":"R","closed_model_point_pp":2.562047576916164,"contest_party_id":"K26_NATIVE_LIST::RESERVISTS_AND_NEW_ECONOMIC_PARTY","display_name_en":"Reservists–Economic","display_name_he":"המילואימניקים והכלכלית","expected_seats":1.30265,"forecast_date":"2026-10-27","group_id":"UNCOMMITTED","headline_seats":0,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.23724999999999996,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.76275,"p_represented":0.23725,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_reservists_economic","raw_b5_point_pp":2.609576751940397,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":5.0,"seat_range_display":"0, 4–8","seat_range_high":8,"seat_range_low":4,"seat_range_mode":"ZERO_SEPARATED_CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":2.5620082601048098,"vote_q10_pp":1.2130600308688555,"vote_q2_5_pp":0.8631188522936633,"vote_q90_pp":4.288566630287193,"vote_q97_5_pp":5.875877883859709,"zero_seat_probability":0.76275},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":17.325179638512996,"contest_party_id":"LIKUD","display_name_en":"Likud","display_name_he":"הליכוד","expected_seats":23.53243302995937,"forecast_date":"2026-10-27","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":24,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":1.0,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.0,"p_represented":1.0,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_likud","raw_b5_point_pp":17.646583309071026,"seat_q10":20.0,"seat_q90":27.0,"seat_range_display":"20–27","seat_range_high":27,"seat_range_low":20,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":17.548612545242676,"vote_q10_pp":15.389204697960851,"vote_q2_5_pp":14.378315654749231,"vote_q90_pp":19.766092097483252,"vote_q97_5_pp":21.11183275875346,"zero_seat_probability":0.0},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":5.674072203137139,"contest_party_id":"SHAS","display_name_en":"Shas","display_name_he":"ש״ס","expected_seats":7.516778767754422,"forecast_date":"2026-10-27","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":8,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.996046155954081,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.003953844045919042,"p_represented":0.996046155954081,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_shas","raw_b5_point_pp":5.779333312756207,"seat_q10":5.0,"seat_q90":10.0,"seat_range_display":"5–10","seat_range_high":10,"seat_range_low":5,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":5.861126342283996,"vote_q10_pp":4.336813745515055,"vote_q2_5_pp":3.7478419763006805,"vote_q90_pp":7.538832788997096,"vote_q97_5_pp":8.612088827216734,"zero_seat_probability":0.003953844045919042},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":5.9112369834026435,"contest_party_id":"UNITED_TORAH_JUDAISM","display_name_en":"United Torah Judaism","display_name_he":"יהדות התורה","expected_seats":7.584200045497962,"forecast_date":"2026-10-27","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":8,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.9975427978661949,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.002457202133805089,"p_represented":0.997542797866195,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_utj","raw_b5_point_pp":6.020897795217872,"seat_q10":6.0,"seat_q90":10.0,"seat_range_display":"6–10","seat_range_high":10,"seat_range_low":6,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":5.912548285306147,"vote_q10_pp":4.467617897211851,"vote_q2_5_pp":3.8710363321377477,"vote_q90_pp":7.467125984882739,"vote_q97_5_pp":8.457232639393617,"zero_seat_probability":0.002457202133805089},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":6.148316043002528,"contest_party_id":"OTZMA_YEHUDIT","display_name_en":"Otzma Yehudit","display_name_he":"עוצמה יהודית","expected_seats":7.873113314832704,"forecast_date":"2026-10-27","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":8,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.9979730116600659,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.002026988339934075,"p_represented":0.997973011660066,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_otzma","raw_b5_point_pp":6.262374966788755,"seat_q10":6.0,"seat_q90":10.0,"seat_range_display":"6–10","seat_range_high":10,"seat_range_low":6,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":6.119860233900249,"vote_q10_pp":4.632748287274904,"vote_q2_5_pp":3.98658782210395,"vote_q90_pp":7.725247151862907,"vote_q97_5_pp":8.79418832400165,"zero_seat_probability":0.002026988339934075},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":4.6553497364986365,"contest_party_id":"K26_NATIVE_LIST::RZP_AND_ZEHUT","display_name_en":"Religious Zionism–Zehut","display_name_he":"הציונות הדתית