{ "schema_version": "to120.reader-outputs.v1", "publication_status": "PREVIEW_NOT_ISSUED_OWNER_ACTIVATION_REQUIRED", "public_package": { "public_display_authority": "K26-RD-PUBLIC-DISPLAY-20260927-001", "forecast_sha256": "544cf3ed37a6fa857ab40e6977bd056d42cb430b224f107ed383af9d9b2dc31a", "parent_forecast_sha256": "8a7c71456c4e260fbcb7534298e598447f38fe821899ec17c63324c16de1c152", "current_draw_count": 100000, "download": "/data/k26/2026-09-27/reader/k26_reader_data_2026-09-27.zip", "field_dictionary": "/data/k26/2026-09-27/reader/data_dictionary.json" }, "current_date": "2026-09-27", "election_date": "2026-10-27", "information_cutoff": "2026-09-27T17:25:12+03:00", "source_forecast_sha256": "8a7c71456c4e260fbcb7534298e598447f38fe821899ec17c63324c16de1c152", "notes": { "display_names": "English bloc names in these website summaries match the site labels. Stable bloc IDs and Hebrew names are unchanged. The original reader package preserves the model's source labels.", "status": "Both approaches are publicly displayed with the owner's authorization. Original computation and export-stage status fields are preserved as provenance; they do not describe whether the website has since gone live. Earlier displayed dates are retrospective reconstructions, not forecasts issued on those dates.", "probabilities": "p61 and threshold_probability are fractions from 0 to 1. p61 means at least 61 seats, not government formation. It assumes no untracked other list passes the threshold.", "votes": "vote_mean, vote_low and vote_high are percentages, not fractions.", "seats": "headline_seats allocate the average simulated vote vector. Bloc expected_seats average simulated allocations. Seat ranges can be conditional on representation; zero is shown separately when supplied. See seat_range_mode.", "seat_range_mode": "CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE = 80% range among draws with representation. ZERO_SEPARATED_CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE = zero is a separate possibility plus the represented-draw range. ZERO_ONLY_RARE_REPRESENTATION = the package reports zero only; entry can still have a small nonzero probability.", "poll_counts": "Available poll entries overlap between lanes and do not establish how many polls were used for each party.", "inputs": "These files summarize the displayed results. Download the separate reader package at /data/k26/2026-09-27/reader/k26_reader_data_2026-09-27.zip for poll sources, transformed inputs, per-date inclusion records, detailed outputs and current-day joint simulations.", "draws": "The reader package contains September 27's 100,000 shared simulations, not full draw banks for every earlier date. Vote Share Only (R in source files) uses uniform weight_R; Vote and Seat Fusion (D) uses normalized weight_D. Fusion probabilities require those weights and cannot be reproduced by counting draws equally.", "package_scope": "The original reader tables include unavailable dates and future projections as explicitly labelled. A future projection uses the current information cutoff and is not a forecast issued in advance. CSV empty cells and JSON null mean unknown, not zero. Use input_membership to identify which poll records enter each date and role; appearing in a source table alone does not mean a poll was used.", "rights": "© 2026 Ariel Danieli / אריאל דניאלי. All rights reserved. Commercial use of model inputs or outputs requires explicit prior consent." }, "snapshots": [ { "date": "2026-09-17", "snapshot_status": "RETROSPECTIVE_CAUSAL_RECONSTRUCTION_NOT_ORIGINALLY_ISSUED", "draw_count": 20000, "available_poll_entries": 210, "vote_poll_entries": 65, "seat_poll_entries": 208 }, { "date": "2026-09-18", "snapshot_status": "RETROSPECTIVE_CAUSAL_RECONSTRUCTION_NOT_ORIGINALLY_ISSUED", "draw_count": 