וזהות","expected_seats":5.707301726395086,"forecast_date":"2026-10-27","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":6,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.9176057252871048,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.08239427471289518,"p_represented":0.9176057252871049,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_religious_zionism_zehut","raw_b5_point_pp":4.741712274969288,"seat_q10":4.0,"seat_q90":8.0,"seat_range_display":"5–8","seat_range_high":8,"seat_range_low":5,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":4.745681993867923,"vote_q10_pp":3.339513177366695,"vote_q2_5_pp":2.68944679872161,"vote_q90_pp":6.329969221124489,"vote_q97_5_pp":7.359845776600653,"zero_seat_probability":0.08239427471289518},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":3.1153946705796183,"contest_party_id":"WINTER_NEW_PARTY","display_name_en":"Amcha Yisrael","display_name_he":"עמך ישראל","expected_seats":1.8427807013019422,"forecast_date":"2026-10-27","group_id":"NETANYAHU_ALIGNED","headline_seats":0,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.35320154417031024,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.6467984558296898,"p_represented":0.35320154417031036,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_amcha_yisrael","raw_b5_point_pp":3.1731891236965937,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":6.0,"seat_range_display":"0, 4–7","seat_range_high":7,"seat_range_low":4,"seat_range_mode":"ZERO_SEPARATED_CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":3.0094530370565917,"vote_q10_pp":1.719042742781599,"vote_q2_5_pp":1.3043893486527678,"vote_q90_pp":4.550907247318186,"vote_q97_5_pp":5.658551905561881,"zero_seat_probability":0.6467984558296898},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":0.5926263449995827,"contest_party_id":"K26_NATIVE_LIST::HAREDI_PUBLIC","display_name_en":"Haredi Public","display_name_he":"הציבור החרדי","expected_seats":0.010116727274300704,"forecast_date":"2026-10-27","group_id":"UNCOMMITTED","headline_seats":0,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.0018153710882391483,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.9981846289117609,"p_represented":0.0018153710882391682,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_haredi_public","raw_b5_point_pp":0.6036203021490281,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":0.0,"seat_range_display":"0","seat_range_high":null,"seat_range_low":null,"seat_range_mode":"ZERO_ONLY_RARE_REPRESENTATION","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":0.5628011609115784,"vote_q10_pp":0.13828043155078854,"vote_q2_5_pp":0.07791933551994316,"vote_q90_pp":1.1875973106318845,"vote_q97_5_pp":1.9826663888427016,"zero_seat_probability":0.9981846289117609},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":9.496255939717082,"contest_party_id":"K26_NATIVE_LIST::BEYAHAD_BENNETT","display_name_en":"Beyachad","display_name_he":"ביחד","expected_seats":12.494377961124037,"forecast_date":"2026-10-27","group_id":"CHANGE_CORE","headline_seats":13,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":1.0,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.0,"p_represented":1.0,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_beyachad","raw_b5_point_pp":9.672423320331067,"seat_q10":10.0,"seat_q90":15.0,"seat_range_display":"10–15","seat_range_high":15,"seat_range_low":10,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":9.489434063941953,"vote_q10_pp":7.618428924680319,"vote_q2_5_pp":6.829565890064624,"vote_q90_pp":11.473935897330636,"vote_q97_5_pp":12.769255483196124,"zero_seat_probability":0.0},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":17.11954298996529,"contest_party_id":"YASHAR_GADI_EISENKOT","display_name_en":"Yashar!","display_name_he":"ישר!","expected_seats":23.047514682436827,"forecast_date":"2026-10-27","group_id":"CHANGE_CORE","headline_seats":23,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":1.0,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.0,"p_represented":1.0,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_yashar","raw_b5_point_pp":17.437131844456562,"seat_q10":20.0,"seat_q90":26.0,"seat_range_display":"20–26","seat_range_high":26,"seat_range_low":20,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":17.19974406181455,"vote_q10_pp":15.21469040034354,"vote_q2_5_pp":14.267713522073834,"vote_q90_pp":19.247810166315492,"vote_q97_5_pp":20.42961247099935,"zero_seat_probability":0.0},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":6.636587551468527,"contest_party_id":"YISRAEL_BEITEINU","display_name_en":"Yisrael Beiteinu","display_name_he":"ישראל ביתנו","expected_seats":8.398085231620811,"forecast_date":"2026-10-27","group_id":"CHANGE_CORE","headline_seats":8,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.9995639922178096,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.00043600778219048293,"p_represented":0.9995639922178096,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_yisrael_beiteinu","raw_b5_point_pp":6.759704520153811,"seat_q10":6.0,"seat_q90":11.0,"seat_range_display":"6–11","seat_range_high":11,"seat_range_low":6,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":6.503932656143167,"vote_q10_pp":4.995553891846096,"vote_q2_5_pp":4.323700033404414,"vote_q90_pp":8.118249613294902,"vote_q97_5_pp":9.220428587581052,"zero_seat_probability":0.00043600778219048293},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":7.5500847560611195,"contest_party_id":"THE_DEMOCRATS","display_name_en":"The Democrats","display_name_he":"הדמוקרטים","expected_seats":9.729754553910468,"forecast_date":"2026-10-27","group_id":"CHANGE_CORE","headline_seats":10,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.9999715836585968,"p_below_legal_threshold":2.8416341403113926e-05,"p_represented":0.999971583658597,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_democrats","raw_b5_point_pp":7.690148236166573,"seat_q10":8.0,"seat_q90":12.0,"seat_range_display":"8–12","seat_range_high":12,"seat_range_low":8,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":7.4718741706415965,"vote_q10_pp":5.882775268776653,"vote_q2_5_pp":5.200896724692201,"vote_q90_pp":9.168110809368567,"vote_q97_5_pp":10.329793837366529,"zero_seat_probability":2.8416341403113926e-05},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":3.9503053370669323,"contest_party_id":"RAAM","display_name_en":"Raam","display_name_he":"רע״ם","expected_seats":3.990954054867935,"forecast_date":"2026-10-27","group_id":"ARAB_LISTS","headline_seats":5,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.716629832706106,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.2833701672938939,"p_represented":0.7166298327061061,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_raam","raw_b5_point_pp":4.023588423398455,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":7.0,"seat_range_display":"4–7","seat_range_high":7,"seat_range_low":4,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":3.9566678621108293,"vote_q10_pp":2.5402920057136864,"vote_q2_5_pp":1.993200365566104,"vote_q90_pp":5.482722334820697,"vote_q97_5_pp":6.597967536125025,"zero_seat_probability":0.2833701672938939},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":5.64224365367504,"contest_party_id":"HADASH_TAAL_BALAD","display_name_en":"Joint List","display_name_he":"הרשימה המשותפת","expected_seats":7.243027452727155,"forecast_date":"2026-10-27","group_id":"ARAB_LISTS","headline_seats":7,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.9948833636476816,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.005116636352318383,"p_represented":0.9948833636476817,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_joint_list","raw_b5_point_pp":5.746914304041212,"seat_q10":5.0,"seat_q90":9.0,"seat_range_display":"5–9","seat_range_high":9,"seat_range_low":5,"seat_range_mode":"CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":5.6674954160349476,"vote_q10_pp":4.245458387820147,"vote_q2_5_pp":3.6737946408311672,"vote_q90_pp":7.242322339112875,"vote_q97_5_pp":8.289067476372042,"zero_seat_probability":0.005116636352318383},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":1.2207565749966993,"contest_party_id":"BLUE_WHITE","display_name_en":"Blue and White","display_name_he":"כחול לבן","expected_seats":0.046588941088786084,"forecast_date":"2026-10-27","group_id":"UNCOMMITTED","headline_seats":0,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.008519115051531578,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.9914808849484684,"p_represented":0.008519115051531724,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_blue_white","raw_b5_point_pp":1.2434031306023683,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":0.0,"seat_range_display":"0","seat_range_high":null,"seat_range_low":null,"seat_range_mode":"ZERO_ONLY_RARE_REPRESENTATION","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":1.1456775325125392,"vote_q10_pp":0.4192274828215543,"vote_q2_5_pp":0.2693076114340471,"vote_q90_pp":2.132521287442949,"vote_q97_5_pp":2.906862192343187,"zero_seat_probability":0.9914808849484684},{"arm":"D","closed_model_point_pp":2.562047576916164,"contest_party_id":"K26_NATIVE_LIST::RESERVISTS_AND_NEW_ECONOMIC_PARTY","display_name_en":"Reservists–Economic","display_name_he":"המילואימניקים והכלכלית","expected_seats":0.9829728092082011,"forecast_date":"2026-10-27","group_id":"UNCOMMITTED","headline_seats":0,"information_cutoff":"2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00","p_above_legal_threshold":0.1900329769394311,"p_below_legal_threshold":0.8099670230605689,"p_represented":0.1900329769394312,"proposal_list_key":"k26_submitted_reservists_economic","raw_b5_point_pp":2.609576751940397,"seat_q10":0.0,"seat_q90":5.0,"seat_range_display":"0, 4–7","seat_range_high":7,"seat_range_low":4,"seat_range_mode":"ZERO_SEPARATED_CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE","snapshot_status":"PRECOMPUTED_FUTURE_PROJECTION_NOT_ISSUED_ON_FORECAST_DATE","vote_mean_pp":2.405090638231262,"vote_q10_pp":1.1921838786359134,"vote_q2_5_pp":0.8517423906969951,"vote_q90_pp":3.93545994299563,"vote_q97_5_pp":5.121203495151649,"zero_seat_probability":0.8099670230605689}],"schema_version":"k26_reader_data_v1","table":"party_forecasts"}