20000, "available_poll_entries": 210, "vote_poll_entries": 65, "seat_poll_entries": 208 }, { "date": "2026-09-19", "snapshot_status": "RETROSPECTIVE_CAUSAL_RECONSTRUCTION_NOT_ORIGINALLY_ISSUED", "draw_count": 20000, "available_poll_entries": 210, "vote_poll_entries": 65, "seat_poll_entries": 208 }, { "date": "2026-09-20", "snapshot_status": "RETROSPECTIVE_CAUSAL_RECONSTRUCTION_NOT_ORIGINALLY_ISSUED", "draw_count": 20000, "available_poll_entries": 210, "vote_poll_entries": 65, "seat_poll_entries": 208 }, { "date": "2026-09-21", "snapshot_status": "RETROSPECTIVE_CAUSAL_RECONSTRUCTION_NOT_ORIGINALLY_ISSUED", "draw_count": 20000, "available_poll_entries": 210, "vote_poll_entries": 65, "seat_poll_entries": 208 }, { "date": "2026-09-22", "snapshot_status": "RETROSPECTIVE_CAUSAL_RECONSTRUCTION_NOT_ORIGINALLY_ISSUED", "draw_count": 20000, "available_poll_entries": 210, "vote_poll_entries": 65, "seat_poll_entries": 208 }, { "date": "2026-09-23", "snapshot_status": "RETROSPECTIVE_CAUSAL_RECONSTRUCTION_NOT_ORIGINALLY_ISSUED", "draw_count": 20000, "available_poll_entries": 216, "vote_poll_entries": 69, "seat_poll_entries": 214 }, { "date": "2026-09-24", "snapshot_status": "RETROSPECTIVE_CAUSAL_RECONSTRUCTION_NOT_ORIGINALLY_ISSUED", "draw_count": 20000, "available_poll_entries": 219, "vote_poll_entries": 70, "seat_poll_entries": 217 }, { "date": "2026-09-25", "snapshot_status": "RETROSPECTIVE_CAUSAL_RECONSTRUCTION_NOT_ORIGINALLY_ISSUED", "draw_count": 20000, "available_poll_entries": 222, "vote_poll_entries": 73, "seat_poll_entries": 220 }, { "date": "2026-09-26", "snapshot_status": "RETROSPECTIVE_CAUSAL_RECONSTRUCTION_NOT_ORIGINALLY_ISSUED", "draw_count": 20000, "available_poll_entries": 222, "vote_poll_entries": 73, "seat_poll_entries": 220 }, { "date": "2026-09-27", "snapshot_status": "CURRENT_PREVIEW_NOT_ISSUED", "draw_count": 100000, "available_poll_entries": 222, "vote_poll_entries": 73, "seat_poll_entries": 220 } ], "parties": [ { "date": "2026-09-17", "snapshot_status": "RETROSPECTIVE_CAUSAL_RECONSTRUCTION_NOT_ORIGINALLY_ISSUED", "approach": "vote_share_only", "approach_name": "Vote Share Only", "approach_name_he": "שיעורי הצבעה בלבד", "approach_role": "Public forecast approach", "id": "LIKUD", "headline_seats": 23, "seat_range": "17–30", "seat_range_mode": "CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE", "threshold_probability": 1, "vote_mean": 17.11470192377622, "vote_low": 12.737242390688829, "vote_high": 21.855299643429, "name_en": "Likud", "name_he": "הליכוד" }, { "date": "2026-09-17", "snapshot_status": "RETROSPECTIVE_CAUSAL_RECONSTRUCTION_NOT_ORIGINALLY_ISSUED", "approach": "vote_share_only", "approach_name": "Vote Share Only", "approach_name_he": "שיעורי הצבעה בלבד", "approach_role": "Public forecast approach", "id": "SHAS", "headline_seats": 7, "seat_range": "5–13", "seat_range_mode": "CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE", "threshold_probability": 0.79295, "vote_mean": 5.468260874938102, "vote_low": 2.5826237214181385, "vote_high": 9.11355719812727, "name_en": "Shas", "name_he": "ש״ס" }, { "date": "2026-09-17", "snapshot_status": "RETROSPECTIVE_CAUSAL_RECONSTRUCTION_NOT_ORIGINALLY_ISSUED", "approach": "vote_share_only", "approach_name": "Vote Share Only", "approach_name_he": "שיעורי הצבעה בלבד", "approach_role": "Public forecast approach", "id": "UNITED_TORAH_JUDAISM", "headline_seats": 8, "seat_range": "5–14", "seat_range_mode": "CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE", "threshold_probability": 0.87975, "vote_mean": 6.125698868019145, "vote_low": 3.08280522972388, "vote_high": 9.872223228104291, "name_en": "United Torah Judaism", "name_he": "יהדות התורה" }, { "date": "2026-09-17", "snapshot_status": "RETROSPECTIVE_CAUSAL_RECONSTRUCTION_NOT_ORIGINALLY_ISSUED", "approach": "vote_share_only", "approach_name": "Vote Share Only", "approach_name_he": "שיעורי הצבעה בלבד", "approach_role": "Public forecast approach", "id": "OTZMA_YEHUDIT", "headline_seats": 8, "seat_range": "5–13", "seat_range_mode": "CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE", "threshold_probability": 0.8651, "vote_mean": 5.885713058648368, "vote_low": 2.9982369096026296, "vote_high": 9.408745105438355, "name_en": "Otzma Yehudit", "name_he": "עוצמה יהודית" }, { "date": "2026-09-17", "snapshot_status": "RETROSPECTIVE_CAUSAL_RECONSTRUCTION_NOT_ORIGINALLY_ISSUED", "approach": "vote_share_only", "approach_name": "Vote Share Only", "approach_name_he": "שיעורי הצבעה בלבד", "approach_role": "Public forecast approach", "id": "K26_NATIVE_LIST::RZP_AND_ZEHUT", "headline_seats": 5, "seat_range": "0, 4–12", "seat_range_mode": "ZERO_SEPARATED_CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE", "threshold_probability": 0.5036, "vote_mean": 3.954005129880982, "vote_low": 1.4081096196263687, "vote_high": 7.274791757465818, "name_en": "Religious Zionism–Zehut", "name_he": "הציונות הדתית וזהות" }, { "date": "2026-09-17", "snapshot_status": "RETROSPECTIVE_CAUSAL_RECONSTRUCTION_NOT_ORIGINALLY_ISSUED", "approach": "vote_share_only", "approach_name": "Vote Share Only", "approach_name_he": "שיעורי הצבעה בלבד", "approach_role": "Public forecast approach", "id": "WINTER_NEW_PARTY", "headline_seats": 0, "seat_range": "0, 4–12", "seat_range_mode": "ZERO_SEPARATED_CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE", "threshold_probability": 0.3579, "vote_mean": 3.209962015696712, "vote_low": 0.922209485165247, "vote_high": 6.325674240839576, "name_en": "Amcha Yisrael", "name_he": "עמך ישראל" }, { "date": "2026-09-17", "snapshot_status": "RETROSPECTIVE_CAUSAL_RECONSTRUCTION_NOT_ORIGINALLY_ISSUED", "approach": "vote_share_only", "approach_name": "Vote Share Only", "approach_name_he": "שיעורי הצבעה בלבד", "approach_role": "Public forecast approach", "id": "K26_NATIVE_LIST::HAREDI_PUBLIC", "headline_seats": 0, "seat_range": "0", "seat_range_mode": "ZERO_ONLY_RARE_REPRESENTATION", "threshold_probability": 0.028200000000000003, "vote_mean": 0.5287515232162062, "vote_low": 0.019003408642551865, "vote_high": 1.1947334513852002, "name_en": "Haredi Public", "name_he": "הציבור החרדי" }, { "date": "2026-09-17", "snapshot_status": "RETROSPECTIVE_CAUSAL_RECONSTRUCTION_NOT_ORIGINALLY_ISSUED", "approach": "vote_share_only", "approach_name": "Vote Share Only", "approach_name_he": "שיעורי הצבעה בלבד", "approach_role": "Public forecast approach", "id": "K26_NATIVE_LIST::BEYAHAD_BENNETT", "headline_seats": 13, "seat_range": "8–19", "seat_range_mode": "CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE", "threshold_probability": 0.9997, "vote_mean": 9.946834052549022, "vote_low": 6.281109774545897, "vote_high": 14.230646555712246, "name_en": "Beyachad", "name_he": "ביחד" }, { "date": "2026-09-17", "snapshot_status": "RETROSPECTIVE_CAUSAL_RECONSTRUCTION_NOT_ORIGINALLY_ISSUED", "approach": "vote_share_only", "approach_name": "Vote Share Only", "approach_name_he": "שיעורי הצבעה בלבד", "approach_role": "Public forecast approach", "id": "YASHAR_GADI_EISENKOT", "headline_seats": 24, "seat_range": "18–31", "seat_range_mode": "CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE", "threshold_probability": 1, "vote_mean": 17.641697704489147, "vote_low": 13.070162066721196, "vote_high": 22.542827751085564, "name_en": "Yashar!", "name_he": "ישר!" }, { "date": "2026-09-17", "snapshot_status": "RETROSPECTIVE_CAUSAL_RECONSTRUCTION_NOT_ORIGINALLY_ISSUED", "approach": "vote_share_only", "approach_name": "Vote Share Only", "approach_name_he": "שיעורי הצבעה בלבד", "approach_role": "Public forecast approach", "id": "YISRAEL_BEITEINU", "headline_seats": 9, "seat_range": "5–14", "seat_range_mode": "CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE", "threshold_probability": 0.92435, "vote_mean": 6.569998594481603, "vote_low": 3.4851668058838734, "vote_high": 10.29987014755734, "name_en": "Yisrael Beiteinu", "name_he": "ישראל ביתנו" }, { "date": "2026-09-17", "snapshot_status": "RETROSPECTIVE_CAUSAL_RECONSTRUCTION_NOT_ORIGINALLY_ISSUED", "approach": "vote_share_only", "approach_name": "Vote Share Only", "approach_name_he": "שיעורי הצבעה בלבד", "approach_role": "Public forecast approach", "id": "THE_DEMOCRATS", "headline_seats": 10, "seat_range": "6–16", "seat_range_mode": "CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE", "threshold_probability": 0.96895, "vote_mean": 7.443879920438578, "vote_low": 4.1415062363324004, "vote_high": 11.423010223244711, "name_en": "The Democrats", "name_he": "הדמוקרטים" }, { "date": "2026-09-17", "snapshot_status": "RETROSPECTIVE_CAUSAL_RECONSTRUCTION_NOT_ORIGINALLY_ISSUED", "approach": "vote_share_only", "approach_name": "Vote Share Only", "approach_name_he": "שיעורי הצבעה בלבד", "approach_role": "Public forecast approach", "id": "RAAM", "headline_seats": 5, "seat_range": "0, 4–12", "seat_range_mode": "ZERO_SEPARATED_CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE", "threshold_probability": 0.4557, "vote_mean": 3.698507863609877, "vote_low": 1.2885777741465951, "vote_high": 6.922146960623036, "name_en": "Raam", "name_he": "רע״ם" }, { "date": "2026-09-17", "snapshot_status": "RETROSPECTIVE_CAUSAL_RECONSTRUCTION_NOT_ORIGINALLY_ISSUED", "approach": "vote_share_only", "approach_name": "Vote Share Only", "approach_name_he": "שיעורי הצבעה בלבד", "approach_role": "Public forecast approach", "id": "HADASH_TAAL_BALAD", "headline_seats": 8, "seat_range": "5–13", "seat_range_mode": "CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE", "threshold_probability": 0.82145, "vote_mean": 5.737083490318392, "vote_low": 2.7209868649504387, "vote_high": 9.501828501763697, "name_en": "Joint List", "name_he": "הרשימה המשותפת" }, { "date": "2026-09-17", "snapshot_status": "RETROSPECTIVE_CAUSAL_RECONSTRUCTION_NOT_ORIGINALLY_ISSUED", "approach": "vote_share_only", "approach_name": "Vote Share Only", "approach_name_he": "שיעורי הצבעה בלבד", "approach_role": "Public forecast approach", "id": "BLUE_WHITE", "headline_seats": 0, "seat_range": "0, 4–12", "seat_range_mode": "ZERO_SEPARATED_CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE", "threshold_probability": 0.05889999999999995, "vote_mean": 1.0485009570215, "vote_low": 0.13347172723747902, "vote_high": 2.4066996199237494, "name_en": "Blue and White", "name_he": "כחול לבן" }, { "date": "2026-09-17", "snapshot_status": "RETROSPECTIVE_CAUSAL_RECONSTRUCTION_NOT_ORIGINALLY_ISSUED", "approach": "vote_share_only", "approach_name": "Vote Share Only", "approach_name_he": "שיעורי הצבעה בלבד", "approach_role": "Public forecast approach", "id": "K26_NATIVE_LIST::RESERVISTS_AND_NEW_ECONOMIC_PARTY", "headline_seats": 0, "seat_range": "0, 4–12", "seat_range_mode": "ZERO_SEPARATED_CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE", "threshold_probability": 0.36014999999999997, "vote_mean": 3.226404022916143, "vote_low": 0.9611923177863427, "vote_high": 6.35733984792511, "name_en": "Reservists–Economic", "name_he": "המילואימניקים והכלכלית" }, { "date": "2026-09-17", "snapshot_status": "RETROSPECTIVE_CAUSAL_RECONSTRUCTION_NOT_ORIGINALLY_ISSUED", "approach": "vote_and_seat_fusion", "approach_name": "Vote and Seat Fusion", "approach_name_he": "שילוב שיעורי הצבעה ומנדטים", "approach_role": "Public forecast approach", "id": "LIKUD", "headline_seats": 24, "seat_range": "18–30", "seat_range_mode": "CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE", "threshold_probability": 1, "vote_mean": 17.954473941084935, "vote_low": 13.828860083331719, "vote_high": 22.326996268280027, "name_en": "Likud", "name_he": "הליכוד" }, { "date": "2026-09-17", "snapshot_status": "RETROSPECTIVE_CAUSAL_RECONSTRUCTION_NOT_ORIGINALLY_ISSUED", "approach": "vote_and_seat_fusion", "approach_name": "Vote and Seat Fusion", "approach_name_he": "שילוב שיעורי הצבעה ומנדטים", "approach_role": "Public forecast approach", "id": "SHAS", "headline_seats": 8, "seat_range": "5–12", "seat_range_mode": "CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE", "threshold_probability": 0.9211836721886199, "vote_mean": 5.958784272222317, "vote_low": 3.448057198977894, "vote_high": 8.671948345837519, "name_en": "Shas", "name_he": "ש״ס" }, { "date": "2026-09-17", "snapshot_status": "RETROSPECTIVE_CAUSAL_RECONSTRUCTION_NOT_ORIGINALLY_ISSUED", "approach": "vote_and_seat_fusion", "approach_name": "Vote and Seat Fusion", "approach_name_he": "שילוב שיעורי הצבעה ומנדטים", "approach_role": "Public forecast approach", "id": "UNITED_TORAH_JUDAISM", "headline_seats": 8, "seat_range": "5–11", "seat_range_mode": "CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE", "threshold_probability": 0.9503239398435552, "vote_mean": 6.053680062235995, "vote_low": 3.734219942842664, "vote_high": 8.586117758573108, "name_en": "United Torah Judaism", "name_he": "יהדות התורה" }, { "date": "2026-09-17", "snapshot_status": "RETROSPECTIVE_CAUSAL_RECONSTRUCTION_NOT_ORIGINALLY_ISSUED", "approach": "vote_and_seat_fusion", "approach_name": "Vote and Seat Fusion", "approach_name_he": "שילוב שיעורי הצבעה ומנדטים", "approach_role": "Public forecast approach", "id": "OTZMA_YEHUDIT", "headline_seats": 8, "seat_range": "5–11", "seat_range_mode": "CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE", "threshold_probability": 0.9443671318728492, "vote_mean": 6.014333250291939, "vote_low": 3.688819993482965, "vote_high": 8.482034798706836, "name_en": "Otzma Yehudit", "name_he": "עוצמה יהודית" }, { "date": "2026-09-17", "snapshot_status": "RETROSPECTIVE_CAUSAL_RECONSTRUCTION_NOT_ORIGINALLY_ISSUED", "approach": "vote_and_seat_fusion", "approach_name": "Vote and Seat Fusion", "approach_name_he": "שילוב שיעורי הצבעה ומנדטים", "approach_role": "Public forecast approach", "id": "K26_NATIVE_LIST::RZP_AND_ZEHUT", "headline_seats": 5, "seat_range": "0, 4–10", "seat_range_mode": "ZERO_SEPARATED_CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE", "threshold_probability": 0.6195470415203286, "vote_mean": 4.092498843545378, "vote_low": 1.5987329004504474, "vote_high": 6.818516080590097, "name_en": "Religious Zionism–Zehut", "name_he": "הציונות הדתית וזהות" }, { "date": "2026-09-17", "snapshot_status": "RETROSPECTIVE_CAUSAL_RECONSTRUCTION_NOT_ORIGINALLY_ISSUED", "approach": "vote_and_seat_fusion", "approach_name": "Vote and Seat Fusion", "approach_name_he": "שילוב שיעורי הצבעה ומנדטים", "approach_role": "Public forecast approach", "id": "WINTER_NEW_PARTY", "headline_seats": 0, "seat_range": "0, 4–9", "seat_range_mode": "ZERO_SEPARATED_CONDITIONAL_POSITIVE", "threshold_probability": 0.32599013912035035, "vote_mean": 2.8208093423230403, "vote_low": 0.9038358660386955, "vote_high": 5.123641601784545, "name_en": "Amcha Yisrael", "name_he": "עמך ישראל" }, { "date": "2026-09-17", "snapshot_status": "RETROSPECTIVE_CAUSAL_RECONSTRUCTION_NOT_ORIGINALLY_ISSUED", "approach": "vote_and_seat_fusion", "approach_name": "Vote and Seat Fusion", "approach_name_he": "שילוב שיעורי הצבעה ומנדטים", "approach_role": "Public forecast approach", "id": "K26_NATIVE_LIST::HAREDI_PUBLIC", "headline_seats": 0, "seat_range": "0", "seat_range_mode": "ZERO_ONLY_RARE_REPRESENTATION", "threshold_probability": 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